Geopolitics with Frank McKenna

Episode 70 of Geopolitics is a bonus episode taken from a panel at our recent Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference. Frank McKenna is joined by his TD colleague The Honorable Rona Ambrose, Deputy Chairwoman, TD Securities, and former leader of the Conservative Party in Canada, for a discussion that includes the on again off again trade negotiations between Canada and the US and a review of last week's budget in Canada. While Frank admits the budget was likely over-hyped and a disappointment, Rona takes direct aim at the fact the incumbent government clearly stated that younger generations will need to suffer and made no attempts to appease the interest of the other parties in parliament with its budget decisions. Frank admits he still does not know what Trump's end goal in trade negotiations with Canada is but believes the end deal between the two countries is likely to be much narrower than anticipated originally.    This podcast was recorded on November 6, 2025 Chapter Times: 02:09 - Trump's Real Motivation for Suspending Trade Negotiations20:33 - The View Inside the Republican Party on Trade23:09 - Supreme Court Appears Skeptical of Trump's Use of IEEPA28:14 - Signals from Off Cycle US Elections34:54 - Gerrymandering41:07 - First Take on Canada's Budget For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In Episode 69, Frank invites Chris Krueger, Strategist with TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, to join the pod to help navigate the fast-moving developments in Washington including the government work stoppage, Canada-US trade negotiations, and the postmortem of President Trump's recent Whitehouse meeting with Ukraine President Zelensky. Frank describes trade negotiations as slogging along given that the two countries have incredibly inter-twined economies, and a complex trade and security relationship. Pipelines are back in the news and Frank weighs the pros and cons of a Keystone restart or pipeline to the Northern BC Coast with continued expansion of existing infrastructure. Chris provides our mostly Canadian audience with a 101 on gerrymandering, and its impact on mid-term elections. The two geopolitical experts finish up discussing the merits of a Nobel Peace Prize for Trump and potential end to the war in Ukraine. This podcast was recorded on October 20, 2025 Chapter Times:01:31 - Slogging Through Canada-US Trade Negotiations13:39 - Carney's Balancing Act with Canada's Premiers17:09 - Setting the Record Straight on Tariff Revenues22:20 - Pipelines Back in the News in Canada29:07 - Explaining Washington's Work Stoppage33:53 - Is Stellantis's Brampton Plant Closure the Canary?38:33 - Gerrymandering Gone Wild43:41 - Peace Negotiations in Middle East and Ukraine  For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Frank comes to the September podcast taping in a somber mood, strange for someone who prides himself as the eternal optimist.  What has Frank in a mood? Well, he lists several issues with the current US Administration that has him questioning the United States's position as leader of the free world. Meanwhile he is very concerned about the prospect Trump triggers the shotgun clause on CUSMA wiping out the existing agreement, a possibility allowed under Article 34.6 of the Agreement. Hence the need for Canada's Prime Minister Carney to continue to strengthen trading relationships outside of the US such as was evidenced with his recent meeting with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. Frank likes the appointment of Dawn Farrell to head the Major Projects Office and is bullish on the prospects that the one project, one review, one decision two-year time frame for Major Projects is realistic. Frank provides his thoughts on free speech in the wake of Charlie Kirk's assassination and on Putin's addiction to War. Finally, Frank cracked his familiar smile again when talking about his beloved Blue Jays as we do at the end of every podcast. This podcast was recorded on September 23, 2025 at 6 pm EST Chapter Headings:00:52 Frank's Somber Mood Towards Canada-US Relations06:33 Will Trump Renegotiate or Blow-Up CUSMA?20:50 Carney Branches Out Trading Relationships23:09 Dawn Farrell and Canada's Five Major Infrastructure Projects28:58 Canada Joins Other G7 Countries in Recognizing Palestinian State34:33 The Polarized US Political Landscape41:26 Putin's Addiction to War For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Frank is back after a month off with a lot to cover in the current Episode 67.  He starts with a review of Canada's handling of forest fires, an area where Canada is arguably a world leader, and what can be done in the new normal to mitigate risk of future forest fire growth.  Frank discusses the pros and cons of back to work legislation by the Federal Government used in the Air Canada flight attendant strike and is frustrated whenever one party has too much leverage in work disruptions.  After covering the latest on trade negotiations between Canada and the US and the potential sale of infrastructure assets by Canada's Federal Government, he switches gears to US politics, finishing up on Trump's dramatic efforts to broker an end to the Ukraine – Russian war and the gerrymandering of districts fight on-going in Texas. This podcast was recorded on August 19, 2025. Chapter Headings 04:40 - Forest Fire Mitigation Tools10:08 - Air Canada Strike Resolution is Teaching Moment18:25 - Canada's New Normal Trade Arrangement with US33:23 - Will Canada's Federal Government Sell Infrastructure Assets?37:38 - Trump's Full Court Press to End the War in Ukraine44:39 - Gerrymandering in Texas – A Precursor to More Partisan Politics  For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Frank's focus during the June episode of Geopolitics was on analyzing the fluid situation in the Middle East following Israel's 12-day war with Iran and the US's decision to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. Stepping back to the catalyst event for this war, Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu's order to take out Iranian military leaders, Frank believes this decision is more about Netanyahu's political survival than a tactical move to take advantage of a weakened group of Iranian proxies. The Iranian-Israel war also took center stage at the recent G7 Summit hosted by Canadian Prime Minister Carney, an event partially hijacked by President Trump's decision to leave early to address the Middle Eastern unrest. Prior to his departure, Trump did meet with Carney and the two leaders agreed to work out a comprehensive bi-lateral trade and security agreement within 30 days, an announcement that brings with it some skepticism as to what such an agreement will look like and whether Section 899 tax issues will be included. The conversation ends where it always seems to end, with Frank continuing to be more bullish on his beloved Blue Jays than the host. This podcast was recorded on June 24, 2025. Chapter Headings: 03:08 President Trump's Attack on Iran10:28 Political Calculus for Trump's Iran Missive16:00 Netanyahu's Decision to Open Another War Flank with Iran20:03 Trump's G-7 Departure and Relationship with Carney24:46 Evaluating Carney's Decision to Invite India's Moti to G-731:10 The Latest on Section 89935:50 Is Danielle Smith Setting the Bar Too High with BC Pipeline Chatter? For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

For the first time in four months of our podcast series, the focus of Frank's attention is not centered around tariffs. This month Frank starts with a detailed analysis of Prime Minister Carney's cabinet, a carefully constructed team of ministers balancing geographic, gender and ethnic interests from across the country. Frank addresses comments from Alberta's Premier Danielle Smith on separation, suggesting she would be better off leading than following her base of support. On a positive note, Smith seemed more bullish on the prospects for energy infrastructure builds across the country following comments from Quebec Premier Legault, who previously did not support building pipelines through his province. Frank discussed Prime Minister Carney's visit to the Whitehouse where he received good marks for his messaging on Canada's sovereignty which did not require confrontation with the President. We then move the discussion to global issues, covering handshake trade deals, the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, which Frank suggests are closer to the end than the beginning, and the recent flare up between Pakistan and India in Kashmir. He finishes with a suggestion that the Jays are better than their record, a point of view that was not supported by the normally bullish podcast host. This podcast was recorded on May 21, 2025. Chapter Headings:01:28 - The Carney Cabinet06:21 - Smith and Alberta Separation12:50 - Spending on Energy Infrastructure21:53 - Bullish Tone for Canada28:50 - Carney and Trump34:36 - Trump and Tariffs40:30 - Is Trump's Nobel Prize Slipping Away?43:31 - India-Pakistan Flare Up  For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In Episode 64, Frank covers the Canadian election from top to bottom, including addressing unflattering comments about Canada as a country from the leader of the Bloc Quebecois and the Premier of Alberta. Frank addresses each of the major platform concerns of Western leaders as it relates to natural resource and pipeline development including Bill C69, the energy cap and industrial carbon tax.  He provides a 101 lesson on equalization payments, a source of frustration for Western provinces who typically are not recipients of transfers from the Federal Government by virtue of low tax bases and resource reserves.  The episode then shifts to Canada-US relations, where Frank addresses President Trump's interference with the Canadian election and expectations for renegotiation of a trilateral trade agreement, which he suggests Canada reluctantly pursue, but with eyes wide open and asks from the north side of the border.  