Gone By Lunchtime

Celebrations for a big and bodacious Oriini Kaipara byelection victory were shortlived for Te Pāti Māori thanks to Tākuta Ferris's decision to double down on a social media post aghast at a multicultural group of Labour supporters for Peeni Henare on the campaign trail. That was compounded by party president John Tamihere entering the breach, and a mysterious reollaction of the role of party whip. Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire talk through the fallout and ask what it means for TPM and their relationship with Labour. Plus: a bigger-than-expected contraction in the economy has seen GDP shrink by 0.9%: is the government running out of time for the weather to change? In other defeat from the jaws of victory news, New Zealand First's new champion Stuart Nash enjoyed about 10 minutes of acclaim before putting his foot in it. And as Winston Peters gives David Seymour yet another dressing down, what explains the government's refusal to simply announce its position on a Palestinian state? Oh, and we issue a formal apology for propagating disinformation in last week's audiocast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In a special live edition of GBL in Ōtautahi, Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas complete a stocktake of the governing and alternative coalitions with a little over a year to election time. There is heckling, there are pub questions from politicians, and there are piping hot takes. Recorded at the Piano on August 30. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hot on the heels of the publication of A Different Kind of Power comes Prime Minister, an enthralling new film that applies a genuinely gobsmacking lens on Jacinda Ardern's time in power. In this special edition of Gone By Lunchtime, Madeleine Chapman, editor of the Spinoff (and author of Jacinda Ardern: A New Kind of Leader), joins Toby Manhire to talk about the film, which has just had its New Zealand premiere at the NZ International Film Festival, and the autobiography, what they tell us about Ardern and what they don't. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Christopher Luxon took a short and sharp mindset into the National Party conference on the weekend and with good reason: there is much getting back on track still to be done. He arrived in Christchurch amid a blur of bleak headlines, focused mostly on an economic mood epitomised by butter, netball crowds, abrupt Trump tariffs, unemployment numbers, and so on. Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire assess the state of play. But first: a trio who did school cert in fifth form look at the overhaul of NCEA and electoral reforms that would deny the vote to “deadbeats”, aka those who seek to enrol within a dozen days of the election. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We rattle through the regulatory standards bill, its advocates, its dissenters, and the tension it has created within the coalition. How serious is the fissure it has prodded between Act and New Zealand First Party (amplified by a cameo appearance by a United Nations special rapporteur)? Also on the agenda for Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire: the state of play in the Tāmaki Makaurau byelection, and the state of yuck in Wellington local body politics. You’ll never guess what we heard from the friend of a neighbour of a colleague about Ray Chung. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With an election about 15 months away, there are few better ways to get a sense of the political terrain than the Ipsos Issues Monitor, a survey that tracks the issues of greatest concern to New Zealanders, the parties they consider best equipped to deal with those issues, and how all of that has changed over time. Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas assess the latest edition of the study, and the messages it sends on cost of living, health and more. Plus: Shane Jones is promoting a bill that would oblige Ngāpuhi to undertake a single commercial treaty settlement; does he have a point? And we reflect on the formidable legacy of Takutai Tarsh Kemp, Te Pati Māori MP for Tāmaki Makaurau since 2023, who died suddenly last week at the age of 50. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Around the world, the flames of aggression and instability are burning. As Christopher Luxon arrives in China his immediate challenge is to douse the alarm from several former politicians and ensure that the relationship with leaders in New Zealand’s biggest export market are sweet. From there, the New Zealand prime minister is off to Europe and another guest spot at Nato, who are meeting in the Hague. In a new episode of Gone By Lunchtime, Toby Manhire, Ben Thomas and Annabelle Lee-Mather chew over the shifting global dynamic he’ll encounter, with escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, Trump quitting G7 early and ongoing devastation in Ukraine and Gaza. More prosaically, will Luxon welcome a chance to stride the international stage after a bit of a media flub on sick pay just before he left? Plus: a word on a sweary scrutiny week. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We're officially in the second half of the term, a milestone marked by the historic handover of the hallowed deputy prime minister amulet from Winston Peters to David Seymour.  The moment comes with pageantry, a flurry of interviews and a pair of new polls, which deliver intriguing, and sometimes divergent results. Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas pore over the results and what they mean for the parties and the politicians in the post-budget, post-pay-equity-reshape wash-up. Plus: Jim Bolger and Jacinda Ardern have boh been in the headlines in recent days. What do these returns tell us about the performance of their Chris-themed successors? And Chris Bishop found himself in a media moshpit after the Aotearoa Music Awards for calling the Stan Walker parade "crap" and earning the most painful denunciation imaginable: being called a dickhead by New Zealand treasure Don McGlashan. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the year of growth, Nicola Willis has presented a growth budget. But does the Investment Boost initiative, which speeds up depreciation for businesses, promise the kind of growth that the economy needs? In this special Spinoff pod for budget day, Toby Manhire asks Bernard Hickey for his take on the headline changes, and whether or not David Seymour’s earlier commentary that his colleague Brooke van Velden had “saved the budget” through its controversial and hurried changes to the pay equiry scheme, has been proven true. Plus: what are the cumulative impacts of the changes to KiwiSaver and Best Start, as compared to the SuperGold cohort? And how much did the global political and economic volatility influence the documents published today? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Unprecedented punishments imposed on Te Pāti Māori MPs, and the scramble to avoid banning them from the budget debate, is top of the agenda this week. Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire assess the fallout, before rewinding to last week’s theatrical parliamentary controversy, all of which stemmed from a C-word in a newspaper column, and led Winston Peters, doyen of parliamentary decorum, to deplore a “House of Chaos” (by which he did not mean the popular monthly techno night at Firecrackers nightclub in Ashburton). All of that, plus: we exclusively read the full text of tomorrow’s 2025 budget. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

An overhaul of the pay equity process has been whisked through parliament under urgency. The changes, which tighten the criteria for making a claim for workers in female-dominated sectors and summarily halt 33 existing claims in the pipeline, have prompted a major backlash, in part for their substance and in part for the decision to push the reform through without the usual consultation under a select committee process or regulatory impact statement. Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire discuss the unexpected announcement, the rationale for urgency, whether it’s plausible to claim it’s not primarily motivated by the billions that will be saved ahead of a tight budget, and what impact, if any, it might have on the women’s vote. The trio also discuss Christopher Luxon’s enthusiastic backing of a bill that would follow Australia in banning social media for under-16s. What is with the surge in member’s bill as mechanisms for party campaigning, what is the polling telling politicians about young people and social media, and does Luxon know he’s the prime minister? Plus: Australians have returned Labor and Albanese to power in what is being called a “bloodbath”, hot on the heels of Mark Carney’s big comeback in Canada. How big is the Trump effect, is it good news for the left or good news for incumbents, and how might New Zealand politicians look to seize upon the Trumpy moment? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This Saturday Aussies will (compulsorily) head to the polls. At the start of the year, Labor under Anthony Albanese was staring down the barrel of defeat and the first one-term government for almost 100 years. But with a few days to go, the pollsters are all picking that he'll return to power. What changed? Where did Peter Dutton's makeover go wrong? What happened to the Coalition campaign? Did Donald Trump play a role? To tackle these questions, complete with yarns about salmon and wallabies and paddling pool anomalies, is Ben McKay, Pacific editor for AAP and an illustrious former inhabitant of the New Zealand press gallery. In a special edition of the podcast temporarily renamed Gone By Brunchtime in recognition of the time difference, he talks to Toby Manhire about all that, the New Zealand influence across the Tasman, and what parties here might learn from there. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The PM’s speech and free-trade phone tree with like-minded leaders in response to Trump’s tarrif binge impressed many commentators, but not all of them: leading pundit and deputy prime minister Winston Peters was indignant and he said so. Christopher Luxon said it was media beatup, but was he right? Should he have consulted more thoroughly with his foreign minister? Should his foreign minister have slapped him down in public? Was Peters right that it was too early to be assembling pro-free-trade coalitions? Was he right that there was too much bellicose language being used? And how much of all this is about domestic, rather than global, politics? Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas assemble to tackle these questions and more such as: is there more than idle speculation and scuttlebutt to snap election chat? And what is up with the indefatigable Mr Peters’ (happy 80th birthday, by the way!) latest salvo in the anti-woke culture wars, seeking to “define ‘woman’ and ‘man’ in law”? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

At a sold out Q Theatre on Wednesday night, Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire grapple with the new Trump world order, preview the Peters-Seymour handover and assess the state of play ahead of the term halfway mark. With special guest Rebecca Wright. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After a drum beat of conjecture about his job security, the prime minister enjoyed something of an elixir in the investment summit and a trip to India that began with a breakthrough announcement: the launch of talks on a comprehensive free trade agreement. A big moment in itself felt bigger given the emergence of a US-led trade war, but also a confidence boost for Luxon. Ben Thomas, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Toby Manhire discuss the import of those developments, and whether Luxon's good time abroad can travel back to New Zealand with him. Plus: Winston Peters meets Marco Rubio, an extended chew over the latest in the school lunch saga, and David Seymour's suggestion that it highlighted "two New Zealands", and the Act Party announcement it will stand candidates in local elections. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Labour spokesperson for foreign affairs joins Toby Manhire for a special podcast casting a view across a turbulent world. New Zealand, like pretty much every country in the world, is suffering from geopolitical whiplash in processing the torrent of activity emanating from the Trump White House. A postwar order cemented across eight decades is crumbling as a newly expansionist, protectionist United States emerges under Trump’s second presidency. In a discussion spanning everything from Ukraine and Gaza to China and the Pacific, security guarantees and defence spending, Aukus, Five Eyes, Trump’s tariff bender and the impact of inequality and social media, Parker offers his assessment of where it all leaves New Zealand. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ambiguity surrounding the precise nature of the "animated" behaviour by Andrew Bayly towards a staffer, which led to his resignation as commerce minister, seeped into the prime minister's media response. Speaking to Mike Hosking, Christopher Luxon danced around the question of whether he would have sacked Bayly had he not quit, then danced around it again, and again, to the audible displeasure of the ZB superstar. Ben Thomas, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Toby Manhire try to get their heads around this double bill of The Thick of It and Clarke & Dawe. First, however, it's to the Tasman Sea, and the unexpected appearance of a trio of Chinese warships and live-fire exercises that left commercial airlines re-routing. What message was being sent, should it spur New Zealand to boosted defence spending, and how, in the naval wake, would Winston Peters have approached his visit to Beijing? Plus: the proposed reforms to citizen's arrest laws and a step towards a referendum on a four-year term, with one big condition attached. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The leader of the Act Party has been in plenty of headlines in the last two weeks, ranging from a controversial (and historic) letter written on behalf of constituent Philip Polkinghorne to an attempt to drive a Land Rover up the steps of parliament. Remarkably, he had a pop at an "ill-advised" Christopher Luxon. And that's just scraping the surface; there are the questions around the response to Tim Jago, the teacher-only days, the school lunches. Across the board, he is steadfast in insisting he's erred not even a skerrick. Is it an obduracy born of being a one-man band for so long, or is he going through a Prince Hal phase, getting some stuff out of his system before he becomes the king (or deputy prime minister, at least)? Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire thrash all that out. Plus: how much alarm are the latest cluster of opinion polls causing for National and Luxon? Does a cavalcade of health issues represent a serious political headache for the government? What should we make of the findings in the much-delayed Manurewa Marae data inquiry? And a word on the Cook Islands, Mark Brown and China. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Cook Islands prime minister, Mark Brown, has provoked the wrath of NZ's foreign minister with his decision to head to China to sign a new strategic deal. By failing to consult on the pact, says Winston Peters, the Cook Islands was in breach of commitments made as a member of the New Zealand realm. Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas put on their geopolitical goggles to assess the strain in relations, which comes as the tussle between China and the United States for influence in the Pacific enters a new phase, marked by Donald Trump pursuing an isolationist approach. Plus: How did Tama Potaka and co perform at Waitangi last week, and did Christopher Luxon come up with some new material for Ngāi Tahu in Akaroa? Join NZ’s favourite political podcast live in Auckland on 9th April at Q Theatre. Host Toby Manhire will be joined by Annabelle Lee-Mather (Ngāi Tahu, Ngāti Kahungunu, Ngāti Māmoe) (executive producer of The Hui) and Ben Thomas (former press secretary in the Key government) as they boldly step out of the studio and in front of an audience to cast a curious and caustic eye on New Zealand politics. Tickets on sale now at thespinoff.co.nz/events Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A passive protest at the pōwhiri. A prime minister avoiding the Treaty Grounds. A “very interesting” idea about a possible te Tiriti Commissioner. In case you haven’t noticed, it’s been a pretty full on Waitangi week, and The Spinoff’s unofficial Māori unit has been there to witness it all. Recorded on the sandy shores of the mighty North, guest hosts Liam Ratana and Lyric Waiwiri-Smith (along with regular producer Te Aihe Butler) discuss the problem of David Seymour, Tama Potaka’s messy kūpapa-kaupapa wordplay, the (seemingly undercooked) te Tiriti Commission proposal, and what we’d like to see at Waitangi in 2026. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices