Australia in the World

In the second episode of the week recorded just 48 hours after the last one (around 12pm on Wed 1 April), Darren is joined once again by Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC to talk through what, again, has been a wild few days. In two Truth Social posts barely twelve hours apart, President Trump threatened to destroy Iranian desalination plants — a move legal experts describe as a war crime — and then told allies to "go get your own oil" signalling the United States may end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Taken together, these posts suggest something seismic: the effective repudiation of the Carter Doctrine, which since 1980 has been the foundational premise of U.S. security strategy in the Gulf. But then Darren and Stephen turn to a long overdue conversation about what this means for Australia and the region. They cover: The alliance. Australia has maintained carefully calibrated support for the U.S. strikes, but if Trump walks away from Hormuz, the question for Canberra shifts from "will we join an American-led operation?" to "will we join a deal with Tehran that Washington might hate?" Trump is effectively telling allies to solve a problem he created — but may condemn whatever solution they find. The region. Singapore's foreign minister Vivian Balakrishnan has framed this as an Asian crisis driven by an American war. Stephen reports on the fury across Southeast Asia, the limits of what countries like Singapore and the Philippines can actually do in response, and why — despite the rage — the short-term strategic calculus holding these alliances together may persist even as long-term trust fractures. Energy statecraft. Bloomberg reported this week that Penny Wong and Madeleine King are leveraging Australia's LNG exports in conversations with Asian partners. Stephen unpacks the competing signals from inside government — one camp talking about "bargaining chips," another insisting Australia is simply being a reliable supplier — and why the audience for much of this messaging may be domestic rather than international. Darren and Stephen explore the broader question of whether Australia needs a new toolkit for directing energy flows in a crisis. The Pacific. Pacific Island nations run almost entirely on diesel and face an existential crisis if supply disruptions continue into May and June. Stephen reports that Canberra is war-gaming options — from redirecting aid funding to sharing physical diesel supplies to folding the Pacific into bilateral energy deals with Singapore and others. The China-Pakistan five-point peace initiative, announced yesterday, is the first time a major power has proposed a concrete pathway to end the war. Darren raises Adam Tooze's provocative FT column on a "blueprint for Chinese global hegemony" — mocked and criticised, but capturing something real about the sheer demand for someone to lead. Darren and Stephen grapple with whether this crisis could pull China into a systemic stabiliser role it has never sought and may not want — and what that would mean for a world order already through the looking glass. The episode concludes with both noting that the Prime Minister is due to address the nation in hours, and Trump is scheduled to speak overnight — meaning everything discussed may be overtaken by events before listeners press play. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Trump Truth Social post threatening to destroy Iranian power plants, oil wells, and desalination plants (30 March 2026): https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/30/trump-iran-strikes-escalation-00850005 Trump Truth Social post: "Go get your own oil" (31 March 2026): https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-01/trump-anger-at-allies-as-hegseth-visits-mideast/106519152 Wall Street Journal — "Trump Tells Aides He's Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz" by Alexander Ward and Meridith McGraw (31 March 2026): https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-ee950ad4 Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan interview with Reuters (23 March 2026): https://www.mfa.gov.sg/newsroom/press-statements-transcripts-and-photos/transcript-of-minister-for-foreign-affairs-dr-vivian-balakrishnan-s-interview-with-reuters-global-managing-editor-for-world-news-mark-bendeich--23-march-2026/ The New Yorker — "Trump, Iran, and the Shadow of Suez" by Ishaan Tharoor (30 March 2026): https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/trump-iran-and-the-shadow-of-suez Stephen Wertheim (Carnegie Endowment) on the purpose of U.S. military role in the Middle East — quoted in The New Yorker The Economist — “Refine and dandy: Iran’s war bounty”, The Intelligence (podcast), 31 March:  https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2026/03/31/refine-and-dandy-irans-war-bounty Bloomberg — "Australia Aims to Use LNG Clout to Secure Asian Fuel Supplies" by Keira Wright and James Mayger (31 March 2026): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-31/australia-aims-to-use-lng-clout-to-secure-asian-fuel-supplies Australia-Singapore joint statement on energy security (23 March 2026): https://www.pm.gov.au/media/joint-statement-energy-security China-Pakistan five-point peace initiative (31 March 2026) : https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjbzhd/202603/t20260331_11884511.html Adam Tooze — "A Blueprint for Chinese Global Leadership," Financial Times (c. 30 March 2026): https://www.ft.com/content/cf2eeead-461d-4e3b-aeb7-48b30114643c Charles Kindleberger — The World in Depression, 1929–1939 (referenced in discussion of hegemonic stability): https://archive.org/details/worldindepressio00kind_0

Now in its fifth week, the Iran war may be about to enter its most dangerous phase. In a shorter update this episode, Darren assesses what he sees as four important dynamics as President Trump’s new extended 6 April deadline approaches: (1) the collapse of negotiations and the simultaneous buildup of U.S. ground forces in the region; (2) why seizing Kharg Island or Iran’s enriched uranium may be tactically feasible but strategically self-defeating; (3) the widening of the conflict as the Houthis enter the war and the economic damage compounds beyond recovery; and (4) why the regime change that is actually occurring in Tehran — toward a more radical, IRGC-dominated system — cuts directly against the logic of further escalation. If you've been following this series, this is the episode where the threads of the past month converge on a single question: does Washington recognise the strategic trap it is walking into, or does it fall in? Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Dan Lamothe, "Pentagon Prepares for Weeks of Ground Operations in Iran," The Washington Post, 29 March 2026: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/28/trump-iran-ground-troops-marines/ Alexander Ward et al, "Trump Weighs Military Operation to Extract Iran's Uranium," The Wall Street Journal, 30 March 2026: https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-weighs-military-operation-to-extract-irans-uranium-37427c8b Edward Luce, "Donald Trump Says US Could 'Take the Oil in Iran,'" Financial Times, 30 March 2026: https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz, twitter / x profile: https://x.com/citrinowicz

Three weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, Darren looks to international relations theory — particularly the bargaining and war termination frameworks associated with James Fearon — to explain why this conflict is so resistant to ending. He organises his thinking around two conditions for war termination: the existence of a mutually acceptable deal, and a credible mechanism for enforcing it. Neither condition is met, and the war is actively making both harder to achieve. Both sides are pursuing cost imposition, but with incompatible visions of what peace looks like. The US is destroying Iran’s military capacity; Iran is weaponising the Strait of Hormuz and attacking Gulf energy infrastructure. Darren examines why Trump’s coercive credibility has been undermined by the South Pars episode, why Iran’s energy war may be hardening rather than softening its neighbours’ resolve, and what Oman’s foreign minister’s extraordinary public intervention reveals about Gulf anger at both Iran and the United States. The episode offers two speculative theories for how the war might end — one centring on Trump’s psychology and capacity for narrative reinvention, the other on whether China could help solve the credible commitment problem by offering Iran something the US cannot. It closes with a reflection on what it means for analysts, governments, and markets when the most consequential variable in the system is a single unpredictable leader. A postscript addresses Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, issued hours before recording, threatening to destroy Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links The Economist, “There is plenty of scope for the Iran war to intensify,” 21 March 2026: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/03/19/there-is-plenty-of-scope-for-the-iran-war-to-intensify Malcolm Moore, Rachel Millard and Verity Ratcliffe, “‘Armageddon scenario’ for gas markets as Qatar hit by missiles,” Financial Times, 19 March 2026: https://www.ft.com/content/5b66d91f-f94a-4ea1-b90f-ce62ccb15d50 James Fearon, “Rationalist Explanations for War,” International Organization, 49(3), 1995: https://web.stanford.edu/group/fearon-research/cgi-bin/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Rationalist-Explanations-for-War.pdf RAND Corporation, Theories of Victory, Perspectives PEA1743-1, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA1743-1.html Brynn Tannehill, “Why the Iran War Could Last Far Longer Than Either Side Wants to Admit,” Byline Times, 20 March 2026: https://bylinetimes.com/2026/03/20/why-the-iran-war-could-last-far-longer-than-either-side-wants-to-admit/ Yaroslav Trofimov, “Iran Believes It’s Winning — and Wants a Steep Price to End the War,” Wall Street Journal, 20 March 2026: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-war-negotiations-demands-85555522 Adam Tooze and Cameron Abadi, Ones and Tooze podcast, “Economic Impact of Iran War,” 21 March 2026: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckRRxpoUoPc Thomas Wright, “The Disappearing Off-Ramp in Iran,” The Atlantic, 17 March 2026: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/03/iran-victory-trump/686411/ Badr Albusaidi, “America’s friends must help extricate it from an unlawful war,” The Economist, 21 March 2026: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2026/03/18/americas-friends-must-help-extricate-it-from-an-unlawful-war The Economist, “Operation Blind Fury,” 21 March 2026: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/03/19/war-in-iran-is-making-donald-trump-weaker-and-angrier Jake Sullivan and John Finer, The Long Game podcast, Week 3 episode (interview with Helima Croft), 21 March 2026: https://staytuned.substack.com/p/transcript-the-iran-war-energy-crisis David Sanger, “Trump Is Finally Eyeing an Exit From Iran. But Will He Take It?” New York Times, 21 March 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/us/politics/trump-iran-offramp.html  

