The Julia La Roche Show

170 Episodes

Reverse

#169 Carol Roth: The Stagflationary Economy Is Making A Resurgence

2024-05-1431:45

Carol Roth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and two-time New York Times best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche again for episode 169 to discuss the state of the economy, the Federal Reserve, the impact of deficit spending, and the challenges faced by small businesses. Links: You Will Own Nothing: https://www.carolroth.com/nothing/ Follow Carol Roth on Twitter: https://twitter.com/caroljsroth Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Carol Roth 1:15 Macro picture, assessment of the economy 2:30 Massive inflation in assets 3:20 Economy has been “window dressed” 5:40 Deficit-driven economy 8:30 Fiscal dominance 10:45 Stagflation 15:00 The Fed 17:00 Debt 20:00 Gold 24:00 State of small business today

#168 The ‘Acid Capitalist’ Hugh Hendry On The Fed’s No-Win Situation, The Fragility Of Valuations, Gold As ‘The Alchemy Of Chaos,’ Buying Bitcoin, And The Dangerous Sign The Japanese Yen Is Sending

2024-05-0901:21:31

The Acid Capitalist Hugh Hendry joins Julia La Roche again, this time in the East Village, for an in-person, unfiltered conversation on macro and more. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-acid-capitalist-podcast/id1511187978 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HughHendryOfficial Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome 1:36 Macro view and the Fed’s no-win situation 2:45 Revisiting financial history 4:20 The U.S. has become the economic locomotive of global growth 5:00 Policy error of fiscal conservatism 6:30 Everything is expensive 7:52 Invest 10% of net worth 9:00 Hugh’s hedge fund years 12:24 ‘To manage a lot of money you have to be serious.’ — the suits 19:07 Looking at charts and patterns while listening to Pink Floyd 24:30 China 36:19 The bubble today - the fragility of valuations 38:00 How you want to be allocated 44:16 The conceit and the arrogance of a well-formed argument 47:00 Hugh’s mistake buying Reader’s Digest in the 90s 48:48 Hugh’s go-to interview question: Tell me when you know it’s going wrong 50:44 Gold’s breakout — not an agent of chaos, the alchemy of chaos 52:24 Japanese Yen 53:49 Bitcoin 57:09 Silver 1:01:50 The Fed’s no-win situation 1:06:49 The Fed shouldn't be cutting interest rates 1:08:47 Present danger 1:11:00 The death of money? 1:15:00 Millennials and Bitcoin 1:18:43 The Bono story

#167 Michael Pento: If Rates Don't Come Down Across The Yield Curve Relatively Quickly, The Economy's In For Big Trouble

2024-05-0721:47

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 167 to discuss the current state of the economy and the potential risks ahead. In this episode, Pento highlights the rising inflation rate, the burden on the middle class, and the unsustainable levels of debt. Pento predicts a slowdown in GDP growth and the possibility of a negative quarter in the second half of the year. He believes that the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates and engage in quantitative easing to stimulate the economy. Pento also discusses the potential impact on the housing market, equities, and the bond market. He suggests overweighting energy, base metals, and gold in a stagflationary environment. Links: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento 00:00 Intro and welcome Michael Reno 00:54 Macro view, inflation, and the bankrupting of the middle class 4:08 If rates don’t come down the economy is in trouble 5:49 Fed rate cuts ahead this year? 8:00 Market is massively overvalued 9:36 Stagflation and how to invest in that environment 11:32 Home prices 13:50 Why Powell can’t wait to end QT now 15:23 Long-term yields might not come down 16:00 Explosion of rates in high-yield will crush the economy 17:27 Gold 20:00 Erosion of the middle class

#166 Nancy Davis: 'Whatever They Say, The Opposite Happens' — Fed Meeting Reaction, Why Inflation Is Here To Stay, And The Opportunity For Investors

2024-05-0238:42

Nancy Davis, founder and portfolio manager of Quadratic Capital Management, joins The Julia La Roche for episode 166 to react to the May Fed Meeting and the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged. In this episode, Nancy shares that inflation is a persistent issue that cannot be easily resolved. However, she sees this as an opportunity for investors, as many people do not have inflation-protected bonds or exposure to the rates market in their core bond portfolios. Nancy notes that during the last period of high inflation in the 1970s, people often turned to commodities and cyclical equities because the interest rate derivative markets, rates market, and even the inflation-protected bond market did not exist at that time. She adds that investors now have more options to protect their portfolios against inflation compared to the past. Links: IVOL: https://ivoletf.com/ Quadratic Capital: https://quadraticllc.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/nancy__davis 0:00 Intro and welcome Nancy Davis 0:59 FOMC reaction 1:22 Fed allowing mortgages to run off 2:30 Volatility, explained 3:15 Fed interest rate policy 5:19 Be really careful about not focusing too much on consensus and looking more at what's priced in. 5:59 Rate cuts this year/ inflation exposure in investor portfolios 7:36 Opportunity in rates 10:49 IVOL (Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF) 15:48 Rates market a leading indicator for you 18:04 Macro picture 19:47 Inflation protected bond market 22:45 Inverted yield curve 24:13 Bonds a good buy? 25:18 Will the Fed cut this year? Will they cut before the election? 26: 22 Assessment of the Federal Reserve/ stagflation? 29:03 Nancy's background 32:40 Parting thoughts

#165 Jim Bianco On Stickier Inflation, A 10-20% Chance Of A Rate Hike, And Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Surge To 5-5.5%

2024-04-3037:28

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 165 to discuss the current macro picture and the potential impact of inflation on the economy. In this episode, he highlights the bifurcated nature of the economy, with inflation posing a challenge for lower-income individuals. Bianco also shares his insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the outlook for long-term interest rates. He thinks rates for the 10-year are likely headed higher to 5-5.5% and breaks down what that could mean for asset allocation. Elsewhere, he weights in on his concerns surrounding the narrative of the Bitcoin ETF, while emphasizing the need for a comprehensive alternative financial system. Links: BiancoResearch.com BiancoAdvisors.com twitter.com/biancoresearch Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Jim Bianco and intro 0:59 Macro picture 1:49 Stickier inflation 4:27 Bifurcated economy 6:06 Interest rate policy outlook 7:50 Fed is not partisan but it is political 9:29 Rates on the 10-year likely headed to 5-5.5% 12:00 The Fed doesn’t change policy in the summer up to election day 13:19 Implications for 10-year at 5-5.5% 19:59 Demographics 24:01 Bitcoin ETF 31:38 How Bitcoin gets to $1 million 34:10 Parting thoughts

#164 Chris Whalen On Higher Interest Rates, Illiquidity, And The Death Of Leverage

2024-04-2533:39

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the big picture of the economy and markets. He highlights the dichotomy between the consumer side, which is doing relatively well, and the commercial side, which is suffering due to low interest rates and illiquidity. Whalen predicts that interest rates will rise, leading to a preference for income-focused investments and a shift away from speculative pricing. He also emphasizes the need for reimagining and redeveloping cities to address the challenges in the commercial real estate sector. Overall, Whalen believes that the economy is producing nominal growth but that people are struggling due to rising costs. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Death of Leverage; What’s the WAC of Bank America? https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/the-death-of-leverage-what-s-the-wac-of-bank-america Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen 0:55 Macro view, we’re in a weird dichotomy 2:55 Higher interest rates 4:03 Rate outlook 7:13 5 handle on 10-year treasury 10:18 The death of leverage 12:00 Confidence 16:43 Silent crisis in commercial real estate 20:25 A qualitative recession 25:15 Election year 27:23 Higher rates and impact on investor behavior 32:30 Goodbye

#163 Professor Scott Galloway: We're Turning Into Something That's Not Very American

2024-04-2351:04

Scott Galloway, Professor of Marketing at NYU Stern School of Business, returns to the pod to join Julia La Roche on episode 163 to discuss his newest book, “The Algebra of Wealth: A Simple Formula for Financial Security.” The Algebra of Wealth book: https://www.amazon.com/Algebra-Wealth-Formula-Financial-Security/dp/0593714024 0:00 Intro and welcome Scott Galloway 1:04 Macro picture of the economy 3:03 Prosperity is not evenly distributed generationally 5:32 The Algebra of Wealth 7:30 Don’t follow your passion, follow your talent 9:20 Focus + Stoicism x Time x Diversification 9:56 Galloway went broke twice 12:25 Divorce 13:30 Having children 15:35 Myth of balance 17:00 Raised by a single mom 21:00 We’re turning into something that’s not very American 25:31 Investing and harvesting 27:00 Our economic policy is we’ve declared war on the young 24:47 Universities, free speech, and antisemitism on campuses 32:32 DEI 38:15 Masculinity 50:00 Parting thoughts

#162 Keith Fitz-Gerald, Investor Who Nailed 2023 Market Rally, Says The Fed Doesn’t Matter — Investing In Optimism Does

2024-04-1831:03

Keith Fitz-Gerald, principal of the Fitz-Gerald Group, shares his macro view of the world and the five big picture lenses through which he sees the world. He believes that investing in optimism and knowing where the world is going is better than trying to be right at specific moments in time. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies that have great demand for their products and services and can change consumer behavior. Keith also discusses the role of the Fed and the importance of investing in optimism rather than trying to second-guess the unpredictable actions of the Fed. Link: https://www.keithfitz-gerald.com/ 00:00 Introduction and welcome Keith to the show 0:53 Simple is better 1:50 The five Ds 2:50 Does the Fed matter? 5:30 The AI Opportunity and Changing the World 8:22 Keith Fitz-Gerald’s S&P 4750 target in 2023 10:50 Buying right now — chaos creates opportunity 13:00 History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes 14:00 Geopolitics and markets 15:55 When in doubt, zoom out 17:13 Portfolio construction 19:03 Took out S&P 500 price target, 5500-5600 may be next stop 20:20 The Fed needs to stay on sidelines 22:40 Are markets healthy? 26:00 Outlook for the U.S. 26:50 Gold 29:20 Parting thoughts

#161 Michael Howell On Global Liquidity, A Re-entry Point For Risk Assets, Monetary Inflation, Gold, The US Dollar

2024-04-1635:22

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 161 to discuss the global liquidity cycle and its impact on the economy. He explains that liquidity is a key driver of asset prices and that the current liquidity cycle is pushing asset prices higher. Howell argues that the focus on interest rates and policy rates is misplaced, and that the long-term rate and liquidity are more important factors. He also highlights the importance of liquidity in the refinancing of debt and warns of the risks of a liquidity shortage. Howell suggests that investors should consider assets like gold, cryptocurrencies, and solid companies on Wall Street as hedges against monetary inflation. Links: Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902 Takeaways Liquidity is a key driver of asset prices and the current liquidity cycle is pushing asset prices higher. The focus on interest rates and policy rates is misplaced; the long-term rate and liquidity are more important factors. A shortage of liquidity can lead to banking and refinancing crises. Investors should consider assets like gold, cryptocurrencies, and solid companies on Wall Street as hedges against monetary inflation. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 1:38 Macro view + liquidity cycle 3:07 Interest rates 6:10 What really matters is the integrity of the US Treasury market 07:47 Hedging Against Monetary Inflation 9:16 Gold 11:56 US public debt 15:15 Monetizing the debt 18:06 Gold is the pole star in the financial system 20:40 US dollar 26:29 Inverted yield curve 31:37 Conclusion and parting thoughts

#160 Bill Fleckenstein: The Fed Is Trapped And Unable To Fight Inflation

2024-04-1143:42

Bill Fleckenstein, president and founder of Fleckenstein Capital, discusses the macro view of the world and the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies. He criticizes the Fed for its incompetence and reckless policies that have led to the creation of two huge bubbles and misallocated capital. Fleckenstein also highlights the power of the passive bid in distorting the market and the importance of understanding its effects. He believes that the stock market has become a lagging indicator and that the Fed is trapped and unable to fight inflation. Elsewhere, Fleckenstein discusses the bond market, gold, and silver. He also expresses concerns about the US national debt and the lack of fiscal responsibility. Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website:https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/ Takeaways The Federal Reserve's incompetence and reckless policies have led to the creation of two huge bubbles and misallocated capital. The passive bid, driven by defined contribution plans and 401k plans, has distorted the market and changed what works and what doesn't. The stock market has become a lagging indicator, and the Fed is trapped and unable to fight inflation. The US national debt is a significant concern, and there is a lack of fiscal responsibility. Gold and silver are seen as insurance policies against inflation and financial disruptions. Chapters 0:00 Introduction and welcome Bill Fleckenstein 0:55 Macro view and what the Fed does really matters 4:30 The distorting effects of the passive bid 6:30 The stock market is a lagging indicator 10:45 Equity markets in a bubble or not? 13:30 End game — long end of the bond market rates rise 18:26 Inflation and the inflation psychology 23:53 The Fed’s inflation fight, Fed cutting rates would be an obvious mistake 26:30 The economy and millennials 29:49 Gold price, gold market has figured out Fed is trapped 34:44 Silver 37:04 Outlook on the U.S. and conclusion

#159 Lyn Alden On Fiscal Dominance Macro Backdrop, Why The Rise In Gold Is Indicative Of Fiscal Problems, And Why Bitcoin Could Hit Six-Figures In This Cycle

2024-04-0932:49

Investment researcher and macroeconomic analyst Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, joins Julia La Roche on episode 159 to discuss the macro view of the economy, focusing on fiscal dominance. Alden highlights the wide performance gaps between sectors, which are influenced by fiscal and monetary policies. She discusses the implications of fiscal dominance and the challenges it poses for the Fed's tools to control inflation. Alden also shares her insights on asset markets, including the rise of gold, Bitcoin, and undervalued energy stocks. Links: https://www.lynalden.com/ https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Money-Financial-System-Failing/dp/B0CG83QBJ6 https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact 00:00 Introduction and overview 01:16 Fiscal dominance and its impact sectors 04:37 Fiscal dominance, explained 09:37 Higher highs, higher lows of inflations in 2020s 12:20 Ironically stimulative 16:18 Assessment of the economy, is it healthy? 18:53 Asset markets, rise in gold is indicative of fiscal problems 22:00 undervalued energy stocks and their catalysts 25:33 Insights on Bitcoin, its performance, why it could hit six-figures in next two years 30:17 Conclusion and parting thoughts

#158 Larry McDonald: We’re Entering A Sustained Inflation Regime, Why Trillions Of Dollars Are Currently Misallocated, And The Opportunity Right Now In Hard Assets

2024-04-0434:35

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss his newest book, “How To Listen When Markets Speak: Risks, Myths, and Investment Opportunities in a Radically Reshaped Economy.” According to McDonald, we’re in the financial equivalent of the “Fourth Turning,” where the macro regime has shifted from a disinflationary, austerity-driven world to a new era of sustained inflation and increased demand for hard assets. As such, trillions of dollars of assets are currently misallocated. McDonald highlights the potential for a colossal energy and commodity crisis in the coming years, driven by factors such as the aging power grid, global conflicts, and rising carbon consumption in developing countries. He suggests reallocating portfolios to include a higher component of commodities. Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/ 00:00 Introduction and welcome Larry McDonald 01:21 The macro outlook and the shift to a new era 06:00 A different macro regime, great migration into a totally different portfolio construction 09:05 Inflation 11:53 Trillions are misallocated 16:00 Recency bias 20:23 Early innings in commodities 22:00 Headed for a colossal commodities crisis 26:57 Bitcoin, gold, and silver 31:50 Closing remarks

#157 Dr. Gary Shilling On The Hidden Flaws In The Economy

2024-04-0238:19

Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 157 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy. In this episode, Dr. Shilling discusses the current economic picture, including the possibility of a soft landing and signs of a potential recession. He highlights the narrowing focus of the stock market and the amount of speculation in certain areas. Dr. Schilling also discusses the labor market, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and the impact of inflation on interest rates. Elsewhere, he shares his investment themes, including the US dollar and the preference for US Treasuries. Dr. Shilling addresses the debt situation in the US. He also points to the risks in commercial real estate. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of finding hidden flaws and going against the consensus in making investment decisions. You can Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll-free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/). 00:00 Introduction and welcome Dr. Shilling 01:01 Current macro picture, economy isn’t looking like it’s going into a major recession 06:21 Not a healthy economy, highly dependent on labor market and employment 07:07 Federal Reserve and interest rate policy 10:09 Consumer bifurcation 11:35 Interest rates 17:40 Hidden flaws 21:00 Investment themes 25:35 US Treasuries 27:26 Debt situation in the US 32:12 Bubble on the radar? Commercial real estate 36:42 Conclusion

#156 Tom McClellan On Why The Recession Is Still Coming And Why The Second Half Of 2024 Could Be Unpleasant For Stocks

2024-03-2745:54

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report and a prominent figure in stock market and technical analysis, joins Julia La Roche on episode 156. In this episode, Tom shares his views on the economy and markets in a presentation of charts, from the message crude oil prices send stocks to the Presidential Cycle Pattern and, of course, the famed McClellan Oscillator. Tom explains why a recession is still coming. He also explains why the second half of 2024 could be an unpleasant time for stocks, but we haven't seen the inflection point yet. Tom is the son of Sherman and Marian McClellan, who are recognized for creating the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index in 1969. Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern. He graduated from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years. Links: https://www.mcoscillator.com/ https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc 0:00 Intro and welcome Tom McClellan 0:55 Macro view 1:41 Only 2 fundamentals matter for stocks 2:45 Recession is coming 4:25 Inverted yield curve and corporate profits 5:54 Crude oil prices message to stocks 8:00 Stock market and expectation of a top in June 10:57 McClellan Oscillator 13:20 Presidential Cycle Patterns 15:20 Taxes could be a problem 20:56 Fed Funds Target Rate — staying too tight for too long 25:30 Recession call 27:27 McClellan Oscillator — neither bulls nor bears are in charge 29:50 Markets driven by high-flying tech names, people feeling twitchy 35:05 Gold 37:00 Bitcoin 38:20 The McClellan Oscillator origin story 44:00 Parting thoughts

#155 Meredith Whitney On The 'Bifurcated' Economy And Consumer, Why It Will 'Pay To Be Patient' For Young Homebuyers, And The Coming 'Silver Tsunami'

2024-03-2634:07

Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, discusses the state of the US economy and the consumer. Last year, she did not expect a recession because of the strong consumer. Today, she describes the economy as “bifurcated” because higher-earning households are driving consumer spending. Whitney also explores the housing market and predicts a supply glut that will lead to a decline in home prices, making it more affordable for younger generations. She delves into the demographic changes and challenges posed by an aging population, particularly in terms of long-term care and housing. Whitney also addresses the fiscal position of states and the nation, emphasizing the need for a balanced budget and the potential risks of relying on foreign buyers for debt. Links: https://meredithwhitneyllc.com/ Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 01:05 Macro view, bifurcated consumer 04:19 Sentiment 05:58 Housing market and homeownership 09:21 Timeline for home prices 10:38 Demographic changes and solutions 12:31 Demographic trends and aging Americans 20:31 National debt and foreign buyers 22:46 Possibility of a balanced budget 23:44 Fear and impact of research calls 32:11 Meredith Whitney Advisory Group

#154 Dr. Art Laffer: We Are In The Middle Of A Massive Redistribution Revolution And It's Destroying Growth

2024-03-2101:04:40

Dr. Art Laffer, one of the most influential economists of the past half-century, joins Julia La Roche for episode 154. Dr. Laffer is the founder and chairman of Laffer Associates, an economic research and consulting firm. Known as the "Father of Supply Economics," he is famous for developing the Laffer Curve, a representation of the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue that was foundational to supply-side economics. Dr. Laffer served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board for both of Reagan's terms. In our wide-ranging discussion, Dr. Laffer shares his insights on the current state of the U.S. and global economy, fiscal and monetary policy, and his outlook for the future. Links: https://www.amazon.com/Taxes-Have-Consequences-Income-History/dp/1637585640 Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and Overview 01:08 The Five Pillars of Prosperity 11:13 Factors Leading to the Current Situation 26:08 Addressing Incentives in Politics 30:41 The Flawed Logic of Stimulus Spending 35:17 The Fallacy of Redistribution 37:38 The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies 38:04 The Lack of Economic Understanding Among Professional Economists 39:02 The Laffer Curve and Tax Rates 40:19 The Role of Private Money in the Economy 44:34 The Possibility of a Low, Broad-Based Flat Tax Rate 50:25 The Failure of Government-Controlled Money 54:30 Assessment of the Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy 57:23 The Importance of Economic Principles over Political Labels 01:01:50 Future Topics: Medical Transparency, Debt, Enterprise Zones, and Climate Change

#153 Amy Nixon On Inflation Running Hot And Pivoting On The Deflationary Recession Call

2024-03-1936:131

Amy Nixon, a housing and economic analyst, makes her first podcast appearance in six months after making a pivot on her deflationary recession call. In his episode, Amy discusses the current macroeconomic environment and the challenges it presents. She highlights the combination of tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy as a significant factor in the economy. Amy shares her experience of adapting her forecasts and expectations based on changing market conditions. She also discusses the state of the housing market, the impact of institutional buyers, and the future of real estate agents. Amy addresses the concerns of millennials in the housing market and offers insights into owning a home as an investment. Links: https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW Takeaways The combination of tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy is a significant factor in the current macroeconomic environment. Adapting forecasts and expectations based on changing market conditions is crucial for accurate analysis. The housing market is facing challenges due to tight credit, low transaction volume, and high liquidity. Owning a home as an investment can be beneficial for wealth building, especially for individuals without much investment knowledge. The future of the economy is influenced by factors such as inflation, political decisions, and market dynamics. Chapters 00:00 Introduction and macro view of the economy 01:18 Tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy 03:15 The importance of admitting mistakes and analyzing new data 04:12 Adapting forecasts and expectations for 2023 and 2024 04:23 The impact of changing analysis on housing market 09:46 The state of the housing sector 12:38 The impact of institutional buyers on the housing market 21:15 The housing market and Millennials 25:21 Owning a home as an investment 26:03 The Airbnb bust thesis 32:06 Inflation and the future of the economy

#152 Brian Hirschmann: This Is Probably The Most Dangerous Time In US Financial History

2024-03-1347:01

Value investor Brian Hirschmann, managing partner of hedge fund Hirschmann Capital, makes his debut on episode 152 of The Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Hirschmann argues that we're currently in the most dangerous time in financial history and that three bubbles—stocks, real estate, and global bonds—could all burst. Hirschmann also makes the case that we'll likely see more persistent inflation in the future, given the massive deficits and debt burden. He argues that the price of gold could soar to $7,000. For investments, he favors gold miners and exposure to international equities. Links: https://www.hcapital.llc/ 00:00 Introduction and Macro View of the Economy 00:43 Dangerous Time in US Financial History 03:08 Consequences of Crisis Suppression Policy 04:35 US Equity and Real Estate Bubbles 06:27 Government Debt Problem 08:20 Global Government Debt Crisis 09:47 Government Debt Crisis and Private Sector Recession 11:03 Gold's Performance and Market Environment 13:13 Factors Affecting Gold's Valuation 19:36 Fed Policy and Fiscal Dominance 23:39 Impact of Fiscal Dominance on Gold 27:26 Investing in Gold Mining Companies 31:53 Impact of Bubbles Bursting 35:36 Potential Impacts of Recession 40:10 Likelihood of Recession 44:21 Closing Remarks

#151 Whitney Tilson On The Mistake Of Predicting Doom And Gloom

2024-03-1253:09

Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson, now Editor at Stansberry Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy, markets, and common mistakes investors make. Whitney discusses the strength of the macro picture and the importance of not betting against America. In this conversation, Whitney shares stock picks, reflects on missed opportunities, and discusses the importance of letting winners run. He also talks about closing his hedge fund, lessons learned, and the wisdom he gained from the late Charlie Munger. Tilson emphasizes the need for patience and discipline in investing and highlights the five calamities that can derail a successful life. Links: Stansberry Research: https://stansberryresearch.com/our-team/whitney-tilson The Art of Playing Defense: https://www.amazon.com/Art-Playing-Defense-Falling-Behind-ebook/dp/B091QFHJ6B Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 00:55 Big picture view of the economy and markets 02:43 Caution against letting politics influence investment decisions 03:38 The mistake of predicting gloom and doom 05:24 Betting against America doesn’t make sense 06:59 There are warning flags, but stocks aren’t in bubble territory 8:10 Bitcoin smells frothy, but ‘I would never short it’ 09:22 Stock Picks: Berkshire Hathaway, Meta, and other opportunities 10:02 Bitcoin is an instrument of pure speculation 15:56 Stock pick ideas - Berkshire Hathaway, Meta, etc. 21:26 Introduction to Warren Buffett and value investing 26:48 Stock exchanges as interesting investment opportunities 29:08 Lessons from missed opportunities 36:07 The importance of letting winners run 38:50 Reflecting on closing the hedge fund, mental mistakes investors make 43:48 Running a Hedge Fund with Patience and Discipline 46:13 Charlie Munger's legacy 50:06 The Art of Playing Defense

#150 Alfonso Peccatiello On The Risk of a Global Recession Triggered by China's Deleveraging And The Spillover Effects Not Many Are Paying Attention To

2024-03-0730:30

Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of the Macro Compass, discusses the macro view of the current market and investor expectations. He challenges the narrative of a structurally stronger US economy and presents a contrarian perspective. Peccatiello highlights the ambiguous data and warning signs in the economy, particularly in relation to China's deleveraging process and the spillover ripple effects on other economies. Peccatiello emphasizes the importance of portfolio construction and diversification to protect purchasing power. He concludes by sharing his background and the launch of a macro fund. Takeaways Investors are adjusting their expectations based on the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates fewer times than initially anticipated. The prevailing narrative of a structurally stronger US economy may overlook the tightening of financial conditions and the potential spillover effects from China's deleveraging process. The data is ambiguous, with some parts of the economy showing signs of slowing down while others remain resilient. Portfolio construction should focus on diversification and protecting purchasing power, considering assets that are uncorrelated to one's job and the overall economy. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/macroalf The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.org/ Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 00:22 The macro view 03:08 Prevailing narrative of a stronger US economy, ‘party like it’s 1995’ 05:30 Alf’s contrarian narrative 08:54 Ambiguous data and warning Ssgns 11:42 Spillover effects from China 15:41 Possible recession and risks 27:14 Conclusion

#box-pro-ellipsis-171580060182382{-webkit-line-clamp:2;}The Julia La Roche Show