The Pod of Gold

Recorded live at the Australian Gold Conference, Gold rallies but Managed Money isn't bullish, yet there's plenty of upside ahead for the yellow metal. Don't be too bearish on China just yet, the trade looks crowded and could surprise you. Plus Bank of Japan's yield curve control and how much lower will the Aussie dollar fall? PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Nick Frappell: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/nick_frappell⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Jordan Eliseo: ⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jordaneliseo⁠⁠ Shae Russell: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/shaearussell⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. (0:50) – US dollar rolls off (2:58) – Managed money isn’t bullish on the yellow metal (4:14) – Multiple upside targets remain for gold (7:12) – Journalist coverage suggest rate cuts are coming… (8:37) - …but you should believe Powell (9:29) - Betting against China could be a crowded trade (13:40) – Consumption is trending down and it’s been happening for a long time (17:57) – Chinese Communist Party likely to opt for micro support over the ‘big bazooka’ of stimulus (22:38) – Aussie dollar is down, but support looks reasonable

In this episode we look at the ‘powerful macro themes and powerful macro risks’ providing support for gold, how US loan officers are tightening lending conditions in spite of some quantitative easing attempts and why gold could reach US$2,500. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: ⁠⁠https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast⁠⁠ Apple Podcasts: ⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488⁠⁠ Spotify: ⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb⁠⁠ RSS: ⁠⁠https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss⁠⁠ Nick Frappell: ⁠⁠https://twitter.com/nick_frappell⁠⁠ Shae Russell: ⁠⁠https://twitter.com/shaearussell⁠ OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. · (1:18) – Key drivers supporting spot gold. · (2:27) – Why central banks increased their gold positions in 2022. · (6:07) – Fed offers a form of QE… · (9:30) – …which butts up against QT as senior loan officers tighten lending conditions. · (11:26) – Applying Taylor Rule: rates not as tight as the market thinks. · (15:32) – US economy still runs a little hot. · (17:44) – Financial system more leveraged than the past, impacting rate increases. · (18:29) – The US debt ceiling could be a ‘grey swan’ event. · (21:35) – An unresolved debt ceiling is ‘not impossible, but unthinkable’. · (23:26) – Bank of Japan yield curve control. · (27:22) – Nick overtly bullish on gold.

In this episode we look at what is keeping gold at US$2,000 per ounce and how big bar demand is increasing despite the elevated price. We discuss managed money’s pivot into gold, how silver’s is riding both gold and copper’s coattails, and why the Fed’s higher for longer rate narrative is about to end. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: ⁠https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast⁠ Apple Podcasts: ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488⁠ Spotify: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb⁠ RSS: ⁠https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss⁠ Nick Frappell: ⁠https://twitter.com/nick_frappell⁠ Shae Russell: ⁠https://twitter.com/shaearussell OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. (1:00) – Gold has moved above past resistance (5:48) – Managed Money pivots into gold  (8:53) – Asian physical demand softens while gold is elevated (10:46) – A degree of consolidation within the rising gold trend  (14:03) – Understanding Powell’s preferred measure T-Bill metric (19:43) – Futures market indicates higher terminal rate for the Aussie dollar (23:21) – Aussie dollar to face resistance around 69 US cents  (27:50) – Silver rides gold coattails higher (34:10) – Copper’s strength also supports silver (36:55) – Poll: Will gold mount a successful challenge to the 'double top' level?

In this episode we analyse why gold has fallen back from its peak despite recent US banks collapsing, we look at the reasons behind the Fed rate hike and why banks will be forced to raise rates, leading to more pressure this tightening cycle. Time Stamps     1:00 – The gold trade isn’t crowded despite gold’s run 3:55 – Traders didn’t want to be short gold with the swirl of news flow    5:25 – Au lost momentum at US$2,000, support remains above US$1,900 10:45 – Litigation in the pipeline          12:10 – Substantial short covering in silver 15:55 – The Fed couldn’t increase rates by 0.50%…but they couldn’t do nothing either 25:55 – Tightening isn’t just being driven by the Fed 26:30 – International outlook weighs on Aussie dollar 29:22 – Gold and the global economy over 2023

In today’s episode we look at the upcoming FOMC in March and discuss the mismatch between narrative and the futures market when it comes to what the Fed will do next. Nick dissects China’s recent National Party Congress, what the GDP expectations China has put forward mean and the hints which suggest China is looking to internalise consumption. Plus, as gold continues to hug the US$1,850s level, Nick casts his technical lens over the price targets that matter right now and why the US$1,800 level looks supportive. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. (1:21) – Gold rally lost steam at a key Fibonacci level (4:58) – Targets to watch for with gold in the US$1,800 range (7.20) – Silver sees an increase in shorts (10:05) – Silver reacts to China’s economic reopening (12:36) – The Fed are facing a two-speed economy (14:50) – Will “higher for longer” be relevant after this week’s data dump? (19:06) – Breaking down China’s National Party Congress (21:54) – The Aussie dollar’s down move in an aggressive hiking cycle (25:21) – Key takeaways Link to last episode "What lies above US$2,075 for gold?"  https://open.spotify.com/episode/5htibKWKC3dOwIBMvA60dg

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss why central banks increased their gold position in 2022, why the Federal Reserve Bank may hike a few more times and a key multiyear gold price target to watch. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. (0:00) - Intro (1:08) – Managed money positing for gold. (4:34) – Is silver giving us an industrial take or a precious metals take on the world? (8:50) – Higher rates aren’t bad for gold in isolation. (14:30) – Can there be an orderly exit from yield curve control? (15:31) – Markets still guessing the Fed’s terminal rate. (19:00) ­– Central bank policy is disconnected from Taylor Rule. (21:02) – Is a 50-basis point increase from the Fed on the cards? (22:13) – Central banks increasing their gold position is about portfolio rebalancing, not de-dollarization. (26:51) – Key price target for gold above US$2,075 (31:44) – Silver sits on support right now.

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how gold is treading water ahead of the July Federal Open Market Committee, how much higher can the US dollar go, and will the Fed start cutting rates in 2023? PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell OUTLINE:

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the impact dollar strength is having on gold and the increasing yield gap between the US dollar and major currencies. Finally, we ask, is there scope in the system for a shock from a highly valued US dollar? Time Stamps: · 0.41 – Gold longs aren’t strong, but shorts aren’t convinced · 3:35 – Point n Figure suggested in April gold would fall to US$1,738 · 6:40 – Gold looked like an outlier compared to inflation linked bonds · 8:22 – Divergent central bank polices increase the yield gap · 12:06 – Silver moves with copper but retail demand for silver is strong · 17:49 – Fed aim to suppress inflation · 18:61 – Lower growth environment likely to be supportive for gold · 20:11 – Expectations for a recession have sharply increased · 23:26 – Option strikes may push gold to US$1,700 · 24:12 – Euro and US dollar at parity, temporary or a the new normal? · 27:45 – RBA risk significant pain if they lift rates too high · 31:49 – Aussie dollar falling as export slow, likely to go lower · 32:29 – Key takeaways

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, we look at what managed money’s lack of rotation is signalling about stagflation fears, the G7’s decision to ban Russian gold imports, how the Fed will manage rate expectations against inflation plus the Bank of Japan’s intervention in their bond market and the inflection point in the Japanese yen. Time Stamps: · 0:40 – Managed money not rotating into gold despite stagflation being broadly Au positive · 3:42 ­– Gold has held technical support · 5:24 – Price targets ahead for spot gold · 8:00 – G7 Russian gold ban, will it have a meaningful impact or is it symbolic? · 12:10 – Silver and copper prices still move together · 14:12 – Copper price produces a ‘hammer’ shape on chart · 17:06 – Fed terminal rate expectations have dropped slightly · 19:26 – Small divergence between official Fed stance and their research · 21:24 – China’s property downturn is impacting steel market · 24:07 – Japanese government bonds and futures no longer correlated · 27:53 – Key takeaways

Recorded at the Australian Gold Conference on 14th June, in this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell start with ‘the market that matters the most’, the Fed’s 75 basis point increase, discuss liquidity fears not seen since the financial crisis and how gold is holding up remarkably well... Time Stamps: · 1:29 – Higher interest rates triggered a ‘violent’ response from markets · 6.48 – Fed have made it clear they will do whatever it takes to reduce inflation · 9:55 – Terminal rate now likely above 4% in 2023 · 11:59 – Managed money not overly committed to gold, ETF positioning has plateaued · 15:13 – Silver may struggle if we experience a global slow down · 19:52 – Point and figure price targets for gold and silver · 25:41 – Key takeaways

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the confluence of Fibonacci levels in gold, the duality of views coming from the Federal Reserve Bank, and what Dr copper can tell us about silver. Time Stamps: · 1:06 – Gold closes above the weekly cloud · 5:16 – Spot gold and the confluence of Fibonacci levels · 8:19 – Point n Figure suggests there’s room for gold to reach US$1,900s · 9:58 – Shorts are driving silver but for how much longer? · 14:10 – The duality of views around Fed policy · 19:00 – Highly indebted financial systems mean ‘you don’t have to do as much’ · 20:34 – Copper is falling with Chinese economic data, taking silver with it · 23:14 – 15 basis points won’t solve China’s property woes · 26:36 – Australian dollar falls to where Nick said it would · 28:30 – Key takeaways · Episode 16 can be found here: https://anchor.fm/pod-of-gold/episodes/How-much-longer-can-the-US-dollar-rally-last-e1htqoh 

Recorded Live from RIU Sydney 2022 In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how the US dollar may be nearing the peak of its 39-month cycle, why Russia’s war on Ukraine increased inflation risks and what these mean for spot gold. Time Stamps: · 0:40 — US dollar strength and real yields · 2:12 — Russian invasion worsens inflation outlook · 3:53 — Key factors driving the gold price · 7:22 — What net positioning in the US dollar reveals · 10:31 — The importance of the ‘little purple box’ · 12:07 — Three bullish price targets for spot gold · 15:12 — The gold bull is out – but with a caveat · 18:19 — High natural gas prices risk food insecurity  · 21:14 — China’s banking sector ‘very linked’ to property · 24:18 — RBA and inflation: Can they reduce Australia’s inflation pressures? · 28:15 — Key takeaways · RIU presentation can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnIE0u9Lqh8

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how one indicator would have tested the resolve of most traders, the absolute smashing for most currencies against the US dollar, why Brent’s retreat won’t last and what could cause gold to jump despite the current strong dollar. Time Stamps: · 0:40 — Gold’s shooting star was a warning · 4:28 — An unpleasant test for traders · 6:31 — Silver’s falls outside the cloud and challenges the bullish view · 12:02 — The DXY and its 39-month cycle · 16:00 — Is the US dollar rally entering its last phase? · 18:12 — Expectations for the Fed’s terminal rate have moved higher · 20:13 — Brent sees a soft retreat, yet high targets remain · 22:59 — There may be an even bigger fall ahead for the Aussie dollar · 27:23 — Key take away · Previous episodes referred to can be found here: o Episode #15 - https://anchor.fm/pod-of-gold/episodes/Crudes-correlation-to-gold-and-why-the-bulls-are-ready-to-charge-e1h73qt o Episode #14 - https://anchor.fm/pod-of-gold/episodes/Instability-risks-in-China-grow-as-gold-sniffs-out-support-e1grf7a o Episode #11 - https://anchor.fm/pod-of-gold/episodes/Gold-and-commodities-soar-as-Russia-Ukraine-conflict-drives-markets-e1fegni

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss managed money’s increased short position for gold and silver’s recent bounce. Nick delves into Russia’s recent monetary theatre, then takes a deep look at the bullish predictions for Brent, and crude’s correlation to gold. Time Stamps · 0:44 — Managed money is on the defensive, yet technical support for gold is strong · 7:16 — Nick’s bullish call for silver played out, where to next? · 10:18 – Russia, rubles, and gold · 14:05 – Understanding the dollar dominance · 15:00 — Brent demand drops and takes the crude price with it · 14:10 — Can Russia’s oil supply be replaced? · 18:59 — Brent at US$200 per barrel is possible · 21:26 — Key takeaway: Higher oil prices may lift gold · 23:32 — Aussie dollar short covering

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell look at how Managed Money has reduced their exposure to gold for the third week in a row, why the Fed’s terminal limit is higher than we think, and what the synchronised slowdown in two of the world’s largest economies means. Time Stamps: · 0.55 – Managed Money has reduced their positioning in gold three weeks in a row · 3.10 – Ichimoku weekly standard line has been providing excellent support for gold · 5.05 – Outflows from gold appear to be moving into cash · 7.11 – Silver positioned well but vulnerable to industrial demand · 10.04 – Hawks driving the dialogue coming out of Fed · 13.07 – Tequila Crisis – a look at past rapid and aggressive tightening cycles · 15.20 – The world’s two largest economies have problems in their property markets · 19.43 – China’s pursuit of Covid zero continues – will this policy shift? · 22.24 – Key takeaways

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the tilt of positioning in gold, some bullish price targets for silver and why the Fed didn’t want to spook the market. Plus, we have an update on China’s property sector, as well as a look at the LME’s day of reckoning last week. Time Stamps: · 0.57 – Why gold is difficult to trade during news flow · 3.10 - Managed Money positioning · 7.01 – Candle hints at gold price reversal, Ichimoku cloud confirms it · 8.06 – ‘Silver can and will do anything it wants’ · 10.25 – Downside targets for silver, but still in an uptrend · 12.02 – FOMC increases rates - what does the tightening cycle look like? · 16.00 – China’s property problems are not going away · 19.30 – LME’s day of reckoning

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how the Russian-Ukraine conflict may lead to a less aggressive Fed tightening cycle for 2022, silver’s recent short covering and what Russia’s invasion means for gold in the weeks ahead. Time Stamps: · 1.00 – Gold volatility and managed money positioning · 4.00 - ‘War drives up the price of gold but the news flow can drive it up and down tremendously’ · 5.30 – How gold is behaving compared to other currency pairs · 6.49 – Silver short covering · 10.04 - Ichimoku Cloud for gold and silver: Technical picture for gold exceeds silver at present · 12.00 – Fed lift-off likely, but not as aggressive as first thought · 13.45 – Fed aware of downstream impacts of Russia-Ukraine conflict · 15.00 – Western response has been swift and more hostile than Russia expected · 18.25 – Russia may lose access to some of their foreign reserves · 22.35 – How gold performs during times of conflict · 25.34 – Key takeaways from today

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss what fast money and slow money suggest about sentiment in gold, how 'when the Fed is in a tightening cycle, we all are' and the dollar positive environment which could provide a headwind for gold. Time Stamps: · 1.20 – Gold breaks through the weekly cloud top signalling a swing to the medium term bullish · 3.40 – Managed money not revealing much · 6.10 – Silver shorts look to be on the defensive · 8.45 – Central banking policy divergence - Fed leads pivot toward tightening · 13.20 – Tightening will create a dollar positive environment and may put pressure on gold · 16.45 – Gold price going into the close on 11th February · 18.30 – What is ‘fast money’ and ‘slow money’ telling us about gold? · 21.20 – Palladium market perhaps not concerned about outcomes of Russia-Ukraine or sanctions · 24.10 – Rumours of a whale in the gold market · 28.30 – Key takeaways from today · Book Nick mentions: Bloodlands: Europe between Hitler and Stalin by Timothy Snyder

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the gold’s price moves, managed money’s short covering in silver, how the yield curve is signalling slower growth and just how aggressive the Fed rate hikes may be. Finally, we touch on what a very long-term Point & Figure chart is telling us about the Aussie dollar. Time Stamps: · 1.10 – Physical gold in high demand this week · 2.20 – Gold price moves within the support and resistance of the Ichimoku Cloud · 4.45 – Managed money and open interest positioning in gold · 6.15 – Silver buying January looks to be short covering · 7.50 – How aggressive with will the Fed rate hikes be? · 11.30 – The flattening of the yield curve suggests slower US growth · 13.30 – Gold ETFs signal a pivot away from risk on assets · 16.15 – Very long term Point & Figure chart is bearish for the Aussie dollar 23.15 – Key takeaways

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss gold’s lively start to 2022 and a strong tightening cycle may drive people away from risk assets to risk-off assets. We assess the recent comments from the Fed and what several rate increases will mean for US dollar denominated debt. Plus, we touch on China’s relentless pursuit of zero covid to protect their export economy. Time Stamps: · 0.59 — Fresh longs coming into gold suggest strong interest · 3.45 — Higher rates may impact risk assets more than gold · 5.15 — Silver ready to run? Managed money positioning looks supportive · 7.41 — Movement in gold and silver ETFs · 9.06 — The impact of US bond yields and geopolitical tensions on gold · 10.33 — Did Powell’s comments drive gold higher? · 13.15 — Rate hikes from Fed may impact US dollar denominated debt · 14.40 — Quantitative tightening - the market is prepared for this · 18.00 — China’s untenable pursuit of Covid zero to protect their export economy · 21.270 — Nat gas prices have fallen as EU shipping ports are full · 22.00 — Key takeaways from today: Understanding the macro and the micro