Macro Minutes

In this European edition of Macro Minutes, we discuss the rise in energy prices in the wake of the Middle East conflict brings back painful memories of the 2022 energy shock for Europe. We dissect what is similar and what is different, quantify some impacts on inflation and growth estimates, and map a path forward for the ECB and BoE.Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistGeorge Moran (Desk Strategy), European Macro Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Concerns over the spending and investment circularity of the AI Ecosystem between chip makers, hyperscalers and data centers has shifted to a New Circularity, driving credit spreads wider. The New Circularity was initiated by new AI apps hitting software equity valuations and credit spreads, which in turn is feeding into concerns over vehicles exposed to that widening, namely the Broadly Syndicated loan market, the Private Credit market, BDCs and even Insurance Companies. Valuation declines have in turn driven redemption requests which has placed more pressure on credit spreadsParticipants:Jason Mandel (Desk Strategy), Head of Leveraged Finance Desk StrategyJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategySteven Denny (Desk Strategy), Head of US IG Credit Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The US Tariff framework is changing. China is preparing for its National People’s Congress. Latin America is entering a period of political volatility. We give our take on the current EM environment.Participants:Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistAbbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro StrategistDaria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistLuis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Over the past 6-12 months Treasury yields are rangebound, gold surged, but the USD has weakened. Despite the de-dollarization narrative, investors have continued to accumulate USD denominated assets, but with a cautious bias (i.e. hedging). To unpack these complexities you will hear insights from Blake Gwinn (Head of US Rates Strategy), Richard Cochinos (FX Strategy), and Chris Louney (Natural Gas and Gold Strategist).Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistMegum Muhic (Desk Strategy), UK Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In the first episode of our new monthly ‘European Edition’ we talk about political instability in the UK and its impact on markets. Despite the uncertainties, we still see value in the short end of the UK Gilt curve, also versus the EUR market. We also outline that we see the ECB on hold for the rest of the year despite inflation being below the 2% target and why we think the EUR yield curve steepening is far from over.Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistMegum Muhic (Desk Strategy), UK Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

There seems to be a confluence of factors that have conspired to be the perfect storm for gold. Prices gains have been parabolic, the recent correction severe, but dip buyers arrived in force to support the market. Is there still a golden opportunity in the shiny metal?Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyChristopher Louney (Research), Gold & Natural Gas Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

We are introducing our new EM Pulse publication, highlighting our views across Asia, EMEA, and LatAm in 2026. This episode features discussions from our positive view on CNY and China’s outlook to why we think the South African rand’s positive momentum can continue and the role of FX carry in the outperformance of LatAm FX this year.Participants:Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistAbbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro StrategistDaria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistLuis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Geopolitical tensions are on the rise again and have lately filtered into markets more clearly. Global bond yields started rising again, the yield curve steepened from both ends and the USD is on the back foot again. Meanwhile, the JGB market is under pressure and JPY worries are mounting.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyRichard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

As central banks chart divergent paths into 2026, regional opportunities and risks emerge across markets. Join our rates experts from the US, Canada, Europe, and APAC on a world tour breaking down what policy divergence means for bond yields, inflation risks, relative market performance, and how to navigate the year ahead. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Robert Thompson (Research), Australian Macro Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

RBC BlueBay CEO Eric Gerth discusses the asset manager's $700B global growth, industry consolidation drivers, and the strategic importance of scale, culture, and AI investment in shaping the future of financial services.

With the Fed signaling meaningful changes to their policy stance, what will be the cascading effects across US rates, equities, and global FX markets in what promises to be a pivotal period for investors? In this episode, we discuss the interconnected challenges of monetary policy pivots, earnings expectations heading into 2026, and the looming Supreme Court decision on US tariffs that could reshape global trade dynamics.Participants: Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity StrategyRichard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The US government shutdown is the latest in a long list of developments in 2025 that has injected heightened uncertainty into macro and markets. There are some known unknowns about how this will impact the economic data but there are also lots of unknown unknowns. In this episode, we will shed light on what it means for the economy, Fed, and bond market.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy Izaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy Michael Reid (Economics), Senior US Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

We delve in the key macro themes driving monetary policy decisions and discuss when/if policy easing cycles will re-start, how fast they could proceed, and how low terminal rates might go. As the outlook for global central bank policies continues to evolve, particularly the Fed, it could have far-reaching implications for global asset markets.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy): Head of North American Rates Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy): Head of US Rates Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this episode, we explore how central banks in Australia, the UK, and the US are responding to evolving inflation dynamics and labor market shifts. From the Bank of England's hawkish cuts to the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious easing, and the Federal Reserve's balancing act amid market pressures, we delve into the similarities, differences, and uncertainties shaping monetary policy decisions across these regions. Participants: Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this episode, fiscal loosening has been a feature across many geographies and is getting an increasing amount of attention from financial markets. In this episode, we look at the similarities and differences in fiscal approaches, and how markets are reacting in the US, Euro-area, UK and Canada.Participants:Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this episode, Elsa, Peter, and Blake discuss the weakening of the USD, the outlook for the Fed and UST markets as well as the cross implications of both developments on the ECB and European rates.Participants: Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

US policy uncertainty is sky high. Global investors own a lot of US assets, mostly unhedged currency exposure, and the natural implication is that the collision of large exposures and elevated uncertainty could have a large impact on global capital flows, asset markets, and currency hedging activity.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyRichard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Strategies promising to remove human emotion from investing were once niche. Now a growing number of institutions are finding them valuable. Where will QIS go next?Participants:Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEASolenn Le Floch (Desk Strategy), Managing Director, Global Markets SolutionsAkilesh Eswaran (Desk Strategy), Global Head of QIS and EMEA Head of Equity TradingSamkit Tated (Desk Strategy), Director of QIS Structuring.* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Both the Bank of England (BoE) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered 25bps rate cuts at their latest meetings but with very differing messages. Whereas the RBA delivered a ‘very dovish’ cut the BoE was much more cautious and in this episode we unpack the reasons for that differing approach and what it means for each going forward. Participants:Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The Canadian federal election produced the third straight Liberal minority government. The pre-election campaign incorporated sizable new fiscal measures. In this episode we unpack what it means for the economy, Bank of Canada policy, issuance, and the rates market.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts