The Western Bubble

Today, we look back at a year defined by one name: Trump. Since taking power in January, the US President claims to have ended eight wars, ranging from the conflict between Israel and Hamas to tensions in the DRC. We analyse whether this is true peace or simply a series of liquidation sales.We also look at where Europe stands in this new order. With a new US National Security Strategy creating another breaking point for the transatlantic alliance, the continent seems to be going nowhere. Neoliberal frameworks are collapsing before our eyes, yet politicians remain focused on keeping Big Tech happy while the social fabric unravels.On a personal note, this episode wraps up a massive year for the podcast. After 37 episodes in 2025, we are taking a slightly longer break than usual to prepare for some major changes next year, including video content and guests. We will see you in the new year.This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA, Dario Hasenstab, and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

We intended to sit down this week and dismantle the new US National Security Strategy piece by piece. Unfortunately, the sheer weight of American imperial delusion appears to have been too much for Balder’s immune system.In this brief update, Dario explains why we are hitting pause for a few days. The document itself is a fascinating roadmap of where Washington thinks the world is going versus where it is actually heading, and it deserves a proper deep dive rather than a feverish skim.We will be back next week with a full breakdown of the strategy alongside our comprehensive Recap of 2025. It has been a year where the Western Bubble didn't just wobble...This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA, Dario Hasenstab, and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

The rumour mill has stopped spinning, and the text is finally out. Donald Trump’s administration has drafted a 28-point "peace plan" for Ukraine, and it reads less like a diplomatic treaty and more like a liquidation sale.In this episode, we sat down and analysed the entire document point by point, so you don’t have to. We unpack the specific clauses that signal a complete collapse of Western strategy, including:The Territorial Concession: Why recognising Donetsk and Luhansk as "de facto Russian" is just the tip of the iceberg.The Profit Clause: The shocking provision where the US claims 50% of the profits from investment ventures using frozen Russian assets.The Cap: The demand to limit Ukraine’s armed forces to 600,000 personnel, effectively crippling its future defence.The Rehabilitation: The proposal to invite Russia back into the G8, signalling the official end of the "rules-based order."We conclude by discussing what this document tells us about the "Western Bubble." The West spent three years talking about sovereignty and democracy, only to end up with a spreadsheet that treats a sovereign nation as a distressed asset.This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA, Dario Hasenstab, and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

Donald Trump has escalated military pressure on Venezuela at a speed that should alarm everyone. As of mid-November 2025, the United States has carried out at least twenty-one strikes, killing eighty-three people and leaving only two survivors. Furthermore, there are now an estimated fifteen thousand US troops in the region, including marines stationed offshore and thousands of personnel at bases in Puerto Rico. Europe has remained quiet on this particular topic... we wonder why. We also react to a remarkable Fox Business interview with Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar, who casually frames Venezuela as a terrorist organisation, compares Nicolás Maduro to bin Laden, and claims that invading Venezuela would be good for the US economy. The justifications offered include everything from oil, to Hamas, to Hezbollah, to drug cartels, to protecting American children. What is striking is how easily the language of the War on Terror has been repackaged for a Latin American target.Finally, we discuss the confusion on the Left. After years of calling Maduro illegitimate, parts of the Left now feel compelled to defend him simply because Trump is the one threatening him. This reflex says more about Western political tribalism than it does about Venezuela.This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA, Dario Hasenstab, and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

This week, we look at the growing concerns around the so-called AI bubble and why the panic is beginning to resemble the early 2000s, only multiplied by trillions. Nvidia is now valued higher than Germany’s entire economic output in 2025, which means one single company is worth two and a half times the combined value of all publicly traded firms in Germany.A recent MIT report shows that 95 percent of organisations investing in generative AI see zero return, despite pouring thirty to forty billion dollars into it. Even Google’s own CEO has admitted that parts of the current AI boom look irrational. Still, optimists like Mustafa Suleyman insist this moment is historic and that sceptics simply lack imagination.So, is this genuine technological transformation or a collective fever dream, driven by hype, speculation, and fear of missing out? What is the role of managerial attitudes in this whole situation?This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA, Dario Hasenstab, and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

As COP 30 begins in Belém, we look at how the world is heading into another climate summit with rising emissions, crumbling political will, and a system still built on ideas from the 1990s. Global fossil CO2 emissions are expected to increase again in 2025 to a record 38.1 billion metric tons. Western will to climate protection is suffering from populism, which is weakening climate policy across democracies, a trend Dario sees firsthand in his work.This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA Dario Hasenstab and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

