Dwarkesh Podcast

Sergey Levine, one of the world’s top robotics researchers and co-founder of Physical Intelligence, thinks we’re on the cusp of a “self-improvement flywheel” for general-purpose robots. His median estimate for when robots will be able to run households entirely autonomously? 2030.If Sergey’s right, the world 5 years from now will be an insanely different place than it is today. This conversation focuses on understanding how we get there: we dive into foundation models for robotics, and how we scale both the data and the hardware necessary to enable a full-blown robotics explosion.Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.Sponsors* Labelbox provides high-quality robotics training data across a wide range of platforms and tasks. From simple object handling to complex workflows, Labelbox can get you the data you need to scale your robotics research. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh* Hudson River Trading uses cutting-edge ML and terabytes of historical market data to predict future prices. I got to try my hand at this fascinating prediction problem with help from one of HRT’s senior researchers. If you’re curious about how it all works, go to hudson-trading.com/dwarkesh* Gemini 2.5 Flash Image (aka nano banana) isn’t just for generating fun images — it’s also a powerful tool for restoring old photos and digitizing documents. Test it yourself in the Gemini App or in Google’s AI Studio: ai.studio/bananaTo sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.Timestamps(00:00:00) – Timeline to widely deployed autonomous robots(00:17:25) – Why robotics will scale faster than self-driving cars(00:27:28) – How vision-language-action models work(00:45:37) – Changes needed for brainlike efficiency in robots(00:57:59) – Learning from simulation(01:09:18) – How much will robots speed up AI buildouts?(01:18:01) – If hardware’s the bottleneck, does China win by default? Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Britain used sea control, peripheral campaigns, and alliances to defeat Nazi Germany during WWII. She then applies this framework to today, arguing that Russia and China are similarly constrained by their geography, making them vulnerable in any conflict with maritime powers (like the U.S. and its allies).Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.Sponsors* Labelbox partners with researchers to scope, generate, and deliver the exact data frontier models need, no matter the domain. Whether that’s multi-turn audio, SOTA robotics data, advanced STEM problem sets, or even novel RL environments, Labelbox delivers high-quality data, fast. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh* Warp is the best interface I’ve found for coding with agents. It makes building custom tools easy: Warp’s UI helps you understand agent behavior and its in-line text editor is great for making tweaks. You can try Warp for free, or, for a limited time, use code DWARKESH to get Warp’s Pro Plan for only $5. Go to warp.dev/dwarkeshTo sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.Timestamps00:00:00 – How WW1 shaped WW200:15:10 – Hitler and Churchill’s battle to command the Atlantic00:30:10 – Peripheral theaters leading up to Normandy00:37:13 – The Eastern front00:48:04 – Russia’s & China’s geographic prisons01:00:28 – Hitler’s blunders & America’s industrial might01:15:03 – Bismarck’s limited wars vs Hitler’s total war Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Jacob Kimmel thinks he can find the transcription factors to reverse aging. We do a deep dive on why this might be plausible and why evolution hasn’t optimized for longevity. We also talk about why drug discovery has been getting exponentially harder, and what a new platform for biological understanding to speed up progress would look like. As a bonus, we get into the nitty gritty of gene delivery and Jacob’s controversial takes on CAR-T cells. For full disclosure, I am an angel investor in NewLimit. This did not impact my decision to interview Jacob, nor the questions I asked him.Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.SPONSORS* Hudson River Trading uses deep learning to tackle one of the world's most complex systems: global capital allocation. They have a massive in-house GPU cluster, and they’re constantly adding new racks of B200s to ensure their researchers are never constrained by compute. Explore opportunities at hudsonrivertrading.com/dwarkesh\* Google’s Gemini CLI turns ideas into working applications FAST, no coding required. It built a complete podcast post-production tool in 10 minutes, including fully functional backend logic, and the entire build used less than 10% of Gemini’s session context. Check it out on Github now!* To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.TIMESTAMPS(00:00:00) – Three reasons evolution didn’t optimize for longevity(00:12:07) – Why didn't humans evolve their own antibiotics?(00:25:26) – De-aging cells via epigenetic reprogramming(00:44:43) – Viral vectors and other delivery mechanisms(01:06:22) – Synthetic transcription factors(01:09:31) – Can virtual cells break Eroom’s Law?(01:31:32) – Economic models for pharma Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

