Two Quants and a Financial Planner

This episode of Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together the most important ideas from a packed week of interviews, covering AI and base rates, the Magnificent Seven, commodities, macro risks, and practical investing frameworks. Jack Forehand and Kai Wu break down key clips from Michael Mauboussin, Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, Ben Hunt, Katie Stockton, and Aahan Menon to extract timeless lessons investors can apply across different market environments.The conversation moves from AI expectations and economic profit to geopolitical “common knowledge” moments, commodity dynamics, trend following, and the importance of thinking in probabilities and time horizons.Topics Covered:Why OpenAI’s growth expectations are historically unprecedented and what base rates actually tell usHow base rates should guide expectations without limiting outlier outcomes like AmazonWhy large companies are growing faster today and the role of intangible assets and softwareThe concentration of economic profit in the Magnificent Seven and what it implies for valuationsWhy long-term time horizons create a structural edge in investingThe concept of “common knowledge” and how it reshapes markets during geopolitical eventsWhere AI value will accrue: companies vs consumers vs suppliersWhy commodities behave differently from stocks and bonds during supply shocksHow trend following works and why commodities are uniquely suited to itWhy investing is a probabilities game and how to manage uncertainty and position sizingHow technical indicators like the 200-day moving average should actually be usedTimestamps:00:00 Intro and overview of Weekly Wrap format00:02:05 Michael Mauboussin on OpenAI growth and base rates00:06:18 Why base rates matter but don’t define outcomes00:09:50 Why large companies are growing faster than history suggests00:14:58 Kuppy on time horizons and avoiding short-term noise00:19:15 Ben Hunt on “common knowledge” and the Strait of Hormuz00:24:13 AI value accrual and consumer surplus vs company profits00:28:10 Commodities, backwardation, and why price trends differ from equities00:32:45 Trend following and why commodities exhibit stronger trends00:34:41 Investing as a game of probabilities and decision-making under uncertainty00:41:58 Katie Stockton on the 200-day moving average and technical signals00:46:20 Breadth, trend signals, and how technicals inform risk management00:50:30 Position sizing, uncertainty, and diversification frameworks00:55:40 Revisiting the Magnificent Seven and intangible assets00:59:00 Trend following frameworks and portfolio constructionCheck out the full episode and all of our interviews from this week on the Excess Returns YouTube channel and podcast platforms.

This episode of Excess Returns Weekly Recap breaks down one of the most complex market environments in recent memory, from the global oil shock and its economic ripple effects to base rates, AI-driven productivity, and private credit risks. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler synthesize insights from Bob Elliott, Chris Mayer, Robert, and Larry Swedroe to help investors understand what matters, what’s being mispriced, and where conviction should (and shouldn’t) exist.Topics covered:How oil supply shocks translate into inflation and reduced consumer spendingWhy oil demand is inelastic and creates mechanical economic slowdownsThe difference between consumer surplus and true productivity gains from AIWhy better tools don’t necessarily translate into higher earningsUnderstanding base rates and when it makes sense to bet against themHow extreme outliers drive market returns and portfolio constructionSurvivorship bias vs studying exceptional businesses the right wayPrivate credit risks, liquidity mechanisms, and media-driven narrativesWhy redemption fears in private credit may be overstatedThe importance of intellectual humility in macro investingWhy investors often have no edge in geopolitical forecastingIdentifying cross-asset mispricings instead of predicting outcomesHow AI may increase competition but not necessarily create more winnersThe persistence of winner-take-all dynamics across technological shiftsHow to think about conviction, uncertainty, and portfolio positioning in volatile environmentsTimestamps:00:00 Oil shock impact on consumer spending and inflation mechanics00:01:06 Why this market environment is unusually confusing for investors00:02:22 How oil supply shocks translate into price spikes and inflation00:05:20 The real-world impact of higher energy costs on household spending00:10:00 Base rates vs extreme outcomes in investing00:11:39 Survivorship bias and what investors misunderstand about outliers00:18:03 Private credit redemption risks and liquidity dynamics explained00:23:00 Media narratives vs actual cash flows in private credit funds00:27:11 AI productivity vs consumer surplus and why it matters00:30:26 Why better tools don’t always lead to higher earnings00:33:37 How to use base rates alongside conviction in investing decisions00:38:58 Why investors have no edge in predicting geopolitical outcomes00:41:00 Cross-asset signals and what markets may be mispricing00:45:12 How AI could reshape competition but not change winner dynamics00:47:57 When base rates break and how technological shifts reset expectations

