The Julia La Roche Show

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down the unraveling of private credit and why retail investors were never suitable for these investments in the first place. He explains how private credit shops have quietly gained access to Federal Home Loan Bank funding through insurance company acquisitions — a taxpayer-subsidized arrangement he finds extraordinary and plans to investigate further. On markets, Chris argues liquidity will be the defining theme of 2026, with money rotating out of speculative and private assets back into public markets. He also flags early warning signs in consumer credit, names the specific companies to watch for deterioration, and explains why the mortgage market needs rates to fall further before any real pickup in activity. On precious metals, Chris details a seismic secular shift underway as India joins China in moving away from COMEX pricing toward Asian markets — and warns that if COMEX cannot deliver physical metal against futures contracts, it could be forced out of the business entirely.Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen0:49 Private credit is unraveling — are retail investors about to run like Silicon Valley Bank3:51 The insurance company play5:20 Does the insurance and private credit connection create contagion risk6:05 Nvidia beats but the market sells it — is the AI trade structurally broken8:07 Why has the broader market held up despite the tech and SaaS selloff9:00 Liquidity is the theme of 2026 10:12 Banks discussion 14:49 Mortgage market — 30 year rates dip below 6%, does it last16:42 Will we see more rate cuts — Chris's expectations for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair18:37 What it would take to unlock the housing market20:34 Tariffs21:50 The most important things for markets to focus on right now22:36 Silver — COMEX and London are losing their role as price setters26:36 Chris's portfolio — gold, silver, junior miners and why productive capacity matters27:18 Viewer question — Basel III, central banks, and gold as a tier one asset29:44 What Chris is watching and writing about next week31:12 Where to find Chris and The Institutional Risk Analyst — 25% off for viewers

Bill Fleckenstein, founder and president of Fleckenstein Capital, returns for a wide-ranging conversation covering what he calls one of the most confusing macro environments of his 40-plus year career. He breaks down how the passive bid has fundamentally changed market dynamics, creating an artificially priced market that is not a true price discovery mechanism and cannot end well. Beneath the surface of a tape that is only a couple percent off all-time highs, Bill sees a stealth rotation away from high-flying tech and AI names into old economy stocks — but without the contagion a pre-passive-bid market would have experienced. On gold, Bill explains why the move to $5,000 is a function of eroding confidence, weaponized financial systems, and unmanageable sovereign debt — and why the bull market is far from over since Americans have barely shown up to the party. He also issues a pointed warning on bonds, arguing the bond market has not sanctioned the Fed's rate cuts in what could be the early stages of the market taking the printing press away from the Fed — and predicts yield curve control is likely coming under the next Fed chair regardless of who it is.Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/0:00 Intro and welcome back Bill Fleckenstein1:39 Big picture macro view - "confused"4:24 Splatterings beneath the surface — what's really happening in the market5:51 The passive bid explained — why rotation feels impossible7:25 The tape holds together while market cap gets destroyed underneath10:58 Why the market isn't cracking — what would have happened without the passive bid12:40 Is this still a free market? The dangerous setup nobody appreciates15:16 Short selling 18:23 Bill's positioning 19:21 Gold at $5,100 24:18 Silver 30:33 Why gold should have been higher all along the way36:00 US debt at $38.7 trillion — is there a breaking point or slow erosion?37:49 Bonds — the big story most people are missing40:00 Is the bond market losing trust in the Fed?41:00 The bond market will ultimately take the printing press away from the Fed42:06 Inflation psychology — why the consequences of inflation are not transitory44:45 Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair 45:37 Yield curve control is coming 49:04 What would get Bill to deploy his 30-40% cash position51:26 The biggest risk nobody is talking about — the passive bid54:26 Parting thoughts and where to find Bill — fleckensteincapital.com

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen analyzes the Blue Owl situation as part of a broader pattern in private credit. He argues that private credit firms purchasing insurance companies is "the fox getting into the hen house" since insurance assets are held at book value rather than marked to market, beyond easy regulator reach. Chris makes the case that public markets are superior due to transparency and liquidity, while private markets mainly benefit Wall Street through higher fees, and predicts roughly half of private equity managers will struggle to raise capital due to poor performance. From his Washington visit, Chris notes redistricting has left few genuinely competitive House seats, discusses a Supreme Court case on Voting Rights Act enforcement, and predicts 2028 will be Rahm Emanuel versus Marco Rubio. He explains Vice Chair Michelle Bowman's proposal to roll back Basel III mortgage restrictions that have discouraged bank housing finance for 15 years. On silver, Chris describes Chinese exchanges imposing trading limits due to supply constraints, commercial buyers sourcing from artisanal mines, and potential COMEX cash settlement, noting he continues adding to gold and silver positions despite volatility.Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Preview: The fox getting into the hen house 0:38 Welcome back — Blue Owl and the private credit blowup 1:23 Chris's reaction to Blue Owl restricting redemptions 3:19 Why this matters for retail investors and retirees 4:21 Two reasons this matters — volatility and annuity risk 5:59 How many people truly understand this risk? 6:47 It's not a headline issue until it becomes one 9:22 The Modigliani-Miller Theorem explained 11:12 Do you dabble in private markets at all? 12:18 How do you see this ultimately playing out? 13:05 Half of all PE managers will go out of business 15:12 Do you get pushback from the industry? 16:06 Moving to DC — upcoming midterms 16:45 The disconnect between media narrative and reality 18:22 Supreme Court case on Voting Rights Act 20:33 Base case for midterms — who takes the House? 22:42 Trump administration's communication problems 23:30 Bold call: Rahm Emanuel for Democratic nomination 2028 24:56 The case for Rahm Emanuel 27:09 Marco Rubio vs Rahm Emanuel prediction 28:23 Michelle Bowman's significant speech on Basel III 30:07 How Basel III distorted the mortgage market for 15 years 32:15 What's going on in silver specifically? 34:55 The silver squeeze — producers going to artisanal mines 36:01 Still long gold and silver, adding positions 37:01 What Chris is watching next week

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, calls the Federal Reserve "borderline cruel" after FOMC minutes revealed several participants wanted rate hikes despite Americans' financial wellbeing hitting record lows. Danielle argues we're already in a labor market recession that "won't be acknowledged for years but is undeniable to the people who are in it," pointing to unprecedented data: 12 consecutive months of negative payroll revisions, 419,000 net job losses when excluding education and health services, seasonal adjustment anomalies adding 140,000 phantom jobs in January, and unemployment survey response rates at record lows making the data unreliable. She highlights that Truflation shows inflation at just 0.7% while the Fed maintains hawkish rhetoric, that 52% of college graduates are underemployed with another graduating class arriving in two months, and that AI is destroying entry-level jobs in finance, accounting, and architecture without any retraining programs in place. Danielle warns about the societal implications of Gen Z and millennials (52.5% of voters) increasingly using buy now pay later for basic necessities like medical bills and utilities, while others use it for vacations with no intention of paying it back. She questions whether Kevin Warsh will hold to his stated principles about shrinking the Fed's balance sheet or cave to market pressure like Powell did in 2018, and reveals that Fed governor Michael Barr is already hinting at expanded social safety nets or UBI to address AI-driven unemployment. Danielle refuses to "gaslight Americans" about the economy and emphasizes the urgent need to think about retraining workers and the societal implications of mass youth unemployment.Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome back Danielle DiMartino Booth 0:52 FOMC minutes: Several participants want rate hikes 1:46 Americans' financial wellbeing at record lows — the disconnect 3:31 Truflation at 0.7% — what the Fed is missing 5:27 What's the Fed missing on the labor side? 7:06 Labor recession in plain sight — concentrated in non-cyclical sectors8:28 Buy now pay later for medical and dental bills 9:32 Gen Z and millennials: Taking on debt with no intention to pay 11:00 A revolt against the system? 12:15 The Fed didn't listen to your open letters 13:40 Rate hike talk while small business borrowing costs are "prohibitively tight" 14:59 Fed being sanguine on credit delinquencies 16:14 What would be the responsible thing for the Fed to do? 17:12 "It's getting personal" — Americans worried about losing their own jobs 18:02 52% of college graduates are underemployed 18:42 Is this AI or just an excuse? 20:08 What happens in 2028 if the pendulum swings? 21:32 Kevin Warsh — will he stick to his principles? 24:01 Is the Fed too beholden to the market? 25:15 Unemployment survey response rate at record lows 27:23 Base case for the economy — labor market recession continues 28:56 What keeps you up at night and what makes you hopeful?

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, predicts that over the next 18 months, markets will see both new highs and new lows amid heightened volatility. Ted currently holds 50% of his portfolio in short-term Treasuries (recently extending some to 3-year), waiting for opportunities as he notes that second years of presidential terms historically return just 1% and typically experience mid-year declines. He argues that financial repression—holding rates low while letting inflation run—is the only way out of America's $40 trillion debt crisis, which is why he's positioned in hard assets including gold, silver, miners, energy, and commodities. Ted recently trimmed silver positions after a 200% move in 2025, expecting consolidation back to $50-60 (from $76), and warns that hidden leverage is at record levels: margin debt as a percentage of market cap is at all-time highs, high-net-worth investors have massive off-balance-sheet securities-based lines of credit, and leveraged ETFs have exploded fourfold. He's critical of private equity for overpaying for companies and using secondary funds as a "gimmick," and predicts this will be a year for active stock pickers as the regime shifts from passive buying to passive selling when baby boomers (averaging age 71 this year) begin withdrawing funds.Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Ted Oakley 1:14 Big picture macro view — dislocation since mid-October 2:59 Year 2 of presidential terms historically poor performers 4:05 Why second years are difficult 5:23 How to prepare for drawdowns 6:51 Why Ted holds 50% in short-term Treasuries 8:21 Can't own long bonds for the next 10 years 9:17 Are we past the point of no return on debt? 11:04 What $1 trillion really means — $100k/hour for 1,100 years 12:03 What's the end game? 13:02 Financial repression — the only way out 13:34 Regime change to hard assets 14:19 Gold and silver — took some profits 16:25 Trading in and out vs. staying long 18:21 Price levels for getting back into silver and gold 19:32 Regime change for hard, durable assets 21:06 Are we due for a major pullback or bear market? 23:09 Hidden risks — margin debt at record levels 25:12 High net worth debt hidden off balance sheet 27:08 Private credit and private equity — trouble brewing 29:40 Would the Fed intervene in a generational bear market? 31:09 The thesis on oil 33:22 Kevin Warsh as Fed chair — Ted's reaction 34:24 The Fed doesn't really matter for stock picking 34:52 Where are you finding opportunities today? 36:58 At what level would you deploy the 50% cash? 38:25 Takeaway for investors this year 39:54 Active stock pickers will outperform 41:05 Prediction for a year from now 42:22 Where to find Ted and closing thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen argues that the AI narrative is stalling and we're witnessing a sustained rotation from tech, AI, and crypto into safer, income-generating stocks. Chris points out that JPMorgan — arguably the best-run bank in America — has fallen from the top of his rankings to 87th place in just six months, a dramatic shift showing managers are rotating into smaller cap names. He describes this as a "manic, momentum-driven market" where the extraordinary gains of 2025 are now being given back. Chris is skeptical of both the AI and crypto narratives, calling them "driven by Wall Street hype," and notes that crypto is suffering specifically because the AI story has broken down. For 2026, he advises looking for safety and income rather than growth, remains long gold and silver despite volatility, and cautions that "this year is going to be a much more difficult year" for most sectors. On housing and the Fed, Chris lays out what Kevin Warsh and Scott Besant must do: swap the Fed's $2 trillion MBS portfolio to Treasury, restructure low-coupon securities into CMOs, and bury them in insurance company balance sheets to unlock the housing market.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and intro 01:00 AI narrative stalling, tech's worst week since November 1:59 Is this a healthy correction or something bigger? 4:58 JPMorgan now ranks 87th — what does that tell you? 6:36 Small caps rule right now — managers rotating to safety 7:30 What does it mean if managers won't own the best bank in America?8:30 The link between crypto and AI 11:32 Chris is skeptical of both AI and crypto narratives 11:57 What's the next legitimate growth story for the US? 13:15 All that trapped private equity capital in tech 14:55 Fannie and Freddie earnings — but where's the growth? 17:00 What Warsh and Bessent need to do to fix housing 19:00 Should the Fed engage in fiscal issues? 21:54 The Fed's real mandate — keeping the Treasury market open 23:00 What should Warsh do with the MBS on the balance sheet? 24:58 Why we haven't seen a typical crash cycle 26:17 What's the trade for 2026? Safety and income 28:08 PennyMac's mistake — buying Cenlar 31:58 Viewer mail34:39 Gold and silver portfolio — lots of opportunity despite volatility35:00 Closing

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, lays out his thesis for a "Goldilocks" first half of 2026, characterized by growth inflecting higher alongside continued disinflation — a very equity-positive environment. However, Warren identifies four key risks testing the market's delicate balance: vanishing MAG7 buybacks due to AI capex, software's existential disruption, Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination (which he calls "the worst pick for investors"), and precious metals volatility. Despite these headwinds, Warren argues the most bearish narratives are overdone. He notes that software has moved from overvalued to fairly valued, that post-GFC markets have returned double digits in every year with buyback contractions, and that extreme return dispersion near all-time highs historically resolves in six-month rallies. His core investment thesis: "When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted" — rotate from bonds into commodities as the ideal portfolio hedge. Warren maintains his equity overweight, expects the bull case to remain intact through H1, and sees the recent rotation as healthy rather than ominous.Links: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/https://x.com/WarrenPiesTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Warren Pies 1:16 Macro picture: The secular debasement regime 3:30 Goldilocks for H1 2026 — growth up, inflation down 5:38 Four risks to the delicate balance 12:34 Is the market healthier than people think? The rotation argument16:38 Software went from overvalued to fairly valued 17:26 Markets at record highs 18:30 Extreme dispersion under the surface 22:18 Sentiment: More pessimistic than you'd expect near ATHs30:11 The four risks: Buybacks, software, Warsh, and precious metals30:52 Commodities thesis: When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted 37:38 Kevin Warsh and the Fed 45:22 10-year 49:53 The economy53:33 Where to find Warren and parting thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen discusses the structural conflict between President Trump and incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: Trump wants home prices to stay high, while Warsh wants to shrink the Fed's balance sheet — and "someone's going to be disappointed." Chris warns that resuming quantitative tightening could repeat the 2018 repo crisis, especially concerning given Morgan Stanley paid 45% for repo funding in Q4 2025. He breaks down the Penny Mac disaster, where Bill Pulte's $200 billion MBS buyback plan caused the stock to crash from $150 to $90 in a day, explaining why "when politicians play with markets, bad things happen." On housing, Chris argues there's no easy policy fix for affordability — prices simply need to fall 10-20% to normalize. He declares last year's speculation wave over, noting "we just ran out of runway," and advises investors to shift toward defensive positioning and stocks with cash flows. Chris remains bullish on gold and silver long-term despite recent pullbacks, urging viewers to buy the dips.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome 1:13 Last year was a year of aspiration — reality is setting in 2:30 Gold and silver pullback — Chris is buying the dips 4:19 Speculative money rotating from crypto to metals (Hyperliquid) 5:00 Still bullish on gold and silver long-term 7:11 Kevin Warsh and the yield curve problem 8:20 Politicians can't control long-term rates — but they keep trying 9:43 Can Warsh shrink the balance sheet without breaking something?11:46 Trump vs. Warsh: Someone's going to be disappointed 13:23 Significant number of realtors didn't do deals last year 14:38 Housing consolidation and overcapacity 15:26 Is housing a leading or lagging indicator? 17:04 The only fix: Home prices need to fall 10-20% 19:36 The Penny Mac bombshell explained 21:40 "Our leaders are not serious people" 22:53 What would smart housing policy actually look like? 24:35 Theme for 2026: Risk off and defensive positioning 25:00 Preserving capital over speculation 26:21 "We just ran out of runway" — the end of the speculation wave  28:11 Viewer mail: Congress stuck between a rock and a hard place29:12 The two bad choices: Hyperinflation or less growth 31:14 Americans hate paying taxes — and seeing money wasted 32:20 Closing thoughts

