Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work

After 138 episodes and almost four years to the day since we recorded our first one, Will and Richard have decided to take a short break. We do plan to continue Bubble Trouble, and we are not short of bubbles that are causing trouble, but we want to take time to recharge and reflect on how we can make the show better than ever. We hope you’ll look back through the archives as there are so many episodes that are every bit as relevant today as they were in 2021 when we started. We’ll have word soon on when you can expect new episodes, but thanks so much for listening. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Who doesn’t like to talk about Twitter and Tweets? Word of mouth (or tweet) is the secret sauce of its success. But has it ever been successful? And if it hasn’t, how do you gauge the impact of Elon Musk’s shock therapy over the past two years? Journalist Kurt Wagner joins to share his deep dive profile of the tortured history of Twitter. [Repeat from May, 2024]For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)This episode of Bubble Trouble features a conversation with Bloomberg journalist Kurt Wagner, author of 'Battle for the Bird,' a book about Twitter's tumultuous history and evolution, particularly under Elon Musk's ownership. The hosts, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, delve into Twitter’s origins, its struggle to monetize effectively compared to giants like Meta, and the significant influence of Jack Dorsey’s leadership style on the platform's direction. They discuss the platform's missed opportunities, such as Vine and Periscope, and how it became a place where 'good ideas go to die.' The discussion also covers Musk's takeover, his attempts to transform Twitter into 'X', and the challenges of balancing free speech with the need for content moderation and advertiser appeal. Wagner shares insights on the potential future of 'X', the impact of Musk's leadership on the platform's advertising and user engagement, and the skepticism surrounding the 'everything app' concept Musk envisions.00:00 Introduction01:02 Part One01:02 Deep Dive with Kurt Wagner: The Story of Twitter02:36 The Origins and Evolution of Twitter06:20 Twitter's User Base and Business Model Explored09:10 The Challenges of Twitter's Business Model14:10 Board Dynamics and Google's Influence on Twitter18:03 Extravagant Spending and Corporate Culture at Twitter21:13 Reflections on Twitter's Stock Performance23:47 The Almost Disney-Twitter Deal: A Glimpse into Corporate Negotiations24:29 Twitter's Quest for a Savior and Its Struggle for Independence25:53 Missed Opportunities: The Story of Vine and Periscope27:27 Part Two27:27 Transition to Part Two: The Elon Musk Era at Twitter27:49 The Challenges of Rebranding Twitter to X and Musk's Controversial Leadership28:32 The Impact of Elon Musk's Actions on Twitter's Ad Revenue and Brand Safety36:52 The Struggle with Bots and Spam: Has It Gotten Worse?40:06 Free Speech Under Musk: A Double-Edged Sword44:26 The Everything App Ambition: A Skeptical View46:33 Closing Thoughts and Acknowledgements47:01 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week let’s settle back to our sofas, grab our remote controls and work out what to watch with Doug Shapiro, among the most prominent voices in the world of television and its tech disrupters. His clear and concise work, all available to watch and read on his website is the go to for thousands.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts delve into the intricacies of media disruption with Doug Shapiro, a prominent voice in TV, economics, and tech. Celebrating over a century of their show's success, they explore topics such as the supply and demand curve changes, the potential of AI in content creation, and the future of media companies amidst technological advancements. Shapiro offers insights into the tectonic shifts affecting the industry, from the rise of new media over traditional formats to the economic implications of infinite content in a world of fixed demand. The discussion also touches on intellectual property, the ethics surrounding AI, and the challenges faced by incumbents in adapting to rapid innovation.00:00 Introduction00:42 Part One00:49 Guest Introduction: Doug Shapiro01:12 Doug Shapiro's Career Journey02:12 The Evolution of Media Consumption03:50 Supply and Demand in Media07:19 Generative AI and Content Creation10:32 The Future of Media Distribution23:09 The Creator Economy and Power Laws27:13 Part Two27:30 Hollywood vs. Big Tech30:00 AI's Impact on Hollywood: A Double-Edged Sword30:44 Disruption in the Entertainment Industry31:23 The Future of High-End Content32:06 AI as a Productivity Tool in Hollywood32:46 The Rise of AI-Enabled Studios33:43 Introducing Sora: The Future of Content Creation35:14 The Turing Test in Video Content38:22 Local Content vs. Global Tent Poles40:21 The Copyright Conundrum41:56 The Dirty Deal: Media and Tech Collusion48:06 The Fair Use Debate50:59 Disruption is Hard: Lessons from Netflix54:22 Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook55:42 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page return with guest Dror Poleg, an expert in real estate and economic history. They discuss the volatility expected in 2025, reflections on the work-from-home trend, and the dynamic interplay between geopolitics and everyday life. With insights into real estate bubbles, economic predictions, and the evolving nature of productivity, Dror offers a deep dive into how technological advancements shape our physical and economic world. The conversation also covers topics such as the challenges in the housing market, defense spending, AI investment, and the impact of geopolitical shifts. This episode is packed with thought-provoking discussions and forecasts for the near future.00:00 00:00 Introduction00:52 Part One01:00 Guest Introduction03:34 Real Estate Market Insights06:15 Challenges in Urban Development11:46 Rethinking Productivity and Inequality19:38 Future of Work and Education24:06 The Flaw of GDP and Productivity24:23 Discussing the Book: Mismatch Between Economy and World26:31 Part Two26:49 Encouraging Success and Taxing It28:47 Innovation and Public Investment Funds33:33 US Government and Defense Spending43:28 AI and the Future of Compute46:48 Closing Thoughts and Upcoming Book49:54 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week we get into portfolio theory, or lack of, as for many the rush to big tech and wilful ignorance of everything else Wall Street has to offer seems to be the rule as opposed to the exception. Why is that, and is it sustainable? [Repeat from February, 2024]For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)The Magnificent Seven: Unpacking the Impact of Big US Tech StocksIn this episode, Richard Kramer and Will Page, analysts specializing in financial markets, discuss the 'Magnificent Seven', a term referring to the big US tech companies and their significant market impact. Kramer eloquently illustrates the concentration of wealth within these tech giants and their extensive media coverage, which contributes to their continual growth. They discuss the concept of long tail distributions and how it correlates with a constraint in attention leading to invested interest in just a few companies. They scrutinize the implications of concentrated wealth and potential future industry shifts, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies, despite the allure of being swept up in booming tech sectors.00:01 Introduction00:48 Part One00:48 The Role of Big US Tech in Portfolio Theory03:30 The Magnificent Seven: Who Are They?07:28 The Long Tail Effect in Financial Markets22:56 The Investment Thesis: Backing Big Tech23:13 Part Two23:25 The Geographic Disparity in Big Tech38:09 Smoke Signals: Indicators of Market Shifts41:41 Conclusion: The Future of Big Tech Investments41:54 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We have had over 30 episodes of Bubble Trouble this year, and had some real highlights along with a mad world we are living in. And now after a predictions show with Benedict Evans last week, we move on to our own look back to highlight the must-listen shows of 2024 and turn to the top troubles with bubbles to watch out for in 2025.Will’s favorite shows of 2024:Law Without Lawyers: A Conversation with Damien RiehlThe Meltdown of Credit Suisse w/ Duncan MavinYou Can't Lead If You Don't Know Where You're GoingRichards favorite shows of 2024:AI Supremacy and Ethical Dilemmas: A Conversation with Parmy OlsonKill the Chicken to Scare The Monkey with guest Linda YuehThe Meltdown of Credit Suisse w/ Duncan MavinFiscal Drag QueenThames Water gets Whacked with guest Feargal SharkeyWill’s folder of research reports: HEREFor more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Bubble Trouble Year-End Review: Top Episodes and Predictions for 202500:00 Introduction and Year in Review00:33 Part One00:41 Predictions and Highlights of 202401:16 Memorable Moments and Listener Feedback02:44 Bronze Medal: Bill Raduchel’s Insight04:58 Silver Medal: Duncan Maven and Credit Suisse07:43 Gold Medal: Law Without Lawyers11:09 Richard's Oscar Categories13:48 Social Impact: Fergal Sharky on Water Management17:36 Market Bubbles and Fiscal Policies22:13 Closing Thoughts and Part Two Teaser22:38 Part Two22:59 Predictions and Skepticism23:32 AI and the Rationalization of Apps24:47 Winners and Losers in the AI Era25:57 The Future of Review Platforms28:28 Emerging Companies to Watch35:13 Market Trends and Volatility40:36 The Crisis in Journalism44:40 AI Hype vs. Reality45:57 Closing Thoughts and Reflections47:14 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Back by popular demand, returning guest Benedict Evans to help us work out where we’ll be a year from now. This is our first predictions show, and Benedict has been brave enough to lead from the front with his latest presentation AI Eats the World. Will it? And if it does, what sort of indigestion will it bring? We double down on what the next twelve months will bring given the avalanche of “events-dear-boy-events” we’ve witnessed in the last twelve. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Join hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page in one of the final episodes of 2024 as they team up with independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist and author Will Page, alongside returning guest Benedict Evans. In this prediction-packed episode, the trio dives into the year-long buzz around AI. They dissect the concept of 'AI Eats the World' — exploring if AI truly has the transformative power it's touted to have and what potential pitfalls could arise. From decoding AI trends to the proliferation of machine learning across industries, this episode provides a candid discussion on the future of AI, its impacts, and the upcoming challenges. Plus, they explore legal implications, the role of consultancy giants like Accenture in the AI wave, and the future landscape of professions impacted by AI innovations. Don't miss this insightful deep dive into what technology and AI advancements might hold for the year ahead.00:00 Introduction and Show Setup00:46 Part One01:19 Understanding AI and Machine Learning03:46 AI's Practical Applications07:06 AI in the Legal Profession15:58 Jevons Paradox and AI's Future Impact21:01  Part Two25:01 Creative Brainstorming with AI25:11 The Value of Unique Perspectives25:53 Skepticism Towards Big Consultancies26:55 Accenture's Role in AI28:33 Generative AI in Business31:37 The Democratization of AI34:02 AI's Impact on Various Industries41:19 Future of AI in Media and Entertainment45:51 Closing Thoughts and Reflections46:38 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

When markets get fooled, stocks get …well, WHACKED, to quote a famous Kramerism. Our audience deserves to know more about volatility - for all the PhDs, MBAs and CFAs working on Wall Street, for all the compliance rules and regulations, why is it that a stock can go from hero to zero so quickly? Why is stability in itself destabilizing? [Repeat from May, 2024]For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Understanding Market Volatility: The Seven Deadly Sins That Get Stocks WhackedIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosted by independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, the duo delves into the intricacies of stock market volatility and the factors that lead to significant drops in stock values, often referred to as getting 'whacked.' They explore why financial markets remain volatile despite compliance rules and thorough analysis by Wall Street's experts. Using recent examples like Duolingo and Double Verify, they highlight how sentiment, market expectations, and artificial intelligence fears influence stock performance. They introduce the concept of the seven deadly sins—ranging from expectations management to fake it till you make it—that companies and analysts commit, causing stocks to tank. The discussion covers essential themes like the role of credibility, influence of peer performance, external market factors, and the impact of fear and greed. They also touch on larger market dynamics, such as the dominance of tech giants and the influence of algorithmic trading. The episode is both an educational dive into market mechanics and a cautionary tale for investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding broader market sentiments and the potential pitfalls of speculative trading.00:00 Introduction01:18 Part One02:30 Recent Examples of Stocks Getting Whacked06:08 The Role of Expectations in Market Behavior10:53 Credibility and Its Impact on Stocks16:17 The Influence of Peer Groups and Market Share18:19 Mathematical Models and Black Swans23:09 Part Two24:15 The Sheer Size of Companies and Market Impact25:13 Big Companies and Revenue Growth Challenges26:33 Market Dynamics and Money Managers27:04 Thought Experiment: Market Crowding28:53 Taxing Market Capitalization34:18 Fear and Greed in Financial Markets40:11 Unprofitable IPOs and Market Distortions42:47 Seven Deadly Sins of Stock Trading46:22 Conclusion and Final Thoughts46:53 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In the last couple episodes, we've looked at the property market, we've looked at the demise of Credit Suisse, but now we're gonna go one-on-one with Will Page, talking about his latest work: How much is copyright worth and the way in which music is having its own, getting back at cinema.