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Dr. Jack Rasmus will focus on today’s continuing crisis in the U.S. and global economies.
213 Episodes
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Today's show reviews the performance of the US economy the past year. Topics covered include actual inflation, jobs and likely GDP numbers. Special focus on Trump's 2 main economic initiatives: the $5 trillion tax cut package and Trump tariffs offensive. What have been the actual impact of both thus far? Likely impact in 2026 and beyond? Trump monetary policy browbeating the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Why neither corporate cost reduction via tax cuts and interest rate cuts will have much effect on the real economy. Contradictions in 21st century US capitalism that negate stimulative effects of fiscal and monetary policies. Trump record on war spending and social program spending. US Deficits, National Debt, and interest payments 2025. State of AI investing and financial bubbles (tech stocks, gold-silver, cryptos). What's the Trump record on the trade deficit, FDI financial flows, and US dollar.
Today's show focuses on the details and directions for the US Empire revealed in Trump's just released 'National Security Strategy of the USA' document. Is the US Empire re-orienting and restructuring? IF so where? A detailed look and analysis of the document, including its new priority and focus on the Western Hemisphere, a longer term focus on Asia-China-Taiwan, and its criticism of Europe and NATO. The document confirms Trump economic and geopolitical policies to date, where it's going next three years, and predictions previously made on this radio show. The show also reviews key economic and political events of the past week. (Notice: next week's show will focus on our annual review of the US & global economy in 2025).
The latest trends in US financial asset bubbles (cryptos, gold-silver, Stocks, AI) and what's happening in the real US economy 4th quarter: latest consumer spending stats, manufacturing PMIs, GDP forecasts, etc. Trump moves to boost auto and drug company profits. Will the Fed cut rates in December? Real GDP now flat or declining. Show then discusses latest Europe efforts to grab $160B Russian assets to fund Ukraine and why it's failing. Germany's remilitarization and AfD anti-war party's popularization. Latest Trump-Russia negotiations and anti-corruption moves against Zelensky government. Show concludes with US statistics showing US defense spending 2025 in excess of $2 trillion a year and projected to rise another $.5 trillion under Trump by 2027.
Today's show goes into more depth discussion on the topic of financial asset bubbles churning in recent days: Bitcoin, Gold, Stocks, AI as cryptos fall 30% and warnings appear in high places (Dimon, Google, etc) about AI bubble. Hedge funds, auto, credit cards, CRE, private credit, bankruptcies, junk bonds, leveraged loans, etc. in trouble. The show updates latest Ukraine war with Trump's new 28 pt. Plan and Venezuela attack approaches. No invasion a la Vietnam but bombing, regime change, decapitation strikes likely.
How debt and securitization in US property (CRE, etc) is creating classic 2008 bust potential. Financial markets volatility sign of bubble top? Latest data on US real economy. Venezuela as Trump's 3rd War. Will US invade? Likely scenarios next 60 days. Venezuela, Russia, China responses? California-Texas gerrymandering as harbinger of more US democracy decline. Mamdani's NY victory
Four events of the past week as the US economy slides to recession: Fed cuts rate 2nd time; Won't any more until spring 2026. Govt shutdown will go longer. Jobs picture is much worse than it appears as more companies announce mass layoffs. Financial asset bubbles (S&P, gold, cryptos) continue volatility. Trump's token trade deals with China and So. Korea
Today's show discusses the Four financial bubbles now growing same time: Gold prices doubled last18 months. Bitcoin up 160%+. S&P, Dow, Nasdaq stock markets up more than 50%. What's driving it? AI, US sanctions, -10% fall of the US dollar, and global economic slowdown. Show explains AI boom and stocks surge due to speculative investing in just 7 largest Tech corps. AI boom now 17X larger than 2000 Internet boom. AI responsible for 80% of stock markets surge. Tech investment 90% of 2025 first half US GDP. Take away AI and US economy, first half 2025 GDP grows only 0.1%. When will any of the four bubbles burst? Will any one take down the other three?
Consumer spending = 2/3s US economy but now hitting a wall. After tax wages down 50% in 2025 from 2024. Botton 1/3 households income gains lowest since 2016. Top 10% households (>$250k/yr) now account for 49% of all consumer spending. Will worsen as unemployment surges, inflation resumes, and $1T in health ACA & Medicaid subsidies for 22.4m ends. Why Fed 0.25% token rate cut won't help. Show next discusses how US presidents become multimillionaires after they leave office. And why Trump & the Empire now shifting tariff and sanctions policies toward India and the BRICS. (Next week: what's the Empire's 'Clean Break' policy shift recommendations about?)
