Carnegie Politika Podcast

Over the last year, Russia has increased the front of its hybrid attacks against Ukraine’s European allies. From mysterious fires to an armed drone at Leipzig airport, Russia is probing European boundaries under the shroud of plausible deniability. How can Europe respond to this growing threat, and is it possible to set guardrails to prevent Russia from furthering its hybrid assault?

Russia embarked on its first parliamentary elections since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine with ramped up repression and an emptied political space amid the ongoing war. Even so, these tightly controlled elections did not go exactly according to plan. What do the results mean? How important are elections in the current Russian political system? What’s different in the newly elected Duma.Check out the Vlast newsletter here.

Shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia’s northern neighbors—Finland and Sweden—decided to join NATO in order to strengthen their security vis-a-vis a belligerent Moscow. In the fifth year of the Russia-Ukraine war, the risks are nevertheless on Europe's doorstep, and some argue that Russia may even launch a kinetic attack against its neighbors in the not-so-distant future—including against Finland. How is Finland responding to these risks? How has NATO membership contributed to Finnish security? Should Europe add diplomacy to its toolkit for dealing with a rogue Russia?Check out the Foreign Affairs piece by Hiski Haukkala and Samuel Charap here.

Despite its public image as a Sino-Russian answer to NATO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a very different beast. Each member state has its own reason for being part of such a vast organization. China uses it as a means of exerting influence, Russia uses it as a tribune for its foreign policy squabbles with the West, and Central Asian countries see it as a source of power and also a chance to portray themselves at home as important global players. As it turns 25, what has the SCO achieved? What are the stumbling blocks to increasing cooperation? Is the organization destined to be dominated by China?

Amid mounting rumors that a new mobilization wave in Russia will follow the State Duma elections in September, there are a lot of questions over Russian military recruitment. How successful is it? How deep is the well of Russian manpower, and what are the Kremlin’s most efficient tools for tapping into it? How can independent experts outside of Russia access and credibly analyze recruitment data in a country that guards all war-related information with a veil of secrecy and censorship? Check out Janis's Substack here.