Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth

How do you set the right ROAS target on Meta heading into Black Friday and Cyber Monday?Most brands either guess… or use last month’s numbers and hope they hold.But BFCM behaves nothing like a normal period and the attribution windows prove it.In this episode, Tony and Steve walk through the real data behind Meta’s 7-day vs. 28-day click attribution, why value shifts dramatically in the weeks leading up to Black Friday, and how that should change your spend strategy right now.You’ll learn:How much value Meta under-reports in the 7-day windowWhy pre-BFCM ad spend has a longer conversion tailHow to push your ROAS target lower without tanking efficiencyHow incrementality testing plays into your spend ceilingWhy daily spending power spikes in early November—and how to use itHow to analyze YOUR 7-day vs 28-day attribution before BFCMShow Notes:This episode is brought to you by Tie: meettie.comExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

Most ecommerce brands build one forecast — and that’s why most forecasts are wrong.In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down the 3-forecast model that every high-performing brand should use when planning for 2026: Board. Budget. Bonus.You’ll learn:Why every brand needs three forecasts, not oneHow to balance short-term execution (Black Friday) with long-term planning (2026)How to model different outcomes for your board, your operating budget, and your team goalsHow to use tools like percentage-over-model and event effect modeling to make forecasts actually usefulIf you’re leading growth, finance, or operations at a 7 to 9 figure brand, this episode will help you plan smarter, forecast with confidence, and build a roadmap that aligns your team from boardroom to bonus.Get your 2026 forecast built with CTC’s Prophit System: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-systemShow Notes:This episode is brought to you by Tie: meettie.comExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

Most brands are building their 2026 plan all wrong.In this episode, Taylor breaks down why you can’t walk into the new year with one financial forecast — and why the smartest brands plan three: Board, Budget, and Bonus.You’ll learn how to:Build scenario plans that align finance and marketingForecast existing and new customer revenue with confidenceConnect your marketing calendar directly to your financial goalsPresent a plan your board, your bank, and your team will actually believe inWhether you’re a CMO, CEO, or founder planning for growth in 2026, this is your playbook for making smarter decisions before the year even starts.Get your 2026 forecast built with CTC’s Prophit System: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-systemBonus Offer (through Nov 11): Sign up now and get our Black Friday Cyber Monday Hourly Tracking Report — free.Show Notes:This episode is brought to you by Tie: meettie.comExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

Black Friday isn’t won by guessing, it’s won hour by hour.In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down how top DTC brands use real-time ad spend optimization to hit — and even exceed — their Black Friday and Cyber Monday targets.You’ll learn how hourly tracking transforms decision making during the biggest shopping weekend of the year, plus:How to spot pacing issues before it’s too lateWhen to scale ad spend versus pull back in real timeWhat hourly data reveals about buyer behavior on BFCMWhy last year’s patterns are your best forecasting tool for this yearLimited offer: Get a free Black Friday Hourly Tracking Report when you purchase a Prophit System, your full-year spend and forecasting model built by Common Thread Collective.Show Notes:This episode is brought to you by: Finaloop: https://get.finaloop.com/ecommerce-playbook-podcast/Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

After months of mixed signals, new data from the DTC Index shows ecommerce revenue is up 10% year over year — but consumer confidence is heading in the opposite direction.In this episode, host Richard sits down with Steve, CTC’s Chief Data Scientist, to unpack what’s really happening in the numbers. They dig into the latest data from our DTC Index and Consumer Confidence Index, exploring:Why returning customers are driving growth this fallThe strange disconnect between economic sentiment and spending behaviorHow to use consumer confidence data to forecast your spending powerWhat this all means for your Black Friday and 2026 planningIf you’re an ecommerce operator or growth strategist trying to separate signal from noise this holiday season, this one’s for you.Show Notes:This episode is brought to you by: Finaloop: https://get.finaloop.com/ecommerce-playbook-podcast/Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

Want to stop guessing when to spend your Meta budget during Black Friday and Cyber Monday? This episode breaks down exactly how to plan your ad spend hour by hour so you can hit your revenue goals without wasting a single dollar.Taylor Holiday and Luke Austin walk through the real data behind BFCM revenue flow, showing when sales actually spike, when performance dips, and how top DTC brands use hourly pacing to stay ahead. You’ll learn how to:Map your ad spend across Thanksgiving → Cyber MondayRead the “horseshoe” pattern of revenue flowAvoid early-morning panic when your ROAS looks badSet hourly targets using the Prophit System modelsCourse-correct in real time to hit your daily goalsWhether you’re managing a seven-figure Meta account or running your first big BFCM campaign, this framework will help you build a smarter plan — not just react to dashboards.Show Notes:Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demoExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

This is a special Friday episode feature of CTC's DTC Hotline:Most brands talk about hitting their Q4 goals — but few have a system to identify and close revenue gaps before they happen.In this episode of The DTC Hotline, Tony, Luke, and Richard break down how to spot and fill revenue shortfalls during the holidays, using the same daily frameworks CTC applies across top DTC brands.They’ll walk through:How to pinpoint whether your gap is in new or returning customersThe daily cadence CTC uses to track and close gaps in real timeWhen to deploy incrementality tests and channel expansion (like AppLovin) to recover missed revenueWhy every forecast should translate into specific daily actionsAnd how to think in “units of growth” — the building blocks of hitting your Q4 targetIf you’ve ever wondered how to turn missed forecasts into closed gaps — this episode is your blueprint.Call or text the DTC Hotline: 866-DTC-2263 (866-382-2263)Ask your burning eComm questions and we might answer them live on air.Show Notes:Whether you’re running paid ads on Meta, Google, or TikTok, FERMÀT can help you increase your conversion rates without touching your website. https://www.fermatcommerce.com/ctcExplore the Prophit System:https://www.prophitsystem.comThe DTC Hotline mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask your eCom questions.

In this special episode of the Random Show, Taylor Holiday and Andrew Faris unpack a wide-ranging conversation—from AI’s potential to predict creative performance before launch, to the messy truth about equity splits, competition, and why most brands misunderstand “growth.”They debate:Whether LLMs could replace creative testing entirelyHow to design equity partnerships that actually reflect valueWhy cloning someone else’s playbook rarely creates monopoly outcomesThe real incentives behind Meta’s “CPM psyop”And why “growth is the CEO’s job” isn’t just a slogan—it’s an organizational design principleThis is a deep dive into how systems, incentives, and creativity intersect to drive (or stall) profit growth.Show Notes:Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demoHead to https://www.portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom

He left JP Morgan to build a sock brand  and it worked.In this episode of podcast, Taylor sits down with Daniel Shim, founder of Ondo, the DTC brand reinventing no-show socks. They dig into how a finance background helped build a profitable ecommerce business, what it takes to stand out in a crowded category, and why growth isn’t just about scale — it’s about discipline.You’ll LearnHow a banker turned founder built Ondo from scratchThe product insight that made no-show socks workWhat it takes to scale profitably in 2025Lessons from COVID era growth to nowSubscribe for more real stories of founders building smarter, not just bigger.Show Notes:Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

Most brands treat retention and acquisition as separate strategies and that’s the problem. In this episode, we reveal why retention actually begins at acquisition and how understanding your customer lifecycle from day zero can unlock massive LTV growth.Josh Tay joins Richard to unpack how our Global Accelerator program integrates growth and lifecycle strategy into one unified system. From front-loading LTV to designing retention programs that fuel acquisition, this conversation shows how the best brands build for long-term profitability — not just quick wins.You’ll learn:Why most retention strategies fail before the first purchaseHow to connect your acquisition data to lifecycle marketingReal examples of how integrated retention drives profitabilityThe retention frameworks used inside CTC’s Global Accelerator programIf you’re a 7- or early-8-figure brand looking to increase repeat revenue, this one’s for you.Show Notes:Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comLearn more about the Global Accelerator: commonthreadco.com/acceleratorThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm

In this episode of the podcast, Taylor and Luke take you inside the system Common Thread Collective has built to define what modern media management really looks like in 2025.Media buying has evolved - incrementality, experimentation, MMM, and FP&A can’t live in silos anymore. Taylor and Luke break down how to turn these complex ideas into one cohesive, profit-first workflow that drives real business results.You’ll learn:Why data integrity is the foundation of profitable decision-makingHow to set smarter budgets with the Spending Power ModelHow to allocate across channels using incrementality benchmarksHow to operationalize measurement, testing, and optimization in one systemWhy IRoAS > ROAS (and how to make that shift inside your team)This is the exact system CTC uses to manage media for hundreds of DTC brands..Show Notes:Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comRead the blog: https://commonthreadco.com/blogs/coachs-corner/building-useful-measurements-for-profitabilityThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm

Stop guessing — start scaling.In this episode of Podcast, Richard and Luke break down how one eight-figure brand completely rewrote its Q4 plan using the Profit System’s Spend Power Model and Creative Demand Model.You’ll see exactly how reallocating ad spend, optimizing contribution margin, and forecasting creative volume can unlock immediate profit gains in the next 30 days — without guessing or overspending.What you’ll learn:How to identify overspending using the Spend Power ModelWhy cutting ad spend can increase contribution marginHow to forecast creative volume with the Creative Demand ModelThe immediate actions to take for Q4 profitabilityHow one brand uncovered $400K in incremental profitWhether you’re planning your Q4 media budget or mapping your 2026 growth strategy, this episode gives you the playbook for winning with data, not intuition..Show Notes:Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm

Most brands blow their Q4 creator budget on one thing: holiday only content. In this episode of thPodcast, Richard sits down with Adrianne, Director of Creator Content, to break down why that’s a mistake and what to do instead.Learn CTC’s full framework for sourcing and scaling creator content that actually performs through Q4 and beyond. From building evergreen briefs to managing creator timelines, Adrianne walks through the exact checklist, examples, and ad structures her team uses to keep pipelines full, ads optimized, and budgets profitable.What you’ll learn:Why holiday focused UGC is a budget trapHow to build evergreen creator briefs that scaleThe ideal timeline for sourcing, editing, and launching UGC in Q4The one still image format that outperformed every videoHow to repurpose creator content across Meta, TikTok, Pinterest & moreShow Notes:Go to https://bit.ly/4mFOWa1 to get 20% off your first 3 months of Omnisend with code CTC20.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm

As Q4 kicks off, one of the biggest levers brands can pull is their offer strategy. In this episode, Richard Gaffin (Director of Digital Product Strategy) and Taylor Holiday (CEO) break down how to design offers that maximize both new customer acquisition and retention during Black Friday/Cyber Monday.They walk through insights from CTC’s Black Friday/Cyber Monday Offer Database—a collection of 679+ offers from top eComm brands—and explain how to tailor messaging across channels like paid social, email, and SMS.You’ll learn:Why BFCM is the biggest new customer acquisition moment of the yearHow to balance broad sitewide discounts with segmented offers for VIPs or inventory clearanceThe trade-offs between discount depth, inventory availability, and timing across the holiday seasonCommon pitfalls brands face (like over/under-spending and missing the true margin math)Why transparency about your actual market position matters when setting offer expectationsIf you want to build an offer strategy that actually maps to your numbers—and not just guesswork—this episode will get you there.Show Notes:Go to https://bit.ly/4mFOWa1 to get 20% off your first 3 months of Omnisend with code CTC20.Join over 15,000 merchants protecting their revenue with Chargeflow. Use our promo code CF30 and start saving money, time, and sanity today: https://app.chargeflow.io/auth/sign-in?utm_source=ctc+hotline%2C+podcast&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=CTC+Hotline+%26+Chargeflow&utm_id=CTC+HotlineExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom

In this special episode, we share Taylor Holiday’s keynote from Stord’s Summit.(https://www.stord.com/) He unpacks the four eras of DTC—COVID’s boom, the lean “Ozempic era,” and what he calls the “Flow Era.” Drawing from CTC’s dataset, client stories, and industry benchmarks, Taylor explains why 2025 could mark the strongest period in DTC history.You’ll learn:Why the excess of capital and demand during COVID was both logical and unsustainable.How the “Ozempic era” forced brands to get lean—and why that was necessary for survival.The financial mechanics that quietly cap growth when brands self-fund.How product-led growth, compelling stories, and supplier financing separate the winners.Why natural selection in e-commerce has created a stronger species of brands ready for what’s next.If you want a clear picture of how we got here—and why the brands that remain are better positioned than ever—this keynote is essential listening.Show Notes:Ready to stop gambling on unreliable contractors?Check out AllStars and Book Your Strategy Call:https://www.hireallstars.com/contactExplore the Prophit System:https://www.prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom.

In this episode of the E-Commerce Playbook, Taylor Holiday and Richard Gaffin dig into the Measurement Roadmap—CTC’s framework for deciding what to test, when to test it, and why it matters. They unpack why incrementality testing is so crucial, the massive swings it can reveal in platform reporting, and how brands can use repeated tests to progressively “shrink the error bars” around decision-making.From Meta’s 20% under-reporting benchmark to surprising Amazon lift results, Taylor shares concrete examples of how measurement gaps can change behavior, creative strategy, and even channel prioritization. The conversation highlights a hard but liberating truth: marketers don’t need perfect certainty—they need enough clarity to make confident decisions anchored in contribution margin.Show Notes:Ready to stop gambling on unreliable contractors? Check out AllStars and Book Your Strategy Call: https://www.hireallstars.com/contactExplore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecommGet expert, 1:1 advice from our team:https://www.YourAdmission.co/bookctc

Most brands rush into new ad platforms before they’re ready. In this episode, Richard and Tony break down why channel expansion is less about “good or bad” and more about timing and fuel.They revisit the core sequence—master Meta, then Google—before adding channels like Snapchat, TikTok, YouTube, or Pinterest. And they go deep on why CTC is bullish on AppLovin, the mobile gaming ad platform that’s driving genuinely incremental growth for select brands.You’ll learn:The prerequisites for channel expansion (creative system + incrementality measurement)How AppLovin differs from Meta & Google—and why it’s working nowThe scale opportunity CTC sees as the platform opens up Oct 1Why CTC approaches channels as investments, not experimentsIf you’ve nailed your core channels and want to know when (and how) to expand, this episode is your playbook.Show Notes:Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demoExplore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom

As Q4 approaches, creative demand becomes one of the biggest challenges for brands looking to scale efficiently. In this episode, Richard Gaffin (Director of Digital Product Strategy at CTC) sits down with Luke Austin (VP of E-Commerce Strategy) to unpack CTC’s new Creative Demand Model—a framework that quantifies exactly how much creative output brands need in order to hit their revenue and spend goals.They walk through real examples from CTC’s dataset, breaking down what separates the highest creative scores from the lowest, and why top brands are still producing hundreds of ads each month to sustain growth. You’ll learn:The five key metrics behind the Creative Demand Score (zero spend rate, ad concentration, ROAS degradation, spend degradation, and evergreen share).How creative volume directly ties into forecasting models like spend and MER.Why troubleshooting CTR or hook rate in isolation often misses the bigger picture.Practical recommendations for balancing evergreen content, rapid testing, and scaling winning ads.How creator-driven content and AI-enabled creative are making high-volume production more cost-effective.If you’ve ever wondered whether your brand needs 20 ads—or 200—to compete in Q4, this episode provides the clarity and direction to plan with confidence.Show Notes:Ready to stop gambling on unreliable contractors? Check out AllStars and Book Your Strategy Call: https://www.hireallstars.com/contactExplore the Prophit System:https://www.prophitsystem.comExplore our Creator Content Packages: https://www.commonthreadco.com/pages/creative-productionThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom.

In this week’s episode of the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Luke Austin (VP of Ecommerce Strategy at CTC) sits down with Mike McVerry, SVP of Ecommerce & International Sales at Urban Armor Gear (UAG) to unpack how the brand unlocked 40% YoY revenue growth and 43% contribution margin growth in 2025 … despite a shrinking market.Together, they break down:Why “spend more to grow more” wasn’t working for UAG- How the Profit System bridged the gap between finance and marketing- The role of contribution margin in setting smarter media budgets- Scaling creative volume nearly 4x year over year- How to break through a “glass ceiling” of growth with financial clarity- Lessons on inventory, marketing calendars, and collaboration that fueled profitabilityThis is a real-world case study in building sustainable DTC growth by aligning finance, marketing, and creative execution.Show Notes:Ready to solve your influencer strategy?Book Your Strategy Demo at:https://www.getsaral.comExplore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm

In this special episode of the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Luke Austin takes the reins and brings in two of CTC’s top-performing growth strategists—Lacie Geary and Brian Sakansky—for a deep dive into what it takes to build and execute a forecast with precision.You’ll get a rare look under the hood at CTC’s Profit System, including how we:Set and execute daily client-level forecasts for revenue, spend, and contribution marginThink about tradeoffs between efficiency vs. volumeUse planning tools like the Spend aMER Model, Day-of-Week Effect, and Creative Demand ModelTrack forecast accuracy by strategist, with Lacie and Brian leading the wayIdentify and respond to signals in real-time that influence media allocationUse product-level reporting to guide decisions at the SKU and creative levelYou’ll hear specific client examples from the home goods and apparel space, plus commentary on how inventory, product mix, and creator content factor into hitting (and sometimes beating) forecasted targets.Show Notes:Ready to earn trust, convert shoppers, and inspire customer loyalty? Check out Yotpo:https://www.yotpo.com/?utm_source=CommonThreadCollective&utm_medium=comarketing&utm_term=podcastExplore the Prophit System: https://prophitsystem.comHave a question for the podcast?Email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com