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Stay on point with Craigs. Keep up to date with the latest developments in financial markets and the economy.
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Investing involves risks. You aren’t guaranteed to make money and you might lose the money you started with. Any information provided is general, current at the time and not financial advice. It doesn’t take into account your particular financial situation. We don't accept liability for results of actions taken or not taken based on information provided. Before making any investment decision we recommend you seek professional assistance from an investment adviser. Visit craigsip.com.
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It’s been prediction season on Wall Street, with all the gurus consulting their crystal balls to firm up their forecasts for where the S&P 500 index will finish 2026. Let's take a closer look at how the market is expected to perform this year, how that compares with history, and how investors should think about these.
A busy week looms locally, with the highlight likely to be the latest quarterly inflation report on Friday. If it comes in above RBNZ forecasts for a 2.7% annual gain, which might this mean for the path of interest rates?
While almost every country in the world has been reducing interest rates from multi-decade highs, Japan has been doing the exact opposite. The Japanese economy isn’t as dominant as it once was, but it is critically important in terms of global financial markets, especially for foreign exchange and bond yields. We’ve seen some big moves in bond yields, with the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield rising above two per cent for the first time since 1999. We need to keep a close eye on how the landscape is changing, and watch for ripples across other markets too.
Will the OCR start to rise again this year, how might sharemarkets perform and where is the NZ dollar headed? Nobody has a perfectly working crystal ball, but its a useful process to go through to help firm up your thinking nonetheless. Despite the futility of trying to forecast where financial markets are headed, here's our contribution to the noise!
Welcome to a new year! Let's tackle an important and popular topic that every self-respecting kiwi has a strong opinion about - the housing market. Why have prices done nothing for three years, is 2026 the year of the housing market recovery, and what should prospective homeowners or investors be expecting?
There’s just three trading days to go in 2025, and that’s all. We’re pretty much at the end of 2025, so let's look back on how returns from most of the main asset classes stacked up and make a few observations for investors.
Inflation is back the target band and while it's not dead and buried, it's at least contained. However, that doesn't mean we can declare the cost-of-living crisis over. The things with inflation is that it measures the rate of change in prices, not the level of prices. Let's talk about why that matters.
Should I pay off the mortgage faster, or use that extra cash to invest? If this isn't the most common investor question, then it's definitely in the top five. The textbook, Excel spreadsheet, and your purist accountant friend are all likely to suggest paying down the mortgage. There's good reason for that, but when might it make sense to ignore the rules and do some investing on the side anyway?
Here's a fresh take on a popular episode from way back in June. We took a look at the 2025 UBS Global Family Office Report, which captured the views of 317 family office clients with an average net worth of US$2.7 billion! Attitudes to risk, governance practices, running costs, staffing and succession planning were all covered, but it’s where they put their money that interested us the most!
The last full trading week of 2025 is shaping up as an incredibly busy one right across the world. In the US, delayed jobs and inflation reports will take centre stage, despite both likely being subject to data quality issues due to the shutdown. Central banks will also be in focus, with monetary policy decisions coming from the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. The calendar is just as full here in New Zealand, with the HYEFU on Tuesday and Thursday's September quarter GDP report the likely highlights. We'll also get the final dairy auction of the year, the latest REINZ housing market report, and a fresh ANZ Business Outlook.
This year will soon draw to a close, and despite plenty of ups and down along the way it's proved to be a lucrative one for investors. Let's discuss some of the highlights and key events, before turning our attention to how 2026 will unfold. How should investors be thinking about the year ahead, and what might financial markets bring?
The focus this week will be on central bank decisions, with the main event to be the Federal Reserve on Thursday morning (NZ time). Closer to home, the labour force report for November is due across the Tasman, while the September quarter manufacturing survey will be of interest here in New Zealand.
Predicting investment returns isn’t easy. Nobody can do this with accuracy, regardless of their experience, intellect or resources. However, when the collective crystal ball gazing from some of the world’s leading investment firms is collated, it’s worth a look. US-based Horizon Actuarial has done just that with its annual survey of capital market assumptions. Here's what they found.
Wholesale interest rates increased to more than three-month highs in the wake of the final RBNZ decision of 2025. The NZ dollar also rose strongly against most trading partners, as markets speculate the central bank is done cutting the OCR. Should we worry about that, or is it a good thing the RBNZ might be done?
After a very strong period that has seen global sharemarket hit new highs, volatility has returned. This will be causing a lot of consternation among investors, particularly those who have entered the fray in recent months. However, for new investors rough markets are your friend and these are periods we should to look forward to, rather than fear.
A big week looms here in New Zealand, with the main event set to be the Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision and Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) from the Reserve Bank on Wednesday afternoon. Markets see a cut of 0.25% as a certainty, while pricing implies about a 50/50 chance of an additional cut beyond that, making the MPS forecasts important.
Last month the NZX 50 index hit a fresh record high, finally surpassing the previous peak from January 2021. It was a long time coming. Other markets recovered from their post-COVID hangover much more quickly, but we’ve taken almost five years. At first glance, this would all suggest that our market has regained all its lost ground, surpassed the previous market peak and pushed on to bigger and better things. However, that’s not quite so.
There's a lot to watch this week, including a string of delayed US economic releases. However, these might all be overshadowed by the world's most important stock. Tech heavyweight and AI poster child NVIDIA is scheduled to release its latest quarterly earnings report on Wednesday in the US.
It was a “risk-off” week for global markets, with most indices slipping as investors became more nervous about extended valuations across parts of the US market. The local NZX 50 bucked the global trend with a small rise, while the NZ dollar continued to drift lower. It fell to US$0.56 against the greenback, the lowest since just after Liberation Day in April. The currency is also the weakest since 2015 against the British pound, the lowest since 2013 against the Australian dollar and at levels we haven’t seen since 2009 against the euro!
Labour's targeted capital gains tax (CGT) announcement last week was interesting. We're yet to see the detail, but has it got some merit? Taxes, property and politics are three topics that lead to robust debate amongst many New Zealanders, so let's roll those into one and talk about this latest proposal!
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