The Monday Call

As the third quarter draws to a close, we look back on the perspectives we shared at mid-year. We were right to remain confident: growth prospects for 2025 have continued to propel markets higher, and our outlook stays positive for the rest of the year.Many of the same drivers remain in play. In New Zealand, interest rates and dairy prices should eventually help pull the economy out of the doldrums, and the share market has already been trading stronger in the second half. Globally, despite the United States dominating headlines for geopolitical reasons, the economy remains resilient and share markets are reflecting that.So how should we think about positioning for continued headline-grabbing volatility while holding a constructive view on markets? Are there alternative assets we can invest in? And, remembering that while markets don’t repeat, they do rhyme, what can history teach us about what comes next? Mark Brooks, Chief Investment Officer at NZ Funds, joins us to discuss these questions as another wet New Zealand spring arrives in full bloom.

What happens when a leading Silicon Valley investor turns his focus to New Zealand? Rob Coneybeer, Co-Founder of Shasta Ventures, has backed global successes like Nest, Dollar Shave Club, Canva and Anaplan. Now he’s bringing that experience and perspective here, exploring how New Zealand can better attract talent, capital and opportunity.The new Active Investor Plus visa is opening doors for international investors and operators. But capital alone isn’t enough - real success depends on connecting people with the right skills, building strong networks, and creating supportive frameworks, including tax, to grow a thriving ecosystem.Join us as we explore why New Zealand is an attractive place to grow a business and how the country can strengthen its competitive edge, and learn about Kiwi companies pushing to make their mark globally. For business owners and investors alike, this is a valuable chance to hear directly from someone who has scaled world-class companies and understands what it takes on the global stage.

Diversification doesn’t mean what it used to. In a world where the old 60/40 equity-bond model is breaking down, investors must rethink how they construct portfolios. NZ Funds’ latest research shows how overlays in gold, copper, Bitcoin, and tail-risk hedging can reshape outcomes and boost returns while controlling systemic risk.This week, we'll take a dive inside NZ Funds' recent Portfolio Optimisation Paper. From gold’s role as a diversifier, to multi-asset overlays that incorporate Bitcoin, to Universa’s tail-risk strategies, they explore how modern portfolio construction goes beyond bonds to achieve resilience in uncertain times.Markets today demand more dynamic thinking. The data shows that with the right overlays, investors can earn higher compounded returns while keeping risks in check. Join James and Stephan as they break down the next evolution in portfolio optimisation._____The presentation referenced in this video can be downloaded here - www.nzfunds.co.nz/emailarticles/monday_call/NZ_Funds_Knowledge_Series--Portfolio_Optimisation_Paper_July_2025.pdf

“Anyone who says they are an AI expert is lying!” In a world of rapid technological change, developments move so fast that it’s difficult for anyone to keep up. How do we navigate the complexities of AI and learn about it? Understanding these forces is essential for investors, businesses, and individuals alike. Craig Fenton is the founder of Fenton Innovation, an agency specialising in AI-driven automation solutions. Previously CEO of New Zealand Rugby Commercial and before that a Google veteran where he led Strategy and Operations for its business in the UK, Craig’s technology journey began at consultancy Accenture where he served as a Partner for 16 years.“Having grown up in splendid isolation at the bottom of the world, pre-internet, everything we take for granted today is still like magic to me...” Join us for an exclusive session with a seasoned technology leader, entrepreneur, and investor.

Inflation might not seem like an everyday threat, but over time, it can significantly impact your financial well-being. As prices rise steadily, the value of your savings and income can diminish, making it more challenging to save, spend, and plan for the future.In this week's Monday Call, we’ll take a deep dive into the Inflation Category. NZ Funds uniquely offers a dedicated category specifically designed to fight inflation. These assets have the potential to grow earnings at a pace faster than inflation, helping preserve and even increase your purchasing power over time.It’s essential to think in terms of decades rather than just years when planning your financial future. Join us as we explore these innovative strategies— part of all NZ Funds’ diversified portfolios—and identify the key assets that can help safeguard your wealth against the long-term effects of inflation.Please download the presentation associated with this week's Monday Call by copying and pasting this link -- https://www.nzfunds.co.nz/emailarticles/monday_call/NZ_Funds_The_Monday_Call_Inflation_Category_Review_July_2025.pdf

What happens when the rules of value change? From the rise of blockchain to tokenised assets, a quiet revolution is reshaping everything from money to markets. As systems evolve, questions around trust, ownership and coordination matter more than ever for investors, institutions and governments navigating today’s fast-changing economic landscape.We’re joined on this Monday Call by Distinguished Professor Jason Potts, one of the world’s leading thinkers on institutional economics and innovation. Based at RMIT University in Melbourne, Jason leads the Blockchain Innovation Hub, is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia, and co-edits the Journal of Institutional Economics. His work spans blockchain, creative fields and economic change.We explore the future of value, the role of digital assets in society, how blockchain can support transparency and trust, and what it means for investors and policy makers in New Zealand and beyond. Whether you're crypto-curious, intrigued by changing property rights, or keen to understand the impact of decentralised tech, this session offers sharp insight into where the world is heading.

Global forces are driving significant structural changes to the economy, creating challenges and opportunities. While tariffs and geopolitical tensions add uncertainty, we remain confident about growth prospects for 2025. A key reason for this optimism is that the changes are neither purely tariff-related nor purely negative. Three positive changes are easing banking regulation, new Crypto regulations, and the AI compute cycle. We are particularly positive about New Zealand’s outlook, supported by strong global demand for dairy, lower interest rates, and attractive market valuations, making it an appealing investment destination for a patient investor in this evolving environment. Outside of the farming sector, the local economic recovery is slow to emerge but the signs show that there is an underlying recovery happening. In the United States, the current economic setup is proving more robust than expected and this is supporting market performance. Equally, Europe and China have overdelivered relative to the downbeat sentiment. While tariff-related disruptions and corporate caution may temper growth, we believe corporate earnings will remain resilient. Overall, we see continued opportunities despite these structural shifts. This week, Mark Brooks, Chief Investment Officer at NZ Funds, joins us to review the first half of 2025 and discuss what might lie ahead for the remainder of the year.

New Zealand’s tech sector has produced major success stories, and Rowan Simpson has been behind many of them. As a founding team member of Trade Me and Xero, and an investor in firms like Vend and Timely, Rowan has helped shape a generation of Kiwi innovation. He shares the lessons learned in his new book, How to Be Wrong – A Crash Course in Start Up Success. Rowan was Trade Me’s third employee and helped grow it into a national icon. He then became a pre-IPO investor and executive at Xero, now one of New Zealand’s most successful global tech companies with millions of subscribers. These experiences gave him firsthand insight into the messy reality of scaling a business. Rowan joins us this week to discuss the mindset behind his success, share stories from the front lines, and inspire founders and business owners. From choosing the right team to scaling with confidence, Rowan brings a unique blend of optimism and clarity. If you are involved in building a business – or backing someone who is – this is a must-listen episode.

Economic and political tides are shifting. Australia’s new government is tackling low growth and rising fiscal pressure head-on, as New Zealand tries to ignite a sluggish economy. Meanwhile, trade tensions keep challenging global stability but also open new doors for business. This week we’re joined by Professor Richard Holden, Chief Economist at CA ANZ and one of Australasia’s strongest economic voices. A UNSW Professor, Harvard PhD, and Member of the Order of Australia, Richard is known for his bold views on how policy, geopolitics and markets are shaping our region’s future. For investors, business owners and advisers, these shifts matter. What new opportunities will emerge? Which sectors will face headwinds or tailwinds? And how can business seize growth in an uncertain but promising landscape? Join us on the Monday Call to hear Professor Holden’s insights.

The last three months have been packed with headlines and market moves: shares dropped sharply before bouncing back, Bitcoin hit new highs, and government fiscal positions – including New Zealand’s Budget – came into focus. While volatility may remain elevated, we continue to have confidence in the long-term outlook. What sparked the sharp market swings and the strong rebound? How did NZ Funds adjust its client portfolios, and where are they positioned now? Why is Bitcoin on such a tear, and what impact will the Budget have for investors in New Zealand?Mark Brooks, Chief Investment Officer at NZ Funds, joins us to unpack these questions and share expert insights. Enkoy this Monday Call to gain clarity and confidence about investing in today’s dynamic market environment.

Is property ownership still the Kiwi dream - or has it lost its sparkle? With interest rates falling, rents rising and prices stagnating, the housing market is full of unknowns. Add a surge in listings, and it’s no wonder Kiwis are wondering if the game has changed for good.On this Monday Call, we’re joined by Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at CoreLogic, to explore the latest data and what’s driving the market. We’ll discuss how macro factors and changing policies are shaping the future of property in New Zealand.Kelvin’s expertise in translating complex data into clear insights makes him a top authority on the subject. Whether you’re a homeowner, investor or just curious, you’ll gain valuable knowledge from this session.

Since the 2024 United States election, cryptocurrency has gained legitimacy as an asset class in the eyes of regulators. This shift has facilitated increased institutional adoption, trading, and advancements in technology surrounding digital currencies and payments that affect everyday transactions.This week, we are joined by Christopher Rhine, Galaxy Asset Management's liquid active crypto portfolio manager and emerging technology strategist. With over 20 years of investment experience, join us as Chris brings valuable insights into how investors are deploying capital into this rapidly evolving asset class.

It is an understatement to say that a lot has happened over the first two weeks of April. On this The Monday Call we discuss the motivation behind the Tariff announcement from the United States, our view of the last 10 days and scenarios for the path ahead.This session will cover:• the initial and subsequent tariff announcements• what tariffs could mean for the United States, New Zealand and global economies• how NZ Funds is positioning client portfolios• smart steps for longer-term investors to consider.Download the presentation here.((https://content.nzfunds.co.nz/emailarticles/monday_call/The_Monday_Call__NZ_Funds_Tariff_Discussion_April_2025.pdf))

Are New Zealand shares finally poised for a turnaround? Since the COVID lockdowns, the New Zealand share market has struggled, down 12%, while the United States market has surged 69%. With local shares lagging, is this the moment for a rebound?Mortgage rates have stabilised, consumer spending is on the rise, and farmers and exporters are back at the forefront. With valuations looking more attractive than ever, where are the biggest opportunities to capitalise on this shift?This week, Casey Keiper, Portfolio Manager at NZ Funds, joins James Grigor, Investment Strategist, to discuss the outlook for New Zealand shares and the factors driving the potential recovery. Join us to learn how NZ Funds, as an active manager, is positioning client portfolios to seize these emerging opportunities.

Less than a month ago, the S&P 500 hit a record high. Now it’s down 10%, sparking media headlines. But despite the drop, United States shares are still up over 8% in the past year. Market swings like this are normal, and not all global markets are reacting the same way. While Trump’s trade policies dominate the conversation, they’re just one piece of a bigger picture.This week, Mark Brooks, Chief Investment Officer at NZ Funds, joins James Grigor, Investment Strategist, to discuss these market swings. Is this a routine correction or something bigger? Are recession concerns justified, or is the noise drowning out the facts? With Trump touting economic strength while markets retrace, what’s the bigger risk – staying in or stepping out? And how can long-term investors use volatility to their advantage?

The global order is shifting with rising autocracies, evolving alliances, and rapid technological advancements redefining international stability, trade and security – presenting important questions about New Zealand’s geopolitical position and economic direction.Joining us from New York, Alex Grigor is an expert in international relations, cyberwarfare and AI. With over 20 years of experience, he has advised governments on foreign policy, co-authored AI and cybersecurity white papers, and worked as a geopolitical analyst, providing insights into the forces shaping our world.We examine the role of cyberwarfare and AI in modern geopolitics and the impact of shifting alliances, including the significance of Chinese warships in the Tasman Sea. We will also explore what these macro-developments mean for global stability and trade, and how investors in New Zealand can think about the evolving landscape.

The New Zealand economy is turning a corner, with green shoots replacing red flags and confidence inching its way back. But global uncertainty remains. Trade tensions are heating up, and tariff threats loom large.This week, top economist Cameron Bagrie joins us to discuss the outlook. Will the recovery move up a gear, or are the brakes about to be applied? Will our exports be hurt, or can we create new markets? And how should investors think about both risks and rewards in this shifting landscape?With over 20 years of experience – including a decade as ANZ’s Chief Economist – Cameron delivers sharp, independent insights through Bagrie Economics, a boutique firm known for its no-nonsense economic analysis.

In our first Monday Call for 2025, we welcome Mark Brooks, Chief Investment Officer at NZ Funds, to discuss the key themes shaping the investment landscape. Despite global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and major elections, 2024 ended on a strong note for markets. Now we look at what’s next. Markets enter 2025 with a mix of opportunities and challenges. The US remains a driving force, powered by its tech sector, but high valuations combined with high expectations and the Trump presidency add complexity. New Zealand’s share market, like many outside of the US, showed strength in late 2024, and while expectations remain modest, signs of improvement are emerging. What can investors expect in 2025? Will the downgrades seen in New Zealand turn to upgrades? Will new tariffs and geopolitical risks hinder growth? Why is the US so highly valued, and is this at risk? And where does Bitcoin fit in? Mark’s insights will equip investors with the knowledge to navigate the year ahead.

The global economy’s return to normality in 2024 fuelled the continuation of the bull market that began in 2022, delivering a record year for many markets. At the start of the year, the average forecaster predicted just a 3% increase in the United States stock market – yet markets surged far beyond those expectations. In this year-in-review podcast, we’ll unpack the key trends and insights. What worked for the Portfolios? What didn’t work as expected? We also explore a range of other themes, including the rise of AI, the return of Bitcoin, and why we believe 2025 will mark New Zealand’s own return to economic normality – a positive development for local markets.

Hugh Hendry is an award-winning hedge fund manager, investment thought leader, and surfer. He founded Eclectica in 2005, a London-based global macro fund known for its high-conviction, contrarian approach. Shortly after launching Eclectica, Hugh gained recognition with impressive returns of 50% in its second year and over 30% in 2008 during the height of the Global Financial Crisis. Although Eclectica has since closed, Hugh remains an active and influential market commentator. Reflecting his commitment to creative freedom in investing, he once said, “I have always been a heretic and argued against the consensus. I have always been angry.” Join us for a lively discussion with Hugh as we explore today’s investment landscape, hear his views on the U.S. election, his skepticism toward mainstream economic policies, and his belief in the value of reading broadly as a source of inspiration for business and investing.