Two weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, Darren uses Robert Pape's cost-benefit framework to assess where things stand. The tactical achievements are real — two-thirds of Iran's missile launchers destroyed, its navy sunk, its leadership decapitated — but the probability of converting those gains into durable strategic outcomes is low, and the costs are mounting fast. On the military side, interceptor stocks are being depleted at unsustainable rates, and missile defence assets may be being redeployed from South Korea in a move that achieves what Chinese coercion could not. Economically, Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered what may be the largest oil supply disruption in history, with cascading effects through gas, fertiliser, and food markets arriving at the worst possible moment in the agricultural calendar. Strategically, Russia is profiting, China is learning, Gulf allies are furious, and the non-proliferation incentive structure has been inverted. Darren assesses the range of plausible outcomes — from a painful but temporary shock to a nuclear-armed Iran within eighteen months — and examines the factors that will determine how the war ends, including US-Israel divergence, Trump's contradictory signals, and Iran's determination to ensure this is the last time it is attacked. He closes with an observation about weaponised interdependence: that a sanctioned middle power with cheap drones and a narrow strait has exposed the gap between America's capacity to destroy and its capacity to control. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Robert Pape, Bombing to win (1996): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/761594.Bombing_to_Win Caitlin Talmadge, “Closing Time: Assessing Possible Outcomes of U.S.-Iranian Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz,” International Security, 33(1), summer 2008: 82-11: http://www.caitlintalmadge.com/uploads/8/5/4/1/85419560/closing_time.pdf Caitlin Talmadge, "The Hormuz Minefield", Foreign Affairs, 13 March 2026: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/hormuz-minefield Vali Nasr, "Iran is playing a long game", Financial Times, 13 March: https://www.ft.com/content/93b7b65d-074b-4e8b-807f-5c27c7362213 Matthew Continetti, "Iran Can't Hold the World Hostage", Wall Street Journal, 13 March: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/free-expression/iran-cant-hold-the-world-hostage-05f595a4 Greg Brew, "The global oil crisis is even worse than it looks" (interview), Vox, 11 March: https://www.vox.com/politics/482142/oil-gas-prices-iran-war-inflation B.A. Friedman, "Orphaned Tactics", Fire for Effect Substack, 9 March: https://bafriedman.substack.com/p/orphaned-tactics Danny Citrinowicz, thread on tactical success masking strategic failure, X/Twitter, 14 March: https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2032786358930972854 Ezra Klein, "I Asked a Former Trump Official to Justify This War" (interview with Nadia Schadlow), New York Times, 10 March: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-nadia-schadlow.html Foreign Policy Live debate: Matthew Kroenig vs Trita Parsi, Foreign Policy, 12 March: https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/12/kroenig-parsi-debate-war-in-iran/ Shelby Talcott, “Israel is running critically low on interceptors, US officials say”, Semafor, 15 March: https://www.semafor.com/article/03/14/2026/israel-is-running-critically-low-on-interceptors-us-officials-say Gideon Rachman, "Simon Gass on Iran" (interview), The Rachman Review podcast, 12 March: https://www.ft.com/content/cba7352f-aac0-4a6a-8919-c0597bc94c43 Rory Johnston and Nader Itayim, Oil Ground Up podcast, 13 March: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7uPA9g5dWIYcvGH6vSSpEh Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal, "Oil markets" and "Fertiliser" episodes, Odd Lots podcast, 13–14 March: https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots China Talk podcast, "Second Breakfast: Iran", 14 March: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/iran-war-with-shashank Jake Sullivan and John Finer, interview with Danny Citrinowicz, The Long Game podcast, 12 March: https://staytuned.substack.com/p/america-doesnt-understand-iran-and Economist Intelligence podcast, " Lone goals: will US-Israel war aims diverge?", 13 March: https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2026/03/13/lone-goals-will-us-israel-war-aims-diverge

In (yet another) emergency episode, Darren offers eight initial thoughts on the US and Israeli strikes on Iran and the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei. Inside Iran, the question is whether airpower and decapitation can deliver regime change when the historical record says they never have — though this case may be an outlier given how weakened the regime already was. Regionally, Iran's “drizzle” retaliation strategy is targeting Gulf states and depleting expensive US interceptors, while the munitions being consumed come directly at the expense of what the US would need in a Taiwan contingency. Globally, no country or institution has any agency to shape what happens next — and China may be the quiet winner simply by being predictable while Washington lurches between crises. On international order, Darren explores how US deterrence is simultaneously stronger on willingness but weaker on material capacity, and why the Venezuela-Greenland-Iran sequence is normalising a new and dangerous operating model for the hegemon. On Australia, he thinks the government made the right call. He finishes by asking what we're learning about Trump's emerging “anti-Powell Doctrine”, what the erosion of rules means for world politics, and what constraints — if any — exist on this new kind of American power. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Charles Clover, Neri Zilber and Abigail Hauslohner, “Military briefing: Iran’s new retaliation strategy”, Financial Times, 1 March: https://archive.md/R24HQ#selection-1700.1-1889.0 Michael Gordon and Shelby Holliday, “U.S. Races to Accomplish Iran Mission Before Munitions Run Out”, Wall Street Journal, 1 March: https://archive.md/IHG7H#selection-547.0-547.62 Eliot Cohen, “Trump rolls the iron dice”, The Atlantic, 28 Feb: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/02/trump-rolls-iron-dice-iran/686199/ Kyle Chan, “China is winning by waiting: How Beijing turns predictability into power”, Foreign Affairs, 27 Feb: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/china-winning-waiting Tanner Greer, "On bombing Iran", Scholar's Stage, 1 Mar: https://scholars-stage.org/on-bombing-iran/

The US Supreme Court has struck down the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs. This is a big deal!  In this episode, Darren argues that the decision is not primarily a story about tariffs — important as they are — but about power. The Court has drawn a clear line around the President’s ability to declare an “emergency” and unilaterally impose across-the-board tariffs. While other tariff authorities remain in place, the removal of IEEPA as a rapid escalation tool represents a concrete institutional constraint on executive authority. What does that mean for Trump’s negotiating leverage? How does it change the international landscape — particularly ahead of a planned visit to Beijing? Why does this matter for Australia’s vision of regional order? Darren cannot avoid the bad news: heightened uncertainty, likely litigation, and the longer-term drift toward protectionism that this ruling will not reverse. But ultimately, this episode asks a bigger question: what actually constrains presidential power in the United States? And does this moment represent a small but meaningful crack in the aura of inevitability surrounding the current administration? Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

A week after his emergency episode on President Trump’s threats to acquire Greenland, Darren returns with a rapid debrief of the Davos meetings—and what it means for the world (and for Australia). The immediate crisis appears paused: Trump has shifted from “ownership” to a negotiating “framework” focused on Arctic security, basing access, and keeping China and Russia out. Still, Darren thinks the sovereignty question is not resolved, and these events are a marker of deeper institutional decay. Darren then unpacks Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s much-discussed Davos speech: a blunt warning that the world is experiencing a rupture of the international order, not a smooth transition. He shares Carney’s sense of urgency, but challenges parts of the diagnosis—and explains why those analytical distinctions matter for policy choices. He assesses Trump’s proposed “Board of Peace” as a signal of how personalist, status-driven institutions can emerge when rules weaken. Darren also reflects on power—arguing that Trump’s performative displays of raw strength risk the Athenian problem of overreach and backlash, while for middle powers real leverage often lies in domestic resilience: the capacity to mobilise politically and absorb pain long enough to hold the line. The episode finishes once again with an Australia angle, given Canberra has benefited from luck as much as strategy. What are Australia’s red lines—and when would it speak up for partners before silence becomes precedent? Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Thomas Wright, “Europe’s red lines worked”, The Atlantic, 22 January: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/01/greenland-crisis-trump-diplomacy-nato/685715/ Paul Krugman, “Trump 1, Europe 1”, Paul Krugman (Substack), 23 January: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-0-europe-1 Davos 2026: Special address by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, 20 January: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/davos-2026-special-address-by-mark-carney-prime-minister-of-canada/ Richard Green and Daniel Forti, “The board of discord”, Foreign Policy, 22 January: https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/22/trump-board-of-peace-united-nations-gaza-ukraine-international-cooperation/ Anton Troianovski, “Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ Would Have Global Scope but One Man in Charge” New York Times, 21 January: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/us/politics/trump-board-peace-united-nations.html Sara Jabakhanji, Graeme Bruce, “Here are the countries joining Trump's 'Board of Peace' so far”, CBC News, 22 January: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/board-of-peace-gaza-trump-list-of-countries-9.7055866 Seva Gunitsky, “The Strong Will Suffer What They Must:Vaclav's Grocer and American Hubris”, Hegemon (Substack), 21 January: https://hegemon.substack.com/p/the-strong-will-suffer-what-they Krzysztof Pelc, “The look of empire: Donald Trump’s dangerous fixation with imperial aesthetics”, Foreign Policy, 22 January: https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/22/trump-venezuela-empire-greenland-nato-europe/ Kyla Scanlon, “The Great Entertainment: Can you govern the world like a reality TV show?”, Kyla’s Newsletter (Substack), 22 January: https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-great-entertainment Kate McKenzie and Tim Sahay, “Canada's new non-alignment: What sovereignty means now” Polycrisis Dispatch, 23 January: https://buttondown.com/polycrisisdispatch/archive/canadas-new-non-alignment/ Alan Beattie, “Carney’s new global order needs a huge shift in political will”, Financial Times, 22 January:  https://www.ft.com/content/5dcbc846-5f32-4076-909b-94b5ef87895c Sarah Marsh and Elizabeth Pineau, “Europe's far right and populists distance themselves from Trump over Greenland”, Reuters, 22 January: https://www.reuters.com/world/europes-far-right-populists-distance-themselves-trump-over-greenland-2026-01-21/ The Rest is Politics (podcast), The real reason Trump wants Greenland, 21 January 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJ0P-xkIQHY

Less than a year into Trump’s second term, his renewed push to acquire Greenland has escalated into a full-blown alliance crisis—complete with tariff threats against Denmark and other European backers, and a scramble for NATO unity. In (already) his second “emergency” episode of 2026 recorded solo on 18 January, Darren starts off by observing this episode doesn’t neatly fit neat orthodox models of international relations—it looks less like balancing or normal alliance bargaining and more like coercion and hierarchy politics, forcing Europe to weigh retaliation, endurance, and face-saving off-ramps. Given that, what kind of model(s) are useful? Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stacie Goddard and Abraham Newman. 2025. “Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System.” International Organization 79(S1): S12–25. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818325101057 Joshua Keating, “Confused by the Trump administration? Think of it as a royal family.”, Vox, 6 Dec 2025: https://www.vox.com/politics/471070/trump-neoroyalism-monarchy

