The Julia La Roche Show

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen warns that private credit could become one of the biggest busts in U.S. financial history — not a systemic crisis, but a slow, painful unwind that will take years and leave many investors with no legal rights. He alleges that BDC accounting fraud is already systemic and the SEC isn't paying attention. On the macro, he says the Fed should still cut rates one to two times this year despite oil near $100 because war is not a monetary event — and that raising into an oil shock, as some central banks did before 2008, would be a mistake. He predicts a significant housing price correction by 2028, calls Trump's economic agenda incoherent, and warns that $100 oil by election day could cost Republicans the midterms. His highest conviction position right now: preserving capital.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 - Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen 0:31 JPMorgan pulling back from private credit 4:32 - The $4.2 trillion exposure number most investors don't know about7:05 - Where Whalen is personally invested right now 8:02 - Is private credit systemic or not? 8:43 - "Risk is never contained" — what to think when you hear that language 11:42 - Will the Trump administration end in a financial crisis? 13:50 - Rate cuts — will the Fed move despite $100 oil? 16:16 - Base case: one to two cuts, oil at $100 most of the year 17:51 - Housing off the radar in Washington? 19:22 - Midterms — is Trump cooked? 20:30 - Trump's economic endgame  23:05 - Gold and silver — breakout or going sideways? 25:57 - Banks28:12 - Viewer mail35:43 - What Whalen is watching next week

Louis-Vincent Gave, founder and CEO of Gavekal Research, joins Julia to break down the three prices that drive every investment decision — the dollar, the 10-year treasury, and oil — and why right now all three are flashing red. With the Strait of Hormuz under threat, Louis explains why he sees oil heading toward $120 and why that number breaks the global economy. He makes the case that the traditional 60/40 portfolio is dead and should be replaced with 60% equities, 20% precious metals, and 20% energy. He reveals why the Chinese renminbi is the most undervalued asset on the planet, why China already won the trade war, and why the US is in greater danger of crushing its allies than itself. One of the most thought-provoking macro conversations you'll hear this year.Links: https://web.gavekal.com/https://x.com/gave_vincentTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome 01:22 The 3 prices that drive everything: dollar, 10-year, oil 2:38 Oil went from $65 to $85 — but Louis fears $120-150 4:08 Why the oil futures curve isn't pricing in a prolonged crisis 5:06 Dollar bear market — why the rebound won't last 6:28 "If truth is the first casualty of war, bonds are a close second" 6:53 The binary outcome on Iran — both scenarios are bad for bonds 7:51 Regime change = Berlin Wall moment — but real rates explode 9:44 "Tails I lose, heads I don't win" — the bond market trap 11:33 $100 oil and Trump's political predicament 13:41 Trump wanted lower energy — "the road to hell is paved with good intentions" 14:06 Why $100 oil is "right pocket, left pocket" for the US 15:58 The real victims: Europe, Taiwan, Korea, Japan 17:23 90% of Hormuz oil heads east — not to the US 18:39 Missing 15 million barrels: prices skyrocket or demand collapses 20:28 Why energy is the best hedge for your portfolio right now 21:50 The new portfolio: 60% equities, 20% precious metals, 20% energy 22:07 The four quadrants framework explained 25:40 Why the 60/40 portfolio is officially dead 27:52 Gold is NOT an inflation hedge — what it actually is 28:37 Why central banks started buying gold after Russia asset seizure 30:08 Western retail has completely missed the gold bull market 31:32 The broken equation: US treasuries no longer equal commodities 32:59 The next shift — stockpiling physical commodities 33:15 "I'm bearish on the dollar and treasuries — but the US has pocket aces" 34:38 Four pillars: fundamentals, momentum, positioning, valuation 36:40 Where Louis sees opportunity: Chile, Brazil, China, South Africa 37:21 China for beginners — the biggest misconceptions 39:05 China's growth miracle — it wasn't central planning 42:06 The Hunger Games of capitalism 44:24 How China really views the Iran war — purely economic 46:46 The most underappreciated macro theme right now 48:19 "Stupidly, stupidly undervalued" — the renminbi slam dunk trade 50:41 Why China kept the RMB artificially low for 8 years 51:49 The weaponization of China's own savings52:35 "China went to the gym" — why it could stand up to Trump 54:18 Who won the trade war? 56:12 The one risk keeping Louis up at night 57:08 "$120 oil breaks stuff" — the number to watch

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound and co-author of the upcoming financial thriller Merry Go Round Broke Down, returns to the show to break down the geopolitical and market implications of the US-Iran conflict. Woo argues that markets are dangerously mispricing the situation, betting either on a quick Trump "TACO" or a rapid US victory — both of which he sees as unlikely. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, oil sitting near $100 a barrel, and Iran executing a measured, strategic response, Woo believes this conflict is far more protracted than Wall Street is pricing. He explains why Trump, now effectively a lame duck after the Supreme Court's tariff ruling, is unlikely to back down given the enormous legacy stakes, and why China's deep investment in Iran makes this the first real US-China proxy war. Woo also breaks down the winners and losers globally, shares his current positioning — short stocks, long oil — and warns that an interaction between rising oil prices, the AI bubble, and private credit stress could be the perfect storm markets aren't prepared for.Links:  Book: https://www.amazon.com/Merry-Go-Round-Broke-Down-Novel-Globalization/dp/B0GCX8Y6KTYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound00:00 Introduction00:43 Setting the geopolitical stage01:16 Why markets are dangerously complacent03:34 Why Trump won't TACO this time05:50 Trump's legacy shift — why Iran, why now07:48 Iran's military capabilities — what the US hasn't destroyed10:14 Oil at $95 — what's actually priced in12:47 The Strait of Hormuz and what markets are missing15:11 Can the Fed cut rates at $100 oil?16:00 Retail investors driving the market higher17:56 Global recession risk19:57 Winners and losers — Canada, Russia, Europe, Japan20:27 Why the midterms are almost irrelevant now24:41 Base case — Trump loses the House26:00 Why Trump is moving on Iran before lame duck sets in28:09 Regime change and the greatest presidential legacy29:55 China-Iran railroad and the real proxy war31:24 Can the US control the Strait of Hormuz?33:00 The Houthis playbook 35:15 UAE under attack — interceptors running out37:04 Iran's civilization and strategic depth39:12 David's positions — short stocks, long oil40:42 When will markets wake up?43:21 Most likely outcome — civil war not regime change45:11 What Xi Jinping is thinking right now47:03 Is this worth the risk for the US?49:43 The Pearl Harbor analogy and China's Belt and Road52:39 Gold, crowded trades getting blown out55:38 Private credit, the AI bubble and the perfect storm58:44 What's keeping David up at night — AI01:03:07 David's book — Merry Go Round Broke Down

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen warns the Trump administration is heading toward a financial crisis, driven by private credit contagion, hidden leverage, and a Washington that isn't paying attention. He breaks down the BlackRock blowup, the PIK loan problem, Iran's market impact, and explains why he's buying gold and staying out of financials.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen00:36 - Classic risk-off period we'll remember for years 02:42 - Lloyd Blankfein says private credit "smells like 2008" — is he right? 05:00 - BlackRock marks $25M loan from 100 cents to zero in 3 months06:50 - Apollo CEO calls this a "shake out" 09:08 -Goldco 10:08 - PIK loans & "POOP" structures — is this the beginning of a default wave? 13:26 - Where Whalen is putting his own money right now 16:03 - "Every asset class is short interest rate volatility" — what that means for you 18:05 - Will the Fed cut rates? Whalen says yes — possibly as soon as March 19:46 - Nobody in Washington is talking about financial contagion — who should be? 22:22 - Tariffs: why Whalen calls the $175B refund story a "huge nothing"23:04 - Gold & silver: why Whalen is more confident than ever on precious metals 26:07 - Iran escalates: what it means for markets & why there's no endgame 27:08 - Teapot Dome, Warren Harding & the Trump parallel 30:37 - Viewer Mail: Is your annuity at risk if private credit blows up?31:49 - Viewer Mail: Is there an MBS story to the private credit unraveling?33:00 - Viewer Mail: The Fed's balance sheet surge — should you be worried? 35:00 - Viewer Mail: Are we heading back to a gold-based monetary system? 36:30 - Final thoughts: what Whalen is watching next week

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down the unraveling of private credit and why retail investors were never suitable for these investments in the first place. He explains how private credit shops have quietly gained access to Federal Home Loan Bank funding through insurance company acquisitions — a taxpayer-subsidized arrangement he finds extraordinary and plans to investigate further. On markets, Chris argues liquidity will be the defining theme of 2026, with money rotating out of speculative and private assets back into public markets. He also flags early warning signs in consumer credit, names the specific companies to watch for deterioration, and explains why the mortgage market needs rates to fall further before any real pickup in activity. On precious metals, Chris details a seismic secular shift underway as India joins China in moving away from COMEX pricing toward Asian markets — and warns that if COMEX cannot deliver physical metal against futures contracts, it could be forced out of the business entirely.Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen0:49 Private credit is unraveling — are retail investors about to run like Silicon Valley Bank3:51 The insurance company play5:20 Does the insurance and private credit connection create contagion risk6:05 Nvidia beats but the market sells it — is the AI trade structurally broken8:07 Why has the broader market held up despite the tech and SaaS selloff9:00 Liquidity is the theme of 2026 10:12 Banks discussion 14:49 Mortgage market — 30 year rates dip below 6%, does it last16:42 Will we see more rate cuts — Chris's expectations for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair18:37 What it would take to unlock the housing market20:34 Tariffs21:50 The most important things for markets to focus on right now22:36 Silver — COMEX and London are losing their role as price setters26:36 Chris's portfolio — gold, silver, junior miners and why productive capacity matters27:18 Viewer question — Basel III, central banks, and gold as a tier one asset29:44 What Chris is watching and writing about next week31:12 Where to find Chris and The Institutional Risk Analyst — 25% off for viewers

Bill Fleckenstein, founder and president of Fleckenstein Capital, returns for a wide-ranging conversation covering what he calls one of the most confusing macro environments of his 40-plus year career. He breaks down how the passive bid has fundamentally changed market dynamics, creating an artificially priced market that is not a true price discovery mechanism and cannot end well. Beneath the surface of a tape that is only a couple percent off all-time highs, Bill sees a stealth rotation away from high-flying tech and AI names into old economy stocks — but without the contagion a pre-passive-bid market would have experienced. On gold, Bill explains why the move to $5,000 is a function of eroding confidence, weaponized financial systems, and unmanageable sovereign debt — and why the bull market is far from over since Americans have barely shown up to the party. He also issues a pointed warning on bonds, arguing the bond market has not sanctioned the Fed's rate cuts in what could be the early stages of the market taking the printing press away from the Fed — and predicts yield curve control is likely coming under the next Fed chair regardless of who it is.Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/0:00 Intro and welcome back Bill Fleckenstein1:39 Big picture macro view - "confused"4:24 Splatterings beneath the surface — what's really happening in the market5:51 The passive bid explained — why rotation feels impossible7:25 The tape holds together while market cap gets destroyed underneath10:58 Why the market isn't cracking — what would have happened without the passive bid12:40 Is this still a free market? The dangerous setup nobody appreciates15:16 Short selling 18:23 Bill's positioning 19:21 Gold at $5,100 24:18 Silver 30:33 Why gold should have been higher all along the way36:00 US debt at $38.7 trillion — is there a breaking point or slow erosion?37:49 Bonds — the big story most people are missing40:00 Is the bond market losing trust in the Fed?41:00 The bond market will ultimately take the printing press away from the Fed42:06 Inflation psychology — why the consequences of inflation are not transitory44:45 Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair 45:37 Yield curve control is coming 49:04 What would get Bill to deploy his 30-40% cash position51:26 The biggest risk nobody is talking about — the passive bid54:26 Parting thoughts and where to find Bill — fleckensteincapital.com

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen analyzes the Blue Owl situation as part of a broader pattern in private credit. He argues that private credit firms purchasing insurance companies is "the fox getting into the hen house" since insurance assets are held at book value rather than marked to market, beyond easy regulator reach. Chris makes the case that public markets are superior due to transparency and liquidity, while private markets mainly benefit Wall Street through higher fees, and predicts roughly half of private equity managers will struggle to raise capital due to poor performance. From his Washington visit, Chris notes redistricting has left few genuinely competitive House seats, discusses a Supreme Court case on Voting Rights Act enforcement, and predicts 2028 will be Rahm Emanuel versus Marco Rubio. He explains Vice Chair Michelle Bowman's proposal to roll back Basel III mortgage restrictions that have discouraged bank housing finance for 15 years. On silver, Chris describes Chinese exchanges imposing trading limits due to supply constraints, commercial buyers sourcing from artisanal mines, and potential COMEX cash settlement, noting he continues adding to gold and silver positions despite volatility.Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Preview: The fox getting into the hen house 0:38 Welcome back — Blue Owl and the private credit blowup 1:23 Chris's reaction to Blue Owl restricting redemptions 3:19 Why this matters for retail investors and retirees 4:21 Two reasons this matters — volatility and annuity risk 5:59 How many people truly understand this risk? 6:47 It's not a headline issue until it becomes one 9:22 The Modigliani-Miller Theorem explained 11:12 Do you dabble in private markets at all? 12:18 How do you see this ultimately playing out? 13:05 Half of all PE managers will go out of business 15:12 Do you get pushback from the industry? 16:06 Moving to DC — upcoming midterms 16:45 The disconnect between media narrative and reality 18:22 Supreme Court case on Voting Rights Act 20:33 Base case for midterms — who takes the House? 22:42 Trump administration's communication problems 23:30 Bold call: Rahm Emanuel for Democratic nomination 2028 24:56 The case for Rahm Emanuel 27:09 Marco Rubio vs Rahm Emanuel prediction 28:23 Michelle Bowman's significant speech on Basel III 30:07 How Basel III distorted the mortgage market for 15 years 32:15 What's going on in silver specifically? 34:55 The silver squeeze — producers going to artisanal mines 36:01 Still long gold and silver, adding positions 37:01 What Chris is watching next week

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, calls the Federal Reserve "borderline cruel" after FOMC minutes revealed several participants wanted rate hikes despite Americans' financial wellbeing hitting record lows. Danielle argues we're already in a labor market recession that "won't be acknowledged for years but is undeniable to the people who are in it," pointing to unprecedented data: 12 consecutive months of negative payroll revisions, 419,000 net job losses when excluding education and health services, seasonal adjustment anomalies adding 140,000 phantom jobs in January, and unemployment survey response rates at record lows making the data unreliable. She highlights that Truflation shows inflation at just 0.7% while the Fed maintains hawkish rhetoric, that 52% of college graduates are underemployed with another graduating class arriving in two months, and that AI is destroying entry-level jobs in finance, accounting, and architecture without any retraining programs in place. Danielle warns about the societal implications of Gen Z and millennials (52.5% of voters) increasingly using buy now pay later for basic necessities like medical bills and utilities, while others use it for vacations with no intention of paying it back. She questions whether Kevin Warsh will hold to his stated principles about shrinking the Fed's balance sheet or cave to market pressure like Powell did in 2018, and reveals that Fed governor Michael Barr is already hinting at expanded social safety nets or UBI to address AI-driven unemployment. Danielle refuses to "gaslight Americans" about the economy and emphasizes the urgent need to think about retraining workers and the societal implications of mass youth unemployment.Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome back Danielle DiMartino Booth 0:52 FOMC minutes: Several participants want rate hikes 1:46 Americans' financial wellbeing at record lows — the disconnect 3:31 Truflation at 0.7% — what the Fed is missing 5:27 What's the Fed missing on the labor side? 7:06 Labor recession in plain sight — concentrated in non-cyclical sectors8:28 Buy now pay later for medical and dental bills 9:32 Gen Z and millennials: Taking on debt with no intention to pay 11:00 A revolt against the system? 12:15 The Fed didn't listen to your open letters 13:40 Rate hike talk while small business borrowing costs are "prohibitively tight" 14:59 Fed being sanguine on credit delinquencies 16:14 What would be the responsible thing for the Fed to do? 17:12 "It's getting personal" — Americans worried about losing their own jobs 18:02 52% of college graduates are underemployed 18:42 Is this AI or just an excuse? 20:08 What happens in 2028 if the pendulum swings? 21:32 Kevin Warsh — will he stick to his principles? 24:01 Is the Fed too beholden to the market? 25:15 Unemployment survey response rate at record lows 27:23 Base case for the economy — labor market recession continues 28:56 What keeps you up at night and what makes you hopeful?