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, lays out his big theme for 2026: rotation. George argues that the debasement trade is the dominant macro narrative, with the bill coming due for decades of reckless fiscal and monetary policy. He calls the 60/40 portfolio dead, urging investors to dump bonds and buy gold, noting that gold miners could double in 12 months if prices hold. He makes the case that the AI trade is over. Noble sees energy as one of the most compelling opportunities. He expects emerging markets and foreign equities to continue outperforming the US, small caps to beat large caps, and the equal-weight S&P to trounce the cap-weighted index. His bottom line for investors: get out of bonds, buy gold, add energy, put money abroad, and switch from cap-weighted to equal-weight.Links: George Noble's Independent Research Conference: https://noble-capevents.com/X: https://x.com/gnoble79Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro to George Noble 1:17 The debasement trade: The big macro picture 3:42 The bill is coming due for decades of reckless policy 5:10 The US government's math doesn't work — bond yields way too low6:55 2026 theme: Rotation — don't worship the altar of price 7:06 The macro backdrop and where to be allocated 7:33 US exceptionalism is fading — fiscal pulse now in Europe 8:45 China outperforming the US — and it's going to continue 9:48 Rotation out of US dollar-based assets 11:27 Long bond headed north of 5%? Implications for housing 13:27 Credit spreads tight, inflationary boom possible 14:50 The bond market measured in gold — it's crashing 16:26 The 60/40 portfolio is dead 16:55 Inflation: People don't live on rate of change, they live on prices18:55 The K-shaped economy and rising prices everywhere 20:41 Gold update: You cannot be bullish enough 22:30 The song remains the same — macro drivers still in play 24:04 Gold miners could double in 12 months 25:21 Don't get caught up in short-term thinking 26:45 The Dunning-Kruger Institute of Finance 28:48 The death of speculation 29:26 Is it a stock picker's market again? 30:30 The Japan analogy: MAG 7 is today's Japan 1989 32:16 Just avoid MAG 7 and you'll outperform 33:23 Recency bias and why consensus is stuck 34:42 George is not bearish — he's rotating 35:12 Energy: Only 3% of the S&P — massively out of favor 37:46 Oil prices and the case for energy equities 39:14 Venezuela is a nothing burger — fade the hot takes 40:41 AI trade is a short: Nvidia, Tesla, software 43:05 SaaSmageddon and ServiceNow at 73x earnings 45:51 Rotation: The theme in one word 46:11 What should the average investor do? 48:36 The playbook: Equal weight, gold, energy, foreign markets, no bonds49:19 March 11th conference53:00 Closing

Alex Gurevich, founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments, a Bay Area-based investment management firm, and the author of The Next Perfect Trade and Wall Street Journal bestseller The Trades of March 2020, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Gurevich discuss his updated thesis on interest rates, deflation, and the forces shaping markets. He argues that zero interest rates are "not off the table" — and that the probability is far higher than the market is pricing. He sees labor market deterioration happening quietly under the surface, warning that "the less visible it is, the worse it's probably going to be" because policymakers won't act until it's too late. Unlike the consensus worried about inflation, Alex is firmly in the deflation camp, though he notes any deflation can be countered by fiscal stimulus — he just doesn't think the government will act aggressively enough given how burned they were by the post-COVID inflation. He also discusses his newly released second edition of "The Next Perfect Trade," explaining why he kept the original text intact to maintain intellectual honesty about what worked and what didn't over the past decade. He declares the 40-year bond bull market "definitively over," shares his framework on carry as an underappreciated edge, and offers a fascinating take on AI's future energy demands potentially exceeding the output of the sun.Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Next-Perfect-Trade-Magic-Necessity/dp/1544550014/X: https://x.com/agurevich23Website: https://honteinv.com/0:00 Welcome and congratulations on the second edition1:19 The Next Perfect Trade — second edition out now 2:01 Setting the table: The macro view today 3:30 All the fireworks have been in precious metals 4:08 Interest rates are "pinned in confusion" 4:45 Alex's view: Leaning toward zero rates 5:40 Labor market deterioration — the less visible, the worse it will be7:20 The behavior of rates during Fed cutting cycles 8:58 What zero rates would mean for the economy 9:36 The relationship between stocks, jobs, rates, and growth is broken 11:30 Could we have strong growth and weak jobs simultaneously? 13:13 Deflation, not inflation 14:10 The pendulum: Deflation, then too much stimulus, then inflation again15:25 Recency bias from COVID stimulus keeping government cautious16:02 Precious metals: What does the move signal? 18:41 Why the second edition? Intellectual honesty 20:29 Admitting mistakes: "It was arrogant of me" 23:12 Growth as a trader — recognizing your weaknesses 24:08 The one chart to rule them all — is the 40-year bond bull market over? 25:41 Bull markets break up before they break down 27:19 The 2020 bond breakout should have been a warning29:47 The underappreciated power of carry 32:04 Be the casino, not the gambler 33:30 The corporate borrowing rate indicator 36:27 Why the indicator broke down in 2021-23 38:26 Has the macro investing world changed? 39:52 The most underappreciated force in macro right now42:46 AI's energy demand will overwhelm all sources — even fusion45:18 Is energy the trade? 46:55 The perfect trade: Japan is getting interesting 48:40 Where to find Alex and parting thoughts

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, calling him "the only choice" and a "classic hawk" who won't be afraid to lecture Congress on the link between deficits and inflation — something no Fed chair has done in 30 years. Chris explains why Warsh will likely shrink the balance sheet while giving Trump one or two rate cuts, and predicts the nomination may actually keep Powell on the board through 2028 just to deprive Trump of another conservative seat. On markets, Chris sees a more boring year ahead after 2025's extraordinary run, with gold and silver due for a 10-15% correction — though the bull market isn't over. He notes that crypto platforms like Hyperliquid are now trading precious metals, signaling money flowing from crypto into the "shiny object that's moving most." Chris also warns that private equity is becoming a major risk, with one in five firms now illiquid or in default, representing hundreds of billions in potential bank losses.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome 1:09 Kevin Warsh nominated as Fed Chair — Chris's reaction 2:15 Warsh will have to build consensus on the FOMC 3:01 Warsh won't be afraid to link deficits and inflation 3:15 Will Warsh be more hawkish? 4:26 Warsh during the financial crisis — what to expect 5:25 The martyrdom of Jerome Powell: Yellen and Powell did too much6:04 Hard decisions the market won't like 6:15 A conservative Fed puts pressure back on Congress 7:21 Will Trump like Warsh lecturing on deficits? 7:49 Powell refusing to say if he'll stay as governor 9:32 Is staying on the board political? 10:32 What will Powell's legacy be? 12:09 The state of the Fed's balance sheet: Poor 13:21 Central banks should keep assets short — the Fed didn't 14:15 Powell's comments on the deficit being "unsustainable" 16:08 Markets: S&P briefly hit 7000 17:47 Credit-sensitive stocks under pressure, metals outperforming 18:41 Labor market and layoffs: Amazon, UPS, FedEx 19:19 Personnel costs and inflation 19:42 Gold to $5,600, silver to $110 — correction coming? 20:50 Crypto platforms now trading gold and silver 22:21 Central bank gold holdings now exceed foreign Treasury holdings24:26 Where Chris is putting his money 24:43 WGA 50 bank rankings preview 26:57 Private equity risk: 1 in 5 firms illiquid or in default 28:29 AI companies leveraged to their eyebrows 28:50 Viewer mail: Taking profits on Annaly?32:29 Parting thoughts: Earnings, Warsh, and what's ahead 34:47 Closing

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, breaks down why the Fed's decision to pause was both premature and political, arguing Powell is "committing policy errors to quietly dig at the administration." She explains why the Fed should have cut today — and why she believes we need 100 basis points of cuts given deteriorating labor market data that Powell is choosing to ignore. Danielle unpacks the DOJ subpoena drama, revealing that betting markets dropped Powell's odds of leaving by August from 90% to 60% after the charges, and she believes he's now "enjoying the cat and mouse" with Trump. She revisits her open letter calling for the FOMC to elect Chris Waller as chair, explains why Rick Rieder would be "inviting the fox into the hen house," and shares her bold prediction: unemployment will have a 6 handle within a year. Plus, she discusses the hidden stress signals in Buy Now Pay Later data and why gold is behaving like a "meme stock." Links: Danielle's open letter: https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/10/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-2/Danielle's open letter part 2: https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/22/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-ii-public/Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome 1:05 The Powell subpoena: Danielle's reaction 3:35 Betting markets: Powell leaving odds dropped 4:51 Powell is the cat, Trump is the mouse 5:54 Why Powell is being political by NOT cutting rates 6:35 How Powell moved the goalposts on rate probability 7:32 The contradiction: Integrity vs. ignoring the American people 8:33 Financial conditions are easy because of passive investing, not the Fed 9:19 The shutdown has affected data integrity 10:05 Outlook for the year: Rate cuts coming? 10:50 Conference Board labor differential — recession signal 12:06 Should he have cut today? Yes. We need 100 basis points of cuts12:52 Open Letter Part Two: Why the FOMC should have elected Chris Waller 15:03 Rick Rieder: Inviting the fox into the hen house? 16:34 Who will be the next Fed chair? 17:35 What we don't understand about Fed chair transitions 19:04 The questions reporters should have asked Powell 21:29 Hidden signal: Google searches for "file unemployment" keep rising22:28 Buy Now Pay Later for dental bills and utilities — the stress is real25:41 Gen Z risk appetite and the environment that shapes investors 26:45 Gold is a meme now 29:01 DoubleLine roundtable: Long utilities, short financials 31:14 Commercial real estate capitulation and bankruptcies 32:14 Bold prediction: Unemployment will have a 6 handle by next year33:20 Parting thoughts: Don't forget about your neighbors 33:45 Closing

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's Davos speech, noting that despite promises on housing affordability, the administration has no real plan to lower prices — and Trump explicitly said he doesn't want home prices to fall. Chris explains why that won't matter: hot markets like San Diego and Florida are already cooling, and he predicts a significant correction by 2028 that could push prices back to 2020-21 levels, leaving every mortgage made since COVID underwater. He warns that Trump will "run the economy hot" to win the midterms, with consequences to pay afterward. On rates, Chris explains why long-term yields keep rising despite Fed cuts and what happens if a new Fed chairman loses an FOMC vote. He also discusses gold's march toward $5,000, calling it "the return of gold" as central banks worldwide reverse 70 years of policy, and weighs in on the FDIC's approval of Ford and GM to establish deposit-taking banks.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira802Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and intro 0:50 Trump at Davos: Greenland walkback and housing 2:55 The two sides of housing: Owners vs. buyers 4:00 401(k) withdrawals for down payments — does it help? 5:00 Why stoking demand pushes prices higher 6:17 Hot markets cool first: San Diego, Florida, Carolinas 7:58 Demographics and housing: Boomers vs. millennials 8:37 Rate cuts coming and the 2028 correction 9:35 What happens if prices fall 20%? Every post-COVID loan underwater10:10 Signs to watch for a broader market shift in 2026 12:36 Why long-term rates rise when the Fed cuts 14:15 How lenders are feeling right now 15:14 Gold closing in on $5,000 16:28 Trump will run the economy hot for the midterms 18:05 You pay for it after the election 18:51 What if the new Fed chair loses an FOMC vote? 21:00 What should the Fed actually be doing? 22:45 The asymmetry of gold and silver investments 26:32 The return of gold: Central banks reverse 70 years of policy 27:06 Peter Schiff's crisis call — does Chris buy it? 28:36 FDIC approves Ford and GM banks — what it means 32:46 Viewer mail: Gold as a hedge for real estate 33:45 Viewer mail: Stable coins debate 35:30 Closing

In this special in-person interview, Jim Rickards breaks down why the Trump administration is far more strategic than the media portrays, explaining the "flood the zone" tactic and Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" approach to bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio. Jim dismantles the popular "debasement trade" narrative, revealing that foreign central banks are not dumping Treasuries and that the real risk lies in the Eurodollar market and the $1 quadrillion derivatives system underpinning global finance. He warns that stablecoins are quietly hoarding Treasury bills needed for collateral — and the risk of fraud waiting to blow up. On gold, Jim explains why $5,000 is just the beginning, making the case for $10,000 to $25,000 based on historical precedent from the 1970s when the dollar lost 94% of its value measured in gold. He also offers a bold prediction: the potential breakup of NATO as geopolitical alliances fracture under pressure.More about Rickards: Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy, and his newest book MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links:  http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://x.com/RealJimRickardsTimestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:33 Why the second Trump term is different from the first 5:25 The Heritage Foundation and Project 2025 6:45 Executive orders and legislative wins 8:20 Federal courts and the Supreme Court battles 9:49 The economy: Is it really chaos? 11:32 The national debt: Why $39 trillion isn't the number to watch 13:45 The debt-to-GDP ratio explained 15:30 The Keynesian multiplier and diminishing returns 17:38 How we fixed the debt ratio after WWII (1945-1980) 18:36 Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" strategy 19:19 The debasement trade: Why it's a false narrative 21:15 Are foreign central banks dumping Treasuries? (No) 23:15 What triggers a financial panic 24:45 How the Fed actually "prints money" 26:30 The Eurodollar market: Where real money comes from 28:00 The $1 quadrillion derivatives market 30:15 Stablecoins: The hidden risk in crypto 33:24 Tether's commercial paper problem 35:37 Gold: Why it's really moving 37:45 The Russian asset freeze and its unintended consequences 42:26 Gold does well in deflation too 45:48 The first Pentagon financial war game (2009) 49:54 Gold's trajectory: $10,000 to $25,000 or higher 51:45 The 1970s: When gold went up 2,700% 55:30 Anchoring bias and why $1,000 jumps get easier 56:33 Jim Rogers on the 50% retracement rule 58:49 Silver: Precious metal meets industrial input 63:21 Bold prediction: The potential breakup of NATO 67:34 Parting thoughts: True diversification

In this wide-ranging conversation, natural resource investor Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, shares his macro outlook, warning that the global economy is weaker than most believe. He explains why he sold 80% of his physical silver after its run from $20 to $75 — and redeployed half into silver mining equities where he sees better leverage if prices hold. Rick breaks down the stark math behind America's $160 trillion in combined liabilities versus $167 trillion in total private net worth, arguing that a "dishonest default" through inflation is inevitable. He shares his framework for knowing when to sell, discusses the coming AI disruption to white-collar jobs, offers his candid views on the Fed and taxation, and provides an update on Battle Bank's national rollout after a 54-month regulatory journey.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaTimestamps:0:00 Welcome back Rick Rule0:47 Macro outlook: Global economy weaker than people think 3:19 Precious metals are "absolutely screaming" 4:14 Silver update: The coiled spring has sprung 5:16 What's driving the gold price 6:40 US debt: $160 trillion in liabilities vs $167 trillion net worth 9:48 Honest default vs dishonest default 11:00 Why CPI understates real inflation 13:22 What would fix this? (Hint: Nothing politically viable) 15:29 Where could gold go from here 16:37 Warning: Expect 30-50% drawdowns in this bull market 18:23 Is gold and silver still contrarian? 19:16 Why Rick sold 80% of his physical silver 20:47 Redeploying into silver mining equities 21:57 Rick's investment memo framework 24:00 Silver equities: The leverage opportunity 26:44 Wealth taxes and the nature of taxation 29:52 The New York City socialist experiment 33:35 How we fixed it in the 1970s — five lessons 37:34 Innovation as the way out 38:36 "Take care of yourself — society won't be able to" 42:29 Thoughts on the Federal Reserve 44:45 What would free market interest rates look like 46:56 Signs the economy is deteriorating 49:53 AI and the coming white-collar disruption 54:09 AI: "Greatest memory, no common sense" 55:09 Battle Bank update 58:08 Closing

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." In this episode of The Wrap, Whalen breaks down why GSE release is officially off the table after Trump ordered them to buy back their own debt—a move Whalen calls "politics" driven by midterm election fears. He shares his take on crypto as "a polite form of gambling," explains why he prefers gold over silver despite silver's recent run, and dives deep into the housing market's affordability crisis. Whalen reveals his biggest concern for 2026: the hidden risks in private equity and credit, calling them "rancid pools of illiquid, opaque assets" that could cause major bank losses. He also weighs in on the DOJ's subpoena of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, predicting Kevin Warsh will likely be the next Fed chair, and closes with his outlook on markets, the dollar, and bank stocks.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome back to the Wrap with Chris Whalen0:30 GSE release officially off the table?2:32 The $200 billion announcement is politics 4:08 Political landscape and midterm elections 4:49 Crypto legislation falls apart 5:14 Crypto as speculation vs. gold & silver 6:40 Silver's short squeeze and volatility 8:30 Gold vs. silver as long-term trades 9:07 Copper and Dr. Copper as economic indicator 10:10 Housing policy and affordability crisis 12:10 Will the Fed allow home prices to fall? 14:30 Bank earnings season takeaways 16:50 Consumer delinquencies and economic warning signs 18:12 The hidden risk in private equity and credit 19:48 The "POOP" problem in private lending 21:42 Private credit as a ticking time bomb 22:58 Jerome Powell's DOJ subpoena 24:21 Kevin Warsh and the future of the Fed 27:05 Could the Fed resume MBS purchases? 28:56 Viewer question: NLY/Annaly REIT 30:52 Parting thoughts and 2026 outlook 31:46 Closing

Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners and author of The Boock Report, sees "bells ringing" on the AI tech trade with Oracle, CoreWeave, and Nvidia showing tiredness, and warns the question is whether the baton can be passed to other sectors without the market falling apart. His three favorite groups for 2026 are energy (where $60 oil is "one of the cheapest assets in the world" and he sees $70+ minimum), agriculture (fertilizer stocks like Mosaic and Nutrient), and beaten-down consumer staples offering "bond-like dividend yields with equity-like upside." On Venezuela, he disagrees with the oil-for-midterms thesis - it's really about stiff-arming China, Russia, and Iran, and won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years anyway. He's been trimming silver after its vertical move toward $100 but still likes gold driven by central bank buying and dollar diversification. His biggest concern: if we lose the AI trade, its dominance is so large it could take everything down with it.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvarTimestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Boockvar01:18 2025 retro: World markets did really well, fire lit under international markets03:15 Bells ringing on AI tech trade - Oracle, CoreWeave, Nvidia tiredness05:45 China competition in AI - models more applicable, monetizing faster06:30 Bifurcated economy: Manufacturing recession, lower-middle income spending weak07:45 Data center build out - question of when not if it slows08:30 Delta earnings: Premium cabin strong, main cabin no growth09:15 Europe bifurcated too: Germany/France struggling, Spain/Greece doing well11:36 Three favorite groups for 2026: Energy, ag, consumer staples12:15 Energy: Bearish sentiment extreme, contrarian setup, CFTC net longs at 15-year lows13:30 Venezuela: 5-10 years before notable production increase14:15 OPEC production lagging quotas - most running at full capacity15:00 US shale production slowing, rolling over even in Permian15:45 Peak oil demand pushed out - hybrids winning, EV demand delayed16:30 Ag: Fertilizer stocks - Mosaic, Nutrient - down and out value plays17:15 Consumer staples destroyed over 12 months - deep value now17:52 Names: Kimberly Clark, Nestle, Pepsi, ConAgra, Coke, Reynolds18:24 Oil at $60 is one of the cheapest assets in the world - sees $70 minimum19:15 Energy holdings: Exxon, BP, Shell, Canadian Natural Resources, Oxy, Noble, EQT23:44 Venezuela won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years - focused on near-term25:32 Inflation: Conflicting dynamics - services decelerating, goods inflation returning27:00 Next Fed chair will have inflation dilemma - sticky around 3%28:45 Services inflation could rebound in back half of 2026 as apartment supply absorbed29:01 Reaction to Powell subpoena30:09 Powell is done cutting - will be playing 18 holes in June31:28 Last Fed cut was not necessary - took neutral rate below 1%32:30 Need low and stable prices first, then labor market improves35:34 Gold north of $4,600 - levels don't surprise, maybe pace did36:27 Silver at $92 - trimming position, tree needs to take a breather37:30 Gold thesis: Central bank buying, dollar diversification has more legs38:49 2025 lesson: World woke up to opportunities outside mag seven40:22 What not to own: Mag seven, long duration bonds40:46 Japan matters for global rates - JGB yields rising, canary in coal mine42:00 Bullish emerging market local currency bonds - better finances, cheap currencies42:57 EM names: China, Malaysia, Singapore, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Indonesia43:45 Biggest risk: Losing AI trade and gap up in long-term rates44:24 Optimism: Broadening out continues, international markets, commodity trade has legs45:03 Parting thoughts: Investors need to be flexible in their thinking

Jim Rogers, who has sold all his US shares, warns that the American market has been going up longer than ever in history and when people say "it's different this time," you should look out the window and ask questions. While he doesn't think we're in a bubble yet, he sees bubble characteristics forming and is watching for signs to start shorting - like kids leaving college for the stock market and everyone talking about their investments. Rogers is deeply concerned about the $38.6 trillion in balance sheet debt plus over $200 trillion in off-balance sheet obligations, noting that historically this has always led to big problems. He still owns gold and silver but isn't buying at all-time highs, holds positions in China and Uzbekistan, and says he's "not happy" about the US capturing Venezuela's president - calling it "not normal" and "not defensible on the international stage." His stark conclusion: "It's a good time to be an old American. Young Americans are going to have lots of problems in their lifetime."This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia00:00 Intro and welcome Jim Rogers01:28 US economy and market going up longest in American history - sold all US shares02:06 Has the US performance surprised you?02:53 What questions should we be asking right now?02:58 When should I start selling short? Exuberance setting us up for a top03:41 Still owns shares in Uzbekistan and China - assessing China after recent run04:12 Is the US in a bubble? Not yet, but beginning to have bubble characteristics05:31 Worst crisis in our lifetime still coming - debt is unbelievable07:55 Fed Chair Powell DOJ subpoena11:00 US debt highest in history of the world, Fed printing huge amounts of money13:12 Gold and silver performance - owns both, not selling, will buy more if they go down15:34 Room to run in precious metals? Debt skyrocketing, money printing everywhere16:36 What signs would make you short? 17:27 America losing financial wherewithal 19:44 Portfolio: Watching China go straight up, watching Uzbekistan, not adding21:30 Venezuela22:53 Nearly every stock market in the world making new highs - time to ask questions24:56 Greatest strength and weakness as investor? 25:57 Biggest mistake? 27:46 Parting thoughts

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." In this episode, Whalen calls Trump's $200 billion mortgage bond buyback idea "idiotic" and says institutional investors aren't the problem with housing - the Fed buying 30-year mortgages and driving up home prices 50% in five years was the real culprit. He explains the Fed has been "operating like a hedge fund" with dangerous variable duration securities that won't pay off for over 10 years. On Venezuela, Whalen says it should have happened long ago - the Iranians had offensive missiles there that could strike the US, and he's astounded previous administrations tolerated it. He warns AI hype is now a systemic risk to tech valuations, with Oracle's Larry Ellison risking his company to chase the crowd, and predicts 2025's "magical year with no apparent cost for risk" is ending as banks prepare for consumer credit deterioration in 2026-27.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira796Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen00:48 Non-farm payrolls report - weakness supports those saying economy is weak01:46 Rate cuts likely this year on short end, but long-term rates not coming down02:45 Trump's $200 billion mortgage bond idea - Chris calls it "idiotic"07:25 Housing correction already building in weaker markets08:24 Institutional investors not the problem - Fed buying 30-year mortgages was the problem12:04 What would actually help housing? Build more houses, change zoning13:04 NYC 18:16 Venezuela should have happened long ago24:49 AI hype now a systemic risk to tech valuations?27:06 Buying cheap financials - Flagstar below book, knows the team28:39 2025 magical year with no apparent cost for risk - that's changing30:05 Bank earnings next week30:35 Viewer question: Deregulation impact on banks and real estate32:53 Viewer question: If correction coming, wouldn't metals also fall?34:52 Wrap up and parting thoughts

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, argues the world changed forever after the US captured Maduro on January 3 in "Operation Absolute Resolve" - the first time in 100 years a country took out another head of state without consent. He explains this signals the death of the rule-based international order, making gold extremely bullish as countries can no longer trust the dollar system. Woo's key trades for 2026: short oil (December contract heading to high 40s/low 50s) as Trump needs to win the affordability argument for midterms, and he gives 65% odds of a massive $2,000 tariff rebate stimulus package. He admits getting gold completely wrong last year (up 60%) but remains bullish, warns the K-shaped economy consensus is about to be upended if lower oil and stimulus help the bottom 80%, and identifies the AI bubble bursting as the biggest risk - with Microsoft's January 28 earnings as a crucial date.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaWoo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).Links:  Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DavidwoounboundTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome David Woo01:28 Macro picture - don't fight Trump 02:31 Midterm election is the biggest story of 202605:17 Affordability argument - Venezuela about oil - not democracy, not drugs12:45 Tariff rebate? 65% chance of massive fiscal stimulus before midterms16:10 Don't fight Trump - theme of 202616:35 Gold was up 60% - the ultimate Trump trade of 202517:15 Short oil is the ultimate Trump trade of 202619:03 K-shape economy consensus about to be upended20:43 What David got wrong on gold last year26:17 The world is not the same - Venezuela changes everything31:45 US tech lead over China shrinking from 2-3 years to 6 months33:54 Knock-on effects: Bearish emerging markets, bullish defense, bullish gold38:57 OPEC biggest loser - lost Venezuela, may lose Iran42:04 TACO or FAFO? 44:44 Why does stock market matter to Trump?49:34 Biggest risk for 2026: Bursting of AI bubble52:10 Retail buy-the-dip crowd - most powerful force in markets54:14 Wrap up and where to find David Woo