This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest market drivers right now, including how markets price (or fail to price) war risk, why volatility signals are flashing unusual warnings, and what options market positioning is telling us about potential downside. Featuring Jared Dillian, Brent Kochuba and D.A. Wallach, the episode also explores how macro regime shifts are changing diversification, how the Fed is reacting to rising oil prices, and why biotech investing is essentially a portfolio of options.Topics Covered• Why markets struggle to price geopolitical risk and war probabilities• The concept of “willful ignorance” in market pricing of obvious risks• Implied vs realized volatility and what the VIX is signaling right now• Why volatility premium is near historic highs despite a relatively low VIX• How options flows and hedging activity influence stock market movements• The risk of a sudden volatility spike and what could trigger a VIX move to 40• The Fed’s dilemma with rising oil prices and inflation vs demand destruction• Why oil shocks can be both inflationary and deflationary at the same time• The idea of “path of least embarrassment” in Fed policy decisions• Biotech investing explained as a “bag of options” with probabilistic outcomes• How drug development stages impact valuation and expected returns• Regime change in markets and why stock-bond correlations have flipped• The concept of non-stationary markets and constantly changing investing rules• Why most investors fail to adapt during regime shifts• The “Awesome Portfolio” and diversification across economic regimes• How options dealer positioning and gamma exposure can amplify market moves• Why OPEX (options expiration) can act as a turning point for markets• The shift from short-term to longer-term hedging in uncertain environmentsTimestamps00:00 Why markets fail to price obvious risks like war03:30 The Ukraine example and delayed market reactions09:50 Volatility premium vs VIX and why the spread is unusual12:00 How hedging activity drives implied volatility higher16:30 Oil shock and the Fed’s policy dilemma18:40 Inflation vs demand destruction from higher energy prices23:00 Biotech investing as a portfolio of probabilistic outcomes27:00 Valuing drug pipelines using expected value and probabilities32:00 Regime change and the breakdown of stock-bond diversification35:00 Non-stationary markets and adapting to new investing rules47:00 The Awesome Portfolio and diversification across asset classes54:50 Options gamma and how dealer positioning impacts volatility57:00 Why a 2 to 3 percent drop could trigger a VIX spike to 40

In this episode, we break down the most important insights from the week on Excess Returns,, with insights from Vitaliy Katsenelson, Jim Paulsen, and Joseph Shaposhnik. Markets today are being shaped by powerful crosscurrents including AI disruption, defense spending, macro policy shifts, and historically high valuations. In this episode, we highlight the biggest ideas from our conversations and explore what they mean for investors trying to navigate an uncertain world. Topics include the importance of humility in investing, the potential disruption of software by AI, the growing divergence within the economy, and why long-term structural trends like defense spending may create new opportunities.Topics Covered• Why humility may be the most important trait for investors in a rapidly changing world• How uncertainty around AI, geopolitics, and macro policy is widening the range of possible market outcomes• Why some investors are reducing exposure to software businesses amid AI disruption• The importance of management teams that can adapt and evolve in periods of technological change• Jim Paulsen’s framework for understanding the “new era” economy versus the rest of the economy• Why a small portion of the economy may now be driving overall GDP growth• The idea that successful investing may be about being “least wrong” rather than perfectly right• How long-term structural trends like defense spending could create a multi-year investment tailwind• Why experienced investors focus on analyzing businesses rather than reacting to headlines• The potential deflationary impact of AI and how lower prices could shift spending across the economy• Why high market valuations may act as a headwind for future returns• The importance of deep research and preparation when unexpected events hit markets• Jim Paulsen’s concept of “policy juice” and how fiscal and monetary policy drive bull markets• Whether a new wave of policy support could broaden the current market rally beyond mega-cap techTimestamps00:00 Introduction02:00 Why humility matters more than ever in investing08:50 AI disruption and the future of software businesses18:07 The growing gap between the “new era” economy and the rest of the economy25:00 Surviving first and being the least wrong as an investor31:43 The potential defense spending supercycle37:44 AI’s deflationary impact and how innovation reshapes economies44:42 Why valuations act as a long-term headwind for stocks50:56 How investors should respond to geopolitical events56:49 Jim Paulsen on policy juice and the future of the bull market

In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler highlight the most important investing insights from recent conversations across the Excess Returns podcast network. Drawing on discussions with Andy Constan, Rob Arnott, Kai Wu, Ben Hunt, Rupert Mitchell, Meb Faber and others, the episode connects ideas across macro, markets, AI, credit cycles and valuation. The conversation focuses on timeless investing principles investors can apply today, including how to evaluate expert opinions, how AI may reshape markets and jobs, what defines a true market bubble, why international stocks may be benefiting from global fiscal spending, and why the best opportunities in markets often come after long periods of underperformance.Topics covered in this episodeHow to evaluate expert opinions during major market events and filter signal from noiseAndy Constan’s framework for judging credibility based on experience and confidenceWhy charts showing markets rising after wars are often misleading data miningThe difference between believing in AI technology and believing AI stocks are good investmentsHow AI could both replace and augment human work through the task based structure of jobsRob Arnott’s definition of a market bubble using implausible growth assumptionsWhy many technology leaders ultimately fail to justify the expectations priced into their stocksThe difference between software companies whose moat is code and those with durable intangible advantagesHow brand, switching costs, distribution and network effects protect enterprise software companiesWhy AI may be one of the most disruptive technologies in history and what that means for marketsMeb Faber on the myth that the easy money has already been made in international and value stocksThe behavioral challenge of holding unpopular strategies through long periods of underperformanceRob Arnott on why small cap value could outperform large cap growth over the next decadeBen Hunt on the point in every credit cycle when lenders say no moreHow rising costs of capital can trigger boom bust credit cyclesRupert Mitchell on why global equity markets often follow government fiscal spendingThe growing role of international fiscal policy and capital flows in global market leadershipTimestamps00:00 Introduction and the idea behind the weekly Excess Returns recap show03:00 Andy Constan on how to evaluate experts and filter market commentary11:40 Why charts showing markets rising after wars can be misleading17:00 Kai Wu on AI technology versus AI investments and the future of work25:37 Rob Arnott on how to define a market bubble using valuation assumptions29:35 Kai Wu on software moats, intangible assets and enterprise software durability35:31 Rob Arnott on how disruptive AI could be for the global economy39:54 Meb Faber on why the easy money has never been made in markets43:57 Rob Arnott on small cap value versus large cap growth opportunities48:39 Ben Hunt on credit cycles and the moment lenders pull back55:56 Rupert Mitchell on fiscal spending and global equity market performance

In this episode, we explore one of the most important but overlooked questions in investing: what is the purpose of your portfolio? Through a series of powerful clips and reflections from Aswath Damodaran, Meb Faber, Ben Hunt, Cullen Roche, Corey Hoffstein, Daniel Crosby, Larry Swedroe, and Wes Gray, we examine how goals like financial freedom, funded contentment, liability driven investing, retirement planning, and multi generational wealth shape the way we invest. This conversation goes beyond beating the market and focuses on preserving and growing wealth, reducing financial stress, aligning money with meaning, and defining what a life well lived truly looks like.Topics covered include:Why the end game of investing matters more than beating the marketPreserving and growing wealth vs trying to get richFreedom as the ultimate goal of financial independenceFunded contentment and what it means to live a life well livedLiability driven investing and matching assets to future needsThe difference between getting rich and staying richNeeds vs desires and understanding marginal utility of wealthRetirement planning and redefining success beyond a numberMulti generational wealth and thinking beyond your own lifetimeThe psychological impact of growing up with or without moneyFinancial freedom, stress reduction, and peace of mindTactical financial goals vs long term purpose driven investingEducation, legacy, and investing in the next generationWhy once you win the game you may not need to keep playingTimestamps:00:00 Aswath Damodaran on preserving and growing wealth10:04 Meb Faber on freedom, contentment, and the hedonic treadmill22:36 Ben Hunt on funded contentment and finding your pack28:23 Cullen Roche on risk as uncertainty of consumption33:25 Corey Hoffstein on liability driven investing and not worrying about money41:50 Daniel Crosby on financial freedom and living life on your own terms47:33 Larry Swedroe on needs vs desires and staying rich55:54 Wes Gray on big blue arrows, tactical goals, and peace of mind