Today's show discusses several economic reports indicating US economy is entering a period of instability. Labor Dept. reports 911,000 fewer jobs were created March 24-March 25 (before summer jobs crash) than were reported by its monthly jobs reports; Consumer prices rising again since April (especially services); US Census Bureau reports household real incomes (averages and median) have not changed since 2019 except for the wealthiest 5% households; US poverty levels back up to 2019 levels; 27 million still without any health insurance (before Trump cuts to Medicaid and ACA take effect). The show also comments on the popular uprising occurring in France (as Europe starts cutting social benefits to pay for military expansions and Ukraine). And concludes with what's behind the media hype that Russia has attacked Poland with drones.
Latest jobs report shows Employment is no longer a 'lagging' indicator. Summer jobs (last 3 mos) virtually stagnant at 12k per mo. Total unemployment 8.1% officially (U-6). Inflation higher than 2.7% official number (4%) and real wages barely growing 1-1.5% when 50m part time/temp/gig workers included. Review of Europe's economy shows major Europe economies now contracting or stagnant (Germany, UK, France). Entire EU area GDP stalled at 0.1% (officially and actually contracting). Europe trade head says EU can't afford to buy $750 billion of US oil and gas per recent US-EU trade deal; US producers say can't drill that much as well. What next for Trump's US-EU trade deal? Main reason why Trump has sent US naval taskforce to Venezuela.
US Mainstream Media and politicians keep saying US 'defense' spending annual is about $850 billion. Why that's just an initial budget proposal and just for Pentagon spending. Today's show shows what US annual actual defense (e.g. war) spending is $2 trillion a year. The show then reviews the condition of the USA and EU economies and why GDPs are much lower than reported. A quick review of emerging global conflicts is also reported in Venezuela, Armenia-Iran, India, etc.
Why Trump is now stacking the Federal Reserve bank's ranks of 7 Governors and threatening Fed chair Powell to force lower Fed interest rates. Why rates will start lowering in September. Why US monetary policy has been broken since 2008 due to changes in 21st century capitalism. The second half of the show discusses Texas and California's pissing match to further gerrymander the US House of Representatives which is already 90% non-competitive. The show discusses why the latest bout of gerrymandering is only part of a bigger picture of decline of US democratic institutions and practices since 2000. Concluding the show, what are the main takeaways of Trump's meetings last week with Putin in Alaska and with European leaders and Zelensky in Washington last Monday?
Today's show addresses key strategic questions in the Ukraine war post-Alaska Trump-Putin meeting: What are the strategic objectives of Trump, Putin, and Ukraine-Europe in the wake of the Putin-Trump meeting? Why are the US neocons+Europe+Zelensky opposed to any compromise settlement to the war? Who are the Neocons (Deep State) enabling the Europe-Zelensky opposition to ending the war? Why did Trump cancel his draconian sanctions (due Aug 8) and shift from 'ceasefire first' to a compromise settlement with Russia and a general 'peace deal'? What's the Europe strategy now? Putin's? Dr. Rasmus also revisits his early 2025 prediction that the Ukraine army will begin to collapse along several fronts by November 2025 due to insufficient reserves and multiple Russian tactical encirclements.
Today's show discusses what's behind the announcement that Trump and Putin will meet next friday in Alaska. Will it mean the beginning of the end of the Ukraine War? Why not. Why Trump sent his envoy, Witkoff, to Moscow to meet with Putin for 3 hrs last week. What will Zelensky, the Europeans and US neocons—all who want war to continue—will now do. Also discussed: Trump's phony corporate & foreign govt announcements they'll invest trillions in US economy + Israel's announcement it will occupy all of GAZA + US raises bounty on head of Maduro, Venezuela'ls president Maduro to $50 million. (for print version analysis of the Trump-Putin meeting read my article of same title on my blog, http://jackrasmus.com)
Today's show dives into Trump's latest multi-country tariff war. What's the latest for August, a critical month. Latest Japan & EU deals as 'templates'. Trump's phony announcement of both countries to invest $17 trillion in USA. Political tariffs attack on India, Brazil and BRICS. Russia 100%. Trump's retreat on China. What's up with Mexico & Canada? Key dates of August 8, 12. Second half of show discusses latest US GDP numbers for April-June. Why US growth is NOT 3% but closer to 1% and the US economy is sliding toward stagnation or even recession. Why Trump's Big Bill on Taxes and Tariffs are a drag on US economic growth.
