The Mike Hosking Breakfast

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.    The war: 6/10  It ended the way at least some thought it would: within six weeks, with last minute high drama. Now there'll be a bit of back and forward, but eventually, like all Middle East conflicts, we will all go home.    Artemis II: 7/10  I have failed to get as fizzed as some, but the other side of the moon is cool. The photos were cool, even if you saw the same thing 50 years ago.    The pilot rescue: 6/10  Brilliantly executed and brilliantly sold, especially by Pete Hegseth. But you only rescue a bloke in a cave if someone shot you out of the sky. Ol' Pete didn’t tell you too much about that.    Commodities: 9/10  Another week, another record for NZ Inc. Pretty much everything we sell is going gangbusters.    Macron: 7/10  World leader of the week. When having been insulted by Trump, he told him to be serious and stop talking every day. He sounded adult at a time when Trump sounded deranged, petty and childish.    LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Here is an irony for you.  Could it be that the Prime Minister, the one so disliked by the media, is actually so good at his job that his numbers are a result of his excellence?  The pollster David Farrar has broken down the NZ First poll numbers this week.  Now, small warning – the NZ First poll numbers are not accurate given NZ First went up 4%, which is a 30%-ish swing in their favour.  As I said this week, parties don’t go up or down at that rate ever. But it is true to say NZ First is on a bit of a roll. Multiple polls show a growth in support.  Farrar's breakdown showed the majority of the new support has come from National.  Why? Well NZ First for some will be what National aren't: straight up and down, hard arse and no nonsense. Winston Peters and Shane Jones tell it like it is and in a divided world there is an appeal to that.  There was a good piece in the Sydney Morning Herald reporting the same thing. Major parties have cocked it up for decades, so Pauline Hanson comes along and it's her time to shine.  Back here, what has Luxon got to do with it? Well, whether you support the Government or not, he has held together a very successful collab, with three parties for the first time ever in an official arrangement.  They work together and get along together and that has brought faith in the idea that you can have MMP and small parties can not only survive but prosper. All three parties will go to the election this year in good standing.  You have not been able to say that in the MMP era before. From the Alliance Party to the Māori Party, to the Greens, to NZ First themselves, all minor parties have previously suffered, if not vanished, while in Government or in Government arrangements.  The Luxon CEO approach, open to much media derision, has in fact paid dividends, so much so that his own party might have bled support. Such is the confidence he has been able to foster in a mature and adult arrangement, whereas the election draws closer, it isn't every man for himself.  Ironically, it's the downside to success. But as I said earlier this week, the days of major parties being well into the 30s is going, if not gone. You can't have 10-12% smaller players and hold 35%+. The numbers don’t work.  If the left ever got a solid third player, Labour would face the same issue.  National won't be enjoying this truth. But if you're an MMP fan, the maturity of what we have seen this past two and a bit years cements the future for potentially stable and adult Government.  It's the model as to how it should be done. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Home-base preparations ahead of Artemis II's crew splash down off California's coast on Saturday afternoon.  The four astronauts are on the return trip to Earth after their historic lunar flyby.   NASA landing and recovery director, Liliana Villarreal says a ship's heading towards the capsule landing zone.   The crew will then be helicoptered to dry land, for post-flight medical checks.  US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking the ship will pierce the Earth’s atmosphere at a speed of just over 40,000 kilometres an hour – seven times the speed of sound.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Friday has come once more which means it’s time for Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson to Wrap the Week that was.   They discussed the state of the conflict in the Middle East and the ceasefire negotiations, the follow up to the ‘Jury Duty’ TV show, and the upcoming return of the Artemis II.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New research has highlighted an issue hidden beneath our feet.  A Ministry for the Environment report shows E. coli has been detected in almost half of monitored groundwater sites since 2019.  Nitrate levels have risen more than a third in the past two decades, and 63% of New Zealand's lakes had poor or very poor health.  Water NZ CEO Gillian Blythe told Mike Hosking a critical piece of information highlighted by the report is that what we do with some water environments won’t show up for decades.  She says that things they were doing in the early 2000s are only beginning to appear now, so they need to think about not just the day-to-day decisions, but also the impact on generations and the environment in the future.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 10th of April, former National Security Advisor to Donald Trump, John Bolton gives his opinion on the conflict in the Middle East and the ceasefire negotiations.   Taupō Motorsport Park Owner Tony Quinn talks the biggest event of the weekend – Supercars is back at Taupō before it heads to the South Island for the first time ever.  Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson talk the war, Artemis II, and jury duty as they Wrap the Week.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Israel’s attacks on Lebanon may be a sticking point in ceasefire negotiations between Iran and the United States.   More 300 people were killed and over 1000 injured in Israel's strikes on Lebanon yesterday, with Israel claiming the conflict there wasn't covered by the ceasefire agreement.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's since ordered his Cabinet to open direct talks with Lebanon to establish "peace relations", but has rejected any reports of a ceasefire.   The Economist's Middle East correspondent Gregg Carlstrom told Mike Hosking the strikes won’t stop entirely, but we may not see the same level as before.   He says that if Israel tones down their attacks, it will hopefully take away the threat to the broader ceasefire in the region.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A flurry of international tourists is expected in Taupō this weekend for the first leg of the Supercars double-header.    More than two and a half thousand Australians are expected, with accommodation in the town nearing capacity.   Taupō’s hosting for the first time before Christchurch's Ruapuna Speedway's debut for the second round next week.   Taupō Motorsport Park owner Tony Quinn told Mike Hosking everything's ready to go.  He says he's proud of his team's efforts, and the grass is looking prim and proper ready for fans to arrive.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former advisor to Donald Trump says he's under more pressure than Iran.  The US and Iran will sit down for talks in less than 48 hours in Pakistan, as the ceasefire between the two nations continues to look shaky.  The Strait of Hormuz is reportedly back open, but Iran says any ships that pass through will need to communicate with its army.   Iran's claimed victory, saying its regime will seek compensation for every single loss inflicted.  Former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton told Mike Hosking the US President needs to open the strait with military force if ships can't pass through.   He says if the US isn't able to prove it can open the strait, then who knows what will happen if Iran closes it again.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

David Seymour believes financial flexibility is playing a role in the rapid growth of charter schools.  New figures show more than 1,400 students were enrolled in 16 schools as of last month.  The first seven schools established have seen their rolls jump more than 200% from 215 to 650.  The Associate Education Minister told Mike Hosking charter schools demonstrate what's possible within the learning environment.  He says they can be shut down if they don't reach targets like attendance and academics, but in return get the flexibility to use money their way.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Reviews and reports aren't enough to keep the early childhood sector up to scratch.   The Education Review Office has found almost half of ECE services don't meet the quality threshold, down from 64% a year earlier.  Advocates for Early Learning Excellence Chair Kelly Seaburg told Mike Hosking although the results are better, it also highlights things to work on.   She says there needs to be a stronger systemic approach to lifting professional development and leadership.  Seaburg also says there needs to be more than just reviews to better the sector.   She says at the end of the day, there's no real teeth to these reports, and we can't leave children's education to chance.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Do you think we will learn some lessons or change our mind now that the war is essentially over?  Do we need to be more oil independent or, overall, is the way we do it for good reason i.e. it's cheaper to buy refined product? Do we need to seek out new markets for products that have previously been brought blindly through the Strait, like plastics and gases?  In Canada the left-leaners are in a lather. The NDP (New Democrat Party) have a new leader and he's very green and very pro-climate change. He's in trouble because his party leaders in places like Alberta and Saskatchewan are riding the oil wave. Alberta's deficit is being wiped out as oil money rolls in, in a way they never forecast.  So you can be a leftie but still understand the economic reality, if not necessity, of fossil fuels. You may not like them, but they work, they are needed and they pay the bills.  Here, surely, if we have learned nothing else it's just how dependant we still are on stuff we allegedly hate, can't get rid of fast enough and thought we were living without.  Power is renewable, broadly, and that is good. But it was very quickly determined cars are no such thing and, more importantly, nothing that carried anything was an EV.  Trucks and cranes and diggers and industry generally is a fossil fuel game and it's not changing. Would we not be better to accept that and get on with it rather than wrestling, clearly hopelessly, with an ideology that, when push came to shove, got found out badly.  The quote of the week came from Plastics NZ when they said "plastics are in everything.  Whoops. I thought getting rid of the straws and supermarket bags was it? There's a small problem though with the downpipes, or pipes in general, not just through the Strait. Are we making pipes out of paper too? Where are those renewable pipes?  So how about we accept that as well? Plastic is real and it isn't going anywhere.  Covid sort of gave us a taste when the place closed down, but the war has been a better wake-up call.  