Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski

Find me on Substack!Tobias Carlisle is founder and portfolio manager of Acquirer’s Funds managing two deep value ETFs, acclaimed author of five investment books including his newest Soldier of Fortune blending Warren Buffett and Sun Tzu’s strategic wisdom, and host of the popular Value After Hours podcast.Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/3:00 - Tobias shares his unique upbringing in Australian outback where school ended in grade 10 and included animal husbandry—learning to shear sheep and work cattle in what he calls a formative contrast to his later academic life at boarding school.6:00 - Transition to law career: Started at a national law firm in April 2000, peak of dot-com bubble. “I missed out on all of the fun parties on the way up and I just saw the carnage on the way down,” which opened his eyes to the importance of cash flow over hype.9:00 - Early exposure to activist investing: Witnessed corporate raiders targeting dot-coms with cash on balance sheets, killing the business and liquidating or using as platform for acquisitions. This low-downside, high-complexity approach fascinated him.14:00 - The telecom case study: Worked with two entrepreneurs who turned $100,000 each into a $600 million exit by building dark fiber infrastructure and data centers. “They were the best telecom lawyers in Australia and they weren’t lawyers”—emphasizing the power of combining financial, technological, and regulatory understanding.28:00 - Philosophy behind Soldier of Fortune: Explores Warren Buffett as risk-taker rather than risk-avoider, connecting his strategic thinking to Sun Tzu’s Art of War. The book examines 13 laws of strategic advantage.45:00 - Discussion of key laws: “Attack weakness with strength” and “seize the initiative”—Buffett’s approach to investing in moments when he has maximum advantage, like deploying capital during the 2008 crisis.1:08:00 - The surfing analogy: Experienced investors are “not only on the right wave, but at the right spot on that wave”—getting positioning and timing right rather than just working harder.1:09:00 - Impact on his own investing: “Shot selection becomes so much better the longer that you do something...if I’m just a little bit more patient, I know that there is a bigger wave coming.”1:11:30 - Definition of success: “A happy, healthy family and time with my kids...watching them play sport. That’s really my definition of success.”Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Drew Cohen is the founder of Speedwell Research and a portfolio manager at Davidson Kahn Capital Management, who uncovers competitive advantages by reading entire company histories spanning decades of transcripts and annual reports.The episode is sponsored by TenzingMEMO — the AI-powered market intelligence platform I use daily for smarter company analysis. Code BILLIONS gets you an extended trial + 10% off.https://www.tenzingmemo.com/3:00 - Drew describes his early money attraction, collecting dollar bills at age five and discovering the power of interest at his bar mitzvah, leading his father to introduce him to stocks.5:00 - First investing experiences: buying leveraged ETFs at 14, making $100 in two minutes, then immediately losing $100, learning markets can create and destroy wealth quickly.8:00 - Exploration of technical analysis through Dow Theory and Elliott Wave, realizing these pattern-based approaches kept adding rules to fit outcomes, concluding they were “BS” and abandoning them.10:00 - Discovering “The Snowball” at 17 changed everything, learning Buffett’s lessons without having to lose more money personally through trial and error.15:00 - Deep research methodology explained: reading every transcript and annual report since IPO to find patterns that map onto future transitions and understand how companies behave under different conditions.20:00 - Meta example: three instances of monetization fears (desktop to mobile, feed to stories, stories to Reels) that all proved unfounded when studying company history.23:00 - Copart case study: finding one 2004 earnings call where they mentioned market share, crucial data point never discussed again but essential for understanding current competitive position.35:00 - Discussion of reading as filtering mechanism: eliminates 95% of companies immediately, leaving only truly interesting businesses worth deeper analysis.45:00 - Career trajectory: Goldman Sachs sell-side to Capital Group buy-side, learning institutional constraints firsthand before founding independent research firm.55:00 - Sell-side research revelation: buy ratings are relative to coverage universe, not absolute recommendations, creating fundamental misunderstanding of analyst intentions.57:00 - Buy-side problems: short-term performance pressures, peer judgment, window dressing (adding Nvidia when it’s hot to satisfy clients), non-investment prerogatives polluting decisions.59:00 - Buffett’s genius: structuring Berkshire with long-term capital he controlled, avoiding quarterly performance pressures that would have produced completely different results.1:00:23 - Success definition: doing what you want each day without trading tomorrow for today, echoing Naval’s concept that you’re retired when you stop deferring gratification.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Scroll down, and find the earlier 3 episodes of 100 Year Thinkers.Matt Zeigler and I had the privilege of hosting Robert Hagstrom (The Warren Buffett Way) and Chris Mayer (100 Baggers) for a special 100-Year Thinkers Edition of the Excess Returns Podcast.Two legendary investors and authors. One hour packed with timeless wisdom on long-term thinking and wealth creation. This is the conversation we’ve been wanting to have—and we think you’ll find it as valuable as we did.Available now on Excess Returns Podcast and Talking Billions. 