NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 28th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe dollar has weakened again, lifting the Aussie and most majors, while oil, equities and spot gold all pushed higher in a broadly risk‑positive session. Bond moves are mild but yields are edging up across several markets, and silver is having a wild swing lower. Taylor Nugent joins us as the NAB Business Survey shows a rebound in conditions and confidence, capacity utilisation easing only slightly, and Q4 CPI likely to come in above the RBA’s forecast — all reinforcing the chance of a February rate hike. With the Fed tonight, a hawkish tone could unsettle markets given sticky inflation, softer jobs data and a sharp drop in US consumer confidence, alongside rising political tension and the risk of a partial government shutdown. We also have the Bank of Canada, NZ filled‑jobs data and a huge slate of tech earnings still to come. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 27th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar is on the back foot, falling to its lowest level in four months, the Yen is clawing back territory, precious metals are surging to fresh highs, and the Aussie is the strongest it’s been in years — all setting the stage for a busy week ahead. Attention now turns to whether talk of coordinated action between Japan and the New York Fed signals more of a push for a weaker Dollar and stronger Yen — even as the BoJ remains reluctant to signal rate hikes. Gavin Friend joins us to unpack the latest market moves, the influence of stronger US data and the political uncertainty from Washington, including the real possibility of a US government shutdown this week. Domestically, the NAB Business Survey lands today, ahead of tomorrow’s Q4 CPI, with US consumer confidence also on the slate Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd January 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Tom Holland, deputy global research director at Gavekal, argues that Donald Trump’s flurry of geopolitical moves — from abducting Nicolás Maduro to threatening Iran and making claims on Greenland — is best read as strategic signalling aimed at China rather than random headline chasing. By disrupting Venezuelan and potentially Iranian oil flows, Washington is reminding Beijing how exposed it is to imported energy, while the sudden fixation on Greenland reflects US fears of China and Russia expanding into an increasingly accessible Arctic. Layered on top is a deep contradiction in Trump’s promise of “energy dominance”: US drillers need high prices to invest, while Trump promises voters cheap fuel. Markets, meanwhile, have largely tuned out of the geopolitical noise. The result, Tom says, is a mix of genuine strategic messaging and Trump’s trademark “flood the zone” chaos — a pattern that will shape, and probably destabilise, the months ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets faced a whiplash day of geopolitics and data, as President Trump’s abrupt Greenland U‑turn steadies equity markets even while uncertainty keeps gold surging. Phil and NAB’s Skye Masters unpack a stronger Aussie dollar, rising local bond yields, and the surprisingly sharp drop in Australia’s unemployment rate that has markets leaning even further toward a February RBA hike. They sweep through firmer US spending and GDP revisions, falling jobless claims, softer NZ retail numbers, and a big day of global PMIs, CPI prints, and the Bank of Japan’s delicate dance with a weakening yen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 22nd January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump used his Davos address to insist there is “no going back” on his push to acquire Greenland, ruling out military action but signalling that more tariffs on Europe look inevitable — a stance that has kept gold at fresh highs even as broader markets remain relatively calm. Currencies and bonds were quiet overnight, with the Aussie dollar firmer and JGB yields retracing, while US equities stabilised after yesterday’s sharp fall. Oil is little changed, but the IEA warns that rising surplus stocks will keep prices capped despite stronger non‑OECD demand this year. Hopes of a Ukraine breakthrough faded with President Zelensky absent from Davos, and the US Supreme Court appeared sceptical over the case to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, hinting the central bank may not be as heavily reshaped as expected. US pending home sales slumped in December, UK inflation was mixed, and attention now turns to today’s Australian employment data and US releases including core PCE, income and spending. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 21st January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are on edge this morning as the Greenland fallout continues to reverberate through currencies, bonds, metals and equities, with fears that US–European trade and intelligence ties may suffer lasting damage. Tensions escalated as the President revealed a private text exchange with President Macron and threatened 200% tariffs on French wine and champagne. Meanwhile, Japan has endured a sharp bond sell off —its “Liz Truss moment” — after concerns that Sanae Takaichi’s proposed tax cuts are unfunded. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through a session that has seen commodity prices are surging, equities weaker and bond yields are higher across major markets. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 20th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump’s renewed push on Greenland and fresh tariff threats against Europe have markets bracing for possible retaliation, with EU leaders signalling they may hold firm rather than concede — even hinting at using their anti‑coercion powers, despite German hesitation. Precious metals are surging as investors hedge the “Greenland crisis”, while currencies and bonds move only modestly in a session thinned by the US holiday. European equities are weaker, China’s latest data remain soft, and Canada’s inflation mix adds to global CPI nerves ahead of the US print. With Davos only just underway — and memories of last year’s sharply anti‑EU Trump video address still fresh — the next 24 hours will determine whether this escalates into a trade war or proves to be little more than a storm in a teacup. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through it all. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 19th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets open the week a little snowblind, with investors unsure how to process President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland and the threat of tariffs on European countries that oppose the idea. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to sift through the market reaction, alongside shifting expectations for the next Fed chair — with Kevin Hassett fading and Kevin Warsh now the frontrunner — plus a firmer US dollar, softer Aussie, weaker equities, rising bond yields and a yen that’s clawing back amid talk of possible intervention. China’s GDP and industrial production are due, so it Canada’s CPI, with the US closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day and the World Economic Forum kicking off in Davos. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th January 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia’s housing market keeps getting more expensive, yet the real issue isn’t just how many homes we build — it’s how slowly they are changing hands. Dr Nicola Powell, chief economist at Domain, says turnover has become a structural drag, creating inefficiencies that stem far more from policy settings than from raw supply. Even with immigration easing, demand still outpaces movement, and rising prices continue to inflate the value of the national housing stock far faster than the number of dwellings themselves. Building approvals have jumped, apartment plans are surging, and forecasts point to further price gains in 2026, but the deeper question remains: why isn’t the market slowing? From interest‑rate dynamics and construction costs to population shifts and the FOMO factor, today’s episode digs into the mechanics behind a market that pushes prices ever high, well beyond the bounds of affordability. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe mood in markets has brightened as tensions around Iran appear to have eased, with President Trump signalling a softer military stance, and attention has swung back to stronger‑than‑expected US data — lower jobless claims, upbeat regional manufacturing surveys and a solid equity rebound led by tech and small caps. Oil has slumped sharply, bond yields are higher in the US and UK, and the US dollar is firmer, while the UK has surprised with a 0.3% rise in November GDP that keeps the quarter out of the red. With a quieter day ahead — NZ PMI, US industrial production and the NAHB housing index, NAB’s Gavin Friend makes sense of a week that ends much calmer than it began. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 15th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA cautious, uneasy calm hangs over markets this morning, with no ruling yet from the US Supreme Court on tariffs and no military response against Iran, even as the US and UK quietly evacuate personnel from a Qatar base. Equities have stumbled, led by sharp falls in the S&P and NASDAQ, while investors rotate out of big tech and into small caps and precious metals, pushing gold, silver, copper and tin to fresh records. Bond yields are lower across the board, the US dollar is softer, and commodities are firmer, all underscoring a clear risk‑off tone. China has posted a striking US$1.2 trillion annual trade surplus on stronger‑than‑expected export growth, US retail sales have surprised on the upside, and Australia’s job vacancies continue their slow drift lower. We also touch on mixed US bank earnings, improving NZ labour data, upcoming regional Fed surveys and UK GDP and industrial production out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 14th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA softer run of US inflation has kept hopes of further rate cuts alive, even as markets juggle mixed earnings, fragile consumer sentiment in Australia, signs of recovery in New Zealand, and a surge in Japanese yields driven by election rumours. Commodities are climbing on geopolitical tension, with President Trump’s “help is on its way” message to Iranian protesters fuelling speculation of US action and adding to the broader sense of unease. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 13th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has been directing sharp words at Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve, while the Fed Chair has pushed back, suggesting that any legal action against him is politically motivated. It’s the kind of confrontation with the central bank that many had anticipated, yet markets have taken it in their stride so far.Where markets have reacted more noticeably is the proposal for a 10% cap on credit‑card interest rates — though this may prove to be another policy idea that makes noise without ever becoming reality.We also look ahead to US CPI, and unpack a couple of Australian data points: consumer confidence, household spending, and what they collectively signal for the RBA. If further confirmation was needed, yesterday’s numbers strengthen the case for another rate rise — potentially as early as next month. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 12th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS rate cut expectations are starting to erode, even as jobs growth softens. Markets are beginning to question whether weaker payrolls really matter if inflation refuses to fall — and this week’s CPI and PPI will be critical in deciding that. But, as NAB's Ray Attrill points out, it depends on Trump's nomination for Fed chair. The delayed Supreme Court ruling on tariffs now looks set for Wednesday, adding another layer of uncertainty. And here at home, fresh Australian consumer spending data lands today, giving an early read on household momentum heading into year end. Welcome to 2026, which promises to be just as firey as President Trump’s first year in office. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia has managed to steer its own course through a turbulent 2025. Taylor Nugent explains how the RBA resisted the urge to slash rates early in the year, instead holding firm as inflation proved more stubborn than expected. That stance kept the economy balanced while other central banks lurched between easing and tightening. Compared with New Zealand’s harsher approach and the US’s tariff‑driven dilemmas, Australia’s policy mix looks measured – not perfect, but enough to avoid the extremes.Rodrigo Catril adds that the Aussie dollar has been resilient, even if it hasn’t fully matched the US dollar’s swings. Its fortunes are now more tied to China and Asian sentiment than Wall Street, and with local rates set to rise while the Fed eases, he sees the currency heading towards 70 cents. Ken Crompton rounds out the picture with bonds, noting strong demand for Australian debt and a widening yield gap with the US. Together, the NAB team sketch a story of a country that hasn’t soared, but hasn’t stumbled either – Australia has held its own. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday19th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets seem to be heading to the end of the year on a fairly steady note, with currencies little changed today and equities pushing higher . Bond yields are mixed, oil is nudging back above $60 a barrel, and silver’s up and down like a yo‑yo.For our final morning edition of the year, NAB’s Gavin Friend joins us from London to unpack the latest central bank moves: the Bank of England’s razor‑thin vote to cut rates, the ECB holding firm, and the Bank of Japan poised to lift rates to their highest since 1995. We also touch on Norges Bank and the Riksbank staying put, US inflation data and jobless claims, and a surprisingly strong GDP print out of New Zealand.Plenty to chew over before the Christmas break — from hawkish cuts to resilient economies, and what it all means for the Fed, fiscal policy, and the year ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 18th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a big Thursday, with markets bracing for the BoE and ECB after UK CPI surprised with outright deflation. German sentiment disappointed again, and Japan’s stronger exports added to the case for a BoJ hike tomorrow. All eyes are on the November U.S. CPI release later today. Equities remain under pressure with no Santa Claus rally in sight, oil prices edge higher amid Trump’s Russian tanker threats, and silver hits fresh highs. Meanwhile, New Zealand shows signs of recovery with improved confidence and GDP prospects. Ray Attrill joins for his final time in 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 17th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA new rate call from NAB: the RBA will move rates higher twice in the first half of next year. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent before they dissect the latest non‑farm payrolls data from the US for October and November. Plus, the mixed picture in the latest global PMIs. The surprise outsider was the UK, the only place to show an improvement in services and manufacturing numbers. That’s not going to stop the Bank of England, though, which is expected to cut rates this week. We are a day away from the central bank deluge. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 16th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABChina’s economy is still struggling to find momentum, with retail sales growth slipping to its weakest pace since 2022 and investment dropping sharply. Property prices are sliding too, adding to the lack of confidence, and oil markets are feeling the knock‑on effect. Japan, on the other hand, looks brighter: the Tankan survey beat expectations, strengthening the case for a rate hike later this week. Meanwhile, Europe’s industrial production is picking up and Canada surprised with outright deflation in November.Today the focus is on the late running US jobs data for November – finally something up to date, although we’ll have to guess what happened in October. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 15th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a pivotal week for global markets as central banks take centre stage. The long‑awaited, up‑to‑date U.S. Non‑Farm Payrolls report finally lands, just days after the Fed’s decision — a timing mismatch that leaves investors scrambling. In the UK, GDP figures arrived with sharper precision, revealing an economy sliding into decline right before the Bank of England meets. And across the globe, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, and others are lining up with their own policy calls. NAB's Sally Auld talks us through the busy week ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.