Australia in the World

In the third episode of a mini-series on international order, Darren is joined by Amy King, an Associate Professor at the Australian National University, to discuss China. It is now cliché to say that China is having a major impact on the current order and its trajectory, but there is little agreement on what that impact is and how far it might go. Darren has taken a keen interest in this question in his academic research, co-authoring a paper titled “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony” with John Ikenberry that was published in 2023. The journal’s editors subsequently invited two scholars to write critiques, one of those being Amy King.   Darren opens by seeking Amy’s views on whether the “post-Cold War order” is a useful starting point to discuss China’s influence, and whether she agrees with US Secretary of State Blinken that that this particular order is at an end. They then turn to Darren’s paper, with Darren describing his model of “illiberal hegemony”, where China’s approach to order-building is partially extrapolated from its domestic models of political order and economic organisation. Amy has multiple disagreements both with the model and its implications, which makes for an engaging back-and-forth. This is another long and wonkish conversation, but returns continuously to practical questions, such what Australian diplomats might say when defending the (old) order to their colleagues across the region. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Amy King (bio): https://amykingonline.com/ Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4244377  || (gated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2178963 Amy King, “The Collective Logic of (Chinese) Hegemonic Order”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2253148 Matthew Stephen, “China and the Limits of Hypothetical Hegemony”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2259801 Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and Hegemony: An Exchange – The Authors Reply”, Security Studies (gated, contact Darren for a copy): https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2252735 Richard Flanagan, “Question 7” (novel): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/question-7-9781761343452 Sam Sachdeva, “The China tightrope: Navigating New Zealand's relationship with a world superpower: https://www.allenandunwin.co.nz/browse/book/Sam-Sachdeva-China-Tightrope-9781991006172/

In the second episode in a mini-series on international order, Darren is joined by Dr. Jenny Gordon to discuss the international economic order. Over the past 40 years Australia has arguably been the single greatest beneficiary of the post-war economic order, at least among the group of industrialised countries. But from the GFC to Brexit to paralysis in the WTO to the rise of weaponised interdependence, geoeconomics and industrial policy, the rules and institutions of that old economic order – and the international trade and investment that flourished within it – are all under threat. Dr Jenny Gordon is an Honorary Professor at POLIS: The Centre for Social Policy Research at the Australian National University and a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute. Jenny had a long career in government, most recently as Chief Economist at DFAT from 2019 to 2021. Prior to that she spent 10 years at the Productivity Commission as the Principal Advisor Research, worked in the private sector, and began her professional career at the Reserve Bank of Australia. She holds a PhD in economics from Harvard University. The conversation begins with the question: what was the old economic order, when did it begin and what did it do? As an economist, Jenny says the end of the Cold War is not a key turning point for the post-war economic order, one must go back to the 1970s and forward to 2000s find these turning points. She describes why the order worked well and how Australia did so well within it. The discussion moves to the problems and tensions that emerged that have led us to the current moment, and the two debate – and disagree slightly – on the actual state of the current economic order. Finally, they look to the future, and discuss industrial policy, climate change, alternative models of economic growth and, of course, geopolitics, as well as what the rules and institutions of the future might need to do to protect the benefits of economic openness while managing contemporary policy challenges like climate change. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Jenny Gordon (bio): https://www.lowyinstitute.org/jenny-gordon The Seven Moons of Maali Almeida: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Seven_Moons_of_Maali_Almeida Peter Bellwood, The Five-Million-Year Odyssey: The Human Journey from Ape to Agriculture: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691197579/the-five-million-year-odyssey 99 Percent Invisible (podcast): https://99percentinvisible.org/ Lupin (Netflix): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/80994082 Huberman Lab Podcast, “Dr. Becky Kennedy: Protocols for Excellent Parenting & Improving Relationships of All Kinds”, 26 February 2024: https://www.hubermanlab.com/episode/dr-becky-kennedy-protocols-for-excellent-parenting-improving-relationships-of-all-kinds

China's foreign minister, Wang Yi, visited Australia this week. The visit attracted a great deal of scrutiny, not just for the long list of issues in the bilateral relationship, but also Wang's meeting with former Prime Minister Paul Keating. Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC joins Darren to discuss the week's events. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, “Tibetan activists protest outside Chinese embassy against Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit”, ABC News, 20 March 2024: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-20/apn-protest-outside-chinese-embassy-as-wang-yi-visits/103611798 Daniel Flitton, “Don’t be timid about Trump, Australia, just roll with the punches, Lowy Interpreter, 21 March 2024: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/don-t-be-timid-about-trump-australia-just-roll-punches  

This episode is the first of a series of at least three that are linked by the theme of international order. Last year US Secretary of State Blinken said “what we’re experiencing now is more than a test of the post-Cold War order. It’s the end of it”. The concept of the possible ending of an order raises lots of questions: what exactly was the old order, why is it ending (if indeed it is), and what might come next? Why do these questions matter for Australia in the world? This series will try to tackle these questions from a few different angles. The first topic is war and international order. The two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has passed, and it is approaching six months since Hamas attacked Israel. These are conflicts with potentially major impacts on international order. They are also important for the leadership role the US might play in that order going forward. To discuss these conflicts through the lens of order Darren is joined by Andrew Phillips, an Associate Professor at the University of Queensland. Andrew’s research focuses on war, strategy, and international order, with a particular focus on Great Power rivalry and asymmetric violence as drivers of transformative change in world politics. Andrew and Darren recorded this episode earlier in March. They start with an assessment of where each of these conflicts is currently at, how they might end, and through what mechanisms they are affecting the broader international order, and the leadership role of the United States. It is one of the longest episodes in the history of the podcast, but the simple fact is that these types of conversations require such length to be done well. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Andrew Phillips (bio): https://polsis.uq.edu.au/profile/1348/andrew-phillips Darren Lim and G. John Ikenberry, “China and the Logic of Illiberal Hegemony”, Security Studies, 28 February 2023: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2178963 George Lawson and Ayşe Zarakol, “Recognizing injustice: the ‘hypocrisy charge’ and the future of the liberal international order”, International Affairs, Volume 99, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 201–217: https://academic.oup.com/ia/article/99/1/201/6967344 Dune (Part 2): https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15239678/ Ezra Klein Show (podcast), “Marilynne Robinson on Biblical Beauty, Human Evil and the Idea of Israel”, 5 March 2024: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/05/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-marilynne-robinson.html

A frenetic period of Australian diplomacy has wrapped up, after Australia hosted the ASEAN-Australia Special Summit in Melbourne, which commemorated 50 years of Dialogue Relations. The ABC’s Stephen Dziedzic followed events closely and joins Darren to talk through the week’s news. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, “Australia and South-East Asian nations endorse watered-down Melbourne Declaration to strengthen ties in the region”, ABC News, 6 March 2024: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-06/australia-south-east-asia-melbourne-declaration-asean-ties/103556630 Susannah Patton, X (Twitter) Thread with reflections on the ASEAN summit, 7 March 2024: https://twitter.com/SusannahCPatton/status/1765500247349039417 Greg Earl, “Economic diplomacy: Australia Inc’s new tilt at ASEAN”, Lowy Interpreter, 7 March 2024: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/economic-diplomacy-australia-inc-s-new-tilt-asean

Indonesians have voted for their next president, and while the results have not been finalised, Prabowo Subianto looks very likely to replace the incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi). Darren is joined by Aaron Connelly, Senior Fellow for Southeast Asian Politics and Foreign Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, to discuss politics in Indonesia. In particular, how did Jokowi’s former rival in his two election victories come to receive the president’s implicit support in this one? Who is the typical “swing voter” in Indonesia? How will Jokowi’s legacy be affected by the conduct of the election, and what might we expect from a Prabowo presidency, especially given his controversial past? Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Aaron Connelly biography: https://www.iiss.org/en/people/southeast-asian-politics-and-foreign-policy/aaron-connelly/ Pramoedya Ananta Toer, Buru Quartet Series: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/series/AN6/buru-quartet/ The National Security Podcast, “Election watch 2024: what makes Indonesian democracy unique?”, 8 February 2024: https://shows.acast.com/the-national-security-podcast/episodes/2024-indonesian-elections Lowy Institute Conversations, “The comeback general — Prabowo’s thumping victory and what it means for Indonesia”, 16 February 2024: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/conversations-comeback-general-prabowo-s-thumping-victory-what-it-means-indonesia

PM Albanese’s visit to Beijing has ended. Are Australia-China relations “stabilised”? And if so, what’s next? To discuss these big questions Darren is joined by Ben Herscovitch, his colleague at the ANU and author of the indispensable Substack newsletter “Beijing to Canberra and Back”. Relevant links Ben Herscovitch, “The Prime Minister's visit, what really caused relationship repair, and a policy takeaway”, Beijing to Canberra and Back, 30 October to 7 November 2023: https://beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/the-prime-ministers-visit-what-really Ben Herscovitch, “Australia should sanction Chinese officials abusing human rights”, Canberra Times, 7 November 2023: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8413517/no-escaping-an-uncomfortable-fact-about-pms-handling-of-china/ Darren Lim and Walter Colnaghi, “Allan Gyngell's podcasting contribution to Australian foreign policy”, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 7 November 2023: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10357718.2023.2272825 Yiruma, “River flows in you” (video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7maJOI3QMu0  N NASA, "Pale blue dot" (image): https://science.nasa.gov/resource/voyager-1s-pale-blue-dot/  Jurassic Park (Film): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jurassic_Park_(film)

Continuing a tradition of podcast, for the first episode back from a long summer break Darren is joined by good friend of the podcast Richard Maude to discuss what each learned from 2023, what trends were notable, and what we might expect – or hope for – in 2024. The discussion covers both the world, and Australia in the world, and the two are able to agree on the ‘word of the year’ for 2023: fragmentation. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Richard Maude biography: https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/richard-maude Secretary Antony J. Blinken Remarks to the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) “The Power and Purpose of American Diplomacy in a New Era”, 13 September 2023: https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-remarks-to-the-johns-hopkins-school-of-advanced-international-studies-sais-the-power-and-purpose-of-american-diplomacy-in-a-new-era/ Wang Yi speech at a symposium on the international situation and China's foreign relations in 2023, summarised in Xinhua piece: https://english.news.cn/20240109/f8a95bbb328642c1b11c05fb409bff9d/c.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Josh Rogin, Chaos Under heaven (Goodreads page): https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/54562943 Lawrence Durrell, Bitter Lemons of Cyprus (Goodreads page): https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/214948 Tracy Chapman and Luke Coombs, “Fast Car”, 2024 Grammys (video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEqb6xbeuCo

The ABC’s Stephen Dziedzic joins once again this episode. PM Albanese is visiting China later this week, and Darren frames a new bargaining phase of the relationship, in which both sides (but especially Australia) must manage multiple, complex, and cross-cutting equities. He imagines a ‘ledger’ of ‘wins’ for both sides, and the discussion revolves around what might lie behind some of the recent policy decisions made by the government that appear favourable to Beijing’s interests, such as Darwin port and anti-dumping duties. The PM has also just returned from a state visit to Washington DC, and so Darren and Stephen discuss the prospects of AUKUS getting through congress, the extent to which there are differences between the Biden Administration and the Albanese government on China, and some other interesting details from a speech delivered by the PM. Stephen then discusses his recent article with Lice Movono on the Fijian government reversing an apparent decision to join a statement criticising China on human rights. The podcast concludes touching upon the fact that Stephen just spent the past week sitting in senate estimates hearings – for what purpose, and what did he learn? Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, “Why did Beijing choose this moment to release Cheng Lei, and what might it signify?”, ABC News, 13 October 2023: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-13/cheng-lei-analysis-xiao-qian-beijing-albanese-visit/102972204 Stephen Dziedzic, “Federal government will not cancel Chinese company Landbridge's Port of Darwin lease”, ABC News, 20 October 2023: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-20/port-of-darwin-chinese-company-lease-not-cancelled/103003452 Stephen Dziedzic and Lice Movono, “Fiji to withdraw name from list of nations criticising China's human rights violations of Uyghur and Muslim minorities”, ABC News, 27 October 2023: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-27/fiji-backs-united-nations-china-human-rights-violations-xinjiang/103025888 Evan Osnos, “China’s age of malaise”, The New Yorker, 23 October 2023: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/30/chinas-age-of-malaise Jonathan Jones, Earthly Delights: A History of the Renaissance (Thames and Hudson, 2023): https://thamesandhudson.com.au/product/earthly-delights-a-history-of-the-renaissance/  

Almost six months have passed since the release of the Defence Strategic Review (DSR), and this episode Darren is joined by Zack Cooper, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, for an American perspective on Australia’s defence policy. The conversation starts with a basic conceptual model and fundamental tensions with Australia’s alliance with the US, before traversing a range of contemporary issues, including AUKUS, the possible re-election of Donald Trump and battlefield lessons from Ukraine. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Zack Cooper, biography: https://www.aei.org/profile/zack-cooper/ Department of Defence, “National Defence: Defence Strategic Review 2023”, April 2023: https://www.defence.gov.au/about/reviews-inquiries/defence-strategic-review Institute for the Study of War: https://www.understandingwar.org/ Binge Mode: Harry Potter (podcast): https://podbay.fm/p/binge-mode-harry-potter  

In an 'emergency' episode, Darren is joined by Ian Hall, a Professor at the Griffith Asia Institute, to discuss the truly explosive revelation made this week by PM Trudeau of Canada that Canadian authorities are pursuing allegations linking agents backed by the Indian government to the murder of a Sikh separatist leader (who was a Canadian citizen) on Canadian soil in June.  Noting this story is still in its early days, Ian describes the complex and troubled history and context to this incident, before the two think through the perspectives of the Indian and Canadian governments, and how third countries like Australia might approach the path forward.  Australia in the World is written, hosted and produced by Darren Lim, with editing by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

The Australian government has launched a new International Development Policy, and Darren is joined by Bridi Rice, CEO of the Development Intelligence Lab, for a discussion of all things development through an Australian lens. The conversation begins with some Development 101: what is “development? What are the goals of development policy and are they contested? How is development policy carried out in practice, and by whom? Bridi describes Australia’s development policy community as coming out of a decade in a “defensive crouch” and provides an overview of the new policy. The conversation ranges widely, including a focus on geopolitics and China and the question of how a development policy can place a climate change agenda at its core. Australia in the World is written, hosted and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Bridi Rice, biography: https://www.devintelligencelab.com/team/bridi-rice Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, “Australia’s International Development Policy”, August 2023: https://www.dfat.gov.au/development/new-international-development-policy   Eryk Bagshaw, “Ransom attack cripples Vanuatu government systems, forces staff to use pen and paper”, Sydney Morning Herald, 14 November 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/australia-called-in-to-help-after-hackers-shut-down-vanuatu-government-systems-20221114-p5by7a.html Pat Conroy, Audience Q&A, Development Policy Forum, Australian National University, 12 September 2023: https://ministers.dfat.gov.au/minister/pat-conroy/transcript/audience-qa-development-policy-forum-australian-national-university Stefan Dercon, Gambling on Development: Why Some Countries Win and Others Lose (2022):  https://www.amazon.com/Gambling-Development-Some-Countries-Others/dp/1787385620 Gambling on development, reviewed: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2022/09/14/book-review-gambling-on-development-why-some-countries-win-and-others-lose-by-stefan-dercon/ Gambling on development, presented to an Australian audience at ANU:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3mNwbNDoPg Hania Rani (musician and composer): https://haniarani.com Bluey The Album: https://www.bluey.tv/products/bluey-the-album/

This episode Darren is thrilled to be joined (for the second time) by Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC, perhaps the finest foreign affairs reporter in Australia and a dear friend of the podcast. While the episode commences with the premise of ‘stories that are bubbling beneath the surface’, over time a clear theme emerges – the domestic politics of security pacts. The conversation begins with a new agreement between Papua New Guinea and the United States that seems to be delaying Canberra’s efforts to conclude its own pact with Port Morseby. Next up is Vanuatu, where Australia was (surprisingly) able to procure the signing of a new security agreement when a new government took office last year, but which is now facing strong ratification headwinds. Meanwhile in Australia, grassroots discontent within the ruling Labor Party regarding AUKUS threatened to overflow at the party’s annual conference this past week. The majority of the podcast was recorded on 11 August, with a quick postscript recorded on 20 August.  Australia in the World is written, hosted and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Kenneth Clarke, Civilisation (TV series): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sX_r9R98DiY Empire (podcast): https://www.goalhangerpodcasts.com/battleground-copy China Power (podcast), ‘China’s Influence in Melanesia: A Conversation with Pete Connolly’, 2 August 2023: https://www.csis.org/podcasts/chinapower/chinas-influence-melanesia-conversation-pete-connolly Richard Kerbaj, The Secret History of the Five Eyes: The Untold Story of the International Spy Network (review): https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/oct/02/the-secret-history-of-the-five-eyes-untold-story-international-spy-network-by-richard-kerbaj-review Henry Reynolds, Truth-Telling: History, sovereignty and the Uluru Statement, NewSouth Books: https://www.newsouthbooks.com.au/books/truth-telling/

It’s time to resume, or start again. A lot has happened in the past four months, and Darren focuses on two big stories, or relationship trajectories: Australia-China, and US-China. Both might be trending in positive directions, but there have been bumps along the way. May the same be said for this podcast into the future! Australia in the World is written and produced by Darren Lim, with research, editing and co-hosting this episode by Walter Colnaghi, and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Penny Wong, “Meeting with China’s Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs Wang Yi - Opening remarks”, 13 July 2023: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/meeting-chinas-director-office-central-commission-foreign-affairs-wang-yi-opening-remarks Alan Tidwell, “The role of ‘diplomatic lobbying’ in shaping US foreign policy and its effects on the Australia–US relationship”, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 2017: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10357718.2016.1184620 Celebrating the Life of Allan Gyngell AO, 19 June 1947 - 3 May 2023 (video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ej7i_0bqVNM Leonard Cohen, “Come healing”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pKUwTooZ3o DPM Richard Marles’ statement ot the House of Representatives, 10 May 2023: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansardr/26693/&sid=0002 Video (see from 9:01:20am): https://www.aph.gov.au/News_and_Events/Watch_Read_Listen/ParlView/video/1108170 FM Penny Wong’s statement to the Senate, 10 May 2023: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansards/26728/&sid=0055 Video (see from 12:19:40): https://www.aph.gov.au/News_and_Events/Watch_Read_Listen/ParlView/video/1108162 Tim Watts, “Remarks in memory of Allan Gyngell AO”, 11 May 2023: https://ministers.dfat.gov.au/minister/tim-watts/statements/remarks-memory-allan-gyngell-ao Alan Bollard, Economists at war (book): https://global.oup.com/academic/product/economists-at-war-9780198846000?cc=au&lang=en& Rick Astley and Blossoms perform the songs of The Smiths at Glastonbury 2023 (youtube, but audio only): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ6KiHIWnFk

Allan Gyngell passed away on 3 May 2023. Darren talks about the past few weeks, and reads a short piece he wrote for the AIIA about his friend, and the podcast they built together. Relevant links Darren Lim, “Allan Gyngell and ‘Australia in the World’”, 5 May 2023: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/allan-gyngell-and-australia-in-the-world/ Penny Wong, “Passing of Allan Gyngell AO”, 3 May 2023: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/passing-allan-gyngell-ao Daniel Flitton, “Remembering Allan Gyngell, ‘the finest mind in Australian foreign policy’”, Lowy Interpreter, 3 May 2023: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/remembering-allan-gyngell-finest-mind-australian-foreign-policy Andrew Tillett, “Allan Gyngell remembered as ‘finest mind’ in foreign policy”, Australian Financial Review, 3 May 2023: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/allan-gyngell-remembered-as-finest-mind-in-foreign-policy-20230503-p5d599   Peter Varghese, “Vale Allan Gyngell AO”, Asialink, 3 May 2023: https://asialink.unimelb.edu.au/stories/vale-allan-gyngell-ao John Blaxland, “Vale Allan Gyngell: A remarkable contributor to Australia’s engagement with the world”, The Conversation, 4 May 2023: https://www.themandarin.com.au/219276-allan-gyngell-a-contributor-to-australias-world-engagement/ Kevin Rudd, “Statement on the death of Allan Gyngell AO”, 3 May 2023: https://www.kevinrudd.com/media/statement-on-the-death-of-allan-gyngell-ao Ludovico Einaudi, i giorni (youtube): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TL1v3KVi6go George Winston, Variations on the Kanon (youtube): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2CE5BZVk40

In the wake of Xi Jinping’s trip to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin, Allan and Darren ask – are we in a new Cold War? Is the concept a useful frame for understanding international affairs? We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links “Dr Heather Smith to become National President of the Australian Institute of International Affairs”, AIIA Press release, 17 November 2022: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/news-item/dr-heather-smith-to-become-national-president-of-the-australian-institute-of-international-affairs/ George Orwell, “You and the atom bomb”, 1945: https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/essays-and-other-works/you-and-the-atom-bomb/ Aaron Friedberg, “Why didn’t the United States become a Garrison State” (article): https://www.jstor.org/stable/2539189 Aaron Friedberg, In the shadow of the Garrison State (book): https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691048901/in-the-shadow-of-the-garrison-state   “ChinaTalk: Stephen Kotkin on China” (podcast), 23 March 2023: https://www.lawfareblog.com/chinatalk-stephen-kotkin-china George Kennan, “The long telegram” (1946): https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/coldwar/documents/episode-1/kennan.htm “Speech by President von der Leyen on EU-China relations to the Mercator Institute for China Studies and the European Policy Centre”, 30 March 2023: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_23_2063 John Lewis Gaddis, The Long Peace (book): https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-long-peace-9780195043358?cc=au&lang=en& Odd Arne Westad, The Global Cold War (book): https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/global-cold-war/75870878657DC67E0BC70FA7D2388494 Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Security Studies (temporary free download): https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/HGZEHMIG6URDFUCTYCCN/full?target=10.1080/09636412.2023.2178963 Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Ungated paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4244377 John Lewis Gaddis, George F Kennan: An American Life (book): https://www.pulitzer.org/winners/john-lewis-gaddis Norah Jones (Wikipedia page): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norah_Jones

The members of AUKUS have laid out a more concrete plan for Australia to acquire a nuclear-powered submarine capability, and so Allan and Darren offer their views on progress to date, the merits of the overall plan, and what might be ahead. Next, following PM Albanese’s state visit to India, the two discuss the significance of the visit for the bilateral relationship, the two countries’ respective interests, and some of the challenges (such as human rights) in further deepening ties. Finally, they each offer their thoughts on the “Red Alert” series on the prospect of war with China published by Nine Newspapers. We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Joint leaders statement on AUKUS, 14 March 2023: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/joint-leaders-statement-aukus Brett Worthington, “Paul Keating savages AUKUS nuclear submarine deal as Labor's worst since conscription”, ABC News, 15 March 2023: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-15/paul-keating-anthony-albanese-penny-wong-aukus-nuclear-china/102098142 Roger Bradbury et al, “Progress in detection tech could render submarines useless by the 2050s. What does it mean for the AUKUS pact?”, The Conversation, 14 March 2023: https://theconversation.com/progress-in-detection-tech-could-render-submarines-useless-by-the-2050s-what-does-it-mean-for-the-aukus-pact-201187 Peter Varghese, “The balance sheet of the nuclear subs deal”, Australian Financial Review, 16 March 2023: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/the-balance-sheet-of-the-nuclear-subs-deal-20230315-p5csgi Laura Tingle, “Paul Keating can be his own worst enemy but his AUKUS spray raises big questions about China, defence, that have slipped us by”, ABC News, 18 March 2023: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-18/paul-keating-savage-mouth-aukus-questions-china-defence-slipping/102113150 “Is AUKUS flawed by design?” Net Assessment Podcast, 15 March 2023: https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/is-aukus-flawed-by-design/ Joint Statement – 1st Australia-India Annual Summit, 11 March 2023: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/joint-statement-1st-australia-india-annual-summit Peter Hartcher and Matthew Knott, “Red Alert”, Sydney Morning Herald: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/red-alert-20230306-p5cpt8.html Margaret Simons, “‘Pretentious’, ‘hyperbolic’ and ‘irresponsible’: what was behind Nine newspapers’ Red Alert series?”, Guaridan Australia, 17 March 2023: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/16/pretentious-hyperbolic-and-irresponsible-what-was-behind-nine-newspapers-red-alert-series Max Seddon, Christopher Miller and Felicia Schwartz, “How Putin blundered into Ukraine — then doubled down”, Financial Times, 23 February 2023: https://www.ft.com/content/80002564-33e8-48fb-b734-44810afb7a49 Come From Away (musical): https://comefromaway.com.au/

Marking one year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Allan and Darren reflect on what they have learned, what surprised them, and how they each are thinking about the path ahead. We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links “Ukrainian foreign minister responds to Amanpour's 'painful' question about war” (video), CNN, 21 February 2023: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tShC67Xp8m8 Olga Oliker, “Fighting While Female: How Gender Dynamics Are Shaping the War in Ukraine”, Foreign Affairs, 21 November 2022: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/fighting-while-female Dominic Johnson et al, “Overconfidence in wargames: experimental evidence on expectations, aggression, gender and testosterone”, Proceedings of the Royal Society B, Vol. 273, pp. 2513-2520: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2006.3606 China Matters Oration by the Hon Dr Kevin Rudd AC (video), 18 February 2023: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rlrkT8BXlg George Winston, “Summer” (1991): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summer_(George_Winston_album) Agathe Demarais, Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests (Columbia University Press, 2022): http://cup.columbia.edu/book/backfire/9780231199902

The “Chinese spy balloon” has dominated news for the past few weeks and thus Allan and Darren feel compelled to open the episode with their views. FM Penny Wong’s speech in the UK sparked controversy for her comments on colonial history, or did it? Meanwhile, a successful 2+2 with France highlighted how far the relationship has come since a low point in late 2020. DM Richard Marles spoke to parliament on the question of sovereignty and defence capabilities, while International Development Minister Pat Conroy wants to see more development specialists in leadership roles at DFAT. We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links “Chinese balloon part of vast aerial surveillance program, U.S. says”, Washington Post, 7 February 2023: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/07/china-spy-balloon-intelligence/ Penny Wong, “TV interview with Michael Rowland, ABC News Breakfast”, 6 February 2023: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/transcript/tv-interview-michael-rowland-abc-news-breakfast Penny Wong, “An enduring partnership in an era of change”, Speech, Centre for Grand Strategy, King's College, London, 31 January 2023: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/enduring-partnership-era-change Hans van Leeuwen, “Why Wong got a walloping in Britain this week”, Australian Financial Review, 3 February 2023: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/why-penny-got-a-pounding-in-britain-this-week-20230203-p5chne Richard Marles, “Securing Australia’s Sovereignty”, Statement to Parliament, 9 February 2023: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/statements/2023-02-09/securing-australias-sovereignty Matthew Knot, “‘AUKUS will enhance sovereignty’: Marles dismisses Keating, Turnbull concerns”, Sydney Morning Herald, 8 February 2023: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/aukus-will-enhance-sovereignty-marles-dismisses-keating-turnbull-concerns-20230208-p5cj1q.html   Stephen Dziedzic, “International Development Minister Pat Conroy wants AusAID to regain prominence within DFAT”, ABC News, 9 February 2023: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-09/pat-conroy-dfat-wants-development-specialists-ausaid-/101951876 “Anthony Albanese on navigating an insecure world”, Guardian Australia, Australian Politics Podcast, 4 February 2023: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2023/feb/04/anthony-albanese-on-navigating-an-insecure-world (Podcast Transcript: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/podcast-interview-guardian-australia-politics-podcast ) Annie Ernaux, “The years” (book): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/the-years-9781609807870 Jim Chalmers, “Capitalism after the crisis”, The Monthly, February 2023: https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2023/february/jim-chalmers/capitalism-after-crises#mtr Noah Smith, “Vertical communities”, Noahpinion (substack), 27 January 2023: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/vertical-communities

To kick off 2023, Allan and Darren continue their practice of asking how the events of previous year caused them to update their models of international affairs. But first they discuss PM Albanese's visit to Papua New Guinea and speech to the PNG parliament, and also a curious spat between the ambassadors to Australia from China and Japan, which leads to a larger discussion of different models of ambassador, and what a “Rudd model” might look like now that former PM Kevin Rudd has been named Australia’s next ambassador to the United States. We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Anthony Albanese, “A bond between equals”, Speech to the National Parliament of Papua New Guinea, 12 Jan 2023: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/bond-between-equals Press conference – Port Moresby, PNG and Australian PMs, 12 Jan 2023: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-port-moresby Matthew Knot, “Taiwan cannot be sacrificed to China, says Japan’s ambassador to Australia”, Sydney Morning Herald, 12 Jan 2023: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/taiwan-cannot-be-sacrificed-to-china-says-japan-s-ambassador-to-australia-20230112-p5cc30.html Embassy of Japan in Australia, Ambassador’s speeches, media contributions, interviews: https://www.au.emb-japan.go.jp/itpr_en/ambassador_media_speech.html Tyson Yunkaporta. Sand Talk: How Indigenous Thinking Can Save the World, Text publishing: https://www.textpublishing.com.au/books/sand-talk 14 Peaks: Nothing is impossible (Netflix): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81464765 Free solo (Disney Plus): https://films.nationalgeographic.com/free-solo