The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

It’s that time of year again.What’s going to happen? What does the future hold?We all want to know. Knowing what’s going to happen makes you feel better.NostreDominic is here to tell you.Here are 19 predictions for 20261. Gold Breaks $5,000Gold doesn’t quite have the year it had in 2025, but it has a good year nonetheless and rises above $5,000/ozOn which note: Charlie Morris’s monthly gold report, Atlas Pulse is, in my view, the best gold newsletter out there. Get your copy here. No pay nada.2. S&P 500 FrustrationThe S&P500 will spend much of 2026 in a frustrating range trade with a couple of nasty pullbacks. We see an interim peak in April-May, followed by a weak summer, but a strong final quarter means we end the year with a 10-15% gain.The problem of disproportionately few stocks (41 is it?) being responsible for most of the gains remains.3. Inflation Finds New FormsInflation doesn’t die, it mutates. Headline inflation looks reasonably controlled (by recent standards), enabling leaders to declare that it is controlled or some other BS. Despite this “victory”, inflation finds other ways to rob you.4. Bitcoin Hits $150,000Bitcoin has a good year. With escalating geo-political conflict, as well as capital controls and tax grabs, more and more people wake up to the value of permissionless, apolitical currency. Falling trust in fiat - never mind government institutions - becomes more culturally entrenched. Bitcoin goes to $150,000.5. Starmer Survives (Just)Prime Minister Keir Starmer manages another year. His position gets even more precarious after a bad showing in the May local elections, but it is still only 2026 and the next General Election is not till 2029. Too early to oust him just yet.6. Government Spending: The Unstoppable ForceGovernment spending keeps on increasing. Even if they wanted to, they just can’t stop it. Western Europe continues, therefore, its great march on the road to serfdom7. But No Sovereign Debt CrisisDespite the mathematics verging on the impossible, government debt continues to outpace GDP (it has grown at three times the pace this century) but the inevitable sovereign debt crisis that is coming to the UK, Western Europe and perhaps even the US, is somehow averted.By saying it won’t happen, it will happen. I know it.8. British Stocks Shine Despite Economic StagnationBritain’s economy continues to stagnate, but British stocks do well. Rather like Japan circa 2015, the valuations are so cheap that mergers and acquisitions are inevitable. Foreign money takes advantage.9. Oil RecoversOil, currently lagging metals, begins to turn around. Brent crude stays above $55 and flirts with $80 a barrel.10. UK Energy Costs Stay ElevatedEnergy costs in the UK remain high because Millibrain. Limited growth is the result.If you live in a Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound is going to be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.11. Critical Minerals BoomI would venture that the decision to overthrow Venezuelan President Maduro was as much about critical minerals - so-called strategic metals et al - and China’s chokehold on them, as it was oil and gas, narco-terrorism, Russian drones and liberating the poor suffering people.To the US’s credit it is trying to put the China chokehold problem right. The UK and Europe are hopeless. But this process, especially re-shoring industry, is highly inflationary, hence my comment about inflation finding new forms.It is a good year to be invested in both industrial and critical minerals, and the related stocks end the year considerably higher than when they began.This is something I’ll be looking at a lot next year12. Emerging Markets RallyEmerging markets have a good year. Commodities, innit.13. The Pound Weakens A BitThe pound gradually weakens against the US dollar. High is $1.37, low is $1.25. Or thereabouts.14. Silver. Triple Digits.Silver goes above $100. There I’ve said it. Now watch it crash.15. AI-Powered Government OverreachA highly worrying development. Government Blob bodies, such as Ofcom and HMRC in the UK (though this problem is global), make increasing use of AI to make their processes more efficient. This enables them in a really bad way.This is already happening. In 2026 people start to wake up to the fact.I like AI. But it enables Big Bureaucracy. Beware.16. UK Property: More Stagnation The stagnation, particularly at the upper end of the market, continues. And why wouldn’t it? Moving is too expensive.While nominal prices might be flat or slightly up, real prices are down, liquidity is poor, transactions fall.17. Rents Stay ElevatedBecause so many now prefer to rent so they don’t have to pay moving taxes, and because the game is now over for amateur landlords, who continue to exit the market due to the increased cost of regulations, rents stay elevated.18. Official Reassurance = The Biggest MistakeThe biggest mistake of 2026, as with every year, will be trusting official reassurance. Governments and central banks remain behind the curve. Markets lead, policymakers follow. The crisis won’t come from what they warn us about, but from something they’ve missed.19. Your Bruce-y Bonus Sports PredictionArsenal win the League. West Ham, Burnley and Wolves all get relegated.Have a wonderful 2026. Let’s hope as with last year I’m wrong about everything and we make a potload of dosh. Until next time Dominic This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Happy New Year to you.This time last year I did something I’d never done before, which was to publish my New Year’s resolutions.I was nervous about doing it because, despite constantly putting stuff out on the internet, I’m actually quite private about some things, and it made me feel quite vulnerable publishing them.However, publicly stating goals pushes you to achieve them. You’re making yourself accountable, so you’re more likely to deliver. It also clarifies what you’re actually looking for, and solidifies goals beyond abstract ideas. It can also prompt those reading them to help in some way, whether through advice, introductions or collaboration.I’m glad I did it, and I’m sure it helped me achieve a lot of those goals.Here they are, in case of interest:The health, body and mind stuff I pretty much succeeded at - I stayed fit, I drank even less (to the point of barely drinking at all), my fasting fell by the wayside and so my weight has crept up a little. I hit my reading target - just - though really I should read a lot more.Money was also a goal hit with gold, silver and most Flying Frisby tips all performing well (though let’s be honest last year was a bonanza year for pretty much everyone except bitcoin maximalists).On the love and family side of things, I think I did ok - you’ll have to ask my kids and mother if I have been a good father/son. My other big target of settling down with a certain Miss Downing was an abject failure, which is probably for the best all things considered, and I am grateful to my Guardian Angel for stepping in there.On the work and career front I should consider the year a success. The live shows were brilliant, sold out, we have a lot of dates in for the spring. The book has also done well. It’s coming out in the US next year.Above all I have got Kisses on a Postcard moving forward, which was the most important target of the year.The two big failures were that I didn’t finish two writing projects I had in mind - my Gilbert and Sullivan and Peasants Revolt musicals - nor did I do many gigs in the US or practice my uke every day, but I probably asked a bit too much of myself.All in all I should consider 2025 an annus perhaps not quite mirabilis, but certainly bonus, prosperus, felix et secundus - and be very grateful for itSo what are my goals this year?They’re not unlike last year.Love and Family* Be a good dad to Samuel, Eliza, Lola and Ferdie, and to daughter-in-law, Millie.* Be a good grandad to Cecilia.* Be a good son to my mum.* Get a girlfriend.Kisses on a Postcard* Get the script as good as it can possibly be (happening as we speak).* Get a s**t hot director and cast* Raise 10 million quid* Shoot the next great musical.Easy!MoneySame as last year. Invest well and grow my net worth - and the net worth of Flying Frisby readers - by at least 20%. I beat that by some margin in 2025 in what, looking back, was a gift of a year thanks to gold, silver and the miners.If you live in the Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound is going to be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Hard to see things being as easy in 2026, but I’ve got my eye on a few things. I will keep you very much in the loop.You know you should.Work & Career - Laughter, Acclaim, Opportunity* Grow the Flying Frisby by 20% in subscribers and revenue. Break into the Top 50. (Currently 60th)* Comedy - keep storming the gigs, land more tour dates in bigger venues selling more tickets* Promote The Secret History of Gold really well in the US when it launches in May* Build my online presence as both comic and commentator - I’ve got a specific plan for this* Keep writing songs and material, get better at the uke and make a start on guitarHealth, Body & MindI’m 76kg (12 stone/167lb). My weight has crept up these last few months, mainly since my habit of fasting has fallen by the wayside. I hit 67kg (10 ½ stone, 147lb) at one point in 2024 leading to several interventions from friends telling me I looked like a lesbian Gary Lineker. Maybe. But I felt great. I reckon my ideal weight is 72kg (11st 7, 160lb). So get there and stay there. Which means:* Fasting more regularly* Weights two or three times a week* Something aerobic two or three times a week* Daily stretching - dead hangs, pelvic floors, neck exercises* Stay off the booze* Eat more protein and starve that sweet tooth* Play more racket sports (good for the brain apparently). More tennis and table tennis, get into padel and pickleball.PLUS* Morning breathing practice and regular meditation/prayer* Read another 15 booksWish me luck!What about you - what are your goals for the year? Stick them in the comments if you fancy making yourself accountable tooIn the meantime, let me wish you a happy, healthy and prosperous 2026.I’ll be back mid-week with my annual predictions piece.Until next time,DominicPS I was planning to take Christmas and New Year off. Never mind.PPS The tax loss trade is now positioned and ready to go. Take a look. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Good Sunday to you, Before we begin, let me flag this week’s commentary. This a trade with a remarkably successful hit rate, a clear timescale and a relatively easy risk to manage - you know pretty quickly if it isn’t working. 8 of last year’s 9 ideas worked. By my reckoning you will find the biggest bargains of the year tomorrow, Monday December 22, and Tuesday December 23. So take a look: Right, so today I am marking my own homework.Every year, as old timer’s will know, I like to offer some predictions for the year ahead - usually 10, but with inflation being what it is, it ends up higher. Today we look back and see how I did. The usual disclaimers apply - the more outlandish the prediction, the more entertaining - so the more likely I am to make it. But the less likely it is to actually happen. I try to strike a balance …As events change, so do opinions. Process is gradual. But when you jump a year, with no scope to revise as events turn in a different direction, quoted out of context and with the benefit of hindsight, predictions can look really, really stupid. Don’t judge me, bro.I often find that the worse my predictions, the better my portfolio performs, which is odd, but there you go.If you want to read last year’s piece in full, it’s here. But I’ll quote quite copiously below.A reminder of the scoring system: 2 points for a direct hit, 1 for a quite good, 0 for a miss, and -1 for an epic fail, giving me a maximum of 30 and a minimum of -10. How did I do? Let’s find out. 1. The long overdue correction in the UK housing market finally begins.You can read my reasoning here, but it boiled down to: richer people being net sellers as they leave the UK, few foreign buyers, fewer buyers more generally because of high moving costs (Stamp Duty etc), little bullish sentiment in the economy meaning a reluctance to borrow and invest and the 18-year-property cycle turning down.What actually happened is by no means clearcut, but I’ll try and summarise.Price growth and transaction volume were relatively high in the first 3 months, until Stamp Duty changes came into effect in April, after which the market became “subdued”. Overall, the north saw some increase, while London fell 2.4% in the year to October. Average growth was 1.7%, which is some 2% below official inflation rates - real inflation is of course much higher - meaning there have been price falls in real terms. This is even with the Bank of England bringing rates down, thereby enabling more money to enter the market via increased borrowing.Overall, transactions volumes increased by 9% on 2024, to get back in line with the 10-year average, though there is a very different story at the upper end of the market.The housing market has big problems, especially in the south, but it hasn’t cratered - though nor has it soared. I’m giving myself 1 point. 2. Keir Starmer survivesEveryone thought he was toast this time last year - and he is - but my argument that “it’s too early for Labour MPs, worrying about their seats, to give him the shove” prevailed. 2 points. 3. Gold hits $3,000.And the rest. It’s $4,300 as I write and going higher. I was too conservative. 1 point. BTW. If you live in a Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound is going to be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.4. Microstrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) becomes a top 100 company by market cap.Oops. When Strategy hit $450 in July, its market cap would have been around $130 billion, making it perhaps a top 300 company but not a top 100. It would have needed to get above about $250 billion to make the cut. And since then it has the skids so badly it’s now a tax loss opportunity.-1.5. Bitcoin goes to $200,000 then crashesI got the crash bit right. Sort of. $126k was the high, having begun the year at $91k. Today it’s $88k. 0 points.6. Sterling has big problemsNope. It’s had a good year. -1.7. X thrives, Blue Sky dies, Blogging Blue SkiesWell sort of. X saw strong numbers growth in the first part of the year, but these have tailed off. It is now a key place to go for breaking news and a leading news app, but by no means the Governor. The exodus to Blue Sky has slowed, but BS (LOL) is still growing albeit at a much slower rate. Blogging, as evidenced by Substack, is thriving. I’ll give myself 1 point.8. The S&P500 Rises 10%15% actually. We predicted a decent year, despite year 1 of the electoral cycle tending to be the weakest. 1 point. Do I get 2? Nah.9. Oil ranges.Oil would neither crater nor moonshot, we argued. We saw a range of $60-90. Its actually been $55-80. 1 point.10. Small Caps ThriveThe Russell 2000 has had a good year - rising 12% - but the large caps are still winning. 1 point.11. The US Dollar Index breaks out to 20-year highs. Oops. I was looking for a high around 117 in the US$ index. It didn’t get above 110. It fell! -112. The BRICS don’t come out with a proper US dollar alternative … yetEveryone says it’s coming, but it never actually does. 2 points.13. Silver disappoints … as always$33 is the high, $22 the low, I said. Ha! $28 was the low, and the high - $68. To be fair to myself, I said multiple times it was going to $50 and if it gets above there it goes to $90+, but the call was still an epic fail. Irony: silver has been a huge winner for readers this year and our pick, Sierra Madre Gold and Silver (SM.V), has been a joy to own. From 45c north of $1.50 :(I still get -1 though.14. Despite all the crap, the world becomes a better place to live.We live longer, we eat better, tech keeps improving things. We advance. AI makes us more productive and betters living standards.It’s so obvious I can’t believe I even said it. I’ll give myself a point, but not 2.15. Your Bruce-y bonus sports prediction.Liverpool win the league. Ipswich, Southampton, and Leicester all go down.Bullseye. I should take up sports betting. 2 points.I don’t actually follow football any more, but one of my son’s told me that’s what would happen.So, overall, a very poor showing for the DF Predictions, possibly my poorest year ever: totalling a measly 7 points.And, as always seems to be case, a much better year for my portfolio of companies. Here’s hoping I get all next year’s predictions similarly wrong.I’ll be making those early next year - so look out for that.Thank you so much for being a subscriber to the Flying Frisby. I wish you and your family a very happy Christmas. Don’t eat too much, go easy on the booze, pray, sing, get plenty of exercise, avoid toxic people and the lurgy, and be thankful for the many good things there are in your life.Once again - I urge you to take a look at the tax loss opportunities. Tomorrow and Tuesday are the buy days.Here’s to a healthy, wealthy 2025. Until next time,DominicPS This Wednesday being Christmas Eve I almost certainly won’t be putting out any commentary. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

I was having breakfast with my son, daughter-in-law and grand child earlier in the week. He is 25, she is 24, and baby is 5 weeks old.They’re both pretty successful in their jobs - both in sales, on commission, so very much performance-based - and they both work very hard. They are ambitious. They want a big house with a big family, and plenty of money to live off. Pretty normal ambitions, really, and once upon a time not so impossible to achieve.I’m extremely proud of them both for having gone against the grain and had their first child so young. I’m also proud of how they have both adapted to parenthood. They live with me, so I see every day how utterly devoted they are, how much effort they put in, how they are learning and flourishing. The way Millie has thrown herself into motherhood and totally dedicated herself to her child is a thing to behold. Breast feeding on demand, everything. It really is a joy to see.Because they’ve started a family young, there is a very real chance they will go on to have a very big family. They both say that is what they want. My son, Samuel, has now gone back to work, while Millie is on maternity leave. But having both made several successful deals, and with a backlog of outstanding commission coming payable too, they found themselves between them paying £26,000 of taxes last month - 50% of the £53,000 they earned was taken, when you factor in the student loans they have to repay. (They might get some of that back at the end of the year).To earn that kind of money in a month at such a young age is just brilliant - I see how hard both of them work, the hours they put in, early morning after early morning, late night after late night, the persistence - and I’m proud of them. It is not easy. None of their university colleagues are doing anything like as well, at least in financial terms.With the bonanza month they both had, they could have paid off significant chunks of their student loans. But no such luck. The tax man cometh first.Meanwhile, they are so far from being able to buy a house for their young family - not just in the area they grew up, but anywhere in Greater London - it’s a joke. I like having them live with me, don’t get me wrong, but the fact that even a couple as successful as this are miles away from owning a property of reasonable enough size to start a family makes my blood boil.We live in a Victorian terraced house in South London that was built 150 years ago for a working-class man and his family. Yet a working-class man could never afford to buy this house now, even though it’s 150 years old - never mind the highest-earning couple in their peer group.The most commonly given reason why people do not have bigger families earlier in life is expense. And what is the greatest expense in your life? Altogether now, “your government”. By far and away. Lower that expense and people will have bigger families again, earlier in life. (Even the cost of housing itself - the second biggest expense in a typical life - would come down with less government - less planning permission, less building regulation, less market intervention for political ends, less fiat and so on).Quite a few of the houses in our street are owned by the council. An old lady who lived in one of them recently died, and her house was given to a Somali family. So the taxes that Samuel and Millie are paying, and would like to have been able to use towards their own family, are being used to house another family not just from another country, but another continent never mind another culture. I’ve no doubt their needs are great. They get the house they need. We pay. How many more families not from the UK are we expected to sponsor - and delay/minimize our own procreation for?We are literally taxing our own to enable to the procreation of others. As I say in the title, we are taxing ourselves into oblivion.“Have you ever known taxes to actually go down?” My son asked me.“Well,” I said. “They came down a bit in 1980s under Thatcher”.It might feel relatively recent to me, but that was a good 15 years - half a generation - before my son was born in 2000. And even under Thatcher and Reagan, it’s worth remembering, the state actually grew.The state continued to grow in the 90s and 00s, and, by the time you factor in all the various stealth taxes that got introduced, not least fiscal drag - perhaps the most odious of the lot - as well as currency debasement, so did taxes.Now, because of fiscal drag, you see teachers paying higher rates of Income Tax. It’s not in any way exceptional in London to earn more than 50 grand. You haven’t got a hope of having any kind of lifestyle, if you don’t. I dread to think how many Londoners - those that work hard at least - are paying higher rates of tax. And for what?What chance do these people have of buying a home and starting a family?And all this money is being taken to spent on what, exactly? Not potholes, that’s for sure.I think the question my son was really asking was, “Is there any chance taxes come down?”Well, if you look at Britain since World War II - actually since World War I - the growth in the state has been relentless and inexorable. So the rise in taxes we must pay has been inexorable. I’m not just talking about Income Tax. As I say, I’m talking about all the stealth taxes and debasement of currency as well. Is there any realistic chance they’ll come down? Liz Truss only tried to slash government spending by two and a half percent. And look what that did.It’s incredible to think that at the turn of the 20th century taxation - or the state - amounted to less than 10% of GDP.Even if Reform were to win the next election, how would they realistically cut state spending by more than a couple or three percent? The institutional resistance - the blob, the civil service, the quangos, the media - would fight them at every turn. In short, taxes are unlikely to come down by anything meaningful.We cannot get this country purged until the currency collapses. That’s the only way I see it happening. It’s very sad. If you live in a Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound is going to be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.My son, who is not particularly political, observes the absurdity of it: many people who build wealth, the most productive and talented, are leaving because of high taxes, and we replace net contributors with net takers. The country is systematically driving away the people who create value while importing those who consume it. It’s economic suicide by design.As readers of Daylight Robbery will know, I regard taxation as the best measure of freedom there is. The more heavily taxed societies - where obviously there is limited economic freedom - tend to be the societies where there is limited freedom of speech, freedom of movement, freedom of thought, freedom to experiment and all the rest of it.Freedom of movement in the UK is limited by the cost of movement - whether it’s transport costs, petrol costs, Stamp Duty, fines, charges, new mileage taxes - all reduce movement. They’re all a tax. There might not be laws preventing movement in the way there once were if you were, say, a serf, but taxes give you a similar outcome. They restrict movement - and thus possibility - because people cannot afford to move.You don’t need me to demonstrate how freedom of both thought and speech are being attacked. The two-tier justice system sees people committing violent crimes getting released early - indeed often not even getting convicted - while people who just said words get locked up.I’m sorry to say it, but I don’t think even Farage and Reform can turn this one around, particularly when Farage is watering a lot of his policies down in order to give