Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

Teams playing on Thursday after a Sunday overtime game are 7-29 against the spread since 2000. I’m not a trends guy, so here’s exactly how I work through a stat like this, step by step: checking how it’s counted, finding the right comparison, looking past the win-loss record, testing the explanation, and asking whether the market’s already on it. This one held up better than most. Here’s why you still shouldn’t bet it blindly, and I want your theory on why it happens. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The Trend 1:10 - Why Most Trends Are Noise 2:06 - Is There A Real Reason? 3:08 - Rebuild It Yourself 4:47 - Find The Right Comparison 7:09 - Look Past The Win/Loss Record 10:26 - Test The Explanation 12:54 - How Many Other Trends Are There? 14:40 - Is The Market Already On It? 17:09 - Sponsored by ProphetX 18:35 - What I Think About This One 19:26 - What To Do Next Time Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Trading sports event contracts involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. You should consider whether trading is appropriate for you in light of your financial circumstances. ProphetX is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Full risk disclosure available at prophetx.co/risk. #NFL #ThursdayNightFootball #SportsBetting #BettingTrends #AgainstTheSpread Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NFL Week 3 delivered chaos, the Steelers upset the 2-0 Bengals in Pittsburgh, Josh Allen and the Bills survived five turnovers to beat the Chargers, and Drake Maye's turnover problems continued in New England. Over in golf, Team USA pulled off a historic comeback at the Presidents Cup, erasing a four-point deficit to win 17-13 at Medinah for their 11th straight title. Plus reaction to the MLB regular season wrapping up and the postseason field taking shape. On the industry side, a federal appeals court dealt a major blow to prediction markets, ruling that Ohio and Tennessee can regulate sports-event contracts under state gambling law, a decision that deepens a growing circuit split likely headed for the Supreme Court. A new investigation also revealed how one major sportsbook's VIP program rewarded a reporter posing as a problem gambler, inviting him into their VIP program within 24 hours of a night spent chasing losses. And in Brazil, the president signed a measure banning sports betting deposits and advertising days before the country's election, prompting backlash from top football clubs who rely on betting sponsorships. Plus, a look at using betting partners to get comfortable with bigger bet sizes, and the Chopping Block. Jacob is joined by Rob, Geoff, and Isaac Rose-Berman, in studio this week, to break it all down. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, Geoff Fienberg, and Isaac Rose-Berman 2:26 - NFL Week 3 19:50 - Other Weekend Recap 30:31 - Prediction Markets Lose In Ohio 40:19 - Sportsbook VIP Exposé 50:39 - Reading Your Comments 1:05:19 - Using Betting Partners To Scale Up 1:10:47 - Brazil Bans Betting 1:22:51 - Who Actually Bought GRP's Survivor Entry? 1:33:24 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #CircleBack #CirclesOff #PredictionMarkets #NFLWeek3 #ResponsibleGaming #Ohio #Brazil #PresidentsCup Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Thon Misser joins Off Script to break down the NBA season simulator he's been rebuilding this offseason, how it prices different tiers of players, and what changes after a summer that saw the Raptors add Kawhi Leonard and the Sixers bring in LeBron James. From there the conversation moves into the latest push to bring margin trading to prediction markets and what that means for how those markets get used, from pricing futures to gauging elections. Plus a mailbag stacked with viewer questions, this week's Grinds My Gears rants, and the usual EV Moves of the Week to close things out. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Thon - https://x.com/ThonMisser OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Work In Progress Check 10:56 - Breaking News 20:14 - Mailbag: Your Questions 28:46 - What Grinds My Gears 34:57 - +EV Moves Of The Week Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #NBA #NBABetting #SportsBetting #CirclesOff #OffScript #KawhiLeonard #LeBronJames #PredictionMarkets Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Can sharps actually beat a prediction market maker? Chris "Flup" Dierkes breaks down what market makers really do, why new exchanges need in-house liquidity, how auto-movers and traders manage directional risk when the flow hits one side, and what the CFTC's proposed bona fide market making rules could mean for the role. He also takes on the biggest misconceptions, including whether market makers can see who they're trading against. Recorded at BetBash, Jacob Gramegna sits down with Chris Dierkes, Pro Sports Bettor and Trader, for a look at the other side of the counter on prediction markets, and why Flup thinks rebate and volume incentive deals should be posted publicly. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Chris - https://x.com/Flupnolide OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #MarketMaking #CirclesOff #BetBash Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NFL Week 2 sports betting reaction gets broken down live on Circle Back, alongside a New York Times report alleging a sportsbook used an AI model to score customers by expected losses and aim bonuses and free bets at them, which the sportsbook disputes. Is +EV overrated? We debate expected value betting and whether the hype matches the results. We also react to Vanderbilt vs NC State and what's being called the biggest UFC upset ever, then run through Chopping Block quick hits including the Off Script debut and a comedy tier list. Jacob Gramegna hosts today's Circle Back and is joined by Rob Pizzola, CEO of The Hammer and pro sports bettor, and Jason Cooper, host of The Hammer Daily, to break it all down. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Jason - https://x.com/TakesByJ OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Jason Cooper 1:19 - NFL Week 2 28:46 - Other Weekend Recap 40:28 - Sportsbooks Using AI To Target Losers? 50:26 - NFL Bans Prediction Markets 55:26 - "Just Bet -124s That Are -800 Everywhere Else" 1:30:40 - Is +EV Overrated? 1:17:51 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #CircleBack #CirclesOff #NFLWeek2 #UFC #PlusEV Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices