Behind the Markets Podcast

Show from 02/06/26 Host Jeremy Schwartz discusses recent volatility across asset classes, including sharp drawdowns in commodities, bitcoin, and select software stocks. (1:38) Jeremy continues the conversation with Blake Heimann and Michael Fridman, former PM at a major Israeli insurer, and the WisdomTree research team. The discussion centers around AI capital expenditure, the sustainability of tech valuations, and the rotation from mega-cap names into more niche infrastructure and semiconductor plays. Michael and the team also touch on geopolitical factors, including the Japanese elections and Middle East tensions, and examine implications of consumer shifts like Pepsi’s price cut strategy for broader market and advertising trends. Michael Fridman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelfridman23/ Blake Heimann: https://www.linkedin.com/in/blakeheimann/ WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 01/30/26 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the appointment of Kevin Warsh as incoming Fed Chair, expressing optimism about his independence and stance on inflation. The Professor also comments on the latest inflation print, the Fed’s balance sheet strategy, and the potential impact of tariffs and money supply trends. (13:43) Jeremy is joined by Chris Gannatti, Sam Rines, and Jeff Weniger for a wide-ranging conversation covering tech earnings from Meta and Microsoft, the implications of AI investments on memory and fiber infrastructure, and recent commodity surges in metals like silver and copper. They also explore geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Cuba, European investor sentiment toward U.S. equities and currencies, commodity allocation trends, and macroeconomic developments in Italy with WisdomTree’s Peter Braganti. Piergiacomo Peter Braganti, Director, Macro Research at WisdomTree: https://x.com/peterbraganti Chris started a substack, follow him here: https://christophergannatti.substack.com/ WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 01/23/26 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss updates on the Fed chair race, government shutdown prospects, and delayed tariff rulings. The Professor sees strong economic momentum, rising productivity, and continued strength in value and small-cap stocks. (11:23) Jeremy continues the conversation with Dave Goodson, Head of Securitized Credit at Voya, who discusses bond market reactions to recent policy announcements, including the $200 billion GSE purchase program and its impact on mortgage-backed securities. The group explores trends in spreads, non-agency RMBS opportunities, policy shifts affecting the housing market, and global macro forces including Japan and Iran. They close with a focus on AI-driven infrastructure investments and how they are impacting securitized credit markets. Dave Goodson is a managing director, head of securitized fixed income and a senior portfolio manager for non-agency and agency mortgage-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities strategies at Voya Investment Management. Prior to joining Voya, he was a principal at an independent investment bank focused on asset-backed commercial paper transactions. Previously, Dave began his career as a vice president in Wachovia Securities’ asset-backed finance group, marketing and executing securitizations for the bank’s corporate clients. He earned a BS in management from the Georgia Institute of Technology Voya: https://advisors.voya.com/ WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 09/16/26 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel assess recent market data, including mixed signals from CPI and PPI, speculation about Q4 GDP being between 2% and 5%, and jobless claims falling below 200K. Professor Siegel also discusses the Fed’s direction amid political distractions and sees continued momentum for small caps amid easing mortgage spreads. (22:32) Jeremy is joined by WisdomTree’s Jeff Weniger, Chris Gannatti, and Sam Rines to dive into market rotation, the AI narrative, and geopolitical developments. The group explores physical AI with Tesla, credit card rate caps and their implications on credit access, and how crypto and stablecoin regulations may disrupt traditional banking. They also cover a K-shaped economy reflected in early earnings reports and wrap with observations from Asia, the rise of Vietnamese EVs, and speculation on the U.S. revisiting a Greenland acquisition. WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 09/01/26 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the strong jobs report, a surprising GDP revision from the Atlanta Fed, and the evolving political developments in Venezuela and Iran. The Professor also offers thoughts on Trump’s potential Fed chair picks, productivity growth, and AI's impact on markets. (17:09) Jeremy continues with Sam Rines to dive deeper into the geopolitics of oil in Venezuela and Guyana, how it impacts WTI pricing, and why refiners and MLPs may benefit. They explore defense and AI-related investment opportunities in Japan and Europe, potential tariff developments from the Supreme Court, and discuss the recent performance and positioning of gold and commodity markets amid inflation and geopolitical risk.. WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 02/01/26 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the strong start to 2026, noting positive holiday spending, a dip in jobless claims, and the potential for a 3% Q4 GDP growth. Professor Siegel outlines three key market events to watch in January: the risk of a government shutdown, the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs, and the selection of the new Fed chair. (12:34) Jeremy continues with guests Sam Rines and Jeff Weniger, who delve into geopolitical tensions impacting oil markets, the Fed’s potential policy direction, and the outlook for global equity markets. The group discusses AI competition between China and the U.S., emerging strength in Japan and India, and the implications of upcoming IPOs like SpaceX and OpenAI. They also touch on commodity allocations, shifts in value and growth indices, and how holiday spending reflects broader economic resilience. WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 12/19/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the final CPI report of the year and the broader inflation outlook. The Prof notes that shelter components are finally weighing on inflation, and expects a continued downward trend into 2026. He sees room for the Fed to cut rates if the economy weakens, and believes markets are well-positioned heading into the new year. (09:03) Jeremy continues with guest Andreas Kern, founder of Wikifolio, to explore how German retail investors are positioning for 2026. Andreas shares data on shifting equity allocations, including a strong tilt toward industrials, basic materials, and value strategies. The conversation covers defense spending, AI narratives, Tesla, underrepresentation of equities in German portfolios, and sentiment around crypto and gold. Jeremy and the panel also weigh in on market rotation, yield curves, and long-term inflation expectations, offering a global perspective on evolving market themes. Wikifolio: https://www.wikifolio.com/en/int/home Andreas Kern: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andreas-kern-905214/?originalSubdomain=at For more information on the index Jim Bianco discussed: https://www.biancoadvisors.com/index-updates/ WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 12/12/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel reflect on the Fed's latest meeting and its dovish tone, noting signs of a market rotation beyond the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. Professor Siegel highlighted potential market risks from a Supreme Court tariff ruling and a possible government shutdown, while remaining optimistic on inflation and economic momentum heading into 2026. (11:20) Jeremy continues with Chris Gannatti and Sam Rines, exploring AI’s evolving role in corporate strategy and earnings. The conversation covers OpenAI's latest model, Oracle's bid to join hyperscalers, and potential oil market shifts tied to Venezuela. They also analyze consumer strength through earnings from firms like Costco and Lululemon, and discuss how software companies must adapt or risk obsolescence in the AI age. WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/

Show from 12/05/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel opened this week’s episode reflecting on the changing nature of Black Friday, ongoing consumer strength, and the outlook for interest rate cuts amid mixed economic data. The Professor discussed Kevin Hassett’s emergence as a top Fed Chair candidate, tech sector volatility, and competition in the AI space. (10:39) Jeremy continues with Sam Rines and Chris Gannatti for a special Thanksgiving episode, joined by their children to explore youth shopping trends. The group covers holiday consumer behavior, competition among AI models and chipmakers, and potential market overreactions to recent shifts in sentiment. They also discuss the implications of energy inventory dynamics and underappreciated tech plays like Amazon and Apple, rounding out with a preview of AI’s future impact on education, investing, and consumer preferences. Dovile Silenskyte, CFA Director, Digital Assets Research at WisdomTree: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dovilesilenskyte WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 11/28/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel opened this week’s episode reflecting on the changing nature of Black Friday, ongoing consumer strength, and the outlook for interest rate cuts amid mixed economic data. The Professor discussed Kevin Hassett’s emergence as a top Fed Chair candidate, tech sector volatility, and competition in the AI space. (10:39) Jeremy continues with Sam Rines and Chris Gannatti for a special Thanksgiving episode, joined by their children to explore youth shopping trends. The group covers holiday consumer behavior, competition among AI models and chipmakers, and potential market overreactions to recent shifts in sentiment. They also discuss the implications of energy inventory dynamics and underappreciated tech plays like Amazon and Apple, rounding out with a preview of AI’s future impact on education, investing, and consumer preferences. Emma Shine Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/artist/6wUgQ9GHl0eKFwqw3Mqk2p?si=G1N5Uz__RxKgk12Wmd4-HA Emma Shine Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@EmmaShine-singg/shorts WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 11/21/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel unpack the week's key market themes, focusing on Nvidia’s earnings volatility, jobless claims trends, and potential monetary policy shifts. The Professor highlights creeping continuing claims, waning private credit enthusiasm, and questions surrounding AI investment’s return on capital. (16:07) Jeremy continues with Sam and Jeff to assess Nvidia’s post-earnings dip, Google's AI strides with Gemini 3, and shifting tech leadership. The group explores value stocks’ evolving makeup, consumer strength as seen in Walmart's earnings, and potential geopolitical shifts in Venezuela’s oil market. They wrap with views on holiday spending, U.S. housing dynamics, and retail sector resilience. WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 11/14/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the market reaction to the government shutdown, the Fed's hawkish stance, and AI-driven market surges. The Professor critiques the Fed’s focus on inflation drivers like insurance rates, revisits debates on equity-risk premiums at a recent CFA Society event, and addresses the long-term outlook for stocks versus bonds. (15:18) Jeremy is joined by Jeff, Chris, and Sam for a wide-ranging discussion on the AI-driven tech buildout and compute shortages, including concerns about capital expenditure sustainability. They explore new affordability strategies like the proposed 50-year mortgage, assess policy developments from the Trump administration, and evaluate international market dynamics between China and India. The episode closes with insights on quality factor rotation and concerns around the sustainability of current tech valuations. WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 11/07/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss conflicting jobs data amid the government shutdown, political fallout from the recent elections, and the implications of potential Supreme Court rulings on tariffs. The Professor warns about the possible economic drag from the shutdown during the holiday season and offers his market perspective, noting AI investment strength and skepticism around market bubble fears. (15:00) Jeremy continues with guests Jeff Weniger, Chris Gannatti, and Sam Rines to unpack the Supreme Court's tariff case, recent AI market volatility, and the implications of energy constraints on future data center development. They explore earnings season surprises, Japan's market volatility tied to SoftBank, and Warren Buffett's continued investment activity. The conversation closes with in-depth views on India's economic trajectory, gambling markets' impact on traditional betting operators, and the risks and hype cycles in crypto and equity speculation. WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 10/31/25 Jeremy is joined by Sam Rines, Jeff Weniger, and Chris Gannatti, who analyze big tech earnings from Amazon, Meta, and others, emphasizing the early stages of the AI investment boom. The group discusses the infrastructure demands of data centers, energy policy challenges, and geopolitical developments following Trump’s Asia tour. They close by exploring how companies beyond tech are benefiting from AI, implications of potential government shutdowns, and the resilience of consumer spending ahead of the holidays. (31:34) Jeremy continues with Professor Siegel who discusses the Fed’s unclear stance on rate cuts, with Siegel noting stronger-than-expected economic data and robust market performance. They analyze Powell’s cautious comments and anticipate the importance of upcoming holiday spending data, while also touching on market resilience, QT ending, and how the current environment differs from past bubbles WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Are We Too Optimistic? by Behind the Markets

Show from 10/17/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discussed recent signs of credit stress and how markets are reacting to pressures in private credit. Professor Siegel emphasized that while some private credit deals may go bad, there is no broader systemic risk, citing strong earnings from major banks as evidence. He maintained that the bull market remains intact and projected a 25-basis point Fed rate cut as a near certainty, while dismissing Bitcoin’s current performance as a failure in short-term diversification. He also commented on geopolitical developments, inflation data delays, and anticipated gold’s continued rise amid growing interest in blockchain-based assets. (12:06) Jeremy continues the conversation with Sam Rines, Jeff Weniger, and Chris Gannatti, beginning with takeaways from strong earnings by American Express and Snap-On, signaling ongoing strength in consumer and industrial spending. The group discusses stress in regional banks and private equity, rising investor focus on gold as part of a “60/20/20” portfolio, and narratives surrounding currency debasement. Chris dives into developments in autonomous vehicles, with Waymo’s expansion into London and Houston, and provides updates on OpenAI’s monetization and user growth strategies, suggesting it may evolve into a “super app.” They also explore international themes, including Japanese market opportunities tied to political shifts and valuation gaps, with Sam and Jeremy highlighting investor apathy and potential upside. Jeff discusses the divergence between surging precious metals and falling oil prices, raising questions about the macroeconomic outlook and its implications for Fed rate cuts. Sam adds that U.S.-China trade talks are likely to yield minor but positive outcomes, such as soybean purchases, which could help stabilize markets. The show closes with Jeff contrasting consumer spending forecasts from MasterCard and Deloitte, raising skepticism about survey-based holiday retail projections. Chris and Sam then reflect on investor behavior, particularly among younger generations holding excessive cash allocations. Finally, the team touches on biotech and quantum computing, emphasizing the long timelines and high uncertainty around commercializing innovations in these sectors, despite strong investor interest. WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 10/10/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the market’s resilience amid a continued government shutdown, emphasizing the positive momentum driven by AI and the broader economic environment. Professor Siegel warns about the potential for negative consumer sentiment if the shutdown lingers and points to recent data and global central bank comparisons to support the case for U.S. rate cuts. He also addresses the state of private credit markets, gold and bitcoin trends, and implications of current tariff levels, while noting AI remains a strong market driver. (13:55) Jeremy continues the conversation with Jeff Weniger and Sam Rines before welcoming guest Jim Bianco. Sam shares insights from a recent trip to Mexico, noting optimism from local investors and a surprising lack of concern about U.S. tariffs. He also discusses geopolitical tensions and Chinese EV penetration in Mexico. Jeff offers analysis of stress in private credit markets, highlighting the case of First Brands and broader implications for underwriting standards. The episode then transitions to an in-depth discussion with Jim Bianco, who outlines how a stalled flow of immigration could be reshaping the labor market and the Fed's rate path. He explores how AI is already influencing GDP through data center and energy build-outs, compares its trajectory to the internet’s evolution, and discusses long-term inflation expectations shaped by remote work and global segmentation. Jim also reflects on Fed governance and independence, challenges in interpreting the yield curve, and his fixed income index strategy that leverages ETFs to express macro views. He closes by reaffirming his “4-5-6” return framework and how AI-driven equity gains are masking broader market underperformance. Jim Bianco on X: https://x.com/biancoresearch Website: https://www.biancoresearch.com/visitor-home/ WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 10/03/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest market conditions, highlighting the weakness in the ADP jobs report, stable jobless claims, and a slight decline in consumer confidence. Professor Siegel emphasizes that while the economic data points to some softening, there is no indication of a sharp downturn. He points to this quarter as a critical test for consumer spending amid new tariffs and holiday pressures, observing that inflation in housing and rents remains muted. Siegel also discusses monetary policy and comments on the growing importance of AI, the performance of major tech stocks like Tesla, and the continued divergence between large-cap growth and value stocks. Jeremy continues the show with WisdomTree colleagues Chris Gannatti, Sam Rines, and Jeff Weniger, with Chris diving into recent insights from top voices in the semiconductor and AI space, noting the massive CapEx going into data centers and compute infrastructure. Sam expands on the potential productivity boost from AI agents and the broader ecosystem investments benefiting industrials like Caterpillar. Jeff provides a macro take on central bank policy, expressing skepticism