Our actions don’t match our words. The conversation has been hijacked by zealots. We are doing our bit for climate, which is good, but we are not getting rid of plastic, and we are not moving on from oil. We are not giving up the stuff that makes the world go around and life actually work.  In these past five and a bit weeks reality has had its mic drop moment. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's travelling to the Persian Gulf to help shore-up the US and Iran ceasefire.  Both sides have accepted Pakistan's proposal to pause fighting two weeks, which looks shaky after Israel bombed Lebanon overnight.    Global oil prices have since plunged below US$100 a barrel.  UK Correspondent Rod Liddle told Mike Hosking Starmer’s looking to replace Donald Trump as an ally Middle East countries can have some conviction in.   He says the UK Prime Minister has improved his standing both within his own country, and likely in the Middle East as well by being very wary of Trump’s ambitions.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 9th of April, Iran and the US have agreed to a ceasefire that looks increasingly tenuous – what will happen in the next two weeks?  Reserve Bank Governor Anna Breman and Finance Minister Nicola Willis discuss the OCR remaining at 2.25% and the economic impact of the ceasefire for New Zealand.   Kiwi Supercars driver Matt Payne speaks ahead Taupō this weekend and the first ever South Island race next weekend.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Taupō and Christchurch are set for high-octane V8 Supercars action over the next two weekends.  It’s the first time the Supercars championship has held two rounds in New Zealand, and the driver who collects the most points over the two rounds will be awarded the Jason Richards Memorial Trophy, named after the Kiwi driver who succumbed to cancer in 2011.  Matt Payne is one of three Kiwis racing and will be hoping for the same success he had last year, when he won in Taupō.   He told Mike Hosking that it’s been a while since they’ve had back-to-back rounds, especially in New Zealand.  “It’s a little bit different logistically,” Payne explained.  “Everyone gets used to it, but for everyone, I think it’s good to stay on the roll.”   “Obviously the more racing we can do, the better, and two weekends in New Zealand is, yeah, dream come true for me.”  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A US national security expert believes Iran is gaining leverage out of the ceasefire, showing it can open and close the Strait of Hormuz at will.  “The real question here is: what is Iran holding back?”, New Haven University's Dr Matthew Schmidt told Mike Hosking.  “Can they restart their threats over the Strait of Hormuz six weeks from now, two weeks from now, right, six months from now?”  Gulf states were “desperate” for the strait to open and to have Iranian drones and missiles under control. "They're being fired directly at their oil and gas facilities, which are going to cost hundreds of billions of dollars - if they are taken offline - to restart.”  The key question was what would happen in two weeks’ time - whether Iran would “flex their muscles” and threaten to close the strait, or control which ships could travel through.  Schmidt believed the Iranian regime was weakened and would not last long-term, but it could still be in control for a decade or more.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Organised crime groups likely still dictate New Zealand's drug market despite huge increases in seized product.  Border drug busts jumped from 1.5 to 6.5 tonnes between 2018 and 2024.  In the first nine weeks of 2026, more than 12 tonnes of cocaine was stopped in the Pacific.  Chair of Ministerial Advisory Group for Organised Crime Steve Symon told Mike Hosking groups are stockpiling.   He says they're getting enough drugs in so they can still control prices, even when there are disruptions.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank Governor says the conflict in Iran has materially altered New Zealand's outlook, even if yesterday's ceasefire deal leads to a de-escalation.  The central bank's kept the Official Cash Rate on hold at 2.25%.  It's forecasting inflation will hit 4.2% this quarter and says it's prepared to hike the cash rate if inflation becomes embedded.  Governor Anna Breman told Mike Hosking even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, economic disruptions will linger for some time.  She says we're facing a severe supply chain disruption, affecting not just oil, but also the shipping of other goods.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Education Minister's hitting back at union claims her flagship assessment tool is falling flat.  The Educators Collective says fewer than 60% of schools have signed up to the SMART reporting system, with some not planning to use it.  The tool gives parents progress markers and twice-yearly updates for Year 0-10 students.  But Erica Stanford told Mike Hosking the criticism is a political hit job and the union’s fudged the figures.   She says 250 thousand students were signed up to SMART in nine working days, which shows the sector understands assessment is important to raise achievement.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Too many 'ifs' around the Iran war for our Finance Minister to guarantee all will be well down the track.  There are differing reports as to whether the Strait of Hormuz is actually open following a ceasefire deal between the US and Iran.   New Zealand has more than 60 days of petrol and 50 of diesel.  Nicola Willis told Mike Hosking a sustained ceasefire and movement of ships paints a better inflation picture, but it all depends on if this happens.   She's also conscious that even when the strait opens, major energy market disruption will persist.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.