🎧I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.The 100 Year Thinkers: Long-Term Compounding in a Short-Term WorldChris’ New Bookhttps://shop.generalsemantics.org/pro...Robert’s Book: Investing: The Last Liberal Arthttps://www.amazon.com/Investing-Libe...When Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer sit down together, the conversation goes far beyond stock picking. Join them, along with Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explore how investors think, how language shapes decision making, and why many of the debates dominating today’s markets miss the deeper point. Drawing on ideas from general semantics, mental models, and long-term capital compounding, the discussion reframes market concentration, AI, valuation, and risk through a more durable lens built for long-horizon investors.Topics covered in this episodeWhy high valuation multiples are not automatically a sign of overvaluationWhat return on invested capital really tells you about long-term compoundingThe difference between describing a business and understanding the business itselfMarket concentration, index construction, and why benchmarks can mislead investorsThe idea of time binding and what investors can learn from history without overfitting itMap versus territory and how financial statements can obscure underlying business realityAI investing, capital allocation, and separating durable businesses from speculative narrativesWhy many valuation debates are really disagreements about time horizonHow language, labels, and mental shortcuts create overconfidence in investingWhat it takes for a company to compound capital over decades, not yearsPodcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Braden Dennis is the 30-year-old founder and CEO of Fiscal AI, who scaled an AI-powered financial research platform from a frustration-driven side project to a venture-backed company serving over 150,000 users with institutional-grade data analytics that democratizes investment research previously accessible only through expensive platforms like Bloomberg and FactSet.Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/3:00 - Braden shares his middle-class Toronto upbringing and early realization that he was a "math kid," choosing engineering for maximum career optionality while observing that family members who invested aggressively, not those who simply earned the most, achieved the greatest financial success.6:00 - The crucial insight: capitalism isn't zero-sum, and asset ownership is the key to benefiting from the system. Braden emphasizes that the barrier to owning assets is lower than ever, yet many feel cheated by not participating.9:00 - The origin story of Fiscal AI: Built as a side project while working at a venture capital firm, Braden needed better tools for portfolio monitoring. After two years of development and hitting 1,000 users, he made the leap to full-time entrepreneurship despite pushback from friends and family.15:00 - The "aha moment": Seeing Nvidia's revenue growth in real-time data visualization changed everything. "I could just watch the revenue go up, and I was like, okay, this thing is clearly a buy," demonstrating the power of visual data interaction.30:00 - Why Fiscal AI exists: Traditional financial terminals cost $20,000-$30,000 annually and use outdated 1980s interfaces. Fiscal AI brings institutional-grade data to everyone at accessible price points with modern design.45:00 - The AI transformation57:00 - Powerful example: Booking.com vs. Airbnb revenue recovery post-COVID reveals how narratives differ from data reality - most would assume Airbnb recovered faster, but data shows otherwise.1:04:00 - On success: Braden battles his forward-focused personality, measuring success by building a sustainable business where shareholders and employees (all equity holders) achieve exceptional outcomes, not just the founder.1:07:00 - Major announcement: Fiscal AI now offers 10 years of historical data on their free plan, more than any competitor, removing barriers for investors at every level.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Find me on Substack.Gautam Baid, CFA, is the founder and managing partner of Stellar Wealth Partners India Fund and internationally bestselling author of The Joys of Compounding, who has dedicated over two decades to mastering patient, quality-focused value investing.Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/3:00 - Gautam introduces his six-pillar compounding framework beyond finance: positive thoughts, good health, good habits, wealth, knowledge, and goodwill, explaining how achieving financial independence in 2018 crystallized his understanding that "in life you get what you compound for on a daily basis."8:00 - Deep dive into compounding positive thoughts through avoiding negative emotions and toxic people while associating with high-quality minds, celebrating small wins to create momentum toward long-term goals.12:00 - Health habits discussion: consume less sugar and junk food, exercise 3-4 times weekly for one hour, sleep 7-8 hours daily—fundamentals that aren't sexy but "just work" when implemented consistently.15:00 - Mathematical equation for wealth: addition (monthly savings) + subtraction (eliminate greed/biases) + division (asset allocation) + multiplication (time horizon) = exponential compounding power.20:00 - Pattern recognition in investing develops through building a "large mental database of businesses and industries through years and decades" allowing identification of opportunities in any market condition.25:00 - Compounding goodwill principle from Guy Spear and Moneesh Pabrai: being genuinely helpful without expectations creates competitive advantage, especially in money management where nice people are rare.42:00 - India investment opportunity: demographic dividend with median age of 29, rising disposable incomes, strong domestic consumption, and companies expanding to overseas markets at 50-100% higher margins.52:00 - Corporate governance revolution in India: promoters now realize good governance earns 25-30x P/E multiples versus 5-6x for poor governance—"it pays to be honest" creates 5x more wealth for insiders.55:00 - Investment journal advice: $10 journal purchased in 2014 became "one of the best value investments" by documenting decisions, tracking mistakes, and archiving market panic commentary for pattern recognition during future corrections.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

I had the pleasure of co-hosting another episode of Excess Returns with Matt Zeigler.In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Gary Mishuris, Managing Partner and CIO of Silver Ring Value Partners, to explore how deep fundamental analysis, behavioral insight, and disciplined process come together in real-world investing. Gary shares formative lessons from his early career at Fidelity during the post-tech bubble period, including firsthand experiences learning from legends like Peter Lynch, and connects those lessons to how he evaluates value, quality, and mispricing today. The conversation spans a detailed case study on Warner Bros. Discovery, portfolio construction under uncertainty, selective use of options, and how artificial intelligence is reshaping the research process for long-term investors.Available now on Excess Returns Podcast and Talking Billions. 🎧I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.https://excessreturnspod.com/https://cultishcreative.com/Topics covered in this episode• Lessons from Peter Lynch and Fidelity on why “just cheap” does not work• The Silver Ring origin story and how early life experiences shaped a value investing mindset• Warner Bros. Discovery as a good business plus bad business mispricing case study• How hated stocks, spin-offs, and catalysts can unlock hidden value• Conviction, position sizing, and staying rational when the market disagrees• When and why options can be used in a value investing framework• Auctions, ego, and why prices can overshoot intrinsic value• The role of mental models like reflexivity, activation energy, and lollapalooza effects• How AI fits into an investment research process without replacing judgment• What average investors should understand about incentives and simplicityTimestamps00:00 Introduction and why “just cheap” does not work02:20 Early career at Fidelity and lessons from Peter Lynch07:40 The Silver Ring story and learning what real value means12:00 Warner Bros. Discovery and the good company bad company problem18:30 Conviction, mispricing, and maintaining discipline in hated stocks26:40 Using options selectively and managing portfolio-level risk34:10 Auctions, ego, and when price can detach from intrinsic value44:30 Entertainment, media disruption, and evergreen demand for content49:50 How AI is changing equity research and idea generation55:40 What AI can see that humans often miss01:00:30 One lesson for the average investorPodcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Gary Mishuris is a CFA and managing partner of Silver Ring Value Partners who combines MIT computer science training with behavioral discipline to practice intrinsic value investing while pioneering practical AI integration in fundamental research.The episode is sponsored by TenzingMEMO — the AI-powered market intelligence platform I use daily for smarter company analysis. Code BILLIONS gets you an extended trial + 10% off.https://www.tenzingmemo.com/And if you haven't yet, find me on Substack!3:00 - Gary frames AI through personal experience: recalls Fidelity portfolio manager using legal pad instead of Excel 25 years ago—illustrates how refusing modern tools creates disadvantage, not discipline.5:30 - The two extremes of AI: Luddite view (AI pollutes your process) vs. magic genie fallacy (ask AI for winning stocks). Reality: AI enables more efficient work, but you still do the hard work.7:15 - “AI natives” concept: younger professionals naturally integrate AI like digital natives adopted technology. Gary warns against becoming dinosaurs by refusing to explore AI’s capabilities.12:00 - Key insight: AI forces introspection about your investment process. Where do you add unique value and judgment? Where are repetitive tasks easily enhanced by machines? Must stay “on the loop” and verify outputs.22:00 - Practical AI applications: earnings call analysis, pattern recognition across transcripts, competitor analysis, business model breakdowns. AI excels at synthesis and organization tasks.35:00 - Critical limitation: AI hallucinates and makes mistakes. Never trust blindly. Use AI to generate drafts, frameworks, and organize information—then apply human judgment and verification.45:00 - Discussion of behavioral traps: AI can create illusion of thoroughness through volume. Don’t confuse encyclopedic reports with quality analysis. Reference to Buffett’s one-page 1951 Geico analysis.58:00 - Warning about endless research: Know when to stop turning rocks. AI makes it too easy to keep researching instead of making decisions. Investment case should fit on one page.1:05:00 - Shorting discussion: timing challenges, asymmetric risk. Emphasis on finding your own process—what works for others may not work for you.1:10:00 - Final wisdom: “Don’t equate length with quality. Quality is quality”—whether generated with AI assistance or not. Process matters more than tools.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Starting in January 2026, I'll take a handful of questions from the audience each month and answer them here. Submit your questions, tune in, share, rate, and listen! Thank you for writing!Office Hours Episode NotesYour questions answered on investing, business, and long-term thinking.Questions covered:• Most surprising work habit? I rarely work at a desk—I think best while walking or reading on the floor.• Management quality vs. business fundamentals? Two sides of one coin. You want both capable people and capable businesses.• How long do you hold winners? As long as the quality remains intact. Valuation alone isn't reason enough to sell.• When does quality investing become momentum? I don't buy stocks because prices are rising. I buy when they're down and out of favor—then hold as they strengthen.• AI bull market—what's the endgame? Excited about productivity gains in existing businesses and entirely new businesses AI will enable by lowering creative barriers.• Signs of long-term management thinking? Read earnings transcripts. Look beyond quarterly commentary to capital allocation decisions and customer/supplier relationships.• Right time to invest? Investing is a lifelong pursuit, not a market-timing decision. The question isn't "when" but "how" to deploy capital thoughtfully.• Career change into investing later in life? Never too late. Read extensively, connect with professionals, and find mentors organically.• Most influential non-investment idea? The Infinite Game—viewing investing, relationships, and business as games you want to last forever, not win once.Send your questions for next month's Office Hours.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Nick Kapur is co-founder of Tenzing Memo, an AI-powered market intelligence platform, bringing extensive experience as a former equity analyst and product leader who specializes in building investment research technology for asset managers.The episode is sponsored by TenzingMEMO — the AI-powered market intelligence platform I use daily for smarter company analysis. Code BILLIONS gets you an extended trial + 10% off.https://www.tenzingmemo.com/3:00 - Nick shares his origin story: born to self-made bankers in Washington DC, his mother broke barriers working in banking in the 1970s, and his father came to the US on an athletic scholarship before joining the World Bank organization.5:50 - A pivotal 2009 tragedy: Nick’s uncle, a successful retail banker, was killed in a terrorist attack. His uncle’s advice—”Lawyers can only scale to a limited extent. You might be better for business”—became a catalyst for Nick’s entrepreneurial journey from intrapreneurship to founding companies.8:32 - The birth of Tenzing Memo: Co-founder Tom Saber-Agan identified a fundamental problem—the time-intensive process of gathering, collating, and printing research materials for multiple companies didn’t scale with his ambition to “turn over a lot of rocks” in his investment process.10:15 - The research gap: Nick explains how sell-side coverage has become less expansive, leaving investors without consolidated qualitative looks at companies, especially in small and mid-cap spaces where coverage is thin or nonexistent.19:15 - Michael Burry’s observation resonates: fewer people are doing in-depth research today due to passive investing’s rise, creating advantages for active researchers who use modern tools to go deeper.25:30 - How Tenzing works: The platform synthesizes earnings calls, SEC filings, and other materials into digestible sections—briefing, story, bar case, bull case, bear case—providing “almost superhuman powers in research.”43:00 - The amplification effect: Nick emphasizes AI doesn’t replace human judgment but amplifies it—”you still need to pick which companies to look at and make the final investment decision.”57:47 - Future developments: International coverage coming within weeks, including first non-US major exchange; new features like estimates reconciliation, “five surprises” (underappreciated catalysts), and enhanced PDF export for mobile research.1:01:40 - Core mission delivered: “Get up to speed faster”—not 10% faster but exponentially faster, enabling investors to look at more ideas with greater depth.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Sangeet Paul Choudhary is the bestselling co-author of Platform Revolution, founder of Platformation Labs, senior fellow at UC Berkeley, and author of Reshuffle, exploring how AI fundamentally reorganizes value creation architecture.Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/3:00 - Sangeet describes growing up in an industrial town where everyone's father worked at the steel plant, creating a homogeneous, "straight-jacketed" environment. Digital technologies opened new career possibilities beyond this rigid path.5:45 - The Intelligence Distraction: Sangeet challenges the dominant narrative of AI benchmarked by intelligence metrics. "AI is not an alternative to human thought. It could be an alternative to human-performed knowledge work, but it's not an alternative to human thought."8:30 - The GPS metaphor: AI's real impact comes from reorganizing systems, not raw intelligence. Like GPS restructures traffic flow by coordinating unconnected drivers, AI reorganizes economic activity by creating shared representations of complex spaces.15:00 - Travel industry transformation: Dreaming on Instagram, planning on Google Flights, booking through fragmented systems. AI could create unified representations connecting desire to action seamlessly.28:00 - Piracy as market research: "Piracy is a form of market research showing unmet demand." When illegal activity fills gaps, it reveals where legitimate systems fail to serve users.35:00 - Platform economics: Network effects create winner-take-all dynamics. Once critical mass is achieved, platforms become nearly impossible to displace.42:00 - Solution vs. execution: Professional services charging for billing hours face commoditization. The future belongs to those charging for outcomes and results, not execution time.48:00 - Orica example: Mining explosives company stopped selling products, started selling blast outcomes. Shifted from commodity provider to results-aligned partner, capturing more value and developing superior expertise.52:00 - Don't need AI strategy, need strategy for AI world: "What is our strategy given the conditions that AI creates?" AI dissolves industry boundaries by making previously siloed knowledge accessible across sectors.54:30 - Value migration: Ask where value sat before, where it moves with AI, then position to capture that shifted value.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

I had the pleasure of co-hosting another episode of Excess Returns with Matt Zeigler.In this wide-ranging conversation, Gautam Baid joins Excess Returns to discuss the principles that shaped his investing philosophy, the lessons learned through bear markets, and why compounding, patience, and quality matter far more than forecasts or short-term performance. Drawing from his books The Joys of Compounding and The Making of a Value Investor, Baid shares a deeply reflective framework for long-term investing, portfolio construction, behavioral discipline, and global diversification, with insights spanning Indian and US markets, liquidity cycles, AI, and investor psychology.Available now on Excess Returns Podcast and Talking Billions. 🎧I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.https://excessreturnspod.com/https://cultishcreative.com/Timestamps00:00 Introduction and the asymmetric nature of compounding01:00 Gautam Baid’s investing background and books03:00 The importance of journaling and learning through bear markets06:00 Investor sentiment, IPOs, and late-cycle market behavior10:20 Long-term investing versus complacency and monitoring risk14:15 Convex upside, concave downside, and letting winners run18:30 Liquidity cycles and lessons from Stan Druckenmiller22:45 Identifying market bottoms and the anatomy of bull and bear markets28:00 Averaging down, quality, and risk management30:30 How bear markets change investor psychology and strategy33:00 Patience, management quality, and long-term optionality36:15 Mr. Market, price signals, and market intelligence39:00 The Federal Reserve, inflation, and asset price dynamics44:00 Understanding the Indian equity market and valuation structure46:45 Why global diversification matters for US investors50:30 AI, margins, and the future of value investing53:00 Passion, purpose, and the psychology of long-term investing54:30 The single most note investors should learnPodcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Nadjeschda (Nadja) Taranczewski is a master of psychology, master certified coach, and founder of Conscious U who specializes in helping CEOs and founders uncover unconscious patterns shaping their relationship with wealth, leadership, and intergenerational trauma through her pioneering Money Work Program.3:00 - Nadja shares her powerful family history: her German grandmother's side benefited from the Nazi regime while remaining silent about their role, while her Polish grandmother was abducted and forced into prostitution, and her Russian grandfather was tortured in a concentration camp until he became an informant.8:00 - The profound impact of intergenerational trauma: Nadja's father grew up in extreme poverty with five people in a one-bedroom apartment, translating his grandfather's concentration camp stories at age 13, learning "the only person you can rely on is yourself."15:00 - Discovery process: Nadja pieced together her family story over decades through therapy and conversations, realizing that understanding these patterns was essential to breaking free from inherited trauma and beliefs about money and safety.25:00 - The concept of "source energy" - Nadja explains how we're born with original essence that gets overlaid with family patterns, cultural conditioning, and protective mechanisms, leading most people to live from a false self rather than their authentic core.35:00 - Money as safety vs. money as energy: Nadja contrasts her father's scarcity mindset ("money is safety") with her mother's guilt-driven giving, showing how both extremes kept her stuck until she learned to see money as flowing energy.45:00 - The three-step framework for transformation: noticing patterns, understanding their origins in your family story, and consciously choosing new responses that align with your true self rather than inherited programming.55:00 - Language shapes identity: Speaking multiple languages reveals how cultural context influences personality - English allows more optimistic expression while German and Polish carry historical weight and pessimism from generations of trauma.1:03:00 - Definition of success: "To have the luxury to realize my potential and to be more of myself in an environment where I get seen for that, celebrated for that, and loved for that."Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

How mathematical rigor, probabilistic thinking, and family priorities shape a young investor's approach to finding overlooked opportunities.The episode is sponsored by TenzingMEMO — the AI-powered market intelligence platform I use daily for smarter company analysis. Code BILLIONS gets you an extended trial + 10% off.https://www.tenzingmemo.com/David Diranko is a 29-year-old German mathematician turned professional value investor who uniquely combines statistical rigor with contrarian small-cap investing, building his investment advisory firm Diranko Capital while sharing research through his newsletter Contrarian Cash Flows.3:00 - David explains his unconventional journey from mathematics to IBM data scientist to full-time value investor, detailing how he worked 40+ hours at IBM while spending another 30 hours weekly on investing before making the leap to launch Duranko Capital.6:00 - Drawing parallels between Ben Graham as "the original data scientist" during the Great Depression, David discusses how mathematical thinking enhances investment analysis through probabilistic frameworks and viewing intrinsic value as a range rather than a single number.10:00 - The decision to share research publicly through Contrarian Cash Flows despite initial hesitation about giving away "edge," leading to deeper thinking, network effects, and unexpected client relationships—though David candidly admits he's still learning to balance transparency with proprietary insights.20:00 - Europe's structural advantages for small-cap investors: fragmented markets across 27 countries, language barriers creating information asymmetries, and limited institutional coverage enabling patient capital to exploit mispricing—with David emphasizing the importance of investing in quality businesses over statistical cheapness.35:00 - AI's transformative impact on investing: from automating routine tasks to potentially replacing 50% of analyst work, while emphasizing that relationship-building, creative thinking, and probabilistic judgment remain distinctly human advantages that AI cannot replicate.50:00 - Balancing entrepreneurship with young family life (two kids under three), David shares his contrarian view that starting families early while building careers creates stronger bonds through shared struggle, rejecting the common narrative of family as a "reward" for career success.1:02:00 - Closing wisdom on finding meaning beyond financial returns, referencing Charlie Munger's caution that a life purely about buying securities wouldn't be enough—investing must serve a deeper purpose than accumulation.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Jawad Mian is the founder and managing editor of Stray Reflections, serving elite hedge funds and family offices worldwide, while uniquely integrating deep spiritual wisdom with global macro investing through his acclaimed book and podcast.3:00 - Jawad shares how seeking his entrepreneur father's approval shaped his drive for success, revealing the subconscious motivation behind his ambitious twenties working in finance.5:30 - The evolution of motivation: 20s spent seeking dad's approval, 30s deepening spiritual life, 40s focused on marriage—how Jawad's purpose transformed across life decades while pulling more from himself by showing up for others.7:00 - Why Jawad walked away from launching his hedge fund at 30 despite Market Wizards aspirations: "I realized I'm not the same guy who had that dream when he was 20."11:00 - The pivotal Quranic verse that reframed everything: "Competition in worldly increase diverts you until you visit the graveyards"—realizing material pursuits alone weren't enough after witnessing his father's success without contentment.21:00 - Inside Stray Reflections' boutique model: serving 30-40 elite clients at $30K+ annually, rejecting scale for depth, quality, and protecting creative freedom from institutional pressures.28:00 - Big Idea: "There's a certain magic in the mundane" - Jawad's discovery that extraordinary insights emerge from ordinary moments through journaling, not just dramatic events.38:00 - The contrarian case for indexing: Why Jawad holds 80% in passive index funds despite being a macro analyst, acknowledging his cognitive biases and preserving mental bandwidth.46:00 - Writing as meditation: How daily writing became spiritual practice, processing experiences and ideas without agenda, leading to unexpected business opportunities.55:00 - Information diet philosophy: "I'm only reading to write...I trust that what is important will come to me" - shifting from consuming everything to intentional, curated knowledge.59:00 - Redefining success through faith: "Wealth in excess of daily provision isn't a blessing, it's a test" - the Islamic framework of stewardship over ownership that transforms how Jawad approaches money and achievement.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Matthew Stafford is a venture capitalist, angel investor, and co-founder of Nine Others—a global entrepreneur network spanning 5,000 founders across 50 cities—who transformed from school dropout to successful investor by proving that authentic, give-first relationships create more wealth than transactional networking.3:00 - Matthew explains the Nine Others concept: monthly dinners for 10 people where founders share their biggest challenge by answering "What's keeping you up at night?" The community has run for 14 years and inspired his new book of the same title.7:20 - School dropout story: Matthew shares the uncomfortable reality of dropping out after weeks at college, feeling lost in his early 20s, before finding his path through IT work and eventually earning a computer science degree at Durham University at age 27.10:45 - The turning point: Seeing his now-wife graduate sparked his return to education. He proved he could excel academically while surrounded by 18-year-olds with straight A's, learning to balance work, study, and life.18:30 - Building Nine Others: Started with simple dinners to help founders solve problems together. Matthew deliberately enabled connections without trying to capture value, trusting that "being helpful without expectation" would compound over time.28:15 - Give-first philosophy: "If I tried to capture things short term it wouldn't last five minutes." Matthew contrasts his approach with transactional networkers who only make introductions when there's something in it for them.35:40 - Investment approach: Focuses on knowing founders deeply before investing, understanding their sustainability and motivation. At early stages, the people behind the business matter more than the product.54:09 - Long-term greedy: Matthew references Guy Spier's concept, explaining how 10 years of being helpful, honest, and trusted creates "super easy" opportunities that feel like shortcuts but are actually the result of patient relationship-building.56:27 - The real shortcut: "How do you make wealth creation really easy? Know the right people, have them come to you, watch them build big businesses. That's the shortcut—doing that stuff and then having it easy."Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Happy Holidays, Dear Friends! Enjoy this special episode where I share a few stories and my reflections on the year. Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Beyond celebrating, holidays are often also about giving and receiving. It's a timely episode that explores both, and so much more. Jen Laun is a well-being facilitator who guides family wealth professionals and rising generation members through transformative experiential learning focused on the sacred flow of giving and receiving, spiritual capital, and helping successful wealth creators—who excel at giving—learn the equally vital practice of receiving well.3:00 - Jen shares her upbringing as an only child with loving parents who encouraged her creativity and freedom to be herself. Her Italian family background brought warmth and strong support for her natural drive and interests.5:00 - CORE CHALLENGE INTRODUCED: Jen explains why wealth creators struggle with receiving. The first step is awareness—recognizing "I don't like to receive" or "it's not easy for me to receive." She emphasizes that receiving difficulties show up in complex ways, especially when money is involved.6:30 - BREAKTHROUGH INSIGHT: "When we have trouble receiving well, it also ends up blocking what someone is trying to do by giving." Jen shares transformative story from her workshops: a generous family wealth professional whose sick daughter forced him to receive from community. The healing on his face when he realized "I'm now in a place where I'm receiving more than I'm giving out. And I need that" stayed with her for years.8:30 - THE REFRAME: Jen teaches that receiving is an act of generosity—it gives others the opportunity to give. When you're not open to receiving, you're blocking another person who may experience joy by giving. She shares how her mom used this wisdom with a cousin who struggled to let friends pay for dinner.25:00 - Jen introduces spiritual capital: the intangible resources like wisdom, presence, and authentic connection that create lasting value beyond financial wealth for families.35:00 - Jen's evolution from corporate sales to well-being facilitation, guided by curiosity and inner knowing. Her friend Sam, age six, crystallized her purpose: "Jen, you help people."45:00 - Discussion of what truly creates legacy—not what we accumulate but the wisdom, presence, and authenticity we share.57:00 - JEN'S SIGNATURE QUESTION: "Where do we grow from here?" First requires knowing where you are right now, then exploring what would support your flourishing. Jen's sprout metaphor reminds us that growth begins beneath the soil, unseen, and even tiny growth matters.59:20 - ON SUCCESS: Jen defines success as being yourself and sharing that with others. Her friend Ruth (who died at 107) always said: "Tell people about your mistakes. Be real." Success means honoring yourself entirely—the good, bad, and ugly—and being authentic.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Dave Sather is a Certified Financial Planner and founder/CEO of Sather Financial Group, a $2 billion fee-only investment management firm in Victoria, Texas, who has built authentic client relationships through disciplined value investing over 25+ years while creating the award-winning Bulldog Investment Company student internship program at Texas Lutheran University.Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/3:00 - Dave shares formative childhood shaped by Depression-era parents who instilled frugality, work ethic, and educational investment. Required to save 50% of all earnings for college from early age, working multiple jobs at 14 to fund goals.6:30 - Career path story: From El Paso military town to Texas Lutheran education, initially resisting Victoria, Texas but relocating for family obligations. Started advisory firm during 1990s Texas recession when banks and real estate were collapsing.9:00 - Building relationships in small-town Victoria became competitive advantage. “If I do the right thing by my clients, word of mouth is going to take care of me.” Community connections and authentic service created organic growth without marketing spend.15:00 - Philosophy shift from finding cheap investments to recognizing exceptional value. “I can pay a premium for really good stuff that can grow for a long time versus buying things that are just cheap.”27:00 - The Bulldog Investment Company program: Student-run fund managing real money, teaching ownership and accountability. Students present investment cases, debate merits, vote democratically on portfolio decisions.42:00 - Client relationship insights: Treating wealth transitions with care, understanding accumulation psychology. “This client didn’t just wake up one day with five million dollars and decide to behave like an idiot.”54:00 - Success definition: Access to basics (water, food, healthcare, safety), meaningful work, strong marriage, 40-year friendships that pass the “2 a.m. test” - relationships where you’d help immediately without excuses.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

The Third Episode of the Series! (Scroll down the earlier ones below).Matt Zeigler and I had the privilege of hosting Robert Hagstrom (The Warren Buffett Way) and Chris Mayer (100 Baggers) for a special 100-Year Thinkers Edition of the Excess Returns Podcast.Two legendary investors and authors. One hour packed with timeless wisdom on long-term thinking and wealth creation. This is the conversation we’ve been wanting to have—and we think you’ll find it as valuable as we did.Available now on Excess Returns Podcast and Talking Billions. 🎧I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.In this episode of the 100 Year Thinkers, we bring together Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer for a wide-ranging conversation on how great investors really think. Rather than focusing on formulas, factor labels, or short-term market predictions, the discussion explores investing as a discipline grounded in philosophy, language, psychology, and long-term business fundamentals. Drawing on ideas from Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Bill Miller, and thinkers from outside finance, this conversation challenges many of Wall Street’s most common assumptions and offers a deeper framework for making better long-term investment decisions. Topics covered in this episodeWhy value investing has nothing to do with price to earnings or price to book ratiosThe false divide between value and growth investing and why growth is a component of valueHow abstractions and labels distort decision making in marketsGeneral semantics and how language shapes investing mistakesCharlie Munger’s concept of worldly wisdom and the latticework of mental modelsWhy reversion to the mean is a flawed way to think about marketsThe stock market as a complex adaptive system rather than a predictable machineWhy most market forecasts fail and why people still believe themMyopic loss aversion and how frequent evaluation destroys long-term returnsThe importance of time horizon, patience, and long-term compoundingHow great investors think about conviction, uncertainty, and being wrongWhen to hold through difficulty versus when to exit an investmentLessons from Buffett, Munger, and Bill Miller on thinking independentlyPodcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Ehsan Ehsani is executive director at Crescendo Partners, adjunct assistant professor at Columbia Business School, and author of “How Not to Be Replaced by a Spreadsheet That Talks” who uniquely bridges quantitative analysis, and traditional fundamental investing while organizing Columbia’s generative AI conference.The episode is sponsored by TenzingMEMO — the AI-powered market intelligence platform I use daily for smarter company analysis. Code BILLIONS gets you an extended trial + 10% off.https://www.tenzingmemo.com/3:00 - Born in western Iran at 14,000 feet, strict education emphasis pushed Ehsan toward chemical engineering before discovering his talents lay in management and innovation.5:30 - Winding path to NYC: Sweden and MIT master’s degrees, European consulting, project-driven relocation to New York in late 2000s.7:30 - The Prometheus Warning: AI companies like Alphabet disrupted by their own creations. “Analysts benefit from using Gen AI tools in automating repetitive activities, but by embracing such technologies, they’re working themselves out of a job.”12:00 - Sell-side blueprint: Top 10 banks had 200-300 analysts each; now 300 total combined. Buy-side headcount could drop to two-thirds or half within 20 years.18:00 - “Gen AI is transformative because it allows automation of not just repetitive tasks but core analytical functions”—fundamentally different disruption than Bloomberg or alt data.25:00 - Size advantage: Large firms will mine 15 years of institutional memory—emails, memos, channel checks—to identify patterns smaller funds can’t access.35:00 - Contrarian take: Beyond “do more with less” hype, rapid bifurcation looms: “This separation of better and worse performance will happen much faster than with previous technologies.”45:00 - Next frontier: Voice/video training. CEO says “no” versus “no...”—transcripts miss hesitation that reveals truth.55:00 - “We humans tend to forget. It’s a blessing in general, but for pieces of wisdom we read, they might not remain top of mind. AI can remind us.”60:00 - Success definition: “Tranquility and content where your values, interests, and priorities align with what you’re doing. I didn’t define it in economic form because that doesn’t embody true success.”Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.