In an episode recorded just before Christmas, Darren interviews Janet Egan, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of the Technology and National Security Program at CNAS, about AI policy and its implications for Australia. Janet (who started her career in the Australian government) frames the current AI landscape as a two-horse race between the US and China, given vastly asymmetric investment levels. She introduces “compute policy” as a tractable governance lever, explaining that the physical infrastructure required for AI—specialised chips, data centres, and energy—offers regulatable chokepoints unlike easily transferable data or algorithms. The US strategy focuses on scale and removing barriers to advancement, while China, constrained by export controls on advanced semiconductors, pursues a diffusion-oriented approach emphasising open-source models and practical applications. Turning to Australia's recently released National AI Plan, Janet offers a mixed assessment. She praises the establishment of an AI Safety Institute and the acknowledgment that data centres matter, while noting the plan avoided overly restrictive regulation that could stifle investment. However, she argues the plan misses a significant opportunity: positioning Australia as a compute hub for frontier AI training. Australia’s renewable energy potential, available land, and skilled trades workforce make it attractive for data centre buildout, but copyright restrictions on training data remain a key barrier. Janet argues that unlike critical minerals, AI does not lend itself to hedging between Washington and Beijing given its inherently dual-use nature and emerging evidence of bias in Chinese models. She highlights the UAE and UK as instructive cases—the former for ambitious state-led mobilisation, the latter for sophisticated thinking about AI sovereignty structured around supply resilience, value capture, and strategic influence. For Australia, she argues, meaningful participation in the AI supply chain would provide strategic leverage and a seat at the table where consequential decisions are being made. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Janet Egan (bio): https://www.cnas.org/people/janet-egan Janet Egan, Spencer Michaels and Caleb Withers, “Prepared, Not Paralyzed: Managing AI Risks to Drive American Leadership”, Center for New American Security, 20 Nov 2025: https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/prepared-not-paralyzed Janet Egan, “Global Compute and National Security: Strengthening American AI Leadership Through Proactive Partnerships”, Center for New American Security, 29 July 2025: https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/global-compute-and-national-security Lennart Heim, Markus Anderljung and Haydn Belfield, “To Govern AI, We Must Govern Compute”, Center for New American Security, 28 March 2024: https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/to-govern-ai-we-must-govern-compute Emanuele Rossi, “Undersecretary Helberg explains Pax Silica and the Indo-Pacific AI play” Decode 39, 17 December 2025: https://decode39.com/12841/undersecretary-helberg-explains-pax-silica-and-the-indo-pacific-ai-play/ Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, “Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025”, https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report Department of Industry, Science and Resources (Australia), National AI Plan, December 2025: https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/national-ai-plan Helen Toner, “Rising Tide” (substack): https://helentoner.substack.com/ Lady Gaga, How Bad Do U Want Me (Official Audio): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nd_M9A5xFlY

To begin 2026, the Trump administration has once again served up a news story of immense implications, with a military intervention and seizure of Venezuela's President Maduro. In this episode, Darren talks through his initial reactions to this developing story.  Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Darren is joined by returning guest Richard Maude to unpack what Australian foreign policy looks like in late 2025. The conversation centres on Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s recent AIIA speech, which Darren argues—mostly with Richard’s agreement—marks a clear evolution in Australia’s foreign policy doctrine. The traditional three pillars — alliance, region, and rules — have been replaced by a new framework, the "Four Rs": Region, Relationships, Rules, and Resilience. The discussion explores what this shift reveals about how Canberra sees the world today, and what it tells us about Australia’s strategic priorities as the international environment becomes more volatile. Together, they assess how well the government is executing each of the “Four Rs” in practice — from strengthening ties across Southeast Asia and the Pacific, to managing the alliance with an unpredictable Washington, stabilising relations with Beijing, and linking foreign policy more overtly with domestic resilience. They ask whether Australia is being suitably ambitious in shaping the regional security environment, or whether it risks becoming over-focused on Southeast Asia at the expense of alliance leadership and broader coordination with partners like Japan, Korea and Europe. Darren and Richard also grapple with Australia–China relations. Is Canberra being too cautious in public language — or sensibly risk-averse? Darren frames the question as whether the greater risk currently lies in under-reacting to the threat posed by China, or in over-reacting. And how should Australia manage economic dependence on China given the limits of diversification and the “iron laws” of trade?  The fourth R is resilience, and they discuss whether tying domestic policy to foreign policy is a strength or a political trap. They consider how resilience language enables governments to justify hard economic choices, while also warning against overselling national security policy as economic strategy. Finally, Darren and Richard look ahead to 2026. Richard nominates three global questions to watch closely: the trajectory of US–China relations, the fate of Ukraine, and whether anything remains of the liberal international project. Darren adds his own focal points: Australia’s critical minerals strategy, Europe’s struggle with Chinese economic leverage, and the political durability of Trump’s dominance ahead of the US midterms. A wide-ranging episode on doctrine, diplomacy and domestic politics — and what it all means for Australia navigating a world that feels, as Richard once put it, "completely stuffed". Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Richard Maude (bio): https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/richard-maude Penny Wong, “AIIA Gala Dinner Keynote Address”, 17 November 2025: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/aiia-gala-dinner-keynote-address Darren Lim and Hannah Nelson, “From Three Strands to Four Rs: The Evolution of Australian Foreign Policy”, Australian Outlook, 21 November 2025: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/from-three-strands-to-four-rs-the-evolution-of-australian-foreign-policy/ Penny Wong, “Speech to the ANU National Security College “Securing our Future”, 9 April 2024: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/speech-anu-national-security-college-securing-our-future Allan Gyngell, Fear of Abandonment: Australia in the World since 1942: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/fear-abandonment Heather Smith, “Australia and Economic Cold War – Drifting into the New Paradigm”, AIIA 2025 National Conference Address, 17 November 2025: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/australia-and-economic-cold-war-drifting-into-the-new-paradigm/ Penny Wong, TV interview, ABC Insiders (with David Speers), 16 November 2025: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/transcript/tv-interview-abc-insiders-0 Eli Hayes and Darren Lim, “Not every critical mineral is equal – and Australia’s policy should reflect this”, Lowy Interpreter, 10 November 2025: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/not-every-critical-mineral-equal-australia-s-policy-should-reflect Darren Lim and Nathan Attrill, “Australian debate of the China question: The COVID-19 case”, Australian Journal of International Affairs (2021): https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10357718.2021.1940094 (gated) or https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3856586 (ungated) Jedediah Britton-Purdy and David Pozen, “What are we living through?”, Boston Review, 15 October 2025: https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/what-are-we-living-through/ Lachlan Strahan, The Curious Diplomat: A memoir from the frontlines of diplomacy (Monash University Publishing, 2025): https://publishing.monash.edu/product/the-curious-diplomat/ Nick Potkalitsky, “Where Should Student AI Literacy Live?”, Educating AI (Substack), 25 September 2025: https://nickpotkalitsky.substack.com/p/where-should-student-ai-literacy Ethan Mollick, “The Best Available Human Standard”, One Useful Thing (Substack), 22 October 2023: https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/the-best-available-human-standard Ethan Mollick, “15 Times to use AI, and 5 Not to”, One Useful Thing (Substack), 9 December 2024: https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/15-times-to-use-ai-and-5-not-to

Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute returns to the podcast to discuss the recent Trump-Xi meeting in Seoul. Who got the better deal, and is the year-long “truce” a stable one?  As both sides look to use this window to de-risk, who will have more leverage over the medium term? More broadly, Trump’s Asia trip was a very important data point in helping us all understand what US foreign policy is now, how it is made, and what direction it’s going in. The answers are not satisfying and very uncertain, but it’s the most important question in international affairs today. There is no-one better than Zack to help one build a model of US foreign policy in the Trump era. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Zack Cooper, “How Trump Put China First”, Time, 7 November: https://www.aei.org/articles/how-trump-put-china-first/ Lindsey Ford and Zack Cooper, “America’s Alliances After Trump: Lessons from the Summer of ’69”, Texas National Security Review, Vol. 4, Iss. 2, Spring 2021, pp. 99-116: https://tnsr.org/2021/03/americas-alliances-after-trump-lessons-from-the-summer-of-69/ Darren Lim and Zack Cooper. (2015). “Reassessing Hedging: The Logic of Alignment in East Asia”. Security Studies, 24(4), 696–727:  https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2015.1103130 Ezra Klein, “This Is How the Democratic Party Beats Trump”, New York Times, 2 November 2025 (video): https://www.nytimes.com/video/opinion/100000010495041/this-is-how-the-democratic-party-beats-trump.html Vanity Fair, “How EJAE & Mark Sonnenblick Created Grammy-Nominated “Golden" From KPop Demon Hunters” (video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxEX_GWwE7M Joseph Torigian, “The Party’s Interests Come First: The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping” (2025): https://josephtorigian.com/bookmanuscript/

The much-anticipated face-to-face meeting between Prime Minister Albanese and President Trump has happened, not in the Oval Office but the Cabinet Room of the White House. The PM will be very pleased with how it went, with only one major casualty – embarrassment for Australia’s US Ambassador Kevin Rudd, after past tweets critical of the president were brought up, creating some awkwardness. To discuss the dynamics and outcomes of the meeting Darren welcomes Dr. Charles Edel to the podcast, a long overdue guest, and the best-placed individual anywhere to provide insight into these events, and the broader alliance relationship. Why was the meeting needed? While widely agreed to have gone well, what exactly made the meeting a success? What is the status of AUKUS now, and what about critical minerals? And, while he did not have a good time at the meeting, how has Kevin Rudd been an essential part of the process and key to its success? Charles is a senior adviser and the inaugural Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He previously taught at the University of Sydney, where he was also a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre. Prior to that, Charles was a professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and served on the U.S. secretary of state’s Policy Planning Staff. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Charles Edel (bio): https://www.csis.org/people/charles-edel Abraham Denmark and Charles Edel, “The AUKUS Inflection: Seizing the Opportunity to Deliver Deterrence”, CSIS Australia Chair Report, August 2025: https://www.csis.org/analysis/aukus-inflection-seizing-opportunity-deliver-deterrence Annabel Crabbe, “When Donald Trump was ready to take his pound of flesh, Kevin Rudd was here to help”, ABC News, 21 October: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-21/trump-albanese-meeting-rudd-pound-of-flesh/105916336 Australian Industry Group, “Developing industry capability and partnerships for AUKUS Pillar 2”, Report, August 2025: https://www.aigroup.com.au/globalassets/news/reports/2025/ai_group_spg_report_aukus_pillar-ii.pdf Trent Dalton, Gravity let me go, (4th estate, 2025): https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9781460713334/gravity-let-me-go/

Darren welcomes back Tim Watts MP to the podcast. Tim is now the government’s Special Envoy for Indian Ocean Affairs having also served as assistant minister for foreign affairs in the Albanese government’s first term. The discussion begins with Tim’s new role and the importance of the Indian Ocean Region to Australia’s national interests. From there, Darren asks Tim to reflect on his time as Assistant Foreign Minister and what the work he did says about Australian foreign policy more broadly. What are the inputs to success? The conversation finishes with the vital (and ongoing) challenge of Asian capability.  Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Peter Dean and Alice Nason, An Australian Indian Ocean agenda to 2035, United States Studies Centre Report, September 2025: https://www.ussc.edu.au/an-australian-indian-ocean-agenda-to-2035 Allan Gyngell, “White-papering Australian foreign policy”, East Asia Forum, 22 May 2017: https://eastasiaforum.org/2017/05/22/white-papering-australian-foreign-policy/ Tim Watts, “Complacent nation: Australia and the Asian Century”, Lowy Interpreter, 22 September 2025: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/complacent-nation-australia-asian-century Joya Chatterji, Shadows at Noon: The South Asian Twentieth Century (Vintage, 2024): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/shadows-at-noon-9781529925555 David Van Reybrouck, Revolusi: Indonesia and the Birth of the Modern World (Vintage, 2025): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/revolusi-9781529931525 Stephen Dziedzic and Yiying Li, “BHP vs China Inc: What the iron ore dispute says about Australia's present and future”, ABC News, 17 October: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-17/what-bhp-china-iron-ore-dispute-means-to-australia/105901692

Former Victorian Premier Dan Andrews made headlines when he was snapped in a picture with Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un, amongst others, at China’s recent military parade. While Andrews’ activities were puzzling, they also raise bigger questions around both the opportunities and the limits of Australia’s bilateral relationship with China. Will Glasgow, The Australian newspaper’s North Asia Correspondent, based in Beijing, joins Darren for this episode. Will is winner of the Keith McDonald Award for Business Journalist of the Year and previously worked at The Australian Financial Review. The conversation begins with Will’s own story in his current role, beginning in Beijing in early 2020, then leaving China and reporting from Taipei, before returning to Beijing in 2024. The main focus however is the bilateral relationship, both from the perspective of Canberra and Beijing, but also from Australian states, especially Victoria, where Dan Andrews was Premier, and Western Australia. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Will Glasgow (bio): https://www.theaustralian.com.au/author/will-glasgow Will Glasgow, “China’s warning to Australian delegation over ‘two-faced’ policy”, The Australian, 20 Sep 2025: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/beijings-warning-to-canberra-delegation-over-twofaced-policy/news-story/327ce23188ec4ed7e607e2f066ab010e Will Glasgow, “Australia wined, dined and hectored on Xi’s diplomatic conveyor belt”, The Australian, 13 Sep 2025: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/wined-dined-and-hectored-on-xis-diplomatic-conveyor-belt/news-story/84d5771d3b9c925797850baf29c1627b Will Glasgow, “Should Australian correspondents be based in Xi’s China?”, The Australian, 22 Jul 2025: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/should-australian-correspondents-be-based-in-xis-china/news-story/7b2375eb1343726f0d1a3cc5ea698e74 Geremie Barmé, “In a retro mood: The ethical dilemmas of cutting a deal with Xi Jinping’s China”, The China Project, 15 Sep 2023: https://thechinaproject.com/2023/09/15/in-a-retro-mood-the-ethical-dilemmas-of-cutting-a-deal-with-xi-jinpings-china/ Foreign Policy Live (podcast), “Adam Tooze on the End of Development”, 19 Sep 2025: https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/foreign-policy-live/adam-tooze-on-the-end-of-development/ Josh Rogin, Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the Twenty-First Century, Harper Collins (2021): https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9780358449348/chaos-under-heaven/ Tanner Greer, “Bullets and Ballots: The Legacy of Charlie Kirk”, The Scholar’s Stage, 14 Sep 2025: https://scholars-stage.org/bullets-and-ballots-the-legacy-of-charlie-kirk/ Fuschia Dunlop, Invitation to a Banquet: The Story of Chinese Food, Penguin (2024): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/invitation-to-a-banquet-9780141997216 Qiu Xiaolong, The Inspector Chen Series: https://www.qiuxiaolong.com/books_inspectorChen.php The Chinese Mayor (documentary): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w_LSNrpKPc

PM Albanese recently travelled to Solomon Islands for the Pacific Islands Forum as well as Vanuatu and PNG. The headlines focused on what didn’t happen – neither an ambitious deal with Vanuatu (Nakamal Agreement) nor a security agreement with PNG were finalised (though the PNG seems close). Today’s episode (recorded 18 Sep) considers these and other stories through the dual lenses of development policy and foreign policy with Bridi Rice, CEO of the Development Intelligence Lab, returning as guest. Development isn’t just isolated acts like building schools and hospitals but is very wide range of actions that are inevitably nested in a strategic context. How do we fit those things together? Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Examining 25 years of Australian international spending: https://www.devintelligencelab.com/budget-lines On Australian public perception of aid and development: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australians-ahead-game-aid-debate-mps-should-follow ANU DevPol Analysis on budget implications: https://devpolicy.org/burden-shedding-the-unravelling-of-the-oecd-aid-consensus-20250307/ Lydia Khalil et al on democratic erosion: https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/democratic-erosion/ The FT on AI as the new foreign aid: https://www.ft.com/content/d02eb244-8b48-48b1-bd17-f5e48677e22b Ezra Klein interviews Ben Shapiro: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAqG00FUOK8 “Leave me lonely” by Hilltop Hoods: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vak9wUPkL3Q

In Darren’s own research, topics like tariffs, industrial policy and the decaying rules-based economic order are a daily focus. On these issues and many more relating to the global economy, financial markets, economic security, and US-China geoeconomic rivalry, there is no-one whose expertise and judgment Darren respects more than that of Brad Setser, today’s guest. In a conversation recorded on 1 September, three big themes are canvassed: (i) tariffs, (ii) China, and (iii) Australia’s position in a fraying economic order. As the hosts of the “Odd Lots” podcast would say, Brad is the ‘perfect’ guest, and Darren could not be more thrilled. What is motivating Trump, and what could constrain him? Which country has negotiated the best deal? Is China’s export-driven economic model locked in? Could other countries rein in Beijing’s overcapacity? Is the rules-based economic order finished? Brad Setser is the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His expertise includes global trade and capital flows, financial vulnerability analysis, and sovereign debt restructuring. Bred served as a senior advisor to the United States Trade Representative from 2021 to 2022 and as the deputy assistant secretary for international economic analysis in the U.S. Treasury from 2011 to 2015. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Brad Setser (bio): https://www.cfr.org/expert/brad-w-setser Odd Lots (podcast), "Liz Truss on the 'Doom Loop' Engulfing the UK Economy", 29 August 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyQOEJ38kW8 Jonathon Sine, “Litigation Nation, Engineering Empire: A review of Dan Wang's new book Breakneck”, Cogitations (substack), 28 August 2025: https://www.cogitations.co/p/litigation-nation-engineering-empire Bob Davis and Lingling Wei, Superpower Showdown: How the Battle between Trump and Xi Threatens a New Cold War (Harper Collins, 2020): https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9780062953070/superpower-showdown/ Mark Kurlansky, Salt: A world history (Penguin, 2003): https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9780062953070/superpower-showdown/

Darren welcomes Richard McGregor, Senior Fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute and author of influential books "The Party" and "Xi Jinping: The Backlash," to discuss China's evolving political landscape and global position in 2025. The discussion begins with examining how Xi Jinping has consolidated power beyond what seemed possible 15 years ago, eliminating term limits and establishing one-man rule despite China's complexity. Richard describes the muted but persistent internal resistance to Xi's leadership, including purged officials and liberal critics waiting in the wings, while noting how US-China tensions help Xi maintain domestic support. The conversation moves to China's economic challenges, from the property crisis to overcapacity, and how the centralisation of power has shifted local government financing. McGregor discusses the sustainability of Xi's nationalist governance model and China's strengths in technological innovation despite structural problems. On foreign policy, they analyse Trump's return and its implications for China, Southeast Asia's complex relationship with both superpowers, and the critical Taiwan issue. The episode concludes with an assessment of Australia-China relations under the Albanese government's "stabilisation" approach, examining domestic political factors and emerging challenges around Chinese technology integration in Australia's economy. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Richard McGregor (bio): https://www.lowyinstitute.org/people/experts/bio/richard-mcgregor Richard McGregor, The Party: The Secret World of China's Communist Rulers, (Penguin, 2012, Revised Edition): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/the-party-9780141975559 Richard McGregor, Xi Jinping: The Backlash, (Penguin, 2019): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/xi-jinping-a-lowy-institute-paper-penguin-special-9781760893040 Kevin Rudd, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China (Hachette, 2022): https://www.hachette.com.au/kevin-rudd/the-avoidable-war-the-dangers-of-a-catastrophic-conflict-between-the-us-and-xi-jinpings-china Desmond Shum, Red Roulette: An Insider's Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption and Vengeance in Today's China (Simon & Schuster, 2022): https://www.simonandschuster.com.au/books/Red-Roulette/Desmond-Shum/9781398510388 Chun Han Wong, “Party of One: The Rise of Xi Jinping and China's Superpower Future (Avid Reader Press/Simon & Schuster, 2024): https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Party-of-One/Chun-Han-Wong/9781982185749 Patrick McGee, Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company (Simon & Schuster, 2025): https://www.simonandschuster.com.au/books/Apple-in-China/Patrick-McGee/9781398534377

It’s time for another tariff episode, and Darren is joined by returning guest Corbin Duncan, a journalist with The Economist (and valued Australia in the world team member) to talk through an avalanche of tariff news. Apologies for the poor quality of audio from Darren’s end. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research, co-hosting and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Security Economics (podcast), “Trump's new global tariff regime is here!”, 7 August 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-St1M0DRcU Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4244377  || (gated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2178963 Triple J, Hottest 100 of Australian Songs: https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/countdown/hottest100/1-100 Sam Tanenhaus, Buckley: The Life and the Revolution That Changed America, Penguin Random House: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/176399/buckley-by-sam-tanenhaus/ Jospeh Torigian, The Party's Interests Come First:The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping, Standford University Press, https://www.sup.org/books/history/partys-interests-come-first

The PM made a big trip to China, and the ABC’s Stephen Dziedzic accompanied him as part of the press contingent. Darren and Stephen discuss both Beijing’s and Canberra’s interests in the visit, the careful diplomacy of the week, an apparent effort from the Trump administration to use the Taiwan issue to derail the visit, and whether Australia really is in a “post stabilisation” phase in its bilateral relationship with China. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stephen Dziedzic, “Albanese bats away questions about Taiwan and US defence demands on first day of China visit”, ABC News, 13 July 2025: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-13/albanese-taiwan-us-defence-demands-china-visit/105526626 Stephen Dziedzic, “China's Premier Li Qiang calls for more economic ties with Australia in meeting with Anthony Albanese”, ABC News, 16 July 2025: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-16/anthony-albanese-meets-li-qiang-business-leaders-in-china/105536072 “What does the PM's trip to China mean for Taiwan? | Insiders On Background” ABC News, 19 July 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rP5Y0nKmxt0 PM Albanese, John Curtin Oration, 5 July 2025: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/john-curtin-oration Dwarkesh Patel, “China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber’ (podcast), 20 June 2025: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/arthur-kroeber The rest is history (podcast): https://open.spotify.com/show/7Cvsbcjhtur7nplC148TWy (Spotify) | https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-rest-is-history/id1537788786 (Apple)