How will we feed the 100s of GWs of extra energy demand that AI will create over the coming decade? On this episode, Casey Handmer (Caltech PhD, former NASA JPL, founder & CEO of Terraform Industries) walks me through how we can pull it off, and why he thinks a major part of this energy singularity will be powered by solar. His views are contrarian, but he came armed to defend them.Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.SPONSORS- Lighthouse helps frontier technology companies like Cursor and Physical Intelligence navigate the U.S. immigration system and hire top talent from around the world. Lighthouse handles everything for you, maximizing the probability of visa approval while minimizing the work you have to do. Learn more at lighthousehq.com/employers- To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.TIMESTAMPS(00:00:00) – Why doesn’t China win by default?(00:08:28) – Why hyperscalers choose natural gas over solar(00:18:01) – Solar's astonishing learning rates(00:27:02) – How to build 50,000 acre solar-powered data centers(00:40:24) – Environmental regulations blocking clean energy(00:44:04) – Batteries replacing the grid(00:49:14) – GDP is broken, AGI's true value must be measured in total energy use(00:58:45) – Silicon wafers in space with one mind each Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

A deep dive with Lewis Bollard, who leads Open Philanthropy’s strategy for Farmed Animal Welfare, on the surprising economics of the meat industry.Why is factory farming so efficient? How can we make the lives of the 23+ billion animals living on factory farms more bearable? How far off are the moonshots (e.g., brainless chickens, cultivated meats, etc.) to end this mass suffering? And why does the meat industry have such a surprising amount of political influence?For decades, innovation in the meat industry has actually made the conditions for animals worse. Can the next few decades of tech reverse this pattern?Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.Donation match fundraiserThe welfare of animals on factory farms is so systemically neglected that just $1 can help avert 10 years of animal suffering.After learning more about the outsized opportunities to help, I decided to give $250,000 as a donation match to farmkind.giving/dwarkesh. FarmKind directs your contributions to the most effective charities in this area.Please consider contributing, even if it’s a small amount. Together, we can double each other's impact and give a total of $500,000.Bluntly, there are some listeners who are in a position to give much more. Given how neglected this topic is, one such person could singlehandedly change the game for 10s of billions of animals. If you’re considering donating $50k or more, please reach out directly to Lewis and his team by emailing andres@openphilanthropy.org.Timestamps(00:00:00) – The astonishing efficiency of factory farming(00:07:18) – It was a mistake making this about diet(00:09:54) – Tech that’s sparing 100s of millions of animals/year(00:16:16) – Brainless chickens and higher welfare breeds(00:28:21) – $1 can prevent 10 years of animal suffering(00:37:26) – Situation in China and the developing world(00:41:41) – How the meat lobby got a lock on Congress(00:53:23) – Business structure of the meat industry(00:57:42) – Corporate campaigns are underrated Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

After my last lecture series with Sarah Paine ended, I still had so many questions. I knew we’d only scratched the surface of Sarah’s scholarship, so I immediately invited her back for another series: she graciously agreed, and we’ll be releasing the results online over the coming weeks and months!This first lecture is focused on the balance of power in East Asia at the turn of the 20th century. Specifically, how did Japan (population 47M) defeat China (400M) and Russia (130M) to become Asia's dominant power?For me, the most interesting thing was that Japan's surprise attack on Port Arthur at the beginning of the Russo-Japanese War (1904) helps us understand why Japan might have thought Pearl Harbor would work.Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.Sponsors* Google’s Veo 3 helps us visualize the hypothetical scenarios that often come up during our interviews. Veo’s ability to generate both video and audio—all with incredible realism—makes it perfect for bringing our content to life. If you have a Google AI Pro or Ultra plan, you can try it in Gemini today by visiting gemini.google.* Hudson River Trading is one of the world's top quantitative trading firms. Responsible for around 15% of all U.S. equities trading volume, HRT powers their trades with cutting-edge deep learning models. Their in-house AI team does fundamental ML research and then applies it to some of the most competitive markets in the world. If you’re interested in joining them, you can learn more at hudsonrivertrading.com/dwarkesh.To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.Timestamps(00:00:00) – Japan’s Meiji reforms(00:14:44) – Trans-Siberian railway & Japan’s 3-year window for empire(00:29:58) – The most important battle in the Russo-Japanese war(00:48:38) – China’s implosion: imperialism, civil wars, and opium(00:59:31) – Was Russia on track to dominate Asia?(01:14:20) – Pearl Harbor (1941) vs surprise attack of Port Arthur (1904)(01:34:03) – Why big countries still lose wars(01:46:56) – Grand strategy for small countries Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

The Stephen Kotkin episode. Kotkin is arguably the world’s foremost expert on Joseph Stalin and has written a massive 2-volume biography on him (with a 3rd volume in the works).No other individual had more of a profound impact on the 20th century than Stalin. He held the power of life and death over every single person across 11 time zones, and he killed tens of millions of people, utterly consumed by an ideology aimed at building paradise on Earth.And, he was one half of the biggest and most consequential military confrontation in history (even if Hitler didn’t prove to be his match).Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.Sponsors* Lighthouse is THE fastest immigration solution for the technology industry. All they need is your resume or LinkedIn profile to tell you which visas you’re most eligible for, and they’ll send you this eligibility document for free, no commitment required. Get started today at https://www.lighthousehq.com/ref/Dwarkesh.To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.Timestamps(00:00:00) – Was the tsarist regime the lesser of 2 evils?(00:23:45) – The peasants brought Lenin to power, then he enslaved them(00:37:38) – Why did so many go along with enforced famine and the Great Terror?(01:02:26) – Today’s leftist civil war(01:13:01) – Doesn’t CCP deserve credit for China's growth?(01:35:13) – Why didn't somebody just kill Stalin?(01:52:45) – Overcoming the pathologies of communism with tech: USSR vs China Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

I’ve had a lot of discussions on my podcast where we haggle out timelines to AGI. Some guests think it’s 20 years away - others 2 years. Here’s an audio version of where my thoughts stand as of June 2025. If you want to read the original post, you can check it out here. Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

George Church is the godfather of modern synthetic biology and has been involved with basically every major biotech breakthrough in the last few decades.Professor Church thinks that these improvements (e.g., orders of magnitude decrease in sequencing & synthesis costs, precise gene editing tools like CRISPR, AlphaFold-type AIs, & the ability to conduct massively parallel multiplex experiments) have put us on the verge of some massive payoffs: de-aging, de-extinction, biobots that combine the best of human and natural engineering, and (unfortunately) weaponized mirror life.Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.Sponsors* WorkOS Radar ensures your product is ready for AI agents. Radar is an anti-fraud solution that categorizes different types of automated traffic, blocking harmful bots while allowing helpful agents. Future-proof your roadmap today at workos.com/radar.* Scale is building the infrastructure for smarter, safer AI. In addition to their Data Foundry, they recently released Scale Evaluation, a tool that diagnoses model limitations. Learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh.* Gemini 2.5 Pro was invaluable during our prep for this episode: it perfectly explained complex biology and helped us understand the most important papers. Gemini’s recently improved structure and style also made using it surprisingly enjoyable. Start building with it today at https://aistudio.google.comTo sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.Timestamps(0:00:00) – Aging solved by 2050(0:07:37) – Finding the master switch for any trait(0:19:50) – Weaponized mirror life(0:30:40) – Why hasn’t sequencing/synthesis led to biotech revolution?(0:50:26) – Impact of AGI on biology research progress(1:00:35) – Biobots that use the best of biological and human engineering(1:05:09) – Odds of life in universe(1:09:57) – Is DNA the ultimate data storage?(1:13:55) – Curing rare diseases with genetic counseling(1:22:23) – NIH & NSF budget cuts(1:25:26) – How one lab spawned 100 biotech companies Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Arthur Kroeber is a leading researcher on Chinese tech and macro, a founding partner at Gavekal Dragonomics, and author of "China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know." It's the most useful, detailed resource I've found of how China actually works.On this episode, we discuss how China achieved high-tech manufacturing dominance, and where they'll go from here. By Arthur’s account, the Chinese government is like a giant VC fund: they decide on key priorities and then spend hundreds of billions of dollars subsidizing ruthless competition at the local level. They are willing to lose huge amounts of money for a few of their bets to pay off: at China’s scale, effectiveness matters more than efficiency.There's also a growing bipartisan consensus that we need to combat China's rise. This doesn’t make much sense to me. China is a big, powerful country at the frontier in many fields, and its economy is intricately tied in with our own. Being instinctively adversarial is both unsustainable and risky. Arthur and I discuss how we can create a productive, mutually beneficial version of this relationship.Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.Sponsors* Scale is building the infrastructure for smarter, safer AI. In addition to their Data Foundry, they recently released Scale Evaluation, a tool that diagnoses model limitations. Learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh.* WorkOS Radar ensures your product’s free trials go to actual users. Radar uses 80+ signals to distinguish malicious bots from real people, eliminating costly free-tier abuse. See why companies like Cursor, Perplexity, and OpenAI use Radar by visiting workos.com/radar.* Lighthouse is THE fastest immigration solution for the technology industry. They help you understand your options and navigate applications for expert visas like the O-1A and EB-1A. Explore which visa is right for you at https://www.lighthousehq.com/ref/Dwarkesh.To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.Timestamps(00:00:00) – We should reconcile with China(00:21:21) – BYD, Tesla, & Chinese EV industry(00:36:05) – Will China have a Japan-style financial crisis?(00:44:39) – Local debt situation is manageable(00:57:28) – If CCP is so competent, why isn’t China richer?(01:05:08) – How China keeps tech under control(01:33:45) – Does China win AI?(01:43:34) – Communication with China key for AI safety(02:10:08) – What foreigners get wrong about China(02:17:32) – China-US relationship future Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Ken Rogoff is the former chief economist of the IMF, a professor of Economics at Harvard, and author of the newly released Our Dollar, Your Problem and This Time is Different.On this episode, Ken predicts that, within the next decade, the US will have a debt-induced inflation crisis, but not a Japan-type financial crisis (the latter is much worse, and can make a country poorer for generations).Ken also explains how China is trapped: in order to solve their current problems, they’ll keep leaning on financial repression and state-directed investment, which only makes their situation worse.We also discuss the erosion of dollar dominance, why there will be a rebalancing toward foreign equities, how AGI will impact the deficit and interest rate, and much more!Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.Sponsors* WorkOS gives your product all the features that enterprise customers need, without derailing your roadmap. Skip months of engineering effort and start selling to enterprises today at workos.com.* Scale is building the infrastructure for smarter, safer AI. In addition to their Data Foundry, they recently released Scale Evaluation, a tool that diagnoses model limitations. Learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh.* Gemini Live API lets you have natural, real-time, interactions with Gemini. You can talk to it like you were talking to another person, stream video to show it your surroundings, and share screen to give it context. Try it now by clicking the “Stream” tab on ai.dev.To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.Timestamps(00:00:00) – China is stagnating(00:25:46) – How the US broke Japan's economy(00:37:06) – America's inflation crisis is coming(01:02:20) – Will AGI solve the US deficit?(01:07:11) – Why interest rates will go up(01:10:55) – US equities will underperform(01:22:24) – The erosion of dollar dominance Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

On this episode, I chat with Victor Shih about all things China. We discuss China’s massive local debt crisis, the CCP’s views on AI, what happens after Xi, and more.Victor Shih is an expert on the Chinese political system, as well as their banking and fiscal policies, and he has amassed more biographical data on the Chinese elite than anyone else in the world. He teaches at UC San Diego, where he also directs the 21st Century China Center.Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.Sponsors* Scale is building the infrastructure for smarter, safer AI. In addition to their Data Foundry, they just released Scale Evaluation, a tool that diagnoses model limitations. Learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh.* WorkOS is how top AI companies ship critical enterprise features without burning months of engineering time. If you need features like SSO, audit logs, or user provisioning, head to workos.com.To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.Timestamps(00:00:00) – Is China more decentralized than the US?(00:03:16) – How the Politburo Standing Committee makes decisions(00:21:07) – Xi’s right hand man in charge of AGI(00:35:37) – DeepSeek was trained to track CCP policy(00:45:35) – Local government debt crisis(00:50:00) – BYD, CATL, & financial repression(00:58:12) – How corruption leads to overbuilding(01:10:46) – Probability of Taiwan invasion(01:18:56) – Succession after Xi(01:25:10) – Future growth forecasts Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

New episode with my good friends Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken. Sholto focuses on scaling RL and Trenton researches mechanistic interpretability, both at Anthropic.We talk through what’s changed in the last year of AI research; the new RL regime and how far it can scale; how to trace a model’s thoughts; and how countries, workers, and students should prepare for AGI.See you next year for v3. Here’s last year’s episode, btw. Enjoy!Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.----------SPONSORS* WorkOS ensures that AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic don't have to spend engineering time building enterprise features like access controls or SSO. It’s not that they don't need these features; it's just that WorkOS gives them battle-tested APIs that they can use for auth, provisioning, and more. Start building today at workos.com.* Scale is building the infrastructure for safer, smarter AI. Scale’s Data Foundry gives major AI labs access to high-quality data to fuel post-training, while their public leaderboards help assess model capabilities. They also just released Scale Evaluation, a new tool that diagnoses model limitations. If you’re an AI researcher or engineer, learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh.* Lighthouse is THE fastest immigration solution for the technology industry. They specialize in expert visas like the O-1A and EB-1A, and they’ve already helped companies like Cursor, Notion, and Replit navigate U.S. immigration. Explore which visa is right for you at lighthousehq.com/ref/Dwarkesh.To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.----------TIMESTAMPS(00:00:00) – How far can RL scale?(00:16:27) – Is continual learning a key bottleneck?(00:31:59) – Model self-awareness(00:50:32) – Taste and slop(01:00:51) – How soon to fully autonomous agents?(01:15:17) – Neuralese(01:18:55) – Inference compute will bottleneck AGI(01:23:01) – DeepSeek algorithmic improvements(01:37:42) – Why are LLMs ‘baby AGI’ but not AlphaZero?(01:45:38) – Mech interp(01:56:15) – How countries should prepare for AGI(02:10:26) – Automating white collar work(02:15:35) – Advice for students Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Based on my essay about AI firms.Huge thanks to Petr and his team for bringing this to life!Watch on YouTube.Thanks to Google for sponsoring. We used their Veo 2 model to make this entire video—it generated everything from the photorealistic humans to the claymation octopuses. If you’re a Gemini Advanced user, you can try Veo 2 now in the Gemini app. Just select Veo 2 in the dropdown, and type your video idea in the prompt bar. Get started today by going to gemini.google.com.To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise. Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Zuck on:* Llama 4, benchmark gaming* Intelligence explosion, business models for AGI* DeepSeek/China, export controls, & Trump* Orion glasses, AI relationships, and preventing reward-hacking from our tech.Watch on Youtube; listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.----------SPONSORS* Scale is building the infrastructure for safer, smarter AI. Scale’s Data Foundry gives major AI labs access to high-quality data to fuel post-training, while their public leaderboards help assess model capabilities. They also just released Scale Evaluation, a new tool that diagnoses model limitations. If you’re an AI researcher or engineer, learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh.* WorkOS Radar protects your product against bots, fraud, and abuse. Radar uses 80+ signals to identify and block common threats and harmful behavior. Join companies like Cursor, Perplexity, and OpenAI that have eliminated costly free-tier abuse by visiting workos.com/radar.* Lambda is THE cloud for AI developers, with over 50,000 NVIDIA GPUs ready to go for startups, enterprises, and hyperscalers. By focusing exclusively on AI, Lambda provides cost-effective compute supported by true experts, including a serverless API serving top open-source models like Llama 4 or DeepSeek V3-0324 without rate limits, and available for a free trial at lambda.ai/dwarkesh.To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/p/advertise.----------TIMESTAMPS(00:00:00) – How Llama 4 compares to other models(00:11:34) – Intelligence explosion(00:26:36) – AI friends, therapists & girlfriends(00:35:10) – DeepSeek & China(00:39:49) – Open source AI(00:54:15) – Monetizing AGI(00:58:32) – The role of a CEO(01:02:04) – Is big tech aligning with Trump?(01:07:10) – 100x productivity Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

800 years before the Black Death, the very same bacteria ravaged Rome, killing 60%+ of the population in many areas.Also, back-to-back volcanic eruptions caused a mini Ice Age, leaving Rome devastated by famine and disease.I chatted with historian Kyle Harper about this and much else:* Rome as a massive slave society* Why humans are more disease-prone than other animals* How agriculture made us physically smaller (Caesar at 5'5" was considered tall)Watch on Youtube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.----------SPONSORS* WorkOS makes it easy to become enterprise-ready. They have APIs for all the most common enterprise requirements—things like authentication, permissions, and encryption—so you can quickly plug them in and get back to building your core product. If you want to make your product enterprise-ready, join companies like Cursor, Perplexity and OpenAI, and head to workos.com.* Scale’s Data Foundry gives major AI labs access to high-quality data to fuel post-training, including advanced reasoning capabilities. If you’re an AI researcher or engineer, learn how Scale’s Data Foundry and research lab, SEAL, can help you go beyond the current frontier of capabilities at scale.com/dwarkeshTo sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.----------KYLE'S BOOKS* The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire* Plagues upon the Earth: Disease and the Course of Human History* Slavery in the Late Roman World, AD 275-425----------TIMESTAMPS(00:00:00) - Plague's impact on Rome's collapse(00:06:24) - Rome's little Ice Age(00:11:51) - Why did progress stall in Rome's Golden Age?(00:23:55) - Slavery in Rome(00:36:22) - Was agriculture a mistake?(00:47:42) - Disease's impact on cognitive function(00:59:46) - Plague in India and Central Asia(01:05:16) - The next pandemic(01:16:48) - How Kyle uses LLMs(01:18:51) - De-extinction of lost species Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu have 2045+ timelines, think the whole "alignment" framing is wrong, don't think an intelligence explosion is plausible, but are convinced we'll see explosive economic growth (economy literally doubling every year or two).This discussion offers a totally different scenario than my recent interview with Scott and Daniel.Ege and Tamay are the co-founders of Mechanize (disclosure - I’m an angel investor), a startup dedicated to fully automating work. Before founding Mechanize, Ege and Tamay worked on AI forecasts at Epoch AI. Watch on Youtube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.----------Sponsors* WorkOS makes it easy to become enterprise-ready. With simple APIs for essential enterprise features like SSO and SCIM, WorkOS helps companies like Vercel, Plaid, and OpenAI meet the requirements of their biggest customers. To learn more about how they can help you do the same, visit workos.com* Scale’s Data Foundry gives major AI labs access to high-quality data to fuel post-training, including advanced reasoning capabilities. If you’re an AI researcher or engineer, learn about how Scale’s Data Foundry and research lab, SEAL, can help you go beyond the current frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh* Google's Gemini Pro 2.5 is the model we use the most at Dwarkesh Podcast: it helps us generate transcripts, identify interesting clips, and code up new tools. If you want to try it for yourself, it's now available in Preview with higher rate limits! Start building with it today at aistudio.google.com.----------Timestamps(00:00:00) - AGI will take another 3 decades(00:22:27) - Even reasoning models lack animal intelligence (00:45:04) - Intelligence explosion(01:00:57) - Ege & Tamay’s story(01:06:24) - Explosive economic growth(01:33:00) - Will there be a separate AI economy?(01:47:08) - Can we predictably influence the future?(02:19:48) - Arms race dynamic(02:29:48) - Is superintelligence a real thing?(02:35:45) - Reasons not to expect explosive growth(02:49:00) - Fully automated firms(02:54:43) - Will central planning work after AGI?