The Mike Hosking Breakfast

The mail I'm getting got a bit more official yesterday with Fitch suggesting they think the Reserve Bank isn't done.  A lot of people thought the Reserve Bank was done cutting because fill-in Governor Christian Hawkesby basically said as much last week.  On the inference that it was over, swap rates on the wholesale market started going up.  Why should you care? Because if you owe money to a bank a lot of their income to lend comes from the wholesale markets.  If it goes up so does your interest rate, which is what has been happening since last Thursday.  Now this is where we get into subtlety and nuance.  Technically Hawkesby said the bank remains open to further action, so if you lined Hawkesby up in court he could defend himself.  But as always in these matters it is the between the lines stuff, the nod and the wink stuff, that markets read.  And they are reading an end and, as a result, the numbers are rising.  Tied in, if another cut is coming as Fitch suggests, things are further complicated with our dollar, given places like Australia are doing the opposite.  Their Reserve Bank is closer to hiking than cutting. That affects how the world sees our economy and our currency, at 87cents to the Australian dollar and at 43cents to the pound, looks anaemic.  For good measure, Fitch seems downbeat about our recovery. They are calling 2% next year by way of GDP. They were saying 2.7%.  This then brings in the Government. The Government, in election year, would like 2.7% over 2%.  2% they'd be able to milk but 2.7% is home court advantage.  If you want one more thing that kind of backs up the Fitch funk, Black Friday didn’t work.  Spending was down on last year. Personally, I think that’s about it being a crock of you-know-what and it's more clickbait than it is bargains and people are over being ripped off.  But that’s just me.  So anyway, Hawkesby leaves with a trail of questions left behind as he heads to the beach.  If you are one of the so-often quoted ones who are rolling out of one mortgage into another, these are still tricky times to try and get right and you want to hope Fitch has misread it. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US Secretary of Defence is facing scrutiny for potentially having committed a war crime.  Pete Hegseth is facing scrutiny over a strike he ordered on a boat in the Caribbean Sea suspected of smuggling drugs.   The Washington Post reported last week that Hegseth authorised a highly unusual second strike to kill all survivors on the boat – reports Hegseth has denied.   US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking that Hegseth has previously railed against the Geneva Convention and the legal rules of engagement.  In his book, Arnold says, Hegseth shares an anecdote in which he tells the soldiers in his platoon to ignore such legal advice.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the year nearing its end, Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen joined Mike Hosking for the final Politics Wednesday of 2025.   They discussed Scrutiny Week, Labour’s decision to chase the Māori seats and what’s ahead as we enter an election year.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 3rd of December, Police Commissioner Richard Chambers outlined the Police's new targets in the wake of the McSkimming debacle.  Liam Lawson has officially retained his seat for Racing Bulls next season! Former Ferrari and Williams manager Peter Windsor broke down the decision for us.  And Ginny Andersen and Mark Mitchell joined Mike for their last Politics Wednesday of the year.   Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand’s relationship with the "Land of Opportunity" is taking the spotlight in Auckland today.  Business, trade, and political leaders are attending the annual US Business Summit.  Christopher Luxon is set to open the summit, shedding light on the Government’s actions to strengthen bilateral ties.  NZUS Council Executive Director Fiona Cooper told Mike Hosking New Zealand is doing great business with the US and the summit is about sharing stories about how to navigate the tariff turbulence.   But at the same time, she says there are tonnes of opportunities in the US, in areas like technology, investment, education, agriculture, and aerospace, and this is about seizing them.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The success story keeps rolling for Kiwi company AF Drinks.  The alcohol-free brand has just secured nationwide distribution in the UK with supermarket giant Morrisons.  It follows on from their US expansion, with them now stocked in over 4000 stores including Target, Walmart, and Sprouts.  Founder Lisa King told Mike Hosking there’s been a huge trend towards alcohol moderation.  She says that a lot of people are still drinking alcohol, but they’re moderating it and choosing to drink less or drink non-alcoholic versions.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A mentoring role for Liam Lawson in the 2026 Formula 1 season.  The New Zealand driver has retained his spot in Racing Bulls alongside 18-year-old debutant Arvid Lindblad.  Lawson had been vying for the vacant seat with demoted Red Bull driver Yuki Tsunoda, following Isack Hadjar's promotion to the parent team.  Former Williams and Ferrari executive Peter Windsor told Mike Hosking Lawson's the best fit for the requirements.  He says Liam will flourish in a senior role and it’ll bring out the best in him.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a belief support for first-time principals is falling short.  Newstalk ZB analysis has found 970 principals quit in the past three years – one in five within their first year.  Retirements jumped 26% over the same period.  Secondary Principals' Council Chair Kate Gainsford told Mike Hosking other countries have solid systems to prepare principals, but we don't.  She says part of the role teachers can get used to while they're middle and senior leaders, but part can't be learnt until you're actually in the role.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The economic impact of international students is surging.  New Stats NZ data shows education-related travel exports jumped to $4.52 billion in the year to September, up from $3.6 billion the previous year.  Education New Zealand wants to increase that figure to $7.2 billion by 2034.  Chief Executive Amanda Malu told Mike Hosking growth is across all sectors and there’s still room to expand.  She says universities have higher enrolments than they've ever had, schools are growing, and private training has grown 33%.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Confidence from the Police Commissioner that New Zealanders don't see police any differently in the wake of the McSkimming scandal.  Richard Chambers has announced four new targets, which include restoring public trust and confidence to 80%.  It follows the IPCA's recent and scathing report into how serious allegations against former Deputy Commissioner Jevon McSkimming were addressed.   Chambers told Mike Hosking people understand the blame lies with former leaders.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It probably came out on the wrong day to get the coverage it deserved, but one of the last pieces in the economic turnaround told us we are basically there.  Consumer confidence is back, up six points to 98. It needs to be 100 or more for expansion, but it’s the highest figure since June and backs the business confidence, which last week was up a lot.  Business comes first because they see the turnaround on sales. The spending numbers back that up because they are pretty real time and then you get confidence as a follow up, given although we are spending, some may not want to admit it may still feel like they are in a bit of a funk.  But add it all together and the conclusion is inescapable.  You can also add the ASB housing numbers if you want. Confidence in the housing market is at a 15-year high.  Why? Because it's almost perfect – good supply, cheap money, but most importantly we seemed to have crossed the psychological barrier and given ourselves permission to start to feel good again.  The irony is the growth that drives all this might just have been there all along. We get the Q3 GDP number later this month with Infometrics suggesting it is 0.9%.  Add that to the rest of the year and we are well above the growth line. Not that a lot of the commentary has backed that up.  Which is not to say some still do it tough. It's not to say it's the boom times. It's just to say there comes a point where the facts, figures and evidence can no longer be denied.  Here is my next prediction: as a result of all this, 2026 might well be a very good year indeed.  That's based on the idea that economies are about psychologies. Yes, they are about fundamentals but if the fundamentals are in place, then the next thing you look for is mood.  And given the mood has been so repressed, when we decide to take the handbrake off there might just be no stopping us.  As I said last week don't underestimate the Reserve Bank and the finality of their cut. They said this was it, they they've done their job, we are free to go and enjoy our lives. For those waiting and dilly-dallying, that was what they were waiting for.  The next confidence survey will be over 100 and that will be the start of a trend for the year ahead.  Remember where you heard it first. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 2nd of December, the Government is bringing in rates caps in 2029. Local Government Minister Simon Watts and Nelson Mayor Nick Smith give their takes on the proposal. Will there be a coup in Netball NZ? A Special General Meeting has been called this weekend to discuss a vote of no confidence of the leadership. UK comedian and author David Walliams has a new children's book out and he can't wait to catch up with Mike and make of his tight jeans! Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Although he’s best known for his comedy, David Walliams has a growing portfolio of children’s literature.  He’s sold more than 60 million copies worldwide and has just released his 44th book ‘Santa & Son’, just in time for Christmas.  He released his first children’s book in 2008, and even after 17 years and nearly 50 books, Walliams still finds writing to be a challenging task.   “You’re constantly scared, you think, oh my god, I’m gonna run out of ideas, or you think, oh god, this is too similar to something I’ve already done,” he told Mike Hosking.   “The thing I try and do is move as far away as I can from something I’ve just done, because the thing is you just don’t want to repeat yourself.”   A lot of his earlier works were set contemporary Britain and revolved around schools, and after a while he found he’d run out of ways to make a teacher character work.  “I can’t think of any more traits that would make teachers funny,” he told Hosking.  “So I thought I just have to move away from that and find different stories.”  “I sort of have to make it difficult for myself just so I don’t end up going down the same path.”  When it comes to success, Walliams explains that he’s not competitive in any major way.  “I don’t see other people who do what I do as sort of foes or anything,” he said.  “But of course I want my book to be well-received, I want kids to enjoy it, I want it to make people happy.”   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Coach Rob Walter is comfortable with how the Black Caps are tracking heading into the three-test series against the West Indies, beginning today at Hagley Oval.  New Zealand is fresh from overcoming the West Indies by a combined 6 games to one in the two white ball series.  While Walter was pleased to get the results, he reckons the Black Caps can still improve as a cohesive group.  He told Mike Hosking they’re not expecting the West Indies to be a pushover.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Netball stakeholders attempting to overthrow the national governing body say issues extend beyond the Silver Ferns coaching saga.  The Waikato Bay of Plenty Zone has called a Special General Meeting for Sunday to declare its intention for the board and chief executive to be replaced.  Tauranga Netball Centre board chair Nicola Compton says Dame Noeline Taurua's treatment is one of three major concerns.  She told Mike Hosking the other two are the uncertainty surrounding the ANZ Premiership after next year and the mishandling of the television rights deal.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An assurance a council rates cap will only target unnecessary costs, not community services or infrastructure.  By 2029, councils wanting to increase rates by more than 4% will need approval from a government-appointed regulator.   Water rates are excluded from the cap.  Local Government Minister Simon Watts told Mike Hosking this will be an education process for councils.  He says there's a lot of fat in the system and councils need to ensure cash has to be going into essential areas.   Watts says he will work with the industry, not against them.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A view more New Zealanders are adapting to get on the property ladder to overcome economic woes.  Kiwibank's Annual State of Home Ownership Index finds 57% of non-owners feel locked out of the market, improving by 6%.  It notes 60% still find the cost of living the biggest obstacle to owning a house.  Chief Executive Steve Jurkovich told Mike Hosking more people are open to exploring different pathways to ownership.  For example, he says, people are exploring co-owning, getting together with their parents and grandparents to try buy a house.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

David Seymour's shrugging off food poisoning concerns at a Christchurch school, saying its principal is often complaining about Government policies.  Haeata Community Campus recalled all lunches yesterday after discovering some boxes contained rancid and "dead" looking food.   Some children had already eaten their lunch.  Minister-in-charge Seymour told Mike Hosking a previous batch has likely been re-served to students.  He says they're keeping an open mind while looking into how meals from last week got in front of children this week.  The School Lunch Collective, Ministry of Education and MPI are all investigating.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's an expectation a rates cap will prove challenging and require teaming up with central Government.   The Government's proposing to stop rates increases at 4% a year, excluding water and other non-rates revenue.  Councils wanting to go beyond this will need approval from a government-appointed regulator.  Nelson Mayor Nick Smith told Mike Hosking he's not surprised councils have been targeted by the Government as it aims to reduce costs across the board.  But he says delivery will require the Government to work with them to get costs down, especially in the construction sector.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Monday the 1st of December, Local Government Minister Simon Watts speaks on what councils will be spending on 'Water Done Well' over the next decade. The Prime Minister speaks about our maths results, whether EU countries are worried about our climate targets and the City Rail Link being delayed until late 2026. For the final time Andrew Saville and Jason Pine speak to Mike for the year about the F1, Supercars and Auckland FC. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.