Forward Guidance

Porter Collins and Vincent Daniels were some of the last investors to bet against the Federal Reserve and win. Over 13 years after the events of “The Big Short,” they reflect on the past decade wherein the Federal Reserve tamed asset price volatility by keeping short-term rates very low and steadily expanding their balance sheet via quantitative easing (QE). Learning from this lesson, Daniels and Collins explains how Seawolf Capital largely avoided shorting stocks during 2021 because the Fed had the market’s back. Now that high inflation has forced the Fed’s hand to tighten monetary policy, Daniels and Collins think that 2022 will be an excellent year for short-selling, and that in particular the most vulnerable stocks are unprofitable growth companies that saw enormous price appreciation in 2020 and 2021. The pair explain why they remain bullish on nuclear energy, the cannabis industry, as well as stocks in the shipping and energy sector. Follow Porter Collins @Seawolfcap Follow Vincent Daniels @VD718 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ -- BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- In this episode I join the On The Margin podcast with Blockworks' very own newsletter writer Byron Gilliam for a wide raging discussion on the top stories of the week. With the recent Ripple vs SEC ruling, we discuss what impact this has for not only Ripple, but the crypto industry more broadly as many view this as a big win for the industry. We then dive deep into earnings with a number of companies reporting this week, and many more reporting next week. Will the big tech led bull run continue, or is this new bull market approaching a mania phase? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Byron: https://twitter.com/bgilliam1982 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3 Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX __ This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week. As economic data & growth remains resilient, markets continue rallying despite negative sentiment coming into the year. We discuss whats in store for the second half of the year & whether the Fed will get their soft landing? — Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ — Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ — Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ultra short-term Treasurys have rallied so much that the 1 month bill now yields over 150 basis points less than similar instruments at the Federal Reserve. Jeff Snider, chief strategist at Atlas Financial and host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley to discuss. Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Jeff Snider https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:30) Money Is Getting Herded Into Highest Tier Of Collateral (07:54) Liquidity Preference Is Extreme (15:21) Treasurys Role In Banks' Asset & Liability Management (18:47) Credit Crunch (22:35) Public Ad (23:39) Are The Bank Runs Over? (30:42) Is The "Mild Recession" Forecast Plausible? (33:57) How Many More Rate Hikes Does The Fed Have In The Chamber? (35:41) The Fed's Efforts To Help The Banking System (BTFP, Discount Window, etc.) (39:40) Were Rate Hikes To Blame For The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? (43:08) Impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) On Bank Deposit Levels (44:50) Was There "Money Printing" In 2020? (47:42) Did The Banks Take Too Much Interest Rate Risk in 2020 & 2021? (49:48) Defining "Deflationary Money" (55:12) LIBOR Futures Will Be Phased Out, Right? (56:37) Counterargument: Debt Ceiling Is The Reason Short-Term Treasury Bills Are Trading At Such A Premium (01:02:32) Summary Of Jeff's Views On Credit Crunch & Deflationary Money

This week, I join Mike Ippolito on his weekly roundup edition of On The Margin to discuss bank earnings a month on from the "March banking panic". We also discuss the Fed's weekly H.4.1 report which saw a slight uptick in the BTFP usage, and a slight reduction in the discount window borrowing. We then tie how all these factors will effect the economy and markets, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Lightspeed Podcast Opportunity Click here to learn more about Blockworks' upcoming Lightspeed podcast and submit an application to be one of our hosts! http://bit.ly/40J0jCx -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.