He finishes with an update on the war in Ukraine and, of course, laments the state of play of his beloved Toronto Blue Jays. This podcast was recorded on April 29, 2025. Chapter Headings: 00:29 - First Take on Election Results and Future of Unelected Pierre Poilievre09:34 - Regional Interests Take Centre Stage13:17 - Addressing Western Canadian Demands28:17 - Equalization Payments36:26 - Trump and the Canadian Election42:50 - The 90 Day Tariff Negotiation48:00 - Back and Forth on Russia-Ukraine  For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In Episode 63, the focus of discussions in on two main topics: new Prime Minister Mark Carney's early days at the helm of Canada, and tariffs. Frank discusses Carney's decision to travel to Europe before the US, a move that was criticized by Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, and the significant downsizing of the new Liberal cabinet, a move that was sure to hurt some feelings inside the caucus. Frank provides the pros and cons of choosing Carney or Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to represent Canada in negotiations with President Trump, and he debunks the recent claims by former Prime Minister Stephen Harper that Carney didn’t deserve credit for Canada's response to the GFC. In the tariff discussion, Frank dismisses Trump's repeated exaggerations about trade deficits equaling some sort of subsidy provided to Canada from the US.  Frank counters that the existing trade deficit is not a subsidy that costs the United States jobs, instead it is a function of our abundance of raw material inputs that the United States imports from Canada. Frank also lays to rest any notion that Canada's dairy sector is not open for business with US suppliers; in fact, the US has yet to use up more than ½ of its dairy quotas with Canada since the 2018 CUSMA agreement set new free trade supply limits. Frank finishes with some ideas for Canada's government to meet its NATO spending commitments, and his belief in the need to keep momentum moving forward with respect to the elimination of intra-provincial trade barriers. This podcast was recorded on March 17, 2025.           Chapter Headings 00:25 - Friendship Day in Colorado03:44 - Carney's Cabinet and First Trip to Europe09:02 - Carney or Poilievre – Who is Best Positioned to Negotiate with Trump?14:28 - Carney on Taxes16:41 - Harper on Carney's Contribution to Canada's GFC Response19:03 - Two East Coast Premiers Retire – is this Coincidence?21:12 - Trump's Exaggerations Used to Justify Tariffs on Canada28:38 - Meeting NATO Defense Spending Target36:24 - Understanding Dairy Quotas – Not Just a Canada Issue48:08 - Is Momentum for Removing Intra-Provincial Trade Barriers Sustainable?50:25 - Caught in the Blue Jays Vortex…Again For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In Episode 62, Frank is joined by Chris Krueger of TD Cowen's Washington Research Group to discuss the first 30 days of the Trump Administration, and the on-going trade war with Canada. Chris outlines his biggest surprises to date, including the sheer torque of rulemaking from the executive branch - he figures his team in Washington undershot the runway when it suggested Trump 2.0 would be "all gas, no break."Frank provides insights into Canada's strategy for defending itself and thinks the current alignment across the country will be key to victory against the US tariffs, but he agrees with former Prime Minister Harper in suggesting that Canadians will need to be prepared to endure some hardships through this difficult period. He also explains the meaning of Interprovincial trade barriers, suggesting that they act as a 7% tariff on goods moving from province to province.  Chris also shares his biggest surprises to date in Trump's second term, including the influence of Elon Musk. Both Chris and Frank think that the right leaning Supreme Court will give Trump leeway to continue his changes in Washington but will keep some guardrails in place.This podcast was recorded on February 18, 2025.Chapter Headings03:23 Newfoundland Premier’s “Chilling” Feedback from Trump Team10:38 Next Steps on Canada-US Tariff Debate15:40 Will Supreme Court Support Guard Rails for Executive Branch?24:40 Flooding the Zone to Change the Narrative in US31:22 Elon Musk’s Influence on Whitehouse  For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Episode 61 is a deep dive into Canadian politics. Frank starts by handicapping the Liberal leadership race to elect Canada's next Prime Minister, a leader whose first order of business will be filling the leadership vacuum in Ottawa as Canada fights back against tariff threats from President Trump. He reminds Canada's provincial leaders of the importance of putting aside regional differences in favor of a Team Canada approach.  Frank takes listeners back to Economics 101 where he discusses the theory of comparative advantage, while suggesting that businesses on both sides of the border are holding back investment while the period of tariff uncertainty continues. He addresses the trolling by President Trump of Canada and makes a passionate plea to Americans to understand that while we are friends, we want to remain Canadian. The conversation then moves to global affairs where we discuss the Israel-Hamas peace agreement, the likely end of the Ukraine War and other potential hot spots for geopolitics, including one that is surprisingly close to home. This podcast was recorded on January 20, 2025.          Chapter Headings00:50 - The Race to be Canada's Prime Minister06:24 - Trump Tariff Decision on Hold10:20 - Leadership Vacuum in Ottawa11:50 - Economics 101 – Tariffs and Comparative Advantage14:45 - Canada's Response to the Wildfires in LA18:12 - Governor Trudeau and Manifest Destiny23:06 - Justin Trudeau's Legacy and Biggest Regret26:50 - Identity Politics30:40 - Predicting the Election Outcome32:35 - Does the Israel-Hamas Peace Agreement Have Legs?36:30 - The Trump Oligarchy37:40 - Zelensky's Dealmaking with Trump39:42 - Other Potential Geopolitical Hot Spots in 2025 For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Episode 60 is dominated by recent events in Ottawa, a period Frank describes as the most chaotic in his lifetime. Frank first dissects the decision by Chrystia Freeland to resign from her post as Minister of Finance prior to delivering the Liberal Government's Fall Economic Statement. He then provides an update on next steps for the Liberal Party including his expectation that Prime Minister Trudeau will resign, perhaps after his own walk in the snow. Next it is on to the important task at hand, that is preparing to confront President Elect Trump's tariff threats, a topic Frank discussed with Canada's Premiers at precisely the same time Freeland resigned. The discussion then moves to international affairs, including budget issues in Europe and South Korea, as well as the warp speed of events in Syria and the rest of the Middle East. The discussion finishes in the same place it always does, with both Frank and Peter bemoaning the state of their beloved Toronto Blue Jays. This podcast was recorded on December 17, 2024.Chapter Headings 00:50 - Freeland's Shock Resignation07:58 - Next Steps for Trudeau's Government12:28 - Framing Canada's Response to Trump's Tariffs24:50 - Democracy in South Korea27:23 - The End of Assad's Reign of Terror in Syria For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Frank is back from a vacation in the Far East, and he is fired up to talk about the US Election and its implications for global geopolitics. We cover Trump's controversial cabinet picks. Frank is supportive of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, and Rubio will have his hands full with very active global hot spots in Russia, China, and the Middle East. The conversation ends with the new US Administration's implications on Canada, including whether Canada and the USMCA will be on the inside or outside of Trump's proposed tariff wall, and timing for a Canadian election. This podcast was recorded on November 21, 2024. Chapter Headings 1:00 – Frank's Unique Take on the Election Result5:07 - Handicapping Complex Senate Confirmations12:16 - Elon Musk's New Role Running DOGE, the Department not the Coin17:52  – Comparing Cabinet Appointment Process in US vs Parliamentary System20:07 – Are We Nearing the End Game in Russia?28:16 - The Future of USMCA and Relationship with Mexico31:47 - The Latest on Timing for a Canadian Election For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this special edition of Geopolitics, we check in on a post-election panel discussion at the 25th Annual TD Securities Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference.  With Frank Mckenna out of the country, Geopolitics host Peter Haynes is  joined by The Honorable Rona Ambrose, Deputy Chairwoman of TD Securities and Chris Krueger, Geopolitics Expert at TD Cowen's The Washington Research Group to discuss the surprising US Election results and its implications for Canada-US relations.    Rona also takes time to discuss the political backdrop in Canada and potential for an election north of the border in the next few months. Chapter Headings: 1:00 – The Outstanding Races – When Will They Be Decided?4:30 – Rona's Biggest Surprise10:10 – The Future of USMCA and Canada's Minerals and Water15:55 – Trump's Potential Cabinet Appointments23:10 – Tariffs, Immigration and Ukraine29:00 – The 411 on Pierre Poilievre36:40 – Key Dates Until Inauguration For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In Episode 57, Frank invites Chris Krueger, TD Cowen's Washington politics expert, to the podcast to discuss the upcoming November 5th US Election and key factors that will determine who wins the Presidential race.  Frank explains the importance of the election outcome to Canada, noting that if Trump is true to his word (and there is no reason to doubt him), then a Republican victory would lead to a weakening (if not outright end) of multilateralism globally. While the USMCA might survive, the threat of unilateral tariffs will overhang Canada-US relations for the duration of the next Administration. We discuss down ballet Congressional votes, which according to both Frank and Chris are likely to lead to a split Congress. Chris also weighs in on the risk of outlier events disrupting the peaceful transition of power. We wrap up with Frank's take on the Federal Liberal Caucus revolt, and the likelihood that Prime Minister Trudeau stays on through the next election in Canada, especially considering incumbent defeats in provincial elections from coast to coast. Chapter Headings: 0:55 - Is the US Election the Most Consequential in History?2:11 - Key Variables that Will Decide the Outcome8:58 - USMCA – Threat of Unilateral Sanctions from a Trump Administration14:07 - Will the Prime Minister Push Biden to Resolve Softwood Lumber Dispute?16:50 - Risk of Outlier Events Disrupting Peaceful Transition of Power27:02 - Trump Tax Breaks and Debt Ceiling33:19 - Placing Bets on the Winner36:28 - Liberal Caucus Revolt and Likelihood Trudeau Stays on Through Next Election For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Episode 56 is a mostly Made in Canada geopolitical discussion. Frank covers the NDP decision to end its supply and confidence agreement with Prime Minister Trudeau and his Liberal Party, leading to speculation of a snap election soon in Canada.  Frank handicaps the three provincial elections in Canada in October in BC, Saskatchewan and his home province of New Brunswick where it is a close race dictated by regional differences in voter preferences.  As two months have passed without a decision by Trudeau to step down, it appears to Frank like the Prime Minister will stay on to lead the Liberals through the next election.  Frank puts concern over border security in Quebec in perspective as minor in comparison to the southern border of the US and then finishes the conversation with US election predictions and a discussion on the disturbing escalation in tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Chapter Headings 00:46 - NDP Ends Supply and Confidence – What is its Calculus?03:35 - Tick Tock – Time Passes and Trudeau is Still Leader07:52 - Handicapping Three Provincial Elections in October13:27 - Frank Meets Liberal Cabinet on CAD-US Relations – Takeaways18:30 - Border Security – Quebec-New York State24:22 - Canada's Obsessions with US Politics – Is it Unhealthy?26:38 - 40 Days Until the US Election31:49 - Israel's Pre-Emptive Strike on Hezbollah For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In Episode 55, Frank discusses Ukrainian tactics in its war with Russia, suggesting that the incursion into Russian territory and recent drone attacks are more than just bargaining chips.  Crossing back to North America, we discuss the on-going love in with the Harris-Walz ticket, and the importance of Trump vs Harris on September 10.  Frank downplays the significance of an RFK Jr defection to Trump's camp as it remains unclear whether the existence of RFK Jr as a third-party candidate helps or hurts the Republicans.  Before we finish with our proverbial critique of the Jays, Frank offers his thoughts on the importance of public-private partnerships in fixing Canada's aging infrastructure. Chapter Headings 05:22 - Ukraine's Aggressive Move into Russia11:14 - Democrats Control the News Cycle18:24 - Is RFK Important to Trump?23:57 - Trudeau's Calculus28:20 - How to Fix Canada's Aging Infrastructure This podcast was recorded on August 21, 2024 For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Who says the summer is boring?  In Episode 54, Frank admits there is not enough time in the day to keep up with the current geopolitical landscape.  After a brief history of Frank's storied career, this month's discussion moves quickly to President Biden's decision to not seek re-election, the rise of Kamala Harris and her candidates for running mate and then pivots to Trump, Trump 2.0 (JD Vance), the assassination attempt and the Florida judge's decision to throw out the document's case on a technicality.  We then switch gears to Canada where Frank offers his thoughts on the parallels between Biden's decision to not seek a second term and Prime Minister Trudeau's current dismal showing at the polls, suggesting that a decision on Trudeau's future will be made soon if he plans to end his run in 2025.  We ended with a question about the possibility the new UK government will revisit Brexit, a decision Frank suggests ranks in the top 3 worst political decisions of the last half century. On the topic of separation votes, Frank discusses how he mobilized citizens of New Brunswick to join a rally in Montreal ahead of the Quebec separation vote in 1995, one of his prouder, yet nerve-racking moments as Premier.  Chapter Headings: 00:30 - Frank's Storied Career05:33 - The End of President Biden17:44 - Trump's Eventful Two Weeks23:42 - The Biden-Trudeau Parallels31:28 - Will the New Starmer Government in the UK Revisit Brexit?36:24 - Mobilizing the Citizens of New Brunswick in 1995 to Save Canada For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Episode 53 is all about elections.  Frank first covers the upcoming twin bill of elections on the other side of the Atlantic starring the French and English. The former coming as quite a surprise to the market, and the latter appearing to be a foregone conclusion, with the only item left to decide being the future of the UK Conservative Party which is expected to be obliterated at the polls on July 4.  In France, Frank questions President Macron's calculus for calling a surprise summer election.  Believing he could be holding together a centrist coalition while being threatened on both flanks, with the right-wing National Rally party occupying first place in polling, and a left-wing coalition also leading the incumbent government.  We then move on to discuss two recent important elections. First, Mexico and the success of out-going leader AMLO's hand-picked successor Claudia Sheinbaum, who bucked the global trend of incumbent government disruption in other elections.  Then we discuss President Modi's inability to garner a majority victory in India despite having tailwinds, including a powerful social media campaign.  Finally, Frank offers his opinion on the importance of the US Presidential debates, and Trump's never-ending Apprentice-like search for his November running mate. Chapter Headings: 03:08 - Bank of Canada Rate Decision06:18 - Frank's Hot Button Topics: Elections and Capital Gains09:21 - Macron's Gambit15:10 - Starmer's Steamroll in the UK18:02 - Future of the Conservative Party22:48 - AMLO's Protégé in Mexico28:16 - Reining in Modi in India33:13 - Importance of US Election Debates and Trump Running Mate This podcast was recorded on June 18, 2024. For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Episode 52 takes us on a journey across several continents and covers a wide spectrum of topics. After remembering the legacy of his good friend and New Brunswick business icon Arthur Irving, who passed away recently, Frank covers the Sunak government's decision to call an early election in the U.K. and the trend toward authoritarian governments around the world, calling it a cyclical rather than secular trend. Frank checks in on new Argentine President Javier Milei's efforts to reduce the size of government and services in order to improve its financial position, a process that is complicated and requires compromise. He tells the U.S. Senators complaining to Trudeau about Canadian defense spending to stand down as the country's defense spending is moving in the right direction. Finally, he covers the U.S. election and suggests that despite his likely guilty verdict, Trump's opposition ought to change the narrative from "Trump is bad" to "Trump is going to get off". Chapters00:37 – Canada Loses Another Business Icon Arthur Irving05:36 – Sunak's Surprise UK Election Call12:03 – Is the Move to Authoritarian Leaders a Secular or Cyclical Change?15:04 – Checking in on Argentina's President Javier Milei20:34 – Bi-Partisan Letter From Senators to Trudeau on Defense Spending24:39 – Trump the Martyr This podcast was recorded on May 24, 2024. For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

n Episode 51, we circle back to Canada and focus on some of the key issues impacting our beautiful country.  After a quick discussion on the apparent de-escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel, which Frank is hopeful is permanent, we spend most of the podcast on budget related matters.  Frank discusses the government's calculus in choosing to increase inclusion rates on capital gains over a windfall tax on food or energy companies, and then applauds the government's decision to appoint Stephen Poloz to work with Canadian pension funds on investment opportunities domestically.  He then breaks down the budget's $8.5 billion dollar commitment to housing and its increase in defense spending, a move that was greeted with applause by other NATO members, including the US.  He finishes the podcast lamenting the government's failed messaging on its carbon tax and rebate program.  On a positive note, Frank shows some in-season love to the Blue Jays for perhaps the first time in modern history. This podcast was recorded on April 22, 2024. Chapter Headings 0:52 - De-escalation in Middle East8:22 - Ottawa Chooses Capital Gains over a Windfall Tax on Food or Energy17:20 - Poloz on Pension Funds25:00 - Canada Moving Closer to its 2% of GDP Target for Defense Spending28:03 - Are We Spending Enough on Housing?32:13 - The Failed Messaging for Canada's Carbon Tax and Rebate System For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.