This week, we talk about the surprising rise of Zohran Mamdani and why his victory matters far beyond New York. His proposals are, in reality, standard European centre-left policies. The reaction to him, though, reveals something deeper in American political culture: racism, Islamophobia, and a growing panic about who gets to define the political centre at all.Mamdani is winning over parts of the Trump base by talking about material conditions instead of cultural panic. Meanwhile, the Democratic establishment is telling itself that recent wins in Virginia and New Jersey confirm the safety of staying in the centre. Mamdani is treated as an anomaly, not a blueprint. But this misreads the moment entirely. If the Democrats repeat the mistake of 2016 with Bernie Sanders, by drifting further to the centre (right) out of fear of their own voters, they will continue to inflate the Western Bubble rather than address the real crisis.This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA, Dario Hasenstab, and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

In this episode, we look at what the world actually looks like after the decline of neoliberalism. The systems that once kept global politics, trade, and humanitarian responses predictable are dissolving, and what is emerging is not a stable alternative but something closer to global anarchy.The United States has pushed tariffs to levels not seen in over a century, and is now carrying out airstrikes on civilian vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific with almost no international consequences. Meanwhile, the humanitarian disaster in Sudan continues without meaningful action from the so-called international community, even as millions are displaced and famine spreads.Multilateralism is not simply weakening. It is disappearing. And when there is no mechanism for cooperation, crisis management, or accountability, what remains is a world where power decides everything and suffering becomes background noise.This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA, Dario Hasenstab, and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

China has quietly positioned itself as the global gatekeeper of rare-earth metals, now expanding export restrictions as a response to the United States imposing new trade barriers and levies. Meanwhile, the Netherlands caused a geopolitical tug-of-war between the European Union and China over the chip industry that powers modern life. Once again, Western countries seem unprepared for the long game as Western actions against China are hurting domestic industries.This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA, Dario Hasenstab, and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

Donald Trump has done it again: a dramatic announcement, a deadline, and a deal. His new 20-point peace plan for Gaza was signed between Israel and Hamas, hailed as the beginning of a new era, and even earned him a Nobel Peace Prize nomination from Javier Milei and Bosnia.But is this truly the end of one of the world’s most intractable conflicts, or just another temporary ceasefire dressed up as history?In this episode, we unpack the so-called Trump Peace Plan, how it differs from his earlier proposals, and why nearly everyone, from Western leaders to regional actors, seems eager to believe this time will be different. We also look at the historical record, current statements, and political incentives that suggest the fighting might not be over for long.This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA, Dario Hasenstab, and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

After Balder called out Generation Z two weeks ago for not engaging enough in activism, we return to the question that lingers beneath everything: what can we actually do in a world where the West keeps declining, institutions are under attack, and everything feels like it is too much?Is the answer to cancel Disney, rage on social media, or take to the streets? Or are we simply too caught up in symbolic gestures while real change slips further away?There are also policy proposals emerging in response to a West in decline. From California’s Proposition 50 (the so-called Election Rigging Response Act) to renewed calls to ban Germany’s AfD, this episode explores what happens when societies start losing faith in their own systems, and how democracies respond when pushed to the edge.This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA, Dario Hasenstab, and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

In this episode of the Western Bubble, we turn our attention to Israel, where events of the past weeks have revealed a country spiralling out of control. The largest civilian-led convoy in history, with over 40 vessels and 500 participants from more than 44 countries, attempted to break the blockade of Gaza, only to be intercepted by Israeli forces. At the same time, Israel ordered airstrikes against seven different countries in the past two months: Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Tunisia, Qatar, Iran, and Yemen.We also discuss why more and more Western countries have begun to recognise Palestine since 2023, and why this shift is happening now.This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA Dario Hasenstab and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

After a two-month break, we return to find the decline of liberal democracy in the United States accelerating at a frightening pace. We look back at the assassination of Charlie Kirk to the cancellation of Jimmy Kimmel and the indictment of James Comey.We then take a step aside to talk about Generation Z colliding with reality in today’s job market, reflecting on two recent Harvard studies about boredom, entry-level jobs, and the risks of outsourcing development to artificial intelligence.Finally, we turn back to geopolitics and debate Europe’s role in the face of Trump’s bullying. Should the EU strike out boldly with a new vision for the future, or is a radical break with the transatlantic relationship too dangerous to risk?This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA Dario Hasenstab and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com

This week, we draw an uncomfortable comparison between ICE in the United States and Frontex in Europe. Whether it’s children in cages or children being handed picture books about their own deportation, the language of “in the child’s best interest” rings hollow. We also challenge the idea that only the US is responsible for enabling Israel. While Washington’s military and political support is undeniable, Europe is also complicit, through inaction and ongoing arms deliveries. The truth is, both the US and Europe share a deeper problem: the erosion of personal responsibility and a neglect of the social contract.Examples range from protests in Epping to a $16 million settlement and cancelling Stephen Colbert between Paramount and Trump, displaying open corruption, to Colombia paying $200 million and revoking 70 degrees over fear of Trump. We highlight examples of institutions and individuals failing in their duties.But we end on a rare positive note before the summer break: a parent who actually took personal responsibility. See you back in September!This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA Dario Hasenstab and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.Here are the links we talked about: Good parenting: https://x.com/AlexRothe92/status/1949103538082054435?s=19Jubilee Video: https://youtu.be/2S-WJN3L5eo?si=m_O7w3x0riTojY2x&t=1322"Children's Book": https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/6eea0e99-e464-11ef-be2a-01aa75ed71a1#

This week, we dig into the renewed uproar around Jeffrey Epstein’s infamous network and how its resurfacing in 2025 is fueling not just conspiracy theories, but a deeper institutional and psychological crisis.But this story isn’t really about Epstein or Trump. It’s about how simplified moral binaries are hijacking political discourse. We look at how these narratives flatten complex realities, fuel extreme tribalism, and damage the very institutions meant to uphold accountability.If the system can't be trusted and people can’t agree on what’s real, how do we move forward? That’s the real question.This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA Dario Hasenstab and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

In this episode, we return to a theme we first explored three years ago: the steady hollowing out of institutions. Recently, the decline has accelerated further, eroding both credibility and effectiveness.We look at the wave of NATO and EU countries, including Finland and Lithuania, pulling out of the Vancouver landmine ban treaty, citing Russian threats. At the same time, the United States shows open hostility toward international institutions it created: from imposing sanctions on ICC judges investigating Israel to citing the “Hague Invasion Act” to undermine accountability when it is useful. At the same time, still relying on it to criticise those it sees as adversaries. Elsewhere, Trump uses tariffs as a blunt instrument to reward allies and punish enemies. This time targeting Brazil over the indictment of Bolsonaro, and pressuring Israel to pardon Netanyahu altogether.This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA Dario Hasenstab and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

In this episode, we unpack the newly passed Big Beautiful Bill and what it says about the state of Western democracy. Despite two Republican defections, the bill sailed through Congress, bringing with it massive increases in military and immigration enforcement spending, the extension of unsustainable tax cuts, and the likely loss of health coverage for millions of Americans.But the real story goes deeper. How is it possible that legislation this harmful still passes? From weak parliamentarians to increasingly executive-dominated legislatures, to parties enforcing strict conformity, we explore how Western democracies are drifting toward top-down governance. We draw parallels from the U.S. to Germany, the Netherlands, and the U.K., all facing their own versions of this political decay.Has democracy become too slow and inconvenient for the modern voter? Tune in as we explore what this latest bill really reveals about the Western Bubble.This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA Dario Hasenstab and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

This week, we take a step back from geopolitics to explore how artificial intelligence is already reshaping our societies and our minds. From efficiency gains to cognitive decline, we reflect on how we personally use AI and why it’s so easy to fall into the traps of convenience and illusion.Drawing lessons from the social media age, we look at how AI accelerates the collapse of shared reality, fuels parasocial relationships, and chips away at our ability to think critically. With tools like Grok and Google Veo 3 making privacy a memory and manipulation effortless, the question isn’t whether AI will turn evil, but whether we’re prepared for what it’s doing to us right now.This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA Dario Hasenstab and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

In this episode, we navigate the chaos of the past week: as Trump launches airstrikes using bunker-buster bombs, supposedly to “bring peace,” we ask: what does the U.S. gain from this? And why is Europe so eager to look the other way?We also offer two public service announcements, one on the myths surrounding Iran’s nuclear program, and one on the absurdity of the West’s new 5% defence spending target. Because sometimes, cutting through the noise is more important than adding to it.This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA, Dario Hasenstab, and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

After the latest escalation between Israel and Iran, we take a step back to assess what just happened and what it means moving forward. With hundreds of Israeli missiles striking targets deep inside Iran, many are asking whether this constitutes an official act of war. But in an age where no one seems to declare war anymore, what does that even mean?We unpack the short-, medium-, and long-term logic behind Israel’s actions, and ask whether strategic brilliance is really at play—or whether the current approach is sowing the seeds for even more instability within the Israeli government. We explore how global perceptions of Israel’s military success might be masking the damage being done, both regionally and internationally. And in the background, the question looms: does this kind of attack now justify Iran seeking a nuclear weapon, even if it shouldn’t?This podcast is published with the help of RAIA NOW gUG but is an individual project between the Director of RAIA Dario Hasenstab and Balder Hageraats. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.