In this episode, we discuss our biggest lessons from our interview with Bill Bengen, the creator of the 4 percent rule, and are joined by special guest Ben Tuscai.We explore how one of the most widely cited ideas in retirement planning was developed, how it is often misunderstood, and how it should actually be used in real-world financial planning. The conversation bridges academic research and practical application, digging into safe withdrawal rates, sequence of returns risk, inflation, portfolio construction, and what retirement planning really looks like across decades of uncertainty.• How and why Bill Bengen originally developed the 4 percent rule• What the 4 percent rule actually means and the most common ways it is misapplied• Why inflation and sequence of returns risk are the biggest threats to retirees• The role of diversification and asset allocation in safe withdrawal strategies• How market valuations and bond yields affect sustainable withdrawal rates• Why higher equity exposure can sometimes increase retirement safety• The evolution from the original 4 percent rule to higher safe max withdrawal rates• The psychology of retirement spending and sleeping well during market stress• Planning for longer retirements, early retirement, and rising healthcare costs• U-shaped and rising equity glide paths and why they can improve outcomes• Bucket strategies, cash reserves, and managing withdrawals through bear markets• When spending more or taking less risk makes sense after you have already “won the game”00:00 – Introduction and why the 4 percent rule still matters03:00 – Bill Bengen explains how the 4 percent rule was created06:00 – Worst historical retirement periods and inflation risk10:30 – How advisors actually use the 4 percent rule in practice15:30 – Inflation, bear markets, and sequence of returns risk18:30 – Market valuations, CAPE ratios, and withdrawal rate adjustments23:00 – Financial planning software versus simple rules of thumb27:00 – Sequence risk explained and why retirees can get hurt early31:00 – How diversification increased safe withdrawal rates over time37:00 – Safe max withdrawal rates and optimal equity allocation42:30 – Longer retirements, FIRE, and planning beyond 30 years45:30 – U-shaped and rising equity glide paths explained50:30 – Healthcare costs, longevity risk, and retirement stress testing56:30 – Bucket strategies, cash reserves, and dynamic withdrawalsMain Topics CoveredTimestamps

In this episode, we kick off our book project, "The Most Important Investing Lesson: What the World’s Best Investors Would Teach You", with a deep dive into the ideas of Michael Mauboussin. We explore his most enduring lessons—concepts that have reshaped how we think about investing, decision making, and life. From base rates to expectations investing, we unpack how Mauboussin’s frameworks can help investors build better models of the world and make more rational, probabilistic decisions.Main topics covered:Why base rates are the most underused yet powerful tool in investing and lifeHow to apply expectations investing and reverse engineer stock pricesWhy multiples are not valuation and how to earn the right to use shortcutsUnderstanding the paradox of skill and why luck matters more when everyone is goodLessons investors can apply across fields like business, sports, and personal decision makingHow humility, reference classes, and feedback loops improve judgmentReflections on learning, writing, and how AI tools are changing the creative processTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and the idea behind the book04:00 Michael Mauboussin on base rates and decision making10:00 Expectations investing and reversing the valuation process19:00 Multiples are not valuation—understanding shortcuts28:00 The paradox of skill and why luck matters more than we think38:00 How to apply these ideas in investing and life45:00 Closing thoughts and audience feedback on the book project

In this special episode, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski take you on a deep-dive mixtape journey through the best moments from their past three years of conversations with author and investor Chris Mayer. From the brutal patience required to ride out dead money periods to why the lack of a catalyst might be a feature, not a bug—this episode is packed with timeless investing wisdom. Whether you're chasing a hundred bagger or trying to hold through volatility, Mayer’s philosophy will challenge and inspire you.🔑 Topics Covered:Why “dead money” is often harder than drawdownsThe real challenge of holding long-term winnersThe myth of catalysts and the power of compoundingHow great businesses reveal their edge over timeThe emotional toll of patience—and how to cultivate itAligning capital with the right investor mindsetWhat Buffett’s evolution teaches us about reinvestment riskWhy most investors can’t handle uncertainty—and how that creates opportunityHow great investors and great CEOs think in decades, not quarters⏱️ Timestamps:00:00 Intro + Episode Setup02:07 Dead Money vs. Drawdowns10:00 Waiting Without a Catalyst18:15 The Real Test of Holding25:00 Aligning with Long-Term Capital35:00 Buffett and Value Investing 2.044:00 Management and Short-Term Thinking50:00 The True Meaning of Patience54:18 Outro + Closing Thoughts

In this episode, Matt Zeigler and Dave Nadig revisit one of the most popular interviews on Excess Returns—our deep-dive conversation with Neil Howe, co-author of The Fourth Turning. But instead of leaning into the usual doom-and-gloom narrative, they unpack the misunderstood lessons at the heart of Howe’s generational theory.From inflation and leadership to passive investing and community, Matt and Dave explore the deeper patterns shaping our society and markets—and why so many people miss the bigger picture.🎙️ Topics discussed include:Why the Fourth Turning is more about renewal than collapseThe misunderstood role of inflation in crisis periodsHow generational memory loss fuels leadership failureWhy passive investing might be the ultimate Millennial moveGen X’s emergence as a uniquely flawed (and necessary) leadership classHow conflict can become the incubator for lasting communityThis is not a forecast—it’s a framework. And it might just change how you see the world around you.

In this episode, we highlight the biggest lessons from our Excess Returns interview with renowned strategist Richard Bernstein. We explore the paradox of today’s markets: why they feel easy, and what hard truths may be hiding beneath the surface. From the risks of narrow market leadership to the role of structural flows and investor complacency, Richard shares practical lessons drawn from decades of market experience.We discuss:Why narrow markets may signal greater risk than investors realizeThe danger of mistaking easy markets for safe onesHow structural flows can prop up markets despite rising risksThe behavioral traps investors fall into during seemingly easy timesWhat history teaches us about mispricings and market resilienceWhether you’re focused on protecting capital or positioning for the next cycle, this conversation offers valuable insights into today’s market dynamics.

Some of the most insightful investment conversations start with a single question: “What do you believe that most of your peers disagree with?” In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive into 11 controversial investing takes—from QE and technical analysis to macro obsession and fee structures. You’ll hear nuanced perspectives from top investors who challenge conventional wisdom, and you might even find yourself rethinking your own beliefs.🧠 This is a fast-paced, thought-provoking ride through the investment ideas most likely to start a debate at your next finance happy hour.Topics Covered:Why QE may always be inflationary (Andy Constan)The case for separating advice fees from asset management fees (Rick Ferri)Why trimming and adding to positions might be a waste of time (Chris Mayer)A defense of free trade in a protectionist world (Jared Dillian)Why turnover isn't always a bad thing (Travis Prentice)Multidisciplinary investing vs. deep specialization (Cameron Dawson vs. Katie Stockton)When it’s OK to override your quant model (Joe Gubler)The trap of emulating famous investors (Rupert Mitchell)The entertainment vs. value tradeoff of macro (David Giroux)Rethinking shareholder primacy in today’s political landscape (Peter Atwater)Timestamps:00:00 - Intro & Why QE is Inflationary (Andy Constan)07:20 - Separate Fees for Advice & Management (Rick Ferri)11:00 - No Trimming or Trading Around Positions (Chris Mayer)15:30 - AI Will Be a Net Positive (Andrew Cohen)19:00 - The Case for Free Trade (Jared Dillian)23:30 - Turnover Isn't Always Bad (Travis Prentice)27:00 - Multidisciplinary Investing (Cameron Dawson)31:00 - Investing Solely on Technicals (Katie Stockton)34:00 - Overriding the Quant Model (Joe Gubler)41:00 - Don’t Try to Be the Next Buffett (Rupert Mitchell)44:00 - Macro Doesn’t Always Add Value (David Giroux)48:00 - Shareholders Don’t Come First Anymore (Peter Atwater)

In this special episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by Bogumil Baranowski to reflect on one of the most emotional and historic moments in financial history: Warren Buffett’s surprise announcement at the 2024 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. With commentary from voices who were in the room—and some who weren’t—we explore what it felt like, what it meant, and what comes next for Berkshire and Buffett’s legacy. Featuring clips from John Candeto, Adam Mead, Eric Markowitz, and Ted Merz, this is both a tribute and a thoughtful discussion on culture, succession, and enduring business values.Topics Covered:The emotional weight and historic nature of Buffett’s resignationFirsthand reactions from inside the room at the Berkshire meetingWhy Buffett’s delivery was masterful—and why it matteredReflections on the unique culture of Berkshire and its shareholder communityThe Buffett “shield” and what it means for Greg Abel and Berkshire's futureWhy more companies don’t emulate the Berkshire approachThe role of tradition in building enduring businessesPersonal stories of shareholders whose lives were changed by long-term compounding

In this episode of Excess Returns, we explore the profound impact of passive investing with one of the most provocative thinkers in the space—Mike Green. Mike has developed a framework that challenges traditional market assumptions, shedding light on how seemingly "passive" investment flows might be actively reshaping markets, valuations, and even systemic stability. Using clips from our interviews, Mike breaks down complex ideas with clarity, humor, and critical insight. This is a must-watch for anyone who wants to understand the hidden mechanics behind modern markets—and what they mean for your portfolio.Topics Covered:Why passive investors aren't truly passiveThe systemic risk behind the growth of index investingHow passive flows distort price discovery and market behaviorThe QDIA effect and its unintended consequencesThe breakdown of correlation between value and growth stocksWhy international markets continue to underperformMike's thoughts on unemployment data and the gig economyThe real lesson investors should take from all thisWhat individual investors can realistically do about it

In this episode, we dive deep into the fundamentals of retirement planning with one of the most respected researchers in the field—Wade Pfau. Wade is known for blending rigorous academic research with real-world financial advice. We explore his groundbreaking ideas on the 4% rule, sequence of returns risk, annuities, income frameworks, and his innovative Retirement Income Style Awareness (RISA) model. Whether you’re planning for retirement or advising others, this episode delivers valuable frameworks and perspectives you can apply immediately.**Topics Covered:*** Why the 4% rule is a U.S. artifact—and where it doesn’t work* The importance of sequence risk and how early retirement returns dominate long-term outcomes* Wade’s “Four Ls” of retirement planning: Lifestyle, Longevity, Liquidity, and Legacy* The limitations of fixed withdrawal strategies and the value of variable withdrawal rules* The misunderstood role of annuities and why risk pooling matters* How RISA helps investors match their personality and preferences to the right retirement strategy* The power of flexibility and focusing on what really matters in retirement

In this episode, we dive deep into some of the most thought-provoking ideas from two of the most original minds in investing: Ben Hunt and Grant Williams. Through a curated selection of powerful clips, we explore how markets have transformed from mechanisms of capital allocation to platforms of narrative and speculation. Ben and Grant challenge conventional wisdom, question the stories we tell ourselves about investing, and propose frameworks for navigating a radically different market landscape going forward. Whether it's the evolution of CEO incentives, the lifecycle of narratives, or why staying rich is harder than getting rich, this episode is packed with timeless insights.Topics Covered:Why what worked for 40 years may not work anymoreThe market as a political utility and what that really meansThe disconnection between stock prices and real businessesHow narratives shape market behavior and pricesThe language of growth vs. value in investingThe CEO’s evolving role as a storytellerUsing the narrative lifecycle as an investment frameworkSpeculation vs. investing and how to tell the differenceHow Ben Hunt applies the minimax regret framework to life decisions

In this episode, Jack and Matt revisit one of the most debated topics in investing: the fate of the classic 60/40 portfolio. Drawing on insights from some of the smartest minds in finance—Bob Elliott, Adam Butler, Warren Pies, Rick Ferri, Jared Dillian, Andrew Beer, and Cliff Asness—they explore whether the traditional stock/bond mix still makes sense in today's environment or if investors need to rethink diversification, risk, and portfolio construction entirely. With perspectives ranging from strong defenses of simplicity to sophisticated alternative strategies, this episode is a deep dive into what investors should consider in building resilient portfolios going forward.Topics Covered:Why the 60/40 portfolio worked—and why it might not anymoreThe impact of inflation, liquidity, and regime change on asset allocationRisk parity and quadrant-based frameworks for understanding market environmentsThe argument for real assets: real estate and commoditiesAn overview of the Awesome Portfolio and its performance profileThe rise of managed futures and how they improve diversificationThe psychology of investing in alternatives (and sticking with them)Rebalancing and the importance of sizing when adding alternativesCliff Asness on high-volatility alternatives and long-term risk-takingHow to think through alternatives as your portfolio grows

In this episode, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski dive deep into the timeless investing wisdom of Guy Spier. Drawing from Spier’s interviews on both Excess Returns and Talking Billions, they explore crucial ideas about investing, risk, decision-making, and living a meaningful life. From understanding why letting your winners run can enhance returns to redefining true success, this episode is packed with practical insights for both investors and anyone seeking a richer, more thoughtful life.Topics Covered:Why holding your winners can be essential to long-term successThe myth of the Fidelity “dead investor” study and what it teachesRisk, ruin, and why preserving capital matters more than getting richLessons from multi-generational wealth and building lasting fortunesUnderstanding the true cost of tinkering with a portfolioDefining your circle of competence — and updating it over timeHow to avoid catastrophic financial outcomesRethinking what success really means beyond moneyAligning your inner and outer self to find freedom and authenticityManaging other people’s money with care, respect, and humilityLearning from mistakes and the importance of reputationThe priceless value of community and true friendships

Join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski as they play our favorite clips from both the Excess Returns and Talking Billions podcast interviews with Aswath Damodaran. This conversation unpacks Damodaran’s timeless insights on navigating uncertainty, embracing the process of investing, and finding comfort in a volatile market. From the ritualistic allure of the Berkshire Hathaway meeting to the pitfalls of factor investing, Main Topics Covered:The dangers of rigid, ritualistic value investing and the Berkshire Hathaway meeting’s cult-like atmosphere, contrasted with its networking value.Embracing uncertainty as a feature of investing, not a bug, and avoiding unhealthy coping mechanisms like denial or outsourcing.The limitations of factor investing, emphasizing the need to bring unique value to the table to achieve excess returns.The stock market as a reflection of real-world business value, not a place where money is made, and the futility of fighting market dynamics.The importance of loving the investing process over obsessing about beating the market, with diversification as a safeguard against hubris.Balancing comfort investments with high-risk, high-reward opportunities to build a resilient portfolio.The rise of passive investing and its potential to create opportunities for active investors as fewer people seek market mistakes.The "sleep test" for investors—framing choices with gratitude and perspective to maintain peace of mind.

In this episode, dive into the complex world of tariffs, national debt, and economic policies under the current administration. With the S&P down 4% and markets reacting to recent policy shifts, we bring you insights from our previous interviews with Cullen Roche and Andy Constan to break down these pressing issues. This episode is designed for everyday investors and money managers alike, offering a balanced, practical perspective on navigating short-term market pain for potential long-term gains. Tune in as we hash out the facts, explore the implications, and share strategies to keep your portfolio steady amid the storm.Main Topics Covered:Tariffs Explained: A deep dive into how tariffs function as a corporate tax, their impact on domestic companies, and the challenges of passing costs to consumers.Market Reactions and Short-Term Pain: Analysis of the current market downturn and how policies like tariffs, immigration, and spending cuts contribute to anti-growth sentiment.Long-Term Goals of Policy Shifts: Discussion on the administration’s aim to onshore manufacturing and critical technologies, and the trade-offs involved.National Debt Concerns: Perspectives on whether the U.S. national debt poses an immediate crisis or a creeping inflationary risk, with insights from Cullen Roche and Andy Constan.DOGE Initiative: Examination of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as a propaganda tool and realistic estimates of potential budget savings.Investment Strategies: Practical advice on staying long-term focused, rebalancing portfolios, and seizing opportunities during market volatility.