Carnegie Connects

In the first year of his second term, President Donald Trump has pursued an aggressive foreign policy that has shattered the norms and conventions that have guided almost all of his Republican and Democratic predecessors. Although the administration has framed this as an “America first” agenda that will strengthen the nation’s standing around the world and bring prosperity at home, the U.S. national interest now appears tethered to the president’s personal vanities, prejudices, and his political and financial interests. Is the recently articulated National Security Strategy a reliable guide as to how the administration will act going forward? Does the recent use of military power in Venezuela represent a one-off headline or does it foreshadow more aggressive action under the “Donroe Doctrine”? And is this the sunsetting of once traditional U.S. values and the rise of foreign policy driven by displaying American power and might?Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Council on Foreign Relations’ Rebecca Lissner and the Stimson Center’s Emma Ashford on these and other issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.

The decision by the U.S. President Donald Trump administration to seize Venezuelan President Nicholás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, to stand trial in the United States reflects the administration’s willingness to undertake a muscular intervention in the Western Hemisphere. Delcy Rodríguez, who served as Maduro’s vice president since 2018, has taken over as the interim president and seems to be on an uncertain path forward working with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, Trump’s statement that the United States plans to “run” Venezuela until a permanent, stable transition can be realized raises more questions than it answers, in Venezuela and about U.S. foreign policy at large.  What precisely are the Trump administration’s objectives in Venezuela? Was this a law enforcement operation or a serious effort to create a new political reality in Venezuela? Who are the key Venezuelan players the United States needs to engage and what is the role of the Venezuelan military? And what are the administration’s intentions toward the Venezuelan oil industry and the role of American companies? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the International Crisis Group’s Phil Gunson, the Baker Institute’s Francisco Monaldi, and Johns Hopkins SAIS’s Cindy Arnson on these and other issues, on the next Carnegie Connects. 

As 2025 draws to a close, the fate of the Trump administration’s twenty point plan to end the war in Gaza, disarming Hamas and withdrawing Israeli forces, and facilitate good governance, security and reconstruction, has run headlong into harsh Middle Eastern realities. The administration is promising a transition to phase two by the end of the year, but the status of the International Stabilization Force and an on the ground Palestinian governing structure seem more theoretical than real. What are the chances of implementation of the Trump plan, particularly on security? What, or who, will actually govern Gaza? And what of the other U.S. efforts in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran? Join Aaron David Miller as he addresses these issues and others with Carnegie’s Marwan Muasher, Israel Policy Forum’s Nimrod Novik, and former Palestinian Authority adviser Manal Zeidan, on the next Carnegie Connects. 

It’s no coincidence that the framers—reflecting the importance of the legislative branch—laid out the responsibilities and powers of Congress in Article I, with the executive second, and the judiciary third. And yet as 2025 draws to a close, the role of Congress seems overshadowed by the other branches.What’s happened to skew the balance of power the founders intended? Does Congress still matter when it comes to shaping domestic policy and constraining the aggrandizement of presidential power? And on foreign policy, traditionally the purview of the executive branch, what role can, and should, Congress play? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Senator Chris Van Hollen, who sits on the Budget, Appropriations, and Foreign Relations Committees, on the next Carnegie Connects.

Perhaps no country in the Middle East has attracted more interest of the Trump administration than Saudi Arabia. President Trump took his first foreign trip there during his first term and he remains focused on the possibility of Israeli-Saudi normalization as part of a regional peace agreement in pursuit of a Nobel Peace prize. The visit of Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman (MBS) to the White House on November 18 has focused even more attention on the U.S.-Saudi relationship.What are realistic expectations for the visit? What are the upsides, and down, of a reportedly discussed U.S.-Saudi defense pact? And what is Saudi Arabia prepared to do to facilitate the president’s plan for Gaza and to tackle the broader challenge of regional peace? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Michael Ratney, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, and Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, on the MBS visit to Washington and the road ahead for U.S.-Saudi relations on the next Carnegie Connects. 

From covering the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and South Sudan, to examining America’s evolving status on the global stage, to mounting concerns about American democracy under the Trump Administration, Pulitzer Prize winning journalist and New York Times opinion columnist Nicholas Kristof has had plenty to cover throughout 2025. Kristof’s columns always inspire discussion and debate about the most pressing issues of our time.  Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Kristof for one such discussion on the next Carnegie Connects, as they take a grand tour of the state and fate of the American Republic at home and abroad.

As President Donald Trump prepares for his upcoming trip to South Korea to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be on the agenda. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung first suggested the meeting during his recent trip to Washington. Trump and Kim seem open to the possibility, with one major caveat: Kim has stated publicly that discussions of denuclearization are off the table. Whether or not that meeting occurs, North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal and deepening relationships with Russia and China are a persistent challenge for Washington.How should the second Trump administration alter, or maintain, its approach to North Korea?  Is Washington reading Kim and the internal politics of Pyongyang correctly? And what role should China and South Korea play in U.S. strategy?Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Jean H. Lee, the presidential chair of the East-West Center, and Joel S. Wit, a distinguished fellow in Asian and Security Studies at the Stimson Center, on these and other issues. 

As we enter the third year of the Israel-Hamas conflict, the Trump administration has offered up a plan to end the war in Gaza. But can it be implemented? The goals of the Netanyahu government and Hamas seem all but irreconcilable. Meanwhile, the hostages and the Palestinian civilian population of Gaza continue to endure horrific conditions. How does the war end? What does the future hold for the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict and prospects for a lasting solution? And what role is there for the Trump Administration and key Arab states moving forward?  Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research Center’s Khalil Shikaki and the Middle East Institute’s Natan Sachs to discuss these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects. 

Nearly two years into the Israel-Hamas war, the two-state solution is back in the news with the United Nations General Assembly voting in support. Unlike in years past, October 7 and the drawn-out conflict in Gaza has led to a wider and much more polarized conversation.  European nations, Arab states, and much of the international community are advocating for Palestinian statehood, while the Trump administration and Israel continue to push back.  Was the two-state solution ever a serious possibility? What roles did the United States, Palestinian Liberation Organization, Israel, and key Arab states play? And if not two states, what solution if any, is possible?  Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Robert Malley, former Middle East adviser in three presidential administrations and co-author of the new book Tomorrow Is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine, to discuss these and other issues.

In a world defined by seemingly intractable conflicts, great power competition, and rising challenges posed by climate change, nuclear proliferation, and economic uncertainty, the United States often seems like a modern-day Gulliver tied up and constrained by powers large and small and at times by its own politics and illusions.   How does the United States advance its national interests in the face of these challenges, particularly against the backdrop of bitter divisions and polarization at home?   Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with William J. Burns, former director of the CIA and former president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as he looks back on decades of national security challenges and ahead to what defines effective U.S. leadership in such a complex and fast-paced world. 

Presidential summits can be useful in opening serious negotiations or closing them with an agreement. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming summit in Alaska is the latest attempt by the United States to advance peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine—now three and a half years into the war. The outcome of the summit may foreshadow the direction of future negotiations and, ultimately, whether a durable solution is possible.  What is the Trump administration’sstrategy for the summit? What can realistically be achieved in this dialogue between Trump and Putin, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy excluded? And how will Russia, Ukraine, and the United States proceed in its wake?  Join Aaron David Miller in conversation with Andrew S. Weiss and Eric Ciaramella, two of Carnegie’s foremost Russia and Ukraine analysts, to unpack the summit’s outcomes, what comes next for the war, and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.  

The United States took unprecedented action, striking three nuclear sites on June 22, following an ongoing campaign of Israeli attacks on Iranian leadership, nuclear, and energy targets. Iran responded to Israel with a barrage of ballistic missile strikes, but following the latest U.S. bombing, Tehran attacked with a reportedly well-telegraphed symbolic strike on American assets in Qatar.  For now, it seems the dangerous escalatory cycle has been diffused, but how long will this uneasy status quo endure without a negotiated set of arrangements that satisfies all three parties in this explosive triangle?  Are Israeli and U.S. interests aligned? What kind of concessions is Iran prepared to make on their nuclear program? Is a diplomatic solution possible and, if not, what kind of conflict lies ahead? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Amos Yadlin, president and founder of MIND and former head of IDF Intelligence, and the Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour to discuss these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.  

A tenuous U.S. brokered cease-fire seems to be holding. But the challenge of converting it into a more enduring cessation of hostilities, let alone a political agreement to address the Iranian nuclear program, remain formidable.Is Iran interested in a deal on the nuclear issue in the aftermath of Israeli and U.S. strikes? What are the United States’ objectives in the period ahead and do they align with Israel’s? And what should the American response be if Iran tries to reconstitute its nuclear assets?Join Aaron David Miller as he engages with General David Petraeus and the Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour in conversation on the complexities of this explosive triangle on the next Carnegie Connects.

Israel’s surprise attacks last week against Iranian leadership targets, nuclear and military facilities, and Iran’s retaliation with ballistic missiles, have pushed the Israeli-Iranian conflict into unknown territory. Unlike the confrontations of April and October of 2024, this new phase is deadlier and shows no signs of abating. What are Israel’s and Iran’s objectives? Can Israel destroy Iran’s nuclear program? What are the prospects for U.S. military intervention? And if there is a diplomatic off ramp, how would it defuse the current crisis and produce longer term stability?  Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Sima Shine, of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, and Ali Vaez, of the International Crisis Group, in conversation on the current Israeli-Iranian conflict on the next Carnegie Connects.

Corruption, illicit foreign bribery schemes, and family members trading on presidential reputations for self-enrichment have surrounded the American political system for years. But the Trump presidency has embarked on an unprecedented scale of self-dealing out in the open, muddying the line between the national interest and those of the Trump family’s business enterprises. At the same time, the administration has hollowed out internal watchdogs, curbed ethics requirements, and undermined America’s credibility in the war against illicit finance. As Peter Baker noted in the New York Times, the "death or dearth of outrage," over this tsunami of self-dealing may well reflect how the Trump Administration has reshaped the standards of what's acceptable in Washington. Where are the current constraints against presidential self-dealing? Why have the public and political elites not generated the kind of reaction that might have been seen in years past?  Are there historic parallels and ways to course correct? What impact do these actions have on U.S. standing globally? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Norm Eisen, founder of Democracy Defenders Action, on the next Carnegie Connects.  

While the Trump administration was eager to jettison the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal in its first term, it now seems serious about negotiating another agreement in its second. And Iran, though wary of that seriousness and fearful of U.S. military action, appears willing to give negotiations a chance.   What are the prospects for success and the appetite for meaningful engagement with Iran? How would an agreement differ from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal? And if diplomacy fails, is American and Israeli military action against Iranian nuclear sites inevitable?  Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Suzanne Maloney, the vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, and Vali Nasr, the Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, on these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects. 

Three months into his presidency, Donald Trump has embarked on an unprecedented effort to aggrandize executive power and extend his reach over the judiciary, Congress, the media, and even American culture and society. Perhaps the most alarming aspect has been his battle with the judiciary. The president has called for the impeachment of a federal judge; his executive orders have challenged, if not violated, constitutional norms; and his Justice Department has slow-walked, if not ignored, the rulings of the federal judiciary, including the Supreme Court. “Never in history has the country faced such a massive flood the zone strategy,” writes the Carnegie Endowment’s President Mariano Florentino (Tino) Cuéllar in Foreign Affairs.  Can the republic’s guardrails hold? Other than the courts, what are the constraints on the abuse of presidential power? What role do the markets, the states, the media, and public opinion play? And what are the consequences for America if these guardrails don’t hold?Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Carnegie Endowment’s Tino Cuéllar and Harvard’s Learned Hand Professor of Law Jack Goldsmith to shed light on how these issues may play out and what their implications are for America’s changing place in the world on the next Carnegie Connects. 

China is top of mind for all these days, including U.S. officials. Whether it's because of military exercises against Taiwan, a trade war with the United States, or China's efforts to block a deal on Tik Tok, getting tough on Beijing seems to be the order of the day. But are we getting China right? Are agreements between the United States and China on core interests possible? Or is the current status quo the best we can do with Beijing to manage the relationship to avoid serious conflict?  Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with the Economist’s David Rennie to discuss these and other issues. 

In recent days, the Netanyahu government has doubled down on its efforts to consolidate its control and ramp up its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Following the firing of the former director of Shin Bet, an unprecedented decision in Israel’s history, the government has begun the more complicated process of terminating the attorney general, as well as changing the process by which judges are appointed.  A ferocious military operation in Gaza that has taken a terrible toll on Palestinian civilians and recent anti-Hamas demonstrations have resulted in renewed negotiations on a new hostage release for ceasefire agreement. And for the first time since the Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement in November 2024, rockets launched against northern Israel triggered response strikes in the Beirut suburbs.  What does the future hold for Gaza and any longer-term agreement? Will the Netanyahu government succeed in what appears to be a renewal of the 2023 effort to increase its power and undermine Israel’s judiciary? What about any hopes for a regional peace accord encompassing Palestinians and Saudi Arabia? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages former Shin Bet director Ami Ayalon on these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.

Does public opinion matter in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Do leaders pay attention to the changing views of their respective constituencies? Each situation presents unique challenges for analysts and scholars trying to answer these questions. And those challenges have grown exponentially more complicated in the wake of October 7, 2023, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.  How have Israeli and Palestinian attitudes evolved toward their leaders and the region, one another, the United States’ role, and the war?  And how do Israelis and Palestinians on all sides of the divide imagine their  future, particularly whether there’s a pathway out of the ongoing crisis and any prospects for ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?   Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Dahlia Scheindlin, a political strategist and a public opinion researcher, and Khalil Shikaki, the director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, two analysts and pollsters of Israeli and Palestinian politics and public opinion, on these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.