Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

It's been said that there's no place like Texas, and this year's Senate primaries seem to confirm the suspicion. We've got a cast of characters that includes incumbent John Cornyn up against the likes of AG Ken Paxton and TX-38's Wesley Hunt on the one side, and a couple of young challengers like Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico hoping to shake things up for Democrats. To cover these big, bold, brash races and some of the 14 open House primaries, Henry sits down with Gromer Jeffers of The Dallas Morning News. Plus, Henry takes a close look at a few ads coming out of the race for Mikie Sherrill's old seat, New Jersey 11. 

With an election year upon us, it's time to brace yourselves for candidates making their way onto your television, tablet and smartphone screens with messages catered to inspire and outrage you, the coveted primary voter. This means Henry is back with the Ad of the Week, this time taking a close look at Illinois' Senate frontrunner Raja Krishnamoorthi, the Democrat looking to replace soon-to-be-retired Dick Durbin. For contrast, we head south to Texas, where Chip Roy aims to leverage his name recognition in a bid to be the Lone Star State's next Attorney General.And in light of Mary Peltola's announcement that she'll challenge Dan Sullivan for his Senate seat, Henry takes us out with a rant about the latest in the Democratic Party's gambit to retake the upper chamber. 

We're finally just 10 months away from the 2026 midterms everyone's been on about since Trump returned to office! So to get us off to a good start, Henry sits down again with RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende. The duo considers the political waves that may ripple out from two potentially seismic Supreme Court decisions: Callais v. Louisiana and National Republican Senatorial Committee v. FEC; they search for precision in assessing the president's needed approval rating among registered voters to keep the House; and they move over to the ostensibly safe Senate to determine the merits of Democrats' claim that their top-billed candidates can triumph over untested Rs trying to hold their party's home turf.

It's time for the annual Beyond the Polls Festivus episode! That's right, before you immerse yourself entirely into the holiday spirit, join Henry for one last rant of 2025. On his naughty list you'll find pollsters with dodgy models; an unrestrained Mr. President, who's back to tweeting and ugly truthing his way into unpopularity; and who can forget the centrist Democrats? Or, wait...how could we not forget them when they fail to deliver results? But it ain't all bad! Stay tuned to the end for credit given to this year's great feats of strength, shown both by the progressive base over their own party and DJT's TKO of MTG.

One week out from Thanksgiving, Henry's back in a mood to rant! He starts out in Tennessee to bring some clarity to the mixed messages you may be receiving from analyses of the special election. Next, he looks at how the economy and the shutdown may be weighing down Trump's approval rating, and considers how the dealmaker-in-chief could get his groove back. And finally, he takes a look at Marjorie Taylor Greene's decision to resign, considering how this and other coming retirements will complicate the lives of partisan leaders who have to worry about not only their opponents in Congress but also challenges from in-party activists.

American politics is so full of dazzling spectacles — campaigns and rallies, gotcha questions and scandals — that it's often lost on even knowledgeable spectators how much process matters in turning a candidate into a nominee. The Democratic National Committee is thinking along these lines as 2028 approaches, as evidenced by the Rules and Bylaws Committee's October resolution to consider changes to its nominating calendar. Longstanding member and Brookings fellow Elaine Kamarck returns to the show to take us to primary school, explaining why the process has worked as it has and what might be in store for the party going forward.

One consolation of defeat is that it provides an opportunity to adapt to reality. Victors, on the other hand, tend to get lost in the high. Just a week before the Democratic Party's landslide last Tuesday,  Simon Bazelon released the "Deciding to Win" report in the hopes of persuading liberal elites that they're alienating moderates within their traditional ranks. While the 70-page fact sheet has not been especially well-received on Bluesky, Simon gets a warm welcome from Henry, friend of political data analysts all. The duo discusses the party's liberal slide since 2012 and what the "rising American electorate" thinks of it. Tune in for a detailed chat on winning elections in a country where policy trumps personality.

The autopsy is in: Republicans were slaughtered. Henry's on a rant this week, and he's brought his scalpel to supply surgical analysis of the election results for the statewide races in Virginia and New Jersey, the mayoral melee in New York City, and even smaller items like the redistricting proposition in California. Henry surveys the big night for Democrats, revealing the extent to which it bodes well for the party looking to take back a federal branch or two in the coming years. Tune in to understand what Tuesday's route means for those who bleed dark blue or bright red, along with those who lean more lightly.

They say "Virginia is for Lovers," but modest observers would hardly fail to notice that the state has developed a reputation for regularized breaks with whichever party is running things in nearby Washington, D.C. Old Dominion residents Henry and J. Miles Coleman of UVA's Center for Politics discuss the Republicans' chances of holding on in an election made wild by an especially surprising October. Plus, the two look North for a view of the face-off between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli; and stay tuned to the end for a couple of obscure races to keep an eye on. Happy Election Day, everybody!

Barring an unfathomable election day surprise, the thirty-four-year-old Zohran Mamdani will be moving into New York City's Gracie Mansion in January. The Democratic Socialist has made extraordinary promises to the citizens of the nation's largest city, and it's about time to start weighing the implications. To that end, Henry sits down with E.J. McMahon of the Manhattan Institute. The two discuss the executive powers of the office itself, along with the various bodies (from the city council to the state house and up to the White House) that will either help or hinder the frontrunner's grand plans.

Listeners of this podcast have surely spent an election day evening glued to a screen as they watched results trickle in. But have you ever wondered how those results are disseminated? Or how races are called ahead of the final count? To get us up to speed on the process, Henry chats with Michael Prusser and Geoffrey Skelley of the preeminent election results provider, Decision Desk HQ. Tune in for a fascinating discussion on how data-driven political animals work around the clock to get you the right election results faster than ever — and stay tuned til the end if you're interested in what experts will be looking for as votes come in from Virginia and New Jersey.

We're one week into the government shutdown, and every day it remains thus Democrats have reason to fear what OMB Director Russ "The Reaper" Vought is planning. This is only the latest development that has conservatives optimistic about the prospects of an American restoration. To that end, Henry chats with Eric Teetsel, CEO of the Center for Renewing America. Eric explains the CRA's founding under Vought in 2021 and what they're up to today, now that the MAGA movement has its people back in the White House.

Federal employees may be out of the office indefinitely, but politics breaks for no one in America. So Henry is back with a rant to keep us up on the unsettled terrain that partisans are clamouring over. He looks into how the government shutdown blame game might play out; he dives into the latest Economist/YouGov public opinion data to disentangle the issues that animate partisans and moderates; and then leaves the drama of Washington aside to check in on the approaching races in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City.

The great trouble with contemporary polling comes down to drawing a representative analysis from one-word responses. It's not just polling sceptics that have noticed this limitation, which is why Scott Rasmussen of the Napolitan Institute teamed up with Yasmin Green, CEO of Google AI incubator Jigsaw, to create the We the People project ahead of our nation's 250th birthday. The initiative incorporates chatbot technology to draw Americans from all 435 congressional districts into a conversation that allows them to voice their nuanced takes on American politics and to add substance to their stances.  Henry sits down with the duo to hear more about the just-launched program to hear more about the exciting program and the good news that has emerged from their early findings.

If you've ever been of the habit this time of year to watch primetime professional football, you will have certainly encountered today's guest, Michele Tafoya. What you may not have known was that she was an astute observer of American politics. Now, with the NBC Sunday Night Football days behind her, Michele hosts her own podcast to discuss the matters she once had to keep off the field. Michele sat down with Henry to discuss her political awakening and conversion to conservatism; her frustrations with what the DFL has done to her beloved Minnesota; and the nudges she receives to throw her hat in the ring as a candidate.

The game has changed, and it's time to throw out the old playbook. So asserts Chris Hayes, host of  MSNBC's "All In with Chris Hayes," in his latest book, The Sirens' Call: How Attention Became the World's Most Endangered Resource. He and Henry sat down on Wednesday to discuss the most fought-after commodity of the Digital Age: attention. They explore how our sleek modern tools have altered the way campaigns are executed, and why the political winners of this century will be those who can wield the gadgets of the future while possessing the ancient charisma that moves the people.

Norwegian polls close on Monday, and a whopping 10 parties are vying to expand their share of the 169 seats in the nation's parliamentary body, the Storting. Nils Andresen of Minerva, Norway's conservative periodical, joins Henry to discuss the tightening race between the dominant Red-Green and Civic Bloc coalitions, as well as the internal shuffling among their constituents. Tune in for a survey of the Labour Party's late recovery and the rise of the right-populist Progress Party, along with commentary on the smaller players, such as the reconstruction efforts of the formerly-Maoist Red Party, the coalition shift of the agrarian Centre Party, and the objective of the independent Patient Focus.

There's no denying that Democrats are in hot water after Donald Trump's surprising big win last November. The Brookings Institution's William Galston considers the party's oft-mentioned "disarray" to be exactly what one ought to expect under the circumstances. With many years of political advising under his belt and a cool head primed for strategic thinking, he chats with Henry about the Democratic Party's advantage heading into the midterms, the leadership vacuum, and the question of whether moderates will prevail in the near future.

Texas has fired the first shots of the redistricting war of 2025, so Henry's back with a rant for all who are still a tad confused, either by the controversy as it stands and/or where it's headed now that other states are drafting their own battle plans. Tune in for a detailed analysis of various states' statutes and cartographic reserves ahead of potential gerrymanders; essential data inputs to make sense of President Trump's approval rating; and a close look at the races that will determine control of that other legislative chamber.

A decade has passed since Donald Trump rode down the golden escalator to initiate a movement to make America great again, but conflicts within the coalition emerge like clockwork, proving that a definitive interpretation remains elusive. Is MAGA simply the net effect of Donald Trump's musings and maneuvers? Or is there a core ideology that successors carry on when Trump exits and the realignment settles? Josh Hammer joins Henry today to answer these big-picture questions and to propose the essential intermediate-term considerations.