the media less to smear him with, and make himself more electorally palatable. Starmer did something not so totally dissimilar.And if something should happen to Farage, what then? What would Reform be without him? I like Richard Tice a lot, but there is not exactly a huge queue of people waiting to fill Farage’s boots.Tell someone about this great article.So I come back to my point that I’ve made on these pages many times. If you are young and wanting to build a good life for yourself, and you want to be rewarded for the hard work you put in, your chance of doing that in the UK is limited. You’re best off going somewhere else. Sorry to sound negative. There are many things to be positive about in this world, but the future of taxation and freedom in the UK is not one of them.Remember the golden rule of Daylight Robbery: fix taxation, everything else follows.But there is no sign of us doing that.Until next time,DominicICYMI, here is this week’s commentary - also prepping for the North American tax loss trade.And, finally, I appeared on the mighty Tom Woods Show this week. I love Tom, and he is fast becoming one of my best buddies. Here are links to the interview on Apple podcasts, Spotify and YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comBefore we come to the main thrust of today’s piece, there is something I need to flag. We are just coming into North American tax loss selling season, and a number of you have asked if I will be putting together a portfolio of tax loss trades this year.The answer is, “maybe”.I’m not sure how well it will work this year for reasons you are about to find out, but it’s something I am still considering, and I will I try to have a list of options for next week’s missive. By my reckoning the dates when you’ll find the biggest bargains this year will be Friday December 19, Monday December 22 and Tuesday December 23, though the window stretches from next week all the way to New Year’s Eve.What am I talking about?At the end of the year in the US and Canada, investors (both retail and institutions) sell their worst performing stocks in order to realise losses to offset against gains elsewhere in order to reduce their tax bill.This selling tends to climax in the last two or three days of trading before Christmas and it means badly performing stocks, particularly illiquid ones, get way oversold only to experience something of a rally in the first few weeks of the following year as the selling dissipates.So the trade is simple: buy as the selling climaxes and then flip sometime in February (my Canadian broker says March and last year this proved very true).Nothing is guaranteed in this cruel world (except the further debasement of your national currency), but it is a trade with a remarkably successful hit rate, and a clear timescale. It also becomes apparent pretty quickly if it isn’t working, enabling you to exit any losers early.If you live in a Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound is going to be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.By all means go back and audit me, but last year I believe 8 of the 9 ideas worked.Some picks work better than others. Some years work better than others, but gains of 20-50%, even doubles sometimes, are not uncommon. The trade works particularly well in smallcap Canadian resource stocks, as, when they are bad, they are really bad, and can get hugely oversold. However, this year Canadian resource stocks, particularly gold and silver miners, have had a bonanza year, so there won’t be much tax selling there. In fact, markets more generally have been strong, so there is not the normal flood of dogs to be sold. However, I have some ideas. Crypto Treasury Companies, for example, could be big winners because of the huge losses they have generated. So keep an eye out and I will try and have something for you this time next week. Be ready to move quickly, as well, so have some cash to play with.Right. Changing the subject. Why both legal and illegal immigration is set to increase I can’t go online now without seeing something about uncontrolled immigration. Yesterday saw the sentencing of two Afghan 17 year olds for raping a 15-year-old girl in Leamington Spa. (Spoiler: they weren’t 17. They’ve lied about their age, on that I’ll bet the house. Not that anyone in authority will have noticed). And it’s not just online, it’s in the world around me. I live in south London, so I see it all the time. I travel a lot around the country doing gigs and the changing demographics of the UK are everywhere, even in the remotest parts of the country. I think a little bit of immigration is a good thing, but this is happening too fast and on too big a scale.When a business messes up badly, it goes bust and another, better run business comes along and does the job better. When a state body messes up badly, a load more money gets spent on an inquiry - in the case of the rape gangs £65 million - usually headed by a Blob insider (in this case Starmer appointed peer Baroness Anne Longfield). The mess gets whitewashed as much by time as anything, and the state body continues as before, dysfunctional as ever, if not more so.Unlike those operating in a free market, the state as it currently functions, is incapable of reacting to the new realities of the world around us. There are more people than ever before in the world, and more of them than ever are on the move. Thanks to better planes, trains, boats and cars, they are able to move further and faster than ever before. Thanks to smart phones, which over 90% of the world’s adult population now has, better information about how and where to go gets spread. Smart phones also create FOMO - you gaze at the life you could have - so there is more desire to move than ever before. And the fact that 3 billion people earn less than $40/day means there is a greater urge to move than ever. This is the reality of the world in which we live. It is patently obvious mass migration of people is going to increase. And yet the British government, nor most Western governments, have no plan in place to deal with it all. They can’t even deal with current levels of migration, let alone illegal migration or future migration. There has been no debate or agreement on what the right levels of migration should actually be. With no clarity, policy is, inevitably, both incoherent and inadequate. Promises by every government since Cameron’s coalition have been broken. The courts and legal system were designed for a different people in a different age and are no longer fit for purpose. This all assumes, of course, government could actually lower migration levels if it wanted, which I don’t believe it actually can because of sheer weight of numbers. Thanks to the ECHR and a general unwillingness within the Blob to address this, there is not even the ability to properly tackle this issue anyway. State institutions and infrastructure - from roads to health to education to welfare - cannot cope with the increased numbers and are crumbling. Wealth creators are leaving to be replaced by net takers, resulting in an increased tax burden and eventual likely bankruptcy of the country. Trust has gone and we are accelerating along the road to ruin.Such repeated failure by a business over many years would result in the extinction of that business. But the state operates by a different set of rules, and the only thing that can end it is the destruction of the currency itself. Hence why I say own gold.So that’s where we are. Exploiting the end of Britain: blood money and crony capitalism You can rant and rail and make a noise. But I don’t see what you or anyone can actually do about it. A Reform majority at the next election is what many are pinning their hopes on, but a hung parliament looks more likely. Would even a runaway win for Reform at the next election change much? I doubt it, myself. There’s too much opposition within the system. Liz Truss only tried to slash government spending by 2.5% and look what happened there. As investors our job is not to pass moral judgement on the rights and wrongs of all this. Many think it’s a good thing the West gets destroyed! Our job is to navigate the waters as best we can. As you know I urge readers to own non- government currencies, money they can’t debase - gold and bitcoin. But having just said our job is not to pass moral judgement, I do pass moral judgement when I invest. I shouldn’t, but I do. I don’t buy government bonds, especially gilts, for example, because in doing so you enable government, when government is the problem. Starve the monster is my take. I’m also not participating in the trade I am about to outline here, because it would make me feel dirty. But the more ruthless of you will be fine with it, and you’ll get no flack from me. I hate getting ripped off at airports and train stations, so I have a bit of WH Smith in my portfolio as an offset. This is a little bit like that.There are companies making an absolute fortune from illegal migration. And while this situation continues, they are going to continue making money. Why shouldn’t you as well?Their customer, the government, is a bureaucrat spending somebody else’s money so will pay pretty much whatever. Demand for their services is only going to increase as migration increases. There is no competitive marketplace - you’re not having to compete with other hotels, for example. These companies are all paid by the government - you in other words - to provide facilities for asylum seekers. The contracts are juicy, and those bureaucrat fingers are fat with taxpayer cash. Here’s how to profit from illegal migration in the UK.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI found myself at a very VIP event last night at the home of a well-known politician. There was a heck of lot of money, age and experience in the room. I felt like I’d gone back in time to the City of the 1980s.I got talking to an old boy who, it turned out, had made his money in mining. He had worked at one point for the Hunt Brothers (who famously tried to corner the silver market in 1980). He had speculated in Australian’s Poseidon bubble (1969-70), one of the mothers of all speculative mining frenzies. He recalled a stock he had bought at 10c, offloading his final shares at A$120, only to watch it go to A$280. (50 years on, he was still cross with himself for selling too soon, even though it soon went all the way back to 10c).“Are we in a secular bull market for mining stocks now?” I asked him. He didn’t seem to think we are.“What about gold and silver?” “Silver’s at $53,” he smiled.“$58,” I corrected him.“$58!” he said. “Gosh. I must go home and sell the cutlery.”There was a photograph in a large silver frame on the sideboard. We discussed the merits of selling that.I tell this story for a reason. Bull markets like this one in silver do not come along very often. The old boy know that - and he knew what to do. Because silver bull markets don’t last forever.And when they end, they really end. You can make informed and educated guesses where the top will be. Getting out at the absolute top can be done but it requires so much good fortune that it is near impossible.In the Poseidon bubble, the old boy was selling on the way up, only to see his stock double and more again after he’d unloaded his final tranche. He made money. A lot of money. He didn’t make as much as he could have made - and is still, more than fifty years on, cross with himself.Yet he also didn’t lose anything when the bubble popped.Is that not more important?Yet, bizarre thing the human mind is, we seem to get more cross with ourselves for selling too early than we do for overstaying our welcome and riding the collapse all the way down.If you live in the Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound is going to be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.That amazing cup and handleSilver has now broken out of that incredible cup-and-handle formation that has been building since the 1970s. We have spoken about it before. The standard view is that, in a cup-and-handle pattern, the distance from the rim to the bottom of the cup will be your target to the upside. In this case, $3.50 was the low in the early 1990s. The distance from $50 to $3.50 is $46.50, giving us a target of $96 or thereabouts.$96.50 then. It could get there. I don’t say it will, but it could.You can argue that based on logarithmic charts and percentage falls, the targets should be even higher. I’ve read some as high as $700/oz. It’s possible. $50 in 1980 was a similarly elevated figure.

Good Sunday to you,A bit of admin before we come to today’s thought piece.First, in case you missed it, here is this week’s commentary, mostly ranting about the budget, the UK’s inept leadership and what actions you, as an investor, should take:And this week I also appeared on comedian Geoff Norcott’s podcast, What Most People Think. Here are the links to the show on Apple and Spotify, if of interest.But for your thought piece today, we have another great little World War Two gold story which didn’t make the cut. The farcical journey of Albanian and Italian gold (NB: a tonne of gold is about a medium-sized suitcase full).As the Nazis took both Austria and Czechoslovakia with ease, Italian Prime Minister Benito Mussolini grew anxious to flex his own muscles.Albania would be his target. Geographically, culturally and historically, it made sense: Albania had been part of the Roman Empire even before northern Italy.In April 1939, Italy invaded with a force that contained 400 planes, 300 small tanks, 12 warships, and 22,000 men. But some untrained Albanian locals with the help of a few soldiers managed to drive them back into the sea. Such was 20th century Italian warfare.The Italians made it on the second attempt, however, and the capital, Tirana, fell.The Albanian King Zog gave an impassioned speech on the radio, urging resistance, but nobody heard it because Albania at the time had fewer than 2,000 radios, and the Italians soon managed to jam the airwaves anyway. Shortly after giving the speech, like the true patriot he was, he fled the country, taking enough gold with him to lead a long life of luxury in exile, eventually ending up in Egypt as a guest of King Farouk, to whom he had to pay $20 million for refuge.Albania's founders believed in gold, and their currency, the lek, was based on it. Inflation, as a result, had been nonexistent. The central bank was established in the summer of 1925, and it had worked hard to build up its gold holdings. At home, it had encouraged citizens to swap their jewellery for paper money. That private gold was then added to the nation's gold holdings. Whenever possible, the country increased its gold holdings in London.But by the time of the invasion in 1939, most of Albania's 2.3 tonnes was in Italy anyway, where it had been sent for safekeeping. The Italians managed to confiscate quite a bit more in coins and jewellery from citizens.We fast forward four years.The Italian dilemma: give their gold to the Nazis or the Allies? In 1943, Allied forces moved north from Africa into Sicily and then Italy: the invasion of the soft underbelly of Europe had begun.Hectic days followed the ousting of Mussolini in July. The Italian Fascists were still nominally in charge. They declared Rome an open city in the hope of avoiding Allied air attacks. But by September 1943, the Nazis had control of the capital and central Italy, and they wanted Italy's gold moved to Berlin, while they still had control of the area.They began confiscating the gold of Italian citizens in Rome, especially Italian Jews. The amounts demanded were unrealistic, but Roman Jews reached into their family treasures, their synagogues and institutions to turn in what they had. The Pope, Pius XII, heard about the demands and authorised Catholic churches to lend Jews gold so they could reach the quota.But the big prize was in the Italian Central Bank, and several Nazi organisations had their eyes on it: Himmler's SS, Göring's Four Year Plan, von Ribbentrop's Foreign Office, and Funk's Reichsbank. Even the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), which was worried about its investments in Italy, started making demands that Italy send it gold. Initially, the governor of the Italian bank, Vincenzo Azzolini, made out that he was offended by the idea, but he soon realised the BIS was a better option than Berlin, whichever Nazi department received it.The Italians did not know what to do. On the one hand, they did not want the Nazis to have their gold, but nor did they want the invading Allies to have it either. They thought of sending it to Sardinia, they thought of sending it to the Swiss border. They sent small amounts of gold to branch offices around Italy, but the Bologna gold went missing, as did much of the Milan gold - now supposedly in Turin, but actually hidden in a well. They even sent some to colonial outposts in Benghazi, Rhodes and Addis Ababa.The Albanian gold Italy had stolen was still sitting in the Italian bank's vault, so, under pressure from the Nazis, they sent that up to the Reichsbank in Berlin, while they tried to come up with a solution.The following day, Niccolò Introna, the Italian bank's deputy general manager, had his plan: to build a false wall in the bank's underground vaults. He would then backdate documents to show the gold had been moved to Potenza, a town in the Italian south that was about to fall into Allied hands, but hide the gold behind the wall.Bank governor Azzolini approved the plan, but then ruled that only half the gold should be hidden. The next day the wall was built. The day after that, the official order to ship the gold to Berlin came in from the German ambassador. If the bank did not agree, the Germans would simply seize it. At this point, Azzolini learned that the Germans had seized government records, from which they would know the size and location of the country's gold. Azzolini lost his nerve and had the wall torn down.The next day, the German military unit arrived at the bank with orders to move the gold north by air. Azzolini stalled them, saying it would be safer by train. The Germans sent 5 tonnes by air, the rest - 119 tonnes - was sent by train to Milan. From there, it was shipped to Fortezza, Bolzano, close to the border with Germany and under their control, where it stayed for several months. The now-ousted Mussolini even signed his approval that it be sent there.The following spring, Azzolini, who above all wanted to stop the gold going to Berlin, struck a deal with Swiss and German representatives that would see 26 tonnes sent to Switzerland, some to the BIS and some to the Swiss National Bank.Göring, however, insisted he needed money and suggested giving Italy Reichsmarks for its gold. The deal was signed without the Bank of Italy knowing about it. 50 tonnes left Fortezza, which included 8 tonnes Italy had stolen from Yugoslavia earlier in the war in "restitution" (that’s another story). The delivery arrived in Berlin a tonne light. As almost always by this point in the war, someone had their hands in the till.The process of shipping the next batch of Italian gold - some 22 tonnes - went on for months, as some (but not all) Italian officials tried to stall. But eventually, that too was dispatched. That too arrived in Berlin a tonne light.When American forces eventually liberated Fortezza, they found 25 tonnes. It was handed over to the Bank of Italy.What a mess.Stories like this fill the pages of The Secret History of Gold (although this one didn’t actually make the cut).The Secret History of Gold is available at Amazon, Waterstones and all good bookshops. I hear the audiobook, read by me, is excellent. And it would make a wonderful Christmas present! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

There will be no growth in the UK.Chancellor Reeves’ budget was designed to placate left-wing back benchers, who want greater spending, and the bond markets. In that, it has succeeded. For now.The ever-shrinking part of the country that actually builds wealth (and remember there are only 3 ways to build real wealth: you grow stuff, you mine stuff or you make stuff. Everything else is just pushing it about) is being further taxed to pay for it all. There are now extra taxes on property, dividends and savings, while fiscal drag means more people will pay higher rates of income tax (closing in on 25% of workers by 2030, apparently), further diminishing their chances of improving their lot. Never mind the currency debasement of the money they are being paid in.Stealth taxes, such as fiscal drag, get my goat because they are so disingenuous. But perhaps of greater concern are doors which have been opened to new sources of taxation. The extra levy on high value properties, for example, has been set at £2,500 per year for properties in the £2-£5 million bracket, and £7,500 for properties above.A £2 million house in London is not some decadent billionaire plaything: it is often a mere terraced house built 150 years ago for an ordinary working man and his family.My friend, who is uber successful and very left wing, has an expensive house in Hampstead. She was actually happy about this tax, because she thought it was fair - and because she thought she was going to get hammered for higher taxes elsewhere. What she doesn’t realise is that this is just the beginning. The door is now open to further property taxes and the only way is up.What’s more, as currency gets debased, fiscal drag means more and more properties will fall into this category.Income Tax began as a tax only on higher earners. Within a few decades, ordinary workers were hit. Now they’re paying higher rates. These new property taxes will go the same way.Never mind that you bought the property with taxed income, and then paid stamp duty. It’s endless.Between that, landlord taxes, extra tenant protection, Section 24 and the plethora of petty regulation, the age of the small landlord in Britain is now over. Renting, like so many other parts of the economy, will become the domain of larger corporations. And we will all lose because of it.It also means that real estate is over as an investment. All it really was was a shield against currency debasement, but those days are now behind us.Similarly, the door is now open for local authorities to charge a visitor levy. This tourist tax will start small and then rise, like every other tax in history. We already have the tax on moving that is stamp duty, now we have this. If you tax movement, people will move less. If you have no movement, you have no growth. It really isn’t that difficult.They do not seem to understand that capital flows to where it is welcome. If you tax it, it will not come; it will go. What is the golden rule of the magnum opus? More taxes or higher rates do not equal greater revenue. But the reverse.We are now, as you know, taxed at the highest rate since the Second World War. What is the money going on? You don’t need me to tell you how much is being spaffed. Waste, fraud, incompetence, misallocation. Government is the most inefficient means of spending money there is. As if to prove my point, they couldn’t even make the announcement about how they’re going to spend your money competently. They’ve spent the last few months leaking stuff. Leaking is a tool of government, so when it backfires, at least we have some karma. Meanwhile, the source of the leak, the OBR, rarely if ever gets a prediction right. How much is being drained from the productive to fund that thing? How many bad choices are made as a result of its utterances?The state is already disproportionately large and it is only going to get bigger Where do the salaries of those who work for the state come from? The ever-decreasing sector of the economy that actually builds wealth. Even if you are providing some essential state service and are being well paid to do it, you are still a dependent, because it is the shrinking part of the economy that actually builds wealth that is the ultimate source of your wages.Millionaires and billionaires, assuming they haven’t made their wealth through crony capitalism or government subsidy, are not the problem - they are the solution. We want to attract them here, not frighten them away. They create employment. Our lives are better for likes of Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk, not worse. The same goes for investment, profit, saving, trade, growth. We want to attract them not deter them.The opposite applies to deficit spending, money printing, currency debasement, suppressed interest rates, high taxes, tax traps, welfare, dependency, regulation and bureaucracy. You want to deter them not attract them. Yet I am afraid all we are doing is the latter.If you pay people to be unproductive, you will get more unproductive people. If you tax people who are productive, you will get fewer productive people. What is so hard to understand?We can rant and rave. It won’t do any good. This is the path we are on. We are following the template of South Africa. (It was actually me that coined the term “the South Africanisation of everything”, something I am quite proud of). We keep thinking that things can’t get any worse. But they can and will. It is gradual and incremental. We are frogs being boiled while suffering water torture. The country is going to get even more socialist. All you can do is look after yourself and your family.If you are young and reading this, the best thing you can do is leave, as so many are already doing. It is just so hard to build a future for yourself when you are so heavily taxed, and then the money you are paid in is being debased. Leave, travel the world, have adventures, learn, become a Sovereign Individual. The world is a big place. There are better futures to be had elsewhere.It’s all happening just as I said it would in Daylight Robbery, by the way, even the mileage taxMany of us, however, because of our circumstances, do not have the option to leave.So what to do?Real estate, as already mentioned, is now dead as an investment. It’s too easy a target for taxes. UK companies are going to find life that much harder - the rising minimum wage will reduce employment (and thus increase the burden of dependents). It’s also going to mean higher costs for you as this tweet demonstratesIf companies do well, they will face further taxes. Dividend taxes are a deterrent too. We are not quite at the point where UK companies are un-investible (in fact there is a wall of US capital that wants to buy the UK), but the foundations are not exactly enticing.The one compensation for saving in fiat was interest, but taxes here are going to go up too. So cash is crapAs we have long argued on these pages, you need to park capital where governments can’t touch it, tax it or debase it. The best forms of non-government money are gold, if you want something physical, and bitcoin, if you prefer something digital.We are not yet at the point where they try to tax or confiscate your gold and bitcoin, but we are on the trajectory I’m sorry to say.All those horrible bitcoiners crowing about how much money they’ve made - do you honestly think taxing or confiscation of bitcoin won’t meet with public approval? You’re just another one of those loathsome rich people creating inequality.It’s coming, but we are not there yet.Bitcoin is in one of its down seasons. But it is still the best performing asset class of the last 15 years. And if you don’t like it, fine, own gold instead. There is plenty more gas in that particular tank.Reeves may have staved off a tantrum in the gilt markets, and a resulting fall in the pound, but she has created an even bigger problem for her successors.We need fewer taxes, lower taxes and simpler taxes. It all starts there. Reeves has chosen a path in the opposite direction, the road more travelled. And it takes us further along the road to serfdom. If you live in the Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Sunday’s thought piece has become the most viewed piece in this Substack’s history. Take a look, in case you missed it:Until next time,Dominic This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

