Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

This week Mark Leonard speaks to Raja Mohan, academic and foreign policy analyst, in a podcast episode recorded live from New Delhi during the Raisina Dialogue conference. Together they explore how India views the current global moment: from the resilience of US autonomy to the diffusion of influence across emerging powers.Why has India’s relationship with the EU become more strategically important? How is New Delhi balancing ties with Beijing, Moscow and Washington while deepening economic integration with Western partners? And what role could India and Europe play together in shaping security, technology and connectivity across a wider “Indo-Mediterranean” region?This podcast was recorded on March 4 2026 in New Delhi during the Raisina Dialogue. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this emergency episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director, and Cinzia Bianco, ECFR visiting fellow, to discuss the dramatic escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure.What are Trump’s war aims and does he really seek regime change? Could Iran’s political system survive this shock, or is deeper transformation underway? How are Gulf states reacting as they find themselves on the front line? And with Europe largely sidelined so far, what role could or should Europeans play in preventing further escalation?This emergency episode was recorded on Sunday afternoon, 2pm UK time, as events continue to unfold.Trump’s strikes on Iran are an illegal war of choice—and Europeans should say so by Ellie Geranmayeh Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year, negotiations are finally entering a productive phase. Mark Leonard is joined by Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, and author of the new report, “An Armed Nonalignment Model for Ukraine’s Postwar Security”, to examine Ukraine’s security status and US foreign policy towards it. Mark and Jennifer explore her proposal that Ukraine should position itself as an “armed nonalignment” state, the future of the transatlantic alliance, and America’s National Defense Strategy.   Can Ukraine be nonaligned but also “armed to the teeth”? Could it become a porcupine that Russia cannot swallow? What should Europe and Ukraine do if future US foreign policy focuses more on the Indo-Pacific and the western hemisphere? Could Russia feasibly invade Ukraine again? And what happens if it does?  Bookshelf An Armed Nonalignment Model for Ukraine’s Postwar Security by Jennifer Kavanagh  The bear in the Baltics: Reassessing the Russian threat in Estonia by Jennifer and Jeremy Shapiro Season 4 of Bridgerton on Netflix  Susie Wiles, JD Vance, and the “Junkyard Dogs”: The White House Chief of Staff on Trump’s Second Term (Part 1 of 2) by Vanity Fair  Susie Wiles Talks Epstein Files, Pete Hegseth’s War Tactics, Retribution, and More (Part 2 of 2) by Vanity Fair  This podcast was recorded on 30th January 2026  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week Mark Leonard is joined by Mark Malloch-Brown. Mark is the former president of the Open Society Foundations, former head of the United Nations Development Programme, formerly UN secretary general Kofi Annan’s chief of staff, and former UN deputy secretary general. From 2007-2009 he joined the British government of prime minister Gordon Brown as minister responsible for Africa and Asia.  Together, Mark and Mark discuss how the role and impact of the Bretton Woods institutions, such as the World Bank and IMF, have changed. How can these institutions adapt to the rough-and-tumble world of 21st-century geopolitics—especially considering China’s increased support for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and projections that Asia will hold 50% of global GDP by 205? Is Mark Carney right that there is a rupture in the old order? How did the Bretton Woods institutions underpin the old order? Are the World Bank and IMF problematic and outdated? Is it possible to reinvent these institutions for a new era? Or is it better to work through new, more representative institutions? Bookshelf 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in History – and How It Shattered a Nation by Andrew Ross Sokin  Facing Up to the Future: Navigating Disruption, Building Trust by Patrick Achi, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Mark Malloch-Brown News and reflections from Mark Malloch-Brown by Mark Malloch-Brown This episode was recorded on February 6th 2026  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this special episode of the World in 30 Minutes, Mark Leonard welcomes Editorial Director and Senior Policy Fellow Jeremy Cliffe, Senior Policy Fellow, Ulrike Franke, Distinguished Policy Fellow, Janka Oertel and Senior Policy Fellow, Majda Ruge live from the Munich Security Conference to unpack its biggest moments.Recording from the Bayerischer Hof Hotel in Munich, they reflect on Marco Rubio’s message to Europe, European leaders’ calls for greater autonomy, Zelensky’s intervention on Ukraine, and the shifting tone on China, NATO and tech regulation. Is the transatlantic relationship entering a new phase? Did Europe show unity or fragmentation? And what does the mood in Munich reveal about the future of security in 2026?This podcast was recorded live at the Munich Security Conference 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This episode features a live recording of a conversation between ECFR director Mark Leonard and US undersecretary of war for policy, Elbridge Colby, which took place during the Munich Security Conference 2026. Together, they discuss how ideas developed in think-tanks translate into government policy, and how the “America First” approach is shaping US national security priorities. Mark and Elbridge examine NATO’s evolution toward greater European responsibility, the challenge of turning higher defence spending into effective military capability, and the continued importance of nuclear deterrence.They also discuss support for Ukraine, rising concerns about China’s military posture, efforts to counter Iran, and the strategic role of the US–Israel relationship, before looking ahead to the trade-offs and priorities likely to define American strategy in the coming years.This podcast was recorded on February 13th 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Tiago Antunes, Portugal’s former secretary of state for European affairs and senior visiting fellow at ECFR, and Jim O’Brien, former US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, to reflect on the recent transatlantic crisis over Greenland. After meetings in Copenhagen with Danish and Greenlandic leaders, and Tiago’s visit to Nuuk, Mark discusses with him and Jim how tensions escalated, why they were diffused at Davos, and what lessons Europe can draw from the episode. What mood are the Danes in? How do they assess Trump’s motivations? Has the crisis brought Greenlanders closer to Denmark? And how did Denmark go about building European unity to oppose Donald Trump’s moves? Bookshelf Indignity: Life Reimagined by Lea Ypi Everybody Loves Our Dollars by Oliver Bullough  This episode was recorded on February 11th 2026  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Leonard is joined by Lea Ypi, ECFR council member and professor in political theory at the London School of Economics, to discuss her latest book Indignity: A Life Reimagined, which asks how individuals can maintain their dignity in a totalitarian system. Mark and Lea delve into defining moments in global politics, from the 1920s to the post-cold war era. By reflecting on the past, they discuss how polarised modern politics can find a new path.   How can the left counter the narratives of the new right? What does a revitalised left look like in Europe and beyond?  Are the tragedies of 1920s and 1940s Albania, as experienced by Leman—grandmother of Lea Ypi and the book's protagonist— repeating themselves in Europe today? Do any parallels exist between then and now? And what lessons does this period hold for today?   Bookshelf Indignity: A Life Reimagined by Lea Ypi The Overcoat by Nikolai Gogol  This podcast was recorded on January 8th 2026  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Leonard is joined by Africa experts Nathalie Delapalme, CEO of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation and ECFR council member, Carlos Lopes, honourary professor at the University of Cape Town who has occupied prominent positions in the UN and African Union and Alex Vines, director of ECFR’s Africa programme.Together, they explore how the European policies on critical raw minerals and energy should evolve in relation to Africa’s economic growth, the needs of younger generation and China’s presence in the region. They also outline which topics are key to understanding the EU-AU relationship.How can Europe support Africa’s climate and energy goals without recreating patterns of conditionality or dependency? What impact will the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism have on African economies? With multiple global powers seeking influence in Africa, how should Europe reposition itself as a partner of choice? And how does China’s cooperation with Africa impact Europe?Bookshelf     The Hour of the Predator: Encounters with the Autocrats and Tech Billionaires Taking Over the World by Giuliano Da EmpoliAfrican Europeans: An Untold History by Olivette OtéléFareed’s take: World countering Trump with shrewd moves Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In an emergency podcast episode, Mark Leonard welcomes James Crabtree, ECFR distinguished visiting fellow and former Mumbai bureau chief for the Financial Times, to discuss the long-awaited EU-India trade deal. The agreement, nearly 20 years in the making, was signed in New Delhi by Ursula von der Leyen, Antonio Costa and Narendra Modi, and has been dubbed the “mother of all deals”. It aims to integrate two massive markets—representing a quarter of the global population—slash tariffs, boost services trade and reduce dependencies on China and the US.  Mark and James explore India’s strategic pivot amid US tariffs, the potential for deeper defence and tech ties, and Europe’s quest for autonomy in a multipolar world. Is this a game-changer for global trade flows? Can Europe and India forge a true superpower partnership, or will domestic politics and external pressures derail progress? And is this the birth of a new geopolitical axis? This podcast was recorded on January 28, 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Mark Leonard sits down with Finnish president, Alexander Stubb, in Davos for a conversation about Donald Trump’s view of Ukraine, Greenland, the world and Europe’s place in it. They explore the clash between advocates of multipolarity and those resisting it, and how this battle is reshaping global power.  Together, they reflect on the shifting idea of the West and the challenge of preserving a pragmatic, values based transatlantic relationship. They also explore Finland’s place in this rapidly evolving landscape including the impact of Trump’s sights on Greenland and the war in Ukraine. Bookshelf Peacemaker: U Thant and the Forgotten Quest for a Just World by Thant Myint-U The Triangle of Power: Rebalancing the New World Order by Alex Stubb * please note there were technical issues during the recording Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Protests across Iran have entered their third week and Donald Trump is said to be considering a military intervention against the Khamenei regime. According to human rights organisations, its brutal crackdown against demonstrators has led to at least 2,500 deaths, as well as an internet blackout and mass arrests. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, to discuss the Iranian protests, what a military intervention by Trump could look like and how Iranians are reacting to the political turmoil.Could Trump feasibly intervene in Iran? What are his options? How do the current protests differ from those staged after the death of Jina Mahsa Amini? What role could Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, play in a potential regime change? And how does Iran’s nuclear programme fit into all of this?This podcast was recorded on Thursday 15, January 2026.Bookshelf It Was Just an Accident by Jafar PanahiTaraneh: A Documentary by BBC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Following on from January 2nd’s prediction episode, Mark Leonard hosts Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR’s Middle East programme director, Alex Vines, ECFR’s Africa programme director, Andrew Small, ECFR’s Asia programme director, and Jana Kobzová, co-director of ECFR’s European Security programme, to discuss what challenges Europe should focus on in 2026. How will global politics shift in 2026? Will we finally see an end to the war in Ukraine? How are the ongoing protests in Iran affecting the likelihood of an Israeli attack? What’s next for the Gaza peace deal? What are the major points of conflict that will shape Africa this year? And will Europeans finally confront China’s growing influence? BookshelfThe War Came to Us: Life and Death in Ukraine by Christopher MillerIndignity: A Life Reimagined by Lea YpiTransformed by the People: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Road to Power in Syria by Patrick Haenni and Jerome DrevonSahel: The Perfect Storm by Morten BøåsChina’s Economy: Rightsizing 2025, Looking Ahead to 2026 by Daniel H. Rosen, Logan Wright, Oliver Melton and Jeremy Smith (Rhodium Group) This podcast was recorded on January 8th 2026 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On January 3rd, the US military struck Venezuela and captured its president, Nicolás Maduro. Trump has declared that America will now “run” the country, shifting from a narrative which had focused on the US fighting a war against drug traffickers to a narrative which sees the US assert control over Venezuela’s massive oil reserves. Mark Leonard is joined by Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR research director, and Nacho Torreblanca, ECFR distinguished policy fellow, to discuss why America decided to capture Maduro and what this could mean for the domestic situation in Venezuela—as well as its wider implications for other areas, including Greenland. What were Trump’s motivations? Will the US increasingly use military force to secure resources and territory across the Americas and the north Atlantic? And could Greenland be next?  Bookshelf Morir en la arena (To Die in the Sand) by Leonardo PaduraThe Revolutionary Temper: Paris, 1748-1789 by Robert Darnton This podcast was recorded on January 5th 2026 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week Mark Leonard is joined by Jeremy Shapiro, research director at ECFR, for their annual end-of-year tradition: marking last year’s predictions and making ten bold forecasts for the year ahead. They look at how their 2025 calls stacked up—from Trump to German politics to Ukraine, China and migration—before turning their attention to 2026. Will the European far right continue its advance? Is an uneasy ceasefire in Ukraine finally within reach? How might US policy on Iran, China and Europe evolve under Trump? And what role will AI, energy security and debt crises play in shaping the year to come? This podcast was recorded on December 30th 2025. BookshelfThe Dream Factory: London’s First Playhouse and the Making of William Shakespeare by Daniel Swift Ones and Tooze by Adam Tooze Wer verteidigt Europa?: Die neuen Kriegsgefahren und was wir tun müssen, um uns zu schützen by Jana PuglierinSurviving Chaos: Geopolitics when the rules fail by Mark Leonard (April 2026)   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

China’s tightening of export controls on rare earths and related technologies across 2025 marked a turning point in Europe’s economic security. Even with Beijing’s partial and momentary rollback after talks with Washington, a Damocles sword still hangs over Europe’s industrial base—from defence to semiconductors and clean tech.  And with China’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan and Made in China 2035, Europe faces the triple threat of coercion, industrial corrosion and loss of sensitive business intelligence.  This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke, senior policy fellow at ECFR covering economic security and European economic strategy, and Andrew Small, the new director of the ECFR’s Asia programme. Together,  they discuss China’s current and future economic strategies—and actions that Europe should take in response.   How seriously should Europeans take the threat of Chinese coercion? In which industries can Europe realistically compete with Beijing? And where are Europe’s potential partners in Asia, Africa and Latin America for alternative supply chains?  This episode was recorded on December 15 2025  Bookshelf Material World: The Six Raw Materials That Shape Modern Civilization by Ed Conway The Reckoning by David Halberstam “Isch vorbei” by Süddeutsche Zeitung  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow and deputy head of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, and Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow with ECFR’s MENA programme and chairman of the Brussels-based European Middle East Project (EuMEP).  Together, they discuss Ellie’s and Hugh’s experiences at the Doha Forum: from Gaza’s fragile future and Iran’s nuclear conundrum, to America’s role as a security guarantor in the Middle East—especially for Iran’s nuclear deal.   Will America still be considered as the security guarantor in the Arab world, or is Trump still interested in the Iran nuclear compromise?  Will the outcome of a future Israeli election fundamentally change the country's foreign policy? And who holds the real power in Gaza’s future governance—the international community, or Palestinians themselves?   This episode was recorded on December 10th 2025  Bookshelf:The Caravan: Abdallah Azzam and the Rise of Global Jihad by Thomas Hegghammer  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

America has published its new National Security Strategy (NSS)—and it contains worrying rhetoric about the EU, European values and the transatlantic relationship. Russia, however, is never described as a threat or competitor. In fact, Moscow has welcomed the document as being “largely consistent with Russia’s vision”.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Gladden Pappin, president of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, co-founder and deputy editor of American Affairs journal, and co-founder of the online magazine Postliberal Order, and Majda Ruge, senior policy fellow in ECFR’s US programme and long-time observer of the American right’s foreign policy. Together, they break down what’s behind the NSS and what its real impact on Europe might be.What are the NSS’s ideological roots? How seriously should Europeans take the strategy and possible threats coming from the US? And what does the NSS mean for the future of the transatlantic relationship? Bookshelf:Reading Trump’s National Security Strategy: Europe through a distorted lens by Carl BildtIt’s time Europe got to grips with the MAGA challenge, writes Mark Leonard by Mark LeonardEuropeans can’t let Trump define what it means to be European by Pawel ZerkaThis episode was recorded on December 11th 2025 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

China’s rise has long fascinated policymakers, economists and technologists. But few observers have studied the country’s technological ambitions as closely as Dan Wang, research fellow at the Hoover History Lab at Stanford University and author of Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future.This week, Mark welcomes Dan to discuss the ideas behind his book, including the dichotomy between China’s “engineering state" and the West’s “lawyerly” societies. Together, they unpack what China is getting right—and where its model is lagging.What is the Chinese government getting wrong? Is the Chinese model now coming under strain? What would it take for Europe to remain competitive in the 21st century? And how is China projecting its model across Africa and South-East Asia?Bookshelf: Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future by Dan Wang Allies at War: How the Struggles Between the Allied Powers Shaped the War and the World by Tim Bouverie This episode was recorded on November 21st 2025  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The European Council on Foreign Relations turned 18 in November 2025. This milestone offers a unique moment to reflect on the world in which ECFR was founded—and how dramatically it has changed. In 2007, Europe had the world’s confidence: democracy seemed secure, globalisation was a force for opportunity, EU enlargement was reshaping the continent, and peace felt almost guaranteed. So how did Europe move from the hopeful 2000s to a world of power blocs and war?This week, Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR co-chairs Carl Bildt, former prime and foreign minister of Sweden, Lykke Friis, former Danish minister of climate, energy and gender equality, and Norbert Röttgen, member of the German parliament, to take stock, 18 years after ECFR began. They assess what Europe misunderstood then; what it must confront now; and what the next two decades might look like.Why did Europe need a pan-European foreign policy think-tank like ECFR in 2007? Why does it still need one today? And how has ECFR has helped shape debates and policies over the past 18 years?Bookshelf:Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black SeaWhy Crimea matters European Security This podcast was recorded on November 24th 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.