The Julia La Roche Show

Peter Grandich delivers his most bearish outlook in a 40+ year career, predicting 2026-2027 could be the most challenging years in 50 years due to mounting debt ($38T heading to $50T), political division worse than any time since the Civil War, and a deteriorating middle class hanging by its fingernails. He explains why this was his best five-year period after moving entirely into gold and precious metals in 2021, with price targets of $5,000 for gold and $100 for silver still ahead. He warns we're in the earliest stages of becoming a banana republic as BRICS launches a gold-backed trading unit and de-dollarization accelerates.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: https://x.com/PeterGrandichhttps://petergrandich.com/https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Grandich01:17 Macro view - not a lot of positive things to say09:47 Best year in five years - gold and precious metals trade13:52 Oil prediction: $50 before $15015:12 Deteriorating middle class hanging by fingernails21:41 Most concerned he's ever been in 40+ year career23:01 Trump's trade war mistakes 28:21 De-dollarization and dollars coming back to US30:18 Solutions: Return to moral compass and faith35:48 Wealth preservation vs appreciation for investors41:31 Passive investing 45:12 The 12 factors of why party like 1929 will bite back47:58 Biblical wisdom on debt and finances49:19 Parting thoughts

Carol Roth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and two-time New York Times best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche again for episode 321. Carol delivers a sobering assessment of America's broken fiscal foundation with debt-to-GDP over 120%, explaining why the K-shaped economy is creating a non-merit-based divide driven by policy and the administrative class wealth transfer. She discusses the wealth paradox - despite abundance, Americans are more stressed than ever due to housing, education, and healthcare costs - and predicts inflation will be the release valve for our debt crisis. Roth shares her bullish thesis on gold and precious metals as central banks shift away from US Treasuries, explains why the Fed's tools are now irrelevant in this fiscal dominance era, and reveals her predictions for 2026 including decoupling from European allies, Fed chaos, and wild out-of-the-box policies. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:  You Will Own Nothing: https://www.carolroth.com/nothing/ Follow Carol Roth on X: https://x.com/caroljsrothTimestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome Carol Roth00:57 Big picture macro view: Broken fiscal foundation04:07 K-shaped economy debate and wealth paradox11:46 Administrative class wealth transfer problem18:33 Is Trump going to fix the broken fiscal foundation?24:37 Do rate cuts help everyday Americans?30:51 Gold as hedge and insurance policy37:50 "You Will Own Nothing" - what's changed since 202345:33 Predictions for 202648:58 Wrap up and where to find Carol

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." In this episode, Chris Whalen breaks down why Kevin Hassett may have blown his chances for Fed Chair by walking back Trump's views, discusses Kevin Warsh as the emerging frontrunner, and explains his reform proposal to return to a decentralized Fed with 15 district banks focused solely on sound money. He reveals why Trump's rhetoric about interest rates is backfiring (pushing the 10-year UP instead of down), predicts a home price correction in 2027-28, and explains why 3% inflation is now the new target. Whalen also discusses why gold and silver are still in early innings, how commercial real estate pain is being quietly resolved in the background, why good bank numbers mask concerning private credit risks, and answers a viewer question about BOJ rate hikes potentially triggering a broader correction.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   https://international-economy.com/TIE_Su25_Whalen.pdfTimestamps:00:00 Welcome Chris Whalen01:10 Kevin Hassett: Did he blow his chances for Fed Chair?03:38 Reforming the Fed: Decentralized model vs FDR's changes04:11 How decentralization would change Fed policy06:08 Fed must be independent of President, not Congress07:44 Post-1935 power concentration with Fed Chair08:11 How centralization distorted monetary policy09:17 Has the Fed been acting like its own hedge fund?10:30 Home price correction coming in 2027-2811:14 Subscribe reminder11:52 Trump's rate talk pushing yields UP not down12:56 Advice to Trump: Talk about growth and jobs, not rates14:09 Kevin Warsh as emerging frontrunner for Fed Chair15:17 Scrap the dual mandate, focus on sound currency16:41 CPI print this week: 3% is the new target17:23 Raising conforming limits encourages more inflation18:42 Gold, sound money, and what Treasury should do20:14 Is sound money viable?21:33 Roosevelt's New Deal legacy and today's problems22:53 Silver all-time high, gold north of $4,300 - still early innings24:22 Commercial real estate pain and which banks are exposed27:10 Private credit, NDFIs and why good bank numbers are concerning29:37 Inflation driving everything in New York and beyond30:22 Viewer question: BOJ rate hikes and impact on risk assets31:44 Wrap up, year-end predictions preview and where to find Chris

Peter Schiff delivers a stark warning: America is headed for the biggest economic crisis of our lifetimes - not a stock market crash, but a dollar collapse leading to an inflationary depression. He explains why gold hitting $4,300 and silver above $66 are screaming signals of an impending currency crisis, responds to Trump's personal attack calling him a "jerk" and "loser" on Truth Social, and breaks down why both Trump and Biden caused the inflation crisis through massive deficit spending and Fed money printing. Schiff reveals why he's positioned his portfolio for a dollar crash (up 60-120% this year in precious metals), predicts a radical left Democrat will win in 2028, and explains the dark reality: Americans will experience a poor country's economy but with higher prices - unless they protect their wealth now with gold, silver, and foreign assets.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:https://x.com/PeterSchiffEuropac.comhttp://SchiffGold.comTimestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Schiff01:19 Big picture macro view: America's bleak outlook04:00 Gold and silver screaming currency crisis is coming07:04 Prediction: Radical left Democrat in White House 202808:39 Peter's reaction to Trump's Truth Social attack10:19 Trump's ridiculous claim that prices are coming down11:37 Biden and Trump both caused inflation crisis13:40 Trump's "big beautiful bill" making deficits worse15:00 Republicans in trouble for 2026 midterms16:28 Trump is not a real conservative or capitalist22:12 Affordability crisis and government spending problem23:33 No politically viable way to right the ship25:00 We need higher interest rates, not lower27:28 Gold up 65%, silver up 120% this year28:30 Why "perma bear" label is wrong30:00 The dollar crash Peter has been predicting32:22 Investors moving money overseas from US stocks34:02 How gold skyrocketing pulls rug from under dollar36:08 Dollar reserve currency status ending38:22 Inflationary depression: weak economy, high inflation44:31 How everyday Americans will be impacted47:09 Early innings for gold and silver53:41 What Peter wishes he said on Tucker56:20 Capitalism blamed for socialism's damage57:59 Wrap up and appreciation

Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 318 to break down his viral three-part series on America's real poverty line, revealing why families making $100,000-$140,000 are trapped in what he calls the "valley of death" - where government benefits are withdrawn before cash earnings can replace them. He explains how childcare costs, benefit cliffs, and tax code changes since the 1950s have made the American Dream nearly impossible for young families, why economists reacted so negatively to his work, and how the official poverty line ($31,200) is completely disconnected from reality. Green also discusses the implications for markets, predicting a 1929-style crash from passive investing flows, and shares what gives him hope: human potential and the power of free people over slaves.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:Follow Mike on X: https://twitter.com/profplum99Read Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/Timestamps00:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green01:00 Genesis of the viral poverty line series and why the American Dream is breaking down05:25 The Valley of Death and the benefit cliffs 06:21 The working poor 07:50 Childcare 09:10 $100,000 used to mean something different12:10 The precarity line13:10 How we got here: tax code changes and the gaslighting about taxes and the 1%16:30 What's the solution?18:01 Implications of fixing the problem21:40 Why economists reacted so viscerally24:18 Sentiment analysis 26:35 Revealing what academics have been missing28:34 The affordability crisis vs inflation debate31:35 We need a different framework for poverty32:47 Where this is headed if nothing changes34:45 Political implications 39:09 What Mike plans to do about it40:35 Markets and passive investing momentum46:41 Wrap up and where to find Mike Green

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down the latest FOMC meeting, revealing a divided Fed with no clear consensus on future rate cuts. He predicts a home price correction coming and also warns of a brewing crisis in private equity, where 15-20% of companies are insolvent and relying on payment-in-kind structures. Whalen also discusses JPMorgan's surprise expense guidance this week, the Fed's Reserve Management Purchases (and whether it's QE by another name), and explains why the commercial real estate market remains a major risk. He expects higher bank earnings next year despite hidden dangers in lending to non-depository financial institutions, and shares his skeptical view on stablecoins and AI infrastructure spending.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen00:49 FOMC meeting recap04:03 Inflation as the #1 issue for Americans05:13 Home price correction coming06:03 Commercial real estate crisis deepening07:25 Fed's Reserve Management Purchases explained09:22 Fed managing liquidity into year-end11:35 JPMorgan's surprise expense guidance14:33 NDFIs: Lending reminiscent of 1920s practices15:45 Private equity insolvency crisis? (15-20% insolvent)16:51 Deflationary risk from forced asset sales22:45 Private credit hidden risk23:53 2026 outlook24:24 Ginnie Mae vs Fannie/Freddie liquidity problem26:28 Do stablecoins make sense?27:56 Oracle CDS spiking and AI infrastructure spending30:27 Viewer question: Fed control over mortgage rates33:33 Viewer question: Manufacturing renaissance under Trump?34:57 Viewer question: Are 10-year treasuries a good investment now?36:16 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for an in-person episode to discuss her outlook for housing and why we could see a price correction of 38%. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melodyX: https://x.com/m3_melodySubstack: https://m3melody.substack.com/Timestamps0:00 - Introduction: Melody Wright joins the show 00:44 - Housing market frozen for three years - lowest sales since 19952:12 - Institutions are net selling and preparing for what's coming 3:16 - The middle class squeezed out of housing market 4:11 - Debunking the "structural housing shortage" myth 6:12 - Regional housing story: What Zillow data reveals 8:03 - Who's running for the exits first: Institutions vs Mom & Pop 9:17 - Home prices going negative for first time in 2+ years 10:20 - 38% correction coming - when housing becomes affordable again11:56 - Why Fed rate cuts won't help housing 14:04 - The China parallel: Over-building and empty inventory 16:48 - Demographics: The silver tsunami and vacant homes 18:15 - Timeline: When foreclosures will materially increase 21:04 - FHA program shutdown and masking delinquencies 23:48 - Why this crisis is worse than 2008 for millennials 24:50 - What Melody changed her mind on about housing 26:04 - The #1 thing people are getting wrong about housing 27:48 - National Association of REALTORS responds to Melody 28:52 - What keeps Melody up at night 30:00 - What a healthy housing market looks like 31:45 - Final advice: Say no to debt slavery and wait

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche to break down the FOMC and discuss her open letter manifesto to the committee written on behalf of every hard-working American. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:    Danielle's open letter: https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/10/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-2/Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Danielle 00:33 Reaction to FOMC 01:36 QE? 02:40 Markets are overreacting 02:59 Danielle's open letter to The Federal Open Market Committee06:57 Kevin Hassett 08:45 How to preserve Fed independence 09:20 Every Hardworking American Who Wakes Up in the Morning Asking Themselves What Went Wrong10:42 The Fed's conflicting mandates 12:25 The unprecedented level of dissent 15:04 Powell was passionately against QE back in 201217:21 The Fed could exert its independence 18:50 Markets think it's QE, but is it? 20:09 Powell 21:29 Fed policy is eviscerating the middle class 25:10 Labor market dynamics 30:12 Biggest fear - civil war without honest monetary policy 32:45 Call to action

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down what's ahead for the Federal Reserve and financial markets as we head into 2026. He discusses Kevin Hassett as the likely next Fed Chair, explaining why Fed independence is more myth than reality and how political pressures will influence rate decisions ahead of the midterm elections. Whalen analyzes the upcoming FOMC meeting, commercial real estate risks, and why he's not concerned about an imminent market crisis despite ongoing concerns about the Treasury market and credit conditions. He also tackles why the Fed's 2% inflation target may be outdated and explains the K-shaped economy that has consumers and investors feeling divided about the recovery. Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen01:07 Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair pick?03:10 Fed independence and political dynamics05:00 Midterm elections and rate cut pressure09:28 FOMC meeting preview, Fed worried about being "late to the party"11:27 Importance of mortgage rates over fed funds15:18 State of the economy, no crisis coming 16:56 Bitcoin and crypto market discussion19:33 Commercial real estate reality check23:29 Private credit myths and reality25:00 Viewer question: Bank preferred stocks 26:50 Viewer question: Why the 2% inflation target?28:14 Inflation vs deflation in asset markets30:00 Biggest risks entering 202630:27 Surprise events and systemic risk31:21 K-shaped economy and recovery paths33:00 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

Hugh Hendry, "The Acid Capitalist," returns to the Julia La Roche Show. Hendry breaks down his "macro compass" portfolio framework: 25% equities (overweight Japanese stocks after their 35-year breakout), 25% US treasuries (buying TLT after a 50% decline), 25% alternatives (Bitcoin over gold due to market cap), and 25% strategic cash. His thesis: the treasury market is so large (100% of GDP) that it's prevented inflation despite massive deficit spending, but AI will cause 20% unemployment within 2-3 years. That unemployment will force governments into redistribution mode, finally breaking the system's ability to contain inflation. He discusses why tech valuations are near peak, why the yen carry trade matters, and why sterling may be the first major currency to collapse as the UK's service economy gets hit hardest by AI displacement.Hendry founded Eclectica Asset Management, a global macro hedge fund that was pretty much uncorrelated to everything in the financial universe. Hugh started Eclectica in 2002 and ran for 15 years before closing in 2017. He made more than 30% in 2008 betting against banks.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh Substack: https://hughhendry.substack.com/Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-acid-capitalist-podcast/id1511187978 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HughHendryOfficial00:00 - Intro00:52 - The macro compass: 4 quadrant portfolio framework03:52 - Quadrant 1: Equities & why Hugh loves Japanese stocks06:10 - Pattern recognition: Buying 35-year breakouts08:32 - Quadrant 2: US treasuries (TLT) after 50% collapse10:35 - The AI singularity & 20% unemployment prediction12:48 - Cheap labor is over: The end of the China era15:07 - Why corporations will shed jobs (but won't admit it yet)18:37 - Quadrant 3: Gold vs Bitcoin - market cap analysis22:03 - Why Hugh prefers Bitcoin over gold25:46 - The currency quadrant: Which currencies to hold28:15 - Why the dollar may weaken despite being "king"32:28 - Hugh's trade of the year: Yen carry unwind38:42 - The reflexivity problem: AI makes everything cheaper43:15 - Why we didn't get hyperinflation despite massive printing48:29 - The treasury market as a "fire gap" stopping inflation53:14 - Tech valuations: Are we in a bubble?58:36 - Why Hugh thinks we're near peak valuations1:02:44 - Why the treasury market stopped inflation (100% of GDP)1:04:31 - The chaos trigger: 20% unemployment will break everything1:05:00 - Youth unemployment & the rise of socialist politics1:06:23 - NYC mayor & the "no billionaires" movement1:07:06 - The UK disaster: Disability spending & currency collapse1:09:34 - Sterling as first currency casualty of AI

Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute and Austrian economist who correctly called the housing bubble, warns that we're living in an everything bubble with a flock of black swans ready to ignite a crisis. From commercial real estate cover-ups to private equity opacity, data center spending without defined returns, and trillions in government debt, Dr. Thornton explains how Fed manipulation and artificial interest rates have created malinvestments across the economy—and why Trump's push for lower rates will only fuel more bubble activity. He breaks down Austrian Business Cycle Theory, why we're on the on-ramp to hyperinflation with 2026 looking turbulent, and makes the case for gold and silver as essential hedges against fiat money depreciation in a world of central bank money printing and currency debasement.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinksX: https://x.com/DrMarkThorntonFree Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspxMises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thorntonTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Dr. Mark Thornton 01:09 Concerns about the macro economy 6:35 Fed manipulation creating vast array of potential swans 12:00 What if inflation ticks up? Long-term government debt and currency depreciation fears 14:50 Living through an everything bubble 18:40 Fed outlook22:30 Austrian Business Cycle Theory explained 28:30 Malinvestment and artificial credit expansion 34:50 Who really benefits from the Fed's policies? 44:50 Inflation to pay off the national debt 46:00 Gold and silver as hedges against fiat money depreciation 52:40 Early on in the precious metals bull market, silver going above $50 is 'the end of the beginning' 1:00:03 Path to hyperinflation 1:07:01 Bitcoin and Austrian School of Economics compatibility 1:10:31 Final thoughts and closing

Professor Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on 311. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaIn this episode, Professor Hanke warns that the Fed's decision to end quantitative tightening in December, combined with bank deregulation unlocking $2.6 trillion in lending capacity, could trigger dangerous money supply acceleration and reignite asset bubbles and inflation. He criticizes the Fed for "flying blind" by rejecting the quantity theory of money in favor of a volatile "data-dependent" approach. On recession, Professor Hanke sits "on the fence"—labor weakness justifies rate cuts, but money supply acceleration could prevent any slowdown. He maintains gold will reach $6,000 in this secular bull market.Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hankeMaking Money Work book: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/13942572600:00 - Intro and welcome back Professor Steve Hanke 1:20 - Big picture: money supply as fuel for the economy 3:30 - Fed ending quantitative tightening in December 6:00 - Yellow lights flashing: potential money supply acceleration, asset price inflation concerns and stock market bubble Fed 8:35 - Fed funds rate cut probability fluctuating wildly 9:36 - Quantity theory of money vs. data-dependent Fed 11:37 - Flying blind by ignoring money supply 21:30 - Making Money Work book discussion 26:15 - Gold consolidating around $4,000, why it's headed to $6,00029:24 - Recession probability: sitting on the fence 30:45 - Labor market weakness vs. money supply acceleration 32:12 - Why rate cut is justified based on labor market 33:13 - Closing

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 310. McDonald warns that a credit crisis has officially started with 16+ "idiosyncratic" events spreading tentacles across markets, while a big disruption is coming in Q1 as $6-8 trillion may leave the NASDAQ 100. But this creates an incredible opportunity for the cheap part of the market as the great rotation from growth to value begins, with coal and natural gas companies offering 15% free cash flow yields while tech giants burn cash in an AI arms race that's destroying their balance sheets. The market has internally crashed with the average S&P stock down 30-40%, but a handful of names are masking the carnage—and Larry reveals where the smart money is rotating.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMKTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/0:00 Intro: Welcome back Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report & author of "How to Listen When Markets Speak" 1:30 Credit bulls turning bearish 3:50 Credit most times leads equities7:12 When does 'idiosyncratic' become systemic? 9:32 Opportunities for great stock buys 13:30 Nvidia 15:03 Dark side of passive investing 20:40 Set up for an incredible rotation from growth to value 22:00 Update on the hard asset thesis, commodity bull market 23:20 AI power trade26:45 Banks buying Credit Default Swaps 29:20 A credit crisis has started 32:00 Parting thoughts

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down why markets are heading into a turbulent year-end. With the Treasury pulling $1 trillion out of the banking system and the Fed holding emergency meetings with dealers, a liquidity crunch is brewing just as big banks close their books after Thanksgiving. Chris explains why there won't be a December rate cut despite Fed happy talk, why the "silent crisis" in commercial real estate and private credit is spreading to insurance companies holding retail investors' annuities, and why public companies with Bitcoin exposure are about to report massive losses at year-end. Plus: the housing correction has officially begun as home price appreciation goes flat and GSEs start marking down property values. Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: Is it November 2018 All Over Again?: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira778Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Intro: Welcome back to The Wrap with Chris Whalen 0:41 No consensus for Fed cut in December2:22 Why John Williams' "happy talk" doesn't matter 4:35 Treasury is the gorilla: $1 trillion drained from markets4:58 Year-end liquidity crisis brewing 6:24 What that emergency Fed meeting was really all about8:40 Bitcoin's ugly fall14:45 Housing correction ahead? 27:04 What Chris Is Watching: Money markets and bank earnings 28:47 Commercial real estate & private credit pain 30:29 Where to find Chris and final thoughts

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche to break down the FOMC minutes. Danielle discusses the deep divisions within the Federal Reserve and their controversial decision-making heading into December. She argues the Fed is willfully ignoring abundant alternative data sources like ADP's weekly reports while claiming to fly blind without official jobs data—data that won't be released until after their December meeting due to administrative delays. Booth warns that if the Fed doesn't cut rates in December, they risk triggering a liquidity crisis similar to December 2018, when Powell's hawkish stance caused a market bloodbath on Christmas Eve and forced him to reverse course. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:    Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction & post-FOMC reaction0:27 - Deep divisions within the Federal Reserve1:47 - Fed's tone deafness on inflation concerns2:05 - Politics at the Federal Open Market Committee3:32 - Alternative data sources: ADP & jobless claims5:38 - The irony: administration's self-inflicted rate cut problem6:51 - ADP data: what Powell said vs. what the Fed does7:32 - Market reaction & Nvidia's impact8:13 - Should the Fed cut rates in December?9:39 - Powell's contacts: the willful blindness problem10:12 - Fed independence vs. politicization11:28 - The damage of playing politics with monetary policy13:51 - Treasury yields & market concerns17:38 - Debt servicing crisis & political implications26:54 - Private credit & private equity discussions27:30 - Liquidity crisis warning: emergency rate cut risk28:44 - Question for Powell?29:27 - Why an emergency cut may be necessary31:52 - Closing thoughts

Value investor Brian Hirschmann, managing partner of hedge fund Hirschmann Capital, warns we're in the most dangerous time in financial history with three unprecedented bubbles—equities, real estate, and bonds. Hirschmann sees gold doubling to $8,000+ in the coming crisis, but argues for significant upside in gold mining developers. He predicts the Fed will be trapped in a stagflation scenario, and warns the next crisis will be the mother of all financial crises.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Hirschmann Capital: https://www.hcapital.llc/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/HCapitalLLCTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Brian Hirschmann1:20 Macro picture, 3 bubbles bigger, most dangerous time in US financial history5:00 Era of bailouts is over, government debt at breaking point8:10 Are we past the point of no return?9:00 US debt at 120% of GDP, virtually all countries at this level defaulted15:55 Gold discussion: doubled since last appearance 18 months ago20:54 Gold could more than double to $8,500+ if crisis hits24:27 Gold miners vs gold: developers trading at 20% of intrinsic value30:36 Misconceptions about gold's rise: tariffs, Chinese central bank, ETFs34:04 Bitcoin39:33 Fed will be trapped, lose control of interest rates in stagflation scenario42:00 Lessons from David Swensen45:19 Closing remarks

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for the debut of his weekly segment "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Markets hit all-time highs this week before pulling back sharply as the Fed ended quantitative tightening amid growing liquidity stress in money markets—echoing the dangerous conditions of November 2018 when Chairman Powell nearly crashed the system. Whalen warns we're seeing the same warning signs: tightening liquidity, basis trades breaking down, and a Fed flying blind without proper tools to measure reserve availability. Meanwhile, cracks are appearing across markets—from Bitcoin's retreat below $100k to BlackRock's stunning 100% writedown on private debt it valued at par just weeks ago.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: Is it November 2018 All Over Again?: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira778Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 - Introduction: New weekly segment "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" 0:42 - Markets this week: biggest decline since April 2:34 - Treasury General Account and bank reserves 6:50 - December rate cut now 50-50 toss up 8:14 - Economy still bubbling along robustly 8:39 - If big sell-off, Fed will start QE again 10:40 - Is it November 2018 all over again? 14:38 - Are we setting up for another repo crisis? 17:27 - Bitcoin fell below $95,000 - what's it signaling? 20:50 - Gold discussion: most investors under-invested 24:44 - Private credit concerns 25:48 - Government shutdown resolution 28:29 - Mortgage markets and housing policy 30:00 - Closing remarks and what to watch next week

James Lavish, co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and author of The Informationist newsletter, joins Episode 305 of the Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Lavish explains how the government shutdown has locked nearly $1 trillion in the Treasury General Account, draining liquidity from financial systems and raising concerns about a 2019-style repo crisis as bank reserves fall to dangerous levels. He argues Americans have lost 25% of their purchasing power from 2020 to 2025, and while technology should bring deflation, we instead have persistent 3% inflation because it's necessary to manage $38 trillion in debt through currency debasement. Lavish explains the K-shaped economy where the top 1% gained 8X wealth since 1990 versus 4X for the bottom 50%, noting commercial real estate defaults are spiking and subprime auto lenders are collapsing. When the TGA liquidity eventually floods back into markets, he warns not to mistake it for prosperity—it's currency debasement, which is why he recommends positioning in hard assets like Bitcoin, gold, and real estate. The Fed is trapped between dual mandates with no way out, and while AI stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves risking a market shock, his message is clear: own assets because he's not bullish on the economy, he's bearish on the currency.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/ The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/ Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome1:20 - Big picture macro view: Fed battling dual mandates4:30 - Stagflation risk: prices rising as economy rolls over5:10 - Government shutdown removing liquidity from markets7:19 - Treasury General Account (TGA) explained14:21 - 2019 repo crisis explained21:31 - Current concerns about overnight lending market26:18 - Will Fed do QE again?29:03 - Credit markets29:07 - K-shaped economy explained37:08 - Position for currency deterioration38:28 - Why people think 2% inflation is normal40:11 - Lost 25% purchasing power from 2020 to 202540:41 - Technology should bring deflation, not inflation46:30 - Why we need inflation: $38 trillion debt problem50:59 - What's keeping James up at night55:27 - Closing remarks and contact information

Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 304. Ed Dowd argues we're already in a technical recession, with the stock market bubble driven by just seven stocks masking underlying economic weakness as housing rolls over, layoffs accelerate at Amazon and UPS, and credit markets tighten. He warns that insider selling is at unprecedented levels as institutions distribute to retail investors in classic "FOMO" behavior, while the equal-weighted S&P has gone nowhere since January. Dowd criticizes the Trump administration for gaslighting Americans about the economy instead of communicating the Biden hangover from illegal immigration and deficit spending, explains China is exporting deflation due to their real estate crisis and 20 years of excess housing inventory, and predicts a deflation scare with oil plummeting to $30 before the Fed intervenes with massive QE. He recommends raising cash and moving into treasuries like Warren Buffett, expects the dollar to rip as liquidity dries up globally, sees gold hitting $10,000 by 2030 as central banks accumulate it, and warns Bitcoin will go much lower as it's underperforming treasuries—an early warning indicator of the risk-off environment ahead.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaThis episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/ US Economy Outlook 2025: https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm?Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdwardTimestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome1:09 - Macro view5:00 - Credit markets tightening, distribution phase of stock market, Trump administration gaslighting about economy7:00 - China at a crossroads: real estate crisis going acute7:55 - China exporting deflation, depreciating the yuan9:00 - Tariffs are deflationary10:00 - Risk-off environment is coming11:00 - Dollar outlook 12:40 - Risk off environment: flight to safety into treasuries14:20 - Three Hindenburg omens: market breadth disaster15:00 - Gold discussion: long-term bullish, going to $10,000 by 203017:00 - AI bubble: momentum and administration fomenting it22:20 - Retail FOMO buying: sign of unhealthy market24:32 - Fed cutting but still behind the curve27:00 - Credit markets sniffing out deflation scare30:00 - 1970s stagflation period: inflation/deflation yo-yo30:37 - Oil going to $30: China internal consumption plummeted33:43 - Gaslighting about the economy: people feel the reality 35:30 - China facing crossroads and crisis starting in 2020 40:00 - Dollar liquidity issue: people scrambling for dollars 40:40 - Treasury Secretary Bessent can term out debt during recession 41:03 - Yellen front-loaded debt, significance of terming it out 42:30 - Immigration 48:40 - 100% probability we're in recession now 49:30 - How to be allocated: raise cash for flexibility 50:40 - Japan carry trade could blow up at any moment 52:00 - What makes Ed optimistic: asset prices will come down 54:07 - Where to find Ed's work and research

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns for an in-person conversation for episode 303. Whalen warns that stocks and crypto are slowing down as they run out of buyers, while real estate pain continues with older assets selling at discounts and more trouble ahead for private equity and private credit. He attributes Zohran Mamdani's NYC mayoral victory to inflation-driven affordability concerns, predicts a home price correction by 2027-28, and expects continued corporate exodus from New York City as long-term leases roll off. Whalen criticizes the Fed for pushing home prices up 50% since COVID and failing their mandate on price stability, discusses widespread fraud in private credit markets, and highlights Bank of America's duration risk mistakes compared to JPMorgan and Citi. He's currently focused on gold and junior mining stocks, explaining the "debasement trade" as central banks worldwide shift to gold as their primary reserve asset, while predicting crypto will "go bye-bye" and calling stablecoins a dead end.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaThis episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 - Welcome and introduction1:02 - Reaction to Mamdani election2:03 - Is this the product of inflation?2:10 - Inflation driving affordability issues, Fed's failure2:54 - Heading into correction in home prices by 2027-285:26 - How mortgage lenders set rates vs. bond market6:33 - Will we see a housing emergency declared?12:08 - Outlook for New York for next four years14:59 - Big picture view: stocks and crypto slowing down15:30 - Pain in real estate, private equity, and private credit20:37 - Duration risk story at banks27:47 - Will we get December rate cut?29:17 - Fed funds rate targeting piece32:49 - Chris's portfolio: taking acorns off the table35:59 - The debasement trade39:36 - Crypto going bye-bye, stable coins a dead end42:05 - Closing remarks