(02:58:20) - Career advice Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Scott and Daniel break down every month from now until the 2027 intelligence explosion.Scott Alexander is author of the highly influential blogs Slate Star Codex and Astral Codex Ten. Daniel Kokotajlo resigned from OpenAI in 2024, rejecting a non-disparagement clause and risking millions in equity to speak out about AI safety.We discuss misaligned hive minds, Xi and Trump waking up, and automated Ilyas researching AI progress.I came in skeptical, but I learned a tremendous amount by bouncing my objections off of them. I highly recommend checking out their new scenario planning document, AI 2027Watch on Youtube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.----------Sponsors* WorkOS helps today’s top AI companies get enterprise-ready. OpenAI, Cursor, Perplexity, Anthropic and hundreds more use WorkOS to quickly integrate features required by enterprise buyers. To learn more about how you can make the leap to enterprise, visit workos.com* Jane Street likes to know what's going on inside the neural nets they use. They just released a black-box challenge for Dwarkesh listeners, and I had a blast trying it out. See if you have the skills to crack it at janestreet.com/dwarkesh* Scale’s Data Foundry gives major AI labs access to high-quality data to fuel post-training, including advanced reasoning capabilities. If you’re an AI researcher or engineer, learn about how Scale’s Data Foundry and research lab, SEAL, can help you go beyond the current frontier at scale.com/dwarkeshTo sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.----------Timestamps(00:00:00) - AI 2027(00:06:56) - Forecasting 2025 and 2026(00:14:41) - Why LLMs aren't making discoveries(00:24:33) - Debating intelligence explosion(00:49:45) - Can superintelligence actually transform science?(01:16:54) - Cultural evolution vs superintelligence(01:24:05) - Mid-2027 branch point(01:32:30) - Race with China(01:44:47) - Nationalization vs private anarchy(02:03:22) - Misalignment(02:14:52) - UBI, AI advisors, & human future(02:23:00) - Factory farming for digital minds(02:26:52) - Daniel leaving OpenAI(02:35:15) - Scott's blogging advice Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

I recorded an AMA! I had a blast chatting with my friends Trenton Bricken and Sholto Douglas. We discussed my new book, career advice given AGI, how I pick guests, how I research for the show, and some other nonsense.My book, “The Scaling Era: An Oral History of AI, 2019-2025” is available in digital format now. Preorders for the print version are also open!Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.Timestamps(0:00:00) - Book launch announcement(0:04:57) - AI models not making connections across fields(0:10:52) - Career advice given AGI(0:15:20) - Guest selection criteria(0:17:19) - Choosing to pursue the podcast long-term(0:25:12) - Reading habits(0:31:10) - Beard deepdive(0:33:02) - Who is best suited for running an AI lab?(0:35:16) - Preparing for fast AGI timelines(0:40:50) - Growing the podcast Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Humans have not succeeded because of our raw intelligence.Marooned European explorers regularly starved to death in areas where foragers thrived for 1000s of years.I’ve always found this cultural evolution deeply mysterious.How do you discover the 10 steps for processing cassava so it won’t give you cyanide poisoning simply by trial and error?Has the human brain declined in size over the last 10,000 years because we outsourced cultural evolution to a larger collective brain?The most interesting part of the podcast is Henrich’s explanation of how the Catholic Church unintentionally instigated the Industrial Revolution through the dismantling of intensive kinship systems in medieval Europe.Watch on Youtube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.----------SponsorsScale partners with major AI labs like Meta, Google Deepmind, and OpenAI. Through Scale’s Data Foundry, labs get access to high-quality data to fuel post-training, including advanced reasoning capabilities. If you’re an AI researcher or engineer, learn about how Scale’s Data Foundry and research lab, SEAL, can help you go beyond the current frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh.To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/p/advertise.----------Joseph’s booksThe WEIRDest People in the WorldThe Secret of Our Success----------Timestamps(0:00:00) - Humans didn’t succeed because of raw IQ(0:09:27) - How cultural evolution works(0:20:48) - Why is human brain size declining?(0:32:00) - Will AGI have superhuman cultural learning?(0:42:34) - Why Industrial Revolution happened in Europe(0:55:30) - Why China, Rome, India got left behind(1:21:09) - Loss of cultural variance in modern world(1:31:20) - Is individual genius real?(1:43:49) - IQ and collective brains Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe