NAB Morning Call

Friday 5th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia has managed what many other economies haven’t. We have brought down inflation without driving the economy into recession. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a direct contrast to the RBNZ approach, which was to hit the economy hard, and slower demand would mean there was lots of spare capacity, making it easier for the economy to re-establish itself. The RBA approach has been much more softly-softly, which means jobs have been maintained and growth has continued. The problem is, there’s much less spare capacity. If we see too much growth, then prices could rise, forcing the RBA to lift rates to slow things down. Is that where we are now? Can you slow the economy with just one rate rise? Sally talks to Phil about what could happen next. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields rose in Australia and Japan yesterday and overnight. In Japan 10-year JGBs reached 1.94%, the highest level since 2007. NAB’s Skye Masters says it relates to the continued expectation of a rate hike by the BoJ, and the higher yields have created a buying opportunity for investors. Yields have risen in Australia as household spending for October came in higher than expecting, suggesting the RBA might set a hawkish tone to their next meeting, indicating a rate hike is coming sooner than many have been expecting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 4th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS Treasury yields fell after the ADP jobs number came in weaker than expected. Normally, perhaps, people wouldn’t pay too much attention — they’re often wrong — but when it’s all you’ve got, it matters. It’s another reason for a rate cut by the Fed next week.Meanwhile, Aussie GDP also came in weaker than expected… though maybe strong in the right places. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to look at the implications of that, and they decipher the latest global services PMIs and look ahead to the release of Australia’s trade balance this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 3rd December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have a tiny bit more risk appetite today, which has helped push US equities higher and helped Bitcoin resume its rise to new horizons (perhaps). The Yen lost a large chunk of yesterday’s gains, but JGB yields remain high, alongside expectations for a BoJ rate hike. At home, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the latest GDP partials will do little to change the expectation for a 2.2% rise, year on year, a little higher than the RBA is forecasting. And Michelle Bullock fronts up to the senate economics committee. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 2nd December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJapan’s bond yields pushed much higher, to levels not seen since the GFC after Gov Ueda signalled that a rate hike for December really was on the cards. After many months with inflation above their target range Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what’s changed? And how much global contagion have we seen from Japan’s bond sell off.Cryptocurrencies took a particularly big hit overnight, and US equities ended their rally, with a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing read. Today GDP partials for Australia and NZ’s terms of trade are amongst the highlights. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 1st December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFor all the volatility that we saw in November we actually finished the month with the Australian dollar and US equities back where they started from. There have been movements in precious metals however, with gold bouncing back and silver hitting an all-time high on Friday. NAB's Ray Attrill actual joins Phil to talk through the latest market moves and the latest data including German inflation, Canada's GDP, Tokyo CPI and China's PMIs. They also look ahead to Australia's inflation numbers this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th November 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia is the third biggest exporter of cotton and has a reputation for quality. But Adam Key, CEO of Cotton Australia, says the differential might be changing as other producers lift their game. We do have the advantage, though, that we produce some of the highest yields in the world, but that is being challenged. Liz Stott is Chair of Cotton Australia and is a farmer from Leeton in the Riverina. She says there are years when there just isn’t enough water and production has to be cut back. It’s also has higher input costs than many other agricultural products which makes it harder to make a profit. But for the communities where cotton is grown the success of these farms is vital for local employment and supporting industries.This week Phil talks to Liz and Adam about the challenges for Australia’s cotton industry, and how Trump’s America is adding to the problem. But the answer rests with Australia’s sustainability credentials.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThanksgiving might be a US celebration, but it seems Australia and New Zealand both have a lot to be thankful for, unless you were hoping for lower interest rates. NZ’s retail sales yesterday were higher than expected, and business confidence was also strong. In Australia private new capital expenditure was high – reminiscent of the mining boom early this century, says NAB’s Sally Auld. Meanwhile, equity and bond markets in the US were closed for Thanksgiving, and with an early close today it might be another quiet session to end the week.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 27th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThree central banks close to the end of their easing cycle. A hawkish cut from the RBNZ yesterday could well be the last. The same could well apply to the RBA after yesterday’s monthly CPI came in higher than anticipated. But the Bank of England might well be ready to cut, as markets accepted more fiscal headroom and a reduction to the supply of 30-year gilts. The public response is less jubilant, particularly as the freeze on tax thresholds is not being extended to a 10-year run. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through a busy day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 26th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities are on the rise, with AI behind a chunk of it, helped by enthusiasm for Alphabet’s new chip, which can do marvellous thing apparently. But in US consumer-land demand is slowing, if September’s retail sales are anything to go by. Of course that was a while ago now, so more up to date records, like the Fed’s Beige Book tonight, will be scrutinised more than normal perhaps. Markets also responded to further speculation that Kevin Hassett will become the Fed chair next year, which could see interest rates pushed lower. Today Australia’s first monthly CPI report is out, the RBNZ makes a decision, and the UK budget is bound to upset someone and create some market volatility, whatever they decide. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 25th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt might be thanksgiving this week, but it seems tech investors have their eyes set closer to Christmas, with renewed hopes of a December rate cut. Words from Christopher Waller added to the hope. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the moves in shares is quite a remarkable sensitivity, which has not been reflected in bonds or currencies. The Aussie hasn’t seen its usual bounce as US sentiment picks up. Delayed (and out of date) data today includes US retail sales and PPIs Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 24th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABLast week was a bad one for US equities and the Australian dollar. It was even worse for Bitcoin, but NAB’s Skye Masters says it recovered over the weekend, so if you believe it’s a bellwether for equities this week could get off to a better start. Equities had already climbed on Friday as the Fed’s John Williams talked up the chance of a rate cut in December. It’s a relatively quiet week, with the US off for Thanksgiving. Locally the RBNZ meets and Australian CPI is released. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th November 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NAB’s biennial Super Insights Survey was published this week, co-authored by Morning Call regulars Ray Attrill and Rodrigo Catril. They join Phil on this week’s podcast to talk about it, alongside Mike Symonds, the director of NAB’s Currency Overlay Solutions Group.One key takeout of the survey is that Australian super funds now invest more overseas than they do domestically and that ratio will increase over time. On the podcast we look at where that money is going, and the impact President Trump’s agenda has had. What are the key thematics that are influencing investment decisions? How much are funds hedging back to the Australian dollar, and how do they manage liquidity in these turbulent times? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhat do equity markets want? NVIDIA yesterday delivered strong earnings and talked up the opportunity. ‘We’ve entered the virtuous cycle of AI’, their CEO said yesterday. After some initial enthusiasm, US shares fell today, including a 1.5% drop in NVIDIA’s price. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the caution in equities as well as deciphering a mix of jobs data, including the not-so-monthly on-farm payrolls, and a dump of weekly jobless claims. However you decipher those numbers it seems markets are increasingly expecting no move form the Fed in December. Today is PMIs day - a chance to see the comparative strengths of the US, Europe and UK. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 20th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Nothing seems to be quite hitting the spot. Our podcast is too early today to bring you the NVIDIA earnings results, which have left equities in no man’s land this week. We did get a chance to glimpse the latest Fed minutes before we hit the stop button though.The other news this morning is that the November non-farm payrolls number will be delayed, meaning there will be no other report beyond September’s delayed release tonight, ahead of the December meeting. The data is just too late, and the Fed continues to fly blind. And oil prices have fallen over fears there’s too much oil.  A resolution to the Russia Ukraine conflict, which is again making headlines, could add to that downward pressure.   NAB’s Gavin Friend in London joins Phil to talk through all of this, plus UK inflation and Australian wages data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 19th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are nervous ahead of NVIDIA earnings around this time tomorrow. The only real moves have been in equities. NAB’s Ray Attrill says, for once, the Aussie dollar hasn’t felt the brunt of the risk-off sentiment. We’ve also been seeing the first splattering of jobs data. The non-farm payrolls data tomorrow will be for September. ADP’s numbers for September were up, but overnight we saw their weekly numbers showing weekly falls through October. Weekly jobless claims were quietly added to a Bureau of Labour research database showing recent claims had not moved significantly since before the shutdown.The RBA minutes yesterday reaffirmed concerns over capacity constraints, with the wage price index released today along with UK CPI numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 18th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere have been no major market moves overnight as investors wait for the non-farm payrolls data on Thursday and NVIDIA earnings middle of the week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk about how the potential reaction to each, as well as today’s fall in the Yen after Japan’s soft GDP read. Plus, Canada’s CPI, the better-than-expected NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index and an upgrade to the EU’s growth forecasts. It’s another relatively quiet session ahead before the big numbers start trickling in. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 17th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump announced a relaxing on beef tariffs, alongside other food produce, to tackle cost of living pressures for US shoppers. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s not necessarily good news for Australian farmers because it potentially reduces our tariff advantage, which has seen a sizeable increase in Australia beef exports to the US this year.Meanwhile, the US data drought officially finishes on Thursday when September’s non-farm payrolls data is released. Fed speakers have been continuing to sound hawkish, opening the potential for no cut in December.Phil and Taylor also discuss how markets are reacting to the UK’s  budget uncertainty, China’s activity data on Friday and what to look out for this week, including Australian wages data on Wednesday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th November 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Historically America’s big-tech firms have seemed like a safe bet for investors. They had strong revenue streams, and they were ploughing profits back into innovative ideas for future revenue growth. That’s changed since the pandemic with the rapid growth of AI, with firms embarking on debt-fuelled expansion in what Phil suggests is a good old-fashioned land-grab.Lincoln Valentine is a senior analyst for international equities at JBWere. He agrees that there’s a land grab going on, and debts are rising, but he says their earnings continue to grow and their valuations reflect that. The question is, what happens next? When returns don’t match the level of investment made, or when one or two players start to cut their spending? Phil asks where are the risks, who has the edge and how long will it all last? It’s a high stakes game, that nobody dares to ignore. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday14th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSally suggested as much yesterday. Now the recovery in the unemployment rate in Australia yesterday has confirmed it. NAB is not expecting any further easing by the RBA in this cycle. Ken Crompton talks through the numbers that led to this decision – actually, the employment data probably had the least to do with NAB’s call.Meanwhile, in the US, the Fed is still divided, although speakers are sounding increasing hawkish. Perhaps it’s the lack of data that’s getting to them. It remains uncertain what will be available and when, but CPI and the unemployment rate for October are already identified as casualties. Ken and Phil also talk through data from New Zealand and the UK and prepare for a data dump from China.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.