The Writ Podcast

John Hogan’s Liberals are looking for their fourth consecutive victory under a third different leader on October 14, when Newfoundlander and Labrador goes to the polls. Hoping to end the Liberals’ decade-long run in power are Tony Wakeham’s Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats under Jim Dinn. What are the major issues in this provincial election and what should we keep an eye on as we enter the last stretches of this campaign?Joining me on this new episode of The Writ Podcast are Amanda Bittner, a professor in the department of political science at Memorial University, and Sarah Smellie, a journalist for the Canadian Press based out of St. John’s. In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.It’s been awhile since the last episode of The Writ Podcast — but it’ll be back! The podcast is not going to come out on a regular schedule, but new episodes will be published periodically, especially during election and leadership campaigns. Until next time, thanks for listening! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The final days of a campaign can be hectic. The Conservatives had to pull together a couple of advertisements on short notice. Every party is sending their leader on a cross-country tour and volunteers on the ground are pulling out all the stops to ID their supporters in order to get them out to the polls on election day.There’s a lot going on in this last week before election day. Ads, tour, get-out-the-vote. So, what’s the story on how parties actually get it done?Throughout this election, three veteran party organizers have been joining me on The Writ Podcast to explain the ins and outs of campaigning — and they’re back one last time!Laura D'Angelo has worked Tour Central for the Liberals in elections both federally and provincially, and was director of campaign operations for the Liberals in 2019. She is the vice-president, national strategy and public affairs at Enterprise Canada.Melanie Paradis was director of communications for past Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole and is president of Texture Communications.Cheryl Oates was the executive director of communications and planning for former Alberta premier Rachel Notley. She’s principal at GT Executive Advisors and is the co-host of The Discourse podcast.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The tension rises and the drama builds. The results have been trickling in all night — first it was too early to call, then it was too close to call. But, finally, the networks are ready. The anchor cuts off whoever is speaking and says “we’re ready to make a projection.”There’s a brief pause as the graphics come on the screen and the music pipes in. It took a long time, but the network is now ready to project a government. Will it be majority or minority, Liberal or Conservative (or something else)? It’s the most dramatic moment of every election night special. But a lot of work goes into making that call. Just how is it done?In this episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by Meg Banks, senior producer, CBC News Elections. I’ve worked with her on many elections in the past and I’m really pleased she could join me to explain how the decision desk makes its calls. (This is an extra episode of the podcast — I’ll be back with another episode tomorrow!) In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

We’re entering a critical phase of this election campaign as the leaders face-off in two debates and advance voting begins this weekend. The polls suggest the margin could be tightening somewhat between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. Could the debate shake things up?On this episode of The Writ Podcast, the Pollster Panel is back to survey the current landscape, discuss the reliability of the polls and what they may or may not be missing, and how public opinion research will be used by all the political parties in this final stretch of the campaign.Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Parties proudly present their slate of candidates in every election shortly before dumping some of them. It’s an inevitable part of every campaign — rejecting candidates who don’t meet a party’s vetting standards and ejecting candidates when rival parties have dug up the dirt on them.So, what’s the process behind candidate vetting? And how do parties go about compiling, and then using, opposition research?Plus, Pierre Poilievre has been putting on some massive rallies. How are these organized — and are they worth the effort?Throughout this election, three veteran party organizers are joining me on The Writ Podcast to explain the ins and outs of campaigning.Laura D'Angelo has worked Tour Central for the Liberals in elections both federally and provincially, and was director of campaign operations for the Liberals in 2019. She is the vice-president, national strategy and public affairs at Enterprise Canada.Melanie Paradis was director of communications for past Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole and is president of Texture Communications.Cheryl Oates was the executive director of communications and planning for former Alberta premier Rachel Notley. She’s principal at GT Executive Advisors and is the co-host of The Discourse podcast.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

We’re deep into the second week of this election campaign and it appears to be Mark Carney’s to lose. But just how solid is the support for the Liberals, and what can Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives do to get back into the race?This week on The Writ Podcast, I’m joined ahead by the Pollster Panel to break it all down.Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Mark Carney kicked off Canada’s election campaign on Sunday and already parties are discovering that their best laid plans can go awry very quickly. So, what goes on behind the scenes when parties draw up their strategies for a campaign and what happens when they have to react to the unexpected?Throughout this election, I’ll be joined periodically by three veteran party organizers to explain the ins and outs of campaigning — and help make some sense of just what is happening out on the hustings.Vandana Kattar was the director of operations, outreach and planning for former prime minister Justin Trudeau and was one of the co-hosts of the Race to Replace podcast during the past Liberal leadership contest.Melanie Paradis was director of communications for past Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole and is president of Texture Communications.Cheryl Oates was the executive director of communications and planning for former Alberta premier Rachel Notley. She’s principal at GT Executive Advisors and is the co-host of The Discourse podcast.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

We’re apparently only days away from an election call and the polls suggest that Mark Carney’s Liberals have taken the pole position ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. So, what should we make of these emerging trends and how should they inform each party’s strategy heading into this campaign?Plus, just how will parties go about polling the electorate over the next six or so weeks?This week on The Writ Podcast, I’m joined ahead by the Pollster Panel to break it all down.Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Canada’s political environment appears to be in flux, as the threats of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, the resignation of Justin Trudeau and the resulting Liberal leadership race have jostled what had been a steady trendline in the polls. What to make of the diverging numbers and how do parties have to adjust their strategy as everything shifts beneath their feet?Plus, we also discuss the writ drop in Ontario. Has Doug Ford made the right call in calling an early election, or has he taken a big risk?Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns. Dan is also hosting the Race to Replace limited podcast series on the Liberal leadership contest.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Chrystia Freeland’s resignation as finance minister on Monday has thrown Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government into chaos. What should we make of this unpredictable week in Canadian politics, and where do Trudeau and the Liberals go from here?There’s a lot to unpack, and this week I’m joined by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and The Globe and Mail’s Stephanie Levitz to try to make some sense of it.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:* Apple Podcasts* Spotify* Overcast* Pocket Casts* Podcast Addict* YouTube Music* RSS Feed This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Four new polls put the Liberals and New Democrats within zero to two points of each other — and behind the Conservatives by margins of 19 to 23 points. We delve into the numbers and what they mean for each of the parties. Has Justin Trudeau’s promised GST holiday helped or hurt his chances?We also discuss provincial polls coming out of Ontario and Quebec, where two incumbent premiers (Doug Ford and François Legault) face two very different futures.Note to listeners: I suggest transitioning over to the dedicated podcast feed for The Numbers, as in the new year I intend to reserve this feed for episodes of The Writ Podcast. You can follow The Numbers on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, PodcastAddict or wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes will still be sent out via email to subscribers of The Writ, but it will be embedded in the email, rather than sent to the podcast feed.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

A new poll, employing a new methodology, has the Conservatives at their highest and the Liberals at their lowest levels of support in years — maybe even a decade. What to make of it?On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we also break down Tim Houston’s PC landslide in the Nova Scotia election and take a look at some recent polls out of Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island.Note to listeners: I suggest transitioning over to the dedicated podcast feed for The Numbers, as in the new year I intend to reserve this feed for episodes of The Writ Podcast. You can follow The Numbers on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, PodcastAddict or wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes will still be sent out via email to subscribers of The Writ, but it will be embedded in the email, rather than sent to the podcast feed.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

A new poll by Abacus Data puts the Liberals and NDP neck-and-neck in national voting intentions, well behind the Conservatives. But this isn’t the first time it’s happened. Is it a blip or another worrying sign for Justin Trudeau?On this episode of The Numbers, we take a look at the federal polling landscape. We then discuss some new numbers out of Quebec before taking a deep-dive into the Nova Scotia provincial election. Could anything put a big win by Tim Houston’s PCs in doubt, and who has the inside track on forming the official opposition?Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The Liberals face a tough test — maybe their toughest test yet — in an upcoming byelection in the B.C. Lower Mainland. Will Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose their third contest in a row?We also take a look at the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP. Then, we discuss new provincial polling numbers ahead of Nova Scotia’s election and Ontario’s apparently upcoming election. Finally, we chat about new polling from Quebec that continues to show trouble for Premier François Legault.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Pollsters under-estimated Donald Trump’s support in his first two presidential campaigns. Did they do it a third time this year? We take a look at how the polls performed south of the border — and what the results could mean for politics on this side of it.We also dissect some of the latest federal polling and fundraising numbers, plus we take a look at where things stand in the early days of the Nova Scotia provincial election campaign. Then, we close with a U.S.-themed Quiz!Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Incumbents in all three provinces that voted in October took their licks, but David Eby in British Columbia and Scott Moe in Saskatchewan managed to secure re-election. That wasn’t the case for Blaine Higgs in New Brunswick, who lost not only the premier’s chair but his own seat.What happened in these three provincial campaigns — and what lessons might be drawn out of them as Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh prepare for the upcoming federal election?The Pollster Panel is back on The Writ Podcast to provide their perspectives.Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.THE NUMBERS: The podcast is now available for everyone every week, so if you missed this week’s episode, in which we dive into the Saskatchewan election results as well as the latest federal polls, you can watch it on YouTube here or find it in your favourite podcasting app. If you’d like to become a member of the Patreon and listen to the weekly mailbag episode, as well as a special episode every month, you can join the Patreon here.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Numbers, we parse through the surprising results of the British Columbia and New Brunswick provincial elections. What’s next for the B.C. Conservatives, what do we make of the Liberals’ shellacking of the PCs out east and how did the polls do?We also discuss the mini-revolt within the Liberal caucus and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau’s leadership. There’s also a new poll giving the Saskatchewan NDP the lead ahead of Monday’s vote, and another poll showing Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs on cruise control. Does it mean an early election?Note to listeners: Public episodes of The Numbers will now be published every week! The Writ Podcast isn’t going away, but its publishing schedule will be irregular. You can expect one or two new episodes of The Writ Podcast every month, featuring some of my regular panelists and focusing on special events, like elections and leadership contests. When there isn’t a new episode of The Writ Podcast, you’ll get the latest episode of The Numbers right here in your feed and/or inbox.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Justin Trudeau faces a leadership challenge from within his own caucus — will it be the beginning of the end for him? Plus, there are just days to go in the election campaigns in British Columbia and New Brunswick. We break down the latest polls, plus some new numbers out of Saskatchewan, which is also hurtling toward its own decision day.We then play a Provincial Election Draft and answer questions from the listener mailbag about the machinations in Ottawa.Apologies for the poor audio from me during the first half of this episode.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get extended mailbag segments and bonus episodes, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.As suggested in the podcast, if you’d like to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app, follow the instructions after clicking on this link.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!Election livestreams on Saturday and Monday can be found here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

There are less than two weeks to go in the B.C. and New Brunswick provincial elections, while Saskatchewan’s campaign officially got underway. We’ll know who has won these three contests by the end of the month, but for now all three might be too close to call.Back to provide some updates from the campaign trails on this episode of The Writ Podcast (and a day early!) are Richard Zussman, Global News legislative reporter in B.C., Jacques Poitras, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick, and Adam Hunter, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Saskatchewan.THE NUMBERS: This week’s members-only episode of The Numbers will be available later on Thursday here. We’ll delve more deeply into some of the polling numbers coming out of British Columbia, along with all the latest in provincial and federal politics from across the country.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Numbers, we discuss a couple of new polls that put the Conservatives first, the NDP second and the Liberals in third. Is this the start of a new trend? We also chat about the state of the race in British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives have pushed ahead David Eby's NDP, and a new poll out of Quebec that shows continued trouble for Premier François Legault.In the mailbag, we answer questions about the potential for prorogation and just how low the Liberals' floor could go. Finally, the tables are turned for a Mini Quiz for Philippe.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe