Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

In one-party states, turnover is rare. So when Dick Durbin gives up the Senate seat he's held since 1997, we'd expect some movement. And, wow oh wow, are ambitious Illinis on the move! To introduce us to the ensemble casts crowding up key races, Henry sits down with Cook Political Report's Erin Covey. Henry also explains the Iron Law of Primaries and digs further into early findings on public attitudes about the war in Iran. Plus, we have competing ads from the Illinois Senate race, along with an attack ad against Thomas Massie that indicates midterm party priorities. (And we're flagging an innovative ad featuring Bobby Rush that uses artificial intelligence to boost his endorsement of Jesse Jackson Jr.)

The first primaries for the 2026 midterms came last week, and Henry's flying solo to survey the results. Tune in for analysis on James Talarico's victory over TX-30 Rep. Jasmine Crockett for the Democratic Senate nomination; incumbent John Cornyn's top-finish against Ken Paxton in the runoff-bound Republican bid; House seats in the Lone Star State and North Carolina; along with thoughts on President Trump's recent approval ratings bump and polling on condition-based sentiments about the sudden onset of war in the Middle East. Plus, this week's dueling ads provide a contrast in style and sensibility that overshadows even the partisan divide.

Voters in Texas will cast ballots for aspiring nominees next Tuesday, so Gromer Jeffers of The Dallas Morning News returns to Beyond the Polls for a close look at the Lone Star State's key races: From James Talarico's attempt to catch Jasmine Crockett for the Democratic Senate nomination, to the seemingly runoff-bound duel between Ken Paxton and incumbent John Cornyn; and let's not forget some of the hotshots fighting for House seats: Brandon Harerra gunning for scandal-ridden Tony Gonzalez in TX-23 and Colin Alred making a go for familiar territory in the newly-redrawn TX-33.Henry draws our attention abroad this week. Another opening for ReformUK in the Gorton and Denton by-election, along with positive polling for Australia's One Nation Party, reminds us that conservative-populism is a global phenomenon. Plus, there are bold ads and then there are jaw-droppers. Juliana Stratton's profanity-laced spot is sure to get her some attention as she tries to take Dick Durbin's seat in the US Senate.

Now that we're back into the campaign swing, Beyond the Polls is grooving into familiar rhythms. That means we've got a weekly rant, a great guest, and an ad or two worth diving into. This week, Ryan Girdusky, host of "It's a Numbers Game," joins Henry to discuss how the GOP is only just finding its footing a decade into its shakeup. Plus, Henry gives an update on Trump's approval rating, salutes Gallup for its many years of tracking that metric, and takes a look at a couple of bold primary spots: one out of the Texas Senate primary, the other from Illinois-8.And take a look at Henry's new series, Conservative Crossroads, where he moderates debates between representatives of the American Right's competing factions. 

You may recall the recent brouhaha over mid-decadal redistricting and the hand-wringing over blatantly partisan gerrymandering. But it isn't only cynical insiders who determine the balance of our House of Representatives; the American people play their part when they make long-distance moves. To talk all things reapportionment, Henry is joined again by Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball. Plus, Henry's got a trio of ads centered on the Democratic primary for John Cornyn's contested Senate seat.

It's rant time! The president's approval numbers are looking awfully similar to those in February of Trump's first term, and that depletion of political capital since Inauguration Day 2025 ought to make Republicans more than a little nervous. Henry breaks down public opinion polling on the hot-button issues in the headlines, along with an analysis of self-described MAGA and non-MAGA voters within the GOP. He also takes a look at the astounding fundraising numbers that midterm hopefuls are walking around with these days.Plus, progressive influencer Kat Abughazaleh has her eye on the Illinois-9 House seat, and she has a couple of new ads out that are sure to earn the attention of would-be constituents.

In safe and many-mandered Illinois, Democratic primary elections are where the action is. And when an abiding figure like Dick Durbin announces he's giving up his US Senate seat, you can expect an eventful season. To take a close look at the flurry of ambitious hopefuls in that race, along with the ensemble-sized casts running in US House districts 2, 7, and 9, Henry sits down with Greg Bishop, Illinois editor at The Center Square. Stay tuned til the end for breakdowns of subtle, yet effective ads from Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy and New Jersey 11 hopeful Brendan Gill.

It's been said that there's no place like Texas, and this year's Senate primaries seem to confirm the suspicion. We've got a cast of characters that includes incumbent John Cornyn up against the likes of AG Ken Paxton and TX-38's Wesley Hunt on the one side, and a couple of young challengers like Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico hoping to shake things up for Democrats. To cover these big, bold, brash races and some of the 14 open House primaries, Henry sits down with Gromer Jeffers of The Dallas Morning News. Plus, Henry takes a close look at a few ads coming out of the race for Mikie Sherrill's old seat, New Jersey 11. 

With an election year upon us, it's time to brace yourselves for candidates making their way onto your television, tablet and smartphone screens with messages catered to inspire and outrage you, the coveted primary voter. This means Henry is back with the Ad of the Week, this time taking a close look at Illinois' Senate frontrunner Raja Krishnamoorthi, the Democrat looking to replace soon-to-be-retired Dick Durbin. For contrast, we head south to Texas, where Chip Roy aims to leverage his name recognition in a bid to be the Lone Star State's next Attorney General.And in light of Mary Peltola's announcement that she'll challenge Dan Sullivan for his Senate seat, Henry takes us out with a rant about the latest in the Democratic Party's gambit to retake the upper chamber. 

We're finally just 10 months away from the 2026 midterms everyone's been on about since Trump returned to office! So to get us off to a good start, Henry sits down again with RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende. The duo considers the political waves that may ripple out from two potentially seismic Supreme Court decisions: Callais v. Louisiana and National Republican Senatorial Committee v. FEC; they search for precision in assessing the president's needed approval rating among registered voters to keep the House; and they move over to the ostensibly safe Senate to determine the merits of Democrats' claim that their top-billed candidates can triumph over untested Rs trying to hold their party's home turf.

It's time for the annual Beyond the Polls Festivus episode! That's right, before you immerse yourself entirely into the holiday spirit, join Henry for one last rant of 2025. On his naughty list you'll find pollsters with dodgy models; an unrestrained Mr. President, who's back to tweeting and ugly truthing his way into unpopularity; and who can forget the centrist Democrats? Or, wait...how could we not forget them when they fail to deliver results? But it ain't all bad! Stay tuned to the end for credit given to this year's great feats of strength, shown both by the progressive base over their own party and DJT's TKO of MTG.

One week out from Thanksgiving, Henry's back in a mood to rant! He starts out in Tennessee to bring some clarity to the mixed messages you may be receiving from analyses of the special election. Next, he looks at how the economy and the shutdown may be weighing down Trump's approval rating, and considers how the dealmaker-in-chief could get his groove back. And finally, he takes a look at Marjorie Taylor Greene's decision to resign, considering how this and other coming retirements will complicate the lives of partisan leaders who have to worry about not only their opponents in Congress but also challenges from in-party activists.

American politics is so full of dazzling spectacles — campaigns and rallies, gotcha questions and scandals — that it's often lost on even knowledgeable spectators how much process matters in turning a candidate into a nominee. The Democratic National Committee is thinking along these lines as 2028 approaches, as evidenced by the Rules and Bylaws Committee's October resolution to consider changes to its nominating calendar. Longstanding member and Brookings fellow Elaine Kamarck returns to the show to take us to primary school, explaining why the process has worked as it has and what might be in store for the party going forward.

One consolation of defeat is that it provides an opportunity to adapt to reality. Victors, on the other hand, tend to get lost in the high. Just a week before the Democratic Party's landslide last Tuesday,  Simon Bazelon released the "Deciding to Win" report in the hopes of persuading liberal elites that they're alienating moderates within their traditional ranks. While the 70-page fact sheet has not been especially well-received on Bluesky, Simon gets a warm welcome from Henry, friend of political data analysts all. The duo discusses the party's liberal slide since 2012 and what the "rising American electorate" thinks of it. Tune in for a detailed chat on winning elections in a country where policy trumps personality.

The autopsy is in: Republicans were slaughtered. Henry's on a rant this week, and he's brought his scalpel to supply surgical analysis of the election results for the statewide races in Virginia and New Jersey, the mayoral melee in New York City, and even smaller items like the redistricting proposition in California. Henry surveys the big night for Democrats, revealing the extent to which it bodes well for the party looking to take back a federal branch or two in the coming years. Tune in to understand what Tuesday's route means for those who bleed dark blue or bright red, along with those who lean more lightly.

They say "Virginia is for Lovers," but modest observers would hardly fail to notice that the state has developed a reputation for regularized breaks with whichever party is running things in nearby Washington, D.C. Old Dominion residents Henry and J. Miles Coleman of UVA's Center for Politics discuss the Republicans' chances of holding on in an election made wild by an especially surprising October. Plus, the two look North for a view of the face-off between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli; and stay tuned to the end for a couple of obscure races to keep an eye on. Happy Election Day, everybody!

Barring an unfathomable election day surprise, the thirty-four-year-old Zohran Mamdani will be moving into New York City's Gracie Mansion in January. The Democratic Socialist has made extraordinary promises to the citizens of the nation's largest city, and it's about time to start weighing the implications. To that end, Henry sits down with E.J. McMahon of the Manhattan Institute. The two discuss the executive powers of the office itself, along with the various bodies (from the city council to the state house and up to the White House) that will either help or hinder the frontrunner's grand plans.

Listeners of this podcast have surely spent an election day evening glued to a screen as they watched results trickle in. But have you ever wondered how those results are disseminated? Or how races are called ahead of the final count? To get us up to speed on the process, Henry chats with Michael Prusser and Geoffrey Skelley of the preeminent election results provider, Decision Desk HQ. Tune in for a fascinating discussion on how data-driven political animals work around the clock to get you the right election results faster than ever — and stay tuned til the end if you're interested in what experts will be looking for as votes come in from Virginia and New Jersey.

We're one week into the government shutdown, and every day it remains thus Democrats have reason to fear what OMB Director Russ "The Reaper" Vought is planning. This is only the latest development that has conservatives optimistic about the prospects of an American restoration. To that end, Henry chats with Eric Teetsel, CEO of the Center for Renewing America. Eric explains the CRA's founding under Vought in 2021 and what they're up to today, now that the MAGA movement has its people back in the White House.

Federal employees may be out of the office indefinitely, but politics breaks for no one in America. So Henry is back with a rant to keep us up on the unsettled terrain that partisans are clamouring over. He looks into how the government shutdown blame game might play out; he dives into the latest Economist/YouGov public opinion data to disentangle the issues that animate partisans and moderates; and then leaves the drama of Washington aside to check in on the approaching races in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City.