The Debate

A most confusing Wednesday it was. In the space of six minutes, during a single press conference, the White House spokesperson first hailed the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, then called on Iran to reopen the world’s most oil-sensitive shipping lane. Five weeks of contradictory statements have bred wider uncertainty over the true contents of the ceasefire deal – and even who is party to it. Confusion moves markets, and in a war that has triggered the most severe energy crisis in decades, oil prices reflect that volatility: having fallen sharply on Wednesday, they have since climbed back above $100 a barrel. And amid such turbulence, there are always those who sense an opportunity to profit. We’ll examine who stands to gain, and how – whether this is simply smart investing, or something more troubling. With so much power concentrated in the hands of a single man, we’ll also ask whether greater scrutiny is warranted within the cabinet of Donald Trump, amid accusations that the line between national interest and personal profit may be blurring. If it is oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, that is one thing. But what if it is the United States itself?   Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

No apocalypse. Instead, an eleventh-hour ceasefire between Iran and the United States – one that is still being tested – with both sides claiming victory after five and a half weeks of war that may reshape how the world views them. Meanwhile, there is no ceasefire in Beirut, where Israel has carried out its heaviest strikes yet on the capital, hitting multiple densely populated areas. Dozens are feared dead. Will Washington tell Israel to halt its operation against Hezbollah? Then there is the Gulf. Even if the guns fall silent, it could take weeks – months, perhaps longer – to restore oil output to previous levels. And finally, there is the ratcheting up of biblical rhetoric. Faced with a regime where, for now, soldiers – not clerics – appear to hold sway, Donald Trump and his White House have issued the kind of doomsday threats more often associated with radical theocracies or rogue nuclear states. Will the world remember the threat to erase “an entire civilisation”, even if it never comes to pass?   Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Is Europe’s future on the ballot in Hungary? In Budapest, the US vice president is actively stumping for far-right incumbent Viktor Orban who trails in the polls ahead of Sunday’s general election. European politicians sometimes campaign for likeminded peers from neighbouring nations, but in this case, it is the United States openly taking aim at the bloc using the same talking points as Vladimir Putin’s Russia.  We talk about whether JD Vance’s support helps or hurts Orban in the homestretch of a race where the 62-year-old populist has made a point of holding up the European Union’s €90 billion loan to Ukraine. We also take a look at Orban's strategy and the opposition's claim that the prime minister attempted a false flag operation in neighbouring Serbia.  More broadly, we assess how the nation of 9.5 million has fared under Orban’s 16-year rule. How has pushing Hungary as the avant garde of a white Christian anti-woke, anti-immigrant alliance served Hungary? And what is the opposition offering instead? Produced by François Picard, Théophile Vareille, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente

Might is right… until it isn’t. 2026 began with US commandos seizing Venezuela’s president in a zero-casualty operation that put the rest of the world on notice. But now, Donald Trump’s first prime-time address in nearly five weeks of war is worrying markets rather than reassuring them. The US president is telling affected nations to buy more oil from him – and, if they are so concerned about energy security in the Strait of Hormuz, to go in themselves and sort it out. How should Gulf, European and Asian allies react to this “I break it, you fix it” approach to warfare? Is it already too late to walk away? And even if Washington washes its hands of the war it started with Israel, how can a fresh ten-year cycle of instability in the Middle East be avoided? For the United States, is this merely a passing blemish? Will the midterm elections rescue those hoping for a return to the previous world order? History suggests that, despite setbacks – from the failed 1980 hostage rescue in Iran to the insurgencies that bogged the US down in Iraq and Afghanistan – the United States has ultimately emerged undiminished as the world’s leading superpower. But now Trump has picked a fight with an enemy that is both a state and seemingly capable of deploying insurgent tactics. Is this a turning point – the moment after which the United States of America no longer appears quite so mighty?   Produced by François Picard, Aline Bottin, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Are we witnessing globalisation’s biggest turning point since the end of the Cold War? With Asia feeling the impact of US President Donald Trump’s war against Iran, and steadfast American allies such as the Philippines forced to declare an energy emergency, the immediate consequences are rippling through nations that manufacture much of what we buy in the West – with a boomerang effect for the rest of the world. Will they ever view the United States in the same light again? Especially under a president who favours spheres of influence and one-on-one hard bargains over international rules and global free trade. As so-called middle powers seek alliances that reduce dependence both on the US for defence and on China for goods, we’ll hear from the French president, currently on a tour of Japan and Korea. At the heart of it all is what quite literally fuels capitalism: energy. We’ll examine the potential short-term return of coal, and look ahead to the longer-term outlook. Will the events of the past month discourage efforts to accelerate – or even maintain – the transition to renewables? And how can countries hedge against a world that, for now, seems dangerously dependent on warring oil and gas suppliers?   Produced by François Picard, Aline Bottin, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

The Lebanese have seen it all: from civil war to the 2019 protests demanding an end to revolving-door politics; from the 2020 Beirut port explosion, which exposed the tragic consequences of nepotism, to Israel’s 2024 operation targeting its longtime foe, Hezbollah. Now Israeli ground forces have returned once again to confront the Tehran-backed group. Lebanon thus finds itself a second front in the month-long war launched against Iran. We’ll be asking what it means to return to life in wartime: how the country is coping with 1.2 million displaced people, with UN peacekeepers killed or injured, and with the enduring question of how Lebanon can break free from half a century of armed factions acting as laws unto themselves. That outcome will depend in part on how regional powers fare in the current war. For decades, they have treated Lebanon as a vacant lot where scores are settled by proxy. But it will also depend on the Lebanese themselves—on whether a younger generation can finally move beyond sectarian divisions and clan loyalties, and turn that ambition into lasting change.   Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

What could possibly go wrong? As Donald Trump repeats threats of a Venezuela-style seizing of Tehran's oil exports and as US assault troops get in position, the price of oil is blowing past $110 a barrel, as markets take it at face value that the Pentagon is planning to make a grab for Kharg Island – the hub for nearly 90 percent of Iranian crude exports. We ask about the pitfalls of sailing warships past the Strait of Hormuz for an invasion, the Islamic Republic's response, and how Gulf neighbours would view it all. Since 1945, the United States has positioned itself as the Arabian Peninsula's main security guarantor. Will that still be the same when the dust settles? Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

As G7 foreign ministers root for the off-ramp in the Iran war, François Picard’s panel weighs the damage done to the region, to the world economy and to transatlantic trust. From Donald Trump's threats against NATO allies to France denying it disinvited South Africa from June's G7 summit to placate Washington, we weighs US threats… and those of Iran. Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.       ​

It's Trump's war, but is it also NATO's problem? Europeans are forced to bear the security and financial consequences of the second war on their doorstep. We see if our panel agrees with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who assures it's only a matter of "a couple of weeks" before traditional allies agree to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.  Before Europeans follow a US president who started the war without consulting them into a potential quagmire, several questions arise: why should they help? Can the so-called coalition of the willing that's scrambling to help Ukraine fend off Russia's onslaught leverage US support into firm backing for Kyiv?  And what happens if Trump emerges weakened and wounded from a poorly planned campaign against Iran? Will the United States look at its traditional allies in a better light, or will he blame Europeans and turn on Ukraine?  Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Are diplomatic talks to end the Iran conflict actually happening? Donald Trump has hinted at "major" progress, but the White House downplayed this. Iran says no, Qatar says they're not involved, while there's increasing speculation that Pakistan could be the host of talks later this week. Yet all of this comes as Israel says it plans to push into Lebanon as far as the Litani River against Hezbollah and will use a Gaza-style approach, which resulted in a humanitarian catastrophe. So where are we at? Are we witnessing a high-stakes poker game where someone has to blink first? Produced by Annette Young, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Another deadline day, another ultimatum, another surprise turn from the US president. The same Donald Trump who may or may not send ground troops to try to secure the Strait of Hormuz is now claiming that his administration is talking with the Iranians, thus holding off on hitting critical infrastructure. Trump's messaging since the start of this war has been keeping friends and foes alike guessing. That's in stark contrast to his Israeli allies, who seem to be embracing a fight many of its leaders have been dreaming of for decades.  Israel, too, has a larger-than-life populist leader who's changed the course of his country's history. Their interests overlap, but remain distinct. A case in point is Israel's rush to prepare for an eventual ground operation in Lebanon. So who's calling the shots? Trump or Benjamin Netanyahu? Whose idea was this war? And who takes the blame once the guns go silent on a campaign that's failed to rally traditional allies, punished civilians by laying waste to critical infrastructure and triggered a worldwide energy crisis? What prospects lie ahead for Trump, his MAGA movement, Netanyahu and the state of Israel? Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