The Romans enslaved 160 million people. The Mughals 112 million. The Mali Empire 57 million. Your Sunday deep dive into the data they don’t teach in schools.We have crunched the numbers across 5,000 years of human civilisation, and ranked the results. What we found will surprise you - and might just change how you think about the past.Substack subscribers see this first, before it goes to X, Facebook, Insta and YouTube next week.Know others who should see this?If of interest, the research for this video can be found here.My thanks go to Goat, for making the video, and to Andy at Red Creative for the studio.If you live in a Third World country, such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Moving onto other matters, ICYMI here is this week’s commentaryMeanwhile, have you read it yet? “Possibly the best-time book ever,” says Merryn Somerset Webb. The Secret History of Gold - Money, Myth, Politics and Power is available at all good bookstores. Finally, I appeared on the Shepheard Walwyn Podcast, interviewed by Jonathan Brown, this week. Here it is - talking gold.Until next time,Dominic This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI don’t mean to get all bearish on you.Bearish copy - it’s all going down, it’s going to crash - gets more eyeballs than “everything’s fine”. Bearish commentators usually have bigger followings. Bad news sells.But bears are usually wrong. They’ve predicted 13 of the last two corrections.The fact is, as human beings progress and economies grow, markets tend to rise. This is doubly so when the underlying unit of account - the pound, the euro, the dollar - is being systematically debased. (Which makes the underperformance of the FTSE these last 25 years even more incredible by the way). Stock markets, especially in the US, have become places to park capital, where you can reduce erosion by inflation.So that’s my disclaimer out of the way.I’m feeling bearishWe’ll start with bitcoin. It’s a leading indicator for the Nasdaq and tech. It’s sold off - from $125,000 in early October to $90,000 a coin on Monday. Remember: I targeted $90,000 a coin a few weeks back.The crypto summer was muted, so we can expect this crypto winter to be similarly muted - no 90% corrections in other words. But we are almost 30% down already.Strip out the noise and HODL is my advice. That’s what I’m doing. There has been no better investment strategy over the last 15 years and I’m sticking with it. But a crypto winter is upon us, it seems. Let’s hope it’s a mild one.Here’s the chart. Look at the 50 day moving average in red. This is the third time in since 2024 that we have been in this situation.One correction lasted most of 2024 - well, March to October - the other took up the first five months of this year. They passed.Also worth noting is how each correction seems to have three spikes down - three drives to the bottom. This time around we have only had one, so maybe a couple more to go. That is not a prediction by the way: just an observation.The corrections in gold and silver have been more muted. But I have to say the silver chart concerns me. Double top or what?I thought the October correction would go deeper than it did, but it held up at the 50 day moving average (red line). That’s a sign of strength. This rebound rally, dead cat bounce - whatever you want to call it - has taken us right back to the old highs, while gold and the S&P500 both made lower highs. That is also a sign of relative strength.But the second high was not confirmed by the silver miners, that is not good. And now we have a double top on our hands, until we don’t.I would think we have one more leg down to get through plus some sideways consolidation to digest the gains of earlier this year. Here is gold, FYI, which has conspicuously made a lower high. This one might want to go into the $3 thousands for a bit.The stock market has this ridiculous Nvidia situation to get through. $4.4 trillion market cap - and that’s after the recent pullback. 40 stocks account for something like 60% of the market cap of the five hundred stocks in the S&P. It needs to rebalance, otherwise it’s an index of 40 stocks with 460 hangers-on. Corrections are how these things happen.So I am feeling über cautious. There is nothing wrong with having cash in times like this - it means you can buy stuff.On the other hand, the year end rally is approaching - so maybe we should just stay long. As with bitcoin, the way to play the stock market since 2009 when the S&P500 reached 666 - it is ten times that today! - has been simply to hold on through. With so many conflicting messages, it’s hard to know what to do. Dolce Far Niente … Italian for HODL.With all that in mind, I want to just skim through some of my speculative positions and give you my latest opinion on them. we are going to look at Metals Exploration (MTL.L), Comstock (LODE.NYSE), Lightbridge (LTBR), Minera Alamos (MAI.V) and more. Time to sell? Time to buy more?Let’s see. A review of the speculative portfolioWe’ll start with Metals Exploration (MTL.L), my largest position.

Good Sunday to you,As your thought piece this week, we have my interview with Kitco News, talking gold, tax, deficits and more with Jeremy Szafron. I’ve ripped the audio so that those who listen to the podcast can hear it as well.These signed copies of Secret History of Gold have proved quite popular, so I have ordered another box. (They make good Christmas presents). If you would like one, please email me - frizzers at gmail.com. Note: they are cheaper via Amazon (via me I have to charge you postage) but you don’t get my signature or a message. Finally, ICYMI is this week’s commentary, in which we check in on the Dolce Far Niente portfolio.Until next time,Dominic I urge you to own gold or silver, especially if you live in the Third World Country such as the UK. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI’ve been writing so much about gold and silver lately, I need to cover something else.But my quick take: as seemed likely, gold and silver have gone into one of their corrective phases. This is likely to last several months, in the humble opinion of this writer. There’ll be false dawns, which catch everyone out, and false deaths too, with the overall trend being sideways.In the event of a broader stock market correction - which is long overdue given the scale of this rally since the Tariff Tantrum™ in the spring - gold and, especially, silver will sell off along with everything else. That doesn’t mean gold isn’t a safe haven. It just means there is a lot of hot money in gold, which quickly gets liquidated in a sell-off.But, yes, this incredible rally we have seen in the S&P500 since the Tariff Tantrum™ is looking exhausted and seems to be rolling over.Bitcoin is taking a hit too - although not as big a hit as the broader crypto space - and bitcoin is what I want to look at today.Here is one crypto trader’s desk, as pictured on Twitter during Tuesday’s sell-off.That’s what happens when you use too much leverage.What do they say about taking the emotion out of trading?Bitcoin - what gives?So many things have happened this year which have blown winds in bitcoin’s favour* A newly elected US administration which very pro crypto* A deliberately weaker dollar and the debasement trade* The launch of the bitcoin ETFs in the US increasing access to much larger flows of capital* Strength in tech stocks generally* A risk-on appetite* The halving cycleAnd moreYet bitcoin feels like it hasn’t quite delivered. A new high of ‘only’ $125,000.The latest narrative doing the rounds is this idea that the launch of the bitcoin ETFs is like bitcoin’s IPO. Just as when a big tech stock IPOs, a lot of early seed money takes the opportunity to exit, so are many early bitcoin investors - so-called OGs - now moving on. That would explain the many coins that have been moved from previously dormant wallets to exchanges over the last six months.Maybe.What can I say?You can either decide that bitcoin’s time is done. It’s game over. Move on.Or you can treat this like another of the numerous shake-outs that have taken bitcoin in the 16 years since its inception. The story was getting a bit tired. It needs a shake-out to ruffle a few feathers and purge.The moral of every previous correction can be summed up in 4 letters: HODL.It looks like we may have got a bit of a crypto winter to get through. If the winter reflects the previous summer, then this one shouldn’t be too bad. But consolidation phases can be frustrating, so the secret is to be quite zen about the whole thing and keep your eye on the bigger picture.Bitcoin bear markets can be painful, but the beauty of them is that, unlike mining bear markets which can go on for a decade or more, they tend to be short lived.Treat bear markets as opportunities. They’re a good time to build positions, build businesses and more. Go and watch some Michael Saylor videos and re-indoctrinate yourself.But on no account lose your position. Bull markets come along when you least expect them.Everything is looking a bit red at the moment - gold, silver, the S&P500, bitcoin. It might be the end of this cycle. but it’s not the end of the world.I don’t know when or where this bitcoin correction ends. My guess is around $90,000 but that’s nothing more than a guess. Perhaps we revisit $75,000 - which is the level we hit during the Tariff Tantrum™ earlier this year.But it’s just as possible that dip below $100k on Tuesday was a fake-out, and the bear market is already done.I thought this graphic was interesting.There is plenty more room for future buying as governments and corporations try to increase their positions.By the way I get that some readers like bitcoin and others don’t. That’s fine. Each to their own. However, if you are in the latter camp, you do not need to email me and tell me bitcoin is not real money/quantum computing is going to destroy it/it is an invention of the deep state/ it is a scam. Please also feel no need to regurgitate Peter Schiff tweets either. (I’m fairly sure he is paid to slag bitcoin off by the way).Turning now to the clusterfook that is the UKBuying bitcoin ETFs in the UK - t he hows, whats and whysIt’s semantics, but you can’t actually buy ETFs in the UK you have to buy ETNs. I’m not even going to bother trying to explain it. It’s regulatory bollocks and not worth wasting time or brain power over.October 8th, the date when the FCA decided UK citizens are allowed to buy bitcoin ETNs is now behind us, but the farce is not.I first found out about bitcoin in December 2010 when it was 22c. I was sent my first coins soon after. I wrote the first book on bitcoin from a recognised publisher in 2014. Yet this morning I just attempted to complete the FCA’s form to get me approved to buy a bitcoin ETN - so that I understand the risks - and I failed it. The “correct” answer to their questions is actually the wrong answer. Absolute farce of an organisation and accountable to no one, so it will continue.In the US, meanwhile, JP Morgan is in the process of enabling bitcoin to be used as mortgage collateral.It’s like being in Spain in 1492, the ship is setting sail to the New World and somebody from the FCA is standing on the gangplank with a clipboard stopping UK citizens from getting onboard.Amongst the plethora of moronic barriers which the FCA has laid down is that bitcoin carries the same risk as any other cryptocurrency - including the latest meme, scam or shitcoin. Bitcoin is not fartcoin, and categorising the two together reveals the scary depths of FCA ignorance.Meanwhile, from next year you won’t be able to buy bitcoin ETNs in your ISA, you will have to get a special ISA. They are trying to kill us with bureaucracy, I’m convinced of it.Which broker and which ETN?In terms of enabling their customers to invest, the UK brokers have ranged from excellent - Interactive Investor, which went live on day 1, as boss Richard Wilson proudly tells me - to totally useless - Hargreaves Lansdown and AJ Bellend.Hargreaves Lansdown, apparently trying to give the FCA a run for its brainless money, even put out the following statement.“Bitcoin is not an asset class, and we do not think cryptocurrency has characteristics that mean it should be included in portfolios for growth or income and shouldn’t be relied upon to help clients meet their financial goals … Unlike other alternative asset classes, it has no intrinsic value.”Talk about retarded.If you want to be able to invest in these things via your SIPP or ISA, move your account to Interactive Investor is my advice. Use this affiliate link and you get a year for free.I should stress buying bitcoin via a broker negates many of bitcoin’s uses. Yes, you get the store-of-value benefits, but you can’t send and receive it; you can’t use it to make payments or donations; you don’t have sovereignty - the fund manager does - and so there is considerable counter-party risk - the coins could be confiscated, the fund could go bust etc. You don’t have anonymity either.Still it’s better than no exposure at all.But which ETN should you go for? And what about the treasury companies? And, what indeed about Semler Scientific (SMLR)?

Good Sunday to you,I am headed to Birmingham and Huddersfield week after next. If you are in either neck of the woods, come and see the show.Don’t it always seem to go That you don’t know what you’ve got ‘til it’s goneJoni MitchellBack in the 1980s I remember the newly privatised British Telecom, in its wisdom, decided to get rid of Britain’s red telephone boxes and replace them with things made of glass or was it perspex? The originals were designed, I’ve since read, by one Giles Gilbert Scott, who got the gig as a result of a design competition. (I’ve since learned he also designed Battersea Power Station, so he was quality).British Telecom wanted a rebranding, so somebody at HQ decided to waste lord-knows-how-much money getting rid of however many phone boxes there were around the country - they’re cast iron so this was not an easy job, nor a cheap one - and replace them with something better, which inevitably turned out to be worse.Here’s the iconic before:Here’s what they replaced them with:I barely remember these. You probably don’t either. Because they were soon got rid of and replaced with these. Why did they bother?The glass replacements are just so bland you cannot not even describe them as ugly. They are just characterless nothings. Why people in corporations feel this need to glassify everything - it’s happened to buildings as well, of course - is beyond me. I guess they think it’s “dynamic”. (Indeed, they’ve done something similar to language).BT justified the rebranding by saying existing phone boxes got vandalised: prostitutes and mini cab drivers left their calling cards in them, people pissed in them. All of this is true, but there were other ways of dealing with these issues. (It’s not unlike the many invented problems being cited today to justify hoisting digital ID on us). The bottom line is that the powers that be wanted a rebrand. Good for their egos, I guess. And thanks to the privatisation they now had bucket loads of capital to spend on it.Whatever. They spent a shedload and made it worse. So there I was walking along Parliament Square the other day and what did I see but a this huge queue of tourists lining up to have their photo taken by a phone box. Not one of the glass ones obviously. And I mean huge queue. See for yourself.I would say there are 40 or more people in that queue. If they each take 45 seconds for their photo, that’s a good 30-minute wait.The rest of the world loves the English for who we are. For our history, our culture, our style, our character, our charm, our order, our beauty. That’s why so many tourists flock here. Why are we incapable of appreciating ourselves and loving what we have created? - instead choosing to self-hate and apologise for what we have done.The rest of the world wants the England of red phone boxes, afternoon tea, good manners and Downton Abbey. They don’t want England for its diversity (diversity is not London’s greatest strength, despite what they mayor may tell you - London’s greatest strength is that it is the capital of England, not Diversityland), nor for its gender-neutral toilets, glass fronted buildings, low trust communities or its street crime. They want England for the English.So the point of today’s missive.A few years ago somebody got the no-doubt-very-well-paid gig erecting cycle sheds around the capital. Here was an opportunity to design something iconic, something which added to London - like the old red buses, black taxis, post boxes and, yes, the phone boxes. Things that characterise London, and thus things that people love London for. Here’s what we got. They even put a picture of a bicycle on the side, just in case you’re totally moronic.Talk about a wasted opportunity.They look like budget Anderson shelters.And what’s the shelf life of one of those. Ten years, maybe?Can you see tourists seventy or eighty years from now queuing up for half an hour to get their photo taken next to one?Oh well.If you enjoyed reading this, please share it far and wide.Lots of things to share with you this week* Here ICYMI is this week’s commentary:* Here is a piece from my comedy Substack about Prunella Scales, who died on Monday. It also contains an episode of a 1975 sitcom you’ve probably never heard of but in which she was absolutely brilliant. I urge you to watch it - you will thank me.* I made an appearance on Jeremy McKeown’s new podcast, along with Tim Price, to talk gold.If you live in a Third World country, such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.* And, finally, on Friday morning at 07.34 GMT, I became a grandad. Please welcome Cecilia (name not yet confirmed) to the group.As we are headed into Christmas present season, if you are unable to follow the tradition of the Wise Men and gift actual gold, how about a book about gold instead?I deal for anyone at home or at work. The Secret History of Gold - Money, Myth, Politics and Power is available at all good bookstoresUntil next time,Dominic This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

You probably saw my post from ten days ago in which I argued that the vast numbers of people queuing up outside bullion stores in Singapore and Sydney to buy gold and silver were not a good sign.As it turns out, they were not. Gold and silver have put in a top - an interim, mid-cycle top, in my view, not the top - and we can now expect many months of sideways, shake-out, frustrating consolidation to generally piss everyone off. It’s important, in such times, to keep your eye on the bigger picture, which in this case is the inevitable debasement of currency, so as not to lose your position.You’ll know, I’m sure, the story of Joe Kennedy’s shoe shine boy. In 1929, so the story goes, the boy who was polishing the celebrated investor’s shoes started giving him stock tips. If the shoe shine boy has bought in, thought Joe Kennedy Snr, who else is left to buy? That persuaded him that the top was close and he famously sold just before the crash.That story is often cited to illustrate the idea that retail investors are sheep. They’re stupid. You should do the opposite to what retail is doing and so on.I don’t think it’s anything like that simple.There are some retail investors who are stupid. There are plenty who are rookies and naive. But there are plenty who are thoughtful, wise and, as a result, very good investors. By the same token, I have met many fund managers, analysts and more from respected institutions who are thick as pigshite. (I have met plenty of geniuses too). Give me the choice between some blogger and an institutional research report, you’ll often get far more insight from the former. I frequently read bulletin boards, or chats on Twitter, as part of my research into a company.It wasn’t institutions who got into bitcoin early, it was retail. Even now many institutions shun it, particularly in bureaucratic banana republics such as the UK. Who were the smart guys? The people that bought earliest. Retail.Obviously, if you start getting investment tips from a shoe shine boy/taxi driver/barber (my Albanian barber is forever shilling me shitcoins) or your nan’s carer’s mate, that is usually a bad sign, but it doesn’t mean that ordinary folk are stupid.With the above in mind, I stumbled across this video from another legend of American investing, Jim Simons. At the time of his death in 2024, the hedge fund manager’s net worth was north of $30 billion, making him the 55th-richest person in the world.He describes January 21, 1980, when, at the afternoon fix, gold went to $850 /oz - a blow-off top that would not be seen again for almost 30 years.I write about that 1980 blow-off top, by the way, and how it was “illusory” in the Secret History of Gold (BTW the audiobook is getting barnstorming reviews).The point I draw from the Simons talk is that retail was selling gold. People were not buying, they were selling.In other words, retail nailed the top of the market. My mum remembers the gold fever - and indeed the silver fever (silver spiked to $50 three days earlier on January 18). Even today, 45 years on, the silver price is lower than it was then - that’s how insane that spike was.She recalls people queuing up to sell their family silver. Not to buy it. To sell it.So that is something I am looking for to tell than this bull market is close to an end: when retail, ordinary people, start selling their physical in droves. We are not there yet.Even towards the end of the last bull market which peaked in 2011, everywhere you went, there were signs saying, “We buy any gold”. Retail was selling.Comedian Gary Delaney and I even wrote a sketch in which a wizard (Gandalf) pulls a ring from the fire, reads the inscription, hands it to a hobbit (Frodo), who nods thoughtfully and says something along the lines of, “I understand what I must do.” We then cut to him going into a shop with a sign outside that says, “We buy any gold.”I still think that sketch is funny, but of course TV didn’t want it. Wrong age, wrong sex, wrong colour - never mind wrong views.If you enjoyed today’s article, please tell a friend..Until next time,DominicIf you live in a Third World country, such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Good Sunday to you,Before we go to today’s piece, let me flag this week’s commentary - on the action in the gold and silver markets, in case you missed it. A blip or the start of something more significant?So to the osteopath who isn’t an osteopathI first met Michelle Davies at a James Delingpole event. She was buying one of my books and wanted to pay in bitcoin, which got her an immediate gold star. She mentioned quite matter-of-factly that she was an osteopath who had been struck off and, “would I like some treatment?”.As a man with many ailments accumulated over the decades, a large portion of which I have given up trying to heal, I couldn’t see much downside to the offer. She might even be able to cure one of the incurables. “Why not?”, I thought.A few days later, in a studio near Worcester, she placed her hands behind my head, went still for a moment, announced that my energy channels were “terrible - blocked, nought out of ten,” manipulated my neck and head for a bit, muttered to herself, sighed, told me off for swearing, got me to speak into a microphone, and then began “sending me frequencies.” I left feeling oddly lighter.So I went back.“I’m trying to have a lucid dream,” I told her. “But I’m not making much progress.”I explained the difference between a vivid dream, which is what it says on the tin, and a lucid dream, which is a dream in which you know you are having a dream, while you have the dream. Keener readers will remember to “get better at lucid dreaming” was one of my ambitions for 2025.“Oh,” she said. “I might be able to help with that.” And she went to work on my channels again.That night, I had nine dreams. Nine. Normally I’d be lucky to remember one or two. None were fully lucid, but still - progress.I went back again. “Can you help me with my ankle?” I’ve got flat feet and my ankles are very stiff as a result. I’ve broken my right ankle five times.She held it, paused, and began to cry. “There’s so much pain here,” she said. “I can’t fix it completely,” she declared, “but I can make it much better”.My ankles are one of the many banes of my life. I still play football, but I am incapable of “putting my laces through it” - that is shooting with my instep. I’ve not been able to shoot properly since I was in my early 20s. It hurts so much - my foot involuntarily winces moments before I strike, so my whole game is little passes with the inside of my foot. It’s limiting. I might get one goal in a game of six-a-side, maybe two if I’m lucky. Usually I don’t score.“When are you playing next?” she asked.“Tomorrow.”“I’ll broadcast to you,” she said.The following night I scored six goals. SIX.“Have you been having shooting lessons?” one of the other players asked, both miffed and baffled.“What is your biggest goal in life? Michelle asked at another session.“To get Kisses on a Postcard made,” I said.I explained what it is. We came up with a mantra, which I recorded and she layered with one of her frequencies. I began playing it each morning while doing the gentle stretches, which she told me to do, in bed. Three weeks later, I closed the seed funding round I had up to then been struggling with - oversubscribed, no less. All coincidence, I’m sure. But Kisses on a Postcard is finally moving forward.Osteopath No MoreMichelle Davies was a local osteopath in Worcester who had been practising for 25 years. Among the many things she found she was good at treating were sinusitis, asthma, anxiety, depression, baby colic & reflux, sleep issues and infections. The patient testimonials on her website confirmed as much.However, in 2016 the General Osteopathic Council (GOsC) got in touch. In case you are not familiar, GOsC is osteopathy’s contribution to The Blob, the army of unaccountable regulators which runs, if that’s the right word, Britain, answerable to no man. (If you think the government is in charge, you’re deluded).In the great British tradition of unelected bureaucrat, GOsC has discovered the elixir of Blob: a toxic mix of arrogance, incompetence, paperwork and regulatory overreach, which will satisfactorily obstruct any attempt at progress. GOsC explained to Michelle that osteopathy can only cure 12 things, and these do not include the items which Michelle had found she could treat. Unless she removed the 75 patient testimonials, she would face a Fitness to Practise case. She did as she was told and removed the lot.“But I can and have treated these things,” she thought. “I’ve got 75 testimonials to prove it”.So, in 2021, she brought a claim against GOsC for damages, arguing that their actions had limited her professional scope and censored the public’s voice. GOsC questioned her fitness to practise, demanded a psychiatric assessment and access to her medical notes. She refused and was struck off. She could no longer call herself an osteopath. In fact, she eventually got a criminal record for, checks notes, “impersonating an osteopath”. (Read her google reviews, if you want the patients’ side of this)BTW I know nothing of GOsC and I haven’t researched their side of the story, nor do I care to. They’re regulators, so my default position is biased against, and unless they can demonstrably prove they warrant a better opinion, that will remain my position. So Michelle began marketing herself as the osteopath who was stuck off. Three years on she has a practice in Harley Street, charging several times her old rate.Note to any osteopaths reading this: get yourself struck off. It’s great for business.If you live in a Third World country, such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.A Healing WeekI later discovered she also offers “healing weeks.” She comes to stay with you and your family for seven days and treats everyone daily. I thought we could all use a tune-up, and to my surprise when I proposed the idea, the Frisby household agreed: my eldest son (24), his heavily pregnant girlfriend (23), and my eldest daughter who lives nearby (22).Each of us had 60–90 minutes of treatment every day - osteopathic manipulation, cranial work, red and blue light therapy, terahertz wand, frequencies, castor oil packs, and more.My pregnant daughter-in-law was having problems with acid reflux and carpal tunnel numbness. Michelle got rid of the former in one session, the latter took a couple. My son’s hips and ankles loosened up, and he started sleeping better. My daughter’s pelvis, inflamed from a childhood incident involving a pillowcase and a staircase (news to me), finally began to settle, and she has reported improvements to her PCOS. I also sent Goat, my bassist and who makes many of my videos, for some treatment (in exchange for filming the video below). He’s had a heavy stammer all his life, After three sessions, you can actually have a normal conversation with him. Meanwhile, I have become an even more astounding human being. We’re all still flawed humans, but by the end of the week everyone felt lighter, happier, and healthier, and the house had a different atmosphere.Maybe I’m a sucker. Maybe it’s all placebo. Does it matter? I narrated a documentary once about the placebo effect: it is real. If it works, that’s all that counts, surely.Imagine a regulator approving placebo treatment …If you fancy a healing week with Michelle, find out more at www.healingwithmichelledavies.com. Just don’t tell the GOsC I sent you. And if you live abroad, don’t worry: one of the reasons she has started offering these weeks is that she wants to travel more. I gather she has just been booked to go to Singapore.Here’s the vid: If you enjoyed this, please tell a friend.Full disclosure: Michelle gave me a discount in exchange for helping her with above vid and for a review. I insisted the review be impartial, which it was, though if my experience had been negative, I probably wouldn’t have published it.Until next time,DominicPS Here, again, is this week’s commentary. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comWe worried it would come, and now it has.The dreaded correction.Silver and gold have been clobbered, hit for something like 6 and 9% from their highs at one point. The miners have been hit for more. GDX is down 15% from its Friday highs.This is quite the slap down, the biggest I can remember for years.What can I say? It was coming.How cruel a mistress is silver! She did exactly what she needed to do to suck everyone in, even the doubters like myself: went through $50 to $54, persuaded everyone that this time it’s different, sucked them in and then slapped them down. Oh, silver!Today we consider what to do next, and we’ll start with the big picture.There are several possible scenarios. Here are three of them:* That’s it. The bull market’s over. Silver reached $50, as it did it 1980 and 2011. Now it corrects, and it’ll be another decade or more before it gets there again. Batten down the hatches: we are going into another bear market. What we saw in the miners was just a 9-month relief rally, much as we got in 2016. Normal gold mining behaviour - relentless declines, in other words - will soon resume.* You don’t understand, gold is being remonetized. This is a new paradigm. Buy the dips. We’ll be back at new highs before you know.* Nothing goes up in a straight line, not even gold when it is re-entering the money system. Bull markets shake you off. We are going into a sideways correction that is going to last as long as a year. Possibly longer. It is going to frustrate everyone, bull and bear alike. The weak, hot money needs to be purged, the system cleansed of excess, before this thing can get going again. It’s a mid-cycle shake out.Which of these is it?And, most importantly of all, what do we do now?I’m going to give you my opinions on gold, silver, the miners, and the speculative positions in which we own stock.I’m also going to give you some target prices.This is what I think happens next.

Two items on the agenda today.First, my interview with Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster for Triggernometry has been released. Here it is on YouTube, Spotify and Apple PodcastsSecond, using a different methodology to that which I used in Secret History of Gold (have you read it yet?), I am going to estimate China’s gold reserves.I was planning to take a look at top silver pick, Sierra Madre Gold and Silver (TSX-V:SM) today, after my meeting with CEO Alex Langer last week, but I will leave that till tomorrow now, meaning you get an extra piece this week you lucky things.China’s Hidden Gold Empire: How Much Does Beijing Really Hold?I regard this as one of the most important subjects in geo-politics, which is why I repeatedly come back to it.It doesn’t matter if you issue the global reserve currency, if you don’t make anything you are in the doo-doo, and this is something the Trump administration is attempting to address with tariffs, a weaker dollar and, more subtly, the managed decline of the US dollar as global reserve currency. It’s all part of Triffin’s Dilemma. As a result, neutral gold’s role as global reserve asset is re-surging.History’s “golden” rule will soon apply again: he who has the gold makes the rules. (If you are interested in the origins of the phrase by the way, it’s all here).This different methodology only came to me overnight, and I don’t know what the conclusion will be yet, though I suspect it will arrive at a figure which is more conservative than what I have argued previously. Here we go.Here, for context, are world central bank holdings, as officially stated.My argument has long been that China has considerably more than the 2,300 tonnes it says it does.The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), by the way, is the main custodian, but other state entities, such as China Investment Corporation (the sovereign wealth fund), State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the army also own gold.Remember China is the world’s largest importer of gold, the largest consumer and the largest producer. it’s been that since 2007 when it overtook South Africa.I am going to use round numbers, as they are more digestible, and when there is a spread - eg 500-1,000 tonnes, take the middle number, ie 750 tonnes.It is impossible to know just how much gold China has imported, because so many transactions are private, particularly those which go through London, Switzerland or Dubai. The Hong Kong gold is better disclosed.However, most - though not all - of the gold which goes to China goes through the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). SGE withdrawals from 2007 to mid 2025 total 29,500-30,000 tonnes, based on aggregated data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and World Gold Council (WGC) reports.However, the SGE is just a flow metric. It does not represent total consumption. Some of that gold which passes through will have been double counted, either as a result of re-selling and re-cycling, or because of China’s booming money-laundering business and the circular trade with Hong Kong. Estimates for double-counting range from 10% (World Gold Council) to 30% (analyst Koos Jansen). Let’s take the middle 20% figure - 6,000 tonnes - and that leaves us with 23,250 tonnes of SGE gold.Undisclosed goldThe PBOC likes 400oz bars, as traded in London, and these do not trade on the SGE, which uses smaller kilo bars, 3kg or 12.5kg bars. 400oz is about 12.4kg by the way. So a lot of those London imports will not go through the SGE, and so are in addition to the numbers above.Analysts mostly concur that, while reported imports via London, Switzerland and Dubai total 3,500-4,500 tonnes, another 2,000-3,000 tonnes (mostly post-2009, accelerating since 2022) have gone unreported.2,500 tonnes is the middle figure, then. Add that to the 23,250 tonnes of SGE and our total is now 25,750 tonnes.If you live in a Third World country, such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Chinese gold productionAround 55% of Chinese gold production is state owned, and this century China has mined roughly 7,500 tonnes.70-80% of Chinese production is sold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) - so we have already counted that - the other 20-30% goes to the state.Using estimates from the mid-range. 25% of those 7,500 tonnes, therefore - 1,875 tonnes - has gone to the state. The rest has been sold through the SGE.Add 1,875 tonnes to the total and we are at 27,625 tonnes.By the way, I have not included overseas Chinese gold production, of which there is a lot. Some of this product is sold on international markets and never actually reaches China. But what does reach China gets sold through the SGE and so has already been counted.Finally, we have to add in gold held in China, whether as bullion or jewellery, prior to 2000. The World Gold Council estimates a figure of 2,500 tonnes in privately-held jewellery. Added to domestic mining and official reserves, you get a figure of around 4,000 tonnes.This brings our grand total to 31,625 tonnes of gold in China.Putting it all togetherPreviously, I have argued that 50% of that gold would go to the state. That would mean roughly 16,000 tonnes. Almost twice as much as the US’s reported 8,100 tonnes! When audit?My thinking has changed.Let me propose another methodology. And this has come as a result of my conversation with Konstantin (see above).Annual gold demand last year was roughly:* Jewellery 47%* Investment 25%* Central Bank 23%* Industry 6%This obviously varies from year to year, with investment and central bank demand being the big variables. But if we assume Chinese demand roughly matches global demand (this is an easy argument to challenge), that would mean that of the 31,625 tonnes:* 14,864 is now jewellery* 7,910 is now bullion held by investors* 1,900 tonnes went into manufacturingAnd, drum roll for the Big KahunaThe Chinese government has 7,294 tonnes.Obviously, it’s easy to make the case that since China is such a big manufacturer, Chinese industrial demand is likely to be higher than 6%. It’s also easy to make the case that, because the Chinese like gold so much, and the state has been encouraging them to invest since 2007, that both Chinese jewellery and investment demand is higher than 47% and 25% respectively.It’s also easy to make the case that, because of de-dollarisation, PBOC demand is higher than 23%.In any case, I have been transparent about my methodology. You can make up your own minds. You’re all grown ups.Maybe my 20% estimate for SGE double counting is too low, for example.Regardless, China’s stated reserves of 2,300 tonnes are laughingly lowball.In a funny kind of way, it’s actually better for investors if China has less gold - because it means they have more buying to do and that should help drive prices higher.Its stated 2,300 tonnes only account for 7% of its US$3.4 trillion reserves. To get above 70% and match the US, Germany, France and Italy, at $4,200/oz gold, it would need something like 18,000 tonnes. That’s a lot of buying yet to come.Why does China understate its reserves? Softly, softly catchee monkey, and all that: we must not shine too brightly. It doesn’t want to rock the boat, particularly while it’s still accumulating.This is where we are going, folks.You want to own gold. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comThis might mark the top of the market, folks.The BBC just invited me on to talk about the gold price.Though it was the World Service, not BBC 1, so maybe this is just an interim top.Here’s the interview, in case you want to listen:Another danger sign. Jim Cramer, the world’s greatest contrarian indicator, to everyone’s surprise, is all of a sudden a “confirmed gold bug.”Gold is at $4,000. Silver is at $49.Many of the miners are spiking. Capital, so hard to come by for a mining company barely six months ago, is now being thrown at them. And it’s being taken. Who is going to buy all this paper in four months’ time when it comes free trading?‘The whole population are going crazy . . . Old as well as young are daily falling victim to the gold fever.’That was an old man in 1849 talking, quoted in the Secret History of Gold. It could just as well be now.By the way, folks, with gold at record highs, The Secret History of Gold should surely should be the next book you read.I must confess, folks. I am torn.There is just too much hot money sloshing about. Everyone’s talking gold. That is usually time to take cover.Then again, this market has the potential to go a lot higher. There is a very real chance both the silver and gold price could double before this is over. What that would do to the mining companies …Today we offer eight reasons this market could go a lot higher.And, in the interests of balance, we offer five reasons it is peaking right here, right now.We will start with eight reasons it is going higher.1. Institutional Money Is Still on the SidelinesThe investment world is under-allocated to gold. In the last bull market we reached 8% allocation. Today we are only at 2%.Even gold ETF holdings themselves are below 2021 levels.We are even more under-allocated to miners.2 The 60/20/20 Revolution: Gold Gets Equal Billing with BondsTraditional portfolio allocation Is m hanging. It used to be 60:40 equities to bonds. But, with the generational secular bull market in government bonds now over, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Investment Officer, Mike Wilson is advocating instead for a 60/20/20 mix. Where one leads, others follow. Gold would have equal status to bonds, as it should. Funds the world over 20% allocated to gold! This one is potentially huge.3 Bull Markets Last a Decade -We’re Only a Few Years In1971 to 1980, 2001 to 2011. When did this one start? Late 2018? Late 2022? We might only be three years into this one.Higher prices beget higher prices.4 The Debt Monster Has Barely Woken UpThis debt crisis has barely got going. Further fiat debasement is inevitable. Your pound, euro or dollar is going to buy you a lot less 10 years from now. That is INEVITABLE. It’s inherent to the system.You don’t want to be storing your capital in fiat.If you live in a Third World country, such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.That’s four strong reasons already - and we have another four to go. Followed by five warning signs we could be at the top right now. 5 Central Banks Are Re-M onetising Gold (unoffically)

Good Sunday to you,With bitcoin breaking out to record highs overnight, what a good morning it is indeed.Below is this week’s commentary in case you missed it. Gold keeps on going up. So does silver. So do miners. When does the party end?On the subject of which here are the results of my twitter poll, which make for interesting reading. General consensus is, as I argued, that gold is in innings 6 of 9.But silver is only in innings one, apparently, even if breathing down the neck of $50. Gotta to love those silver bulls!Mining too is early. \We shall see.For you consideration today, I thought I would share this podcast I recorded with Aussie Josh Szeps earlier in the week, talking about everything, really.Enjoy!If you live in a Third World country, such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Until next time,DominicPS Secret History of Gold is going great guns. If you haven’t got your copy, here are links to get it on Amazon and Waterstones and all good bookshops. I hear the audiobook, read by me, is excellent.Amazon is currently offering 20% off.It might be, as Merryn Somerset webb says, “the best timed book" ever. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comNB I have further thoughts on the Semler Scientific deal (NASDAQ:SMLR) which you can read at the end of today’s piece.It’s hard, nigh impossible to call the top in a bull market.If you can get out within 10% of the top, you have done very well. Most don’t.We have been waiting a long time, but we are in a bull market now: not just for gold, but for silver, platinum and the companies that mine these precious metals.It feels very frothy.But is this just a rush before an interim top early in a secular bull market?Or are we nearing the top?Where are we in the cycle now? Which innings of nine, to use the baseball analogy?The other day I suggested we were in innings six - for gold at least. I got a lot of stick for saying that, which probably means I’m right.But I put some polls up on my various WhatsApp chats and the general consensus was 6 for the metal, 3 for the miners.I also have this poll running on X, so you can see current consensus. It’s far from conclusive.It’s important to remember that a bull market in gold and a bull market in gold mining companies are not one and the same. Of course, there is a lot of crossover between the two, but it is possible to have one without the other.From 2022 to 2024, for example, as gold climbed, mining stocks were largely flat or falling. The reverse can also happen. Gold can be going nowhere, while mining stocks can rise. In fact, this is not uncommon, because when gold is flat and volatility disappears, investors get a clearer idea of what the price of the final product is going to be, what the profitability of a mine will be, and that security can enable investment to flow.As you know I have a target of $7,000 gold by the end of this decade, maybe even $10,000 if we get a proper blow-off top.If you live in a Third World country, such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.We’re closing in now on $4,000. But just because I have a target of $7,000 gold doesn’t mean we will get there. Anything but.Another target I’m looking for is for central banks around the world to hold roughly 40% of their reserves in gold. We’re currently just above 25%. We were at 20% barely a year ago. A combination of higher gold prices and increased reserves through accumulation will mean we get to 40% pretty quickly.Central banks’ total gold holdings are currently 36,000 tonnes, according to the ECB. For some context, all the gold that has ever been mined - and of course still exists - amounts to 216,000 tonnes. 36,000 tonnes is quite the share.Central banks are currently accumulating at a rate of 1,000 tonnes per year, says Reuters, which has been the case since 2022 and the freezing of Russian US dollar assets. Annual gold supply is 3,600 tonnes or thereabouts. Given that half of that is taken up with jewellery, that doesn’t leave a lot left over for everyone else (only about 800 tonnes - hence this bull market).Central bank holdings have already overtaken US debt, as you can see from the chart above, and the euro. Next stop is to exceed their US dollar holdings (currently 48%). We’ll get there soon enough, as they accumulate gold, the gold price rises and the relative value of the US dollar holdings recedes.$7,000 gold would take us there near enough.Another target is a Dow-to-gold ratio well below 10, perhaps at 5 where it reached in 2011. (Some have a target below 2 for this one, as we saw in 1929 and 1980, which would mean a gold price in the tens of thousands. Unlikely, I would have thought, but not impossible: it has happened before).With the Dow currently at 46,400, and gold at $3,900 we are currently at 12.Note that the gold to oil ratio has never been this low ever, barring the insanity of Covid when oil went negative. Does that make oil a buy and gold a sell? Probably.This is a key reason mining companies are starting to do so well. Energy is their biggest input cost. Gold is their output. If they can’t make money now, they won’t ever make money.I have lived through a long and painful bear market for mining. It began in 2011. It’s been over a decade, with brief respites in 2016 and 2020, almost relentlessly down. It’s made me extremely cynical. Maybe I’ve got too much recency bias.But the HUI, the index of unhedged gold producers, is butting up against its old 2011 highs, rather like silver, which we will come to in a moment. I know this chart is not adjusted for inflation, but even so it is a concern. Then again, if it goes through, there is no overhead resistance. It would be a proper, mega breakout.Either way, these last few months have been nuts.I remain of the view that for gold, the metal, as I said the other day, we’re in innings six. Mining I’m not so sure.I stole these pictures from Winston Miles of Stifel Wealth Management. They were taken at the Denver Gold Show a few weeks ago. The place is dead. That is not end-of-a-bull-market behaviour“There were hardly any new generalist investors” he says. “Zero retail, everyone was a specialist, and occupancy at the main stage was literally 10% full for most of the presentations.”Then again the Munich gold show - Edelmetallmesse, which ran from 2006 but ended in 2019 with the bear market effectively putting it out of business - is reopening this year and something like 120 mining companies have signed up to attend. That’s quite the reversal.It’s because mining companies are finding investment again. That means they’re issuing paper. Will there be buyers for it?Capital is flowing. Share prices are multiplying in some cases. Animal spirits are high.So many contradictions and mixed signals. Such is the bull market wall of worry. What to do? What to do?