China Global

Expectations for the 3rd Trump-Xi summit since Trump returned to power were modest, and the meeting delivered limited concrete outcomes: a two-month extension of the trade war truce, lower tariffs on some US and Chinese goods, an agreement to talk more about AI risks, two pandas for the Atlanta zoo, and a potential MOU between the US and Chinese militaries on crisis prevention and management. As I wrote in an analysis of the summit, Xi Jinping came away with a larger diplomatic and strategic win. He was greeted personally by President Trump upon arrival at Andrews Air Force Base and hosted for a lavish White House dinner. Those optics can be displayed to the domestic Chinese audience as evidence that China is now a peer of the United States, and its leader Xi is a peer of the US president, Donald Trump. Summits are rare opportunities to advance policy agendas, and this meeting fell short. The two leaders reportedly talked for about 90 minutes with consecutive interpretation. In my view, the leaders of the world’s two largest economies failed to seize the opportunity to discuss how to address bilateral, regional and global challenges: AI risks, technology competition, Taiwan, China’s rare earth exports, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. The result was a summit that preserved the fragile stability in the US-China relationship without addressing the broader challenges that make it so consequential. On today’s episode, we’ll talk to a renowned Chinese scholar about his perspective on the summit and where U.S.-China relations may be headed next. I'm pleased to welcome Dr. Da Wei, Director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University and one of China's leading scholars on U.S.-China relations. Timestamps:  [00:00] Introduction [02:32] Competing Views of a New Framework [05:19] Will a Warm Reception Lead to Changes in Chinese Policy?[10:18] Will the Fourth Period Effort Last? [14:02] Barriers to Bilateral Dialogue [18:07] Comparing the U.S. and Chinese Readouts [21:24] Beijing’s View of a Military-to-Military MOU [25:41] Greater Chinese Confidence = Greater Restraint [31:17] Trump and Xi on Taiwan [36:58] Lai Ching-te and Cross Strait Integration [40:20] What Can Be Achieved In Between 

Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, Chinese foreign policy has become significantly more assertive. More than a decade ago, Xi moved away from Deng Xiaoping's approach of "hiding capabilities and biding time" and embraced what he calls “great power diplomacy with Chinese characteristics.” Since then, China has adopted a more assertive presence on the world stage, placed greater emphasis on relations with the Global South, taken a tougher approach toward Taiwan, and reorganized its foreign policy apparatus around Xi’s personal leadership and priorities. Understanding this transformation – and more fundamentally, understanding what Beijing wants – has become a central question for China-watchers and policy makers. What are China’s ambitions as it emerges as a global superpower? A new book offers an answer that differs in important ways from many previous analyses. The book is titled “China's Global Strategy Under Xi Jinping.”  Its co-authors are Steve Tsang, Professor of China Studies and Director of the China Institute of the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London and Olivia Cheung, a Lecturer in Politics at King’s College London. On this episode, we have Steve Tsang with us today to discuss the book, his assessment of China’s global ambitions under Xi Jinping, and what those ambitions mean for policymakers.   Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [01:52] A Sinocentric Party-State Realist Analytical Framework  [07:14] Tianxia in Chinese Foreign Policy [09:45] Xi Jinping’s Growing Ambitions  [13:42] The Role of the Global South  [16:59] What Accepting Chinese Preeminence Looks Like  [19:57] Taiwan and the China Dream  [25:48] China First Policy as a Hindrance? [28:25] Using the Built-In Stop Button

Artificial intelligence is emerging as both a powerful source of competition between the United States and China and an area where the two countries may have a shared interest in reducing risk. Washington and Beijing have sharply different views about technology, national security, and governance, yet they also face some of the same potential dangers from increasingly capable AI systems—from cyberattacks and biological threats to unintended escalation and the loss of human control over critical decisions.   With U.S.-China talks on AI expected to take place ahead of the Trump-Xi summit later this month, a pressing question is whether the two countries can carve out practical areas of cooperation even as they compete intensely over the technology itself. What could realistically be achieved in those talks, where do American and Chinese concerns about AI risks converge or diverge, and can the two sides keep discussions about risk reduction separate from the broader struggle over technology and export controls?  To unpack those objectives and what a credible outcome might look like, we are joined by Mark MacCarthy. Mark is a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in the Governance Studies program's Center for Technology Innovation and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University, where he teaches on the governance of emerging technology, AI ethics, and privacy. He is the author of Regulating Digital Industries: How Public Oversight Can Encourage Competition, Protect Privacy, and Ensure Free Speech. He also recently co-authored an article on how the US and China can cooperate to reduce urgent AI risks, which you can find on the Brookings website.  Timestamps:  [00:00] Introduction  [02:17] The Need for US-China AI Cooperation and Risks  [04:32] Converging on AI Risk Reduction  [07:18] Setting Guardrails Amidst Competition   [10:14] World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation  [13:33] Trump-Xi Talks: A Technical Exchange  [18:31] Who Needs To Be At the Table   [21:25] Low Hanging Fruit for Cooperation  [24:39] Assessing Bill Gates’ Recommendations   [28:30] Different Approaches to Technology and Governance   

Thirty years ago, the People's Republic of China ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Since then, Beijing has frequently invoked UNCLOS to support its maritime claims and legal positions, while advancing interpretations of the Convention that many other states –but not all – reject.  This June the China Institute for Marine Affairs under the Ministry of Natural Resources marked the 30-year anniversary with an extensive report providing Beijing's interpretation of UNCLOS, including its account of the 2016 arbitral award that found China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea as lacking a legal basis under the Convention.  To examine the PRC’s evolving interpretation of UNCLOS and Chinese maritime activities, and how both are being used to advance Chinese interests, I’m joined today by Dr. Peter Dutton. Peter is a Senior Research Scholar in law and senior fellow in the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School. Previously, he held several positions at the U.S. Naval War College, including as director of the China Maritime Studies Institute. He served in the US Navy for more than 40 years in several capacities, including as a Judge Advocate and naval flight officer.   Timestamps:  [00:00] Introduction  [01:45] UNCLOS and China’s Approach to International Law   [04:48] Favorable Interpretations of UNCLOS for China  [07:07] Unpacking Wu Shicun’s Comments on Future Construction  [10:47] Capitalizing versus Defending Interests  [16:56] Potential Deterrence Options for the US and Allies  [19:14] Renegotiating the Law of the Sea Convention?   [22:45] Updated Arguments to the 2016 Ruling   [25:50] China’s Strategy and Relying on Power  [29:03] Indicators and Actions to Watch For   

China's growing use of economic power for strategic and political purposes has become one of the defining features of international competition. Beijing is no longer simply using trade and investment to promote economic growth—it is increasingly deploying a sophisticated toolkit of laws, regulations, export controls, market access, infrastructure investment, and technological standards to advance its broader geopolitical objectives.   In today's episode, we'll explore how China's approach to economic statecraft has evolved, how effective it has been, its impact on Chinese foreign policy – especially relations with the United States -- and what governments around the world can do in response. I'm delighted to be joined by Dr. Evan Medeiros, one of the leading experts on Chinese foreign policy, including its use of economic statecraft, to help us unpack these important issues.   Dr. Medeiros is the Penner Family Chair in Asia Studies in the School of Foreign Service and the Cling Family Distinguished Fellow in US-China Studies at Georgetown University. He served seven years in President Obama’s NSC first as director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, and then as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Asia. Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [01:49] What is Chinese Economic Statecraft? [04:52] How Chinese Leaders Think About Economic Power and Political Influence [06:43] The Evolution of China’s Economic Statecraft Toolkit [09:49] Chinese Market Accessibility as Statecraft [14:07] Institutionalizing Economic Statecraft [17:37] How Legal Bodies are Implemented [23:32] Implications for the US-China Relationship [25:36] Strengthening US Economic Statecraft