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.comIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and economist Will Page dive into the fascinating world of music copyright. They explore the market value, currently pegged at $45.5 billion, and discuss what this number entails, including the roles of record labels, collecting societies, and publishers. They delve deep into the growing significance of vinyl records, the influence of streaming services, and the striking impact of globalization on music trade flows. Additionally, they discuss new market opportunities, the potential for further growth, and the future of direct artist-to-fan engagements. Join the conversation to understand the changing dynamics of the music industry and the economic forces shaping it.00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble00:35 Part One01:10 Exploring the Value of Copyright02:23 The Economics of Music Copyright07:12 Streaming vs. Cinema: A Shift in Consumption17:08 The Vinyl Revival19:31 Part Two19:31 Global Impact of Music Copyright22:32 The Global Impact of Reggaeton22:47 Economic Disparities in Music Streaming23:25 The Big Mac Index and Media Trade24:50 K-Pop's Global Dominance26:20 The Role of Government in Music Industry Success28:36 Canada's Multicultural Music Scene30:06 The Rise of Punjabi-Canadian Artists33:12 The Future of Music Copyright and Streaming37:41 Direct Artist-to-Fan Relationships40:50 Emerging Markets and the Future of Copyright41:51 Conclusion and Future Episodes Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we are going deep with a real creator. No, not one of the avatars of AI influencers in the creator economy, but someone who builds things that take 20 years to complete, Roger Madelin, CBE, the name behind the scenes in making London's Kings Cross a reality.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Transformation and Challenges with King's Cross Visionary Roger MadelineIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into urban development with Roger Madelin, CBE. Known for his transformative work at London's King's Cross, Roger shares insights on large-scale urban projects, navigating economic cycles, and the intricacies of aligning diverse stakeholders' interests. The discussion also covers the controversial HS2 rail project, the importance of integrating cultural elements in city planning, and the current political landscape influencing housing policies. Roger emphasizes the need for a strong vision, the significance of public spaces, and the necessity of balancing private and public sector efforts to create vibrant, inclusive urban environments.00:00 Introduction00:48 Part One02:16 Transforming King's Cross03:56 Reflecting on Urban Development05:48 The Impact of Smartening Up Train Stations08:45 Navigating Economic Cycles in Urban Projects15:20 The Future of Workspaces Post-COVID20:09 Balancing Luxury and Community in Property Development24:48 Preview of Part Two: HS2 and Urban Planning Challenges25:34 Part Two26:50 Challenges of High-Speed Rail in the UK29:43 The Flaws in High-Speed Two's Business Case32:08 Comparing High-Speed One and High-Speed Two34:00 The Importance of Comfort Over Speed36:03 The Role of Arts and Culture in City Development42:09 Political and Economic Challenges in Urban Development52:24 Closing Remarks and Reflections53:17 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On Bubble Trouble, we are never short of subject matter: from the metaverse, NFTs and Chinese real estate, to Silicon Valley Bank and er… that small issue of a former global powerhouse Credit Suisse. Remember them? Well our guest, Duncan Mavin, knows their story better than anyone, and he’s documented them in the wonderfully titled Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze and the Collapse of Credit Suisse. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Credit Suisse: A Rolling Crisis in Banking ScandalsIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer discuss the collapse of Credit Suisse with journalist and author Duncan Maven. They delve into Maven's book 'Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze, and the Collapse of Credit Suisse,' exploring the myriad of crises that plagued the bank. They touch on scandals ranging from rogue traders and sanctions busting to laundering Nazi gold and funding corrupt projects in Mozambique. The conversation also highlights the rapid acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS over a tense and decisive weekend. Duncan Maven provides insights into the bank’s culture, the broader implications for the banking sector, and why people should care about the ethics in banking. The episode concludes with the discussion of warning signs (or smoke signals) that indicate deeper issues within financial institutions.00:00 Introduction01:00 Part One01:09 Guest Introduction: Duncan Maven02:31 The Rise and Fall of Credit Suisse03:32 The Impact of White Collar Crime05:08 Cultural Issues at Credit Suisse09:56 Historical Context of Swiss Banking15:21 The Mozambique Scandal19:49 The Role of Social Media in Credit Suisse's Collapse23:00 The Bulgarian Mafia and Credit Suisse Scandal23:47 Part Two23:54 The Collapse of Credit Suisse24:32 UBS Absorbs Credit Suisse26:41 The Aftermath and Lingering Scandals28:57 The Swiss Financial Crisis32:58 The Future of Swiss Banking40:05 Reception of the Book42:08 Smoke Signals and Final Thoughts46:37 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, we’re talking taxes. Don’t switch off, don’t fall asleep and please don’t hire an accountant as the next 45 minutes will defy the laws of gravity and make taxes sexy. Or make saxes testy…  [Repeat from March, 2024.]Mentioned in today’s show: Barbarians at the Gate: https://youtu.be/Z3HiONtjZSM?si=xZ64zb46sYIfSs5ZFor more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the complex world of taxes with humor and depth. They discuss the UK's tax system, the incentives it creates, and its contribution to economic inequalities. The duo delves into the problems of the tax code, including issues surrounding tax avoidance by the wealthy, lack of public sector productivity improvements, and the inefficiencies within the HMRC. Kramer and Page critique the approach of privatizing public utilities and the potential problems with private equity in the public sector. They also touch on broader issues like the lack of investment in tax authority systems and propose using tax policies for positive changes, like encouraging the shift from petrol to electric cars in Denmark. Through their insightful conversation, Kramer and Page aim to demystify taxes and highlight their significant impact on society.00:00 Introduction00:46 Part One00:51 The UK's Budget Week and Tax System Insights01:48 Tax Evasion vs. Public Sector Productivity02:46 The Inequality of Tax Codes: A Global Issue04:03 Tax System Flaws and Their Impact on Society07:22 VAT: The Taxpayer as Tax Collector11:31 The Complexity of National Insurance13:43 Simplifying Tax Systems: A Call for Transparency16:28 Private Equity and Tax Systems: A New Challenge22:39 Decoding the Fiscal Drag Queen23:00 The Political Divide on Taxation23:21 Economic Lecture: Tax Burden and Growth25:07 The Impact of Fiscal Drag on Tax Bands26:15 The Surprising Windfall from Fiscal Drag27:22 Part Two27:45 Exploring the World of Private Equity28:51 The Tax Loopholes Fueling Private Equity32:24 The Potential Bubble in Public Utilities36:26 The Disconnect Between Tax Policy and Reality43:58 A Positive Tax Example from Denmark47:28 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week we welcome Mark Mulligan of MIDiA Research who has had a ringside seat for years and years of bubbles, be it the creator economy, NFTs or AI music, or just everyone claiming they are gaining market share at the same time. He is the founder and driving force behind the tiny little company that an entire industry looks to as the source of truth.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by Mark Mulligan, a leading music industry analyst and founder of MIDiA Research. They delve into the intricate world of the music industry, discussing the evolution from digital streaming to the rise of new phenomena such as NFTs and AI in music. The trio explores the concept of bifurcation in markets and the distinction between high-end experiences versus bargain deals within the industry. The conversation also touches on the significant cultural shifts, the role of trade associations, and the future of personalized music experiences. Despite the optimism around technology, the hosts remain critical of mainstream narratives, emphasizing the importance of genuine innovation and realistic market assessments. This insightful and provocative discussion is a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of music, technology, and finance.00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble01:02 Welcoming Special Guest Mark Mulligan01:26 Mark Mulligan's Background and Insights02:34 The Evolution of Music Supply04:20 The Democratization of Music Creation06:13 AI and the Future of Music12:16 Fragmentation and Hyper-Targeting in Media13:40 The Role of Superstars and Long Tail Creators19:20 Streaming Platforms: Carnivores vs. Herbivores25:45 TikTok's Influence on the Music Industry27:33 Part Two28:38 Diving into the Music Industry's Hype30:08 Constructive Criticism in Emerging Technologies30:39 The Metaverse and NFTs: A Skeptical View31:28 Frameworks for Assessing New Technologies33:10 The Future of Digital Fandom35:15 Bifurcation in the Market43:07 Pendulum Swings in Technology Adoption44:54 Lessons from the Aviation Industry46:29 Final Thoughts and Predictions52:00 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Podcasts are having another moment:  Trump on Joe Rogan, Kamala on Call Her Daddy. New media is overtaking old media in audience and influence. Back in early 2023, we welcomed guest Lauren Jarvis, who helped bring Rogan to Spotify and growing podcasts into the medium we see today. Given this week’s election mania, we bring Lauren back to make sense of it all. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)The Podcast Boom: Analyzing Influence and the Future of MediaIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the evolving landscape of the podcast industry with guest Lauren Jarvis. They discuss the resurgence of podcasts as a significant media platform, touching on notable examples like Joe Rogan's recent Trump interview. The conversation also covers the economic potential of podcasts, their role in reaching new audiences, and the gamification of learning as a growing trend in tech. Jarvis shares insights on the integration of technology into daily life and the future of media consumption.00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble00:59 Part One02:52 Political Influence of Podcasts05:26 Audience Engagement and Monetization09:09 The Future of Media Consumption22:11 Part Two22:13 Tech Trends and Predictions37:46 AI and Data Utilization46:12 Closing Thoughts and Farewell48:33 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Repeat from November, 2023.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.comIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in an in-depth discussion with Alex Kantrowitz, veteran tech journalist and founder of Big Technology. The discussion provides insights on some of the issues and dilemmas facing Twitter (now called X) under the leadership of Elon Musk. Kantrowitz offers valuable perspectives on the changing dynamics in the tech world, touching on the rise of Reddit, problems with 'Threads', and the impact of new leadership on Twitter's performance and brand value. The conversation also delves into the principle of 'Effective Altruism' prevalent in Silicon Valley and what it signifies about tech leadership. Analysis of recent data reveals Twitter's shrinking user base and engagement, though it remains a highly popular app. The episode wraps with Kantrowitz sharing about his newsletter 'Big Technology', and its recent features.00:00 Introduction and Welcome00:46 Part One00:52 Interview with Tech Journalist Alex Kantrowicz02:17 Exploring Twitter's History and Business Model06:52 Twitter's Influence and Impact on Journalism07:32 The Decline of Traditional Media and the Rise of Digital Platforms08:45 Twitter's Role in the Attention Economy09:54 Twitter's Popularity and Influence Despite Declining Numbers15:06 Analyzing Twitter's User Data and Trends28:47 Part Two32:37 The Future of Twitter: Cyclical or Structural Decline?36:26 Twitter's Competition: Reddit and Threads36:34 The Struggles of Threads36:59 The Power of Network Effects38:17 The Limitations of Threads39:48 The Rise of Reddit40:04 The Role of Reddit in the Social Media Landscape40:54 The Impact of Pocket App on Twitter41:25 The Irrelevance of Threads and the Power of Meta44:20 The Challenges Twitter Faces45:50 Potential Strategies to Save Twitter49:32 The Future of Twitter Under Musk's Leadership54:51 The Role of Effective Altruism in Tech Companies58:57 The Danger of Singular Solutions59:27 The Value of Comments and the Future of Twitter01:01:38 Closing Remarks and Promotion of Big Technology01:02:34 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The past week has seen US stocks–and gold, btw–rally to record highs. This week, we’re going to apply the magnifying glass to the ‘Magnificent Seven’ that are driving this rally and ask what happens when the sheer size of these US corporations, or corporate value, starts to overtake individual European stock markets. That’s right - any one of these US companies are worth more than British or German capitalism.  With an election on the horizon, time to figure out what this all means.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Bubble Trouble: Giants of Global Markets and Economic QuandariesIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the dominance of the 'Magnificent Seven' US corporations in the recent stock market rally and their comparison to European markets. They discuss the significant influence of American tech CEOs versus their European counterparts, global lobbying efforts by big tech, and the economic impact of major tech product launches like Apple's iPhone 16 on UK retail sales. The episode analyzes the UK's economic challenges, governmental budget constraints, and tax policy trade-offs, including the freezing of tax thresholds. The hosts delve into the broader societal and economic consequences of media monopolies, infrastructure investments, and the peculiarities of contemporary political landscapes. 00:00 00:00 Introduction00:55 Part One01:00 Feedback and OpenAI Discussion02:41 The Magnificent Seven: US Companies vs. European Markets04:29 Comparing Market Values07:26 Future Projections and Power Dynamics12:50 European Response and Regulatory Challenges15:49 Investment Strategies and Market Resilience18:21 Retail Sales and Apple's Influence19:30 Part Two19:30 UK's Economic Challenges and Government Budget22:19 Tax Policies and Fiscal Strategies30:18 The Impact of Media and Big Tech35:29 Concluding Thoughts and Audience Engagement36:49 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We thought we’d get a little political on this week’s show. Are we serving up a bubble that was a landslide UK election, or is the new government trouble a bubble? And we want to deconstruct Will’s Pessimism Paradox as it applies to the place we most often seen bubbles, in high finance where the less certain the outcomes to higher the markets go.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Deconstructing Economic Pessimism in the Wake of a New GovernmentIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the political and economic landscape in the UK following the first 100 days of a new government. They analyze the concept of political and economic bubbles, questioning whether pessimism dominates current narratives. The discussion spans issues like the impact of the cloud on GDP measurement, tax policies, and the importance of attracting talent over traditional economic metrics. The hosts also delve into the role of economists’ outlooks during different economic conditions. The episode underscores the significance of focusing on new strategies and the long-term impact of political decisions, highlighting the government and economic system's current challenges.00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble00:44 Part One00:50 Analyzing the New Government's First 100 Days03:56 The Pessimism Paradox Explained14:13 Debating Economic Growth and GDP18:59 Part Two19:19 Tax Policies and Economic Challenges25:23 The Talent Competition and Immigration28:57 Reflections on Political Labels and Strategy32:47 Conclusion and Listener Engagement33:25 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We always try to flag the smoke signals of mischievous market behaviour that gets society and stock  portfolios into trouble. Are we about to get fooled again by the hype and hysteria surrounding the poster child Open AI?  Or maybe, just maybe, it’s worth joining us for 30 minutes to find what really sits behind a 150bn valuation and ask whether beauty is in the eye of the beholder?For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)In the latest episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into the hype surrounding OpenAI, now valued at $150 billion. They examine the risks of market hype and hysteria behind this soaring valuation, discussing the broader implications for society and the tech industry. The episode explores the nuances of company valuations, comparing public versus private market insights and the lack of transparency in the private sector. With references to past tech bubbles, the hosts analyze the potential conflicts of interest among investors and question the sustainability of current trajectories in tech valuations. As they await the next bubble to burst, Kramer and Page emphasize the importance of scrutinizing underlying business fundamentals in an era of outsized market valuations.00:00 Introduction00:49 Part One01:04 The AI Hype and OpenAI's Valuation03:25 Understanding Company Valuations06:32 Public vs Private Market Valuations10:56 The Transparency Challenge in Tech15:26 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Lessons21:12 Part Two21:49 The Role of Central Banks in Market Bubbles25:32 Exploring OpenAI's Valuation and Market Dynamics36:09 Smoke Signals and Future Predictions43:46 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week we speak with Bill Raduchel, who has served as a high-level executive and strategic adviser for organizations such as Sun Microsystems, AOL Time Warner, Xerox, McGraw-Hill, and the Salvation Army. Over half a century working with systems, software, and networks, he has remained at the forefront of the technology revolution in media, education, and corporate governance including recognition at Sun as CIO of the Year and the top CFO in the computer industry and at AOL as CTO of the year. He holds more than fifty issued patents as well as a PhD in econometrics from Harvard, where he taught for five years with John Kenneth Galbraith. He has been writing software in some form since he turned fifteen years old in 1961. He is also the author of The New Technology State. This book is about society—how it has changed and what technology is enabling us to do to ourselves. [Repeat from April, 2024]For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)The New Technology State: Redefining the Tech and Government Landscape00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: A Skeptical Conversation00:46 A Journey Through Tech and Economics06:23 The Evolution of Technology and Its Impact on Economics08:02 The Writing Process and Insights into Bill's Book11:21 Exploring the New Technology State and Government Challenges17:43 The Intricacies of Tech Talent and Government Staffing19:53 Tech Debt and the Challenges of Modernization25:55 The Global Tech Landscape: Government and Private Sector Dynamics25:55 Wrapping Up Part One and Teasing Part Two25:55 Simplifying UK Government Websites: A Double-Edged Sword25:55 The Dangers of Centralization and Cybersecurity26:10 Big Tech, Government, and the Quest for Regulation27:59 The Talent Gap in Government and Tech Regulation Challenges29:15 Innovative Solutions andthe Power of Decentralization30:15 The Role of Startups in Tech Innovation and Employee Motivation31:59 Google's Management Revolution: Lessons in Innovation34:45 The Complexities of Regulating Big Tech40:05 Navigating the Future of AI and Government Regulation42:19 Economics, Education, and the Future Workforce44:56 Smoke Signals: Warning Signs in Tech and Regulation50:06 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

One of the first casualties of the AI race may be lawyers, and that’s where we go this week with Damien Riehl who is at the front line of disrupting the legal profession. Law without lawyers? Really? Are we moving from if to when this tipping point becomes reality. Damien's company: https://vlex.com/vincent-aiDamien's TED Talk: https://www.ted.com/talks/damien_riehl_why_all_melodies_should_be_free_for_musicians_to_useAll The Music: https://allthemusic.info/All the Patents: http://allthepatents.info/For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)The AI Revolution in Law: Disrupting and Democratizing Legal ServicesIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the disruptive potential of AI in the legal profession with guest Damien Rio from vLex. The discussion explores the transformative impact of AI on access to legal services, the operational overhaul of legal tasks through large language models, and the future implications for lawyers, courts, and clients. Damien shares insights on his groundbreaking work in automating legal processes, addressing the challenges of legal backlog, and the potential for AI to democratize access to law worldwide. The episode also touches on the impact of AI on litigation strategies, private versus public legal data, and the future landscape of legal arbitration.00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome00:44 Part One00:52 Damien's Background and TED Talk01:30 Part Two01:30 Introduction to V Lex02:30 The Role of AI in Legal Research03:41 Disrupting the Legal Profession07:54 Democratizing Access to Law09:13 Challenges and Opportunities in Legal Tech17:59 AI's Impact on Legal Disputes23:58 The Role of Non-Lawyers in Legal Services25:28 Democratizing Access to Law25:58 Part Two26:08 Economic Impacts of Legal Tech26:59 Jevons Paradox and Legal Work28:35 AI in the Judicial System34:55 Global Implications of Legal Tech38:18 AI's Limitations and Future in Law46:45 Copyright and Patent Innovations48:28 Conclusion and Future Prospects49:12 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.