The Middle East War is now in its 20th day, with a perceived split in US and Israeli strategy emerging. Donald Trump says Israel bombed Iran's gas field "without his knowledge". Then Trump, perhaps playing catch-up, threatened to "blow up" Iran's South Pars gas field if Iran strikes Qatar; a move that experts say would literally explode the region.  There's also another issue simmering away: what to do with Iran's enriched uranium? Experts say this is the next big decision for Trump. Seizing Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium could well require the "largest special forces operation in history". When US and Israeli jets bombed Iran's nuclear facilities last June, the regime was thought to have over 400 kg of 60 percent6enriched uranium. This is near weapons grade. Weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90 percent. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, half of Iran's 60 percent enriched uranium is stored underground at Isfahan. US intelligence believes there's a "very narrow access point" through which this material could be retrieved. We discuss this next possible phase in the war, and what it could mean going forward. Produced by Mark Owen, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

On Day 19 of the war in the Middle East, there have been extensive air strikes, drone attacks and missiles launched. Fallout is spreading far beyond the so-called theatre of war. What's the plan in Iran? Donald Trump finds himself increasingly between a rock and a hard place. But at least he can count on his loyal MAGA followers. Or can he? The US Congress is calling for Joe Kent to appear, in the wake of his decision to resign as head of national counterterrorism over Iran. Kent, an erstwhile Trump and MAGA loyalist and former special forces officer, said "in all conscience I cannot back the Iran war". This is another example of Trump's support crumbling over the war. Kent also said the US went into battle under the influence of "Israel and its powerful American lobby". Is Trump's political universe starting to implode over his Iran strategy, or lack thereof? And what does this mean for the Middle East going forward?  Produced by Mark Owen, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Ali Larijani was the head of Iran's Security Council and a key voice in the ear of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Gholamreza Soleimani was the head of the Basij militia. Both were pillars of Iran's security apparatus. If they have indeed been taken out, the question is who replaces them, and will they take Iran down an even more hardline path? The death of Iran's key figure Ali Larijani raises more questions than answers. First, Israel says it has killed him in an air strike, but Tehran has yet to confirm or deny. While Israel and the United States rejoice and call on the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow what is left of their Islamic leadership, the reality on the ground is less certain. The systematic killing of the leaders of Iran since February 28 has created a vacuum in Tehran. The fear among analysts is that the space will be filled by regime insiders who will be hardened and more radical. Larijani was the lead negotiator at the now aborted talks to find a peaceful way forward. Following the death of the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – to whom he was a close adviser, some say the de facto leader – some in Washington saw Larijani as a good fit for successor; a man they could perhaps do business with. Who comes next? What could this mean for the war? And how might it affect the other groups in the region that take their lead from Iran's leadership? 

It's Day 17 of the war in the Middle East and as the missiles and drones keep falling, the US president has done a U-turn on needing help from his friends and allies. Donald Trump is calling now for a coalition to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. The US strikes on Iran's Kharg Island on Friday sent a message to Tehran, but did not take away the potential threat to shipping in and out of the Persian Gulf. For Trump, this call to stand together is something of a turn-around. On March 7, he told US network CBS it was a bit late of the United Kingdom and others to send ships. The US president didn't need British help to win his war.  Now, Trump is calling on NATO allies to join him in the war he started on February 28 without consulting them. There's a common interest in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. But would it even be at risk had Trump not started this whole crisis? Produced by Rebecca Gnignati, Elisa Amiri, Ilayda Habip.

Warfare is always evolving, sometimes slowly: Napoleon’s armies travelled little differently from those of Julius Caesar. At other times, change comes faster than commanders can process, as the futile carnage of the First World War showed. The pace of change on the battlefield today? Fast – very fast. Introducing the first war brought to you by artificial intelligence. In the first ten days of a campaign that may well have been prepared in a hurry, the US and Israel pinpointed and targeted as many Iranian sites in the first four days as the anti-ISIS coalition did in the first six months of its campaign in Iraq and Syria. How good are AI-informed kill orders? Are computers already making the call? The New York Times reports that it was probably humans who mistakenly decided to hit a girls’ school, killing 175. Even if outdated intelligence may be to blame, we’ll ask our panel what role AI might have played. And what responsibility do tech companies bear when their tools lead to war crimes and mass surveillance? In the battle between Anthropic and the US government over the proper use of its software, who gets the final say: the company, or the government? Especially when the power of this technology is something we do not yet fully grasp.   Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Daniel Whittington, Ilayda Habip.

One war can fuel another. After the United States and Israel launched an operation that began, on day one, with the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Donald Trump expressed surprise at Tehran’s decision to draw in Gulf oil producers and disrupt global supplies. From the ensuing energy crisis there are plenty of losers – and one big winner: Russia. Washington is now suggesting it may ease sanctions on Russian oil. The Kremlin’s war effort in Ukraine had been feeling the pinch, but now – even at a discount – it is finding buyers, just as the Trump administration again pushes for concessions from Kyiv. We’ll ask how Volodymyr Zelensky’s offer of drone technology to Gulf states measures up against Vladimir Putin’s offer to keep crude flowing; how cash-strapped Europeans will react; and, more broadly, at what point a war of the US and Israel’s choosing spreads so far and wide that it becomes a world war. With alliances such as NATO no longer a given, how should the world deal with the danger? Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Daniel Whittington, Ilayda Habip.

Why this war of Donald Trump’s choosing? As death and destruction widen in Iran and across the region, and as oil and gas markets take fright, the US president’s reasons for launching what his administration calls Operation Epic Fury continue to shift, as do the stated scale and duration. What remains consistent is the White House’s messaging, cranked out over social media by Gen-Z handlers who have taken Silicon Valley’s “move fast and break things” mantra and turned it into memes – some even borrowing actual video-game footage. Is it working? Do the fireballs that kill real human beings in the Middle East inspire admiration and awe among voters in the United States? The fog of war is inherently performative: show that you are mighty and demonise the enemy. It is also meant to serve as a “rally ’round the flag” moment for leaders. Well, almost always. Is this war different? And how is it going for US and Israeli leaders who stand shoulder to shoulder while talking at cross purposes about its length and objectives?

Second week of a war seen more than ever as a massive gamble by the US and Israel: strikes on oil installations in Tehran prompting retaliation across the Gulf. Also blown away are claims that disruptions to global energy security would be only a passing blip. As the price of crude shoots past 100 dollars a barrel, Tehran signals it’s staying the course, with Mojtaba Khamenei – the hardline son of the assassinated Supreme Leader – chosen to take the reins of an under-siege Islamic Republic that still has the means to make its neighbours pay a price for Trump and Netanyahu’s war. Take Lebanon, where rocket attacks by Iran proxy Hezbollah have drawn a deluge of fire, a ground incursion by Israel, and the displacement of nearly 700,000 people. We’ll talk about the Lebanese president who wants direct talks with Israel and weigh ten days of destruction of lives and livelihoods. As for the price at the pump, Europe will arguably feel the effects more sharply than a US that is farther away and largely energy self-sufficient. Good luck glossing that over when France hosts the next G7 summit in June.

Who's paying for this war? First and foremost, the people of the Middle East, who are directly in harm's way. But who pays the financial cost if Iran continues to target the lifeline for the region's oil and gas? Maritime employers out of London are officially designating the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and the Persian and Arabian Gulf a "warlike operations area". We ask what that means and how much pain is to come. The United States is far less reliant on the region's crude than the last time Iran mined the narrow waterway that ships one-fifth of the planet's supply. But how about Asia and Europe, which is bracing for another Ukraine war-style jolt in natural gas prices? As France and the UK dispatch warships, how do NATO allies defend their interests without getting sucked into a war they didn't choose? How to handle a US president that's been pressuring them – with some success – to relax the switch to renewables and "drill, baby, drill"? More broadly, how vulnerable are Gulf states, whose petrodollars fuel massive investments in artificial intelligence and whose skyscrapers in the sand depend on that other precious lifeline: water? How safe are the Arabian Peninsula's desalination plants, for instance, in these dangerous times? Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Daniel Whittington, Ilayda Habip, Christophe Bauer.