Global Research Unlocked

Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Bruno Braizinha, Mark Cabana, and Sphia Salim. The conflict in Iran is a negative supply shock for much of the global economy via higher oil prices. Central banks face a deteriorated trade-off between growth and inflation. That trade off differs meaningfully across major markets, as does the repricing we have seen in rate markets. We discuss where we see value, how we expect curves to trade and what hedges look attractive.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Lower tax payments shift stimulus later into 1H26 We're in the midst of tax season, and BAC data helps us track changes in refunds, payments, and the impact on spending. Refund growth is in the high single digits y/y, but lower tax payments bring total stimulus closer to the ~25% increase we had been expecting. Aditya Bhave explains how lower payments shift the timing of benefits, potentially extending the spending lift through much of the first half of 2026. There's also evidence that higher refunds and lower payments are boosting spend, with a modest inflection since early this year. Middle- and higher‑income consumers appear to benefit most. With much of the lift tied to higher SALT deductions, we examine whether SALT states such as NY, NJ, and CA are seeing stronger spending and how weather and past wildfires may be clouding the data. We finish with whether any further measures could support lower‑income consumers and what to expect from the incoming Fed Chair.    You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.  

Banks confront renewed private credit and AI-driven risks Private credit has remained a persistent concern for banks, and recent events have brought those worries back into focus. At the same time, new fears around AI-driven competition and potential credit deterioration have weighed on the group. Ebrahim Poonawala joins us to discuss how management teams addressed these issues at the recent BofA Financials Conference, the potential defenses that banks have against AI disruption, and the ways AI could enhance efficiency. We also explore how much of this is now reflected in bank valuations, with many large regionals trading back to pre COVID P/E levels despite regulatory and cyclical tailwinds. While our US Economics team does not view a deteriorating macro backdrop as the base case, such a scenario would pose risks for valuation multiples and earnings.  You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Alex Cohen, Stephen Juneau and Meghan Swiber to discuss the US labor market. The US rate market continues to look for an anchor against the backdrop of the twin uncertainty shocks of AI and now Iran. Given developments in the Middle East it may seem backward looking to focus on payrolls, and retail sales. We disagree. Data remains of utmost importance in providing some signal about the underlying path that the US economy is taking after the shutdown. In driving risk asset performance, Friday's data may also matter more than usual for the FX market.   Disclosure: You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Please join Ralf Preusser for a discussion on global curve dynamics with Meghan Swiber, Sphia Salim and Paul Ciana. We will explore the recent shift from steepening to flattening pressures and the possible reasons behind it across regions. We will also talk about the technicals and trade implications across US, UK and EUR rates.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Yuri Seliger and Meghan Swiber to discuss supple and demand in US bond markets. Strong supply in credit has been well absorbed, helped by a significant reduction in risk delivery to the private sector by US Treasury. Inflows are robust, supported by attractive yields and until recently lower rate vol. We can also observe growing appetite to extend along the UST curve, in particular among domestic investors.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Please join Ralf Preusser for a discussion on the German outlook with Evelyn Herrmann, Sphia Salim and Michalis Rousakis. We will explore the view on the German fiscal implementation, its impact on the growth profile in 2026-27 and the challenges ahead. We will also present our EUR rate and German yield forecasts as well as our takeaways for the EURUSD outlook.   Disclosure: You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.  

Improving fundys, metals among reasons for EM optimism David Hauner argues that Emerging Markets (EM) remain a compelling opportunity, supported by favorable macro, valuation, and structural tailwinds. A weaker USD, low real US rates, and improving fundamentals across many EM economies echo past multi‑year periods of strong EM performance. After more than a decade of underallocation, global investors are beginning to return, though positioning remains well below historical norms. Metals‑producing countries are also benefiting from energy‑transition and AI‑driven demand. David also highlights risks around EM sentiment, the USD, and the Fed-currently supportive but vulnerable to higher inflation and tighter financial conditions. Even so, the improvements cited suggest selloffs are likely to attract dip buyers.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Cyclicals vs. Tech: Positioning for broadening growth Mark Cabana and Savita Subramanian discuss whether there's evidence of a cyclical upswing in economic data, and the extent to which that's impacting companies and stocks. They also delve into whether such improvement is even as positive as it would seem given it could result in higher long rates and a Fed that's less able to cut. It's important to note that our economics team expects more cuts from the Fed this year so an environment of no cuts is not our base case but it's useful to discuss the possibility. Mark explains the important role that productivity plays and how it can alleviate much of this rate risk. A combination of better growth and productivity improvements could be quite positive for certain parts of the market too and Savita offers why she doesn't think improvement is fully priced into the sectors and stocks that would benefit. We also discuss another potential risk to rates-US dollar weakness and whether Mark sees any evidence of de-dollarization that could lead to a treasury selloff.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Please join Ralf Preusser in discussion with Aditya Bhave and Mark Cabana to discuss the nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair. We will analyse the implications for monetary policy, the outlook for the Fed's balance sheet and the market reaction in US Treasury markets to the announcement. We will also preview US data and review the quarterly refunding announcement.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Please join Ralf Preusser in discussion with Paul Ciana, Alex Cohen and Adarsh Sinha. The team will address the rate checks in USDJPY and its impact on not just the yen but also the dollar. We will give thoughts on the effectiveness of FX interventions and lessons from the past. We will address the US government's FX policy and longer-term USD outlook, as well as the potential implications of the election in Japan. Finally, we do so against the background of key technical levels in FX crosses, rates and commodities   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Please join Sphia Salim for a discussion with Takayasu Kudo and Shusuke Yamada on Japanese developments this week, including the major long-end steepening. We will review the BoJ meeting, explore what the Feb 8th election, announced this week, could mean for Japanese fiscal policy and thereby the risks it presents for JGB yields, the curve and JPY.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

AI Fuels Power Growth, Politics Shape the Path As utilities enter 2026, the investment narrative evolves from a pure growth story to one defined by smarter positioning and selective opportunity. While AI‑driven power demand and data center expansion remain powerful secular tailwinds, political scrutiny about electricity affordability-especially in states with tightly contested elections-introduces complexity. Some state governments are addressing these concerns by designing data‑center tariffs that shift costs away from residential customers, ideally lowering consumer bills while unlocking economic development. In the opinion of BofA Global Research utilities analyst Ross Fowler, recent weakness in power stocks likely reflects rotation and a somewhat unfair association with AI spending risks in corners of the market rather than fading fundamentals. This has created some particularly attractive entry points. Utilities that balance growth, regulation, and reliability are well positioned to perform in this current market regime. As for the source of generation growth, different costs and profiles will mean various utilities will see growth, from solar and storage to nuclear.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Takes from Defense Forum and Private Company Meetings US defense is in the midst of an upcycle, driven by an increasingly assertive policy stance, the potential for a step‑change in federal defense spending, and accelerating innovation across traditional and non‑traditional contractors. Earlier this month, Ron Epstein hosted discussions at the 18th BofA Global Research Defense Forum in New York, which underscored a bullish multi‑year outlook. U.S. spending could step higher in F27, some of that merely helping to match some European promises when it comes to spend as a percentage of GDP. This will require increased automation for defense companies, an investment theme in its own right. It may also come with more conditions and we discuss whether this could be a risk going forward. Another important topic in the industry is the many innovative private companies in the defense space. Ron discusses some of the areas of focus for these firms and how they can be complementary to defense primes.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Please join Ralf Preusser in discussion with Mark Capleton, Sphia Salim and Meghan Swiber, analysing global yield curve dynamics. We will explain our outlook for curves across USD, EUR and GBP. We will focus on what we have learnt so far this year and on risks to our forecasts, including issuance patterns, investor behaviour (incl Dutch pension reform) and the policy environment (in particular in the US).   Disclosure: You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Aditya Bhave and Mark Cabana after the US labor market report. The team will discuss the US payroll print in detail and give their thoughts on what this is likely to mean for the Fed and the US rate market. We will also elaborate on what we have learnt about the US economy over the holidays and why this doesn't make the Fed's job any easier.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.  

Eyes off US roads to understand lithium demand It may have seemed as though 2025 would have been a challenging year for lithium but North American electric vehicle production accounted for only about 10% of the global total, even prior to the expiration of the $7500 subsidy. That's one reason that equities tied to the metal have fared well. Chinese EVs and battery storage, a beneficiary of data center investment, are much more important contributors to the lithium demand story today, while future drivers include drones and robots. Rock discusses how all this translates for lithium demand and touches on the supply outlook where possible project restarts could have meaningful impact on our estimates. We pivot to Matt for a discussion of chemicals more broadly and discuss phosphate, where the demand tailwinds aren't as strong as but where supply constraints are stronger. We even get into common threads between lithium and phosphate.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.  

Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Paul Ciana. Paul will talk through his views for 2026 across rates, FX, commodities and equities. Paul will also outline how to use technical analysis and leverage multiple indicators, methodologies, tools, sentiment, and positioning to come up with his high conviction views. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Year ahead themes and where we could be wrong Earlier this month, BofA Global Research published a note with 10 of the key views outlined in 2026 macro Year Ahead reports. This podcast features seven strategists and economists discussing certain of those themes and offering the primary risks to the views that they foresee. We start with our view on U.S. growth, where we're more bullish than consensus, then offer support for that optimism with a take on why we don't yet see an AI bubble. We then discuss our constructive outlook for emerging markets but our more muted view on the S&P 500. We offer our take on why it's important for policymakers to keep inflation down and what that means for bonds, share our official view on the 10Y and finish with what all of that means for U.S. housing.    You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Ralf Preusser is joined in discussion by Adarsh Sinha and Mark Cabana. We will review the outlook for US rates and the US dollar after this week's FOMC meeting. We also analyse the motivation and implications behind the Fed’s new Reserve Management Purchases. Finally, we will also discuss the dramatic repricing of the policy outlook for the RBA, preview next week's BoJ meeting and outline our views on GBP.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.