NAB Morning Call

Friday 27th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk about the curious response to NVIDIA’s 94% profit surge, which wasn’t enough to satisfy demanding investors, even though it beat expectations. The US continues to build up its military hardware in the Middle East as US-Iran talks in Geneva head nowhere, keeping oil prices on edge. Closer to home, they discuss the latest Aussie Capex data — highlighting a boom in data centres and renewable energy investment — while checking the speed of the economic recovery in New Zealand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 26th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Aussie dollar outshone most currencies again overnight. It’s now at multi-decade high against the Yen. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about the influence of yesterday’s CPI numbers and weakening of the US dollar. There’s also a brief look at the State of the Union Address, why the Yen is weakening further, the push and pull of oil prices and what next for tariffs. Aside from Q4 capex for Australia, it’s a low news day ahead, unless NVIDIA lights the touchpaper on tech stocks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 25th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters about a fairly quiet session for data and market action. President Trump’s 10% tariffs has sent ripples through the UK and EU, whilst the Yen has felt pressure following reports of political concern over further rate hikes, as well as China’s strategic export ban on critical minerals to several Japanese firms. There was a rebound in US consumer confidence driven largely by Republican voters, a tech-led rally in US equities ahead of NVIDIA’s results (still a day away), and the "open question" of rate cuts at the Bank of England. They also look ahead to Australia's monthly CPI release today, Michelle Bullock’s upcoming address, and Donald Trump’s (no doubt lengthy) State of the Union address. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 24th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to dissect a classic "risk-off" shift in the global markets, marked by a retreat in US stocks and a pivot toward safe-haven assets. They explore the fallout from recent US Supreme Court rulings on trade policy, the persistent volatility surrounding the AI and software sectors, and shifting labor market expectations, highlighted in a speech nby Chris Waller overnight. Plus, the surprising resilience of the German business climate and the strengthening of the Chinese Renminbi as markets return from the Lunar New Year break. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 23rd February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil sits down with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril to break down a chaotic weekend in US trade policy following the Supreme Court's ruling against previous tariff structures and the administration's subsequent pivot to a global 15% tariff. They discuss the ripple effects across global markets—including a surprisingly resilient Aussie dollar—while analysing a significant miss in US Q4 GDP and the implications of rising core PCE on future Fed easing. They also touch on the latest global PMI data, showing unexpected strength in the UK and Germany, and preview a busy week ahead featuring Australian CPI and insights from Fed officials on the economic impact of AI. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st February 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In this weekend’s podcast, Dr. Blair Chapman, Senior Economist at SEEK, previews the upcoming SEEK AI Gauge Report, highlighting that while overall job ad volumes have recently declined, demand for AI-specific skills is surging. Chapman notes a "broadening" of AI demand beyond the technical IT sector into fields like marketing and content creation, where approximately one in 20 ads now request AI proficiency. While the podcast addresses common fears of job displacement, particularly in entry-level white-collar roles, Chapman emphasizes that AI is currently augmenting rather than replacing most positions and creating new specialized roles such as AI ethics officers and AI content trainers. Ultimately, the discussion suggests that "AI fluency" is becoming a baseline requirement across the Australian workforce to drive productivity and navigate the evolving labour market. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, reinforcing the case for a potential RBA rate hike in May as the labour market remains tighter than expected. Meanwhile, oil prices have surged above $71.80 a barrel as the U.S. bolsters its air power in the Middle East to levels not seen since 2003, creating a volatile backdrop of geopolitical risk. While the U.S. continues to show economic resilience with a strong labor market, a record-high trade deficit and cautious outlooks from major retailers like Walmart are tempering global market optimism. NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to talk through the overnight market news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThings are heating up in the Middle East, with Iran getting itself ready in case talks fail. As a result oil prices have moved up sharply, with Brent back over $70 a barrel. While the geopolitical scene is tense, tech stocks are bouncing back, perhaps using a set of moderately optimistic second-tier data as the reason. Meanwhile NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through UK inflatioin, which has cooled to 3%, and Aussie wages holding steady at 3.4%. Australian employment numbers are out today and, to top it all off, the tech world is bracing for Mark Zuckerberg’s landmark testimony on whether Meta’s algorithms are intentionally addictive—an outcome that could have a big impact on share prices. Gavin also manages to sneek in the FOMC minutes, just released. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA choppy session for equities, bonds and energy, as Iran went from powder keg to hopes of peace. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the talks have a long way to go and oil is still well down despite the switch in sentiment. Phil and Rodrigo also break down the pound’s 0.6% slide following a rise in UK unemployment to 5.2% and they dive into the RBA’s latest minutes, which showed a hold was given consideration. There’s also discussion on Canada’s "slow grind" disinflation and a look ahead to today’s Australian Wage Price Index and the RBNZ rate decision. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 17th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTrading was thin with holidays in the US and Asia on Monday, but there was still data around. NAB’s Sally Auld talks to Phil about jittery GDP figures from Japan and the mixed industrial signals coming out of Europe. They also weigh up the latest Bank of America fund manager survey, which shows high investor optimism despite a lack of downside protection, and touch on why geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are keeping a floor under oil prices. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil catches up with NAB’s Ken Crompton to break down the fallout from a cooler-than-expected 0.2% US inflation print, which sent bond yields tumbling and left the US 2-year yield at its lowest level since mid-2022. They dig into the reality of the Fed’s waiting game, the New York Fed data showing that US consumers and firms are footing 90% of the tariff bill, and why the "AI vigilantes" are continuing to eye tech stocks with a bit more scepticism. From the Bank of England’s internal split over rate hikes to a busy week ahead featuring Japan's Q4 GDP and fresh inflation numbers from the UK and Canada, it’s a deep dive into whether the global disinflation trend is truly taking hold or hitting a snag. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th February 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Phil grills BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis on which central bank played the inflation fight better — the RBNZ with its early hammer, or the RBA with its softer touch. They tear into NZ’s slow growth, a labour market now showing 5.4% unemployment, population pressures, housing distortions, and whether China’s slowdown or Trump‑era geopolitics pose the bigger threat. Plus: can NZ keep leaning on agriculture, is tech finally a real opportunity, and how do the two neighbours stack up on growth, risks and untapped upside. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS markets are wobbling again as the AI boom shows its darker side — soaring investment costs on one hand, and the threat of software-sector disruption on the other — dragging the NASDAQ and S&P sharply lower. Bond yields are softer, commodities are sliding, and the Aussie has dipped below 71 US cents. In the UK, GDP is technically growing but only just, while Japan enjoys a rare week of political calm that’s helped steady JGBs and lift the yen. At home, the RBA’s Sarah Hunter has doubled down on the message that full employment and inflation remain uncomfortably intertwined. And with US CPI due today, markets are bracing for whether the Fed’s disinflation path is still intact. Phil talks it all through with NAB’s Ray Attrill. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA surprise surge in Australian home loans has everyone asking whether it’s a one off policy quirk or fresh fuel for another RBA hike, while a headline grabbing jump in US payrolls looks far less convincing once you see where the jobs actually are. Add in firmer oil on Iran worries, a flat US dollar, a stronger Aussie, and the UK bracing for GDP growth that’s technically positive but barely, and you’ve got plenty for NAB’s Taylor Nugent to unpack on today’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGlobal markets are still grinding higher, but the real action is in bonds and currencies, with US Treasury yields tumbling after flat retail sales and softer price data, and the yen staging the day’s standout move, edging further away from the intervention zone. Commodities are drifting lower, Bitcoin continues its long slide from last year’s peak, and all eyes now turn to an unusually timed mid‑week non‑farm payrolls. At home, the NAB Business Survey shows conditions easing but confidence nudging up, capacity pressures softening, and consumer sentiment taking another hit alongside a sharp drop in building approvals. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to unpack what falling yields say about Fed expectations, why the yen is suddenly lively, and what the latest Australian data could mean for the RBA’s next move. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGlobal markets are in a buoyant mood, with US and European equities pushing higher, the US dollar sliding and lifting the Aussie above 70.9 US cents, and commodities from gold to oil on the rise — but the real story today is at home, where Australia’s household spending remains 5% higher than a year ago. Will today’s NAB business survey continues to show strong trading conditions and high-capacity utilisation, reinforcing the question of whether the economy is simply running too hot for the RBA’s comfort. With US markets bracing for retail sales, inflation and jobs data, Japan settling after Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election win, and UK assets wobbling on political jitters, Rodrigo Catril joins us to unpack whether Australia’s resilience is now a policy problem. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 9th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA huge week of US data lies ahead — payrolls, CPI and retail spending in the same week for the first time — but for now optimism is winning out, with US equities roaring back on Friday despite lingering worries over the scale of AI investment. The S&P jumped 2%, the NASDAQ a touch more, and the Dow hit a fresh high, while the US dollar slipped and commodities pushed higher, from Brent to gold to Bitcoin. Markets are still weighing softer job openings and rising claims against Fed Vice Chair Jefferson’s view that policy is already near neutral, and in Japan the likely landslide win for Sanae Takaichi raises fresh questions about how quickly the BoJ might move on rates. Closer to home, the Aussie dollar is back above 70 US cents and household spending data is due today. The gains of the previous two months are not expected to be maintained. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th February 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This weekend we’re looking at Minotaur Capital — the global equities fund run by just two people and a whole lot of AI. Armina “Arms” Rosenberg and Thomas Rice launched the firm in late 2023 with a simple idea: replace the analyst floor with generative intelligence capable of scanning markets, news flow and pricing anomalies at a scale no human team can match. It’s worked so far — a notional million dollars at the start of 2024 would have grown to more than $1.43 million by year’s end — but the bigger question is whether this is the future of funds management, where algorithms and AI agents do the heavy lifting and humans steer the thematics. We talk to Arms about her path from JP Morgan to Atlassian to co‑founding Minotaur, how their proprietary engine finds mispriced companies, why they’ve beaten the MSCI hardly touching the Magnificent Seven, and what the next generation of AI‑driven research looks like. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS markets slid again overnight as tech stocks took another hit, with Alphabet’s hefty AI‑driven capex plans spooking investors, while softer US jobs data raised fresh questions about next week’s non‑farm payrolls and the Fed’s path for rate cuts. Treasury yields fell, commodities weakened sharply, and the Aussie slipped below 69.8 US cents. In Europe, both the Bank of England and ECB held rates, even as UK inflation is expected to hit target by April and Eurozone inflation already sits below 2%. Locally, Australia’s trade balance improved, and all eyes turn to RBA Governor Michelle Bullock’s parliamentary testimony today. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins the show, failing to appreciate the cultural significance of Pascall’s Pineapple Lumps on Waitangi Day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 5th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTech stocks are sliding again, with AMD’s weak outlook triggering a broader rethink on AI spending and dragging the NASDAQ lower. Ken Crompton says markets are questioning whether AI revenues can keep pace with the investment surge, ahead of Alphabet’s results tonight and NVIDIA later this month. Energy is the standout as oil climbs on renewed Iran–US tensions and delays to planned talks. US data stay firm — services ISM strengthened, ADP was soft, and the BLS has reset its calendar with JOLTS today and payrolls next Wednesday. Europe’s inflation eased, the ECB and BoE are set to hold, NZ unemployment rose on higher participation, and China’s private‑sector services PMI improved. The USD is firmer, the AUD is softer, oil is up, and global equities are split between tech weakness and energy strength. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.