Crossing Thin Ice

Can insurers treat premiums like a cheap loan — and when does that bet blow up? In this episode we unpack “investing for float”: where it can boost returns, why annuities and life blocks are fragile, and how gaps in ALM, liquidity and regulation can turn clever strategies into industry-wide risk. Practical checks for boards, investors and regulators throughout.

True business success often hinges less on the risks taken and more on the quality of judgment, timing, and execution. Yet, what precisely constitutes “good judgment” in the fast-paced world of commerce remains a profound, elusive question. How do leaders consistently make the right choices and identify the most probable paths to victory? Navigating this critical challenge is paramount for any enterprise aiming to thrive and secure its future. Read this story at  https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/good-judgment-with-risk-management 

Many of the most extreme dangers aren’t where people are looking. When risks are “in the light”—visible and priced—they get managed and shrink. But when risks are “in the dark” they quietly grow until a shock exposes them, often after it is too late to do anything about them. Hear about over 30 risks that are in the dark for many business leaders.  And a strategy for surviving.  Risks grow in the dark until the light finds them - but too late.  

What if the world's largest rainforest became a savanna? The Sahara was once lush. Could the Amazon face a similar fate within a generation?  Deforestation isn't just about trees. It's also about changing global weather patterns. Understanding environmental feedback loops is key to preparing for our future. Read this story at https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/deforestation-and-feedback-loops

Ever wished you could practice for those critical conversations or high-stakes scenarios before they happen? In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, Max Rudolph and David Ingram dive into the transformative power of AI simulations for risk management and professional development. Discover how these innovative AI-powered role-playing games allow Chief Risk Officers, actuaries, and their teams to hone communication skills, prepare for board presentations, navigate emerging risks, and even shape organizational risk culture. You can get personalized feedback from virtual mentors and gain invaluable experience in a safe, simulated environment.  Stop wishing you had a do-over.  Now you have have a try-before.  

Everything we know about economic growth is about to change. Demographics hold the key.This discussion explores how global demographics, from declining birth rates in developed nations to population growth in Africa, will redefine national and global GDP, reshape industries like insurance, and challenge political stability. We dive into the interconnected impacts of an aging world, climate change as a 'threat multiplier,' and the historical roots of population projections. Our world is aging, and the economy will be feeling the impact of that very soon.  

Do you believe higher risk always leads to higher returns? This podcast challenges that conventional wisdom. Max Rudolph and Dave Ingram explore the critical roles of judgment, timing, and execution in achieving successful outcomes. Through real-world examples and insightful discussions, they reveal why many businesses operate below the efficient frontier and how understanding these dynamics can lead to better business choices. Join us for practical insights that could transform your approach to risk management and enhance your enterprise risk management (ERM) program.

Are AI myths clouding your judgment? Join Dave and Max as they debunk the two most common fantasies about artificial intelligence, revealing the true story of its capabilities and risks. Discover the balance between harnessing AI as a partner and maintaining human oversight. This episode is a must for anyone navigating the evolving landscape of AI risk management.

Recent economic volatility, geopolitical tensions, and climate impacts are reshaping the landscape of risk. With insights on the importance of adapting scenario planning in turbulent times, this episode emphasizes preparing for unexpected futures and reevaluating assumptions to avoid costly missteps. Dave and Max highlight the interconnectedness of financial stability, regulatory pressures, and societal challenges, providing listeners with valuable strategies for enhancing their enterprise risk management programs to meet these challenges. 

Think you understand corporate risk? Listen in as we explore the ins and outs of SEC disclosures.  Are the risks that matter the most being buried?  What do you need to know to properly understand the Risk Factors section of the SEC filings.  

Explore how AI can enhance creative problem-solving within risk management. Dave and Max discuss the importance of adapting to emerging risks and the role AI can play in this process. From generating innovative ideas to providing instant feedback and keeping track of complex iterative processes, AI serves as a powerful partner for risk professionals. Tune in to discover practical strategies for leveraging AI to think creatively about risk management, improve decision-making, and stay ahead in an unpredictable world.

Insurance only works if we can all keep up with the rapid changes being brought on by climate change. In this  podcast,  Max Rudolph explores the challenges insurers face with wildfires, hurricanes, and the struggle to set fair premiums. They discuss the need for community resilience, regulatory shifts, and innovative predictive modeling. Join them to discover how homeowners can protect themselves in an unpredictable market and why sustainable practices are essential for the future of insurance.

Anyone who has worked in Risk Management has encountered individuals who, for one reason or another, do not believe that ERM is beneficial to a company.  In this podcast, Max and Dave examine 10 common Anti-ERM Beliefs and suggest ways to address them.  

Discover four scenarios that could reshape our world and your business. Max and Dave are always talking about how important it is to do stress tests.  Here are some examples of today’s risks to get you started.  Each of these scenarios is built off a plausible extrapolation of recent trends.  This podcast offers a deep dive into the dynamics that could have a major impact your organization. Tune in to prepare for the challenges ahead and turn potential threats into opportunities for growth.

Are we ready for the next wave of challenges? As the world evolves, so do the risks that come with it. From climate change to geopolitical tensions and the rapid rise of AI, the landscape is shifting in ways we may not fully comprehend. These emerging threats can disrupt businesses, economies, and even our daily lives. It's crucial to stay informed and proactive in our risk management strategies. Join us as we delve into the complexities of these risks and explore the measures we can take to navigate an uncertain future. Together, we can better prepare for what lies ahead.

Climate change isn’t just about heat. It’s also changing the chemistry of our oceans, with serious consequences for marine life and food security. In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, we examine how ocean acidification could accelerate ecosystem collapse. By Max Rudolph

Are you using RBC for your company’s risk capital calculations? In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph dive into the power of Own Factor Risk Formulas—customized risk metrics that can give insurers a clearer, faster, and more accurate picture of their capital needs that is easy to explain to executives and boards. From historical stress testing to AI-enhanced risk management, we explore how companies can move beyond regulatory formulas to build a model that truly fits their risk profile.

When building scenarios - It certainly does!  Think about how the 2008 financial crisis reshaped economic forecasts. Those who clung to pre-crisis assumptions faced severe consequences. Acknowledging a new starting point means more resilient strategies. By Max Rudolph

Ever wonder why the ‘best practices’ in ERM often fail? Here’s the secret.  ERM that does not fit the company will be rejected.  It will not transform the company.  Imagine an ERM program that your whole company supports.  That is what you need.  By Dave Ingram

The future belongs to those who learn to adapt. In this, the 48th episode of Crossing Thin Ice, Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph dive into the importance of adaptability in modern business. Explore how the new Adaptor role will help companies to anticipate challenges, leverage opportunities, and embed resilience into every decision.