The Asia Chessboard

This week, Mike and Jude discuss the recent presidential legislative elections in Taiwan with Richard Bush, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and the former chairman and managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan.

Mike and Jude are joined by Demetri Sevastopulo, US-China Correspondent at the Financial Times. Demetri discusses covering China as a member of the news media and of what it takes to break news on China in a competitive market. Jude, Mike, and Demetri then exchange views on US-China relations today, including recent bilateral diplomacy and evolving cross-Strait dynamics. Next, they turn to debate on the US-China relationship in Washington, exploring the nature and bounds of bipartisan “consensus” on China. They conclude by discussing how nations around the world are viewing the US election.

Mike is joined by Lisa Curtis, Senior Fellow and Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. The conversation begins with a review of the contemporary and historical factors encouraging India and the United States to expand their partnership. Next, they examined the remaining hurdles for the relationship, including the recent Sikh assassination plots. They conclude by discussing the perception of democratic backsliding in India and the role of India’s foreign policy choices in shaping US-India relations.

Mike is joined by Dr. John Kunkel, Senior Economics Adviser at the United States Studies Centre. Dr. Kunkel has worked as an economist, speech writer, policy analyst, and adviser to government and industry executive and previously served as Chief of Staff to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. He has a PhD in Economics from the Australian National University and is the author of "America's Trade Policy Towards Japan: Demanding Results", a study of US-Japan trade relations from Reagan to Clinton.  The conversation begins by placing the Australian economy amid the shifting economic order of recent years. Mike and John note that the contemporary Australian debate has come late in adapting to these global economic changes, partially due to the country’s large resource base and overall economic resilience and flexibility. They discuss the unique position of Australia’s experience with globalization, which allowed it to avoid the worst of the domestic economic drawbacks that afflicted Europe and the United States. They then delve into the impact of ‘Bidenomics’ and US industrial policy on the economic debate in Australia, assessing how Australia is looking at these more protectionist policies to understand both the wrinkles and opportunities they present. After a discussion of evolving global economic dynamics and what a new American trade agenda should look like, they conclude by discussing an upcoming economic security conference in Australia, which is targeted at interpreting different international economic security policies, and tracking how these are transitioning over time.

Mike is joined by Dr. Joseph Chinyong Liow, the Tan Kah Kee Chair of Comparative and International Politics at Nanyang Technological University, where he is also a Research Advisor for the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.  The conversation begins with a review of the state of U.S.-China strategic competition in the aftermath of APEC 2023, and underscores regional discontent with the perceived lack of commitment from the United States to economic ties and international trade in the Indo-Pacific. They then turn to Singapore’s grand strategy that seeks to advance its interests amidst the discernible signs of escalating conflict among global powers and the ongoing transformation of the global order. Next they examine the new emphasis on ideological concerns in the foreign policy choices of states in the region. Finally, they conclude by discussing the conflict in Gaza and reactions in Singapore and the region.

Mike and Jude are joined by Evan Medeiros, Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies and the Cling Family Senior Fellow in US-China Relations at Georgetown University. He is also a Senior Advisor with The Asia Group and previously served for six years on the staff of the National Security Council as Director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia - and then as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Asia. He is editor and contributing author to the recent book Cold Rivals: The New Era of US-China Strategic Competition.  The conversation begins by evaluating the relative successes and failures of U.S. engagement toward China over previous decades and the state of the U.S.-China relationship. They review the field of China studies in the United States, exploring how it has adjusted in recent years in response to a changing China and evolving bilateral ties. After assessing the effects of Xi Jinping’s arrival on China’s political stage on bilateral relations and the current state of crisis communications between the U.S. and China, they conclude by forecasting the what the relationship will hold in the coming years and the challenges and pitfalls of managing strategic competition.

Mike and Jude are joined by Sergey Radchenko, the Wilson E. Schmidt Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Sergey is an accomplished author, and has written extensively on the Cold War, nuclear history, and on Russian and Chinese foreign and security policies.  The conversation begins by delving into the nature of Beijing’s ties with Moscow, and how they have evolved from the Cold War. They explore points of divergence in the interests of China and Russia, and assess how both countries have reacted to frictions in the relationship over time. Next, they turn to the war in Ukraine, examining to what extent tightening Beijing-Moscow ties might have affected Putin’s ultimate decision to invade, and then discuss China’s strategic interests in how the conflict ends. Finally, they discuss ideological alignment between China and Russia, and how each state aims to shape the global order, before briefly considering the scope of Russia’s likely responses to escalating tensions between the U.S. and China in Asia.

Mike and Jude are joined by Huong Le Thu, Deputy Director of the Asia Program at the International Crisis Group. She is also an Adjunct Fellow with the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS and a former senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Her research on Vietnam’s defense and foreign policy, Southeast Asia’s security, ASEAN regionalism, and China-Southeast Asia relations has featured in a wide range of publications.  The conversation begins with an overview of Vietnam’s geostrategic landscape, exploring how the strategic thinking of its political leaders has matured over the recent years and months. Next, they describe Vietnam’s recent attempts to leverage competition between China and the United States to its advantage. They delve into the drivers behind Vietnam’s recent decision to upgrade its relationship with the United States to a comprehensive strategic partnership and review areas in which Chinese inroads in South and Southeast Asia may be underappreciated in the West. They then explore the ways in which Vietnam is adopting an omnidirectional foreign policy, seeking to improve its resilience by buttressing relations with as many partners as possible. Finally, they discuss the evolving role Vietnam envisions for ASEAN as it broadens its partnerships outside the region.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Mr. Tatsuya Terazawa, Chairman and CEO of the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan. Previously he served as the Senior Advisor of the Cabinet Office of Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura. Earlier he served at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan where he held leading positions including the Vice-Minister for International Affairs. He is also the Senior Specially Appointed Professor at the Tokyo University of Science, where he teaches international negotiations.    The conversation begins by examining how Tokyo is approaching de-risking and technology competition. They describe Japan’s early experiences facing economic coercion as a driving force behind its development of an economic security strategy. Next, they explore China’s role in the clean energy transition, emerging policy responses to its control of key inputs in the West, and the approaches U.S. and allied governments need to pursue to stay competitive. They note the importance of better coordination among stakeholders involved in climate politics, energy policies, and economic security. After discussing the dispute between China and Japan over the release of wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear facility, they end by examining the difficult balancing act of taking measures to reduce national CO2 emission while safeguarding partner state business interests.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Erin Murphy, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow for the Economics Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where she is currently transitioning to the Asia Program. Erin's career has so far spanned public and private sector roles, including as an analyst on Asian political and foreign policy issues at the Central Intelligence Agency, director for the Indo-Pacific at the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, and founder and principal of a boutique advisory firm focused on Myanmar. She is also the author of Burmese Haze: US Policy and Myanmar's Opening-and Closing (Association for Asian Studies, 2022).   The conversation begins by examining the state of affairs in Myanmar, including the lead up and aftermath of the 2021 military coup. Next they explore Myanmar’s relationship with China and the degree of Beijing’s policy influence over the the current leadership. They observe Myanmar’s evolving relationships with India and Japan, before turning to consider the space available for China to make common cause with other countries in the region to address some of the problems unfolding in Myanmar. They conclude by discussing the impact of the ongoing crisis in Myanmar on ASEAN, and surveying Myanmar’s possible trajectories in the medium and long term.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by C. Raja Mohan, Senior Fellow with the Asia Society Policy Institute in Delhi and Visiting Research Professor and former Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) at the National University of Singapore. Mohan was the founding director of Carnegie India in Delhi – the sixth international center of Carnegie Endowment for Peace, and has previously served on India’s National Security Advisory Board.   They begin by examining India’s strategic outlook since the end of the Cold War, considering India’s history, the evolution of its economic model, and shifts in the political perspectives and priorities of the Indian government. They then turn to India’s role in BRICS – examining the relationship of India and China within the organization, the reasoning behind India's participation in BRICS, and implications of the August 2023 BRICS summit. Next they discuss Delhi’s changing relationship with Taipei and expanding engagement with Japan and Australia. The conversation concludes with an assessment of what India wants for its strategic future, and how it would interact with the international world order.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Thomas Parks, Country Representative for Thailand with The Asia Foundation and author of the recently published book Southeast Asia’s Multipolar Future: Averting a New Cold War. They begin with an overview of Southeast Asia’s experience during and following the Cold War and discuss the region’s desire to avoid a re-division into blocs. They explore how regional states are seeking to preserve strategic ambiguity in their international relations and diversify their economic partnerships to avoid becoming highly dependent on any one great power.  They then consider the effects a conflict in Taiwan would have on regional states’ autonomy and probable reactions if conflict were to occur, as well as regional perspectives on the prospects for major U.S.-China decoupling and associated vulnerabilities.   The conservation concludes by exploring space for multipolar cooperation in the region among small and middle powers, how they have prioritized deep connections with each other, and how this in turn allows them to enter into robust security or economic relationships with major powers while also preserving the perception of autonomy in the eyes of their peers.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Mr. Choi Shing Kwok, Director & Chief Executive Officer of the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, and head of the ASEAN Studies Centre and Singapore APEC Study Centre, to discuss ASEAN perspectives on issues in the Indo-Pacific.  The conversation first examines ASEAN’s current structure, organizational challenges, and the diversity of its individual members. They then discuss ASEAN’s relationships and interaction with other regional players, including Japan and Australia. Next, they turn to the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s 2023 Survey Report on the State of Southeast Asia, reviewing how the region views U.S.-China tensions and the priorities of the ASEAN nations as they navigate rising U.S.-China competition. They analyze the reactions of ASEAN members to Secretary Blinken’s June trip to Beijing and discuss survey trends which suggest growing support for the United States and the Quad in Southeast Asia. They conclude by considering how U.S. policy could be best designed to improve levels of trust among ASEAN member publics.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Professor Peter Dean, Director of Foreign Policy and Defense at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, and the principal drafter of the Australian government’s recent Defence Strategic Review, to discuss developments in Australia’s defense planning.   The conversation begins with a discussion of the Defence Strategic Review and the significant shift in Australia's strategic outlook that it represents. Next, Mike, Jude and Peter discuss how the perceived sustainability of U.S. engagement in the region factors into Australian defense planning. They examine developments in Chinese military capabilities that Canberra is watching closely, and what responses might be demanded. They then consider the complications of executing a cultural transformation in Australia’s defense forces and building national resilience. After turning briefly to Australia’s relationship with Taiwan and potential reactions to a contingency in and around the Taiwan Strait, they conclude with a discussion of the evolving U.S.-Australia alliance and how its further development can underpin stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Dr. Susan Shirk, Founding Chair of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego and the author of Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise (Oxford University Press, 2022), which examines the evolution of China’s domestic and foreign policy over the last 15 years.  The conversation begins by examining steps taken toward political decentralization and economic liberalization under Hu Jintao—and the reversal of these trends under Xi Jinping. Next, they discuss Xi’s governance style and the shortcomings of loyalty-based political systems. The discussion then turns to the recent G7 summit in Hiroshima and China’s reaction to its outcomes. After assessing U.S. China policy during the Trump and Biden administrations, they then consider how Xi might respond to renewed diplomatic overtures. After a discussion of the risks of U.S. overreaction to Beijing’s policies, they conclude with reflections on what—if any—actions can be taken to stabilize the deteriorating U.S.-China relationship.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Scott Morrison, former Australian Prime Minister and leader of the Federal Parliamentary Liberal Party from 2018-2022.  The conversation begins by assessing developments in China-Australia relations during Morrison’s time in office, delving into the various equities at play and domestic debates that unfolded as the government reevaluated the links between economics and national security and moved to a tougher approach on China. They then discuss Australia’s experience with Chinese economic coercion, and the importance of finding alignment between partners to build resilience to Chinese pressure. Next, they reflect on the growing strategic importance of the Quad, AUKUS, and Australia’s relationship with India. They wrap up with a discussion of U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific, assessing effective elements and identifying where U.S. policy needs to be improved.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Paul Haenle, Maurice R. Greenberg Director’s Chair of Carnegie China and former China director for the National Security Council staffs of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and Faryar Shirzad, who served in the Bush administration with Paul as deputy national security advisor for International Economic affairs and is now Chief Policy Office at Coinbase. They begin by recapping economic and security ties between the United States and China at the outset of the Bush administration in 2001, discussing the administration’s China policy and the legacy of its approach to Asia more broadly. The conversation turns to the broader implications of trends in U.S.-China economic relations, which are increasingly characterized by heightened government controls and expectations of national loyalty among multinational firms. Next, they emphasize the importance of placing the U.S.-China relationship on better footing and improving communication. They observe how the Bush administration’s efforts to shape the geopolitical environment around China have borne out today and conclude with a call for renewed U.S. pursuit of economic diplomacy. Throughout the conversation, they discuss Hand-Off, a collection of once-classified memos that the Bush administration passed to the incoming Obama administration to support a smooth transition for U.S. foreign policy.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Sue Mi Terry, Director of the Asia Program and the Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy at the Wilson Center, to discuss recent political and international security developments in the Korean Peninsula. They begin by examining the close alignment with the United States evinced in South Korea’s recent Indo-Pacific strategy, while noting South Korea’s careful balancing act to avoid conflict with China. They then turn to North Korea, exploring the Kim regime’s evolving nuclear doctrine and more frequent missile tests. Observing that the global response to these developments has been understated, they discuss potential international actions to break the deadlock on North Korean security issues. Next, they examine public opinion in South Korea toward the hypothetical acquisition of a nuclear arsenal, and Seoul’s desire for a more closely integrated deterrence policy with the United States. They conclude by considering the potential for domestic instability in North Korea and how China may be assessing North Korea’s more aggressive approach to nuclear testing.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Kurt M. Campbell, Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs in the National Security Council, and Mira Rapp-Hooper, Senior Adviser on China at the U.S. Department of State's Policy Planning Staff.  They begin by discussing educational and professional experiences that build the groundwork for successful careers in international relations.  They then discuss the recent one-year anniversary of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, noting that the approach reflects the recognition of “a new strategic era” in the region. They underline the Strategy’s focus on alliances and emphasize the importance of promoting broader regional engagement and shared interests beyond the framework of competition with China. Next, they discuss the implications of China’s evolving diplomatic approach towards the United States and regional partners. They conclude the conversation by exploring recent narratives of China’s overreach, and how U.S. strategy might react to a course correction in Beijing that would present China as a stronger, more reliable partner in the Indo-Pacific.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Emily Kilcrease, director of the Energy, Economics, and Security program at CNAS, who formerly served as deputy assistant U.S. trade representative and National Security Council director for international trade, investment, and development. They begin by examining the limits of U.S. leverage over semiconductor supply chains and how existing advantages are maintained by the continual innovation and investment of U.S. industry. They then discuss the U.S. government’s capacity to use semiconductor manufacturing chokepoints to slow China’s technological development and the recent expansion of U.S. export controls relating to sensitive high-end technologies. Next, they considered the broader effects of U.S. technology export policies and the need for the United States to adopt a multilateral approach that protects the high-tech industries of allies. They conclude the conversation by considering what form China’s response—and potential retaliation—to the new export controls might take.