The Economy, Stupid

You know what they say about a crisis, suddenly, all sorts of things become possible. During the COVID crisis, the government doubled Newstart, paid wage bills, and allowed access to super - things that had almost no chance of happening. Right now, with the budget just weeks away in the midst of a crisis almost anything is on the table. What may that include?Guests:Tom Crowley, ABC economics reporter. Bob Breunig, tax expert. 

Australia’s birth rate is collapsing, heading for a record low next year, well below the level needed for the population to replace itself. Fewer couples, fewer kids, and a world where ageing societies reshape everything from innovation to taxes. Why is this happening everywhere at once, and what does it mean for your future?Guests: Viva Hammer, ANU population researcher and tax expertMyriam Robin, AFR senior writer

What happens when the economy stops playing by the rules?We’re taught that inflation and unemployment move like a seesaw, one goes up, the other goes down. But sometimes the seesaw snaps. Prices climb and people lose jobs at the same time. It happened dramatically in the 1970s, and with oil prices surging again and global tensions rising people are whispering the word Stagnation once more. Guests: Professor Bob Gregory, one of Australia’s most influential economists, who watched the original outbreak of stagflation unfold and later sat on the Reserve Bank board during another era of economic upheaval.Gareth Hutchens, ABC business and economics reporter who has spent years examining how these big economic shocks ripple through everyday life.

The Reserve Bank says it’ll do whatever it takes to crush inflation, even if it means Australia falls into recession. But for millions of Australians, the pain is already here with petrol prices soaring and mortgage repayments climbing. So did the RBA really have no choice but to lift rates again? Or is this a risk the Bank didn’t need to take?Guests: Gianni La Cava, Former Senior Research Manager at the Reserve Bank of Australia; now Senior Economist at the e61 Institute.Cherelle Murphy, Oceania Chief Economist, EY

From food security to fuelling our air force, the global oil crisis threatens far more than the cost of driving a car. So what happens next?

GDP is meant to measure economic progress, yet even war can make it rise. So what exactly is it measuring?

What happens when the nation’s wealthiest state gets extra funding on top of a needs‑based system? Since 2019, Western Australia has received a special billion‑dollar boost that no other state gets, and now the deal is under review. WA wants it to stay. The rest of the country is paying for it. So is the arrangement justified, or overdue for a rethink?Guests:Saul Eslake, Economic consultant and former chief economist for ANZ and Bank of America Merrill Lynch in AustraliaMatt McKenzie, Economics writer for The West Australian

Australia does something a bit weird: if you make money selling a house or shares, you get taxed at half the rate you’d pay on your actual job. Nice if you’re the one pocketing the profit… not so great if you’re trying to buy your first place and keep getting outbid by investors.People have argued about this discount for years; it’s political TNT. Bill Shorten tried to change it twice and got burned both times. Now Labor’s back in government, the issue’s landed in a Senate inquiry, and it’s shaping up to be the first real showdown between Treasurer Jim Chalmers and newly appointed Opposition Leader Angus Taylor.Is this tax break helping the country or just helping those already ahead? And if we tweaked it… would anything actually get better?Guests: Brendan Coates – Program Director, Housing and Economic Security, Grattan Institute.Cathal Leslie – Generation Z economist who has worked at the Productivity Commission, the Australian Treasury, and the OECD in Paris, now working in the AI sector.

Spending is outpacing revenue, and the budget gap isn’t closing.At the same time, Australia is drifting off track on its emissions targets for 2030, 2035 and 2050.The Superpower Institute has a proposal: a revamped carbon pricing model it says could help fix both.Australians rejected carbon pricing more than a decade ago.The question now is whether the country is ready to reconsider? Guests: Ingrid Burford, Lead, Carbon Pricing and Policy, Superpower InstituteBen Potter, contributing Editor at The EnergySuperpower Institute: The Case for Pricing Pollution: Reducing emissions, strengthening the economy, and delivering a fair share for Australians

The Reserve Bank has lifted rates, and if you’ve got a mortgage, you’ll feel it fast. A typical borrower on a $600,000 loan is up around $90 a month for a single hike, and if more follow, the hit multiplies. Is inflation really back, or is the Bank overreacting? And what would more hikes do to jobs and house prices?Guests: Michael Pasoe, writes for Michael West MediaCherelle Murphy, the Oceania Chief Economist for the consultancy firm EY 

The Reserve Bank looks set to lift interest rates after a year of cuts - adding around $90 a month to a typical $600,000 mortgage. If there are three hikes, that’s an extra $3,200 a year. What does it mean for you? 

A year ago, we were told the housing market was about to cool, but it didn’t. What’s in store for us in the year to come? Guests: Amy Auster, director of Policy Institute AustraliaBen Phillips, principal Research Fellow at the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods

Australia’s mental health system is costly — and full of cracks. What would it take to fix it?

The Australian housing dream is no longer guaranteed. Is it too late to turn things around? 

Some economists say Australia could become a clean-energy superpower — massively rich, world-leading. But how would we get there?

How do companies keep us paying more, and can we fight back?

Most Australians die with more money than they retired with. Are we squirrelling away too much into super — and if so, who benefits?

Economic bubbles inevitably burst, but often leave behind a better world. Can we hope the same for AI?

Does GDP still capture the truth about Australian life?

From sunscreen recalls and childcare failures to tech overreach, the corporate social contract is in crisis