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, predicts that over the next 18 months, markets will see both new highs and new lows amid heightened volatility. Ted currently holds 50% of his portfolio in short-term Treasuries (recently extending some to 3-year), waiting for opportunities as he notes that second years of presidential terms historically return just 1% and typically experience mid-year declines. He argues that financial repression—holding rates low while letting inflation run—is the only way out of America's $40 trillion debt crisis, which is why he's positioned in hard assets including gold, silver, miners, energy, and commodities. Ted recently trimmed silver positions after a 200% move in 2025, expecting consolidation back to $50-60 (from $76), and warns that hidden leverage is at record levels: margin debt as a percentage of market cap is at all-time highs, high-net-worth investors have massive off-balance-sheet securities-based lines of credit, and leveraged ETFs have exploded fourfold. He's critical of private equity for overpaying for companies and using secondary funds as a "gimmick," and predicts this will be a year for active stock pickers as the regime shifts from passive buying to passive selling when baby boomers (averaging age 71 this year) begin withdrawing funds.Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Ted Oakley 1:14 Big picture macro view — dislocation since mid-October 2:59 Year 2 of presidential terms historically poor performers 4:05 Why second years are difficult 5:23 How to prepare for drawdowns 6:51 Why Ted holds 50% in short-term Treasuries 8:21 Can't own long bonds for the next 10 years 9:17 Are we past the point of no return on debt? 11:04 What $1 trillion really means — $100k/hour for 1,100 years 12:03 What's the end game? 13:02 Financial repression — the only way out 13:34 Regime change to hard assets 14:19 Gold and silver — took some profits 16:25 Trading in and out vs. staying long 18:21 Price levels for getting back into silver and gold 19:32 Regime change for hard, durable assets 21:06 Are we due for a major pullback or bear market? 23:09 Hidden risks — margin debt at record levels 25:12 High net worth debt hidden off balance sheet 27:08 Private credit and private equity — trouble brewing 29:40 Would the Fed intervene in a generational bear market? 31:09 The thesis on oil 33:22 Kevin Warsh as Fed chair — Ted's reaction 34:24 The Fed doesn't really matter for stock picking 34:52 Where are you finding opportunities today? 36:58 At what level would you deploy the 50% cash? 38:25 Takeaway for investors this year 39:54 Active stock pickers will outperform 41:05 Prediction for a year from now 42:22 Where to find Ted and closing thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen argues that the AI narrative is stalling and we're witnessing a sustained rotation from tech, AI, and crypto into safer, income-generating stocks. Chris points out that JPMorgan — arguably the best-run bank in America — has fallen from the top of his rankings to 87th place in just six months, a dramatic shift showing managers are rotating into smaller cap names. He describes this as a "manic, momentum-driven market" where the extraordinary gains of 2025 are now being given back. Chris is skeptical of both the AI and crypto narratives, calling them "driven by Wall Street hype," and notes that crypto is suffering specifically because the AI story has broken down. For 2026, he advises looking for safety and income rather than growth, remains long gold and silver despite volatility, and cautions that "this year is going to be a much more difficult year" for most sectors. On housing and the Fed, Chris lays out what Kevin Warsh and Scott Besant must do: swap the Fed's $2 trillion MBS portfolio to Treasury, restructure low-coupon securities into CMOs, and bury them in insurance company balance sheets to unlock the housing market.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and intro 01:00 AI narrative stalling, tech's worst week since November 1:59 Is this a healthy correction or something bigger? 4:58 JPMorgan now ranks 87th — what does that tell you? 6:36 Small caps rule right now — managers rotating to safety 7:30 What does it mean if managers won't own the best bank in America?8:30 The link between crypto and AI 11:32 Chris is skeptical of both AI and crypto narratives 11:57 What's the next legitimate growth story for the US? 13:15 All that trapped private equity capital in tech 14:55 Fannie and Freddie earnings — but where's the growth? 17:00 What Warsh and Bessent need to do to fix housing 19:00 Should the Fed engage in fiscal issues? 21:54 The Fed's real mandate — keeping the Treasury market open 23:00 What should Warsh do with the MBS on the balance sheet? 24:58 Why we haven't seen a typical crash cycle 26:17 What's the trade for 2026? Safety and income 28:08 PennyMac's mistake — buying Cenlar 31:58 Viewer mail34:39 Gold and silver portfolio — lots of opportunity despite volatility35:00 Closing

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, lays out his thesis for a "Goldilocks" first half of 2026, characterized by growth inflecting higher alongside continued disinflation — a very equity-positive environment. However, Warren identifies four key risks testing the market's delicate balance: vanishing MAG7 buybacks due to AI capex, software's existential disruption, Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination (which he calls "the worst pick for investors"), and precious metals volatility. Despite these headwinds, Warren argues the most bearish narratives are overdone. He notes that software has moved from overvalued to fairly valued, that post-GFC markets have returned double digits in every year with buyback contractions, and that extreme return dispersion near all-time highs historically resolves in six-month rallies. His core investment thesis: "When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted" — rotate from bonds into commodities as the ideal portfolio hedge. Warren maintains his equity overweight, expects the bull case to remain intact through H1, and sees the recent rotation as healthy rather than ominous.Links: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/https://x.com/WarrenPiesTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Warren Pies 1:16 Macro picture: The secular debasement regime 3:30 Goldilocks for H1 2026 — growth up, inflation down 5:38 Four risks to the delicate balance 12:34 Is the market healthier than people think? The rotation argument16:38 Software went from overvalued to fairly valued 17:26 Markets at record highs 18:30 Extreme dispersion under the surface 22:18 Sentiment: More pessimistic than you'd expect near ATHs30:11 The four risks: Buybacks, software, Warsh, and precious metals30:52 Commodities thesis: When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted 37:38 Kevin Warsh and the Fed 45:22 10-year 49:53 The economy53:33 Where to find Warren and parting thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen discusses the structural conflict between President Trump and incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: Trump wants home prices to stay high, while Warsh wants to shrink the Fed's balance sheet — and "someone's going to be disappointed." Chris warns that resuming quantitative tightening could repeat the 2018 repo crisis, especially concerning given Morgan Stanley paid 45% for repo funding in Q4 2025. He breaks down the Penny Mac disaster, where Bill Pulte's $200 billion MBS buyback plan caused the stock to crash from $150 to $90 in a day, explaining why "when politicians play with markets, bad things happen." On housing, Chris argues there's no easy policy fix for affordability — prices simply need to fall 10-20% to normalize. He declares last year's speculation wave over, noting "we just ran out of runway," and advises investors to shift toward defensive positioning and stocks with cash flows. Chris remains bullish on gold and silver long-term despite recent pullbacks, urging viewers to buy the dips.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome 1:13 Last year was a year of aspiration — reality is setting in 2:30 Gold and silver pullback — Chris is buying the dips 4:19 Speculative money rotating from crypto to metals (Hyperliquid) 5:00 Still bullish on gold and silver long-term 7:11 Kevin Warsh and the yield curve problem 8:20 Politicians can't control long-term rates — but they keep trying 9:43 Can Warsh shrink the balance sheet without breaking something?11:46 Trump vs. Warsh: Someone's going to be disappointed 13:23 Significant number of realtors didn't do deals last year 14:38 Housing consolidation and overcapacity 15:26 Is housing a leading or lagging indicator? 17:04 The only fix: Home prices need to fall 10-20% 19:36 The Penny Mac bombshell explained 21:40 "Our leaders are not serious people" 22:53 What would smart housing policy actually look like? 24:35 Theme for 2026: Risk off and defensive positioning 25:00 Preserving capital over speculation 26:21 "We just ran out of runway" — the end of the speculation wave  28:11 Viewer mail: Congress stuck between a rock and a hard place29:12 The two bad choices: Hyperinflation or less growth 31:14 Americans hate paying taxes — and seeing money wasted 32:20 Closing thoughts

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, lays out his big theme for 2026: rotation. George argues that the debasement trade is the dominant macro narrative, with the bill coming due for decades of reckless fiscal and monetary policy. He calls the 60/40 portfolio dead, urging investors to dump bonds and buy gold, noting that gold miners could double in 12 months if prices hold. He makes the case that the AI trade is over. Noble sees energy as one of the most compelling opportunities. He expects emerging markets and foreign equities to continue outperforming the US, small caps to beat large caps, and the equal-weight S&P to trounce the cap-weighted index. His bottom line for investors: get out of bonds, buy gold, add energy, put money abroad, and switch from cap-weighted to equal-weight.Links: George Noble's Independent Research Conference: https://noble-capevents.com/X: https://x.com/gnoble79Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro to George Noble 1:17 The debasement trade: The big macro picture 3:42 The bill is coming due for decades of reckless policy 5:10 The US government's math doesn't work — bond yields way too low6:55 2026 theme: Rotation — don't worship the altar of price 7:06 The macro backdrop and where to be allocated 7:33 US exceptionalism is fading — fiscal pulse now in Europe 8:45 China outperforming the US — and it's going to continue 9:48 Rotation out of US dollar-based assets 11:27 Long bond headed north of 5%? Implications for housing 13:27 Credit spreads tight, inflationary boom possible 14:50 The bond market measured in gold — it's crashing 16:26 The 60/40 portfolio is dead 16:55 Inflation: People don't live on rate of change, they live on prices18:55 The K-shaped economy and rising prices everywhere 20:41 Gold update: You cannot be bullish enough 22:30 The song remains the same — macro drivers still in play 24:04 Gold miners could double in 12 months 25:21 Don't get caught up in short-term thinking 26:45 The Dunning-Kruger Institute of Finance 28:48 The death of speculation 29:26 Is it a stock picker's market again? 30:30 The Japan analogy: MAG 7 is today's Japan 1989 32:16 Just avoid MAG 7 and you'll outperform 33:23 Recency bias and why consensus is stuck 34:42 George is not bearish — he's rotating 35:12 Energy: Only 3% of the S&P — massively out of favor 37:46 Oil prices and the case for energy equities 39:14 Venezuela is a nothing burger — fade the hot takes 40:41 AI trade is a short: Nvidia, Tesla, software 43:05 SaaSmageddon and ServiceNow at 73x earnings 45:51 Rotation: The theme in one word 46:11 What should the average investor do? 48:36 The playbook: Equal weight, gold, energy, foreign markets, no bonds49:19 March 11th conference53:00 Closing

Alex Gurevich, founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments, a Bay Area-based investment management firm, and the author of The Next Perfect Trade and Wall Street Journal bestseller The Trades of March 2020, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Gurevich discuss his updated thesis on interest rates, deflation, and the forces shaping markets. He argues that zero interest rates are "not off the table" — and that the probability is far higher than the market is pricing. He sees labor market deterioration happening quietly under the surface, warning that "the less visible it is, the worse it's probably going to be" because policymakers won't act until it's too late. Unlike the consensus worried about inflation, Alex is firmly in the deflation camp, though he notes any deflation can be countered by fiscal stimulus — he just doesn't think the government will act aggressively enough given how burned they were by the post-COVID inflation. He also discusses his newly released second edition of "The Next Perfect Trade," explaining why he kept the original text intact to maintain intellectual honesty about what worked and what didn't over the past decade. He declares the 40-year bond bull market "definitively over," shares his framework on carry as an underappreciated edge, and offers a fascinating take on AI's future energy demands potentially exceeding the output of the sun.Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Next-Perfect-Trade-Magic-Necessity/dp/1544550014/X: https://x.com/agurevich23Website: https://honteinv.com/0:00 Welcome and congratulations on the second edition1:19 The Next Perfect Trade — second edition out now 2:01 Setting the table: The macro view today 3:30 All the fireworks have been in precious metals 4:08 Interest rates are "pinned in confusion" 4:45 Alex's view: Leaning toward zero rates 5:40 Labor market deterioration — the less visible, the worse it will be7:20 The behavior of rates during Fed cutting cycles 8:58 What zero rates would mean for the economy 9:36 The relationship between stocks, jobs, rates, and growth is broken 11:30 Could we have strong growth and weak jobs simultaneously? 13:13 Deflation, not inflation 14:10 The pendulum: Deflation, then too much stimulus, then inflation again15:25 Recency bias from COVID stimulus keeping government cautious16:02 Precious metals: What does the move signal? 18:41 Why the second edition? Intellectual honesty 20:29 Admitting mistakes: "It was arrogant of me" 23:12 Growth as a trader — recognizing your weaknesses 24:08 The one chart to rule them all — is the 40-year bond bull market over? 25:41 Bull markets break up before they break down 27:19 The 2020 bond breakout should have been a warning29:47 The underappreciated power of carry 32:04 Be the casino, not the gambler 33:30 The corporate borrowing rate indicator 36:27 Why the indicator broke down in 2021-23 38:26 Has the macro investing world changed? 39:52 The most underappreciated force in macro right now42:46 AI's energy demand will overwhelm all sources — even fusion45:18 Is energy the trade? 46:55 The perfect trade: Japan is getting interesting 48:40 Where to find Alex and parting thoughts

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, calling him "the only choice" and a "classic hawk" who won't be afraid to lecture Congress on the link between deficits and inflation — something no Fed chair has done in 30 years. Chris explains why Warsh will likely shrink the balance sheet while giving Trump one or two rate cuts, and predicts the nomination may actually keep Powell on the board through 2028 just to deprive Trump of another conservative seat. On markets, Chris sees a more boring year ahead after 2025's extraordinary run, with gold and silver due for a 10-15% correction — though the bull market isn't over. He notes that crypto platforms like Hyperliquid are now trading precious metals, signaling money flowing from crypto into the "shiny object that's moving most." Chris also warns that private equity is becoming a major risk, with one in five firms now illiquid or in default, representing hundreds of billions in potential bank losses.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome 1:09 Kevin Warsh nominated as Fed Chair — Chris's reaction 2:15 Warsh will have to build consensus on the FOMC 3:01 Warsh won't be afraid to link deficits and inflation 3:15 Will Warsh be more hawkish? 4:26 Warsh during the financial crisis — what to expect 5:25 The martyrdom of Jerome Powell: Yellen and Powell did too much6:04 Hard decisions the market won't like 6:15 A conservative Fed puts pressure back on Congress 7:21 Will Trump like Warsh lecturing on deficits? 7:49 Powell refusing to say if he'll stay as governor 9:32 Is staying on the board political? 10:32 What will Powell's legacy be? 12:09 The state of the Fed's balance sheet: Poor 13:21 Central banks should keep assets short — the Fed didn't 14:15 Powell's comments on the deficit being "unsustainable" 16:08 Markets: S&P briefly hit 7000 17:47 Credit-sensitive stocks under pressure, metals outperforming 18:41 Labor market and layoffs: Amazon, UPS, FedEx 19:19 Personnel costs and inflation 19:42 Gold to $5,600, silver to $110 — correction coming? 20:50 Crypto platforms now trading gold and silver 22:21 Central bank gold holdings now exceed foreign Treasury holdings24:26 Where Chris is putting his money 24:43 WGA 50 bank rankings preview 26:57 Private equity risk: 1 in 5 firms illiquid or in default 28:29 AI companies leveraged to their eyebrows 28:50 Viewer mail: Taking profits on Annaly?32:29 Parting thoughts: Earnings, Warsh, and what's ahead 34:47 Closing

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, breaks down why the Fed's decision to pause was both premature and political, arguing Powell is "committing policy errors to quietly dig at the administration." She explains why the Fed should have cut today — and why she believes we need 100 basis points of cuts given deteriorating labor market data that Powell is choosing to ignore. Danielle unpacks the DOJ subpoena drama, revealing that betting markets dropped Powell's odds of leaving by August from 90% to 60% after the charges, and she believes he's now "enjoying the cat and mouse" with Trump. She revisits her open letter calling for the FOMC to elect Chris Waller as chair, explains why Rick Rieder would be "inviting the fox into the hen house," and shares her bold prediction: unemployment will have a 6 handle within a year. Plus, she discusses the hidden stress signals in Buy Now Pay Later data and why gold is behaving like a "meme stock." Links: Danielle's open letter: https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/10/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-2/Danielle's open letter part 2: https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/22/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-ii-public/Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome 1:05 The Powell subpoena: Danielle's reaction 3:35 Betting markets: Powell leaving odds dropped 4:51 Powell is the cat, Trump is the mouse 5:54 Why Powell is being political by NOT cutting rates 6:35 How Powell moved the goalposts on rate probability 7:32 The contradiction: Integrity vs. ignoring the American people 8:33 Financial conditions are easy because of passive investing, not the Fed 9:19 The shutdown has affected data integrity 10:05 Outlook for the year: Rate cuts coming? 10:50 Conference Board labor differential — recession signal 12:06 Should he have cut today? Yes. We need 100 basis points of cuts12:52 Open Letter Part Two: Why the FOMC should have elected Chris Waller 15:03 Rick Rieder: Inviting the fox into the hen house? 16:34 Who will be the next Fed chair? 17:35 What we don't understand about Fed chair transitions 19:04 The questions reporters should have asked Powell 21:29 Hidden signal: Google searches for "file unemployment" keep rising22:28 Buy Now Pay Later for dental bills and utilities — the stress is real25:41 Gen Z risk appetite and the environment that shapes investors 26:45 Gold is a meme now 29:01 DoubleLine roundtable: Long utilities, short financials 31:14 Commercial real estate capitulation and bankruptcies 32:14 Bold prediction: Unemployment will have a 6 handle by next year33:20 Parting thoughts: Don't forget about your neighbors 33:45 Closing

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's Davos speech, noting that despite promises on housing affordability, the administration has no real plan to lower prices — and Trump explicitly said he doesn't want home prices to fall. Chris explains why that won't matter: hot markets like San Diego and Florida are already cooling, and he predicts a significant correction by 2028 that could push prices back to 2020-21 levels, leaving every mortgage made since COVID underwater. He warns that Trump will "run the economy hot" to win the midterms, with consequences to pay afterward. On rates, Chris explains why long-term yields keep rising despite Fed cuts and what happens if a new Fed chairman loses an FOMC vote. He also discusses gold's march toward $5,000, calling it "the return of gold" as central banks worldwide reverse 70 years of policy, and weighs in on the FDIC's approval of Ford and GM to establish deposit-taking banks.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira802Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and intro 0:50 Trump at Davos: Greenland walkback and housing 2:55 The two sides of housing: Owners vs. buyers 4:00 401(k) withdrawals for down payments — does it help? 5:00 Why stoking demand pushes prices higher 6:17 Hot markets cool first: San Diego, Florida, Carolinas 7:58 Demographics and housing: Boomers vs. millennials 8:37 Rate cuts coming and the 2028 correction 9:35 What happens if prices fall 20%? Every post-COVID loan underwater10:10 Signs to watch for a broader market shift in 2026 12:36 Why long-term rates rise when the Fed cuts 14:15 How lenders are feeling right now 15:14 Gold closing in on $5,000 16:28 Trump will run the economy hot for the midterms 18:05 You pay for it after the election 18:51 What if the new Fed chair loses an FOMC vote? 21:00 What should the Fed actually be doing? 22:45 The asymmetry of gold and silver investments 26:32 The return of gold: Central banks reverse 70 years of policy 27:06 Peter Schiff's crisis call — does Chris buy it? 28:36 FDIC approves Ford and GM banks — what it means 32:46 Viewer mail: Gold as a hedge for real estate 33:45 Viewer mail: Stable coins debate 35:30 Closing

In this special in-person interview, Jim Rickards breaks down why the Trump administration is far more strategic than the media portrays, explaining the "flood the zone" tactic and Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" approach to bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio. Jim dismantles the popular "debasement trade" narrative, revealing that foreign central banks are not dumping Treasuries and that the real risk lies in the Eurodollar market and the $1 quadrillion derivatives system underpinning global finance. He warns that stablecoins are quietly hoarding Treasury bills needed for collateral — and the risk of fraud waiting to blow up. On gold, Jim explains why $5,000 is just the beginning, making the case for $10,000 to $25,000 based on historical precedent from the 1970s when the dollar lost 94% of its value measured in gold. He also offers a bold prediction: the potential breakup of NATO as geopolitical alliances fracture under pressure.More about Rickards: Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy, and his newest book MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links:  http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://x.com/RealJimRickardsTimestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:33 Why the second Trump term is different from the first 5:25 The Heritage Foundation and Project 2025 6:45 Executive orders and legislative wins 8:20 Federal courts and the Supreme Court battles 9:49 The economy: Is it really chaos? 11:32 The national debt: Why $39 trillion isn't the number to watch 13:45 The debt-to-GDP ratio explained 15:30 The Keynesian multiplier and diminishing returns 17:38 How we fixed the debt ratio after WWII (1945-1980) 18:36 Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" strategy 19:19 The debasement trade: Why it's a false narrative 21:15 Are foreign central banks dumping Treasuries? (No) 23:15 What triggers a financial panic 24:45 How the Fed actually "prints money" 26:30 The Eurodollar market: Where real money comes from 28:00 The $1 quadrillion derivatives market 30:15 Stablecoins: The hidden risk in crypto 33:24 Tether's commercial paper problem 35:37 Gold: Why it's really moving 37:45 The Russian asset freeze and its unintended consequences 42:26 Gold does well in deflation too 45:48 The first Pentagon financial war game (2009) 49:54 Gold's trajectory: $10,000 to $25,000 or higher 51:45 The 1970s: When gold went up 2,700% 55:30 Anchoring bias and why $1,000 jumps get easier 56:33 Jim Rogers on the 50% retracement rule 58:49 Silver: Precious metal meets industrial input 63:21 Bold prediction: The potential breakup of NATO 67:34 Parting thoughts: True diversification

In this wide-ranging conversation, natural resource investor Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, shares his macro outlook, warning that the global economy is weaker than most believe. He explains why he sold 80% of his physical silver after its run from $20 to $75 — and redeployed half into silver mining equities where he sees better leverage if prices hold. Rick breaks down the stark math behind America's $160 trillion in combined liabilities versus $167 trillion in total private net worth, arguing that a "dishonest default" through inflation is inevitable. He shares his framework for knowing when to sell, discusses the coming AI disruption to white-collar jobs, offers his candid views on the Fed and taxation, and provides an update on Battle Bank's national rollout after a 54-month regulatory journey.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaTimestamps:0:00 Welcome back Rick Rule0:47 Macro outlook: Global economy weaker than people think 3:19 Precious metals are "absolutely screaming" 4:14 Silver update: The coiled spring has sprung 5:16 What's driving the gold price 6:40 US debt: $160 trillion in liabilities vs $167 trillion net worth 9:48 Honest default vs dishonest default 11:00 Why CPI understates real inflation 13:22 What would fix this? (Hint: Nothing politically viable) 15:29 Where could gold go from here 16:37 Warning: Expect 30-50% drawdowns in this bull market 18:23 Is gold and silver still contrarian? 19:16 Why Rick sold 80% of his physical silver 20:47 Redeploying into silver mining equities 21:57 Rick's investment memo framework 24:00 Silver equities: The leverage opportunity 26:44 Wealth taxes and the nature of taxation 29:52 The New York City socialist experiment 33:35 How we fixed it in the 1970s — five lessons 37:34 Innovation as the way out 38:36 "Take care of yourself — society won't be able to" 42:29 Thoughts on the Federal Reserve 44:45 What would free market interest rates look like 46:56 Signs the economy is deteriorating 49:53 AI and the coming white-collar disruption 54:09 AI: "Greatest memory, no common sense" 55:09 Battle Bank update 58:08 Closing

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." In this episode of The Wrap, Whalen breaks down why GSE release is officially off the table after Trump ordered them to buy back their own debt—a move Whalen calls "politics" driven by midterm election fears. He shares his take on crypto as "a polite form of gambling," explains why he prefers gold over silver despite silver's recent run, and dives deep into the housing market's affordability crisis. Whalen reveals his biggest concern for 2026: the hidden risks in private equity and credit, calling them "rancid pools of illiquid, opaque assets" that could cause major bank losses. He also weighs in on the DOJ's subpoena of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, predicting Kevin Warsh will likely be the next Fed chair, and closes with his outlook on markets, the dollar, and bank stocks.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome back to the Wrap with Chris Whalen0:30 GSE release officially off the table?2:32 The $200 billion announcement is politics 4:08 Political landscape and midterm elections 4:49 Crypto legislation falls apart 5:14 Crypto as speculation vs. gold & silver 6:40 Silver's short squeeze and volatility 8:30 Gold vs. silver as long-term trades 9:07 Copper and Dr. Copper as economic indicator 10:10 Housing policy and affordability crisis 12:10 Will the Fed allow home prices to fall? 14:30 Bank earnings season takeaways 16:50 Consumer delinquencies and economic warning signs 18:12 The hidden risk in private equity and credit 19:48 The "POOP" problem in private lending 21:42 Private credit as a ticking time bomb 22:58 Jerome Powell's DOJ subpoena 24:21 Kevin Warsh and the future of the Fed 27:05 Could the Fed resume MBS purchases? 28:56 Viewer question: NLY/Annaly REIT 30:52 Parting thoughts and 2026 outlook 31:46 Closing