Stock Market Updates

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryS&P 500 notched its longest winning streak since OctoberMajor U.S. stock indexes rose as investors reacted positively to a fragile two-week ceasefire and reports of direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon. The S&P 500 closed above the key 6,800 psychological level, while the Dow Jones turned positive for the 2026 calendar year.The Nasdaq outperformed other major benchmarks, driven by significant gains in mega-cap technology firms. Amazon shares climbed over 5% following internal AI chip developments, while Intel and Alphabet rallied on news of an expanded semiconductor partnership for Google Cloud infrastructure.Futures edged slightly lower overnight as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, and diplomatic talks remained fragile heading into Friday.Asian equity indices opened higher and are expected to consolidate at higher levels ahead of important talks between the U.S. and Iran regarding the recent geopolitical situation. TCS reported USD revenue growth of 1.2% QoQ CC, which was in line with estimates, and the margins expanded by 10bps QoQ to reach 25.3% (best in the last eight quarters). TCS indicated better growth visibility for FY27E, bolstered by healthy deal wins, improving outlook, and strategic investments made over the last two quarters.The growth confidence is led by an improved vertical outlook where BFSI is prioritising data transformation and scaled GenAI, Consumer Business is gaining market share through large-scale renewals, Manufacturing is focusing on supply chain modernisation, and CMI is showing signs of a rebound in IT spending.The rupee's five-session rally stalled yesterday, shedding 8 paise to end at 92.66, alongside weakening Asian peers, pressured by higher crude prices and relentless FII outflows.Nifty surrendered some gains yesterday amid dented hopes for a ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict and fresh inflationary worries. Nifty ended the day with a loss of 222 points, closing at 23,775. Immediate support is seen around 23,500, while immediate resistance is placed at 24,000 and 24,200 on any rebound attempt.Indian markets are poised to open marginally higher on positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryUS and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefirePresident Trump announced a two-week suspension of military strikes against Iran just hours before his 8 p.m. ET Tuesday deadline, following last-minute Pakistani diplomatic efforts. Iran agreed to allow safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire, triggering sweeping market moves across oil, equities, currencies, and crypto.WTI Crude Oil tumbled as much as 17% to below $100 per barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Oil had surged above $115 earlier in the session after reports of strikes on Iran's Kharg Island — the hub of roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports — before the diplomatic breakthrough reversed the move.After a muted regular session where the S&P 500 eked out a 0.1% gain, and the Dow fell 0.2%, futures exploded higher post-ceasefire announcement. S&P 500 futures jumped 2.2% to 6,804, Nasdaq futures rallied 2.7%, and Dow futures surged 2%, as investors priced in hopes of a durable peace deal and resumption of Gulf oil flows.Spot gold climbed 2.5% to $4,821 per ounce, its highest level since March 19, as the weaker dollar made bullion cheaper for foreign holders. Silver surged 4.7% to $77 per ounce, while platinum gained 2.5%, with all three precious metals benefiting from the risk-on shift and dollar softness following the ceasefire.The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee wraps up its meeting today and will announce its decision at 10:00 AM. The market expects the RBI's MPC to maintain the repo rate at 5.25%.A neutral stance is likely to persist, balancing global risks such as tensions in West Asia with domestic liquidity support, and avoiding further cuts unless growth falters.The Nifty rose 155 points yesterday to close at 23,123, marking its fourth consecutive gain. The Indian rupee extended its four-session winning run, gaining 5 paise to 93.01, fueled by lower crude prices, domestic equity recovery, and RBI-driven unwinding of bank arbitrage positions.Nifty has closed above its 10-day EMA for the first time since the U.S.-Iran-Israel War erupted, also topping last week's high. The short-term trend has reversed, with resistance near 23,800-24000 and support at yesterday's low of 22,719.Indian markets are poised for a strong surge at the open following the announcement of a ceasefire in Iran, easing geopolitical tensions and boosting investors' risk appetite.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryMarkets Brace as Trump's Iran Ultimatum NearsGlobal markets are on high alert as a critical geopolitical deadline approaches. Investors are focused on President Donald Trump’s 8:00 PM ET (6:30 AM IST, Wednesday) ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with threats of military escalation if a deal is not reached.WTI Crude Oil climbed to $115 as President Trump reaffirmed his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges. The Strait, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil flows, has remained disrupted since the conflict began on February 28, driving crude prices up approximately 90% year-to-date.Iran dismissed a U.S.-backed 45-day ceasefire proposal supported by mediators including Pakistan, Egypt, and Türkiye, instead demanding a permanent end to hostilities, sanctions relief, and war damage compensation. U.S. stocks advanced on Monday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.44%, the Nasdaq rising 0.54%, and the Dow adding 165 points, as investors parsed mixed signals on Iran negotiations. However, overnight futures retreated as Trump's escalating rhetoric dampened optimism for a ceasefire.The rupee appreciated by 4 paise supported by risk-on sentiment fuelled by hopes of a de-escalation in the Middle East.The Nifty climbed 255 points to close at 22,968, marking its third consecutive session of gains. Nifty has never risen for more than three consecutive trading sessions since the U.S-Iran War started in late February. Whether this streak holds or breaks will be the defining market moment of today's session. The short-term resistance for the Nifty is at 23,465, with supports at 22,800 and 22,540.Our markets are slated to open half a percent lower on the back of cautious global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryMarkets Pin Hope on Early Resolution to the Hormuz CrisisThe weekend offered no respite - fighting in the Iran–Israel–U.S. conflict intensified, peace talks made no headway, with President Donald Trump sharply escalating rhetoric on social media.President Donald Trump has repeatedly extended his self‑imposed deadlines for bombing Iran’s civilian infrastructure to April 7. In his latest social‑media posts, he has framed these extensions as temporary respites, warning that if Iran does not comply by the new deadline, he will unleash “Power Plant Day and Bridge Day” targeting power plants, bridges, and other critical civil infrastructure.US markets ended the holiday-shortened week higher, snapping a five-week losing streak amid volatility from US-Iran tensions and oil price surges. Major indices posted strong weekly gains last week - S&P 500 +3.4%, Dow +3.0%, Nasdaq +4.4%.The U.S. economy generated 178,000 jobs in March, well above economists’ consensus expectations and rebounding from the previous month’s revised net loss of 133,000 jobs.Indian equity benchmarks ended the shortened week marginally lower, with the Sensex and Nifty closing around 73320 and 22713, respectively, after a sharp intraday recovery on Thursday. The week saw heavy volatility, beginning with deep corrections on global geopolitical worries and crude oil spikes, but sentiment improved in the latter sessions, halting a multi‑week losing streak for the indices. Sectorally, IT stocks outperformed while banking and financials remained under pressure, reflecting selective risk‑on flows and ongoing caution in broader midcap and small‑cap segments.The RBI's MPC meeting is the key event of the week, as it will be the first since the war. The U.S. and several Gulf states have publicly pushed for mediation, with Qatar, Egypt, and Türkiye positioning themselves as potential intermediaries.Negotiations are underway for a 45‑day ceasefire, but no concrete breakthrough has emerged. Donald Trump expressed optimism in a recent social media post that a deal with Iran is imminent, extending the negotiation deadline to Tuesday at 8:00 PM EST (early Wednesday morning Indian time). The development signals a potential de-escalation in tensions. Should a truce materialise, markets — which have seen notable corrections recently — could be poised for a meaningful rebound.Indian markets are likely to open flat, digesting the latest geopolitical developments.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryTrump vows to hit Iran ‘extremely hard’ within weeks, Crude oil surges 5% on Trump's defiant toneIn his address to the nation, President Trump declared that U.S. military objectives in Iran are “nearing completion” and that the war could wind down in about two to three weeks, assuming continued pressure and ongoing talksTrump also struck a defiant tone on energy and global markets, insisting the U.S. will not bear the burden of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and arguing that American strength has forced Iran into a weakened position after a month‑long conflict.Oil prices jumped over 4% after President Trump's prime-time address failed to offer a clear timeline for ending the U.S.-Iran war, with Trump vowing to hit Iran 'extremely hard' over the coming weeks. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, disrupting an estimated 10–15 million barrels per day of supply — the largest oil supply shock in history by volume.U.S. equities advanced yesterday for a second straight session as diplomatic signals eased tensions in the Middle East. The S&P 500 gained 0.7%, the Nasdaq rose roughly 1.2%, and the Dow added 224 points, or 0.48%Shares of Eli Lilly climbed more than 6% after the FDA cleared a new weight-loss medication with no food or water restrictions. Rival Novo Nordisk edged 0.2% lower following the announcementNifty staged a relief rally yesterday, gaining 348 points to close at 22,679 on optimism that the war that has jolted global markets and disrupted energy supplies may be nearing a conclusion. 22,283 will act as a key support, while upside resistance looms at 23,000.Our markets are poised to open nearly 2% lower on rising fears of intensified military action in the coming weeks.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryGeopolitical Risk Takes Centre Stage, RBI Comes to the Rupee RescueU.S. equity markets ended last week on a negative note, with the S&P 500 down about 2.1% and the Nasdaq Composite slipping about 3.2%, marking the Nasdaq's worst weekly performance since the start of the U.S.–Iran conflict. The S&P 500 closed at 6,369, suffering its fifth consecutive weekly loss and entering its longest losing streak in nearly four years.Equity weakness was driven largely by renewed tensions in the Middle East, with Iran‑related headlines and fears of a prolonged conflict weighing heavily on risk appetite.Rate‑sensitive sectors bore the brunt of the sell‑off. Overall, the week underscored a shift toward risk‑off positioning, with traders repricing the odds of an extended geopolitical standoff and higher-for‑longer rates.Crude Oil jumped after Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi launched missile and drone strikes on Israel over the weekend, widening the Middle East conflict. Brent crude surged, putting it on track for a record monthly gain as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, disrupting an estimated 15–16 million barrels of daily oil flow.Over the past 48 hours, the war between Israel, the United States, and Iran in the Gulf has intensified, with fresh missile and drone attacks across the region amid stalled diplomacy. Iran has continued to fire missiles and drones at Israeli‑held territory and Gulf‑based US military facilities, while Israel and the US have carried out retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and nuclear‑related sites. The conflict has left the Strait of Hormuz under intermittent Iranian naval pressure, with ripple effects unsettling global energy markets.US‑backed diplomatic outreach and Gulf‑led shuttle diplomacy have gained modest momentum, but no ceasefire or de‑escalation has been announced yet.Indian benchmarks extended their decline for the fifth consecutive week, marking one of the most prolonged periods of weakness in recent times. The Indian Rupee hit a fresh record low on Friday, touching the 93.98 level against the US Dollar, further dampening investor confidence.RBI comes to the Rupee Rescue: The RBI imposed a uniform $100 million limit on the net open foreign exchange positions of banks, replacing the previous flexible cap of 25% of capital to stifle speculative "long-dollar" bets. Banks have been directed to unwind large currency positions by April 10, a move designed to trigger a temporary surge in dollar supply and provide immediate relief to the Rupee. RBI shifted its strategy from direct market intervention to regulatory tightening to preserve its "war chest."Indian equity markets face a weak open, with a 1% to 1.5% drop expected amid flaring geopolitical tensions and a spike in crude oil prices. Technically, 23,465 remains a key resistance level, with 22,471 as the nearest support.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryTrump announces 10-Day Pause on Strikes, A Reprieve for Oil and Markets President Trump announced a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, extending the deadline to April 6 and offering markets near-term relief — though substantial uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz closure persists.Brent crude and WTI each fell nearly 1% in early trading, a brief respite following the prior session's 5% surge driven by supply disruption fears.The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 25% of global oil and LNG transits — has pushed Brent futures up approximately 40% and WTI up over 30% since hostilities began on February 28.US equity markets deteriorated sharply on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 1.7% — its steepest single-session decline since the conflict's onset — while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.4%, slipping into correction territory. Losses deepened as investors grew increasingly concerned about the conflict's implications for inflation and growth.The 10-year US yield climbed to 4.41% — its highest closing level since July 2024 — while the 2-year yield reached its highest point since June 2025, as traders reassessed the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may be forced to delay rate cuts.Despite the equity rebound, the Indian rupee remains under pressure, hovering near record lows of approximately ₹94.1 against the dollar. The currency's weakness reflects sustained foreign institutional outflows, which totalled nearly $11 billion in March alone — underscoring persistent macroeconomic anxiety even as near-term energy price fears have partially abated.Indian equity markets reopen today, March 27, following the Ram Navami holiday. Heading into the break, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 posted gains exceeding 1.6%, buoyed by broad-based buying and stabilising global cues — though persistent geopolitical tensions are likely to keep sentiment in check.The recent pullback has nudged the Nifty back above its 10-day SMA (23,240) — its first close above that level since the drawdown sparked by the West Asia conflict. Key support has shifted higher to 23060, with resistance clustered in the 23378–23618 zone.Indian markets are poised to open around 0.5% lower on weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryMarkets Celebrate Trump's Peace OverturesU.S. stock indexes posted their best single-day performance since early February, after a five-day pause in planned military strikes against Iranian infrastructure. The Dow gained over 630 points, the S&P 500 rose 1.15%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.38%. Iranian state media, however, denied that any direct negotiations had taken place.Oil markets reversed, a relief that lifted airline and cruise line stocks, which had been under pressure from soaring fuel costs. Asia-Pacific markets rallied sharply on Tuesday. South Korea's Kospi surged 3.5%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 advanced 2.2%, aided by data showing headline inflation fell to 1.3% in February — its lowest reading since March 2022 — giving the Bank of Japan room to hold off on rate hikes.The diplomatic shift pulled capital out of safe-haven assets. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.34%, and gold briefly dropped toward $4,100 an ounce before stabilising near $4400 as investors rotated back into equities.Indian equity markets suffered a significant crash yesterday as geopolitical friction between the U.S. and Iran intensified. The Sensex plunged over 1,800 points, while the Nifty dropped approximately 2.6% to settle near the 22512 level, driven by widespread risk aversion across nearly all sectors.The Indian rupee fell to a record low of 93.94 against the U.S. dollar. This depreciation is largely attributed to escalating import energy costs for India and sustained capital outflows from foreign portfolio investors who have withdrawn over ₹1 trillion so far this year.Fitch Ratings has increased India's economic growth projection for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to 7.5%, citing robust domestic demand and infrastructure investment. Despite the previous session's heavy losses, early indicators suggest a positive opening for Indian markets. The GIFT Nifty is indicating a 1.5% higher opening, reflecting a potential recovery following reports of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.Equity markets have corrected roughly 15% from their recent highs, driven by geopolitical uncertainties. While there are early signs of a potential truce, the outcome of these peace talks cannot be predicted with certainty. If one waits for a complete cessation of hostilities before acting, current price levels may no longer be available. It is therefore prudent to begin deploying capital into markets where stocks have corrected sufficiently, and valuations offer an adequate margin of safety. A reasonable strategy would be to deploy at least 25% of the capital you have been holding in reserve for the right opportunity. That opportunity is now — the time has come to begin taking measured risks.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryBeginning of the End of War?Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel is supporting U.S. efforts to reopen the Strait, would not strike Iranian oil and gas targets again, and that the war could end sooner than expected. His "verge of victory" remarks lifted risk assets as markets priced in a shorter conflict — though volatility persisted, with reports of renewed Iranian missile launches emerging even as he spoke.U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, but recovered sharply from session lows following Israel's pledge to halt strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and President Trump's confirmation that there would be no ground troop deployments. Equity futures edged higher Thursday night on the back of Netanyahu's remarks.U.S. oil prices extended their decline after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled that Washington may soon lift sanctions on Iranian crude held aboard tankers, aiming to relieve price pressures following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.In a joint statement, the U.S., Britain, Canada, France, Germany, and Japan affirmed their readiness to help ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.Markets remained under pressure as investors weighed a hawkish Federal Reserve against ongoing tensions in the Gulf region. Assets sold off broadly — bonds, equities, and metals — as tit-for-tat strikes on regional energy infrastructure drove prices sharply higher.After three sessions of pullback, the Nifty resumed its downtrend, plunging 775 points (3.26%) to close at 23002 yesterday — its steepest single-session drop in percentage terms since April 7, 2025.As anticipated in yesterday's commentary, the Nifty found support at the lower end of the 22,923–23,207 band — and is now poised to rebound toward the upper end today.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryStocks surge on crude oil pullbackStocks rebounded sharply on Monday after several consecutive sessions of notable losses, with all major averages closing higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the advance.The indexes finished off their intraday highs but remained strongly positive. The Nasdaq surged 268 points, or 1.2%, to 22,374; the S&P 500 jumped 67 points, or 1%, to 6,699; and the Dow advanced 387 points, or 0.8%, to 46946.It was the market's strongest session since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran. Easing oil prices reduced immediate concerns over energy-driven inflation and its drag on economic growth. The technology and travel sectors led broad gains. Norwegian Cruise Line rose 5%, and United Airlines climbed 4%, both benefiting from lower fuel costs.Semiconductor stocks were among the session's standout performers in the technology sector. NVIDIA and Micron posted notable gains as investors reassessed geopolitical risks to global supply chains and demand for digital infrastructure.The surge in crude prices this month is likely to shift the inflation outlook and lead most central banks to hold rates steady at their policy meetings this ​week.The Federal Reserve opened its March 17–18 policy meeting today, with markets broadly expecting rates to hold at 3.50–3.75%. Investor focus is on the updated dot plot, as energy-driven inflation has reduced 2026 rate-cut expectations from three to one.Nifty snapped a three-day losing streak in a session defined by extreme volatility. Having corrected nearly 13% from its all-time high, Nifty found support in the gap band of 22,923–23,207, setting the stage for a potential pullback rally. This rebound was driven by bargain hunting in heavyweights across the banking, auto, and FMCG sectors, despite ongoing volatility stemming from geopolitical tensions in West Asia.On the upside, 23,700 emerges as a key resistance to monitor. A decisive break below 22,923 would signal a resumption of the downtrend.Indian equity markets are set to open on a firm note, supported by favourable global cues.Foreign investors are sitting on sizable short positions, and any unwinding of those bets could trigger a short-term rally.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentarySome Semblance of Sanity.Amid the global fuel crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said the strait “remains open" to most vessels and is only closed to ships belonging to the United States, Israel.This is likely to restore a measure of stability to international energy markets and ease pressure on global financial markets.The Indian stock market endured one of its most punishing weeks in recent memory.The broad-based sell off was not confined to equities alone; the Indian Rupee simultaneously collapsed to a fresh record low, and foreign institutional money exited at a pace not seen since early 2025.US stock markets declined during the last week amid escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation pressures.In just the first half of the month, FPIs offloaded more than ₹52,700 crore worth of Indian equities — a staggering figure that underscores how quickly global sentiment can reverse capital flows into emerging markets.The near-term outlook for Indian markets hinges on two critical variables: the trajectory of the Middle East conflict and the direction of global crude oil prices.Indian markets are likely to open a modestly higher on easing energy prices concerns.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryWall Street ends sharply lower as Iran war intensifiesAll three major U.S. indexes closed at their lowest points of 2026. The Dow Jones fell more than 700 points to settle below 47,000 for the first time this year, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sold off sharply after Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, deepening fears of a protracted conflict.Iranian strikes on two oil tankers sent crude surging toward $100 per barrel, compounding inflation fears and driving investors out of equities.WTI Crude surged past $95 — a nearly 10% single-day gain — while Brent breached $100, its highest close since August 2022. The IEA reported that 7.5% of global oil supply has been disrupted, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at below 10% of pre-war levels as Iran vows not to let "a litre of oil" pass through.The Federal Reserve convenes on March 17. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, but its updated economic projections will be scrutinised for revised inflation estimates — the crude spike from the now 13-day-old conflict has yet to filter through the data.Asian stocks slumped on Friday, headed for a second straight weekly decline as fading hopes of a swift resolution kept oil prices elevated. The U.S. dollar, the safe-haven of choice, was set for a second consecutive weekly gain and is up 2% since the conflict began in late February. The Dollar Index surged toward 100, pushing EUR/USD down to around 1.1530 — well off its year-to-date high of 1.2080 — while AUD/USD fell sharply below 0.7100, reversing from recent multi-year highs.Money market futures now price in just one-quarter-point cut by December, down from two before the conflict, as rate-cut expectations have roughly halved — from 66 basis points to around 30 — in two weeks.The Trump administration has directed U.S. oil companies and shippers to prepare for a possible waiver of the century-old Jones Act, which governs domestic maritime commerce, in an effort to contain rising fuel costs.After hitting a record low of 92.36, the rupee clawed back to end 15 paise weaker at 92.19, buoyed by RBI intervention.Equity markets extended their losing streak for a second consecutive session yesterday, with the Nifty 50 falling 227 points or 0.95% to settle at 23,639.Nifty’s close at the lowest level in the recent downturn underscores the prevailing bearish momentum. The Nifty trend remains weak, with immediate support at 23,500 and 23,210. On the upside, the 24000 – 24100 zone remains a formidable ceiling for any recovery attempts.Indian equity markets are set for a sharply lower open as surging crude oil prices weigh on sentiment.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryGeopolitical Uncertainties Keeps Markets on Edge.Crude oil fell sharply after reports that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is preparing its largest-ever emergency release to address the ongoing supply shortage. The Paris-based body, comprising 32 member states and 13 associate countries, represents up to 75% of global energy demand. Brent Crude oil is currently trading near $90 from its Monday spike near $120 per barrel. U.S. equities lost momentum on Tuesday as the S&P 500 surrendered early gains to close negative, with the Dow turning lower as well, while the Nasdaq eked out a marginal gain. Markets were unsettled by fading hopes for an early end to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and stagflation concerns — compounded after President Trump threatened retaliation over reports of Iran mining the Strait of Hormuz and demanded Iran's unconditional surrender.Fresh Iranian strikes and mixed White House messaging continued to cloud the outlook. A tanker explosion near Abu Dhabi further reignited Middle East uncertainty, erasing earlier gains. The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose 1.8%, snapping a three-session losing streak, as retreating oil prices eased inflation and jet fuel concerns. Airline stocks led the rebound — Lufthansa and Air France surging approximately 7% and 5% respectively — while Volkswagen rose over 3% despite a 53% year-on-year drop in operating profit.Asian markets are higher today as easing oil prices lifted sentiment. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 2% while South Korea's Kospi advanced 3%, recovering a portion of the steep losses sustained earlier in the week, as oil prices pulled back on hopes that emergency crude reserves would be tapped to offset supply disruptions.President Trump announced that Reliance Industries will back oil refinery at the Port of Brownsville, Texas — the first new U.S. refinery in 50 years, framing it as the largest deal in U.S. history. After two days of sharp declines, the Nifty staged a strong rebound, closing higher by 233 points or 0.97% at 24,261 yesterday. Nifty stagged a pullback amid strong global cues, reclaiming over 500 points from recent low of 23697. On the higher side, immediate resistance is placed in the 24300-24415 band while 24000 is likely to act as immediate support.Indian markets are poised to open moderately lower in line with subdued US market cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryA Crude Waiver Paves the Way for Rupee RevivalThe U.S. Treasury Department issued a 30-day waiver permitting Indian refiners to purchase Russian crude already in transit. The exemption allows those shipments to proceed notwithstanding existing sanctions on Russia's energy sector. The move is intended to ease pressure on global oil markets amid rising geopolitical tensions.Major US stock markets staged a notable recovery attempt in the final hour of trading but still closed in negative territory. The Dow fell 784.67 points, or 1.6%, to 47,954; the S&P 500 slid 38.79 points, or 0.6%, to 6,830; and the Nasdaq declined 58.50 points, or 0.3%, to 22748.Elevated energy costs reignited inflation concerns. The CBOE VIX spiked 18%, reflecting heightened investor fear, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.13% — its highest in three weeks — as selling intensified, and markets reassessed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.European natural gas futures surged nearly 70% over the week after Qatar suspended liquefied natural gas loadings following Iranian drone strikes on its primary export facilities. Gas stockpiles across Europe have fallen to multi-year lows, and even December 2026 contracts rose around 40% as traders positioned for a prolonged tightening in global gas supply.Asian equity markets are attempting a recovery from Friday's lower levels. Despite the broad selloff, investor conviction around AI infrastructure in Taiwan and South Korea remains intact.Gold traded above $5100 per ounce, as the escalating Middle East conflict drove safe-haven demand. Investors shifted increasingly into precious metals and the Japanese yen to hedge geopolitical tail risks, with gold further supported by falling real rates and persistent uncertainty over global energy supply.Indian Rupee reclaimed most of Wednesday’s losses, appreciating by 55 paise on Thursday. This recovery was supported by suspected central bank intervention and a recovery in risk assets. The rupee also benefited from a pullback in the US dollar and energy prices. Currency markets will breathe a sigh of relief as India secures a crude oil import waiver.Indian equity markets are poised to open lower today on soft global cues. For Nifty, short-term support now rests at the recent swing low of 24,305, while the 24,850-24,990 zone serves as resistance.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryOil Soars as Middle East Conflict Widens, Global markets sell off as disruption of Middle East energy supplies threatens to reignite inflationFinancial markets turned sharply risk-off on Tuesday as mounting fears of an inflation surge rippled across stocks and bonds worldwide.Global equities slid as disruptions to Middle East energy supplies threatened to reignite price pressures. Crude oil gained around 5%, while European wholesale natural gas surged a punishing 40%.United StatesAfter opening sharply lower for the second consecutive session, US stocks staged a partial recovery but failed to match Monday's resilience, ending the day notably in the red. The major averages clawed well off their intraday lows yet remained firmly in negative territory.The Dow Jones closed down 403 points or 0.8%, at 48,502, having plummeted more than 1,200 points earlier in the session to its lowest intraday level in nearly three months. The Nasdaq fell 232 points or 1%, to 22,516, and the S&P 500 slid 64 points or 0.9%, to 6,816 — both indexes having plunged as much as 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively, touching three-month lows at their worst.WTI crude climbed above $75 a barrel, extending a two-day gain of approximately 11%. Brent traded near $81 a barrel as the widening Middle East conflict and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz kept supply risks firmly in focus.IndiaEvery $1 increase in crude oil raises India's annual import bill by approximately $2 billion.Data indicate that a 10% rise in crude prices could raise the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) by 40 to 80 basis points, while widening the current account deficit by approximately 30 basis points. Beyond the energy sector, the paints, lubricants, aviation, and chemicals industries will face significant margin pressure, as oil and its derivatives account for 40% to 70% of their total raw material costs.Prolonged tensions among the United States, Israel, and Iran are mounting pressure on India across its current account, inflation outlook, and currency stability. Elevated crude prices stand to raise the country's import bill, widen its current account deficit, weaken the rupee, stoke inflation, and trigger foreign capital outflows.Indian markets are expected to open 2–2.5% lower as leveraged positions are unwound amid the geopolitical developments of the past two days.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryIsrael-Iran Conflict Rattles Global MarketsIsrael's preemptive strike on Iran, carried out jointly with the US, has ignited geopolitical fears and driven global markets to open on a weak footing. Israeli-US military operations entered their third day with casualties reported on all sides, marking the most severe regional conflict in decades.US stock futures fell sharply as the Iran–US conflict escalated into a broader Middle East war, triggering another spike in oil prices. Dow Jones futures slid approximately 550 points, S&P 500 futures dropped 63 points, and Nasdaq futures declined roughly 270 points in early Monday action.Oil prices recorded their steepest single-session jump in four years after escalating US–Israeli military strikes against Iran shook global energy markets and effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Prices had initially surged more than 8% to multi-month highs as Iran and Israel intensified attacks, damaging tankers and disrupting shipments from the key producing region. Gains have since moderated to around 5%.Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow chokepoint off Iran's coast through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and significant volumes of natural gas transit — has come to an abrupt halt, as tanker owners and commodity traders suspend operations pending clarity on the widening conflict.Gold rose more than 2%, in early sessions, as renewed Middle East hostilities drove investors toward traditional safe-haven assets. The move extended the prior week's gain of over 3%, itself fueled by the growing deployment of US forces in the region.Asian equities slid approximately 1.5%, with futures on major US and European indices also pulling back in the wake of the US–Israeli military action against Iran.China's Two Sessions - Markets will also keep an eye on China’s annual “Two Sessions” meetings from March 4–11, where the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) is expected to be unveiled. The plan is likely to set a lower growth target in the 4.5–5% range for 2026, down from around 5 per cent last year, alongside a moderately expansionary fiscal stance, with the deficit ratio steady at 4 per cent of GDP.Indian Auto stocks will react to the February numbers announced yesterday. Nifty is poised to open 0.5%–0.7% lower, with selling pressure concentrated in oil-sensitive sectors — aviation, automobiles, and tyres — against a broad risk-off backdrop. The Rupee faces headwinds from rising import costs for energy. Markets are likely to find their footing after the initial weakness, as leveraged positions are unwound through the truncated trading week.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryNasdaq Pulls Back Sharply as Nvidia Slumps, but Dow Inches Higher.The benchmark S&P 500 and European equities finished lower as investors digested another blowout quarter from Nvidia — the world's most valuable company — yet remained uneasy about its valuation even as the chipmaker forecast first-quarter revenue of $78 billion.The retreat on Wall Street was driven largely by a negative reaction to Nvidia's earnings, with the AI chipmaker tumbling 5.5%. Despite reporting better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results and issuing upbeat guidance, Nvidia failed to satisfy elevated investor expectations, dragging semiconductor stocks lower and souring broader market sentiment. The Dow's modest gain was cushioned by a sharp rise in Salesforce shares, which surged 4% after the customer relationship software maker reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results.Diminishing case for an early easingThe path for Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh to deliver the swift rate cuts President Donald Trump has called for appears to be narrowing. Emerging economic resilience — rising CEO confidence, investor positioning around a hawkish shift among Fed policymakers — is complicating the case for early easing. The IMF reinforced this view on Wednesday, noting that with U.S. growth expected to reach 2.4% this year from 2.2% last year, unemployment hovering near 4%, and inflation declining gradually, the Fed would have "only modest scope to lower the policy rate over the coming year" — likely just a single quarter-percentage-point cut.Tech heavy asian indices fell in tandem with the NASDAQA global equity index retreated after touching a record high on Thursday, as lofty technology valuations weighed on sentiment following Nvidia's results. In currency markets, the US Dollar Index recovered to 97.9, with the greenback gaining 0.5% against the British pound amid speculation of a March Bank of England rate cut Tech-heavy indices in Japan and South Korea fell in tandem with the Nasdaq, reflecting deepening concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally.Nifty spent yesterday's session within a narrow 170-point range throughout the day, with low volatility, barring a couple of intraday swings. Nifty remained directionless, with no momentum on either side. A band of 25650-25700 would remain an immediate hurdle, while 25250-25350 could offer support for Nifty in the short term. A breakout from this range could finally provide the catalyst for a sustained move.Indian markets are poised to open subdued on softer global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryWall Street stocks tumbled on fears of AI-driven disruption All three major U.S. indexes closed more than 1% lower in a broad selloff, as risk appetite was weighed down by two converging forces - persistent concerns over AI's disruptive potential and President Trump's erratic trade policy, which has been a primary source of market volatility throughout the first year of his second term.The Dow Jones plunged 822 points, or 1.7%, as investors digested Trump's newly imposed 15% global tariff — a measure prompted by the Supreme Court's Friday ruling that struck down his emergency tariff authority. Renewed anxiety over AI disruption across software, consulting, and payments triggered broad-based selling. The S&P 500 fell 1%, slipping back into negative territory for 2026.IBM led the declines, crashing 13%, its steepest single-day loss since October 2000 and its worst performance in more than 25 years — after Anthropic unveiled Claude Code, an AI tool capable of modernising Cobol, the legacy programming language that underpins IBM's core business. Accenture and Cognizant fell sharply in sympathy, and software stocks faced heavy selling pressure across the board. Financials were the worst-performing S&P 500 sector, dropping 3% in their steepest decline since April. The selloff was partly triggered by Blue Owl Capital's suspension of redemptions, which reignited concerns about the fragility of private credit markets. KKR fell 9%, American Express declined 7.7%, and Capital One dropped 7.5%.China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a ninth consecutive month. The one-year loan prime rate held at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%. Asian equity markets opened tentatively today, rattled by Wall Street's overnight losses and clouded by uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy and rising geopolitical tensions.Crude oil edged up to $66.52 a barrel, supported by the resumption of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks on Thursday against a backdrop of American military buildup in the Middle East. The Nifty extended its winning streak for a second consecutive session, climbing 141 points to settle at 25,713. The index opened firmly higher after the US Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling struck down President Trump's broad emergency tariffs, but corrected nearly 160 points from its morning peak of 25,771 to hit 25,609 before rebounding over 110 points. Nifty failed to clear the 25,885 resistance. A decisive move above it could propel Nifty toward 26,000, while 25,370 remains a key support level.Indian markets are poised to open lower amid cautious global cues. We anticipate a recovery from lower levels, supported by continued short covering on the monthly derivative expiry day and emerging buying interest from FPIs in the cash markets.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryIran War Clouds Send Markets SlidingWall Street ended lower on Thursday, with losses in private equity companies and weakness in Walmart and Apple, while earnings-driven gains in industrials limited losses.The weakness on Wall Street partly reflected a negative reaction to Walmart's earnings, with the retail giant slumping 1.4 per cent. The company provided weaker-than-expected earnings guidance for the current year.Negative sentiment may also have been driven by a continued spike in crude oil prices amid concerns of a military conflict between the U.S. and Iran.The major averages finished the day off their lows of the session but still in negative territory. The Dow slid 267 points to 49,395, the Nasdaq fell 70 points to 22682, and the S&P 500 dipped 19 points to 6861.President Donald Trump said Thursday that he will decide whether to launch military strikes against Iran in the next 10 days.Private equity companies slid after Blue Owl Capital announced it would sell $1.4 billion in assets and freeze redemptions at one of its funds to manage debt and return capital.  Blue Owl tumbled 6%. Apollo Global Management, Ares, KKR & Co and Carlyle Group all fell between 1.9% and 5.2% as Blue Owl's troubles added to recent worries about credit quality and lenders' exposure to software stocks.The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in December amid a surge in imports, and the goods shortfall in 2025 was the highest on record despite tariffs on foreign-manufactured merchandise.Crude oil jumped above $66 as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran escalated, reaching its highest level since July after climbing more than 7% over two days. The market is pricing in potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately 20% of global oil supply, amid a significant US military buildup in the Middle East.The US Dollar Index rose to its highest level in over a week, near 97.80, after FOMC minutes revealed that officials are not rushing to cut rates, with several policymakers noting potential hikes if inflation remains elevated. The hawkish tone pressured EUR/USD down 0.11% to $1.18 and drove gains against most major currencies.Gold prices remained above $5,000 per troy ounce, supported by escalating US-Iran tensions and geopolitical uncertainty, despite a stronger dollar. The precious metal gained over 2% in the previous session as investors sought safety amid potential military action in the Middle East and failed peace talks between the US and Iran and Russia and Ukraine.Asian markets opened lower today, following Wall Street's decline, as sentiment was dampened by the military buildup in the Middle East and concerns over oil supply disruptions.The Nifty snapped its three-session winning streak yesterday, plunging 1.4% to close at 25,454, its lowest close since the Budget session (February 03, 2026). Below 25372, Nifty could extend its fall towards its 200-day EMA placed at 25233. On the higher side, the 25550-25600 band could act as short-term resistance.Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher in line with positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning CommentaryMarkets Inch Up Amid AI Cost ConcernsU.S. stocks edged higher Tuesday after a sluggish open, lifted by a rebound in technology shares and support from financials.Amazon shares swung violently after shedding roughly $450 billion in market value over nine consecutive sessions. Investors are scrutinising the company's plan to spend $200 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026—a nearly 60% increase that significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations.US Futures are pointing lower, with Nasdaq 100 futures declining amid concerns about AI's disruption across industries and the burden of heavy capital spending.Gold slipped to $4,919 per ounce yesterday as metals markets stayed cautious ahead of key U.S. data releases: industrial production and the Fed's January meeting minutes today, PCE inflation on Friday. December personal income and spending figures will also draw attention, as they carry the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.Crude oil fell to $62.25 per barrel, while Brent declined to $68.13, ahead of U.S.-Iran ministerial negotiations.The New Zealand dollar weakened after the central bank signalled that monetary policy must remain accommodative to sustain the economic recovery.Most Asian markets are closed due to lunar holidays, while Japanese equities are trading higher today despite lingering AI-driven anxiety in global markets.Despite a weak start yesterday on a weekly expiry day, the index staged an intraday turnaround, surging over 150 points from its morning lows. The rebound was broad-based, with nearly all sectoral indices finishing in the green.Nifty managed to register follow-up gains in yesterday's trade. Next resistance for the Nifty is seen near 26000, while levels of 25570 and 25372 could offer support in the near term.Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher in line with positive global cues.