The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

The latest Weekly Briefing covers the global outlook, financial markets and energy. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the ceasefire in the Middle East means for growth and inflation, how quickly the world economy could recover if it holds, and what happens if fighting resumes.James Reilly, a Senior Economist on our Markets team, joins to run through updated forecasts for equities and bonds, why markets have held up relatively well, and why the stock market highs expected before the war now look out of reach.Plus, in an exclusive clip from a recent client briefing, our Climate & Commodities team explain why restoring oil supply is not as simple as flicking a switch, and the constraints on refined product output.Related Iran conflict: Global macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflictWatch: How the Middle East conflict has changed the price outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-how-middle-east-conflict-has-changed-price-outlookMapping the next stage of the AI rallyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/mapping-next-stage-ai-rallyGet trial access: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/solutions/subscription-products#trial-request

The AI hype cycle shows no sign of slowing. But how much are the hundreds of billions in investment actually boosting economies, and when will that spending translate into meaningful productivity gains?In this episode, Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood discusses her new report, 'How deeply is AI taking hold in the economy?', the latest addition to Capital Economics’ analysis of AI’s global impact. In conversation with David Wilder, she separates hype from reality, covering: Which economies are benefiting most from the global AI build-out  Why recent US productivity gains are evidence of AI’s impact  If the conflict in the Middle East could disrupt the AI rollout  Whether fears of an AI-driven jobs apocalypse are justified  What the Citrini note gets wrong about AI’s macro impactRead 'How deeply is AI taking hold in the economy?': https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-deeply-ai-taking-hold-economy

Our updated macro and market forecasts assess the impact on growth and inflation – and the likely central bank response – under both baseline and adverse scenarios for the Middle East conflict. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses why the more benign scenario would deliver a negative but manageable shock to the global economy, while a more adverse outcome could tip it into outright recession.Also on the show, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory explains why gilts have been the hardest hit among G10 government bonds as tensions have escalated. She explores the sharp shift in expectations for Bank of England policy and the underlying fiscal vulnerabilities fuelling market anxiety – including the risk of a change in government leadership.Read our latest Global Economic Outlook: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/forecasting-through-fog-war-1

Pity the poor central banker. As energy prices surge, they are grappling with the trade-off between growth and inflation, while trying to communicate this all to markets without triggering an unwanted tightening in financial conditions.At the end of an unusually busy week for policy meetings, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown assess how central banks are managing this difficult task, and whether investors are right to position for rate hikes from some banks that only a few weeks ago were expected to ease policy this year.In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, they talk to David Wilder about issues including:How inflation risks in the global economy are crystallising as the conflict approaches its fourth weekWhat separates central banks, from the Bank of England and ECB to the BOJ, RBA and the Fed, in how they are likely to respondWhether interest rate cuts would come back onto the table if the fighting were to endJoin our 26th March online briefings about our new macro and market forecasts: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-global-economic-and-market-outlook-pricing-energy-shock

News of a record release of emergency oil reserves has quickly been overshadowed by images of tankers on fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Thirteen days into the conflict, tensions in the Middle East appear to be escalating rather than easing. What is the view from commodity and financial markets, and what could this mean for the global economy?Capital Economics has modelled three scenarios to assess how oil and gas supplies and prices could evolve as the conflict unfolds, and what this might mean for global growth, inflation, central bank policy and financial markets.In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing:Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley discusses how our scenarios map out potential paths for oil and gas supply and prices, depending on the duration of the conflict and the extent of damage to production and infrastructure.Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains how these scenarios could translate into different growth and inflation outcomes globally, and what they might mean for central bank policy — including what to expect from the upcoming meetings of the Fed, Bank of England, ECB and Bank of Japan.Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann explores how financial markets could respond, how far prices might rebound in the event of a ceasefire, and which trades may never fully recover.Explore all our coverage of the conflict, including our scenarios here: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflictInterested in trial access? Email us at podcast@capitaleconomics.com

Conflict in the Middle East, a surge in oil and gas prices, and a surprise drop in US payrolls – it’s been a turbulent week for the global economy.In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Capital Economics Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss what the spreading Middle East conflict and sharp spike in energy prices mean for global growth and inflation, and why the latest US jobs report may not signal a major slowdown.Later, Senior Climate and Commodities Economist Kieran Tompkins explains the scale of disruption in global oil and gas markets, whether alternative supply can offset the shock and what the longer-term implications could be for energy markets.Read all our key insight into the Middle East conflict here:https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflictGet in touch for a trial to our platform:podcast@capitaleconomics.com

Amid widening conflict in the Middle East, our economist team held an online briefing first thing Monday to tackle some of the key questions that clients have been asking. In this edited clip from that briefing, you’ll hear the team tackle issues, including:The extent of disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the implications for oil and gas prices;The point at which rising oil prices would force central banks to slow or abandon policy easing;The dollar as a safe haven currency in this time of geopolitical upheaval;How this conflict could shape the economic outlook for the GCC economies;The likelihood that a change of leadership in Tehran could open the way for a deal with the US.With: Jennifer McKeown (Chief Global Economist), William Jackson (Chief EM Economist), David Oxley (Chief Climate & Commodities Economist), Jonas Goltermann (Deputy Chief Markets Economist). Note: This client briefing was held at 1000 GMT/1800 SGT on Monday, 2nd MarchSee our dedicated Iran conflict page below for more key analysis, and contact us at podcast@capitaleconomics.com to find out about access. https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflict

Is China’s latest Five-Year Plan about to reset its economic model and tackle the imbalances weighing on both the domestic and global economy?Speculation always builds ahead of a new Five-Year Plan. But this time, the stakes feel higher. With growth slowing, debt risks lingering and external tensions elevated, could this Plan mark a genuine turning point?That is what Julian Evans-Pritchard will be watching for as the National People’s Congress opens in Beijing on Thursday. On The Weekly Briefing, he joins Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing to talk to David Wilder about the outlook for China’s domestic and external imbalances and to address the key questions, not least how this adjustment will proceed, how willing its trading partners will remain to absorb China's goods surplus and whether this all risks tipping the world into crisis?Elsewhere in the episode, Megan Fisher from our Commodities team revisits the cocoa price boom she had long warned was unsustainable. Now that prices have collapsed, she sifts through the fallout to explain what comes next and whether chocoholics are likely to see any relief.Events and analysis referenced in this episodeChina NPC Drop-In https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/china-drop-key-takeaways-npc-and-new-five-year-planUK Spring Statement Drop-Inhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/uk-drop-chancellors-spring-statement-fiscal-signals-political-risks-market-implicationsUS non-farm payrolls previewhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-employment-report-preview/health-care-likely-be-key-driver-payrolls-again

The Supreme Court has finally ruled on Donald Trump's tariffs with an opinion that the president has no right to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. So what happens now?Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss the implications of this legal ruling for the US economy, for Federal Reserve policy and for financial markets. In their conversation with David Wilder, Stephen and Jonas address key issues, including:How the White House could rebuild its tariff regime – and rebuild it quicklyWhat happens when billions of dollars in tariff refunds flow back into US company accounts Why signs of resurgent inflationary pressures are narrowing the room for Fed rate cutsHow the bond market is responding to the Supreme Court newsWhy the stock market rally has stalled, and whether this news could get it going again.Related readingIEEPA ruling unlikely to pull PCE inflation back to 2%https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-economics-weekly/ieepa-ruling-unlikely-pull-pce-inflation-back-2Stock market rotation is a warning of trouble aheadhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/stock-market-rotation-warning-trouble-aheadSC rules that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegalhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-rapid-response/sc-rules-trumps-ieepa-tariffs-are-illegal

From the lows of December retail sales to the highs of January payrolls, recent US data has sent mixed signals. But the economy remains in relatively good shape, argues Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown on the latest episode of the Capital Economics Weekly Briefing. He explores why the idea of a “K-shaped” economy may be overstated, what markets are missing about the productivity growth upturn, and the chances of much lower rates from a Kevin Warsh-led Fed. Also on the show, as Keir Starmer’s government reels from one of its toughest weeks yet, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory assesses what a change of leadership could mean for the UK economy and financial markets, but also why the long-term growth outlook may not be as bleak as recent headlines suggest.Related reading:AI already making a big contribution to US productivity growthWhy we still believe in the AI rally, and the S&P 500Would a stock market crash cause a global recession?Can China’s trade surplus rise further?Get in touch at podcast@capitaleconomics.com to learn more. 

In this week’s episode, Neil Shearing talks to Vicky Redwood and John Higgins about a tumultuous week in equity markets, how AI is creating winners and losers, and whether there’s any evidence that AI is starting to lift productivity growth in economies. AI already making a big contribution to productivity growthChina’s AI rollout could rival the US

This weekend’s Japanese election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in years. As Sanae Takaichi, newly installed leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, seeks to cement her mandate, government bond yields and the yen have been moving in opposite directions amid headlines warning of plans to open the fiscal floodgates.But are markets really responding to fears of runaway spending, or to the reality that Japan is finally emerging from decades of deflation? Capital Economics’ Head of Asia-Pacific, Marcel Thieliant, and Head of Asia-Pacific Markets, Thomas Mathews, join the show to unpack what the return of inflation means for the Japanese economy, for the Bank of Japan, for government bonds and for the outcome of this weekend’s vote.Also on the show: a new US-India deal to slash eye-watering reciprocal tariff rates is the latest in a flurry of trade agreements from the Modi administration. Shilan Shah, our India research lead, explains what these deals mean for India’s economic outlook – and whether the country can truly wean itself off Russian oil.Read our key analysis about the return of inflation to Japan's economy.For Capital Economics clients: Japan Drop-In: Takaichi’s election gamble – Fiscal risks, market consequences

Kevin Warsh has been named Donald Trump’s pick to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown, and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann come together for a special episode of The Weekly Briefing to address the key questions raised by this announcement, including:Whether Warsh would deliver the kind of monetary easing Trump has been calling for;How Warsh's call to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet would work, and what that could mean for Treasury yields;The implications for the dollar following an extraordinary week in currency markets.

Was this the week that shattered the western alliance? Not so fast, says Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing. Despite the strains of a Trump presidency, deep economic dependencies on the US suggest that talk of a new international order is overblown. Neil cuts through the Davos rhetoric to explain the reality of the current global macro landscape.Later in the show, as the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine approaches, Senior EM Economist Liam Peach explains what many get wrong about Russia’s economy. He explores how initial resilience has finally given way to weakness, but also why this shift is unlikely to force Putin into meaningful concessions to end the war.Referenced in this episode:Analysis hub: Japan's reinflationary reawakeningDrop-In: The shape of the fractured world in 2026EM Financial Risk Indicators

Can you pitch yourself as a responsible global stakeholder at the same time as running a $1.2 trillion trade surplus? That’s China’s big global macro play, and it’s one that Neil Shearing thinks China is going to struggle to pull off. The Group Chief Economist of Capital Economics is on The Weekly Briefing to explain what that mammoth trade imbalance means for advanced and emerging economies in a fracturing global economy, including why some EMs are doing quite well as a result of all of the geoeconomic ructions.Also on the show, there’s an awful lot of noise around the race for AI leadership between the US and China, but how to separate out the hype from the reality? China Economist Leah Fahy’s new report sizes up the progress that Chinese AI has made since the launch of DeepSeek a year ago, and the impact that Beijing’s race for tech supremacy will have on the country’s economic outlook.Six non-consensus calls for China for 2026China’s AI rollout could rival the USDrop-In: The shape of the fractured world in 2026The economic and market impact of AI

The first trading week of 2026 has been a whirlwind of geopolitical shocks and big economic developments. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is back on The Weekly Briefing to break down an historic start to the year, including:The Maduro capture: Neil provides much-needed macro and market context behind the news of Nicolás Maduro’s capture in Venezuela.AI and US productivity impacts: Whether the "stunning" Q3 US productivity numbers suggest massive AI investments are moving the needle for the US economy – and whether other economies will soon start feeling the benefit.The labour market and the Fed: A review of the December payrolls report and what it could mean for the Fed.Also on the show: David Oxley and Kieran Tompkins from our Commodities team join us to make sense of a volatile week in the oil market. They discuss the reality behind expectations for a surge in Venezuelan oil flows onto the global market.

This recovery in commercial real estate is unique. Across the US, Europe, and Asia, it has been defined by persistent weakness in both investment and prices. On this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief Real Estate Economist Kiran Raichura and Senior Real Estate Economist Amy Wood join David Wilder to discuss whether this weakness will persist through 2026 and where investors can still find outperformance. Kiran and Amy address:Why higher-for-longer interest rates remain the primary determinant of returns for most clients.What is required to bridge the gap between seller and buyer price expectations.Which traditional sectors offer the best returns, and which alternatives will provide significant outperformance.Why private credit markets represent the greatest downside risk to commercial real estate in 2026.Further reading:Key themes for global commercial real estate in 2026Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q4 2025)

The final major week of the year in macro is in the books. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins The Weekly Briefing to explain why the latest US inflation report should be taken with a “bucketful of salt,” while reviewing the year-end moves from the BoE, BoJ, and ECB. He reviews the latest moves from the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the ECB, and talks about why a growing Chinese trade surplus has a corresponding deficit that could present a key risk to global macro stability.Plus, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses one of our most prominent calls for 2026: why, despite recent wobbles, the AI-driven equities bubble will continue to inflate.

In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing podcast, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown outline Capital Economics' expectations for 2026.They tackle the key drivers and risks in the year ahead, examining how the AI narrative will unfold, why the US will be a notable outperformer, how much further China’s exporters can take market share and why a new Fed chair probably won’t deliver the rate cuts that Donald Trump wants.Learn more: The World in 2026 homepage

The year began amid optimism that Europe was finally prepared to meet its economic potential. But as the end of 2025 approaches, how much has actually changed in the European story of weak growth and political fragmentation? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing join David Wilder to what has – and hasn’t – changed in the European outlook.They explore Europe’s challenges in navigating an increasingly fractured global economy, including whether its industries are equipped to handle competitive pressures from the US and China, the risks stemming from elevated public debt, and why the urgency to ramp up defence spending isn’t being met by action.Plus, in a clip from a recent client briefing, EM economists Liam Peach and William Jackson provide an update on the war in Ukraine and the latest White House efforts to broker a ceasefire.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeDrop-In: The World in 2026 - The global macro and market outlookSpotlight: The future of EuropeRead: ECB interest rates cuts doing little to boost growthWatch: China and Russia – The limits of the “no limits” partnershipRead: Russia & China: a “no limits” partnership with limits