Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Draught beer excise tax has been frozen in Australia and there are calls for the same to be done here.   The goal is to relieve some pressure on local pubs.  It rises in New Zealand automatically every year, while beer consumption has fallen to the lowest on record.   Founder and Director at Abandoned Brewery Tim Ward told Ryan Bridge he questions what the tax is trying to achieve.  He says it's meant to offset alcohol harm and discourage consumption, but it's a blunt instrument.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand homeowners are holding onto their properties for the longest period yet.  A report by Cotality NZ reveals the median hold period for profitable re-sales hit a record 10.1 years for the fourth quarter of last year.  Resale profits have also stabilised, with 88% of homes selling for more than their purchase price.  Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson told Ryan Bridge the housing market is pretty flat, so if you want to make some kind of gain you have to hold on for longer than in the past.  He says there’s a stark difference between those who hold on 10-20 years and have a higher chance of making a profit, versus those who sell after only three or four years, who have a higher chance of making a loss.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Signs of fatigue with another review of the country's Covid-19 response now in the works.  Finance Minister Nicola Willis new inquiry looks at the Reserve Bank's monetary policy decisions, including printing $55 billion.  Findings are to be released just weeks before Election Day.  Massey University business professor Claire Matthews says there's potentially some value in it, but the timing feels like an election ploy.  She told Ryan Bridge we're also now six years past the start of Covid. Matthews says the Reserve Bank has also already done a review and taken lessons from it, so how much more are we going to learn.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Signs of fatigue - with another review of the country's Covid-19 response now in the works.  Finance Minister Nicola Willis new inquiry looks at the Reserve Bank's monetary policy decisions - including printing 55 billion dollars.  Findings are to be released just weeks before Election Day.  Massey University business professor Claire Matthews says there's potentially some value in it - but the timing feels like an election ploy.  She told Ryan Bridge we're also now six years past the start of Covid. Matthews says the Reserve Bank has also already done a review and taken lessons from it - so how much more are we going to learn. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The brutal death of that poor wee boy Malachi is a disgrace.  It's heartbreaking to think an adult could be so cruel to young child. Malachi was beaten, starved, thrown against walls... you name it. Basically torture.  Now we have these debates popping up about it. Should the Minister front for interviews? Karen Chhour, herself a product of the foster care system, was criticised yesterday for attending a pre-planned lunch event to eat some lamb on Parliament's lawn. She should have, according to the RNZ story, presumably been inside answering questions about why more wasn't being done about this boy's murder, which you might recall was back in 2021.  Kelvin Davis, you may also recall, came in for a hammering from the media when was Minister.  So, I think we should all be really clear, neither Karen nor Kelvin nor any politicians are responsible for the deaths of babies.  The fact there is no culprit for the death of Baby Ru in the Hutt is, you could say, the fault of the Police.  But ultimately, as with all these cases, fault ultimately lies with those who do the killing, and those who do the covering up. You know, the family who won't speak to Police. The partner who won't do in their other half.  They're the real culprits here.  Yes, there are things we can learn. Things we can do. Things we change.  We can change the name of the agency. We can add a red-flag system. We can appoint a Children's Commissioner.  But ultimately none of it does much good, does it?  We average around 10 or 11 kids killed by homicide ever year.  Ask OT, or CYFs before them, and they'll tell reports of abuse seem to be trending down, but they have a new thing called reports of concern which are going up.  We actually don't know if it's getting better or worse because of there's a data lag - I know, incredible. But you'd have to say, on the whole, the picture's not rosy, and no amount of stalking MPs around Parliament is going to fix it.  Any fix, surely, has to happen inside the home.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Thursday 12th of Feburary 2025, The Government's launching an inquiry into how the Reserve Bank acted during the Covid pandemic, Claire Matthews, Associate Professor at Massey University Business School shares her thoughts.  Kiwi brewers are calling for the Government to freeze draught beer excise, Founder & Director at Abandoned Brewery, Tim Ward tells Ryan how this could help local brewers.  Property owners are holding on to their properties for the longest period on record, Cotality Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson shares his thoughts.  Plus, US Correspondent Mitch McCann has the latest on a meeting between Trump and Netanyahu on Iran and Police have released a man hours after they detained him in connection to the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie.  Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.           LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

