Security Dilemma

In this special Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay discuss the 1964 Nobel Peace Prize recipient's most famous foreign policy speech, "Beyond Vietnam: A Time to Break Silence" (1967), in which Dr. King explains why he must speak out against the Vietnam War and why America needs a "revolution of values" to defeat the three interconnected perils of racism, militarism, and poverty. Listeners can read (https://www2.hawaii.edu/~freeman/courses/phil100/17.%20MLK%20Beyond%20Vietnam.pdf) and listen (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJhgXKGldUk) to the full speech online.Additionally, the Society’s ⁠Strategic Leaders Fellowship⁠ is currently accepting applications through January 19th.  In this program for mid-career foreign policy professionals, Strategic Leaders Fellows take part in private salon dinners with experts discussing topics like grand strategy, nuclear weapons, power projection, and European security, and participate in a day-long crisis simulation. The fellowship’s culmination is a trip to France and Belgium for an in-depth study of the First World War – its origins, conduct, and termination, and a closer look at the United States in the war. It’s a terrific, one of a kind program for any mid-career personnel interested in deepening their knowledge in grand strategy while connecting with likeminded professional peers. Listener Questions: We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming recordings include: AMA- John Gay and A.J. ManuzziJQAS Discusses the Marcellus PapersSanctions with Ashleigh Subramanian-MontgomeryWhat Realism’s Critics Get Wrong with Patrick Porter

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay were joined again by Chris Shell, a Fellow at the American Statecraft Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Dr. Shell researches how American communities view foreign policy issues, as well as issues related to Latin America and the Caribbean. He is also an alum of the Society’s Strategic Leaders Fellowship, which is currently accepting applications through January 19th.  In this program for mid-career foreign policy professionals, Strategic Leaders Fellows take part in private salon dinners with experts discussing topics like grand strategy, nuclear weapons, power projection, and European security, and participate in a day-long crisis simulation. The fellowship’s culmination is a trip to France and Belgium for an in-depth study of the First World War – its origins, conduct, and termination, and a closer look at the United States in the war. It’s a terrific, one of a kind program for any mid-career personnel interested in deepening their knowledge in grand strategy while connecting with likeminded professional peers. Again, the deadline is January 19. For today’s business, In this episode, we discussed U.S. Venezuela policy in light of the Trump Administration’s capture of Nicolas Maduro and the reaction in the Caribbean.Listener Questions: We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming recordings include: Special: Martin Luther King Jr's "Beyond Vietnam"AMA- John Gay and A.J. ManuzziJQAS Discusses the Marcellus PapersSanctions with Ashleigh Subramanian-MontgomeryWhat Realism’s Critics Get Wrong with Patrick Porter

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay offered their reactions to the Trump Administration's new 2025 National Security Strategy (https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf). In this conversation, A.J. and John discussed the strategy's recommendations as they relate to (or conflict with) realism and restraint, whether this is still a primacist strategy, and how the strategy compares and contrasts with prior administrations' strategy documents.Listener Questions: We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming recordings include: AMA- John Gay and A.J. ManuzziJQAS Discusses the Marcellus PapersWhat Realism's Critics Get Wrong with Patrick Porter

In this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay spoke with Sahar Khan, an independent national security analyst who focuses on nonproliferation, strategic stability, counterterrorism, and crisis management in Southern Asia. Previously, Dr. Khan was the Deputy Director and Senior Fellow of South Asia at the Stimson Center, a Research Fellow in the Defense and Foreign Policy Department at the Cato Institute, and Managing Editor of Inkstick Media. Our conversation discussed regional dynamics and U.S. interests in South Asia, as well as South Asian nuclear programs.Listener Questions: We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming recordings include: Thinking About the National Security StrategyAMA- John Gay and A.J. ManuzziJQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers

In this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay spoke with Dr. Sumantra Maitra about what an "America First" nuclear strategy might look like. Dr. Maitra is the Director of Research and Outreach at the American Ideas Institute and a Senior Fellow at the Center for Renewing America. He is also the author of The Sources of Russian Aggression. You can check out his article on the contours of an "America First" nuclear strategy here: https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2025/11/exploring-the-contours-of-an-america-first-nuclear-strategy/.Listener Questions: We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming recordings include: AMA- John Gay and A.J. ManuzziJQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers

In this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay spoke with Mariya Grinberg about her new book Trade in War: Economic Cooperation Across Enemy Lines (https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501782442/trade-in-war/), why states may trade with their adversaries during wartime, and the relationship between economic interdependence and conflict. Dr Grinberg is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at MIT. Her primary research examines why states trade with their enemies, investigating the product level and temporal variation in wartime commercial policies of states vis-a-vis enemy belligerents. Her broader research interests center on the question of how time and uncertainty shape the strategic decisions of states, focusing on order formation, military planning, and questions of state sovereignty.Listener Questions: We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming recordings include: Nuclear Testing and South Asia with Sahar KhanAMA- John Gay and A.J. ManuzziJQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers

In this week's edition of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay spoke with William Hartung and Ben Freeman of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft about their new book The Trillion Dollar War Machine: How Runaway Military Spending Drives America into Foreign Wars and Bankrupts Us at Home. You can buy the book here: https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-War-Machine-Bankrupts/dp/1645030636Listener Questions: We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming recordings include: AMA- John Gay and A.J. ManuzziJQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers

On this special Armistice Day/Veterans Day episode of Security Dilemma, the Society's John Gay, Scott McCann, and Julie Thompson-Gomez discussed their experience as part of the Society's Strategic Leaders Fellowship study trip to World War I sites in France, as well as what lessons the First World War has for contemporary statecraft. Listeners can learn more about the Strategic Leaders Fellowship and apply for the program when the application comes out later this year here: https://jqas.org/the-strategic-leaders-fellowship/. Listener Questions: We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming recordings include: AMA- John Gay and A.J. ManuzziJQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay spoke with Lyle Goldstein of Defense Priorities and the Watson Institute at Brown University about his recent paper series "Target Taiwan," which argues that a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan could be costlier and less winnable for the United States than conventional wisdom assesses. 1. Prospects for a Chinese Invasion- https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/target-taiwan-prospects-for-a-chinese-invasion/2. Challenges for a U.S. Intervention- https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/target-taiwan-challenges-for-a-us-intervention/3. Limits of Allied Support- https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/target-taiwan-limits-of-allied-support/4. One China and Cross-Strait Stability- https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/target-taiwan-one-china-and-cross-strait-stability/Listener Questions: We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠⁠here, or at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit⁠⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming recordings include: What Is an America First Nuclear Strategy? with Sumantra MaitraAMA- John Gay and A.J. ManuzziJQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay spoke with Emma Ashford, a Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center's Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy program, about her new book First Among Equals: U.S. Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World. In this episode, we discussed the new book and why realism is necessary in an era of multipolarity.LISTENER QUESTIONS: We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠⁠here⁠⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming episodes include: Taiwan: A Military Analysis with Lyle GoldsteinThe Trillion Dollar War Machine: How Runaway Military Spending Drives America into Foreign Wars and Bankrupts Us at Home with Ben Freeman and William HartungDoes Economic Interdependence Prevent War? with Mariya GrinbergAMA- John Gay and A.J. ManuzziJQAS Discusses the Marcellus Papers

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and Adam Abdel-Qader spoke with Miranda Priebe, the Director of the Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy at RAND. Dr. Priebe's work has focused on grand strategy, the future of the international order, and the effects of U.S. forward presence. In this episode, we discussed the implications of a recent report from her team anticipating allies' responses to limited U.S. retrenchment.LISTENER QUESTIONS: We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠here⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming episodes include: AMA with A.J. and John and the Pentagon budget with the Quincy Institute's Ben Freeman and William Hartung. Check out the report here: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA739-8.htmlListener Question Submission Form: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Gay conducts a full reading of George Washington's Farewell Address, which raised concerns that listeners may find resonate today about foreign influence of U.S. foreign policy, alliance entrapment, and more. The reading is followed by a discussion with co-host A.J. Manuzzi about whether Washington's insights remain valuable in the 21st century. You can follow along and read the full speech for yourself here.LISTENER QUESTIONS: We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests ⁠here⁠. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming episodes include: AMA with A.J. and John, U.S. alliances and retrenchment with the RAND Corporation's Miranda Priebe, and the Pentagon budget with the Quincy Institute's Ben Freeman and William Hartung.

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay spoke with Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at the federally funded nonprofit research and analysis organization CNA. Decker specializes in open-source analysis of foreign nuclear postures, as well as ballistic and cruise missile forces in the Middle East and Asia. In this episode we discussed the state of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs in the aftermath of the Twelve-Day War.LISTENER QUESTIONS: We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests here. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming episodes include: AMA with A.J. and John, a reading and discussion of George Washington's Farewell Address, U.S. alliances and retrenchment with the RAND Corporation's Miranda Priebe, and the Pentagon budget with the Quincy Institute's Ben Freeman and William Hartung. LISTENER SURVEY: Please answer our two-question survey of Security Dilemma listeners. Respondents who provide their email address will be entered into a drawing. The first prize is a signed copy of John Mearsheimer's The Tragedy of Great Power Politics; there are also digital copies of our recent reading group book, Paul R. Pillar's Why America Misunderstands the World. Respond to the survey ⁠⁠here⁠⁠.

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi spoke with John Byrnes, the Strategic Director of Concerned Veterans for America to discuss how his experiences being at Ground Zero on 9/11 and serving in America's post-9/11 wars shifted his perspective on U.S. foreign policy to a belief in realism and restraint. Mr. Byrnes joined the Marine Corps in 1991 out of high school and served four years, deployed to Somalia in 1993. He joined the New York National Guard, serving at Ground Zero after the September 11th terrorist attacks and was deployed to both Iraq and Afghanistan before retiring from the National Guard in 2018.He also has a new article out in The American Conservative, in which he discusses his foreign policy evolution and the lessons policymakers should draw from our post-9/11 wars.LISTENER SURVEY: Please answer our two-question survey of Security Dilemma listeners. Respondents who provide their email address will be entered into a drawing. The first prize is a signed copy of John Mearsheimer's The Tragedy of Great Power Politics; there are also digital copies of our recent reading group book, Paul R. Pillar's Why America Misunderstands the World. Respond to the survey ⁠⁠here⁠⁠.

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay spoke with Jonathan Guyer of the Institute for Global Affairs at Eurasia Group. Jonathan is the Program Director of IGA's flagship Independent America program, which is focused on interrogating the conventional wisdom of US foreign policy and informing the public about America’s changing role in the world. He was previously a senior foreign policy writer at Vox and managing editor of The American Prospect. Our conversation today discussed U.S. Middle East policy, the rise of Silicon Valley-based defense firms, and the "revolving door" between industry and government.LISTENER SURVEY: Please answer our two-question survey of Security Dilemma listeners. Respondents who provide their email address will be entered into a drawing. The first prize is a signed copy of John Mearsheimer's The Tragedy of Great Power Politics; there are also digital copies of our recent reading group book, Paul R. Pillar's Why America Misunderstands the World. Respond to the survey ⁠here⁠.

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi spoke with Ted Jones, the Senior Director for National Security and International Programs at the Nuclear Energy Institute. An expert on international energy markets and nuclear trade policy, he leads initiatives related to nuclear energy exports. In addition to his work on nuclear trade policy and promotion, Mr. Jones serves as liaison to stakeholders in the nuclear policy and national security communities. Mr. Jones previously served as policy director of the U.S.-India Business Council at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. During his tenure there, he led a successful campaign to change U.S. law and international rules to admit India to the global commercial nuclear trade. In this episode, we discussed the global nuclear supply chain, energy security, and careers with industry trade groups. LISTENER SURVEY: Please answer our two-question survey of Security Dilemma listeners. Respondents who provide their email address will be entered into a drawing. The first prize is a signed copy of John Mearsheimer's The Tragedy of Great Power Politics; there are also digital copies of our recent reading group book, Paul R. Pillar's Why America Misunderstands the World. Respond to the survey here.

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi spoke with Madison Schramm about why liberal democracies often initiate wars against dictatorships.Dr. Schramm is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto and a Nonresident Senior Fellow with the Stimson Center’s Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program. Her research focuses on international security, the domestic politics of foreign policy, political psychology, and gender and foreign policy. She was previously an Assistant Professor at the U.S. Army War College and is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations. In this episode, we discussed her book Why Democracies Fight Dictators, whether there is global competition between democracies and autocratic states, and threat inflation.

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Gay conducts a full reading of John Quincy Adams' July 4, 1821 "Monsters to Destroy" speech (which warned the United States against overreach abroad in the name of liberty), followed by a discussion with co-host A.J. Manuzzi about the enduring relevance of Adams' words for U.S. statecraft. You can read the full speech for yourself here.

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi spoke with Dan Caldwell and Jennifer Kavanagh about their recent Defense Priorities explainer on U.S. defense posture under a grand strategy of restraint. Dan Caldwell is a former senior adviser to the Secretary of Defense and worked on the Trump 2024 transition team. He is a veteran of the Marines and a former Capitol Hill staffer. Jennifer is a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities. She previously was a senior fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where she directed RAND’s Army Strategy program for three years. Kavanagh’s research focuses on U.S. military strategy, force structure and defense budgeting, the defense industrial base, and U.S. military interventions.In this conversation, we discussed how the United States can realign its defense posture with realist core national interests and objectives, and what obstacles such a realignment would face. You can read their full paper here: https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/aligning-global-military-posture-with-us-interests/.

On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and Michelle Newby spoke with Dr. Lindsey O'Rourke, an Associate Professor of Political Science at Boston College and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. She’s the author of Covert Regime Change: America’s Secret Cold War, which catalogues and analyses Cold War-era U.S. regime change efforts.We discussed why American regime change efforts are often futile, take a closer look at spheres of influence as a fact of life, and examined how an American regime change war in Iran would transpire, and why it would likely fail to achieve American interests.