The Defence Horizon Journal - Podcasts

U.S. security cooperation analysis relies heavily on deductive frameworks such as PMESII-PT and DOTMLPF-P to impose structure and comparability across complex operational environments. While these models offer analytic discipline, they often embed linear assumptions that distort political and social realities in fragile or contested settings. However, effectiveness in security cooperation depends less on deductive coherence than on inductive adaptability. Deductive tools remain valuable, but only when subordinated to inductive insight. Rebalancing operational analysis toward induction improves adaptability, reduces analytic bias, and supports more durable security outcomes. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

This article examines how Rudra Brigades operationalise India’s evolving Dynamic Response Strategy by integrating speed, precision, and jointness at the brigade level. It situates these formations within India’s broader theatreisation and force-restructuring agenda, as validated through recent exercises and operations. The analysis highlights how this shift compresses warning times, expands conventional response options, and alters crisis dynamics in South Asia. For Pakistan, the emergence of such high-readiness formations underscores the need to adapt deterrence, force posture, and crisis-management mechanisms to a changing regional security environment. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

Marking its 20th anniversary in 2025, the European Security and Defence College reflects on its evolution from eight courses in 2005 to over 150 annually. This paper outlines a strategic vision for the ESDC’s future, structured around four pillars: alignment with Member States’ priorities, innovation in training, strengthening global partnerships, and deepening cooperation with Ukraine. Amid growing geopolitical challenges, the ESDC aims to enhance adaptability, quality assurance, and standardisation across its vast network. Central to this vision is the belief that the ESDC’s enduring success rests on the strength and expertise of its collaborative network. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

Disinformation, amplified by algorithms and AI, undermines trust in institutions and fuels social polarisation. While major disinformation campaigns exist, their real impact on opinion formation and democratic processes remains empirically uncertain. The greater danger lies in the exaggerated perception of disinformation’s power, which, in turn, erodes public trust. Comparative studies reveal that low media and digital literacy correlate strongly with societal vulnerability to false information. Effective responses thus require realism rather than panic: promoting critical thinking, media and AI literacy, and transparent digital governance. Ultimately, combating disinformation means strengthening trust, not amplifying fear. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

In an era marked by enhanced democratic backsliding worldwide, access to independent, reliable information becomes even more vital for democracy and must be protected – and promoted. However, the pluralistic and independent nature of the information environment is increasingly constrained by economic pressures on independent media outlets and by the growing prevalence of disinformation. Against this backdrop, this article explores how media support can be ensured as a strategic element in safeguarding information integrity and democratic resilience during times of crisis. Outlining the work of the Team Europe Democracy (TED) Initiative on information integrity shows that breaking down silos, enforcing multistakeholder engagement, and mainstreaming information integrity across sectors are essential steps forward. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

AI systems have transformed cyber defence by enabling self-protecting, self-healing, and predictive defence systems, but they also transform cyberattacks by opening new attack vectors and supporting advanced cyber offensive capabilities. This article examines how AI is leveraged in cyberattacks and operations, with selected examples of the “big four” states adversarial to the Western alliances—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The use of ever-improving AI-augmented cyberattack capabilities increases the risks of escalation and destabilisation in international peace and security. The UN has addressed several gaps in multilateral governance, while like-minded minilateral coalitions are instrumental for norm-setting and operational guardrails. However, these laudable efforts will have a limited impact as long as the main AI cyber powers are either unwilling or unlikely to allow their AI capabilities to be meaningfully constrained. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

AI systems have transformed cyber defence by enabling self-protecting, self-healing, and predictive defence systems, but they also transform cyberattacks by opening new attack vectors and supporting advanced cyber offensive capabilities. This article examines how AI is leveraged in cyberattacks and operations, with selected examples of the “big four” states adversarial to the Western alliances—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The use of ever-improving AI-augmented cyberattack capabilities increases the risks of escalation and destabilisation in international peace and security. The UN has addressed several gaps in multilateral governance, while like-minded minilateral coalitions are instrumental for norm-setting and operational guardrails. However, these laudable efforts will have a limited impact as long as the main AI cyber powers are either unwilling or unlikely to allow their AI capabilities to be meaningfully constrained. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

The article contends that security is now defined as much by protecting cognition as by defending machines or borders, with hybrid threats targeting both technological systems and human perception through advanced AI, deepfakes, and automated manipulation tools. As AI becomes integral to defence, the article emphasises the necessity of rigorous, ethical governance guided by frameworks such as NIST and UNESCO to ensure transparency, accountability, and fairness. It highlights the rise of cognitive encryption and self-learning AI as key to proactively defending against narrative manipulation, bias, and emerging hybrid threats, arguing that responsible innovation, which is grounded in ethical principles and continuous oversight, is vital for maintaining both national sovereignty and the integrity of human judgment in a world where defence must bridge the gap between technology and the human mind. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

The article contends that security is now defined as much by protecting cognition as by defending machines or borders, with hybrid threats targeting both technological systems and human perception through advanced AI, deepfakes, and automated manipulation tools. As AI becomes integral to defence, the article emphasises the necessity of rigorous, ethical governance guided by frameworks such as NIST and UNESCO to ensure transparency, accountability, and fairness. It highlights the rise of cognitive encryption and self-learning AI as key to proactively defending against narrative manipulation, bias, and emerging hybrid threats, arguing that responsible innovation, which is grounded in ethical principles and continuous oversight, is vital for maintaining both national sovereignty and the integrity of human judgment in a world where defence must bridge the gap between technology and the human mind. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

Critical communication faces new challenges in terms of cybersecurity in the future. Lessons from Ukraine need to be understood and incorporated to better prepare modern societies. The rapid advancement of technology provides new solutions but also introduces more challenges. Being able to upgrade or adapt old systems to new technology rather than replace them entirely is more important than ever. Concepts such as physical and digital resilience, as well as dual-use systems and artificial intelligence, play a key role in developing solutions to future challenges. Cooperation between different actors and sectors of society is pivotal. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

Given the relevance, evolution, and proliferation of cognitive warfare in the modern age, it is necessary to delve deeper into the concept to gain an empirical understanding that can inform future policies and practices. Accordingly, a systematic literature review was carried out to define the concept in relation to six key aspects, namely its demarcation from adjacent fields, the actors involved, the targets of cognitive attacks, as well as the significance of cyberspace, the lawfulness, and the role of intent. Additionally, these aspects were analysed through the lenses of the two main schools of thought currently dominating cognitive warfare–namely a minimalist and maximalist approach. Even though both perspectives add valuable aspects to the conceptualisation of cognitive warfare, the maximalist interpretation is preferable due to its ability to reflect more accurately the current scope and understanding of what cognitive warfare entails. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

This essay examines Germany's lack of strategic culture and its implications for deterrence and security policy. Written in the aftermath of the MSC 2025 and the context of growing geopolitical instability, it highlights how Europe’s reliance on the United States, combined with a weak defence mindset, undermines the ability to deter adversaries. The analysis compares Germany’s approach to security with that of France, the UK and smaller European states, demonstrating how strategic autonomy, societal resilience and military readiness contribute to credible deterrence. Additionally, it emphasises the need for a more proactive and engaged public discourse on security matters. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

Artificial intelligence is reshaping the offence–defence balance in cyberspace. Drawing on recent cases (PromptLock ransomware, Auto-Exploit pipelines, and the Air Force’s DASH wargame) and a systematic review of academic articles, this study examines how AI alters tempo, cost, and thresholds in cyberspace operations. Findings show that AI accelerates offensive exploitation, enables polymorphism, and lowers expertise requirements, while defence depends on machine-speed decision support constrained by institutional readiness. The short-term tilt favours offence, yet policy-aware autonomy and resilient governance can restore partial parity. AI functions as a structural force influencing the trajectory of state competition in cyberspace. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

Die westliche Sicherheit wird durch eine strukturelle Kluft zwischen Marktanreizen und Verteidigungsbedürfnissen untergraben: Märkte belohnen Effizienz und kurzfristige Margen, während Rüstung und Sicherheit hingegen Redundanz, Resilienz und Skalierung erfordern. Nur großvolumige Fertigung ermöglicht Lernkurven, technologische Führungsfähigkeit und strategische Souveränität, die aber nur mit geringen Profitmargen einhergehen. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

The cyber threat landscape has grown in scale, sophistication and complexity due to advancements in AI. This evolution can be observed across multiple threat vectors, including cyber-enabled fraud, supply chain attacks, malicious insiders, and disinformation. To fully assess their impact, it is essential to consider their synergistic effects. Meanwhile, the opportunities in cybersecurity are both formidable and exciting, provided the associated risks are properly addressed. Apart from the automation, evolution, and scaling of cyber defence, it is relevant to consider the substantial potential for reducing the attack surface and disrupting adversarial behaviour. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

With a renewed focus on nuclear stockpiling among certain state actors, there is an urgent need to identify successful pathways for nuclear disarmament. History has demonstrated that this is an achievable goal, with important lessons for contemporary security discourse and policy. The potential lessons extend beyond purely security dividends, with potential contributions to economic and environmental discourses as well. The case presented in this contribution - titled at different times the HEU Deal, the Grand Uranium Bargain, or Megatons to Megawatts M2M - was the product of sustained cooperation between enemies (USA - USSR/Russia) and multiple stakeholders. It was an early, still little-known, yet useful component of just transitions to climate-compatible societies. The positive results of this actual cooperative disarmament case significantly contribute to the moral argument for nuclear disarmament with a practical, almost utilitarian rationale. The larger framework of transitions to climate-compatible societies creates a broader motivational framework that must be employed to properly evaluate the results of actual nuclear disarmament cases and the need for sustained cooperation. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

The global energy transition faces a fundamental challenge: how to accelerate renewable energy deployment while maintaining systemic stability and social equity. This research examines the principle of "as fast as possible, as slow as necessary" through a qualitative analysis of governance approaches, social acceptance mechanisms, and case studies from Latin America and Denmark. Using literature review and comparative case study methodology, we analyse how different governance models influence transition pacing and outcomes. Our findings reveal that hybrid governance models, combining centralised policy frameworks with decentralised community participation, offer the most viable pathway for balancing rapid decarbonization with systemic stability. The study demonstrates that social acceptance is a critical determinant of feasible transition pace, with energy communities serving as effective mechanisms for redistributing power and enhancing participation. Denmark's experience illustrates the successful integration of high renewable energy shares through consistent policy frameworks and community engagement. At the same time, Latin American cases highlight the importance of addressing distributional justice and cultural considerations. The research concludes that optimal energy transition pacing requires differentiated approaches across sectors, sequenced implementation strategies, and continuous adaptation to local contexts. These insights provide a framework for policymakers seeking to navigate the complex trade-offs between speed and stability in energy transitions. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

India’s climate action trajectory holds immense implications for both national resilience and global climate stability. As the world’s most populous country, with a rapidly expanding economy and a young, skilled workforce, India finds itself at a strategic crossroads. This essay evaluates India’s current mitigation efforts, adaptation vulnerabilities, and the global implications of its energy and climate choices. With significant socio-economic disparities, geographical exposures, and political constraints, India presents both a risk and an opportunity for the global climate regime. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

Artificial Intelligence is transforming the functioning and interaction of weapon systems and changing how battles are fought. That said, there are still many unresolved questions regarding the safety and security of AI systems. The core concern is that military organisations must adopt a multifaceted approach to effectively manage AI-associated risks, combining technical measures with organisational adaptability. This can only be achieved by considering institutional mechanisms as well as software and hardware in the context of AI development. By addressing these challenges, military organisations can navigate the evolving landscape of AI more securely while enhancing their operational efficiency and effectiveness. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

Artificial Intelligence is transforming warfare on land, in the air, and above all—for this paper—at sea. AI is not only enhancing non-kinetic dimensions, such as information dominance, cyber operations, and decision-making processes, but is also amplifying the effectiveness of kinetic means. Recent conflicts have demonstrated how AI-enabled systems are used to deter, degrade, and destroy enemy assets, reshaping both the physical and virtual battlefields. This change necessitates a new perspective on military operations, where AI and digital technology are seamlessly integrated from planning to logistics. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal