The Market Screener

Inflation came in hot on the surface, but cooler underneath, giving markets just enough relief to keep the rally alive. March CPI rose 0.9% from the prior month, while the annual headline rate hit 3.3%, driven largely by energy, yet core inflation undershot expectations on both a monthly and yearly basis. This suggests the oil shock is biting, but not yet spreading broadly enough through the economy to force a more aggressive response from the Federal Reserve.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

The market enjoyed yesterday's burst of relief after the announcement of a two-week pause in the fighting tied to Iran. But this morning, reality is back at the door, asking whether anyone really believed this would be easy.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

This morning's rally is easy enough to explain: a two-week cease-fire between the United States and Iran, along with a pledge to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, has given investors a reason to believe the worst-case scenario may be off the table, at least for now. Stock-index futures are sharply higher, oil is falling fast, Treasury yields eased and the dollar is weaker. The VIX, Wall Street's favorite fear gauge, has dropped. Airlines, cruise operators, and other travel stocks are jumping, while energy stocks are sliding. What investors are cheering is not peace, but the possibility that the world may avoid another self-inflicted economic shock.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

Trump is threatening to devastate Iran unless a deal is reached by tonight, and he reiterated this morning that the deadline still stands. The risk of a major escalation is real. But for markets, it is beginning to look like just another ultimatum in an already crowded series.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

After spending part of the week trying to believe that the war with Iran might be moving toward some contained conclusion, investors woke up to a harsher reality: Trump's speech yesterday did not calm anyone down, far from it. Instead of hope and resolution, the market got escalation without a timetable. By Thursday morning, stock futures were falling, oil was surging, with WTI reaching a whopping $110. Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

Everyone wants the fire alarm to stop ringing. That, more than anything, is what investors are responding to as April begins. Wednesday's session is shaping up as a relief trade. Stocks are pointing higher and volatility is easing, while oil is pulling back. Markets around the world are rallying on the same hope: that the war involving Iran may be heading toward some kind of off-ramp, or at least toward a pause long enough for traders, policymakers, and regular people to catch their breath.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

The final trading day of March and of the first quarter starts on a good note, with U.S. futures rising after a report suggested Donald Trump is willing to wind down the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The coming week will test whether investors can keep pretending this is a manageable scare rather than the start of a bigger economic turn. There is labor-market data arriving in a holiday-shortened week, beginning with JOLTS job openings. There are fresh readings on home prices, consumer confidence, and Chicago business activity. There are speeches from Fed officials such as Austan Goolsbee and Michelle Bowman, as well as reports from Nike and McCormick. Markets will parse every comma for reassurance, because it is in short supply right now.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

On Wall Street, investors are bracing for a week that feels bigger than a normal turn of the calendar. Yet they remain optimistic: U.S. stocks look set to open a bit higher after the recent selloff. Oil is pushing up again, energy shares are catching a lift, aluminum producers are surging and fertilizer names are getting attention too. The second quarter starts on Wednesday: Jerome Powell is due to speak and so is John Williams. Fresh labor-market numbers are coming, capped by Friday's jobs report. Then Wall Street closes for Good Friday, which means traders have only a short window to process a week's worth of stress before the lights go out.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

Donald Trump bought himself more time on Iran. He extended the deadline for possible U.S. strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure until Monday, April 6, at 8 p.m. New York time. The White House says talks are underway and going well, and Iran has signaled that negotiations have in fact started, but its counterproposal shows how far apart the two sides still are. Tehran is asking for a halt to U.S. and Israeli strikes, recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation for war damage. The market reaction is far from enthusiastic.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

Markets are falling alongside hopes for peace: For a few days, investors were willing to believe that diplomacy might outrun escalation, but now that optimism is fading. Missiles are back in the headlines, oil is climbing again, as it appears that the United States and Iran are talking, but not quite negotiating.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

What a difference a day makes. On Wall Street, sentiment now changes so fast that journalists and commentators barely have time to rewrite the lead. U.S. stock futures are up. Oil has pulled back from its recent highs. Investors are seizing on reports that Washington has sent Iran a 15-point proposal to end the war, while mediators including Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan are trying to bring both sides together as soon as Thursday. That, at least for this morning, has been enough to lift risk appetite.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

