IIEA Talks

In this IIEA panel, three experts discusses the conflict in Gaza and its broader implications for the regional stability of the Greater Middle East. As the conflict continues, regional actors in the Arab Gulf and the Levant, have stepped up their activities threatening a widening of the conflict beyond the present battlespace. Meanwhile, global powers have increased their own military activities in the region. Throughout the discussion, this panel explores what the conflict means not only for the Middle East, but also for global politics. Speakers in this panel include Rita Sakr, Assistant Professor at Maynooth University Raphael S. Cohen, Director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program at RAND’s Project AIR FORCE Marwan Muasher, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

In Minister Adlercreutz’s view, the long-term success of Europe is being decided now, and Europe must act now. Against the backdrop of a more challenging world, the European elections are fast approaching. As part of the Future-Proofing Europe project, Minister Adlercreutz’s address outlines how Finland seeks to meet these challenges as well as the country’s key priorities: strategic competitiveness, comprehensive security, and promoting a clean ecological transition. About the Speaker: Anders Adlercreutz has been the Minister for European Affairs and Ownership Steering of Finland since June 2023. Minister Adlercreutz represents Finland in the EU General Affairs Council and is responsible for the country's Ownership Steering Policy for state-owned companies. First elected to Parliament in 2015, he served as Chair of the Swedish Parliamentary Group from 2019 until 2023. Minister Adlercreutz is an architect by profession and is a partner in an architecture firm in Helsinki.

In his address to the IIEA, Professor Treisman discusses his recent book Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century. He discusses how a new type of authoritarian regime has emerged which is better adapted to ruling sophisticated, globally-connected societies. These authoritarian regimes rely less on violent repression and instead rely more heavily on the manipulation of information. Professor Treisman discusses how strongman leaders use spin and information manipulation to cement their rule – and also explains why they sometimes revert to harsher methods. About the Speaker: Daniel Treisman is a Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Los Angeles, Acting Director of the UCLA Center for European and Russian Studies, and Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He is a former editor of The American Political Science Review and he has been a consultant for the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and USAID. His latest book, co-authored with Sergei Guriev, is Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century. The book was listed as one of the “Best Books of 2022” (The New Yorker, Foreign Affairs), “Best Political Books of 2022” (Financial Times), and “Books That Made Us Think in 2022” (The Atlantic, Moment).

The fiscal theory of the price level states that inflation results from more government debt than people believe will be repaid. In his remarks to the IIEA, Dr Cochrane explains the idea, and uses it to understand the surge of inflation in 2021-2022, why that inflation went away without restrictive monetary policy and a recession, the strange quiet of the zero bound era, and the rise and fall during the 1970s and 1980s. Dr Cochrane also discusses his new book, The Fiscal Theory of Price Level. About the Speaker: John H. Cochrane is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. His publications include the book The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and Asset Pricing. He has written articles on monetary policy, inflation, asset markets, macroeconomics, health insurance, time-series econometrics, financial regulation, and other topics. He writes Op-eds in the Wall Street Journal, blogs as “the Grumpy Economist”, and is part of the Hoover Goodfellows podcast with H.R. McMaster and Niall Ferguson.

In this address to the IIEA, Lutz Güllner, Head of Division for Strategic Communications and Information Analysis at the European External Action Service, discusses the issue of disinformation and foreign information manipulation and their implications for the EU’s democratic resilience. Mr Güllner also focuses on the ways in which the EU is responding to foreign disinformation and provides his expert opinion on the further steps the EU could take in this domain. About the Speaker: Lutz Güllner is Head of Division for Strategic Communications and Information Analysis in the European External Action Service. As part of his work, he focuses on how to address disinformation threats and foreign manipulative interference targeting the EU and for the EU's neighbourhood region. Prior to his current position he served as Head of the EEAS's foreign and security policy communication team (2017-2019) and as Head of the European Commission's Directorate General for Trade's communication team (2013-17). He was also Deputy Head of the Trade Strategy Unit and responsible for the coordination of EU-US trade and economic relations.

'Is Ireland getting it right on Gaza?' Eoin O'Malley and Dr Michael O'Sullivan, in conversation with Dan O’Brien, IIEA Chief Economist

In her address to the IIEA, Nadia Calviño, who was appointed as President of the EIB on 1 January 2024, outlines her priorities for her term as EIB President. President Calviño discusses how the EIB and Ireland have been working together to invest in a sustainable future for all and outlines her vision for how Ireland and the EIB can develop closer cooperation in the coming decade. About the Speaker: Nadia Calviño is a Spanish economist and lawyer with a career spanning over 30 years in public policy, economics and finance. Ms Calviño served as First Vice-President of Spain and Minister of Economy, Trade and Enterprise until December 2023. Prior to that role, she held various positions, including Second Vice-President and Minister for Economy and Digitalization (March-July 2021), Third Vice-President and Minister for Economy and Digitalization (2020-2021) and Minister for Economy and Business (2018-2020). Additionally, she chaired the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from 2022 to 2023.

In this IIEA panel event, three expert speakers discuss the present state of the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) Agenda. The panel reflects upon how, as the global security environment continues to deteriorate, Security Council Resolution 1325 and its emphasis of on the specific challenges which conflict poses to women in conflict settings has grown only more important. Moreover, the panel explores the role of women in conflict resolution, their role in UN peacekeeping, and conflict prevention. Speakers in this panel include: Major-General (Ret.) Maureen O’Brien, Former Deputy Military Advisor in the United Nations Office of Military Affairs, Department of Peace Operations; Dr Sally-Anne Corcoran served with UN for nearly two decades. An Irish Research Council Scholar, she received her PhD in Law from the University of Galway in 2022. She is an international expert and advisor on Gender and Human Rights; Sophie McGuirk, Peace and Stability Unit at the Department of Foreign Affairs.

'Britain, Ireland and Europe: where we are and where we’re going' The United Kingdom’s relations with its neighbour have been in some flux since British voters voted to leave the European Union in 2016. The protracted upheaval of Brexit strained relations with both Ireland and the EU, and a new, fully stable equilibrium has yet to emerge. Sir Ivan Rogers - advisor to two British prime ministers, among numerous other roles - will discuss the current and future state of the UK’s relations with its neighbours and how relations might change after the upcoming British general election. He will also assess the security implications for Britain and Europe of Russia’s war with Ukraine. About the Speaker Sir Ivan Rogers has spent most of his career to date in the British civil servant and foreign corps. He has advised two British Prime Ministers (Tony Blair and David Cameron), one Chancellor of the Exchequer (Ken Clark), and served as Chief of Staff in Brussels to a European Commissioner (Leon Brittan). He has also held senior positions in the private sector. Since resigning as the UK’s Permanent Representative to the EU in 2017, he has been one of the leading public analysts of Brexit and related matters.

In her address to the IIEA, Dr Sabine Weyand presents how geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges are affecting international trade, and their implications for the EU’s trade policy. Furthermore, Dr Weyand assesses the role that trade plays in strengthening competitiveness of EU businesses and advancing the EU’s economic security interests, while supporting the EU’s green transition. This event is part of the Future Proofing Europe project, supported by the Department of Foreign Affairs. About the Speaker: Dr Sabine Weyand is Director-General for Trade at the European Commission. Prior to her current role, Dr Weyand was Deputy Chief Negotiator of the Commission Task Force for the Preparation and Conduct of the Negotiations with the United Kingdom under Article 50 of the TEU from October 2016 to May 2019. She was Director in the Secretariat-General of the Commission in charge of policy coordination on economic, social and environmental policies before joining DG Trade in 2016 as Deputy Director-General covering multilateral trade policy, trade relations with North America and European neighbourhood countries, as well as trade defence. She holds degrees from Freiburg University and the College of Europe and a PhD from Tübingen University.

As the United States faces into a number of consequential elections including the Presidential Election in 2024, along with elections to Congress as well as several gubernatorial elections, the shape of the political landscape in the United States both during the election campaigns and after the political dust has settled will be highly significant for the future of the country’s democracy. In her address to the IIEA, Vanessa Williamson, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, assesses the possible consequences of the 2024 elections for the resilience of the institutions which underpin the US’ democracy. About the Speaker: Vanessa Williamson is a Senior Fellow in Governance Studies at Brookings, and a Senior Fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. She studies taxation, redistribution, democracy, and political participation. She is the author, with Theda Skocpol, of The Tea Party and the Remaking of Republican Conservatism.

In her speech, Andreja Metelko-Zgombić, State Secretary for Europe in the Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs of the Republic of Croatia, focuses on Croatia’s perspective on the forthcoming EU enlargement process, the institutional changes required to prepare the EU for enlargement, and the range of reforms to be implemented by the Western Balkan countries before accession, including the resolution of historical disputes. She also addresses the proposal of a so-called confidence clause for the region in the accession treaties, which would prevent a newly joined Member State from blocking the accession of another candidate country. Finally, she provides an assessment, ten years on, of how both Croatia and the EU have benefitted from the 2013 enlargement. About the Speaker: Andreja Metelko-Zgombić is the State Secretary for Europe at the Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs of the Republic of Croatia and holds a law degree. Prior to assuming this position in 2017, she held several prominent posts at the Ministry, including Chief Legal Adviser and Assistant Minister for European Law, International Law and Consular Affairs. Metelko-Zgombić is also the Senior Representative of the Republic of Croatia on the Standing Joint Committee on Succession Issues and the President of the Commission of the Government of the Republic of Croatia for Borders.

The EU has recently been placing greater weight on economic security as a distinct policy objective. How does this differ from past attempts to increase resilience and prevent crises? There is also a widespread view that increasing economic security should take the form of “de-risking” that preserves trade integrations as much as possible. But how do we determine exactly what needs de-risking? This lecture seeks to answer these questions and use the answers to the diagnose EU’s policy agenda on economic security. What has been achieved, where are the blind spots, and how can the chances of unintended consequences be minimised? About the Speaker: Jeromin Zettelmeyer has been Director of Bruegel since September 2022. Born in Madrid in 1964, Jeromin was previously a Deputy Director of the Strategy and Policy Review Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Prior to that, he was Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow (2019) and Senior Fellow (2016-19) at the Peterson Institute for International Economics; Director-General for Economic Policy at the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (2014-16); Director of Research and Deputy Chief Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (2008-2014); and an IMF staff member, where he worked in the Research, Western Hemisphere, and European II Departments (1994-2008).

According to Denis Staunton, a troubled economy at home and rising trade tensions abroad has seen China drop its aggressive Wolf Warrior diplomacy in favour of dialogue with the United States and a charm offensive towards the European Union. But can Beijing rescue the domestic economy from deflationary pressures without provoking a trade war over the export of goods such as electric vehicles and other green energy products? And how will the latest tightening of control in Hong Kong and continuing tensions over Taiwan and in the South China Sea affect China’s relations with the rest of the world? Irish Times journalist Denis Staunton, the only correspondent for an Irish news organisation in China, joins the IIEA from Beijing with an update. About the Speaker: Denis Staunton has been China Correspondent for The Irish Times based in Beijing since October 2022. He was London Editor from 2015 to 2022 and has previously been the newspaper’s correspondent in Washington, Brussels and Berlin and served as Foreign Editor and Deputy Editor.

This discussion at the IIEA touches on issues such as the ongoing update of the national energy and climate plans (NECPs), the Commission’s analysis and recommendation for the EU’s 2040 emissions reduction target, published on 6 February, and the first-ever European Climate Risk Assessment published on 11 March. The event takes place as part of the European Commission’s ‘roadshow’ about the future of EU climate and energy policy, which aims to discuss the actions needed to reinforce competitiveness while staying the course on the net-zero transition and to strengthen societal preparedness for, and resilience to, the unavoidable impacts of climate change.  Matthew Baldwin is Deputy Director-General at DG ENER, the European Commission’s energy department, where he leads the Energy Platform Task Force focused on ending EU dependence on Russian gas; and Jacob Werksman is Principal Adviser to the European Commission for Climate Action, specialising in international climate policy and environmental law, with extensive experience in multilateral negotiations and legal advisory roles.

In this address to the IIEA, Nicolai von Ondarza, Head of the EU/Europe Research Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), and Pervenche Berès, Board Member of Fondation Jean Jaurès, and former Member of the European Parliament for France (1994-2019), discusses the recently published Report of the Franco-German Working Group on EU Institutional Reform. The Report’s recommendations centre on three goals: strengthening the rule of law and the EU’s democratic legitimacy, increasing the EU’s capacity to act, and getting the EU ready for enlargement. About the Speakers: Pervenche Berѐs is a Board Member of Fondation Jean Jaurès, President of Association Europe-Finances-Régulation, a Member of the Ethic and Audit Committees of the ECB, and a Member of the AMF (Autorité des marchés financiers) Committee on Climate and Sustainable Finance. She was previously a Member of the European Parliament from 1994 to 2019, chairing the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, and the Employment and Social Affairs Committee. Ms Berѐs also acted as Rapporteur of the Temporary Committee on the Financial, Economic, and Social Crisis, Vice-President of the European Parliament delegation to the Convention in charge of the European Union Charter of Fundamental Rights and Member of the European Convention in charge of drafting a Constitution for Europe. Dr Nicolai von Ondarza is Head of the EU/Europe Research Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), a position he has held since 2020. From 2016 to 2020, he served as Deputy Head of the EU/Europe Research Division, and has worked in various positions at the SWP since 2010. Since 2013, Dr von Ondarza has been Organiser of the British-German Outlook Group, a yearly exchange between the SWP, Chatham House, the German Federal Foreign Office and the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). From 2012 to 2015, he was a Lecturer at Europa-Universität Viadrina.

Professor Larry M. Bartels discusses his new book Democracy Erodes from the Top: Leaders, Citizens and the Challenge of Populism in Europe. Professor Bartels challenges the narrative of a populist “wave” in contemporary European public opinion. He argues that electoral support for right-wing populist parties has increased only modestly, driven by populist entrepreneurs, the failures of mainstream parties, and media hype. He argues that Europe’s democratic backsliding reflects the ambitions of political leaders rather than public opinion. Professor Bartels concludes that the bottom-up interpretation of Europe’s political crisis needs to be turned upside down. About the speaker: Larry M. Bartels is May Werthan Shayne Chair of Public Policy and Social Science and University Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Law at Vanderbilt University. His books include Democracy Erodes from the Top: Leaders, Citizens, and the Challenge of Populism in Europe; Unequal Democracy: The Political Economy of the New Gilded Age (2nd ed); and Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government (with Christopher Achen). He is an elected member of the American National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the American Philosophical Society.

In her address, Renate Schroeder, Director of the European Federation of Journalists, discusses developments in media freedom and pluralism over Europe in recent years, including some examples of unprecedented attacks against media freedom and pluralism that threaten democracy. She assesses the lessons that can be learnt by the media sector, civil society, policymakers, and other stakeholders in this regard. Ms Schroeder focuses part of her discussion on the European Media Freedom Act (EMFA) as well as other regulatory opportunities and challenges for the media sector. Renate Schroeder is the Director of the European Federation of Journalists. In 1993 she joined the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) and she has worked at the United Nations, New York, and the Friedrich-Ebert Foundation in Brussels. She joined the EFJ in 2003. Renate studied International Relations and Political Science at Boston University (Bachelor’s Degree in 1988) and in Berlin at the Free University (Masters in 1992).

According to Dr Dunkelberg, the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has long been premised from the perspective of Israel as the established state and Palestine as the non-state entity. In this keynote, he discusses a different possible reading of international legal history. A reading which revisits the traditional histories of Mandatory Palestine and the creation of a Palestinian State in full awareness of their coloniality in order to offer new understandings that challenge the hegemonic consensus. About the Speaker: Dr. Alonso Gurmendi Dunkelberg is a Lecturer in International Relations at King's College London's Department of War Studies. He specialises in history of international law, from a postcolonial and Global-South-centred approach. He is a contributing editor at the international law blog Opinio Juris.

According to Casey Michel, for years, Western foreign lobbyists have worked as foot-soldiers for the most authoritarian regimes around the planet. In the U.S. alone, the foreign lobbying industry is now worth billions of dollars. And it's no longer just PR shops or traditional lobbying shops. Instead, the industry now encompasses former officials, consultancies, law firms, think tanks, and even universities - all working on behalf of foreign dictatorships. In his address to the IIEA, Casey Michel discusses how this industry grew so quickly, and with so few paying attention? What kinds of threats does it present to democracy and what can be done? About the Speaker: Casey Michel is the Director of the Combating Kleptocracy Program at the Human Rights Foundation. He is the author of American Kleptocracy: How the U.S. Created the World's Greatest Money Laundering Scheme in History, and the forthcoming Foreign Agents: How American Lobbyists and Lawmakers Threaten Democracy Around the World, both published by St. Martin's Press. His writing has appeared in Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Atlantic, Foreign Affairs, and Foreign Policy, among many more outlets. He currently lives in New York.