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Macro Minutes - RBC Capital Markets macro and market strategy series – explores the latest financial market and economic developments. Listen today to hear high conviction insights from RBC’s desk strategists and research analysts.
88 Episodes
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As central banks chart divergent paths into 2026, regional opportunities and risks emerge across markets. Join our rates experts from the US, Canada, Europe, and APAC on a world tour breaking down what policy divergence means for bond yields, inflation risks, relative market performance, and how to navigate the year ahead. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Robert Thompson (Research), Australian Macro Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
RBC BlueBay CEO Eric Gerth discusses the asset manager's $700B global growth, industry consolidation drivers, and the strategic importance of scale, culture, and AI investment in shaping the future of financial services.
With the Fed signaling meaningful changes to their policy stance, what will be the cascading effects across US rates, equities, and global FX markets in what promises to be a pivotal period for investors? In this episode, we discuss the interconnected challenges of monetary policy pivots, earnings expectations heading into 2026, and the looming Supreme Court decision on US tariffs that could reshape global trade dynamics.Participants: Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity StrategyRichard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
The US government shutdown is the latest in a long list of developments in 2025 that has injected heightened uncertainty into macro and markets. There are some known unknowns about how this will impact the economic data but there are also lots of unknown unknowns. In this episode, we will shed light on what it means for the economy, Fed, and bond market.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy Izaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy Michael Reid (Economics), Senior US Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
We delve in the key macro themes driving monetary policy decisions and discuss when/if policy easing cycles will re-start, how fast they could proceed, and how low terminal rates might go. As the outlook for global central bank policies continues to evolve, particularly the Fed, it could have far-reaching implications for global asset markets.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy): Head of North American Rates Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy): Head of US Rates Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
In this episode, we explore how central banks in Australia, the UK, and the US are responding to evolving inflation dynamics and labor market shifts. From the Bank of England's hawkish cuts to the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious easing, and the Federal Reserve's balancing act amid market pressures, we delve into the similarities, differences, and uncertainties shaping monetary policy decisions across these regions. Participants: Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
In this episode, fiscal loosening has been a feature across many geographies and is getting an increasing amount of attention from financial markets. In this episode, we look at the similarities and differences in fiscal approaches, and how markets are reacting in the US, Euro-area, UK and Canada.Participants:Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
In this episode, Elsa, Peter, and Blake discuss the weakening of the USD, the outlook for the Fed and UST markets as well as the cross implications of both developments on the ECB and European rates.Participants: Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
US policy uncertainty is sky high. Global investors own a lot of US assets, mostly unhedged currency exposure, and the natural implication is that the collision of large exposures and elevated uncertainty could have a large impact on global capital flows, asset markets, and currency hedging activity.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyRichard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
Strategies promising to remove human emotion from investing were once niche. Now a growing number of institutions are finding them valuable. Where will QIS go next?Participants:Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEASolenn Le Floch (Desk Strategy), Managing Director, Global Markets SolutionsAkilesh Eswaran (Desk Strategy), Global Head of QIS and EMEA Head of Equity TradingSamkit Tated (Desk Strategy), Director of QIS Structuring.* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
Both the Bank of England (BoE) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered 25bps rate cuts at their latest meetings but with very differing messages. Whereas the RBA delivered a ‘very dovish’ cut the BoE was much more cautious and in this episode we unpack the reasons for that differing approach and what it means for each going forward. Participants:Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
The Canadian federal election produced the third straight Liberal minority government. The pre-election campaign incorporated sizable new fiscal measures. In this episode we unpack what it means for the economy, Bank of Canada policy, issuance, and the rates market.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
Today we break down the trade war, the dollar, equities, rates, earnings season, and what it all means for markets—plus a quick dive into Treasury refunding.Participants:Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
It is a unique time for economies and financial markets - political decisions are increasingly driving economic outcomes and asset markets rather than the other way around. Today's episode unpacks what it means for US & Canada and the implications for equity markets. Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
Today is 11-April-2025 and my name is Peter Schaffrik. We have labelled this edition ‘Chaos Theory’ and I trust most listeners do not need and explanation as to what inspired us. Market swings have been very large on the back of the back and forth in the tariffs culminating in a 90 day pause being announced this week. Helping us to bring some order into the chaos, I am joined by Blake Gwinn, RBC’s head of US rates strategy and Elsa Lignos, Head of FX strategy. Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
A twin resurgence is reshaping European financial markets. Bank equities and AT1 bonds are both surging—can the momentum last?Participants:Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEAAnke Reingen (Desk Strategy), Global Co-Head of Financials ResearchMarc Sanchez Roger (Desk Strategy), Head of European Financials Credit Sector* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
Explore how Trump's policies are reshaping global defense. Experts from RBC Capital Markets analyze the economic and strategic shifts in UK, European, and US defense spending.Participants:Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEAPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Chief European Macro StrategistKen Herbert (Research), Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
The butterfly effect is where a change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere. Indeed, US trade policies are having significant intended and unintended consequences for various countries that is impacting fiscal policy and politics and potentially and monetary policy and the bond market.Participants:Jason Daw(Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
The signals are mixed, but the outlook for the U.K economy is uncertain at best, while geopolitical risks add further potential volatility. So why is the U.K. banking sector looking forward to another strong year?Participants:Janet Wilkinson Head of Global Markets Flow Sales EMEAKofi Oteng Head of Flow Rate Sales EMEA Benjamin Toms Director European Banks Equity Research* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
The degree to which lingering tariff uncertainty impacts both market and general economic outcomes remains unclear. Economies are evolving regardless, with Europe and Canada seeing some improvement, while US exceptionalism is perhaps fading. Issuance and regulatory developments have brought swap spreads - the difference between swap rates and bond yields of the same term - back into focus. Persistent bond weakening in North America is now in question.Participants:Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
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