March PMI readings are starting to show what wars eventually do, far from the battlefield: they make companies more cautious, weaken demand, and cloud decision-making. In Europe, private-sector growth slowed noticeably this month. Germany's growth eased to a three-month low. France contracted at its fastest pace since October. Britain also cooled to its weakest reading since September. These numbers suggest the Middle East conflict is already moving from geopolitical risk into everyday economic activity. PMIs in the US are due later this morning.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

Monday's trading started as a classic panic over energy risk. Investors came in fearing that the conflict tied to Iran was about to turn into a full oil shock, with all the usual consequences: higher inflation, weaker growth, fewer rate cuts, and another hit to risk assets. Then the script changed. At 7 am ET, Trump announced that strikes on Iranian energy sites would be postponed for five days: suddenly prices snapped violently in the other direction. The clearest move was in oil, which fell 11% just after the announcement, showing how much of the earlier surge had been driven by fears of imminent escalation. Futures, which had been deep in the red, also reversed sharply as traders rushed to unwind the worst-case trade. As I write these line, the S&P 500 is up 2.5%.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

The Middle East war is nearing its fourth week and the Strait of Hormuz remains a choke point with global consequences. This morning, stock futures pointed lower, volatility ticked higher, and the small-cap Russell 2000 looked especially fragile. The market is trying to process two messages at once. The first is alarming: reports say the Trump administration is considering moves as severe as occupying or blockading Iran's Kharg Island to force Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The second message is meant to calm everyone down. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has floated possible relief measures: lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea, releasing more crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and coordinating with allies such as Japan to do something similar. In other words, Washington is simultaneously helping prosecute a war and hunting for extra barrels to soften the economic backlash from that war. Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

The world's central bankers would love, just once, to have a normal week. Instead, they got a war-driven energy shock and a fresh burst of inflation anxiety. The global economy has been shoved back into a familiar trap. Energy prices are rising because violence in the Middle East is now hitting the infrastructure that keeps oil and gas flowing. And when that happens, central banks lose much of their usual room to maneuver.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

Hotter-than-expected producer prices just reminded markets that inflation is still capable of spoiling the mood. What had looked like another calm, adaptive session for risk assets turned shakier after the data, with futures slipping back into the red. The report does not settle the debate over growth or rates, but it does make the Fed's already awkward balancing act even harder.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

The market seems ready to believe a comforting little story: maybe the worst has passed. Indices bounced back yesterday and Futures on Wall Street are in the green this morning. Yet oil is still hovering around $100 a barrel, the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively constrained, and the Middle East conflict is still widening. The global economy is still confronting the sort of shock that central bankers, investors, and regular households have learned to fear for a simple reason: it spreads. Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

Oil is back near $100 a barrel as the conflict around Iran is widening. The Strait of Hormuz remains badly disrupted. And the market's old faith that every shock will somehow resolve itself by Monday morning is starting to fray. Yet stocks are set to open higher, at least for now, even if the reason is not especially convincing: investors may be taking some comfort from inflation data that came in as expected, or simply buying after a bruising selloff, despite the same ugly backdrop of expensive energy, fragile supply chains, uncertain geopolitics, and a Federal Reserve that is still being asked to fight inflation without crushing a softening economy.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

The stock market continues to be weirdly serene at the worst possible moments. Oil, by contrast, is flashing a warning that stocks still seem reluctant to read. Since the Middle East conflict escalated, equities have slipped, but not by much. In the United States, the S&P 500 is down only about 2% over the past 10 days. Europe has done worse, with the Stoxx 600 off roughly 5%, but even that is modest by the standards of a real geopolitical shock - especially when both markets were hovering near record highs. Investors, in other words, still appear to be pricing in a short war and a fairly quick return to normal.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.

To look at the indices this morning, you would think everything was under control. Most are sitting close to flat, and Wall Street futures were hovering near zero early in the day. The market's biggest question right now is whether investors are still underestimating how quickly this instability can spread through the economy. That is the backdrop for today's session, and likely for the coming week too.Hosted by Audiomeans. Visit audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite for more information.