The Julia La Roche Show

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." In this episode of The Wrap, Whalen breaks down why GSE release is officially off the table after Trump ordered them to buy back their own debt—a move Whalen calls "politics" driven by midterm election fears. He shares his take on crypto as "a polite form of gambling," explains why he prefers gold over silver despite silver's recent run, and dives deep into the housing market's affordability crisis. Whalen reveals his biggest concern for 2026: the hidden risks in private equity and credit, calling them "rancid pools of illiquid, opaque assets" that could cause major bank losses. He also weighs in on the DOJ's subpoena of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, predicting Kevin Warsh will likely be the next Fed chair, and closes with his outlook on markets, the dollar, and bank stocks.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome back to the Wrap with Chris Whalen0:30 GSE release officially off the table?2:32 The $200 billion announcement is politics 4:08 Political landscape and midterm elections 4:49 Crypto legislation falls apart 5:14 Crypto as speculation vs. gold & silver 6:40 Silver's short squeeze and volatility 8:30 Gold vs. silver as long-term trades 9:07 Copper and Dr. Copper as economic indicator 10:10 Housing policy and affordability crisis 12:10 Will the Fed allow home prices to fall? 14:30 Bank earnings season takeaways 16:50 Consumer delinquencies and economic warning signs 18:12 The hidden risk in private equity and credit 19:48 The "POOP" problem in private lending 21:42 Private credit as a ticking time bomb 22:58 Jerome Powell's DOJ subpoena 24:21 Kevin Warsh and the future of the Fed 27:05 Could the Fed resume MBS purchases? 28:56 Viewer question: NLY/Annaly REIT 30:52 Parting thoughts and 2026 outlook 31:46 Closing

Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners and author of The Boock Report, sees "bells ringing" on the AI tech trade with Oracle, CoreWeave, and Nvidia showing tiredness, and warns the question is whether the baton can be passed to other sectors without the market falling apart. His three favorite groups for 2026 are energy (where $60 oil is "one of the cheapest assets in the world" and he sees $70+ minimum), agriculture (fertilizer stocks like Mosaic and Nutrient), and beaten-down consumer staples offering "bond-like dividend yields with equity-like upside." On Venezuela, he disagrees with the oil-for-midterms thesis - it's really about stiff-arming China, Russia, and Iran, and won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years anyway. He's been trimming silver after its vertical move toward $100 but still likes gold driven by central bank buying and dollar diversification. His biggest concern: if we lose the AI trade, its dominance is so large it could take everything down with it.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvarTimestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Boockvar01:18 2025 retro: World markets did really well, fire lit under international markets03:15 Bells ringing on AI tech trade - Oracle, CoreWeave, Nvidia tiredness05:45 China competition in AI - models more applicable, monetizing faster06:30 Bifurcated economy: Manufacturing recession, lower-middle income spending weak07:45 Data center build out - question of when not if it slows08:30 Delta earnings: Premium cabin strong, main cabin no growth09:15 Europe bifurcated too: Germany/France struggling, Spain/Greece doing well11:36 Three favorite groups for 2026: Energy, ag, consumer staples12:15 Energy: Bearish sentiment extreme, contrarian setup, CFTC net longs at 15-year lows13:30 Venezuela: 5-10 years before notable production increase14:15 OPEC production lagging quotas - most running at full capacity15:00 US shale production slowing, rolling over even in Permian15:45 Peak oil demand pushed out - hybrids winning, EV demand delayed16:30 Ag: Fertilizer stocks - Mosaic, Nutrient - down and out value plays17:15 Consumer staples destroyed over 12 months - deep value now17:52 Names: Kimberly Clark, Nestle, Pepsi, ConAgra, Coke, Reynolds18:24 Oil at $60 is one of the cheapest assets in the world - sees $70 minimum19:15 Energy holdings: Exxon, BP, Shell, Canadian Natural Resources, Oxy, Noble, EQT23:44 Venezuela won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years - focused on near-term25:32 Inflation: Conflicting dynamics - services decelerating, goods inflation returning27:00 Next Fed chair will have inflation dilemma - sticky around 3%28:45 Services inflation could rebound in back half of 2026 as apartment supply absorbed29:01 Reaction to Powell subpoena30:09 Powell is done cutting - will be playing 18 holes in June31:28 Last Fed cut was not necessary - took neutral rate below 1%32:30 Need low and stable prices first, then labor market improves35:34 Gold north of $4,600 - levels don't surprise, maybe pace did36:27 Silver at $92 - trimming position, tree needs to take a breather37:30 Gold thesis: Central bank buying, dollar diversification has more legs38:49 2025 lesson: World woke up to opportunities outside mag seven40:22 What not to own: Mag seven, long duration bonds40:46 Japan matters for global rates - JGB yields rising, canary in coal mine42:00 Bullish emerging market local currency bonds - better finances, cheap currencies42:57 EM names: China, Malaysia, Singapore, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Indonesia43:45 Biggest risk: Losing AI trade and gap up in long-term rates44:24 Optimism: Broadening out continues, international markets, commodity trade has legs45:03 Parting thoughts: Investors need to be flexible in their thinking

Jim Rogers, who has sold all his US shares, warns that the American market has been going up longer than ever in history and when people say "it's different this time," you should look out the window and ask questions. While he doesn't think we're in a bubble yet, he sees bubble characteristics forming and is watching for signs to start shorting - like kids leaving college for the stock market and everyone talking about their investments. Rogers is deeply concerned about the $38.6 trillion in balance sheet debt plus over $200 trillion in off-balance sheet obligations, noting that historically this has always led to big problems. He still owns gold and silver but isn't buying at all-time highs, holds positions in China and Uzbekistan, and says he's "not happy" about the US capturing Venezuela's president - calling it "not normal" and "not defensible on the international stage." His stark conclusion: "It's a good time to be an old American. Young Americans are going to have lots of problems in their lifetime."This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia00:00 Intro and welcome Jim Rogers01:28 US economy and market going up longest in American history - sold all US shares02:06 Has the US performance surprised you?02:53 What questions should we be asking right now?02:58 When should I start selling short? Exuberance setting us up for a top03:41 Still owns shares in Uzbekistan and China - assessing China after recent run04:12 Is the US in a bubble? Not yet, but beginning to have bubble characteristics05:31 Worst crisis in our lifetime still coming - debt is unbelievable07:55 Fed Chair Powell DOJ subpoena11:00 US debt highest in history of the world, Fed printing huge amounts of money13:12 Gold and silver performance - owns both, not selling, will buy more if they go down15:34 Room to run in precious metals? Debt skyrocketing, money printing everywhere16:36 What signs would make you short? 17:27 America losing financial wherewithal 19:44 Portfolio: Watching China go straight up, watching Uzbekistan, not adding21:30 Venezuela22:53 Nearly every stock market in the world making new highs - time to ask questions24:56 Greatest strength and weakness as investor? 25:57 Biggest mistake? 27:46 Parting thoughts

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." In this episode, Whalen calls Trump's $200 billion mortgage bond buyback idea "idiotic" and says institutional investors aren't the problem with housing - the Fed buying 30-year mortgages and driving up home prices 50% in five years was the real culprit. He explains the Fed has been "operating like a hedge fund" with dangerous variable duration securities that won't pay off for over 10 years. On Venezuela, Whalen says it should have happened long ago - the Iranians had offensive missiles there that could strike the US, and he's astounded previous administrations tolerated it. He warns AI hype is now a systemic risk to tech valuations, with Oracle's Larry Ellison risking his company to chase the crowd, and predicts 2025's "magical year with no apparent cost for risk" is ending as banks prepare for consumer credit deterioration in 2026-27.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira796Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen00:48 Non-farm payrolls report - weakness supports those saying economy is weak01:46 Rate cuts likely this year on short end, but long-term rates not coming down02:45 Trump's $200 billion mortgage bond idea - Chris calls it "idiotic"07:25 Housing correction already building in weaker markets08:24 Institutional investors not the problem - Fed buying 30-year mortgages was the problem12:04 What would actually help housing? Build more houses, change zoning13:04 NYC 18:16 Venezuela should have happened long ago24:49 AI hype now a systemic risk to tech valuations?27:06 Buying cheap financials - Flagstar below book, knows the team28:39 2025 magical year with no apparent cost for risk - that's changing30:05 Bank earnings next week30:35 Viewer question: Deregulation impact on banks and real estate32:53 Viewer question: If correction coming, wouldn't metals also fall?34:52 Wrap up and parting thoughts

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, argues the world changed forever after the US captured Maduro on January 3 in "Operation Absolute Resolve" - the first time in 100 years a country took out another head of state without consent. He explains this signals the death of the rule-based international order, making gold extremely bullish as countries can no longer trust the dollar system. Woo's key trades for 2026: short oil (December contract heading to high 40s/low 50s) as Trump needs to win the affordability argument for midterms, and he gives 65% odds of a massive $2,000 tariff rebate stimulus package. He admits getting gold completely wrong last year (up 60%) but remains bullish, warns the K-shaped economy consensus is about to be upended if lower oil and stimulus help the bottom 80%, and identifies the AI bubble bursting as the biggest risk - with Microsoft's January 28 earnings as a crucial date.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaWoo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).Links:  Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DavidwoounboundTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome David Woo01:28 Macro picture - don't fight Trump 02:31 Midterm election is the biggest story of 202605:17 Affordability argument - Venezuela about oil - not democracy, not drugs12:45 Tariff rebate? 65% chance of massive fiscal stimulus before midterms16:10 Don't fight Trump - theme of 202616:35 Gold was up 60% - the ultimate Trump trade of 202517:15 Short oil is the ultimate Trump trade of 202619:03 K-shape economy consensus about to be upended20:43 What David got wrong on gold last year26:17 The world is not the same - Venezuela changes everything31:45 US tech lead over China shrinking from 2-3 years to 6 months33:54 Knock-on effects: Bearish emerging markets, bullish defense, bullish gold38:57 OPEC biggest loser - lost Venezuela, may lose Iran42:04 TACO or FAFO? 44:44 Why does stock market matter to Trump?49:34 Biggest risk for 2026: Bursting of AI bubble52:10 Retail buy-the-dip crowd - most powerful force in markets54:14 Wrap up and where to find David Woo

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, warns that despite stock markets hitting all-time highs, the real economy is sinking fast - private job creation has fallen below recessionary levels seen in 2007, and 90% of US consumers are now worse off than going into both the 2008 financial crisis and the 1929 depression. Using his Titanic metaphor, he explains first class passengers (top 10%) are still at the bar while third class is already in the water. Zeberg predicts a blow-off top with the S&P potentially hitting 8,200 before a crash worse than 2008, driven by central bank hubris that will trigger stagflation when the Fed inevitably intervenes. He's long-term bullish on gold and silver but warns of a short-term pullback as the dollar spikes to 120+ on the DXY during the deflationary bust, and explains why there's no easy way out this time - we've exhausted the free lunch of money printing.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: X: https://x.com/HenrikZebergSubstack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H00:00 Intro and welcome Henrik Zeberg01:22 Macro view, the real economy is about job creation, not financial markets04:13 90% of consumers worse off than going into 2008 and 192905:58 Titanic metaphor: First class denying while third class already in water06:56 Chart: ADP private job creation declining to recessionary levels08:26 Illusion of stability: Stock market disconnect from economy09:07 Stock market doesn't predict recessions - look at unemployment11:15 Zeberg business cycle model pointing to recession14:55  Bond market sniffing out problems - yield curve signals20:02 Central banks and the Fed: The hubris problem23:02 2020 changed everything - inflation is back as a factor25:26 Gold and silver starting to show end game signs26:20 If Fed intervenes with more stimulus, it creates stagflation28:03 Henrik's views on gold and silver clarified30:55 Dollar regime coming - DXY could spike32:12 Long-term bullish gold/silver but short-term pullback expected35:35 Navigating different regimes as an investor38:19 Strong dollar implications39:06 Current regime still risk-on, riding the blow off top43:29 Why this recession will be worse than 200848:21 No easy way out - we're at the end of the Keynesian curve49:12 Can we get back to sound money? Only through pain51:41 Under the radar trend: Realization of how bad consumer really is53:55 AI won't save us short-term - actually reduces jobs needed54:25 Wrap up: Think for yourself, do your own research

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" for his 2026 outlook.In this episode, Whalen warns of a market correction comparable to 2008, driven by carnage in private equity where hundreds of companies cannot be sold and sponsors are selling companies to themselves. After a decade-and-a-half Fed liquidity party, he predicts corporate credit will worsen in 2026, setting the stage for a housing market decline in 2027-28. Whalen reveals fraud has become epidemic in housing thanks to AI-altered bank statements, discusses the global power shift as Shanghai now sets gold prices (not Chicago or London), and explains why Powell will likely stay on the Fed board through 2028 to protect the institution - betraying Trump just like every Fed chair before him.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira794Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome back to The Wrap with Chris Whalen01:25 2025 retrospective3:35 Big stories of 2026 05:30 Midterms 08:21 Maxi market correction coming alongside 2008 in textbooks15:09 Will Powell retire or remain on the board?16:45 Will we see a more hawkish Fed in 2026?17:50 Default rates21:25 What happens with housing in 202622:42 Drawing parallels to the Gilded Age26:29 Gold and silver - another good year ahead32:41 Viewer question: Annaly mortgage REIT common vs preferred36:48 What's on the radar next week: Big investment banks piece38:18 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

Peter Grandich delivers his most bearish outlook in a 40+ year career, predicting 2026-2027 could be the most challenging years in 50 years due to mounting debt ($38T heading to $50T), political division worse than any time since the Civil War, and a deteriorating middle class hanging by its fingernails. He explains why this was his best five-year period after moving entirely into gold and precious metals in 2021, with price targets of $5,000 for gold and $100 for silver still ahead. He warns we're in the earliest stages of becoming a banana republic as BRICS launches a gold-backed trading unit and de-dollarization accelerates.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: https://x.com/PeterGrandichhttps://petergrandich.com/https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Grandich01:17 Macro view - not a lot of positive things to say09:47 Best year in five years - gold and precious metals trade13:52 Oil prediction: $50 before $15015:12 Deteriorating middle class hanging by fingernails21:41 Most concerned he's ever been in 40+ year career23:01 Trump's trade war mistakes 28:21 De-dollarization and dollars coming back to US30:18 Solutions: Return to moral compass and faith35:48 Wealth preservation vs appreciation for investors41:31 Passive investing 45:12 The 12 factors of why party like 1929 will bite back47:58 Biblical wisdom on debt and finances49:19 Parting thoughts

Carol Roth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and two-time New York Times best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche again for episode 321. Carol delivers a sobering assessment of America's broken fiscal foundation with debt-to-GDP over 120%, explaining why the K-shaped economy is creating a non-merit-based divide driven by policy and the administrative class wealth transfer. She discusses the wealth paradox - despite abundance, Americans are more stressed than ever due to housing, education, and healthcare costs - and predicts inflation will be the release valve for our debt crisis. Roth shares her bullish thesis on gold and precious metals as central banks shift away from US Treasuries, explains why the Fed's tools are now irrelevant in this fiscal dominance era, and reveals her predictions for 2026 including decoupling from European allies, Fed chaos, and wild out-of-the-box policies. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:  You Will Own Nothing: https://www.carolroth.com/nothing/ Follow Carol Roth on X: https://x.com/caroljsrothTimestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome Carol Roth00:57 Big picture macro view: Broken fiscal foundation04:07 K-shaped economy debate and wealth paradox11:46 Administrative class wealth transfer problem18:33 Is Trump going to fix the broken fiscal foundation?24:37 Do rate cuts help everyday Americans?30:51 Gold as hedge and insurance policy37:50 "You Will Own Nothing" - what's changed since 202345:33 Predictions for 202648:58 Wrap up and where to find Carol

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." In this episode, Chris Whalen breaks down why Kevin Hassett may have blown his chances for Fed Chair by walking back Trump's views, discusses Kevin Warsh as the emerging frontrunner, and explains his reform proposal to return to a decentralized Fed with 15 district banks focused solely on sound money. He reveals why Trump's rhetoric about interest rates is backfiring (pushing the 10-year UP instead of down), predicts a home price correction in 2027-28, and explains why 3% inflation is now the new target. Whalen also discusses why gold and silver are still in early innings, how commercial real estate pain is being quietly resolved in the background, why good bank numbers mask concerning private credit risks, and answers a viewer question about BOJ rate hikes potentially triggering a broader correction.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   https://international-economy.com/TIE_Su25_Whalen.pdfTimestamps:00:00 Welcome Chris Whalen01:10 Kevin Hassett: Did he blow his chances for Fed Chair?03:38 Reforming the Fed: Decentralized model vs FDR's changes04:11 How decentralization would change Fed policy06:08 Fed must be independent of President, not Congress07:44 Post-1935 power concentration with Fed Chair08:11 How centralization distorted monetary policy09:17 Has the Fed been acting like its own hedge fund?10:30 Home price correction coming in 2027-2811:14 Subscribe reminder11:52 Trump's rate talk pushing yields UP not down12:56 Advice to Trump: Talk about growth and jobs, not rates14:09 Kevin Warsh as emerging frontrunner for Fed Chair15:17 Scrap the dual mandate, focus on sound currency16:41 CPI print this week: 3% is the new target17:23 Raising conforming limits encourages more inflation18:42 Gold, sound money, and what Treasury should do20:14 Is sound money viable?21:33 Roosevelt's New Deal legacy and today's problems22:53 Silver all-time high, gold north of $4,300 - still early innings24:22 Commercial real estate pain and which banks are exposed27:10 Private credit, NDFIs and why good bank numbers are concerning29:37 Inflation driving everything in New York and beyond30:22 Viewer question: BOJ rate hikes and impact on risk assets31:44 Wrap up, year-end predictions preview and where to find Chris

Peter Schiff delivers a stark warning: America is headed for the biggest economic crisis of our lifetimes - not a stock market crash, but a dollar collapse leading to an inflationary depression. He explains why gold hitting $4,300 and silver above $66 are screaming signals of an impending currency crisis, responds to Trump's personal attack calling him a "jerk" and "loser" on Truth Social, and breaks down why both Trump and Biden caused the inflation crisis through massive deficit spending and Fed money printing. Schiff reveals why he's positioned his portfolio for a dollar crash (up 60-120% this year in precious metals), predicts a radical left Democrat will win in 2028, and explains the dark reality: Americans will experience a poor country's economy but with higher prices - unless they protect their wealth now with gold, silver, and foreign assets.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:https://x.com/PeterSchiffEuropac.comhttp://SchiffGold.comTimestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Schiff01:19 Big picture macro view: America's bleak outlook04:00 Gold and silver screaming currency crisis is coming07:04 Prediction: Radical left Democrat in White House 202808:39 Peter's reaction to Trump's Truth Social attack10:19 Trump's ridiculous claim that prices are coming down11:37 Biden and Trump both caused inflation crisis13:40 Trump's "big beautiful bill" making deficits worse15:00 Republicans in trouble for 2026 midterms16:28 Trump is not a real conservative or capitalist22:12 Affordability crisis and government spending problem23:33 No politically viable way to right the ship25:00 We need higher interest rates, not lower27:28 Gold up 65%, silver up 120% this year28:30 Why "perma bear" label is wrong30:00 The dollar crash Peter has been predicting32:22 Investors moving money overseas from US stocks34:02 How gold skyrocketing pulls rug from under dollar36:08 Dollar reserve currency status ending38:22 Inflationary depression: weak economy, high inflation44:31 How everyday Americans will be impacted47:09 Early innings for gold and silver53:41 What Peter wishes he said on Tucker56:20 Capitalism blamed for socialism's damage57:59 Wrap up and appreciation

Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 318 to break down his viral three-part series on America's real poverty line, revealing why families making $100,000-$140,000 are trapped in what he calls the "valley of death" - where government benefits are withdrawn before cash earnings can replace them. He explains how childcare costs, benefit cliffs, and tax code changes since the 1950s have made the American Dream nearly impossible for young families, why economists reacted so negatively to his work, and how the official poverty line ($31,200) is completely disconnected from reality. Green also discusses the implications for markets, predicting a 1929-style crash from passive investing flows, and shares what gives him hope: human potential and the power of free people over slaves.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:Follow Mike on X: https://twitter.com/profplum99Read Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/Timestamps00:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green01:00 Genesis of the viral poverty line series and why the American Dream is breaking down05:25 The Valley of Death and the benefit cliffs 06:21 The working poor 07:50 Childcare 09:10 $100,000 used to mean something different12:10 The precarity line13:10 How we got here: tax code changes and the gaslighting about taxes and the 1%16:30 What's the solution?18:01 Implications of fixing the problem21:40 Why economists reacted so viscerally24:18 Sentiment analysis 26:35 Revealing what academics have been missing28:34 The affordability crisis vs inflation debate31:35 We need a different framework for poverty32:47 Where this is headed if nothing changes34:45 Political implications 39:09 What Mike plans to do about it40:35 Markets and passive investing momentum46:41 Wrap up and where to find Mike Green

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down the latest FOMC meeting, revealing a divided Fed with no clear consensus on future rate cuts. He predicts a home price correction coming and also warns of a brewing crisis in private equity, where 15-20% of companies are insolvent and relying on payment-in-kind structures. Whalen also discusses JPMorgan's surprise expense guidance this week, the Fed's Reserve Management Purchases (and whether it's QE by another name), and explains why the commercial real estate market remains a major risk. He expects higher bank earnings next year despite hidden dangers in lending to non-depository financial institutions, and shares his skeptical view on stablecoins and AI infrastructure spending.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen00:49 FOMC meeting recap04:03 Inflation as the #1 issue for Americans05:13 Home price correction coming06:03 Commercial real estate crisis deepening07:25 Fed's Reserve Management Purchases explained09:22 Fed managing liquidity into year-end11:35 JPMorgan's surprise expense guidance14:33 NDFIs: Lending reminiscent of 1920s practices15:45 Private equity insolvency crisis? (15-20% insolvent)16:51 Deflationary risk from forced asset sales22:45 Private credit hidden risk23:53 2026 outlook24:24 Ginnie Mae vs Fannie/Freddie liquidity problem26:28 Do stablecoins make sense?27:56 Oracle CDS spiking and AI infrastructure spending30:27 Viewer question: Fed control over mortgage rates33:33 Viewer question: Manufacturing renaissance under Trump?34:57 Viewer question: Are 10-year treasuries a good investment now?36:16 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for an in-person episode to discuss her outlook for housing and why we could see a price correction of 38%. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melodyX: https://x.com/m3_melodySubstack: https://m3melody.substack.com/Timestamps0:00 - Introduction: Melody Wright joins the show 00:44 - Housing market frozen for three years - lowest sales since 19952:12 - Institutions are net selling and preparing for what's coming 3:16 - The middle class squeezed out of housing market 4:11 - Debunking the "structural housing shortage" myth 6:12 - Regional housing story: What Zillow data reveals 8:03 - Who's running for the exits first: Institutions vs Mom & Pop 9:17 - Home prices going negative for first time in 2+ years 10:20 - 38% correction coming - when housing becomes affordable again11:56 - Why Fed rate cuts won't help housing 14:04 - The China parallel: Over-building and empty inventory 16:48 - Demographics: The silver tsunami and vacant homes 18:15 - Timeline: When foreclosures will materially increase 21:04 - FHA program shutdown and masking delinquencies 23:48 - Why this crisis is worse than 2008 for millennials 24:50 - What Melody changed her mind on about housing 26:04 - The #1 thing people are getting wrong about housing 27:48 - National Association of REALTORS responds to Melody 28:52 - What keeps Melody up at night 30:00 - What a healthy housing market looks like 31:45 - Final advice: Say no to debt slavery and wait

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche to break down the FOMC and discuss her open letter manifesto to the committee written on behalf of every hard-working American. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:    Danielle's open letter: https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/10/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-2/Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Danielle 00:33 Reaction to FOMC 01:36 QE? 02:40 Markets are overreacting 02:59 Danielle's open letter to The Federal Open Market Committee06:57 Kevin Hassett 08:45 How to preserve Fed independence 09:20 Every Hardworking American Who Wakes Up in the Morning Asking Themselves What Went Wrong10:42 The Fed's conflicting mandates 12:25 The unprecedented level of dissent 15:04 Powell was passionately against QE back in 201217:21 The Fed could exert its independence 18:50 Markets think it's QE, but is it? 20:09 Powell 21:29 Fed policy is eviscerating the middle class 25:10 Labor market dynamics 30:12 Biggest fear - civil war without honest monetary policy 32:45 Call to action

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down what's ahead for the Federal Reserve and financial markets as we head into 2026. He discusses Kevin Hassett as the likely next Fed Chair, explaining why Fed independence is more myth than reality and how political pressures will influence rate decisions ahead of the midterm elections. Whalen analyzes the upcoming FOMC meeting, commercial real estate risks, and why he's not concerned about an imminent market crisis despite ongoing concerns about the Treasury market and credit conditions. He also tackles why the Fed's 2% inflation target may be outdated and explains the K-shaped economy that has consumers and investors feeling divided about the recovery. Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen01:07 Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair pick?03:10 Fed independence and political dynamics05:00 Midterm elections and rate cut pressure09:28 FOMC meeting preview, Fed worried about being "late to the party"11:27 Importance of mortgage rates over fed funds15:18 State of the economy, no crisis coming 16:56 Bitcoin and crypto market discussion19:33 Commercial real estate reality check23:29 Private credit myths and reality25:00 Viewer question: Bank preferred stocks 26:50 Viewer question: Why the 2% inflation target?28:14 Inflation vs deflation in asset markets30:00 Biggest risks entering 202630:27 Surprise events and systemic risk31:21 K-shaped economy and recovery paths33:00 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

Hugh Hendry, "The Acid Capitalist," returns to the Julia La Roche Show. Hendry breaks down his "macro compass" portfolio framework: 25% equities (overweight Japanese stocks after their 35-year breakout), 25% US treasuries (buying TLT after a 50% decline), 25% alternatives (Bitcoin over gold due to market cap), and 25% strategic cash. His thesis: the treasury market is so large (100% of GDP) that it's prevented inflation despite massive deficit spending, but AI will cause 20% unemployment within 2-3 years. That unemployment will force governments into redistribution mode, finally breaking the system's ability to contain inflation. He discusses why tech valuations are near peak, why the yen carry trade matters, and why sterling may be the first major currency to collapse as the UK's service economy gets hit hardest by AI displacement.Hendry founded Eclectica Asset Management, a global macro hedge fund that was pretty much uncorrelated to everything in the financial universe. Hugh started Eclectica in 2002 and ran for 15 years before closing in 2017. He made more than 30% in 2008 betting against banks.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh Substack: https://hughhendry.substack.com/Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-acid-capitalist-podcast/id1511187978 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HughHendryOfficial00:00 - Intro00:52 - The macro compass: 4 quadrant portfolio framework03:52 - Quadrant 1: Equities & why Hugh loves Japanese stocks06:10 - Pattern recognition: Buying 35-year breakouts08:32 - Quadrant 2: US treasuries (TLT) after 50% collapse10:35 - The AI singularity & 20% unemployment prediction12:48 - Cheap labor is over: The end of the China era15:07 - Why corporations will shed jobs (but won't admit it yet)18:37 - Quadrant 3: Gold vs Bitcoin - market cap analysis22:03 - Why Hugh prefers Bitcoin over gold25:46 - The currency quadrant: Which currencies to hold28:15 - Why the dollar may weaken despite being "king"32:28 - Hugh's trade of the year: Yen carry unwind38:42 - The reflexivity problem: AI makes everything cheaper43:15 - Why we didn't get hyperinflation despite massive printing48:29 - The treasury market as a "fire gap" stopping inflation53:14 - Tech valuations: Are we in a bubble?58:36 - Why Hugh thinks we're near peak valuations1:02:44 - Why the treasury market stopped inflation (100% of GDP)1:04:31 - The chaos trigger: 20% unemployment will break everything1:05:00 - Youth unemployment & the rise of socialist politics1:06:23 - NYC mayor & the "no billionaires" movement1:07:06 - The UK disaster: Disability spending & currency collapse1:09:34 - Sterling as first currency casualty of AI

Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute and Austrian economist who correctly called the housing bubble, warns that we're living in an everything bubble with a flock of black swans ready to ignite a crisis. From commercial real estate cover-ups to private equity opacity, data center spending without defined returns, and trillions in government debt, Dr. Thornton explains how Fed manipulation and artificial interest rates have created malinvestments across the economy—and why Trump's push for lower rates will only fuel more bubble activity. He breaks down Austrian Business Cycle Theory, why we're on the on-ramp to hyperinflation with 2026 looking turbulent, and makes the case for gold and silver as essential hedges against fiat money depreciation in a world of central bank money printing and currency debasement.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinksX: https://x.com/DrMarkThorntonFree Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspxMises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thorntonTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Dr. Mark Thornton 01:09 Concerns about the macro economy 6:35 Fed manipulation creating vast array of potential swans 12:00 What if inflation ticks up? Long-term government debt and currency depreciation fears 14:50 Living through an everything bubble 18:40 Fed outlook22:30 Austrian Business Cycle Theory explained 28:30 Malinvestment and artificial credit expansion 34:50 Who really benefits from the Fed's policies? 44:50 Inflation to pay off the national debt 46:00 Gold and silver as hedges against fiat money depreciation 52:40 Early on in the precious metals bull market, silver going above $50 is 'the end of the beginning' 1:00:03 Path to hyperinflation 1:07:01 Bitcoin and Austrian School of Economics compatibility 1:10:31 Final thoughts and closing

Professor Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on 311. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaIn this episode, Professor Hanke warns that the Fed's decision to end quantitative tightening in December, combined with bank deregulation unlocking $2.6 trillion in lending capacity, could trigger dangerous money supply acceleration and reignite asset bubbles and inflation. He criticizes the Fed for "flying blind" by rejecting the quantity theory of money in favor of a volatile "data-dependent" approach. On recession, Professor Hanke sits "on the fence"—labor weakness justifies rate cuts, but money supply acceleration could prevent any slowdown. He maintains gold will reach $6,000 in this secular bull market.Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hankeMaking Money Work book: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/13942572600:00 - Intro and welcome back Professor Steve Hanke 1:20 - Big picture: money supply as fuel for the economy 3:30 - Fed ending quantitative tightening in December 6:00 - Yellow lights flashing: potential money supply acceleration, asset price inflation concerns and stock market bubble Fed 8:35 - Fed funds rate cut probability fluctuating wildly 9:36 - Quantity theory of money vs. data-dependent Fed 11:37 - Flying blind by ignoring money supply 21:30 - Making Money Work book discussion 26:15 - Gold consolidating around $4,000, why it's headed to $6,00029:24 - Recession probability: sitting on the fence 30:45 - Labor market weakness vs. money supply acceleration 32:12 - Why rate cut is justified based on labor market 33:13 - Closing

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 310. McDonald warns that a credit crisis has officially started with 16+ "idiosyncratic" events spreading tentacles across markets, while a big disruption is coming in Q1 as $6-8 trillion may leave the NASDAQ 100. But this creates an incredible opportunity for the cheap part of the market as the great rotation from growth to value begins, with coal and natural gas companies offering 15% free cash flow yields while tech giants burn cash in an AI arms race that's destroying their balance sheets. The market has internally crashed with the average S&P stock down 30-40%, but a handful of names are masking the carnage—and Larry reveals where the smart money is rotating.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMKTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/0:00 Intro: Welcome back Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report & author of "How to Listen When Markets Speak" 1:30 Credit bulls turning bearish 3:50 Credit most times leads equities7:12 When does 'idiosyncratic' become systemic? 9:32 Opportunities for great stock buys 13:30 Nvidia 15:03 Dark side of passive investing 20:40 Set up for an incredible rotation from growth to value 22:00 Update on the hard asset thesis, commodity bull market 23:20 AI power trade26:45 Banks buying Credit Default Swaps 29:20 A credit crisis has started 32:00 Parting thoughts