China Global

The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission has just released its 2025 annual report to Congress. The annual report’s analysis and recommendations are a crucial source of information for Congress, the executive branch, and observers of US-China relations. This year’s report includes 28 key recommendations for Congress.  On this episode of China Global, we have two Commissioners joining us to discuss the report, Commissioner Aaron Friedberg and Commissioner Mike Kuiken. Commissioner Friedberg is Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and co-director of its Center for International Security Studies. He is also a non-resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, counselor to the National Bureau of Asian Research, and previously served as Vice President Dick Cheney’s Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs.Commissioner Kuiken is a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution and advisor to the Special Competitive Studies Project. He has over 20 years of experience shaping US national security policy, including 12 years on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Timestamps:[00:00] Intro[1:47] China’s Role in the Axis of Autocracy[03:22] Best Response from US and Allies?[05:23] The Interlocking Innovation Flywheels Effect[07:47] Made in China 2025 Plan: 10 Years Later[10:25] Why Does Chinese Dominance Matter?  [12:39] Policy Prescriptions for the US[16:24] Lessons Learned from China Shock 1.0 and Preparing for 2.0[21:09] Bipartisan Political Will on China Policy[24:06] Taiwan as a Vital Interest to the US[28:06] Assuaging Taiwanese Doubts in Congress[30:17] Taiwan’s Defense Spending Debate  

On October 30, US President Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping met in Busan, South Korea. It was their first face-to-face meeting in 6 years. There was a lot at stake in this meeting for the US and China, as well as for the rest of the world. In my view, the outcome is best described as a fragile truce. The path forward for US-China relations remains uncertain – greater stability and predictability is possible, but not assured. Intense competition across several domains, especially technology, is likely.Today’s episode focuses on the Trump-Xi summit and the future of US-China relations, featuring Mr. Dennis Wilder. Dennis is a senior fellow for the Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues at Georgetown University, where he previously served as the managing director, and assistant professor of the practice in Asian studies in the School of Foreign Service. He served on President George W. Bush’s NSC first as director for China and then as senior director for Asian Affairs. He also had a distinguished career in the CIA, where he held many positions, the last of which was senior editor of the Presidential Daily Brief.  Timestamps:[00:00] Introduction[1:57] Trump-Xi Summit: A Win for China? [09:03] Fact Sheet Discrepancies [14:37] Trump Administration’s China Strategy[16:47] Achieving Chinese Exceptionalism[19:20] China’s Confidence and Potential Instability[21:26] Why No Taiwan Mention? [24:48] An Inflection Point for Greater Stability? [27:50] Indo-Pacific View of the US-China Relationship

From October 20-23, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party held its Fourth Plenum in Beijing, marking an important moment as the Party sets the direction for China’s development for the next five years. The session adopted recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, endorsing Xi Jinping’s goals of high-quality development, scientific and technological self-reliance, and strengthening national security in response to rising global instabilities. The Central Committee also announced the replacement of 11 members, the highest personnel turnover since 2017 amid an ongoing anti-corruption purge in the military. To discuss the plenum’s outcomes, we are joined by Jonathan Czin. Jonathan is a leading expert on Chinese politics and foreign policy. He holds the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and is a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. He previously led the intelligence community’s analysis of Chinese politics and policy making at the CIA and also spent two years as director for China at the National Security Council during the Biden administration.  Timestamps:  [00:00] Start  [01:36] Why the Fourth Plenum Matters  [03:37] Key Takeaways: Policy Continuity and Political Purges  [05:07] Zhang Shengmin and Xi Jinping’s Military Ambitions  [09:23] Signals and Adjustments in Economic Planning  [11:56] Previewing the 15th Five-Year Plan  [13:33] Xi Jinping’s Growing Confidence  [17:42] Political Messaging and Choreography  [20:21] Language in the Communique: “Strategic Resolve”  [22:28] What to Expect from the Xi-Trump Summit  [26:38] Is Beijing Worried the Summit Could Backfire? 

China’s ties with Southeast Asia states are increasingly consequential for regional stability and global geopolitics. Over the past two decades, China has become the region’s largest trading partner and a major source of investment and infrastructure financing. At the same time, China growing military presence and aggressive behavior in the South China Sea have caused anxiety and have prompted a number of Southeast Asian nations to seek closer security ties with the United States and other partners.  The Trump administration’s policies of imposing tariffs, reducing foreign assistance, and implementing stricter immigration regulations have begun to erode US influence across the region, further encouraging Southeast Asian countries to rely on each other and to diversify their relationships with external partners.    To discuss Beijing’s evolving approach to Southeast Asia and the efficacy of its policies, we are joined on the podcast today by Dr. Chong Ja Ian. He is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore and a nonresident fellow at Carnegie China. Ian’s research focuses on Chinese politics, foreign policy, and US-China relations. Timestamps[00:00] Intro[01:50] China’s Tools and Objectives in SEA[03:02] Economic Relations with SEA[05:52] Success and Failures of Beijing’s SEA Strategy[07:47] Regional Media and Influence[11:40] SEA Views on China: Consensus and Discord[14:55] Regional Strategy Post-Trump[18:22] SEA Reactions to China Taking Taiwan by Force[22:40] Crisis Planning and How it Could Change[24:10] Long-Term Outlooks for China-SEA Relations 

In mid-September, while many China watchers were focused on the Xiangshan Forum, the Chinese military’s annual high-level security and defense convening in Beijing, another major annual meeting was being held by the Ministry of Public Security in the Chinese city of Lianyungang (2-2-3). The Lianyungang Forum dates to 2015 but was upgraded and renamed the Global Public Security Cooperation Forum in 2022 following Xi Jinping’s launch of the Global Security Initiative. This year it was attended by 2,000 participants from 120 countries, regions and international organizations. The theme was “Shaping Global Public Security Together: United Action to Tackle Diverse Threats.”  As Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong made clear in his opening speech, China is advancing an alternative to the western-led security order. Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens is a leading expert on Beijing’s push to reshape the global security order and promote China as a model and global security provider to developing countries. Sheena is an associate professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin where she directs UT’s Asia Policy Program and serves as editor-in-chief of the Texas National Security Review. She is also a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace, and a visiting associate professor of research in Indo-Pacific security at the China Landpower Studies Center of the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. Relevant to this episode’s discussion, Sheena recently published a co-authored report for the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace Carnegie titled “A New World Cop.” Timestamps:  [00:00] Start [02:30] The Global Security Initiative and Xi Jinping’s Grand Strategy [05:22] Outcomes of the Global Public Security Cooperation Forum  [08:50] What Do Participant Countries Gain?  [12:23] How Do Recipient Countries Use Chinese Technologies?  [16:12] Countries Rejecting China's Surveillance Technologies  [21:49] China’s Rewriting of Global Norms [28:18] Potential Policy Responses to the GSI 

Since 1951, when Tibet was formally annexed into the People’s Republic of China, Tibet has been a battleground between China’s efforts to assert control and the Tibetan people’s struggle to preserve their cultural and religious identity. This past August, Xi Jinping made a surprise visit to Tibet, his second since becoming China’s top leader in 2012. Less than two months earlier, the Dalai Lama, now 90 years old, announced that his office, not China, would choose his successor when he passes. A few months before that, the Dalai Lama revealed in a memoir that he would reincarnate outside of China. The PRC insists that the next incarnation – the 15th Dalai Lama – will be born inside PRC territory and approved by the Chinese government. What are Beijing’s interests in Tibet and how has Xi Jinping pursued them since coming to power? What is likely to occur after the Dalai Lama’s passing? I’m delighted to have as my guest today Tendor Dorjee. Tendor is an adjunct assistant professor of political science at Columbia University, a senior researcher at the Tibet Action Institute, and the inaugural Stephanie G Neuman Fellow at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. He recently co-authored an article in Foreign Affairs titled Beijing’s Dangerous Game in Tibet”.Timestamps[00:00] Start [02:08] Beijing’s Key Interests in Tibet [04:06] Xi Jinping’s Approach to Tibet [07:00] Internal and External Drivers of Tibet Policy [08:08] Xi’s Recent Visit to Tibet [11:34] Infrastructure Developments and Expansionism  [15:27] Beijing’s Succession Plans and Tibetan Reactions to a Future Dalai Lama [20:27] Risk of Unrest and Crackdowns [25:43] Implications for Neighboring States 

The United States and China are locked in a race for dominance in artificial intelligence, including its applications and diffusion. American and Chinese AI firms like OpenAI and DeepSeek respectively have captured global attention and major companies like Google and Microsoft have been actively investing in AI development. While the US currently boasts world-leading AI models, China is ahead in some areas of AI research and application. With the release of US and Chinese AI action plans in July, we may be on the cusp of a new phase in US-China AI competition.Why is AI so important for a country’s global influence? What are the strengths of China’s AI strategy? And what does China’s new AI action plan tell us about its AI ambitions? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Owen Daniels. Owen is the Associate Director of Analysis at Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council. His recently published article in Foreign Affairs co-authored with Hanna Dohmen -- titled China’s Overlooked AI Strategy -- provides insights into how Beijing is utilizing AI to gain global dominance and what the US can and should do to sustain and bolster its lead.Timestamps[00:00] Start [02:05] US Policy Risks to Chinese AI Leadership [05:28] Deepseek and Kimi’s Newest Models  [07:54] US vs. China’s Approach to AI [10:42] Limitations to China’s AI Strategy  [13:08] Using AI as a Soft Power Tool  [16:10] AI Action Plans  [19:34] Trump’s Approach to AI Competition [22:30] Can China Lead Global AI Governance?  [25:10] Evolving US Policy for Open Models

The United States and China wrapped up the third round of high-level trade negotiations earlier this week. American and Chinese negotiators met in Stockholm on July 28 and 29. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the talks as constructive and wide ranging. He acknowledged that an extension of the 90-day tariff pause was discussed but said that the final decision was up to President Trump.  As of today – August 1 – Trump has remained mum. The Chinese side’s readout was devoid of details, although China’s vice minister of commerce said that both countries would continue to push for an extension of the reciprocal tariffs and Chinese countermeasures.How should we assess the dynamics in the trade talks, including the balance of leverage between Washington and Beijing? And how might the trade negotiations shape the future of the US-China relationship? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Dr. Scott Kennedy. Scott is senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Timestamps[00:00] Start[02:06] Lessons Learned from Trump’s First Administration[05:20] Chinese Outlook on Future Economic Policy[09:28] Who’s Winning the Trade War?[14:30] China’s Reactions to Transshipment Provisions[18:18] Bessent's Rebalancing Plans [24:14] Challenges to Chinese Investment in the US [29:15] China's Trade Deal Goals

South Korea and China have a complex relationship characterized by economic interdependence, strategic competition, and regional security concerns. Navigating this delicate balance has been a defining challenge for every South Korean president. Newly elected President Lee Jae Myung has assumed power at a time of increasing US-China strategic competition as well as uncertain global supply chains and growing threat from North Korea. Could this new administration mark a shift in Seoul’s approach to Beijing? Or will President Lee maintain strategies similar to that of President Yoon?To discuss ROK-China relations, and President Lee’s approach to this intricate issue, we are joined on the podcast today by Dr. Ramon Pacheco-Pardo. He is a professor of international relations at King’s College London and the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Center for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy in the Brussels School of Governance. He is also an adjunct fellow with the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the author of several books on the domestic affairs and foreign policy of South and North Korea.  Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:44] “[P]ragmatic diplomacy centered on national interests”[05:06] State of Play for Sino-South Korean Relations[09:56] Balancing Between the United States and China[14:47] China Taking Advantage of US-ROK Frictions [19:03] Economic Interdependence as a Leverage[25:39] Xi Jinping Attending APEC South Korea 2025[31:11] American Pressure on Allies to Protect Taiwan

On June 13th, Israel launched attacks on several military and nuclear facilities in Iran, marking the beginning of a 12-day war between the two countries. The United States followed with targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power and posing a threat to regional and global stability. China’s involvement in the conflict was limited to condemning the Israeli and US use of military force and calling for de-escalation. Beijing offered only rhetorical support for Tehran. To discuss what the Israel-Iran war reveals about China’s relationship with Iran, its evolving strategy in the Middle East, and the broader implications for US-China competition, we are joined by Yun Sun on the podcast today. Yun is a Senior Fellow, co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center. Her recent piece in The Wire China entitled “How China Sees Iran’s Future” offers provides a nuanced take on Beijing’s calculus during and after the war. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:34] China’s Diplomatic Strategy Toward the Middle East[05:00] A Limited Chinese Response and China’s Regional Role[08:19] Chinese Perceptions of Iran’s External Strategic Blunders[15:00] Trickling Chinese Investment into Iran[20:10] Chinese Concerns About a Nuclearized Iran[25:09] Implications of the Israel-Iran War for China’s Energy Security[32:04] Trump’s Response Shaping Chinese Views of the United States 

In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. China has never condemned the invasion, and its government and media have carefully avoided using term “Ukraine War,” opting instead to refer to the war as the “Ukraine crisis,” the “Russia-Ukraine conflict,” or the “special military operation,” a term that echoes Moscow’s language. Beijing’s approach to the Ukraine War has included support for Russia, a commitment China’s own principles, including respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a professed desire for peace.This episode’s discussion will focus on China’s evolving posture toward the war and China’s relationship with Ukraine. Joining the podcast this episode is Dr. Vita Golod, who is a Junior Research Fellow at the A. Yu Krymskyi Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy Sciences of Ukraine, and a Visiting Adjunct Instructor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.She is also the co-founder of the Ukrainian Platform for Contemporary China and a board member of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists.  Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:35] China’s Relationship with Ukraine Prior to Russia’s Invasion[05:06] President Zelenskyy’s Accusations Against China [08:20] Contemporary Ukrainian Perceptions of Relations with China [12:14] Ukrainian Perceptions of Sino-Russian Relations[16:25] China as a Mediator and Peacemaker[19:06] China’s Interests in the Outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian War[21:21] What concrete steps could China take to facilitate peace? [23:14] China’s Role in the Post-War Reconstruction of Ukraine[28:08] The Future of Sino-Ukrainian Relations

On April 22, 2025, gunmen in the town of Pahalgam, located in the disputed region of Kashmir, killed 26 people—mostly Indian tourists. A four-day military clash between India and Pakistan ensued, bringing both countries to the brink of a full-blown war, before a ceasefire was reached on May 10, 2025. During the India-Pakistan clashes, Beijing urged both sides to deescalate and called for a “political settlement through peaceful means.” But China did not play a neutral role in the conflict. Consistent with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s purported statement to his Pakistani counterpart that “China fully understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and supports Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty and security interests,” China reportedly provided intelligence, satellite equipment, and other forms of support to Pakistan before and during the clashes.To analyze China’s role in the conflict, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Andrew Small. Andrew is a senior transatlantic fellow with GMF’s Indo-Pacific program, and author of two books on China, including “The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics,” which is now ten years old, but remains an insightful and relevant study. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:46] China’s Diplomatic Response to the India-Pakistan Clashes[05:58] Beijing’s Offer of Playing a “Constructive Role”[10:56] A Testing Ground for Chinese Weaponry and Equipment[14:03] China’s Cautious Approach to Sino-Indian Relations[18:10] Military Support and the Sino-Pakistan Relationship[23:44] Implications for Chinese Arms Exports[26:27] Indian and Pakistani Assessments of Chinese Involvement[30:06] Influence of US-China Rivalry on India-Pakistan Relations

The United States and China reached a 90-day truce in the trade war when their representatives met in Geneva in early May. Both sides agreed to temporarily roll back tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers. President Trump announced that a “total reset” in US-China relations had been achieved. Beyond the hyperbole, the two sides agreed to establish a mechanism on economics and trade and launch negotiations to address trade imbalances and other problems. Whether a deal is reached, what it might look like, and what it might include, remains to be seen. The future trajectory of US-China relations, overall, is still unclear.This episode highlights a Chinese perspective on the US-China bilateral relationship, including on the recent trade talks and the factors that will influence US-China relations going forward. Sun Chenghao, a fellow and head of the U.S.-Europe program at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS), and council member of the Chinese Association of American Studies joins host Bonnie Glaser for this episode.  Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:39] What does Trump want from China? [04:29] What view does Dr. Sun hold?[05:00] Assessing the US-China Geneva Talks[09:21] Feasibility of a Broad US-China Trade Deal[13:23] Implications of Trump’s “Unification” Comment[16:46] Importance of the Strategic Channel[20:47] Declining America, Rising China[23:27] Shift in US Policy Toward Alliances[27:49] The Future of US-China Relations

Critical minerals are required for the manufacturing of electronics, aerospace equipment, medical devices, and renewable energy technologies, making them essential for a country’s economic and national security. These materials have been at the center of China’s domestic and foreign policy for many decades, and China’s ability to integrate internal industrial policies with foreign trade and investment policies has allowed them to gain dominance in the market. Meanwhile, the US has lagged behind China in terms of both access to and processing technology of critical minerals. The country has been heavily dependent on China for its critical minerals and struggles to find an alternative supplier.China’s announcement to impose export restrictions on seven rare earth elements on April 4th has opened many conversations surrounding critical minerals, especially regarding the US and its supply chain vulnerabilities. What has China done to achieve their global dominance in the critical minerals sector, and what can the US do to address the overdependence issue they are facing today? To answer these questions and more, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Gracelin Baskaran, the director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She is a mining economist whose area of expertise is critical minerals and trade. Timestamps[00:00] Start[02:13] US Dependencies on Rare Earths and Critical Minerals[03:51] Sourcing from Latin America, Africa, and Asia[06:28] Environmental Harm from Mining and Processing[08:11] Deliberate Suppression of the Price of Rare Earths in the Market[11:06] Chinese Exports Restrictions on Seven Rare Earth Elements[14:08] US Administrations’ Approaches to Critical Minerals Vulnerability[20:02] 2010 Fishing Boat Accident and Japan’s Response [24:00] What might China do moving forward? [27:42] Timeframe for the US to Catch Up to China

This episode of the China Global podcast discusses evolving disputes between China and South Korea, specifically regarding their unresolved maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea. There is a long history of fishing disputes between the two countries in the Provisional Measures Zone (or PMZ) of the Yellow Sea, which is where their exclusive economic zones overlap. Although China and South Korea have engaged in negotiations over the years, they have yet to come to an agreement on their boundaries in the Yellow Sea.Taking advantage of the persisting disagreement on delimitation of maritime borders, China has employed gray zone tactics in the Yellow Sea to expand its territorial presence in the region. In the most recent dispute, China installed a new steel structure in the PMZ, causing a maritime standoff between Chinese and Korean coast guards.To discuss recent developments in the Yellow Sea and China’s broader gray zone tactics in the maritime realm, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Ray Powell, the Director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation. Ray is also the co-host of the Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific podcast, and a 35-year veteran of the US Air Force. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:43] Strategic Significance of the Yellow Sea[03:12] Expanding Chinese Control in the Region[04:08] Chinese Maritime Installations [05:20] Are these installations found in other regions?[06:00] Gray Zone Tactics in the South China Sea [08:20] Maritime Militia Activity in the Yellow Sea[09:02] 2001 Korea-China Fisheries Agreement[10:34] Testing the Waters with South Korea[12:09] Navigating South Korean Policy Dilemmas[13:48] Rehabilitating China’s Imagine in Korea[15:14] Environmental Issues in Disputed Waters[17:18] Countering Chinese Activities in the Yellow Sea[19:40] SeaLight Tracking and Deciphering Chinese Actions

As China’s military capabilities expand, US-China frictions intensify, and regional tensions increase, concern is on the rise that a potential crisis, either accidental or deliberate, could take place that could spiral out of control. If a crisis arises with China, leaders may want to de-escalate and prevent a wider conflict. To do so, they will need to understand how China thinks about crisis management and escalation.The guest for this episode has dug into the writings of PLA strategists and authoritative PRC sources as well as Western scholarship to assess how China views military escalation and how the US and other countries can accurately predict and interpret PRC signal in crisis scenarios.Lyle Morris is a Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security at the Center for China Analysis at the Asia Society Policy Institute. His recently published paper is titled “China’s Views on Escalation and Crisis Management and Implications for the United States.” Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:37] Methodology and Authoritative Chinese Sources[04:17] PLA Theories and Concepts of Managing Escalation[06:00] Controlling All Facets of Military Escalation[10:28] Doctrine of Seizing the Initiative[15:21] First Use of Force and a Reluctance to Use Force[19:37] American and Chinese Considerations of Misperception[25:46] Utility of US-China Tabletop Exercises[28:33] Predicting a Taiwan Contingency

The year 2025 marks the 10th anniversary of China’s Digital Silk Road, which has become an increasingly crucial component of Xi Jinping’s flagship foreign policy project: the Belt and Road Initiative. Over the past decade, China has massively expanded its digital infrastructure investment across the globe. Accompanying the investment has been the diffusion of China’s digital governance norms and standards in recipient states. Countries in the Indo-Pacific have been at the forefront of this stretching Chinese digital influence landscape. The conflation between digital development cooperation and digital governance norms adoption has far-reaching implications that need to be better understood and addressed. To discuss the issue, Michael Caster joins host Bonnie Glaser. Caster is the Head of Global China Programmeat ARTICLE 19, an NGO that advances freedom of opinion and expression. His organization has published two reports examining China's Digital Silk Road. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:30] Understanding China’s Digital Silk Road [05:57] China’s Digital Governance Norms[10:16] China’s Digital Footprints Abroad[16:07] Attractiveness of Chinese Digital Solutions[18:56] Role of High-Tech Companies in Digital Governance[21:44] Assessing the Effectiveness of China’s Digital Governance[23:14] State-Driven Surveillance and Censorship[27:39] China’s BeiDou Navigation System [31:09] How should governments respond to these normative shifts? 

Nuclear weapons have changed the nature of modern warfare and exerted a profound impact on international politics. The Cold War logic of nuclear deterrence maintains that nuclear-armed states will not attack one another because of fear of massive retaliation, or mutually assured destruction. By this logic, nuclear weapons promote stability and can prevent war.At the same time, however, nuclear weapons created a new dilemma. That is: “How can a state achieve its political objectives through military force without triggering a catastrophic nuclear exchange?”This is a dilemma faced by all countries, especially nuclear powers. States have responded differently to this dilemma. What is China’s answer to this strategic dilemma? What has Beijing been doing to gain strategic leverage? How should we evaluate the success of China’s approach so far?These issues are the subject of a new book titled Under the Nuclear Shadow: China’s Information Age Weapons in International Security. The author, Fiona Cunningham, joins host Bonnie Glaser for this episode. Fiona is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. She is also a Faculty Fellow at Perry World House and affiliated with the Center for the Study of Contemporary China and the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:59] How do countries cope with the limited war dilemma?[04:00] China’s Approach of Strategic Substitution[07:24] Adoption of this Third Approach[11:23] Utilizing Information-Age Weapons[15:49] From Brinksmanship to Calibrated Escalation[21:21] Understanding China’s No First Use Posture[26:27] Following China’s Model [30:42] An American Response

In the past decade, China has ramped up its engagement in the Middle East, a region which is far from China geographically, but carries growing importance in China’s foreign policy. Economically, China is the biggest importer of the Middle East oil, particularly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Chinese state-owned enterprises have invested heavily in the region under the Belt and Road Initiative with an emphasis on physical and digital infrastructure, including telecommunications, 5G connectivity, submarine optic cables, and security information systems.  Diplomatically, China played a role in brokering a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two longstanding regional rivals. Beijing has also been instrumental in expanding the BRICS multilateral mechanism to include four Middle East countries. Securing access to vital natural resources is a key driver of Beijing’s intensified engagement in the Middle East. But China’s interests are broader and encompass economic, geopolitical and strategic considerations.To further discuss China’s interests and evolving role in the Middle East, Michael Schuman joins host Bonnie Glaser. Michael is a nonresident senior fellow at the Global China Hub of the Atlantic Council and an author and journalist with more than 25 years of on-the-ground experience in Asia.  He is the co-author of a recently published report by the Atlantic Council titled China’s Middle East policy shift from ‘hedging’ to ‘wedging.’ Timestamps[00:00] Start[02:06] China’s Interest in the Middle East[04:23] Evaluating China’s Strategy of “Wedging” [06:51] Evaluating China’s Position of Neutrality[10:17] Factors Driving China’s Middle Eastern Strategy [13:46] Chinese Bilateral and Multilateral Engagement [16:08] China’s Energy Ties with the Middle East[19:41] Implications for the United States[24:19] Limits to Chinese Engagement 

The Global South is a term that covers a broad swath of developing countries and emerging economies in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Oceania. It is a grouping of over 130 heterogenous countries that is pushing to enhance its voice in global decision making. China, which self-identifies as a leader of the developing world, has a long history of engaging with the developing world. Under Xi Jinping, Beijing has deepened its ties with Global South countries through economic investment, diplomatic engagement, and security cooperation.  Meanwhile, developed countries from the wealthier and more industrialized Global North are stepping up efforts to counter Chinese influence and win support from Global South countries.  What are China’s interests in the Global South?  What are the key strategies and tactics that Beijing utilizes to influence and engage with those countries? How have countries in the Global South responded to China’s influence?  And how will intensified Sino-American rivalry impact developing countries in the future? To discuss these issues, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Mr. Masaaki Yatsuzuka, Senior Research Fellow at the China Division of the Regional Studies Department at the National Institute for Defense Studies in Japan (NIDS).  He is the co-author of the recently published report titled “The Rising Global South and China.”  Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:55] Resurgent Interest in the Global South [04:28] Engaging Developing Countries[06:51] Economic Tools and Mechanisms to Exert Influence[08:55] Motivation for Expanding Military Presence [12:33] Perceptions of China in the Global South [15:07] Why does China’s involvement in the Global South matter? [17:39] US-China Competition Impacting the Global South[19:00] India, Brazil, and Other Rising Powers[20:35] Tokyo’s Concerns Over China’s Influence [22:41] Response to Increased Attention Paid to Developing Countries[24:37] China’s Reaction to the Trump Administration