More turmoil could be waiting in the wings for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.   He won't be standing down in the wake of his press secretary and chief of staff resigning.   Starmer's former deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has set up a website as part of a potential leadership challenge.   UK correspondent Mike Pearse told Ryan Bridge an upcoming byelection could be another blow for Starmer.   He says the polls have Labour coming last which would be a massive challenge for Starmer.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Foreign Minister Winston Peters' politicking around the India free trade agreement is nothing new.   There's been weeks of back and forth within the coalition about the contents of the deal, which still hasn't been publicly released.   Peters has spoken out about the deal prohibiting a specific cap on Indian student visas.  Queen City Law managing director Marcus Beveridge told Ryan Bridge Peters made similar criticisms about 20 years ago, but was shut down by Helen Clark.  He says Todd McClay and Christopher Luxon have been a bit more feeble and weak on this one, so Peters has more mileage.   Beveridge says we don't cap any foreign students, so the whole thing is a bit of a red herring.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Critical minerals are starting to be wielded as a geopolitical weapon.   The Trump administration's ramping up pressure on allies to strike a deal in order to shore up US supply.   Talks with New Zealand officials are said to have been picking up steam.   US Critical Materials Executive Director Harvey Kaye told Ryan Bridge the US is aware of China's dominance in this space, and won't accept it.  He says innovation in every area of human development from medicine to defence to AI, is dependent on having a ready supply of rare earth.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There’s no evidence retail crime has fallen, despite claims the Government’s Retail Crime Advisory Group delivered more change than ever before.   The Justice Minister has confirmed the group will be disbanded early, months ahead of schedule, after several members resigned.  Chair Sunny Kaushal says he doesn't think there is any other Ministerial advisory group that's delivered eight key reforms in two years.   But Retail NZ CEO and former group member Carolyn Young told Ryan Bridge it's an election year, he's a politician and he wants votes.    She says people must focus on what's headline news and what's actual news, to see what's been put in place and has actually made a difference.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Labour's getting flak, especially in Auckland, for their capital gains tax.  Rightly so.  But National's approach, as is usually the case with centre-right parties, is user-pays.  It's a way to get revenue without appearing to tax-grab your starving constituents.  Yesterday it was whacking a new tax on our power bills in order to make them cheaper - we hope.  Last week they scrapped the full driver licence test but then NZTA came out and said they may need increase fees for the first test and other bits to make up costs.  We'll pay tolls to get the roads we want. We're about to get hit with congestions charging. International tourists pay the tourists' tax. Domestic tourists pay to use DOC huts and, more recently, carparks at peak places. Wellington will probably soon get a targeted special rate for pumping their number twos into the Cook Strait.  Now, so long as this stuff is ring-fenced, I prefer things are charged this way because if you don't want to use a toll road, use a taxed one. User pays make more sense and is fairer to those who use, and more importantly, those who don't use a particular good or service. But at some point, your household budget is hit with so many fees and charges that you have to stop and ask how long it can continue.  It's death by a thousand cuts.  And then you ask, can't the government cut wasteful spending elsewhere to cover some of this stuff or give me some back in tax? In case you needed examples of that, this week, Shane Jones' half-billion slush funds would be a good place to start, I would've thought.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Wednesday the 11th of Feburary 2025, Todd McClay's confirmed the FTA with india will not allow the Government to cap the number of students coming in from India, Managing Director & Immigration Lawyer at Queen City Law, Marcus Beveridge shares his thoughts.  The Retail Crime advisory group is being disbanded in early May, Retail NZ CEO Carolyn Young tells Ryan where it all went wrong.  US Critical Materials Executive Chairman Harvey Kaye tells Ryan what a Critical Minerals deal could look like between the US and New Zealand.  Plus, UK/Europe Correspondent Mike Pearse has the latest on Keir Starmer refusing to resign and organisers at the Winter Olympics have been forced to apologise to some athletes after their medals broke. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.           LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A promise of certainty and hopes of cheaper power prices with a facility to import liquefied natural gas.  The Government’s confirmed it will build a liquefied natural gas import facility in Taranaki, with a contract expected by mid-year.  It says the project will save the country about $265 million annually – roughly $50 per household.  Energy Resources Aotearoa CEO John Carnegie told Ryan Bridge it’s a necessary dry year insurance policy, as the country faces a massive fuel shortage.  He says there will be a large upfront cost, but officials say the investment will effectively take the heat out of the electricity market and lower peak prices.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

More consistency across the Tasman in the standards for goods and services could reduce administrative burdens and free up business capacity.  A new agreement aims to streamline operations, reduce costs, improve quality, and meet regulatory requirements in New Zealand and Australia. Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen told Ryan Bridge we were out of kilter with the Aussies on about 24 standards, so businesses effectively had to hire someone just to handle the paperwork.  He says it's a main below-the-surface issue and barrier for businesses that can put them off doing the work.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This Government's running into similar problems Jacinda's one did on energy - they're getting too much 'official' advice and reports.  The problem when you ask 'the experts' for advice on every thought that pops into your head, is that they tend to agree with it. And if they don't, you tend to ignore them. And what does that tell you about the need for the advice in the first place?  Latest case in point is the LNG terminal in Taranaki. A billion bucks. We'll be paying a levy on our power bills to fund it.  Big announcement at the Beehive theatrette yesterday.  The 'official advice' from MBIE and the rest was that this is the way to go. This will save us all, on average, apparently, $1 a week on electricity.  If we're lucky. Because remember, as with all advice, there are caveats. The caveats are "depends on this" and "depends on that". So, we've got an announcement and we hope for the best and this thing will be built, come hell or high water, bar a change of government, by 2027.  When the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine, we'll import LNG and keep the lights on. BUT.  Last year we had the Frontier Economics report. Same issue but different set of 'advisors'. They're an independent global consultancy crowd and what they said was quite different.  They told us it would basically be a dumb idea to build an import terminal because you've got a massive fixed cost spread over a relatively small amount of output, because you're only using this as a back-up.  You can't sell an LNG terminal once you're finished with it. These particular advisors made the point that it's quite a specific piece of kit and could well turn it one of this country's biggest white elephant investments.  Yet here we are less than a year later with a different set of advice and another vague plan.  There's no doubt this country needs a plan to deal with energy security, but depending on who you ask, this is either brilliant or batshit.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Tuesday the 10th of Feburary 2025, The Government's given the all clear to build an LNG import facility to help with energy security, Energy Resources Aotearoa Chief Executive John Carnegie shares his thoughts.  The Government's signed a new standards agreement with Australia, Infometrics CEO and Principal Economist Brad Olsen explains.  Plus, Australia Correspondent Donna Demaio has the latest on a multi million dollar boost to help veterans transition to civilian life and an investigation into work conditions on a luxury cruise liner docked in Darwin. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.           LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Listen to the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Monday 9 February. Get the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's chief of staff has quit - claiming he's responsible for advising Starmer to appoint Peter Mandelson as US ambassador.  Morgan McSweeney's position had been in doubt - after emails revealed Mandelson’s relationship with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Mandelson's facing a criminal investigation - into claims he'd passed sensitive information to Epstein.  UK correspondent Mike Pearse told Ryan Bridge the scandal has Starmer's popularity waning.  He says a new poll reveals Starmer has the support of fewer than one in five people in the UK - with some of his own MPs saying it's a matter of time before he pays the price. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I was having a good old debate with a mate at the weekend about interest rates.  We're of the age where, mortgages are a thing.  In Auckland, quote a bog and annoying thing.  Paying them down is the aim of the game.  Now this mate of mine knows a bit more about this stuff than I do and watches the markets closely. He's worried about the middle of the year - potentially this recovery if that's what we can official call it yet - coming to a bit a standstill/abrupt halt.  We've spoken before about elections putting the kaibosh on growth. We've spoken about Bill English's comments about our recovery, unlike across the ditch, coming isn't spite of a rebound in house prices.  In Australia, everything's how. The weather. House prices. Inflation. Growth. Employment.  It's like they're on a different hemisphere to us.  There was a good podcast talking about some of this, Of Interest, with a Westpac economist.  The RBA'S rate is now 3.85%. Ours is 2.25%. It's been about 15 years since there's been such a big gap between the two.  We usually cycle together most of the time but we have drifted apart to the point where one's so far over the hill, we can't see each other anymore.  This is all by design, of course. We were way more aggressive. We engineered a recession to crash inflation.  They went a loft softer to take into account employment.  They have a duel mandate. The coalition got rid of ours.  The Aussies are now upping rates again because their inflation is taking off again. Ours has a mild case of fever but nothing like there's at early 4%.  The question anyone thinking about this stuff, with a mortgage is asking themselves, is this. Would you swallow a bit of inflation to have an economy that's actually firing?  In other words, in future, would you rather this was handled the Aussie way? Or the Kiwi way? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Westport’s only air link could be cut within months.  Originair won’t guarantee its Westport-Wellington service beyond May after failing to secure Government and local funding.  NZ Airports Association CEO Billie Moore says Westport is one of the last remaining airports still co-owned by the taxpayer.  She told Ryan Bridge taxpayers already cover half the airport’s annual shortfall, just to keep essential services running.  Moore says the public contribution needs to be beneficial.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.