The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey

The question is not if but when US President Donald Trump will unilaterally declare victory in the Iran war. The problem is that it takes three to tango. Both Israel and Iran would have to agree, and both have little interest in ending the war any time soon.

Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader after the killing of his father, Ali Khamenei, in a US-Israeli strike — a move that could reshape the country’s political future and its relations with Washington. The appointment comes despite strong opposition from Donald Trump, who had previously said the younger Khamenei would be “unacceptable” as Iran’s next leader and suggested the United States should have a say in the succession. So, who exactly is Mojtaba Khamenei? And with Washington openly opposed to his leadership, could his appointment push tensions between Iran and the US to an even more dangerous level? On The Big Story, Hongbin Jeong speaks with Dr James M. Dorsey, Adjunct Senior Fellow at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, to find out more.

Iran may have played into Israel and the United States’ hands by firing drones and missiles at Azerbaijan and Turkey. Beyond risking sucking Turkey and Azerbaijan into the Iran war, the attacks could boost efforts to spark ethnic uprisings in Iran, even though US President Donald Trump, in an apparent 180-degree turn-around, this weekend threw cold water on initial Israeli and US plans to encourage ethnic insurgencies. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Mr. Trump said he had “ruled out” encouraging Kurdish groups from entering the fight with the Iranian government. “They’re willing to go in, but we really—I’ve told them I don’t want them to go in. The war is complicated enough without having, getting the Kurds involved,” Mr. Trump said. It was unclear if Mr. Trump’s about face would force Israel, to fall into line. Israel has maintained long-standing relations with Iranian Kurdish and other armed ethnic groups in the Islamic Republic. The Iranian attack came as US and Israeli warplanes targeted military, security, and intelligence bases in a swath of land that stretches from the Azerbaijan-Iran border to Kurdish-populated areas near Iraq. Twenty per cent of all bombings have focussed on Kurdish and Azeri areas of Iran. Mr. Trump’s turn-around appeared to be at odds with the pattern of Israeli and US bombings, which potentially create an environment conducive to ethnic insurgencies, starting with Kurdish and Azeri-populated areas. The bombing campaign “suggests the (Israeli and US) intent is to facilitate Iranian government loss of control in restive regions of Iran,” insisted Robert S. Ford, a former US ambassador to Algeria and Syria.

James discusses the Iran war, oil, Yemen on Radio Islam.

The Middle East tinderbox was struck ablaze on Saturday when the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran. How might this conflict shape the power dynamics in Tehran as well as the broader region? BFM 89.9 discusses the stakes at play with Middle East expert Dr. James M. Dorsey.

Iran is challenging the might-is-right cornerstone of Donald Trump’s foreign policy by refusing to bow to the US president’s demands and fighting a war that within hours expanded across the Middle East. In doing so, Iran is going where no other country, including Venezuela and NATO ally Denmark has been willing to go when threatened with military force if they did not accept Mr. Trump’s demands. Iran was betting that Mr. Trump would want a quick strike against Iran that would not entangle the United States in a protracted conflict and potentially force it to put boots on the ground. It was a miscalculation. Nevertheless, it was a risk Iran willingly shouldered. Joined by Israel in the attack on Iran, Mr. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu have suggested that regime change was the attack’s goal. Mr. Trump has acknowledged that achieving that goal could involve protracted hostilities in which US troops may be killed. Mr. Khamenei was killed on the first day of the US and Israeli strikes. So were other officials, including the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, who was appointed by Mr. Khamenei. Even so, it would be premature for the United States and Israel to declare victory. Mr. Khamenei’s death does not mean the collapse of the regime.

James discusses on Radio Islam the Iranian-US standoff, Iran’s ethnic challenges and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel.

James discusses on BFM 89.9 the prospects for a diplomatic path to prevent US-Iranian tensions from boiling over.

James discusses on Radio Islam the prospects of a US military attack on Iran, the fallout of the dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Africa, and Israeli support for the UAE in its Washington-focused war of words with the kingdom.

James discusses on CNA938 what this week’s Board of Peace meeting in Washington means for Gaza and US President Donald Trump’s ambition to control, if not replace the United Nations as the worlds’ foremost peacemaker.

It’s crunch time when Donald Trump’s Board of Peace meets in Washington this week to finalise the implementation of the second phase of the president’s Gaza ceasefire plan.

James discusses on Radio Islam this week’s anxiously awaited White House meeting between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, next week’s Board of Peace gathering in Washington focussed on Gaza, and the future of US-Israeli military relations.

On this edition of Parallax Views, returning guest James M. Dorsey, independent journalist and scholar at The Turbulent World Substack, breaks down the latest developments shaping the Middle East. We start with the high-stakes U.S.-Iran talks, where Dorsey explains the deep mistrust between Washington and Tehran, the obstacles to a deal, and why, despite tensions, he doubts Trump seeks a full-scale war. We explore what military action against Iran could mean for the Gulf States, Turkey, and the Caucasus, and the broader question of regional stability. Next, we analyse Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, D.C., his fraught relationship with Trump, and what’s at stake politically for Israel as elections approach. Dorsey explains what Netanyahu likely seeks from the former president on Iran and why mutual distrust may be defining their interactions. In the latter half, we dive into the rising rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, examining shifts in Saudi regional strategy, the UAE’s backing of militias and separatists, and the potential dangers this poses across North Africa, especially in Sudan. We also discuss the UAE’s growing closeness with Israel, Qatar’s positioning in the Saudi-UAE rivalry, and what these dynamics reveal about the future of Middle East geopolitics.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s meeting this week with US President Donald Trump could determine war and peace in Iran and Gaza and the immediate fate of the West Bank.

James discusses the US-Iranian talks, the Saudi-United Arab Emirates conflict, and the killing in Libya of Seif al-Islam on Radio Islam.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has some advice for US negotiators in advance of Friday’s US-Iranian talks in Oman aimed at avoiding a military conflagration that could spark a regional war in the Middle East. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Mr. Fidan suggested that the US tackle one contentious issue at a time rather than seek a package deal that addresses all US demands, starting with curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme. “My advice to our American friends is, close the files one by one. Start with nuclear. Close it. Then the other, then the other, then the other. If you put them as a package, it will be very difficult for our Iranian friends to digest and really process it,” Mr. Fidan said days after talks with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi. Turkey, together with Qatar, has played a key role in attempts to avert a military conflagration as US President Donald Trump, threatening to attack Iran if the talks fail, amasses an armada in the Middle East.

A US military intervention in Iran doesn’t just risk exposing Gulf states and Israel to Iranian retaliation. It also raises the spectre of a regional war spilling over into the Caucasus. With no US or Israeli targets within its borders, Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel and US military bases in the Middle East, a threat directed at Gulf states and Israel rather than NATO member Turkey. While Iran is unlikely to attack Turkey’s Incirlik Airbase that hosts the US military’s 39th Air Base Wing, an uptick of ethnic nationalism, particularly among Azeris, a Turkic group who account from anywhere between 16 and 24 per cent of the Iranian population, could draw Iran’s neighbours, Turkey and Azerbaijan, into a wider regional conflict on the principle of ‘you may not want war but war wants you.’ Militant supporters of Israel in the United States, like the influential, far-right, Philadelphia-based Middle East Forum appear willing to shoulder the risk. The Forum has advocated a US targeting of Azeri units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps or IRGC, which the Forum describes as the Guards’ most brutal. The IRGC is among the prime targets that the US military has presented to US President Donald Trump.

Disarmament of Hamas is the next battleground on which Israel and the group will each attempt to shape Gaza’s future in their mould. The prospects don’t bode well for ordinary Gazans with US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace’s cards stacked in Israel’s favour. That is not to deny that Hamas either needs to disarm or be integrated into a unified Palestinian police force that maintains law and order in the Strip. Without disarmament as well as an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the introduction of an international stabilisation force, relief and rehabilitation efforts will remain hampered, and reconstruction will not get off the ground. The problem is that the Board’s implementation of the second phase of Mr. Trump’s Gaza ceasefire plan is off to a problematic start.

James discusses Iran, Gaza, and the Saudi-United Arabs Emirates dispute in Radio Islam’s Middle East Report.

James discusses US President Donald Board’s Board of Peace, Iran, Greenland, and the world order with podcaster J. G. Michael @ViewsParallax.