Super-Spiked Podcast

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We follow-up to last week’s post Obliterating Peak Oil Demand: A Progress Update (here). Our main issue with the peak oil demand narrative is that it it doesn’t solve for how everyone on Earth will someday enjoy the lifestyles The Lucky 1 Billion of Us take for granted. We believe the total addressable market (TAM) for oil is 250 million b/d, well above current levels of around 103 million b/d. The analytical mistake we think many are making is deducting future electric vehicle (EV) growth from something near current oil demand as opposed to from oil’s TAM when everyone on Earth ultimately lives within fully developed economies. Furthermore, EVs only address about 25% of the oil demand barrel and are unlikely to be viable solution for the entirety of even that sliver of demand.At its core, our long-term outlook for oil demand looks at the relationship between global GDP growth and the quantity of oil demand needed to generate a dollar of GDP. We observe the long-term trend that every year the world generally requires slightly less oil to generate a dollar of GDP, a concept we refer to as “efficiency gains.” In this case, efficiency gains includes both fuel economy (improving miles per gallon) and product substitution (e.g., EVs, SAF, RD). Based on our analysis of “efficiency gains”, there is essentially no evidence oil demand is on-track to plateau let alone decline in coming years. We believe there is not a decade let alone year when anyone today can definitively declare oil demand will peak. We show two country examples—China and India—which collectively have growth potential of 40-60 million b/d in order to reach a TAM that reflects a 10 barrels of oil demand per capita, consistent with “everyone being rich.” China and India are also examples of what we believe will be the main driver of limiting the TAM of oil markets to something well below 250 million b/d, which is geopolitical security. For countries that are not blessed with abundant crude oil resources, especially sizable ones like China and India, we see a strong motivation to limit growth in oil imports—the ultimate TAM limiter for oil markets. 🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We follow up on last week’s deep post (here) on cash return on gross capital invested (CROCI), which we view as a complementary profitability metric to return on capital employed (ROCE). The videopod starts with the reasons to introduce a second, primary metric due to some of the issues with ROCE around write-offs and the inherent incentive to under-invest given the nature of the ROCE calculation. We discuss how CROCI offers different insights at the sub-sector level. Finally, we provide hypothetical examples based on actual company data for two companies that took large write-offs that boosted ROCE in subsequent years; one company continued to lag on CROCI while the other showed fundamental improvement. It is this kind of divergence that we find interesting, especially when ROCE is rendered less meaningful due to recent large impairment charges. As always, we welcome feedback, pushback, and discussion on this (and all!) topics we discuss.🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We spent this past week in Houston attending CERAWeek 2024. It was another great event; thank you and congratulations to everyone at S&P Global for hosting and putting on a great show!Coming out of last year’s event, our key theme was “The Energy Transition Needs To Transition” away from an obsessive focus on only counting carbon to one that centered itself around meeting the massive unmet energy needs of everyone on Earth with affordable, reliable, and geopolitically secure energy, which in turn would better enable environmental objectives to be met. A year later, we see “green shoots” that a healthier energy evolution era is emerging and that “The New Energy Transition Narratives” we discuss in this week’s videopod are increasingly aligned with our framing.Energy demand is increasing nearly everywhere with all energy sources and a host of both traditional and new technologies. The developing world appears to be gaining confidence to go its own way, with diminishing western world influence. And the new trend of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven power demand growth is waking the US up to the needs for an “all of the above” energy approach if we are to have reliable and growing power generation. See our post from last week, “Will AI Be Our Salvation To A Healthier Energy Evolution?” (here).We see the potential for new business models, collaborations, and partnerships across energy value chains and between energy suppliers and users (Tech and Industrial sectors in particular) to be a likely future trend. It is about as interesting and dynamic of a period in the energy sector as we can remember over our 32-year career. We would like to wish everyone that celebrates a Happy Easter. We too will be enjoying the long weekend and will publish our next Super-Spiked in two weeks. 🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We focus on some of the big macro themes that have emerged from earnings season across the broader stock market, with a focus on electric vehicle (EV) adoption S-curves, artificial intelligence (AI), ongoing US energy sector M&A, and the role of Canadian energy companies looking forward. Trends with both EVs and AI add to our confidence that demand for all sources of energy, including oil and natural gas, will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. We do not believe anyone can know today which decade let alone year that oil or natural gas will definitively peak. We would encourage readers to review Ford CEO Jim Farley’s introductory remarks on Ford’s 4Q2023 earnings call. Mr. Farley recognized the challenges Ford is facing in ramping EV sales; and while the company remains committed to longer-term EV growth, it is clearly going to be at a slower pace than what was envisioned even one year ago. At the same time, Mr. Farley noted an uptick in hybrid vehicle sales, which, ironically, may be the technology most appropriate for US consumers and could eventually, and finally, lead to marked improvements in fuel economy. It has long been our view that it is inappropriate to use a uniform rapid EV adoption “s-curve” in all regions; we do not believe the examples of Norway (driven by climate policy) or China (driven by geopolitical security) will be representative of the United States, India, or many other developing countries. As it relates to traditional energy, we believe the belief that rapid global EV adoption will lead to oil demand rolling over within the next 5-10 years is not anywhere near on track to occur, especially when one considers the massive untapped energy demand of the other 7 billion on Earth that are not amongst The Lucky 1 Billion of us. We recognize that “AI” has become a major buzzword, and with that likely comes some hype and over-enthusiasm about the subject. That said, we are believers that the next major technology revolution is here. The relevance to energy is that implied power demand from AI technology use, datacenters, and related infrastructure will be massive. After about 20 years of broadly flat US power demand, low-to-mid-single digit load growth appears to have returned (even higher in some regions). Load growth and growing penetration of intermittent resources like solar and wind are an unhealthy mix—a point that does not appear to be lost on the giant technology companies. In our view, it may well be AI that proves to be our salvation when it comes to what we have called “a messy energy transition era.” The general freak-out by many Big Tech firms over how to source power while also meeting sustainability goals, we believe could lead to a healthier narrative around energy overall. Big Tech is going to need “all of the above” energy solutions that can meet growing power demand. Near-zero methane natural gas along with nuclear are going to be important components of our power generation mix along with rising renewables output. 🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

Note: this is republication in order to upload the audio to Apple Podcasts and Spotify.WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUEbutton above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We return to our sub-theme of "Goodbye Europe, Hello Rest of World" sparked by Barclay's updated Climate Change Statement (here and here), evidence of structural de-industrialization in Germany, and our recent analysis on Norway's resilient overall oil demand despite gasoline erosion due to its electric vehicle (EV) ramp.With Europe fading as a core driver of global GDP growth, our macro focus is on how key population centers in Asia, in particular China (1.4 billion people), India (1.4 billion people), and the rest of southeast Asia (1.3 billion people) will meet their massive unmet energy needs. Climate policies being pursued in Western Europe, the United States, and Canada that disproportionately and perplexingly negatively impact traditional energy companies in their home regions is one of the key contributing factors to the messy energy transition era. For developing Asia, it remains an open question as to whether American and Canadian oil and natural gas (via LNG) will be part of the solution or will they instead need to rely on the Middle East and Russia.Barclay's updated Climate Change Statement that promises to stop financing new oil and gas fields and infrastructure expansion is the latest example of a western-world financial institution succumbing to pressure from "climate only" ideologues. It is deeply unfortunate. Germany's ill-advised energy and climate policies are undoubtedly a major contributor to its relatively high power prices and undeniable signs of structural de-industrialization. Norway's rapid EV ramp shows how hard it is to kill overall oil demand—a fact "net zero by 2050" scenarios bizarrely ignore. Ill-advised energy and climate policies from European governments and, increasingly, financial institutions like Munich Re and Barclays (among many others) is contributing heavily to what we call a messy energy transition era—our motivation for creating Super-Spiked.🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUEbutton above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We had intended to follow-up last weeks’ ROCE Deep Dive post (here) with examples of how to apply it to macro forecasting as well as sub-sector and company analysis. However, a surprise LNG permit “pause” from the Biden Administration followed a few days later by Saudi’s announcement it would “pause” its planned oil capacity expansion has led to a change in publishing plans!We wrote a seven-part tweet/post on Twitter-X over the weekend (here) that has now garnered a mind-boggling 120,000 views, well above our typical 1,000-4,000 views per tweet/post. Key points: (1) there is no such thing as an “Industry” view on the “pause,” it essentially depends on whether a company, industry, or country is long or short natural gas; (2) the potential impact on Europe has been both over-analyzed and overstated; (3) the implications for developing Asia have been under-appreciated; (4) competitor countries are undoubtedly rejoicing over the news; (5) big versus small government is a basic viewpoint difference in how to address energy & environmental policy; (6) climate implications are more complex than the simple debate of LNG is higher-carbon than renewables versus lower carbon than coal. We address the Saudi capacity expansion pause from the perspective of the recent Saudi oil policy that has focused primarily on the front-end of the curve. Is this a shift to focusing on long-dated oil? As a reminder, both the Biden LNG permit and Saudi capacity expansion pauses are consistent with our “Super Vol” rather than “super-cycle” commodity macro framework. Policy rhetoric and actions, frankly, can be as meaningful as underlying supply/demand, especially over the near-to-medium term.Finally, we observe signs that we are past “peak Tesla,” especially when considered alongside clear evidence of electric vehicle (EV)-or-bust fatigue among car buyers and many traditional auto manufactures. China’s EV ramp continues, more or less unabated, and we believe is highly motivated by a desire to limit growth in oil imports. We do not believe there is a singular EV adoption “S-curve” for all regions. China will be different than the USA, which will be different than India, the rest of Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. We continue to believe there is not a decade, let alone year, when we KNOW oil demand will peak, even as we expect continued growth in many new energy technologies including EVs.🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUEbutton above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Our first two written posts of 2024 focused on the Big Themes and Tactical Questions we see for the traditional energy sector. In this video we bring those together with an expanded discussion on a number of sub-sectors including the international oil companies (IOCs) & Canadian “Big-4” oils, US “Big-3” downstream, US/Canada midstream (includes pipelines and MLPs), and gassy E&Ps. Traditional energy exhibits a massive and diverse set of opportunities and one of our 2024 aims is to provide our perspectives on where differentiated opportunities exist. The world has now recovered from the deep COVID trough. The recovery trade in traditional energy ended in 2022. Balance sheets are fixed and profitability structurally improved (versus last decade). The challenge now for individual companies across the various sub-sectors is to articulate and demonstrate a differentiated approach to meeting the world’s massive unmet energy needs through a strategy that is both profitable and durable, or, recognizes a lack of durability by liquidating, selling, or otherwise distributing essentially all cash back to investors. If this week’s video is not enough for you, Arjun also appeared on Lykeion’s (Geopolitics of Commodities) podcast hosted by Scott Smitson. The 55-minute discussion (link) covered global energy, Europe’s energy polices, under appreciated aspects of the energy transition, the role of government in energy policy, near-term geopolitical risk and spare capacity, and more.Arjun also joined Tom Loughery and Reed Barrett of FLOW on a 54-minute webinar ( link, password S4Pz0+4v). Key topic items included our SuperVol framework, Tom’s view on the “second-half” of shale, the role of early versus late stage private equity, exploration, Super Major/large-cap E&P vs SMID-cap E&P strategies, and what our “phasing-in profitable growth” theme really means. As always, we appreciate and look forward to your comments, critiques, and, if you wish, praise. 🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUEbutton above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. In what is likely to be our final Super-Spiked for 2023, we provide a 2024 preview with the theme of “phasing-in profitable growth.” In the prior two Super-Spiked posts, we have discussed key takeaways from 2023, including ROCE resilience for traditional energy, the significant pressure facing many new energies business models, the massive total addressable market (TAM) for global energy demand, especially given the significant unmet energy needs of the other 7 (soon to be 9) billion people on Earth, and the ongoing “Super Vol” macro backdrop. For traditional energy in 2024, we believe leading companies will be able to articulate and demonstrate what their unique value proposition is. ROCE improvement in and of itself is not enough; there is a need to demonstrate long-term profitability resilience and articulate a positive equity story. For new energies, the questions are more around figuring out which new businesses will scale excluding subsidies. When we look at the massive energy TAM and take into account the desire among developing countries to have geopolitically secure energy sources, there is a major role for new energies to play, even before also taking into account environmental objectives. Sorting through the rubble of this year’s sell-off, or considering new opportunities, will be the focus.As 2023 winds down, we would like to wish all Super-Spiked subscribers a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy New Year, and Happy Holiday Season! We will see you early in 2024.🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.Subscribed* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week's video is a follow up to last week’s “Reframing the growth versus returns trade-off debate” post (here). We provide additional perspectives on the opportunity for leading energy companies to narrow, if not close, the large valuation gap that we believe exists for companies capable of sustaining top quartile profitability. The ability to sustain profitability, somewhat paradoxically, requires risk taking via some mixture of M&A, exploration, global, new energies, or infrastructure investments. We also note that items like dividend/stock buyback policy and ESG & climate objectives are “table stakes” and not core investment drivers on their own. 🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We follow-up on last week's post (here) that dove into our takeaways from recent Super Major M&A activity. We look to address the issues of (1) what is the goal of recent M&A activity; (2) what consensus media or Street views do we disagree with on M&A; (3) whether bigger is better; and (4) what does this mean for SMID-cap traditional energy.🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We focus on the long-term implications to the energy sector of the sharp rise in geopolitical turmoil, especially following the terrorist attack in Israel last weekend, coupled with continued stock market turmoil among past energy transition darlings like Orsted and Next Era Energy Partners among many others.We make the following observations:* The unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth is massive and points to significant long-term growth potential in all forms of energy, both new technologies and traditional sources like crude oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear.* Yet, almost no one is calling for oil and gas companies to grow CAPEX and the major decline in New Energies equities and rising cost of capital in that space points to slower New Energies CAPEX as well, at least versus prior forecasts.* Rising Middle East tensions and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine come at a time of generally low OPEC spare capacity, even after considering the recent supply cuts from Saudi Arabia.* The number of oil projects in particular being pursued continues to shrink and the cost curve is steepening. * While we continue to characterize the commodity macro as "Super Vol" rather than "super cycle" due to economic uncertainty in three of the largest energy consuming regions--China, Europe, and the USA--the addition of new geopolitical risks in the Middle East coupled with turmoil in the New Energies space suggest it is just a matter of time before we hit a major pinch point for energy commodity prices.* The traditional energy sector continues to be generally under-appreciated by most investors, policy makers, politicians, and academics. And we would at some point expect to find value among some New Energies equities whenever the dust settles, though that day may still be some ways into the future.🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Our video this week is titled Profits Over Preaching as we look to bring together a number of recent themes and address three interesting questions we have received while attending recent macro/industry events in Italy, Calgary, and New York. Q1: Will peak oil supply fears return? We admit to being surprised at this question being raised, but it’s a good one. Over the past month-plus we have spent considerable time discussing our view that there is no peak to oil (or natural gas and perhaps not even coal) demand coming anytime soon. Trying to guess a future round-number date misses the fact that the total addressable market of future energy demand for the 7 (soon to be 9) billion people in the Rest of the World is massive; we will need all forms of energy to meet that eventual and inevitable demand. We have also noted the steepening oil cost curve (a sign of a shrinking number of low-cost oil projects) and the low levels of industry CAPEX as pointing to a future supply crunch. To be clear, we have never believed the world will be resource short anytime soon but it does require making an effort via CAPEX to grow supply. Right now, economic uncertainty in China, Europe, and the USA have allowed demand to be met by a variety of supply sources and we have stuck with a Super Vol rather than Super Cycle framing. It likely will take a firmer global economic footing to spark an oil super cycle. Q2: What does XLE outperformance vs ICLN say about opportunities in traditional versus new energies? We highlight ICLN underperformance looks similar to what Goldman Sachs portfolio strategists have observed with unprofitable versus profitable tech. The market is clearly demanding evidence that business models are on-track to profitably scale and punishing those where there have been disappointments. While there is a role for government to play in establishing incentives, rules, and regulations, we believe caution is warranted for businesses where government is picking technology winners and fully subsidizing business models. Q3: Are we therefore just being polite when we say new energies have a future? No, we are not simply trying to be polite! One should be careful not to assume struggles in one area (e.g., offshore wind) indicate it is all doomed; it isn’t. In fact, new energy opportunities have a wide swath of business models, exposures, capital intensity, geographies, subsidy needs, and ownership structures. Tesla has shown $ trillion dreams can be realized. But even on a much smaller scale, there are many interesting opportunities to consider. No one should confuse our pragmatism with pessimism about new energies. We will need it all, both new and old, if the world is to meet its long-term energy needs.🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we stick with the video format to provide an update on “where are we in the cycle” for traditional energy. Key messages:(1) We are still early in a new structural bull phase for ROCE.* ROCE vs WTI is holding up well, despite sequentially lower oil prices* LTM ROCE remains at or above 20% for the fifth straight quarter* Net debt has ticked up off recent lows, but traditional energy balance sheets overall are much improved* CAPEX remains in check and well below danger zone levels.(2) We are early in the market moving past the idea that oil & gas is a sunset industry.* Traditional energy has now fully recovered lost ground at the start of COVID relative to the S&P 500, ICLN “Clean Energy” ETF, and forward oil prices.* Looking over longer time periods, traditional energy is still trailing other areas by large margins.* Most importantly, there remains a very wide gap between the sector’s discounted S&P weighting (now about 4.5%) versus ROCE, a gap we expect to narrow via an eventual re-rating higher of traditional energy.* We continue to believe oil demand will grow, excluding recessions, for the foreseeable future; arguments calling for “peak oil demand” are in the process of being obliterated.(3) For the time being, we still prefer “super vol” over “super cycle” to describe the commodity macro backdrop.* In the near term, we are in an environment of rocky GDP in the three largest oil consuming areas—China, Europe, and the United States.* We are not yet in a period where oil prices can rally into strengthening GDP, as we saw in the 2002-2008 cycle. * The oil cost curve is narrowing and steepening , suggesting a supply crunch is coming. * But range bound long-dated oil (60 months forward) reinforces our “super vol” rather than “super cycle” perspectives. This will be our final Super-Spiked of Summer 2023; we will return the Saturday after Labor Day. We hope everyone enjoys the last days of summer!🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. This week's video continues our now month-long series of analyzing the significant long-term growth potential we see for crude oil, which is in sharp contrast to consensus fears that "peak oil demand" is imminent (i.e., within the next 5 years). Frankly, the numbers in the developing world are overwhelming in terms of overall energy needs. We will need all forms of energy, both traditional sources, and, hopefully, new technologies as well. To apply some numbers to the issue, the lucky one billion of us that live in the USA, Canada, Western Europe, Japan, Australia, or New Zealand used 41 million b/d of crude oil in 2022, or about 13 barrels per person per year. In contrast, the other 7 billion people in the Rest of the World used 59 mn b/d, or just 3 barrels per person per year. Even as attempts are made to reduce rich-country oil demand, the upside potential in the developing world we believe is magnitudes greater. We point to an equivalent 10 barrel per person per year consumption level as what is possible for the developing world over the coming decades. We will need a whole bunch of new technologies to help meet the implied energy demand growth required for the Rest of the World to reach rich country standards of living without actually growing to 10 barrels of oil consumption per capita. But the idea that crude oil will not play a role and would globally decline is pure fantasy. Looking at the numbers, it's not a close call.In the video, we discuss the pushback we have received, which has been pretty underwhelming to be honest. As a reminder, we approach energy markets as analysts, not advocates for any particular fuel source. Our only ideology is that we are pro-capitalism, anti-socialism. It's not about liking or disliking our viewpoint. It is about what the numbers show. And the numbers are overwhelming in terms of continued crude oil demand growth for the foreseeable future.The end, for crude oil (and natural gas) is not near.🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.Subscribed* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. This week’s video is part 1 (of at least 2) that will address the question of “is oil a sunset industry?” The sunset industry narrative has been driven by concerns about (1) being at or near “peak oil demand” due to so-called “energy transition” and (2) the sector being doomed to structurally weak profitability with 2022 being treated as a one-off due to Russia-Ukraine.Our emphatic answer is “no, the oil industry is nowhere near being in its sunset phase.” Global oil demand is on-track to obliterate peak demand concerns fueled by the IEA’s infamous “Net Zero by 2050” report. In contrast to that scenario which called for a 25% drop in oil demand by 2030 to 75 mn b/d versus a supposed 2019 peak of 100 mn b/d, oil demand is now on-track to rise to at least 105 mn b/d by 2028 per the IEA. As we look at the fact that the other 7 billion people on Earth are using just 3 barrels per person on average versus the 15-16 barrels per capita used by the lucky 1 billion of us that live in the United States, Western Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, we see significant scope for oil demand to rise well into the 2030s and possibly beyond. As is now a core theme of ours: the energy transition needs to transition to one that is centered around meeting the energy needs of the Rest of the World as its over-arching objective.In part 2, we plan to address our favorable view of oil industry profitability. While we have preferred the “Super Vol” language to describe the oil macro, we have used the super cycle language to describe our outlook for sector profitability. We are most encouraged by the fact that over the last four quarters as oil prices have corrected, profitability relative to the oil price has remained structurally better than what we saw last decade. We plan to follow up on our profitability outlook in part 2 of this series after 2Q2023 earnings later in August.🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

This week's video brings together our last two written posts that questioned the market's obsession with OPEC noise and short-term inventory changes, especially when contemplating the potential for an oil super-cycle. We observe that inventory movements drive the front-end of the curve, but do not offer insight on the long-term cycle. It is the long-end of the forward that gives the signal as to whether we are in a trading market or a super cycle. So far, it is the former; hence our use of the "Super Vol" rather than "Super Cycle" phraseology.The key to a rise in long-dated prices would be a combination of US shale oil supply disappointments relative to rig count and signs that global GDP was accelerating and could maintain momentum with higher spot oil. The steepening and growing maturity of the non-OPEC supply curve, coupled with moderate global oil demand growth, suggests a pinch point will likely come, it just hasn't obviously arrived yet.The final area discussed is the impact of "Super Vol" vs "Super-Cycle" on sector profitability. Perhaps paradoxically, a volatile, "grind-it-out" macro backdrop may be more conducive to sustain advantaged ROCE than one where a super-cycle materializes. Avoiding the ROCE "quadrilateral of death" that we have previously discussed is a key objective for individual companies and the sector broadly.Finally, we'd like to highlight two appearances from this past week. I was on Andrew Stotz's "My Worst Investment Ever" podcast (here), where he discussed his regret of ignoring sector ROCE erosion during the second half of the Super-Spike era. He also joined Canadian portfolio manager Eric Nuttall on a Twitter Spaces (here) hosted by Twitter #EFT commodities super-star Tracy Shuchart (@chigrl). Key themes discussed included Super Vol vs Super-Cycle, the outlook for Canadian energy, sector profitability trends, and perspectives on energy transition.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we provide a video update on our views of the appropriate role for oil & gas companies as it relates to so-called “energy transition.” The video is motivated by ongoing commentary, especially from the policy world, as to whether a meaningfully greater percentage of cash flows should be redirected to low-carbon opportunities and away from traditional oil & gas CAPEX or dividends/stock buybacks. This video harkens back to one of our first Super-Spiked posts titled Stop Trying to get Blockbuster Video—i.e., Big Oil—to accelerate energy transition (here).It remains our view that the single best thing an oil & gas company can do, in particular those based in the United States, Canada, or Europe, is to profitably produce as much oil and natural gas as they reasonably can in order to help meet the energy needs of the world. In the video, we comment on the role new companies—rather than legacy entities—usually play in advancing new technologies or paradigms (e.g., Blockbuster Video vs Netflix, Tesla vs traditional auto OEMs, etc.), but reflect on the “adaptation” pushback we have received. An example of successful adaptation includes the improved online presence of legacy brick-and-mortar retailers after initially struggling with the rise of internet retailing.None of this is to argue that there is nothing traditional energy companies should be doing as it relates to future energy technologies, many of which are likely to experience significant growth in coming decades. For some companies, there are logical business extension opportunities. It also seems reasonable to allocate a portion of CAPEX to new energies as a modern version of an “exploration” budget, either directly or by participating in a venture capital portfolio. Finally, we discuss what we believe are the environmental and climate responsibilities of oil & gas companies, including (1) continuing to prioritize health, safety, and the environment (HSE) programs, (2) eliminating Scope 1 emissions, (3) being on a path toward near zero methane flaring/venting/leaks, and (4) helping find solutions to the orphan wells issue in various locations. Ultimately, we believe the world greatly benefits from a healthy US, Canadian, and European oil and gas industry. 🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we provide a video update on our view about the need for "energy transition" as a concept to itself transition to one that is focused on meeting the energy supply needs of the 7 billion people that live outside of the United States, Canada, Europe, and Japan. We discuss our ongoing concerns about risks to financing needed energy supply, which is now materializing in Africa. We highlight that energy transition will likely be approached by countries as meeting a hierarchy of needs, with availability coming first followed by affordability followed by geopolitical security followed by environmental and climate considerations. With that said, an analysis of commodity supply/demand indicates there is a role for both efficiency and new technologies to play in areas that lack sufficient oil, natural gas, or coal supplies.🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and interact directly with me. Also available at https://veriten.com. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we present an update on "Where Are We In The Energy Cycle" with a focus on (1) sector profitability; (2) financing for traditional energy; and (3) the need to “extend the runway” by which companies can generate advantaged returns and shareholder distributions. The ROCE cycle remains fundamentally healthy with 4Q2022 sector ROCE staying "above the regression line" so to speak despite falling oil prices since 2Q2022. A key objective for companies and investors will be to avoid the "ROCE quadrilateral of death" which is explained in the video.Financing risk continues to increase as an expanding list of European financial and insurance firms declare they will no longer support new oil & gas developments. The demise of Credit Suisse we believe could accelerate the disappearance of European finance from traditional energy. In the United States, the regional banking crisis sparked by Silicon Valley Bank's failure raises uncertainty about U.S. regional banks in general, a key source of financing especially for smaller traditional energy firms. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of how to think about the inherent need in a naturally depleting business to "extend the runway" by adding inventory, projects, or assets at a time investors absolutely want "no new spending" yet its still early in the CAPEX cycle and cost of capital is high and competition is low.🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week's Super-Spiked video podcast is a discussion on risk taking and future capital availability for traditional energy companies of all shapes and sizes. If you are a public company, we appreciate that it is really difficult to buck the austerity demanded by shareholders. However, an inherently Super Vol macro backdrop and that very hesitancy toward new capital formation in the sector will undoubtedly lead to interesting risk/reward investment opportunities that some will look to capitalize on. Companies that look best positioned today to take advantage of potential opportunities include those that are privately-owned, though not necessarily private equity backed, as well as national oil companies (NOCs). Finally, we discuss our view that EU climate & energy policies as well as the Glasgow Alliance For Net Zero (GFANZ) is likely to put downward pressure on capital availability for traditional energy. In my view, no company in any region is immune from these pressures and understanding the direct or trickle down effects to your bank and insurance group is critical.🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com