about the timing of rate cuts amid rising equity and commodity markets, and debates the real impact of tariffs. (32:12) In the second half, Jeremy presents a special segment recorded live from the Jacobs-Levy Quant Conference with Professor Bob Korajczyk of Northwestern University. Korajczyk shares research on intangible assets and their role in asset pricing, detailing how adjusted earnings that account for R&D and SG&A provide a more predictive measure of long-term profitability. He explains how this adjustment enhances factor models, offers downside protection characteristics, and discusses implications for accounting standards, portfolio construction, and international investing. Guest: Robert A. Korajczyk is Senior Associate Dean, Faculty and Research and the Harry G. Guthmann Professor of Finance and co-director of the Center for Financial Institutions and Markets. At Kellogg, Korajczyk has previously served as Senior Associate Dean: Curriculum and Teaching, Chair of the Department of Finance, Director of Graduate Studies for the Department of Finance, and Director of the Zell Center for Risk Research. He has held visiting faculty appointments at the University of Chicago, the Vienna University of Economics and Business, the University of Melbourne, the University of Vienna, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Korajczyk received his BA, MBA, and PhD degrees from the University of Chicago. Robert on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robert-korajczyk-b1565714/ WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 09/26/25 Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel review the week’s key economic developments, focusing first on inflation metrics with the PCE deflator and personal income/spending data matching expectations. Professor Siegel emphasizes the significance of stronger-than-expected durable goods orders and a narrowed trade deficit, which have led to upgraded Q3 GDP forecasts from major banks. He also comments on recent remarks from Fed Governor Myron regarding a lower neutral interest rate, citing demographic trends and productivity considerations. The Professor maintains a cautious outlook on the potential impact of tariffs, especially heading into the critical holiday season, and flags the upcoming government shutdown as a potential disruptor to next week’s jobs report. They’re joined by Chris Gannatti, Jeff Weniger, and Sam Rines for a robust discussion that spans trade, technology, and market positioning. They unpack new proposed tariffs from the Trump campaign, assess the durability of corporate strategies for mitigating trade friction, and analyze the AI infrastructure boom—highlighting NVIDIA, OpenAI, and hyperscaler investment cycles. The team debates whether current AI valuations are sustainable, comparing them to past tech cycles, and explore quantum computing as an emerging, though still speculative, theme. The conversation turns to government industrial policy and its role in revitalizing domestic semiconductor manufacturing, particularly around Intel. Finally, they discuss overlooked opportunities in small and mid-cap U.S. equities, noting how rate cuts and strong consumer data, like Costco’s same-store sales, could fuel upside for cyclicals heading into year-end. WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 09/19/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz is joined live from Mallorca by Pierre Debru, Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe, to explore shifting investor sentiment across the continent. Pierre discusses how European investors are reallocating away from the US and toward domestic equities and thematics like defense, nuclear, and rare earths, fueled in part by a weaker dollar. He outlines the renewed interest in defense investing spurred by NATO's 5% GDP spending target, as well as the long-term outlook for Europe’s political and fiscal stability across markets like Greece, Poland, and Italy. The conversation covers capital efficiency, the need for diversification through gold and crypto, and the rise of thematic exposure to quantum computing and AI-related infrastructure. (30:17) Professor Siegel and Kevin Flanagan join to analyze the Fed’s latest 25 basis point rate cut. Professor Siegel emphasizes the strength of the consumer, upward revisions to GDP forecasts, and unity within the Fed despite differing views reflected in the dot plots. He critiques the current path of policy, pointing to lingering inflation concerns from tariffs and the need for further rate cuts amid signs of softening in the labor market. Siegel also discusses falling mortgage premiums, the resilience of housing and business investment, and how investment incentives and AI are likely to benefit small-cap firms over time. Pierre Debru on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/pierre-debru/ Kevin Flanagan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kevin-flanagan-wt/ WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments