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McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast
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McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

Author: McKeany-Flavell

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Empowering clients with commercial intelligence, supply chain expertise,
and risk management solutions.
379 Episodes
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Winter Wheat Seedings report Current look at winter wheat conditions and weather U.S. exports capped at 900 million bushels? Recommendations for strategy and coverage Join us next Wednesday, January 21 for our first webinar of the year! Key Ingredients in 2026 Webinar: Anticipate Volatility & Plan Effectively Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President  
Corn & soy complex Bearish surprise for U.S. corn via production Soybean ending stocks higher as a result of paltry export demand What gives with U.S. soybean oil stocks? Sugar Louisiana cane production forecast breaks record! Sugar deliveries forecast to drop, but by how much? Wheat Catch up with wheat S&D on this Friday’s pod! Join us Wednesday, January 21 for our first webinar of the year! Key Ingredients in 2026 Webinar: Anticipate Volatility & Plan Effectively Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Economy Lackluster headline jobs growth with revisions lower Unemployment rate reverses recent uptick Fed still eyes 50-basis-point rate cuts this year Weather NOAA’s latest forecast reveals a potential El Niño in H2 2026? What crops could be affected? Current conditions in the U.S. have been drier due to the weak La Niña weather pattern Join us on Wednesday, January 21 for our first webinar of the year! Key Ingredients in 2026 Webinar: Anticipate Volatility & Plan Effectively Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Corn wet milling Investments made will impact availability of liquid sweeteners Sugar World sugar stays under 17 cents per lb Brazil: Another monster crop STU goes up: 18% by summer More forfeitures during the summer months Wheat U.S. acreage at an all-time low Global production output to be more like last year’s than this year’s output (800 MMT vs. 837 MMT) Soy complex & edible oils Resurgence in biofuel production Conventional canola oil is the least expensive option for a good chunk of 2026 Impact of weight management drugs continues Anti-seed oil trend to pick up traction Economy & energy Three rate cuts during 2026: 2.75% to 3.00% CPI: 2.6% for 2026 Inflation likely to tick up by year's end Crude oil: $55 to $56 a barrel Happy New Year! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
...and Nicole's got the mic, rhyming her way through a poem that is sure to be liked. Happy holidays from McKeany-Flavell! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Soybean oil futures Why do we keep coming back to the same spot? Soybean oil in biofuels A combo of the known and unknown Food consumption Consumer trends of all forms to drive demand GLP-1s: A fad or here to stay? Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
USDA punts any U.S. production changes to January Expect more volatility and market attention next month Corn The only change? Increase to exports  Soy complex No changes to the U.S. soybean balance sheet Wheat Ditto for U.S. wheat balance sheet: No changes Global wheat production rose further Now a 5% increase vs. 2024/25 Sugar Beet sugar production lowered, while cane increased Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Eric Thornton, VP Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Ethanol from corn and high sugar share increasing Brazil production in 2024/25 Global surplus pressuring world # 11 sugar prices When will low prices impact production? Missed Wednesday’s webinar on Systematic Timing Models? Watch now on our IQ platform! Not an IQ subscriber? Reach out to us to learn more! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
FOMC decision on Dec. 10 Crude oil production vs. demand Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs Dec. 9 WASDE Next Wednesday is our last webinar of 2025! Procurement Timing Models: Taking the Emotion Out of Procurement Wed., December 3, 11am PT / 2pm ET Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Happy Thanksgiving! Host/Expert: Eric Thornton, VP Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
Will the closure of refining cause some regional tightness? Burdensome inventories for both beet and cane Will it keep pressure on prices? The International Sweetener Colloquium is now on the radar! Come prepared to talk 2027 Mark your calendars for our next webinar! Procurement Timing Models: Taking the Emotion Out of Procurement Wed., December 3, 11am PT / 2pm ET Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up for both now at mckeany-flavell.com Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist  
Corn Downward revision to usage for feed and residual Soy complex Soybean carry-in lowered a bit Most puzzling was soybean oil! Wheat U.S. balance sheet as expected Higher production boosts U.S. stocks Global wheat production increases galore! Sugar Massive adjustments to sugar deliveries Both beet and cane production lowered Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Eric Thornton, VP
Q4 2025 snapshot of market conditions Is market softness present? Preparing for 2026 with budget considerations Not a client on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more! Commodity dashboards Dynamic data & interactive charts Analytics & calculators Price forecasts Downloadable data, charts, and tables Host: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Guest Expert: Michael Workman, Growth Director at ResinSmart by RTi Global Guest Expert: Kevin Mekaru, Senior Business Unit Lead, Commodity Plastic Resin, RTi Global www.resinsmart.ai
Soybeans Soybean prices “rise from the dead” to 15-month highs! China/U.S. trade announcements require careful analysis How impactful in the short and long term? Chocolate Halloween chocolate prices are up, up, up! Retail chains may be running some promos to try and get a lot of volume sold Will they be successful? Want to go more in depth on cocoa? Join us for next week’s webinar! Cocoa Market Update Webinar Wed., November 5, 11am PT / 2pm ET Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Happy Halloween! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Eric Thornton, VP Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst
Not much movement on price direction for 2026 Corn wet millers offering multiple solutions to manage coproducts Product demand is still a concern going into negotiations Two webinars back-to-back! Make sure to register for both! Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar Wed., October 29, 11am PT / 2pm ET Cocoa Market Update Webinar Wed., November 5, 11am PT / 2pm ET Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up for both now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist  
Corn Corn yield likely falling on disappointing harvest results thus far Record crop still expected north of 16 billion bushels Corn exports appear to remain strong; other categories remain to be seen Wheat U.S. wheat production increases should boost ending stocks Could U.S. export demand surpass 900 million bushels? Winter wheat plantings about 65% complete Conditions improving in soft red winter wheat area Soy complex Chinese soybean import demand could be hit or miss for the U.S., with or without a deal Domestic soybean oil consumption soft with potential for some export demand offset Our next webinar is fast approaching! Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar Wed., October 29, 11am PT / 2pm ET Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO  Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Big question: Will the government shutdown end in time for November WASDE? Corn Corn carry-in up Yields down, but still a record Harvest acres lower? Future S&D risks: Feed and exports Sugar Sugar production likely lower than September WASDE Will sugar deliveries decline for a second consecutive year? Save the date for our next webinar! Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar Wed., October 29, 11am PT / 2pm ET Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management  
Soybean production could be lower than expected due to late-season weather dynamics Soybean meal needs more homes Soybean oil market ambiguity continues Save the date for our next webinar! Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar Wed., October 29, 11am PT / 2pm ET Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO  Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services  
Corn futures may have already hit harvest lows Feed demand picks up in December Could that support coproduct values through Q1 2026? Key to wet milling contract negotiations: Understanding corn grind allocation Not a client on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more! Commodity dashboards Dynamic data & interactive charts Analytics & calculators Price forecasts Downloadable data, charts, and tables Save the date for our next webinar! Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar Wed., October 29, 11am PT / 2pm ET Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
A weak La Niña is now in the forecast What does that mean for the long-range weather outlook and commodities? Drought in the U.S. has expanded in recent months Will La Niña offer any relief? Watch out for the potential of planting and harvest delays in Brazil this winter Not a customer on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more about IQ, where we offer subscribers 24/7 access to Real-time market updates and technical analysis Discussion of supply and demand fundamentals Price forecasts As well as charts, tables, and downloadable PowerPoint market overviews Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Corn Domestic corn acreage increased Corn yield lowered: Still too much, too soon? Slow down in ethanol Soy Complex Uptick in soybean ending stocks and slightly higher acreage Upward to revision to crush Where’s China? What's driving prices? Not much in the way of change short of production adjustments for corn, soy complex, but it’s what we DON’T see in the numbers that may drive prices for corn, soybeans, and soybean oil Sugar Beet production lowered, while cane production increased Mexican imports cut in half under Suspension Agreement rules Stocks-to-use still well above the target Next week is our Energy Market Update Webinar! Wed., September 17, 11am PT / 2pm ET Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO   Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
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