The Monday Call

For our first Monday Call of the year, we report back from the Goldman Sachs Global Macro Conference Asia Pacific, a closed-door, highly anticipated Hong Kong event alongside some of the world’s leading investors. Mark and James join Stephan to offer perspectives from this investor gathering and provide a rare window into the flows of global capital.Those on-the-ground insights highlight why China and Hong Kong are reasserting themselves on the world stage. High-speed rail, rapid AI adoption, and large-scale infrastructure and manufacturing are advancing at a breathtaking pace, in stark contrast to slower build-outs and policy gridlock in the United States. The coordination of government, capital and technology is reshaping how investors view the region.Together, Mark, James and Stephan will explore infrastructure, AI and financial markets – and why China may be misunderstood and underestimated as a destination for capital and returns. The discussion examines why global investors are increasingly paying attention to the region, and whether the term ‘emerging markets’ remains fair given its extraordinary scale and sophistication.

Hear how client portfolios are positioned for events in Iran. Headlines and markets move fast. Stay informed with this special edition of the Monday Call.With missiles striking near his Dubai apartment, Paul De Klerk, veteran NZ Investment Adviser, joins Stephan for on-the-ground insights. James Grigor, Investment Strategist, who served in the region with the NZDF, discusses portfolio positioning.

Last year rewarded steadfast, diversified investors with solid returns. This year, the focus shifts to positioning for what’s next. Expectations are more grounded in reality, new sectors and regions are taking the lead and, in a world hooked on the next big headline, patience has quietly become a secret weapon.Although the news cycle will remain busy, the underlying picture is improving. Growth in the United States is broadening, China’s momentum is building, and AI is moving beyond hype into supporting a productivity leap. Right now, the groundwork is being laid for a more durable and rewarding phase in this market cycle.Join hosts James Grigor and Stephan Clark as they sit down with Michael Hanson, Senior Vice President of Research at Fisher Investments, for a straight-talking look at investing successfully in 2026. Based out of California, Fisher Investments manages over $600 billion globally and is one of a select group of managers NZ Funds partners with.

Are New Zealand shares finally poised for a turnaround? Since the COVID lockdowns, the New Zealand share market has struggled, down 12%, while the United States market has surged 69%. With local shares lagging, is this the moment for a rebound?Mortgage rates have stabilised, consumer spending is on the rise, and farmers and exporters are back at the forefront. With valuations looking more attractive than ever, where are the biggest opportunities to capitalise on this shift?This week, Casey Keiper, Portfolio Manager at NZ Funds, joins James Grigor, Investment Strategist, to discuss the outlook for New Zealand shares and the factors driving the potential recovery. Join us to learn how NZ Funds, as an active manager, is positioning client portfolios to seize these emerging opportunities.

In our first Monday Call for 2025, we welcome Mark Brooks, Chief Investment Officer at NZ Funds, to discuss the key themes shaping the investment landscape. Despite global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and major elections, 2024 ended on a strong note for markets. Now we look at what’s next. Markets enter 2025 with a mix of opportunities and challenges. The US remains a driving force, powered by its tech sector, but high valuations combined with high expectations and the Trump presidency add complexity. New Zealand’s share market, like many outside of the US, showed strength in late 2024, and while expectations remain modest, signs of improvement are emerging. What can investors expect in 2025? Will the downgrades seen in New Zealand turn to upgrades? Will new tariffs and geopolitical risks hinder growth? Why is the US so highly valued, and is this at risk? And where does Bitcoin fit in? Mark’s insights will equip investors with the knowledge to navigate the year ahead.

Join us as we look back on the key themes that shaped markets in 2025, and the opportunities emerging for investors in 2026. 2025 has been defined by a world moving at different speeds: slowing growth in some regions, pockets of resilience in others, and meaningful divergence across interest rates, inflation, and equity performance.The AI and data-centre investment cycle has continued to accelerate, while the energy transition and demand for critical minerals have reshaped capital flows and sector leadership. Equity markets have become increasingly dispersed, and volatility across regions and sectors has reinforced the importance of active positioning and the ability to adjust exposures as conditions evolve.Here in New Zealand, after a challenging period for households and businesses, we are now seeing genuine green shoots in falling inflation, stabilising interest rates, improving confidence, and early signs of a turnaround in corporate earnings. These factors are expected to support the New Zealand share market into 2026, especially given attractive valuations and a historically strong dividend profile.Against this backdrop, why does NZ Funds continue to believe a flexible, active, multi-asset investment approach is essential? We will explore these themes and more in the final Monday Call of the year.

Interest rates remain one of the most powerful forces shaping investment outcomes, and understanding the four phases of the interest-rate cycle (hiking, peak, cutting and the flat bottom) is key to navigating markets. Each phase affects share market performance and sector leadership in patterns that have repeated across multiple cycles.To help investors make the most of these opportunities, NZ Funds has developed the Interest Rate Investment Strategy (IRIS), a research-driven framework that guides sector positioning as the cycle moves. This week, we look at why the strategy was developed, how it is currently being implemented, and what it tells us about expected equity returns across New Zealand, Australia and the United States.In a world where interest-rate sensitivity creates both risks and opportunities, IRIS offers a clear, practical way to strengthen decision-making, build resilience, and stay positioned for what comes next. Join hosts James Grigor, Investment Strategist, Stephan Clark, Chief Client Officer, and special guest Charlie Astwick, Investment Analyst, as they share insights from NZ Funds’ latest research and discuss what the future path of interest rates may mean for investors.

The way investors build share portfolios is changing. With markets increasingly driven by a handful of big companies and traditional diversification offering less protection, it’s time to rethink how portfolios are structured. NZ Funds’ latest research explores two areas that can make a real difference. How equal-weighted portfolios compare with capitalisation-weighted portfolios, and how tail-risk protection can help reduce drawdowns while lifting long-term returns.This week, we’ll look at the findings from NZ Funds’ recently published Equal vs Capitalisation-Weighting and Downside Mitigation (Universa) white paper. From how regular rebalancing and broader share exposure can improve returns, to how downside protection strategies like Universa can buffer major market falls, the research shows practical ways to build stronger, more resilient portfolios.In a world of concentration risk and sharp market moves, both approaches aim to give investors better long-term results - higher compounding and steadier returns. Join hosts James and Stephan, together with NZ Funds CIO Mark Brooks, as they explore what this means for the next generation of portfolio design.

As the third quarter draws to a close, we look back on the perspectives we shared at mid-year. We were right to remain confident: growth prospects for 2025 have continued to propel markets higher, and our outlook stays positive for the rest of the year.Many of the same drivers remain in play. In New Zealand, interest rates and dairy prices should eventually help pull the economy out of the doldrums, and the share market has already been trading stronger in the second half. Globally, despite the United States dominating headlines for geopolitical reasons, the economy remains resilient and share markets are reflecting that.So how should we think about positioning for continued headline-grabbing volatility while holding a constructive view on markets? Are there alternative assets we can invest in? And, remembering that while markets don’t repeat, they do rhyme, what can history teach us about what comes next? Mark Brooks, Chief Investment Officer at NZ Funds, joins us to discuss these questions as another wet New Zealand spring arrives in full bloom.

What happens when a leading Silicon Valley investor turns his focus to New Zealand? Rob Coneybeer, Co-Founder of Shasta Ventures, has backed global successes like Nest, Dollar Shave Club, Canva and Anaplan. Now he’s bringing that experience and perspective here, exploring how New Zealand can better attract talent, capital and opportunity.The new Active Investor Plus visa is opening doors for international investors and operators. But capital alone isn’t enough - real success depends on connecting people with the right skills, building strong networks, and creating supportive frameworks, including tax, to grow a thriving ecosystem.Join us as we explore why New Zealand is an attractive place to grow a business and how the country can strengthen its competitive edge, and learn about Kiwi companies pushing to make their mark globally. For business owners and investors alike, this is a valuable chance to hear directly from someone who has scaled world-class companies and understands what it takes on the global stage.

Diversification doesn’t mean what it used to. In a world where the old 60/40 equity-bond model is breaking down, investors must rethink how they construct portfolios. NZ Funds’ latest research shows how overlays in gold, copper, Bitcoin, and tail-risk hedging can reshape outcomes and boost returns while controlling systemic risk.This week, we'll take a dive inside NZ Funds' recent Portfolio Optimisation Paper. From gold’s role as a diversifier, to multi-asset overlays that incorporate Bitcoin, to Universa’s tail-risk strategies, they explore how modern portfolio construction goes beyond bonds to achieve resilience in uncertain times.Markets today demand more dynamic thinking. The data shows that with the right overlays, investors can earn higher compounded returns while keeping risks in check. Join James and Stephan as they break down the next evolution in portfolio optimisation._____The presentation referenced in this video can be downloaded here - www.nzfunds.co.nz/emailarticles/monday_call/NZ_Funds_Knowledge_Series--Portfolio_Optimisation_Paper_July_2025.pdf

“Anyone who says they are an AI expert is lying!” In a world of rapid technological change, developments move so fast that it’s difficult for anyone to keep up. How do we navigate the complexities of AI and learn about it? Understanding these forces is essential for investors, businesses, and individuals alike. Craig Fenton is the founder of Fenton Innovation, an agency specialising in AI-driven automation solutions. Previously CEO of New Zealand Rugby Commercial and before that a Google veteran where he led Strategy and Operations for its business in the UK, Craig’s technology journey began at consultancy Accenture where he served as a Partner for 16 years.“Having grown up in splendid isolation at the bottom of the world, pre-internet, everything we take for granted today is still like magic to me...” Join us for an exclusive session with a seasoned technology leader, entrepreneur, and investor.

Inflation might not seem like an everyday threat, but over time, it can significantly impact your financial well-being. As prices rise steadily, the value of your savings and income can diminish, making it more challenging to save, spend, and plan for the future.In this week's Monday Call, we’ll take a deep dive into the Inflation Category. NZ Funds uniquely offers a dedicated category specifically designed to fight inflation. These assets have the potential to grow earnings at a pace faster than inflation, helping preserve and even increase your purchasing power over time.It’s essential to think in terms of decades rather than just years when planning your financial future. Join us as we explore these innovative strategies— part of all NZ Funds’ diversified portfolios—and identify the key assets that can help safeguard your wealth against the long-term effects of inflation.Please download the presentation associated with this week's Monday Call by copying and pasting this link -- https://www.nzfunds.co.nz/emailarticles/monday_call/NZ_Funds_The_Monday_Call_Inflation_Category_Review_July_2025.pdf

What happens when the rules of value change? From the rise of blockchain to tokenised assets, a quiet revolution is reshaping everything from money to markets. As systems evolve, questions around trust, ownership and coordination matter more than ever for investors, institutions and governments navigating today’s fast-changing economic landscape.We’re joined on this Monday Call by Distinguished Professor Jason Potts, one of the world’s leading thinkers on institutional economics and innovation. Based at RMIT University in Melbourne, Jason leads the Blockchain Innovation Hub, is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia, and co-edits the Journal of Institutional Economics. His work spans blockchain, creative fields and economic change.We explore the future of value, the role of digital assets in society, how blockchain can support transparency and trust, and what it means for investors and policy makers in New Zealand and beyond. Whether you're crypto-curious, intrigued by changing property rights, or keen to understand the impact of decentralised tech, this session offers sharp insight into where the world is heading.

Global forces are driving significant structural changes to the economy, creating challenges and opportunities. While tariffs and geopolitical tensions add uncertainty, we remain confident about growth prospects for 2025. A key reason for this optimism is that the changes are neither purely tariff-related nor purely negative. Three positive changes are easing banking regulation, new Crypto regulations, and the AI compute cycle. We are particularly positive about New Zealand’s outlook, supported by strong global demand for dairy, lower interest rates, and attractive market valuations, making it an appealing investment destination for a patient investor in this evolving environment. Outside of the farming sector, the local economic recovery is slow to emerge but the signs show that there is an underlying recovery happening. In the United States, the current economic setup is proving more robust than expected and this is supporting market performance. Equally, Europe and China have overdelivered relative to the downbeat sentiment. While tariff-related disruptions and corporate caution may temper growth, we believe corporate earnings will remain resilient. Overall, we see continued opportunities despite these structural shifts. This week, Mark Brooks, Chief Investment Officer at NZ Funds, joins us to review the first half of 2025 and discuss what might lie ahead for the remainder of the year.

New Zealand’s tech sector has produced major success stories, and Rowan Simpson has been behind many of them. As a founding team member of Trade Me and Xero, and an investor in firms like Vend and Timely, Rowan has helped shape a generation of Kiwi innovation. He shares the lessons learned in his new book, How to Be Wrong – A Crash Course in Start Up Success. Rowan was Trade Me’s third employee and helped grow it into a national icon. He then became a pre-IPO investor and executive at Xero, now one of New Zealand’s most successful global tech companies with millions of subscribers. These experiences gave him firsthand insight into the messy reality of scaling a business. Rowan joins us this week to discuss the mindset behind his success, share stories from the front lines, and inspire founders and business owners. From choosing the right team to scaling with confidence, Rowan brings a unique blend of optimism and clarity. If you are involved in building a business – or backing someone who is – this is a must-listen episode.

Economic and political tides are shifting. Australia’s new government is tackling low growth and rising fiscal pressure head-on, as New Zealand tries to ignite a sluggish economy. Meanwhile, trade tensions keep challenging global stability but also open new doors for business. This week we’re joined by Professor Richard Holden, Chief Economist at CA ANZ and one of Australasia’s strongest economic voices. A UNSW Professor, Harvard PhD, and Member of the Order of Australia, Richard is known for his bold views on how policy, geopolitics and markets are shaping our region’s future. For investors, business owners and advisers, these shifts matter. What new opportunities will emerge? Which sectors will face headwinds or tailwinds? And how can business seize growth in an uncertain but promising landscape? Join us on the Monday Call to hear Professor Holden’s insights.

The last three months have been packed with headlines and market moves: shares dropped sharply before bouncing back, Bitcoin hit new highs, and government fiscal positions – including New Zealand’s Budget – came into focus. While volatility may remain elevated, we continue to have confidence in the long-term outlook. What sparked the sharp market swings and the strong rebound? How did NZ Funds adjust its client portfolios, and where are they positioned now? Why is Bitcoin on such a tear, and what impact will the Budget have for investors in New Zealand?Mark Brooks, Chief Investment Officer at NZ Funds, joins us to unpack these questions and share expert insights. Enkoy this Monday Call to gain clarity and confidence about investing in today’s dynamic market environment.

Is property ownership still the Kiwi dream - or has it lost its sparkle? With interest rates falling, rents rising and prices stagnating, the housing market is full of unknowns. Add a surge in listings, and it’s no wonder Kiwis are wondering if the game has changed for good.On this Monday Call, we’re joined by Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at CoreLogic, to explore the latest data and what’s driving the market. We’ll discuss how macro factors and changing policies are shaping the future of property in New Zealand.Kelvin’s expertise in translating complex data into clear insights makes him a top authority on the subject. Whether you’re a homeowner, investor or just curious, you’ll gain valuable knowledge from this session.

Since the 2024 United States election, cryptocurrency has gained legitimacy as an asset class in the eyes of regulators. This shift has facilitated increased institutional adoption, trading, and advancements in technology surrounding digital currencies and payments that affect everyday transactions.This week, we are joined by Christopher Rhine, Galaxy Asset Management's liquid active crypto portfolio manager and emerging technology strategist. With over 20 years of investment experience, join us as Chris brings valuable insights into how investors are deploying capital into this rapidly evolving asset class.