War in Space

US Space Command was re-established in 2019, with responsibility for all military operations in outer space. But how much adversarial competition are we actually seeing in this domain? General Stephen Whiting, Commander of US Space Command, discusses the realities of space warfare, how multi-domain integration of military capabilities involves the space domain, and how we can work better with allies to ensure resilient space architectures. This episode was recorded in August 2024.

The US is the undisputed predominant space power. But for how long? While Western private companies such as Space X are entering and often dominating the space sector, China's space power is also increasing, with private space launch enterprises such as that of Galactic Energy. Todd Harrison, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, joins the podcast to discuss what the US must do now to stay ahead of the game. How should it interact with the private sector and where its priorities lie? After all, an advantage in technology may prove temporary if innovation does not follow in other areas.

How does space power fit into German defence thinking, and has this changed since German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for a 'Zeitenwende' in 2022? When Chancellor Scholz addressed the nation shortly after the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a fundamental reconfiguring of Germany's defence policy and budget was promised. The word Zeitenwende ('turning point') usually refers to the shift from one era to another, but two years on from his speech, much remains business-as-usual. Joining us to discuss German defence in the space domain is Antje Nötzold, Assistant Professor at Chemnitz University of Technology and Associate Fellow at the Centre for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies at the University of Bonn. We analyse the country's sovereign capabilities and ambitions for space power.

We hear about the dangers of space debris all the time – the high velocities with which discarded or disused manmade objects travel around the Earth and the threat that high-speed impacts, even of small debris pieces, pose to satellites. Technologies are currently being developed to mitigate this, including by the company Astroscale. Alex Godfrey, Business Development Manager at Astroscale, talks to us about the technical challenges of debris mitigation, as well as future missions and trends. We also discuss the inherent dual-use nature of these technologies and how debris mitigation can be used for nefarious purposes. The question is whether space security and future sustainability measures are doomed to always be at odds – can we keep space free of debris and sleep soundly at night, knowing that robotic arms are orbiting our satellites?

There is no pan-European approach to space. Instead, there is a diverse set of European actors, agencies and infrastructures that are making a mark on the final frontier. Who exactly is involved in the various European space endeavours and what are their projects? Are the constellations of Copernicus and Galileo the limit of ambition or will we see further projects and a tie into NATO? Mathieu Bataille, Research Fellow and Lead on Security and Defence at the European Space Policy Institute, joins us to discuss these questions and more.

Keeping track of satellites requires space situational awareness (SSA). But how does one acquire this information, and how subjective is the data that we receive? Sean Goldsborough, Business Leader at Raytheon NORSS, talks to us about the art of satellite tracking. We discuss the difference between SSA and space domain awareness (there is a distinction!), how the technology underlies military applications, and how the data available could potentially be used for nefarious purposes – for example, by disguising the real nature of objects in space.

Space launches in 2024 are routine events – new satellites enter orbit on a weekly basis, and the industry is changing fast. In this episode, we examine the increasing commercialisation of space and its implications, including how access to (relatively inexpensive) launch facilities has changed the satellite market, and how states and commercial companies are now working together to meet new demands. Dr Michelle Parker, Vice President, Space Mission Systems at Boeing Defense, Space & Security, joins us to discuss a legacy business that has adapted to new trends, and to survey the landscape of up-and-coming space technologies.

After three years of setting up and running UK Space Command, Air Vice Marshal Paul Godfrey joins us to discuss the lessons learned and explains why setting up the Command felt a bit like running a start-up. The discussion covers the road to integration, partnerships and why training with terrestrial alternatives to space services is important for the whole of the armed forces. Lastly, we discuss space's PR problem and how this could be solved in the future. Be part of the solution – listen in to find out more!

Does a state's power on Earth translates into influence in orbit – and vice versa? Dr Jana Robinson, Managing Director of the Prague Security Studies Institute, presents her research on what she calls the 'ground-based space race', where authoritarian states fund parts of the space economy in third countries to gain influence and shape their voting decisions. This is especially important as norms and values are still being discussed within the UN. We discuss these economic and financial threats and how they further shape values and norms in space. Finally, we talk about the soft power element of space: what does the future for international space cooperation hold given that the International Space Stationis being decommissioned after 2030?

Multilateral efforts to prevent an arms race in outer space have been going on for decades. The most recent efforts include a UN resolution that intended to solve existing gridlocks by getting states to discuss what responsible behaviours in space look like. The problem of dual use – using space assets for military purposes or as a weapon – will continue to make verification of the nature of assets difficult. However, responsible behaviours that promote transparency on how these assets are used can help reduce the risk of miscalculation in space. The UN resolution on responsible behaviours was put forward by the UK in 2020 and discussed in the forum of Open-Ended Working Groups (OEWG) until 2023. Dr Jessica West, Senior Researcher at the Canadian peace research institute Project Ploughshares, shares observations from the discussions at the OEWG and her assessment of what future efforts might look like. Tune in to find out why UN diplomats are the unsung heroes of peace and security, and what Geneva's food prices have to do with it all!

There is a persistent perception that space is a lawless place. Professor Steven Freeland, Emeritus Professor of International Law at Western Sydney University and Professorial Fellow at Bond University, joins us to explain why that is not the case. We discuss the current multilateral rules that govern orbits, as well as where additions may come in in the future, why they might be necessary and what obstacles are currently preventing us from reaching multilateral consensus. As well as this, we talk about the involvement of commercial actors in space and what benefit national space laws bring.

Orbits are getting busier, frequencies are taken up, collisions are becoming likelier and the resulting space debris is endangering satellites ... are we really running out of space in space? John Janka, Chief Officer, Global Government Affairs and Regulatory at Viasat, discusses with us the various factors that make up space sustainability, including frequencies, physical space and effects on the atmosphere. We discuss what measures can be taken to avoid an overcrowding of the orbits and how methods such as fragmentation analysis can help predict the impact of a potential collision.

How do concepts of warfare apply to space? Is there such a thing as irregular warfare, asymmetric tactics or hybrid warfare in space? Dr John 'Patsy' Klein, Senior Fellow and Strategist at Falcon Research, Inc. and Adjunct Professor at the George Washington University Space Policy Institute and Georgetown University's Strategic Studies Programme, helps us unravel these terms, discussing how they apply to space and why strategies on war do not need to be rewritten for the 'final frontier'.

The Skynet Satellite Communications Programme is the UK's biggest space project; having started in the 1960s, it is currently in its sixth generation. Dr Richard Davis, Programme Director of Skynet 6 at UK Strategic Command, joins us to discuss what makes the current generation different from its predecessors, what the future of the programme may look like, and the organisational structures it falls under.

Space-enabled communications are vital to modern military operations. But it's not just the military that benefits from satellite communications; it's also governments, doctors and other emergency first responders. Rory Welch, Head of Global Government at IntelSat, discusses the various applications of satellite communications, as well as how the service is already woven into Multi-Domain Integration. We also consider the potential threats to satellite communications systems and ask what consequences have already resulted from the war in Ukraine.

Are we back to counting tanks and trenches? Do the air and space domains matter in the context of the war in Ukraine? Air Marshal Johnny Stringer, Deputy Commander of NATO's Allied Air Command at Ramstein Air Base, explains why air superiority matters and why access to space and the capabilities it enables is so important. We discuss the lessons learnt from this war for peer-on-peer air and space operations, including the involvement of commercially available capabilities.

Compared to the likes of the US, Russia and China, India's place among the preeminent space powers is often forgotten, despite its rich history in the domain dating back to the 1950s. Dr Namrata Goswami, Professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University, shares with us her research into India's space diplomacy, its capabilities and its new space policy, in which commercialisation plays a key role. We also discuss planned defence space capabilities and India's stance on the future utilisation of space resources.

Russia was the first nation to enter space with satellite 'Sputnik' in 1957. Now, however, the Russian space industry seems to struggle to even maintain its current constellations, let alone contribute to future growth. Further, Russian troops do not seem adequately trained to integrate with space capabilities. Anna Maria Wårlind from the Swedish Defence Research Agency shares with us insights from her open source report on Russian space capabilities. We discuss the state of Russia's PNT, ISR and SATCOM capabilities and to what extent these have already been used during the invasion of Ukraine.

Tim Marshall, author of the Prisoners of Geography series, joins us to discuss the geopolitics of space – 'astropolitics'. But what is astropolitics exactly? And in the geography of space, what are the most contested areas? Marshall talks to us about why the South Pole of the Moon could be of future economic importance, and why commercial entities are now major players in this area.

Is the UK taking the space threat seriously? How does one protect space assets from threats and balance reliance on commercial providers with the 'price point' and broader financial burdens inherent in sovereign infrastructures? Nik Smith, Regional Director UK & Europe at Lockheed Martin Space, talks to us about space threats, lessons from Ukraine, and why the government delivering on space is important for both the public and industry.