The Mike Hosking Breakfast

I watched a woman from one of the unions explain how much work had been done to settle their claim.  The allied health workers have signed off their deal. That’s 12,000 physios, social workers, etc. There was more work to do, she said.  I bet there is. Unions are dreadful things and they're full of people who are full of hate and misery.  The health workers got about 2.5% this year and a bit over 2% next year.  The principals got something similar and the secondary teachers got the same thing. The primary teachers are holdouts, but that’s over the Treaty. Money wise they appear to have been offered what everyone else has.  In other words, all the angst and upset, hot air, back and forward, the strike, the stop-works and the waving of placards on picket lines has resulted in, pretty much, the same for everyone – two point something percent this year and a bit less next year.  Months and months and months' worth of aggro for the same result.  What is the point in that?  At all times the state had no money. We are in debt. When you have a collective that covers thousands, the offer will always be affected by the scale of the outcome.  Sir Brian Roche would appear to be the unsung hero, quietly and patiently beavering away with a bunch of myopic ideologues who believe that threats and withdrawals of labour is a good way to do business.  If one of them had got 8%, if one of them had been able to point to a material gain by their seemingly never-ending barrage of industrial action, they may have had a point.  But they can't. In a nutshell, they got pretty much what they got offered.  The state were never looking to rip anyone off. Good people and good order is a valuable asset in the public service. But in a country with no money you can't magic up riches.  So all that union apparatus for what? All those fees for what? All those days off for what?  2% this year and 2% next year for everyone. How much time, energy and noise could have been saved if the approach was less adversarial and more adult? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

France is increasing its nuclear arsenal for the first time in decades.   It will also significantly intensify nuclear weapons cooperation with eight European allies, French President Emmanuel Macron announced.  He says the “period of geopolitical upheaval” means France, the EU’s only nuclear power, must strengthen its deterrent in the face of multiple threats.  France Correspondent Catherine Field told Mike Hosking that in the past, France maintained a policy of “strict sufficiency” for its nuclear warheads, but that policy has been removed.  She says they’re not sure how many warheads will be in the supply, as the details have been light.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another Kiwi success story from the world of wine.   Marlborough’s Wairau River 2025 Sauvignon Blanc has made the World’s Best Sommeliers’ Selection for 2026 – chosen by top sommeliers from 17 countries across six continents.   It’s the only Australasian wine to make the list.   Rose Family Estate CEO Lindsay Parkinson told Mike Hosking this award is all about balance, and some sommeliers have very specific requirements, so they’re chuffed to meet those.   LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 3rd of March, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State looks at the US’ next steps in the Middle East, and we take a look at the impact it may have on NZ trade.   A New Zealand wine company is the only Australasian brand named in the World’s Best Sommelier Selection for 2026.  And Liam Lawson joins the show ahead of the first race of the season this weekend and his second full season in Formula 1.    Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump says the US had projected a four-to-five-week operation in Iran but could go much longer.   Some of Iran's retaliatory strikes have been targeted at key energy infrastructure in the region, including an oil refinery and natural gas plant.   The Iranian Red Crescent says at least 555 people have been killed in attacks on the nation.  Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State under the Obama Administration, Joel Rubin told Mike Hosking that while Trump had a plan for the first days of the strike, there’s not much of a plan beyond that.   He says there’s aspirational goals, such as the people of Iran rising up, but Trump hasn’t explained exactly how that will be implemented.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

LISTEN ABOVE OR IF YOU'RE OUTSIDE NEW ZEALAND - LISTEN BELOW Racing Bulls driver Liam Lawson is not having “fun” in his new car, but is excited to see what the new Formula One season brings.  Melbourne hosts the first Grand Prix of the year this weekend, and the Kiwi driver had some productive practice sessions ahead of his second full season in the competition but is still getting to grips with his car.  Speaking on Mike Hosking Breakfast, Lawson said his new car is not “super fun” to drive yet.  “In some ways the car moves around quite a bit more and it depends on how you look at it - that can be more enjoyable.  “But obviously we’re trying to extract every bit of lap time out of the car and in some ways it feels like you can’t attack as much as you could in the past when you had a lot more downforce.”  The cars have become smaller and lighter in an attempt to enable improved racing.  Racing Bulls' 2026 Formula One car in pre-season testing. Photo / AFP  “They do feel a little bit smaller,” Lawson said, “a little bit more playful to drive.  “But I think the main reason for that is just because we have a significant amount of aero taken off the car.  “When you have a car that’s extremely high downforce, it’s designed to push through the air in a straight line. As soon as you start sliding the car, you lose a lot of that downforce because you start to hit the air on an angle with your yaw and it basically upsets the car massively.”  The Kiwi driver said his team was surprised at how good the power units have been, but felt engine reliability is going to play a big factor with some teams struggling at the start of the season.  Liam Lawson for Racing Bulls in Formula One's pre-season testing. Photo / Red Bull  When asked about his own chances, Lawson felt he had learned a lot from last year and felt it was important he was able to “survive” it.  “I’m grateful to have done that and feel a lot better going into this year, but just because of new cars and new regulations it sort of throws a whole new thing in there that is quite unknown.”  Despite the issues with the cars, Lawson said he was looking forward to the new season starting.  “On a personal level, I feel very comfortable and excited for the season, but, in a lot of ways obviously with these new cars, there’s a lot of unknowns.”  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The impact of the Middle East conflict on our trade is still unclear.  Thousands of Kiwi containers are stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, with more than $3 billion worth of goods headed for the Gulf each year.  Trade and Associate Foreign Minister Todd McClay says New Zealand would only look to alternative markets if the conflict drags on.  He told Mike Hosking it's interesting US stock markets haven’t reacted significantly, which shows they've likely factored something like this in.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government believes its traffic welfare system is increasing people's chances of getting a job.  The system was introduced in August 2024 and uses traffic light colours to help beneficiaries stay on track with their obligations.  An evaluation has found nearly 99% of Ministry of Social Development clients are fulfilling their obligations, and the number of sanctions issued has dropped 10.6%.  Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston told Mike Hosking 83 thousand people have left the benefit into work.  She says people are more clear of the expectations, and the consequences if they aren't filled.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Promising signs when it comes to consumer arrears.  The latest Centrix data shows the number of people behind on their payments in January was 491 thousand.  That was up 20 thousand from December, largely expected due to seasonal trends.  But Chief Operating Officer Monika Lacey told Mike Hosking that despite the seasonal increase, arrears are still down on last year by almost 1%.  She says overall, Kiwis are managing their money quite well.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Monday the 2nd of March, we get the latest on the war in Iran plus what it could mean for petrol prices back here in NZ. The Prime Minister is in and gives his thoughts on the legalities of the strike, airport charges the highest in the world at Auckland and the Air NZ result. Andrew Saville and Jason Pine talk the NZ Open, the first race of the Indycar season and whether it's the Warriors year as they have their first game this weekend. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

To the so-called poverty issue. The report actually uses the word "hardship". Kids in hardship, roughly, is flat. About 14% of kids allegedly live in some form of hardship. Hardship is often replaced with the word poverty. They are different things and, also, the measure of hardship is open to real inquiry. The stats department interviewed 18,000 families and "hardship" is a house that goes without 7 of 18 necessities e.g paying the power bill on time, feeling cold etc. Now, without getting too picky, a seven-year-old who lives in a house who's power bill is overdue has nothing to do with hardship, unless the power is cut off, which mainly it is not. i watched a press conference last week with the Prime Minister and police and justice ministers on crime and the poverty question came up. You note the word they used was "poverty", not hardship. The question, inferred as they so often do, was what the Government were going to do about it. The answer was one of only three; 1) Is a Labour view, which is hand out more money, 2) A current Government view, which is grow the economy, 3) The answer that is rarely used - get the parents to pull their finger out. My read of these stats is that given the number is steady at 14%, you are essentially dealing with the same people, many of whom are hopeless. Under Ardern her personal project was to reduce child poverty. It didn’t happen. Under this Government it hasn’t either. So approaches one and two haven't worked. There are rightly or wrongly (obviously wrongly) a group of people who struggle. Their circumstances will be little different to many who have it tough as well, but get by. They have kids that aren't in hardship but face the same fiscal issues. It will be benefit related. It will be about decisions, about priorities, what bill gets paid first, how far down the food chain, literally and figuratively, are the kids. Within the same fiscal envelope, some kids are fine and some will be a statistic. That, sadly, is not the Government's real problem. Government's can only do so much. Sometimes parents might have to do a bit more and be a bit better. The child, as always, is innocent. You don’t choose to be born to some of the parents who masquerade as parents. But these stats tell a sad truth. I don’t think there is an answer. Whether its 14% or 15% or 11%, there are no miracles.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government has been helping to fund events such as the NZ Open for a while, but should they be contributing to an already successful competition?  NZ Open Tournament Director Michael Glading says that the Government gets a return on it's investment, and that the NZ Golf Open is one of their top earners.  'Certainly right up there in terms of return for dollar spent, and the money that flows into this event is phenomenal.' LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Prime Minister says New Zealand has never supported the Iranian regime.  Christopher Luxon told Mike Hosking that it's a regime which has brutally repressed it's own people, killed tens of thousands, and sponsored terrorism around the world.  He also said that the missile strikes were 'independent attacks' from the US and Israel, and that New Zealand was not informed of the attacks before they happened.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US/Israeli missile strikes against Iran have caused uncertainty around oil prices.  20% of the world's crude oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has threatened to close and it has already heavily restricted access to the region.  AA Principal Policy Adviser Terry Collins told Mike Hosking that prices hinge on the ability to move oil through the Strait, but that won't be an easy task. "it's easy to target vessels within it, and it's what the response will be from the Americans around protecting those vehicles" LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Iran may be overstating its military capabilities in the wake of US and Israeli attacks.  Coordinated strikes have killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and multiple senior officials, resulting in Iran launching counter strikes across the Middle East.  Iran officials say almost 150 people have been killed from a strike on a girls school.  The Iranian President has appeared on state television claiming its armed forces are crushing enemy bases.  The Economist's Middle East Correspondent Gregg Carlstrom told Mike Hosking that this is not true.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Farmers say new KiwiSaver rules are a win for rural staff looking to buy property. Farm workers, rural teachers, police and defence personnel can now use KiwiSaver to buy their first home, or even a farm, due to the Government lifting a long-standing restriction. Previously, these workers were blocked because their jobs required living in employer-provided housing. Federated Farmers' Dairy Chair Karl Dean told Mike Hosking that there's about 50,000 farms nationwide, most with just one or two staff living onsite. He expects 10 to 20% to take this option. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.    New Zealand: 8/10  It really has been quite the week. From the dairy to the spending, the turnaround, without question, is real. The confidence is up and the roll could be close to being on.    Kiwifruit: 9/10  The forecast and plan released this week is a good example of how you think big when you are bullish.     Mitch Barnett: 4/10  We wish him well, obviously, but the geography of the Warriors cannot be escaped. And we get a swap. And more importantly, this is our year.    Air New Zealand: 3/10  In an industry awash with profit, they still can't find one.    Cash: 7/10  The banks are, rightly or wrongly, out of step with this one. We like cash. We may not use it all that often, but enough do. Reserve bank - 1. Retail banks - 0.    LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There is no doubt that Air New Zealand has issues.  In a week of company reports, the vast majority contained good news. Air New Zealand was a glaring exception.  A national airline losing money in an industry that is booming doesn’t make sense.  They have engine issues – that is real and it's not over.  They have eight grounded planes and planes that don’t fly don’t make money.  They have issues getting planes, but that has been applicable to everyone.  So it's a perfect storm of sorts. But if you read the report the engine compensation was $55 million, but the bottom line would have been $90 million if the engines were on the plane.  But add $90 million to the loss and you still aren't making a lot of profit.  They blame domestic demand, or lack of it.  They blame increased charges and they are real. The cost-plus-accounting of landing charges and so on is not only material, but criminal, and the Government as a main shareholder needs to do more.  Then enter David Seymour in election year who says we should sell the thing. "Go woke, go broke" and "they are too politically motivated," says Seymour.  Seymour is wrong. We need a national airline. Just imagine the sale to a private operator and the thing tanks. A country needs an air network and Jetstar isn't it. The Government has saved Air New Zealand before, they could do it again as a country with no airline is not a country.  But that doesn’t mean Seymour is completely wrong; Air New Zealand is woke and it does have reputational issues.  It has focused on uniforms and departure videos to a degree that is laughable. The great airlines like Emirates, Singapore, and Qatar have ordinary uniforms and ordinary videos, but world class product and a shedload of profit. That is where Air New Zealand is badly missing.  Too often they charge first-world prices for budget services and domestically the services are not reliable enough.  There is a line between their genuine issues and their brand issues. They do have problems, but they also don’t look like all they could be and haven't for years.  Some of it is a small country with a small population. Some of it is too much purple and too much PR around Cassava crisps and $800 flights to small towns.  The CEO has a hell of a job. The turnaround, they say, is coming.  If you read this week's report, I don’t see it yet. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Progress towards a nuclear deal between the US and Iran remains murky with all-out war still a potential outcome.   A third round of indirect talks has just concluded in Geneva, with further discussions to take place in Vienna next week.   The pressure's on Iran, with the US deploying its biggest military build-up to the Middle East in decades.  US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking the debate about whether an attack is viable is spilling out into the public now.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 27th of February, there’s a material drop in the number of victims of violent crime – Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith discusses.   Air NZ CEO Nikhil Ravishankar discusses their half-year financial loss in a world of airlines making huge profits.  And Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson talk speeding tickets by the kids and Sam's final bill for the dinner at Cibo as they Wrap the Week.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.