Stock Market Updates

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryRate Cut Optimism Lifts U.S. Markets as Retail Stocks ShineAmerican stocks rose substantially on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq recovering from an early decline to join the Dow and S&P 500 in positive territory.Alphabet surged nearly 3% on reports that Meta may adopt its AI chips, boosting sentiment around its Gemini platform. Nvidia and AMD fell 3% and 4% respectively, amid competitive concerns.Weaker-than-expected retail sales and producer price data fueled expectations of continued Fed rate cuts, driving a multi-day equity rally. Retailers outperformed - Kohl's jumped over 40% and Abercrombie 18% after beating profit expectations and raising guidance, while Best Buy gained 5%.The rally reflected growing optimism about lower rates, fueled by dovish Fed commentary and recent economic data. Markets now price in an 80.2% probability of a 25-basis-point December rate cut, up sharply from 43.4% last week.Asian stocks rose today, following Wall Street higher as weaker U.S. economic data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.Oil prices fell over 1% on Tuesday after Ukraine suggested intensive U.S. diplomatic efforts to end the war with Russia may be progressing. Natural gas plunged nearly 6% on forecasts of milder winter weather and strong U.S. production.Bitcoin traded around $87,800, recovering from recent lows alongside modest gains in altcoins.The Nifty 50 extended its losing streak to a third consecutive session yesterday, on November 25, declining by 74 points to close at 25,884Nifty has closed very near to its previous swing low of 25856 and near to its 20 DEMA placed at 25838.On the upside, the zone between 26,000 and 26,050 is likely to act as a strong resistance area in the near term.Gift Nifty signals a positive start today, pointing toward a gap-up open on the back of positive global and Asian cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryIndian Markets Eye Recovery as Global Sentiment StabilisesFriday brought welcome relief to major US indices, fuelled by renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut rates in December after dovish remarks from policymakers. Technology and communication services lagged amid profit-taking that hit AI and cloud leaders, despite strong earnings from Nvidia and Amazon. Homebuilding stocks rallied sharply on rate optimism, while discount retailers such as Ross Stores surged on strong earnings.Defensive sectors like consumer staples held up better, cushioning overall losses. The VIX remained elevated in the low-20s as investors weighed Fed easing hopes against growth, tariffs, and labour-market uncertainties.Back home, the rupee hit an all-time low of 89.67 against the dollar, pressured by subdued risk sentiment, global uncertainties, and delays in the US-India trade deal.Indian markets drew support from the RBI's export relief measures, though sentiment was dampened by October's widening trade deficit and sharp export contraction. PMI data showed continued expansion despite moderating manufacturing momentum. Healthy Q2 earnings, robust macro indicators, and reviving FPI inflows—aided by easing inflation and stable crude prices—provided a liquidity cushion for large caps.Broader markets underperformed.Nifty fell sharply on Friday, though it remains above its nearest moving average support at 26038. Below 26038, the recent swing low at 25856 is expected to act as a crucial support level, while 26277 remains short-term resistance. Indian markets have demonstrated resilience in weathering recent setbacks and now appear poised to challenge previous peaks. Markets are likely to open buoyantly and attempt to break out of the recent consolidation phase today.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryTech Retreat Deepens Amid AI Bubble Concerns, Nvidia Results AwaitedWall Street stocks closed sharply lower on Tuesday as technology shares retreated amid concerns about AI valuations, and bitcoin briefly dipped below $90,000, signalling reduced risk appetite.All three major U.S. stock indexes ended deep in negative territory, while crude, bitcoin, and gold advanced, and Treasury yields dipped. Nvidia shares tumbled as traders braced for results that could significantly impact markets, given recent AI bubble fears. Outside tech, Home Depot slipped after missing earnings and cutting its full-year outlook.European shares hit a one-month low, with German stocks at near five-month lows, as investors grew wary of tech valuations and dimming prospects for a December Fed rate cut.A strong Nonfarm Payrolls report on Thursday could trigger repricing for further easing next month. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 50% probability to a December rate cut—up from 46% earlier in the day but below last week's 67%.Oil prices slipped 0.5% to around $60, as supply concerns rose and a modest U.S. inventory build has kept oil relatively stable despite broader market selling.Nifty snapped its six-session winning streak yesterday, slipping 103 points to close at 25,910 as broad-based selling dominated the session.A breakdown below the low of 25,876 could open the door for further declines toward the next support zone of 25,700–25,750. On the upside, Nifty needs to reclaim the 26030 high. Indian markets are likely to open mildly higher on the back of positive Asian cues. Nvidia's Wednesday earnings report will test whether the AI boom has staying power amid mounting valuation concerns.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryTech Selloff Deepens as Nvidia Results LoomUS stocks closed sharply lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling below key technical levels for the first time since late April. The selloff intensified throughout the session, dragging major indices to one-month lows as valuation concerns resurfaced ahead of Nvidia's earnings.The world's largest company by market cap fell 1.9%, leading declines and acting as the biggest drag on both the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Wednesday's after-hours earnings report looms large — results and guidance could significantly impact markets amid growing concerns about the AI bubble. Weakness spread across big tech, with Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon all declining as retail investors showed diminished appetite for buying dips.Concerns over US consumer health and sector rotation pressures combined with tech valuation anxiety to drive broad-based weaknessCrude oil dropped 0.68% to below $60/barrel following the resumption of Russian exports at Novorossiysk. Oversupply concerns now overshadow geopolitical risks. Gold retreated 1.8% to near $4,011/oz as reduced Fed rate cut expectations and dollar stabilisation outweighed central bank buying support.Japan's Q3 GDP contracted 1.8%, its first decline in six quarters, though better than the expected 2.5% drop. US markets await delayed jobs data and key retail earnings later this week.Japanese bond yields have climbed to 17-year highs, intensifying concerns about tightening global liquidity.Nifty rose for the sixth consecutive session yesterday with a rise of 103 points to close at 26013, marking its highest close since October 29, 2025. This gain was supported by optimism over a potential U.S.-India trade deal, highlighted by a recent LPG import contract, and improved domestic risk sentiment following a strong election performance by the ruling party.Nifty is marching towards the crucial resistance of 26100 with a gradual rise in bullish momentum. Above 26100, Nifty could extend the rally towards a fresh all-time high above 26277. On the lower side, 25800 could offer short-term support.Indian markets are poised to open slightly subdued today on weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryNvidia Earnings Take Centre Stage this week, PSU Buying and Political Clarity Support Indian Markets.The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 climbed well off their lows and into positive territory before eventually ending the day roughly flat.Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, as well as indications that key U.S. economic data may never be released due to the government shutdown, have reduced confidence that the central bank will continue lowering interest rates next month.Overall results remained well above analysts’ expectations relative to forecasts before the release of third-quarter numbers.S&P 500 companies’ earnings are expected to rise by an average of 13.1% versus a forecast for about 8.0% growth entering earnings season.Bond market traders dialled back their expectations of an interest rate cut at the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting scheduled to conclude on December 10.Investors in recent days have fretted about the pace of rate cuts and the pricey valuations of heavyweight artificial intelligence stocks that have fueled much of the U.S. stock market's gains over the past few years.The most important earnings release this week will be from Nvidia. Nvidia carries an 8% weight in the S&P 500 and a roughly 10% weight in the widely followed Nasdaq 100.Nvidia is the "epicentre" of AI build-out, so its results after the bell on Wednesday will be significant for the tech sector.Indian equity markets ended last week on a positive note, buoyed by late buying in PSU stocks, despite volatility from global factors and sector-wide profit booking.Midcap and smallcap indices underperformed, with market breadth staying negative—profit-taking dominated, as advances lagged declinesThe NDA’s decisive victory in the Bihar assembly elections boosted sentiment and drove late buying, especially in PSU banks.Despite sustained foreign selling, strong domestic inflows and resilient macro data kept the rupee off record lows.Nifty partially filled the upward gap between 25,715 and 25,781 recorded on November 12, underscoring the importance of this region as a key support zone. The sharp rebound from this level reaffirms the prevailing uptrend, suggesting strong buying interest at lower levels. Immediate resistance lies at 26,100, followed by 26,277, while the 25,715–25,740 range now serves as a crucial support band.Indian markets are poised to open mildly higher on positive cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryWall Street Sells Off Sharply Amid Fed Rate Cut Uncertainty, Bihar Election results in focus.Wall Street ended sharply lower on Thursday, with steep losses in Nvidia and other AI heavyweights, as investors scaled back expectations of interest rate cuts amid inflation worries and divisions among central bankers over the U.S. economy's health.All three major U.S. stock indexes posted their steepest daily percentage declines in over a month.The Nasdaq plummeted 2.3% to 22,870, the S&P 500 plunged 1.7% to 6,737, and the Dow tumbled 797 or 1.7% to 47,457.The U.S. government reopened after a record 43-day shutdown that had worried investors and disrupted the flow of economic data.The weakness on Wall Street may also have reflected uncertainty about whether key U.S. economic indicators would be released after the most extended government shutdown in U.S. history.White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Wednesday that the October jobs and consumer price inflation reports are "likely never being released" as a result of the shutdown.A growing number of Federal Reserve policymakers in recent days have signalled hesitation about further interest rate cuts, pushing financial market-based odds of a reduction in borrowing costs in December to near even. Fed officials who spoke recently cited worries about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labour market after two U.S. interest rate cuts this year.Asian shares joined a global selloff on Friday as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials doused hopes for a U.S. rate cut next month.Crude oil jumped 2.71% to $60.28 per barrel, supported by a drawdown in US inventories and ongoing output restraint among non-OPEC+ producers. Forecasts for tighter near-term supply continue to buoy prices despite global risks and longer-term demand questions.India’s retail inflation fell to a historic low of 0.25% in October, the third consecutive month below the RBI’s 2–6% target range. Easing inflation supported rate cut hopes and domestic resilience, aiding overall market stability despite global volatility.Nifty remains in an ongoing uptrend, with immediate resistance at 26,100 and support near 25,715.Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the Bihar election results, with increased volatility. Indian markets are poised to open subdued today on weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryDow Hits Record HighThe Dow closed above 48,000 for the first time, driven by optimism over the imminent end of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown.Defensive sectors and consumer staples led gains; meanwhile, tech stocks struggled.Progress toward passing a funding bill in Congress helped lift market sentiment, with investors expecting the release of delayed economic data and an increased chance of a December Fed rate cut once the government reopens.The Nasdaq posted back-to-back declines as mega-cap technology stocks and AI-linked equities faced profit-taking pressures. Nvidia dropped sharply after SoftBank sold its entire stake and supply-chain partners retreated. Oil dropped over 4% with OPEC and IEA highlighting a faster build-up of global inventories and soft demand outlook. U.S. production remains high, compounding bearish sentiment even as attacks on infrastructure failed to boost prices.Gold surged past $4,180/oz, reaching near-record levels as traders eyed a possible Fed rate cut and safe-haven flows continued despite the risk-on tone in equities.The Nifty extended its winning streak for the third consecutive session, rising 180 points to close at 25,875, supported by optimism over a potential trade deal with the United States. By closing above 25,800, the Nifty has retraced over 61.8 percent of the entire decline from 26,100 to 25,318, confirming a bullish reversal after the recent correction. The index now eyes resistance near the previous swing high of 26,100, and a breakout above this level could trigger a move toward fresh record highs beyond 26,277. On the downside, immediate support has shifted higher to 25,715, forming a strong base for the ongoing rally.Indian markets are poised to open mildly soft on the back of mixed global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryWall Street Ends Mixed On Tuesday, Hopes of a Trade Deal with the US buoy Indian markets. The Dow extended its strong upward move and the S&P 500 recovered from early weakness. The tech-heavy NASDAQ has slipped back to the downside.The Dow surged more than 500 points, setting a new all-time closing high. Optimism grew as the Senate passed a bill to end the 42-day federal government shutdown, boosting confidence that the House would approve it this week.A 3.1% slump in Nvidia shares weighed on the NASDAQ after SoftBank sold its entire stake in the chipmaker for more than $5 billion.Gold climbed above $4,130 per ounce, near multi-week highs, as weak jobs data and low consumer sentiment fueled expectations for a December Fed rate cut. The prospect of the government reopening slightly reduces safe-haven demand.Brent crude rose 1.6% to $65.09 per barrel, the highest since October 31, on the impact of the latest US sanctions on Russian oil and optimism over a potential end to the government shutdown.The poll of exit polls suggests that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set to retain power in Bihar.U.S. President Donald Trump said tariffs on India will be lowered “very substantially”, signalling an easing of tensions over New Delhi's Russian oil purchases as the two countries near a trade deal.Hopes for a US government reopening, prospects of a trade deal with the US, and optimism about falling global interest rates have buoyed investor sentiment. The Nifty rose for the second consecutive session yesterday, gaining 120 points to close at 25,694. Nifty faces a crucial resistance near 25,800, and a decisive move beyond this level could negate the existing downtrend and open the door for further upside.The Indian markets are expected to open higher, as risk-on sentiment is likely to get a boost after the US and India both sounded hopeful of reaching a deal soon.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryUS Tech Wobbles, while Indian Markets Eye RecoveryThe US stock market showed mixed performance marked by cautious optimism tempered with volatility, especially in technology stocks. The S&P 500 index was flat for the last week, reflecting a slight retreat from October's 2.3% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw slight gains early in the week but lost momentum amid market uncertainty, ending 1.2% lower. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the most affected, closing the week down about 3%, its worst weekly performance since April.The Indian stock market was subdued, characterised by modest declines and profit-taking, driven by weak global cues and mixed investor sentiment. The U.S. Federal Reserve's indication of potential rate hikes in 2026 rattled international markets, triggering a pullback across Asian bourses, including India. Rupee depreciation against the dollar added to inflation concerns, though these headwinds were partially offset by optimism around India's domestic economic fundamentals.Market liquidity will be closely monitored as primary market activity intensifies, with five IPOs—including PhysicsWallah and Tenneco—collectively seeking over Rs 10,000 crore in capital this week.The Nifty declined 0.89% last week while the Sensex fell 0.86%. Broader indices outperformed, with the BSE Mid-Cap index gaining 0.25% and the BSE Small-Cap index closing flat.Nifty found support at its 50-day exponential moving average (DEMA), triggering a healthy rebound. The convergence of the downward-sloping trendline (joining the swing highs of 25,669 and 25,448) with the 50 DEMA near 25,300 has reinforced this support zone. On the upside, the 20 DEMA at 25,590 is likely to act as immediate resistance, while the next hurdle is placed around 25,800.Wall Street futures rose on Sunday evening after reports suggested US Congress was close to reaching a deal to end the longest-ever government shutdown. Indian markets are poised to open modestly higher on positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryWall Street tumbled on Job cuts and concerns about Overvaluation.The American markets (S&P 500 (-1.12%) and NASDAQ 100 (-1.91%)) tumbled on Thursday as Big Tech and AI stocks faced profit-taking amid mounting concerns about overvaluation. Nvidia, AMD, Palantir, and Tesla led declines, pressured by weak investor sentiment following alarming October layoff data.October job cuts surged to 153,000— the worst for the month since 2003 and nearly triple of 2024 levels. Technology firms led the layoffs, intensifying fears about white-collar employment amid AI-driven restructuring.The selloff extended Tuesday's weakness in AI-related stocks. AMD plunged 7.3%, while Palantir, Oracle, and Nvidia posted significant declines. Qualcomm dropped 3.6% despite beating earnings estimates and issuing upbeat guidance.Investors remained focused on stretched valuations, the government shutdown, trade tariff rulings, and ongoing earnings reports. The major averages fell to their lowest closing levels in two weeks, erasing Wednesday's gains.Bitcoin erased early gains to trade at $101,462, nearly 20% below October's all-time highs. Crypto markets tracked equity weakness amid economic uncertainty, reduced expectations of a Fed rate cut, and continued whale selling pressure.Crude oil rose 0.44% to $59.69, pausing a prolonged decline. Surging U.S. inventories and OPEC+'s modest supply adjustments limited price gains, while Saudi Arabia's price cuts for Asian buyers signalled strong supply and fragile demand.Gold rose 0.62% to $4,004/oz, near record highs, as investors sought safety amid risk aversion and stock market volatility.The Nifty closed below its 20-DEMA for the second consecutive day, indicating short-term caution. The next crucial support zone lies between 25,400 and 25,450; a sustained move below this range could trigger further downside. On the higher side, 25,670 and 25,800 are likely to act as near-term resistance levels.Indian markets are poised to open lower in line with weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryUS Markets Rebound on Strong Data as AI Concerns EaseU.S. markets rebounded on Wednesday from Tuesday's steepest single-day decline in nearly a month. Surging semiconductor stocks and robust jobs and services data restored investor confidence after sharp losses triggered by concerns over AI sector valuations.Chipmakers led the recovery, with Seagate surging 11%, Micron 8%, and Western Digital 7%—reversing losses from Tuesday's AI-bubble-driven selloff. Super Micro Computer fell 8% after missing revenue forecasts, while Palantir declined further despite beating earnings estimates, reflecting sector rotation and profit-taking pressures.Wednesday's economic data showed that U.S. services sector activity reached an eight-month high in October on solid new-order growth, while private payrolls added 233,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts.The stronger-than-expected data drew investors back into markets, which were trading near record levels. U.S. Treasury yields maintained overnight gains as traders reduced expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, supporting the dollar near a five-month peak.Japan's services sector maintained strong growth in October despite the slowest new order expansion in 16 months and rising inflationary pressures, according to Thursday's private-sector survey.The dollar held just below multi-month highs on Thursday as renewed risk appetite pulled it off recent peaks, while sterling weakened ahead of a Bank of England meeting where investors expect dovish guidance.Gold climbed 1.3% to $2,982/oz, buoyed by risk-off sentiment and diminished expectations for additional U.S. rate cuts. However, fading rate-cut prospects and easing U.S.-China trade tensions have capped gains following October's rally.WTI crude edged up 0.2% to stabilise near $70/barrel as a substantial U.S. inventory build and dollar strength offset concerns over Russian supply disruptions and OPEC+ production decisions. Risk aversion and forecasts of a 2025 supply surplus continue to limit upside.Bitcoin briefly dropped below $100,000 for the first time since June, then recovered to $103,000, but it remains 20-25% below recent highs. Heavy ETF outflows, macroeconomic uncertainty, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown have fuelled the downturn, with sentiment indicators near yearly lows.Broader earnings trends indicate moderate profit growth for Indian corporates and continued *sectoral divergence, with renewables, banking and select consumption leaders showing notable momentum. Nifty closed below its 20-day exponential moving average (25,608) on Tuesday for the first time since October 3, 2025. The next support is seen near the previous swing high of 25,448, while resistance has shifted downward to 25,718.Indian markets are poised to open modestly higher on strong global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryAI Optimism Lifts Nasdaq; Action Shifts to Smaller Stocks in Indian Markets. Major U.S. stock indexes posted mixed performance on Monday. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 advanced, while the Dow declined.The tech-heavy Nasdaq's gain was driven primarily by Amazon, which surged 6% to a record high following a $38 billion agreement with OpenAI. Under the deal, Amazon Web Services will provide infrastructure to run and scale OpenAI's core artificial intelligence workloads. The announcement extended Amazon's rally from Friday.The Nasdaq rose 0.5% and the S&P 500 gained 0.2%, fueled by investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and cloud computing partnerships. Nvidia climbed 2.2% after Microsoft disclosed it had secured export licenses from the Trump administration to ship Nvidia chips to the United Arab Emirates.The headline gains masked underlying weakness- most S&P 500 constituents declined, underscoring narrow market leadership dominated by the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks. This concentration raises sustainability concerns if broader sector participation fails to materialise.In the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management reported that manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted at a slightly faster rate in October.The dollar rose to a three-month high against the euro, driven by diminishing expectations for aggressive U.S. interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve cut rates as expected last week, but Chair Jerome Powell stated that a December rate cut was "not a foregone conclusion," surprising investors who had viewed it as virtually inevitable.Markets now await the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy meeting, where no change is anticipated.Japan's manufacturing activity contracted in October at the fastest pace in 19 months, pressured by weakening demand in the automotive and semiconductor sectors, according to a private-sector survey released Tuesday.Indian markets ended little changed on Monday after a choppy session. Caution prevailed ahead of a big week for earnings, with around 200 prominent companies scheduled to report their quarterly earnings results. After a weak start, the Nifty swiftly recovered, climbing 158 points from yesterday’s low of 25,645 to register an intraday high of 25,803. The index eventually settled with a modest gain of 41 points at 25,763Nifty remains range-bound, oscillating between its short-term Averages, with no clear short-term directional bias. Immediate support is placed around 25,600, while resistance lies near 25,950.Indian markets are likely to open subdued, though action is expected to shift to smaller stocks as the result season progresses.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryIndian Markets Pause After Four-Week RallyIndian markets ended their four-week winning streak in the first week of November 2025, with the Nifty declining 0.65% and the Sensex falling 0.55% to close at 25,722 and 83,938, respectively, marking a pause in the recent rally amid profit-taking.Sentiment turned cautious after the US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4% range. The Fed hinted that this 25-bps cut might be the final one in 2025, which dampened hopes of further near-term easing.The US earnings season exceeded expectations, with 83% of S&P 500 companies beating analyst estimates—the highest percentage since Q2 2021. The blended earnings growth rate for the third quarter reached 10.7%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year growth. Technology stocks led gains, particularly after Amazon reported strong cloud computing results with AWS revenue increasing 20% in the third quarter, exceeding Wall Street estimates.In a significant development, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a landmark trade agreement on October 30 in South Korea. The deal includes a 10-percentage-point reduction in fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods (from 20% to 10%), bringing the total tariff rate down to approximately 47% from 57%. China committed to suspending the new rare-earth export controls announced on October 9 and to issuing general licenses for the export of rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite.Nifty is poised to open lower and breach the swing low support at 25,718, established on October 24th, 2025. However, it is likely to remain above its 20 DEMA at 25,590, which should provide near-term support. On the upside, the 26,000-26,100 zone is expected to remain a resistance.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryU.S. Stocks Move Lower As Meta, Microsoft TumbleThe weakness on Wall Street came amid an adverse reaction to earnings reports from tech giants Meta Platforms and Microsoft.Facebook parent Meta plunged by 11.3 % to a five-month closing low after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter results but forecasting higher AI spending.Software giant Microsoft also tumbled by 2.9% after reporting fiscal first-quarter results that exceeded estimates but also said capital spending growth will accelerate this fiscal year.Apple’s shares rose 3% post-market on upbeat holiday quarter guidance and record iPhone sales. Amazon jumped more than 13% on robust cloud division growth, helping to spur a post-close rebound in futures for both S&P 500 and NASDAQ.China's Xi Jinping will take centre stage at an annual gathering of Pacific Rim leaders in South Korea today, holding talks with Canadian, Japanese and Thai counterparts after securing a fragile trade truce with U.S. President Donald Trump.The U.S. and China agreed on Thursday to pause tit-for-tat fees on each other's ships, which had become a major irritant in the broader trade war between the world's two largest economies and pushed up ocean freight costs.The move provides a 12-month reprieve on an estimated $3.2 billion annually in fees for large Chinese-built vessels sailing to U.S. ports and was among the trade deals reached in South Korea by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.The U.S. Federal Reserve has moved back into line with other major rate setters after it cut rates by a quarter point on Wednesday but pushed back against market bets that it would keep going as the Washington shutdown fogs up its forecasting lens.The Bank of Japan and European Central Bank left rates unchanged on Thursday.China's factory activity shrank for a seventh month in October, an official survey showed on Friday, keeping alive calls for further stimulus to boost domestic demand, with efforts to ship goods abroad merely exporting price wars.The U.S. dollar held its ground in early Asian trade on Friday after reaching a three-month high as traders processed mixed signals from this week's central bank decisions, tech sector earnings and a tentative U.S.-China tariff truce.After opening lower by 70 points, Nifty continued its downward journey throughout the day and finally ended 176 points, or 0.68%, lower at 25877 yesterday. Nifty now appears to be coiling within a defined range, with resistance capped near 26,104 and immediate support around 25,800. A sustained breakout or breakdown beyond this band will be crucial in determining Nifty’s next directional move. Indian equities are poised to open flat to marginally weaker, weighed down by lacklustre global cues.

Trump’s Tariff Shock: Indian Markets Weather Sixth Straight Week of DeclinesTrump's imposition of hefty tariffs on dozens of countries and a weaker-than-expected jobs report triggered concerns over economic growth. However, US markets recovered steadily, helped by strong quarterly earnings and lower volatility levels compared to earlier months.Technology stocks such as Nvidia and Apple led the rally, with Nvidia benefiting from renewed sales to China and Apple announcing significant domestic investment. By the end of the week, the Nasdaq hit record closing highs for two consecutive days, surging on tech gains and optimism about potential interest rate cuts.Another area of focus was on the seemingly increasing likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates at its next meeting in September. Several Fed officials made comments during the week suggesting rate cuts could be in September. The Indian stock market faced a challenging week marked by overall declines for the sixth consecutive week amid continuing investor concerns due to US tariff hikes and geopolitical tensions. Donald Trump’s decision this week to impose a 50% tariff on Indian exports caused significant turmoil in Indian financial markets. Indian markets endured their sixth consecutive weekly decline amid Trump's 50% tariff imposition on Indian exports, triggering considerable turmoil. Export-oriented sectors, including textiles, gems, chemicals, auto ancillaries, and seafood, bore the brunt, disadvantaging Indian goods against competitors like Bangladesh and Ecuador. Nifty is likely to encounter an immediate resistance around 24500-24600 levels, followed by 24800 levels, at which we’ve seen call writing in the weekly expiry. Traders are advised to remain cautious till Nifty closes above the 24800 levels. On the downside, considering an oversold level of FIIs’ long to short ratio, a near-oversold level of Nifty open interest put call ratio and Put writing at 24200-24300 levels, suggests immediate support in this range, followed by 24000 levels. Any close below 24000 levels would result in further long unwinding and short build-up, which might drag Nifty to 23500-23700 levels. Indian markets are poised to open mildly subdued as investors stayed cautious ahead of key economic data this week and a looming deadline for the potential extension of US tariffs on Chinese exports.

Indian Markets Anticipate RBI Monetary Policy EasingUS indices fell, erasing gains from Monday's rally, as tariff concerns and disappointing economic data weighed on markets. Losses were broad-based, with growth sectors leading declines following weaker-than-expected data.President Trump's threats to impose new tariffs on India and pharmaceuticals, combined with broader trade policy uncertainty, unsettled investors. The ISM Services PMI missed forecasts at 50.1, raising fresh concerns about economic momentum.Despite the economic slowdown signals and Wednesday's decline, equity losses were limited by high market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning in September.The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in June on reduced consumer goods imports, with the trade gap with China hitting its lowest level in over 21 years.Post-earnings movers were mixed: Palantir surged 7% on better-than-expected results, while AMD and Snap declined after missing revenue or profit targets. Housing and transportation stocks also saw notable strength on the day, while utilities and semiconductor stocks moved to the downside.The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points when it announces its decision today at 10 AM, following its three-day meeting. Governor Sanjay Malhotra will deliver the announcement. Markets anticipate the rate cut as a response to potential global economic slowdown triggered by the US reciprocal tariffs on international trade. Soft inflation data and moderate demand provide room for an accommodative stance, though global uncertainties—including US trade policies—may influence the policy statement's tone.The expected cut would inject liquidity into the domestic economy to shield it from global trade disruptions.Nifty managed to close above its 100 DEMA, currently at 24595. The recent swing low of 24,535 is expected to serve as immediate support. On the upside, 24,785 and 24,950 are two key hurdles for Nifty.Indian markets are expected to open flat to slightly negative, likely marking time until the 10:00 AM RBI announcement. Market movement will then align with the central bank's rate decision and policy stance for the near term.

U.S. Markets Rally on Fed Rate Cut ExpectationsU.S. equity markets surged Monday, delivering their strongest single-day performance since May. The NASDAQ jumped 2.0% to 21,053.58, the S&P 500 gained 1.5% to 6,329.94, and the Dow rose 1.3% to 44,173.64. Tech megacaps led the advance, with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta reaching new highs.The rally followed last week's sharp selloff triggered by disappointing July employment data and downward revisions to prior months. While the weak jobs report heightened recession concerns, it also boosted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, odds of a September quarter-point cut surged to 91.9% from 63.1% a week earlier.Market volatility has been amplified by the new Trump administration's tariffs of 10%-41% on multiple trading partners, raising inflation and trade disruption fears. Monday's gains reflect investor hopes that imminent Fed easing will offset these headwinds.Second-quarter earnings provided additional support, with over 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations. Technology and AI-focused firms delivered particularly robust results, reinforcing confidence despite economic uncertainty.European markets followed the U.S. higher, with Germany's DAX climbing 1.4%, France's CAC 40 advancing 1.1%, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 gaining 0.7%.In Asia, Japan also saw significant economic developments. A Labour Ministry panel proposed a 6% hike in the national average minimum wage—the largest increase since the current system began in 2002. The proposal would raise the average salary to 1,118 yen (\$7.57) per hour, surpassing last year’s 5% rise, as the government pushes for wage-led growth.The Nifty registered a relief rally yesterday, the first session of the week, rising 157 points (0.64%) to close at 24722. A clear sign of the market's improved sentiment was the widespread buying interest across sectors. Barring Nifty FMCG, which ended marginally in the red, all other sectoral indices closed the day in the green. U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans on Monday to "substantially" raise tariffs on India, citing the country's continued purchases and sales of Russian oil amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict. In a post on Truth Social, Trump accused India of profiting from Russian crude while ignoring the humanitarian consequences of the war. However, he did not specify the timeline or scale of the proposed tariff hike.Nifty has been consistently finding support at its 100-day DEMA, and yesterday's strong close has raised hopes for a pullback rally. The recent swing low of 24535 is now considered a support level, while the 50-day DEMA, located near 24900, is expected to offer resistance.Indian markets are poised to open subdued on the back of Donald Trump’s threat to increase tariffs.

All Eyes on RBI This WeekThe Indian stock market remained bearish for the fifth consecutive week, the longest in two years,marked by significant declines amid persistent global trade tensions and domestic uncertainties. Sentiments remained subdued, driven mainly by heavy selling from Foreign Institutional Investors, weak corporate earnings, particularly in banking and IT, and concerns over India-US trade talks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit new record highs last week, fueled by optimism over a U.S.-European Union trade deal that reduced tariffs to 15%, improving trade outlook and investor sentiment. Crude oil prices fell after OPEC+ agreed to another output increase, stoking concerns about global oversupply just as the US-led trade war may be exacting a toll on economic growth. Market players are eager to know whether the RBI will choose to continue frontloading policy support during the August monetary policy review by announcing a 25-basis point (bps) repo rate cut at the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for August 4-6, or whether it will maintain the status quo after having already reduced the repo rate by 100 basis points earlier this year. The Reserve Bank of India's six-member MPC is also expected to retain its neutral policy stance while revising the inflation projection for FY26 downward.Indian markets are poised to open marginally higher today. Bulls will try to defend the crucial support zone around 24500-25400 levels (multiple swing lows of May-June 25). 24200 is a vital long-term support (200-day EMA) for the markets. The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision, auto monthly sales data, and major earnings releases will drive the markets this week.

Equities Lose Ground as Early Gains FadeU.S. stocks closed lower on July 31, with the S&P 500 down 0.37% and Nasdaq off 0.55%, as early optimism from Big Tech earnings faded amid late session volatility and cautious investor positioning.Strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta initially boosted sentiment and futures, but this enthusiasm was not broad-based. Other tech and semiconductor names, including Nvidia, faced profit-taking, undercutting sustained momentum in the indices.A sharp drop in health care shares followed White House demands for lower prescription drug prices, while semiconductors slumped after mixed results and outlooks. This weighed on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, contributing to the down session.Amazon beat analyst expectations for the second quarter. However, it gave weak profit guidance, sending the company's shares tumbling 7% in after-hours trading Thursday.The Federal Reserve held rates steady, but Chair Powell's hawkish commentary kept hopes for near-term cuts in check.June PCE inflation data showed persistent pricing pressures, partly due to tariff-driven import costs, reinforcing Fed reluctance to ease soon. This added to investor wariness and helped drive the late pullback in equities.Most markets across the Asia-Pacific region are trading lower on Thursday. Back home, after a two-session pullback, the Nifty resumed its downward trajectory yesterday, primarily on the back of US President Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on India and ended the day with a loss of 86 points (0.35%) at 24,768. The broader market felt the pinch as well. Both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices underperformed the Benchmark Indices, each losing 1%. Trump’s new tariffs are impacting the Indian market outlook in the short term.The Indian Rupee's woes continued, extending its falling spree by depreciating another 17 paise against the greenback to close at 87.59. This marks a near six-month low for the Indian Rupee, its weakest level since February 7th, 2025. Out of Nifty pack, ITC is going to declare its quarterly results today while from F&O stocks, eight companies are going to declare their Q1 earnings.Nifty broke the four series winning streak by falling 3.06% in the July derivative series. Bank Nifty too snapped its four series winning streak as it corrected 2.18% in the July series.FIIs positioning In the Index Futures Segment – Higher Possibility of a Short Covering by ThemFIIs' long-to-short ratio in index futures at the beginning of the August series stood at extremely oversold level of 0.11, as against 0.61 in the last series. This is the lowest since 29 March 2023 (beginning of April 23 series). In other words, out of total positions of FIIS’ in the Index Futures segment, 90% is on the short side. There are four instances (After March 2020) where FIIS long to short ratio at the beginning of the series stood at or below 0.15 (30-May-2024, 26-Oct-23, 29-March-2023 and 29-Sept-2022). If we were to see performance of Nifty in the subsequent series, Nifty had moved up in all the four series and average gain of Nifty was over 7%. Therefore, considering the historical evidence, there are higher possibilities of a short covering by FIIS in the Index Futures segment in the days to come.Indian markets are poised to open lower in line with negative global cues.Recent swing lows of 24598 and 24473 will continue to serve as immediate support. On the upside, the 50-day EMA, positioned near 24930, is expected to remain a strong hurdle for the Nifty.

Donald Trump’s 25% tariff will hurt Indian market sentimentsUS President Donald Trump has announced a 25% tariff on India (plus a potential penalty) starting August 1. This is similar to the tariff announced on liberation day (April 2) and is somewhat higher than the overall weighted average tariff on all imports of 18%. Among EM peers, Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines have lower tariffs than India (~20%), Korea has tariffs similar to India (25%) while Bangladesh (35%) and China (55%) have higher tariffs. This is likely to slow down India’s goods exports to the US (USD87bn; ~20% of India’s goods exports, ~2.5% of GDP). Notably, the US market is key for textiles, pharma, electronics, agri and machinery exports.Following the modest pullback seen in the previous session, US stocks showed a lack of direction over the course of the trading day on Wednesday. The S&P 500 edged down 0.13% as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments dampened expectations for a rate cut in September. Investors focused on technology, cushioning the index’s losses amid growing uncertainty around tariffs and monetary policy.The Dow posted a 0.38% decline, its third consecutive drop. Industrial giants and multinational consumer firms faced pressure from ongoing tariff threats and lackluster rate cut signals from the Fed, stoking volatility and caution. U.S. stock index futures trading in green, as gains in Microsoft and Meta following robust earnings buoyed technology shares. Microsoft’s Azure revenue and Meta’s upbeat outlook drove optimism for the sector, with both stocks jumping 6–10% after results.The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, but an unusual split within the committee—with two dovish dissenters—highlighted internal disagreement and added to market unease. Powell emphasized patience and suggested 'no decisions' have been made on autumn easing.Back home, Nifty extended its gains for a second consecutive session, gaining by 33 points (0.14%) to close at 24855. Broader market underperformed the Benchmark Indices yesterday as Nifty Midcap 100 Index registered a modest fall of 0.07%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 Index saw a more pronounced loss of 0.52%. However, market breadth remained positive for the second day in the row, with the advance-decline ratio on the BSE stood at 1.03. The Indian rupee exhibited its most significant single-day decline yesterday since May 8, plummeting by 60 paise against greenback to close at 87.42. This marks a fresh five-month low for Indian rupee. This sharp depreciation was primarily driven by increased month-end dollar demand and outflows from foreign funds. It’s a result heavy day, where sixteen companies from the F&O pack and five Nifty companies – Adani Ent, Coal India, Eicher motors, Hindustan Unilever and Maruti are going to declare their quarterly results today. We expect our markets to open sharply lower as they will respond unfavourably to the US President Donald Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on India and threat of additional penalties for trade with Russia.However, as our markets have partially discounted it by underperforming the global peers over past few weeks, markets will attempt to recover from these initial losses as the day progresses. Today's monthly derivative expiry may add another layer of volatility to trading. Recent swing lows of 24598 and 24473 could now act as immediate support levels. On the higher side, the band of 24,900-25,000 would continue to serve as a substantial hurdle for the Nifty, indicating resistance for any upward moves.