Today's show discusses recent 'flash points' of the past week in US and geopolitical developments. Trump's tariffs policy revenue and political objectives. Why DNI director Tulsi Gabbard resurrected the Russiagate affair and targeted Obama. Why German Chancellor Merz is now Europe's biggest war hawk. Why Israel and Turkey are facing off over who runs Damascus. How Zelensky is maneuvering with the west to stay in office and continue the war. Why Trump's foreign policy shifts are really about restoring the American military and the Empire. Why the 2020s are not the 1980s.
Today's show discusses Trump's just passed $5 trillion tax cut. The four big lies about the Trump cuts are debunked: why the cuts won't 'pay for themselves'; why the total is at least $5 trillion+ and not the official $3 trillion estimate reported by the media; why the cuts won't add 1-2% to GDP or raise wages and create jobs as the govt claims; and why they'll result in deficits and debt over the coming decade far more than the $3.3 trillion the Trump administration and mainstream media are telling us. The show summarizes the $22 trillion taxes cut from 2001 to 2025 by presidents Bush, Obama, Biden and Trump, and how that's resulted in US budget deficits now averaging $2 trillion a year, a $38 trillion US national debt, and interest payments of more than $1 trillion/yr paid to wealthy US and foreign bondholders of that debt. Why Trump's tax cuts represent a continuation of Neoliberal fiscal policy on steroids. (For a published article on this subject, go to Jack Rasmus's blog at http://jackrasmus.com or to Counterpunch, LA Progressive or Z blogs).
Today's show picks up the discussion of last week on 'How US Goes to War' and comments on the Trump bombing of Iran last Friday. (For a print analysis of the bombing event read my recently published article, 'Trump's Forever War' on my blog, http://jackrasmus.com or on Counterpunch, LA Progressive, Z network and other sites). Today's show discusses Trump's tax bill, its real dimensions and why it will accelerate deficits, debt, and the fiscal crisis of the US imperial state, followed by what's behind Trump's bombing of Iran and why that war has just begun. The show concludes with further sharing of themes and analysis in my forthcoming book, 'Twilight of American Imperialism', Clarity Press, out later this year.
As Trump prepares the USA to directly attack Iran on behalf of Israel, it is clear he's repeating a pattern of past US decisions to go to war in recent decades. Today's show is based on my recent published article by the same title, available on my blog, http://jackrasmus.com and elsewhere in Counterpunch, LA Progressive, etc. How AMerica goes to war is about planning months before pulling the trigger; lining up political support and military assets, engaging in negotiations as a tactic to lull the opposition into thinking a deal is possible when it isn't, creating an excuse and even false flag event to precipitate and justify the attack, and once the attack has occurred pursuing the real objective of regime change. The show reviews US war events from Vietnam to the Iraq wars, the small attacks in the '80s and '90s on Grenada, Panama, Serbia, what happened in Ukraine, and the preparations for war with Iran by the US and Trump on behalf of Israel. Why Trump won't attack this weekend as originally planned and says two more weeks. Consequences if US bombing fails and regime change, the real goal, is not achieved.
Today's show focuses on yesterday's Israel attack on Iran. Four key points about the escalation: 1) Netanyahu scuttles US-Iran negotiations 2) attack was not just to destroy Iranian nuclear weapons development but to decapitate Iran govt and military, create instability and possible regime change 3) Planning has occurred for months with US assistance and US knew of, and likely assisted, Israel in the attack 4) US neocons, with Trump support, continue to run US middle east policy. What will Iran do next? What about Iran-Russia mutual defense agreement recently signed? What will be the response of China? Other BRICS? Regional arab states? More to come. Report on recent EU new secondary sanctions on countries buying Russia oil and EU price-cap sanction lowered to $35/barrel. Why it didn't work at $60 and won't again
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Truly outstanding Episode and a must hear Episode to understand what is going on and what is coming. The 3 body problem = Economic, Politics and Covid. And the man behind it.
Great podcast about true state of US politics and economics.