ChinaTalk

Eric Robinson, Tony Stark , Justin Mc , and Secretary of Defense Rock join me to score the Iran conflict. We discuss… Whether Iran’s Strait of Hormuz toll booth is a Trump card or a wasting asset How the administration fumbled the messaging on the war’s most heroic moment — the JSOC pilot rescue deep inside Iran The Prussia 1806 parallel: are we a great military machine that’s forgotten how to fight? Colby’s bizarre knife fight with Pope Leo McMasterism, dereliction of duty, and why no one is pushing back song: https://suno.com/s/uGE7Es3ELd6r8ao5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ukrainian drone manufacturing. How has the country been able to build hundreds of thousands, even millions of drones over the past four years of conflict? What dependencies does its industrial base still have on China? And what lessons does its rapid scaling offer for the rest of the world? To discuss, we’re joined by Cat Buchatskiy, Director of Analytics at Snake Island, a military analytical group, along with Chris Miller Our conversation covers: How battlefield pressure forced Ukraine to build a drone war machine from scratch — from a handful of soldiers flying off-the-shelf drones to domestic assembly at a massive scale. Ukraine’s industrial legacy and whole-of-society mobilization repurposed its civilian tech sector into a wartime industrial base. Why modular design, frontline reassembly, and tight feedback loops allow Ukraine to iterate faster than traditional defense systems. The constraints of global supply chains, the impact of export controls, and how China is playing both sides of the war. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

An F-15E is down in southern Iran. Justin, Tony, Eric and I talk through what combat search and rescue actually looks like, how a captured pilot changes the politics of ending this war, and why a hostage makes the "pack up and go home" play functionally impossible. Then: the AWACS that "only" lost a third of itself on a Saudi tarmac, why CENTCOM is still parking high-value aircraft like it's 2003, and what Operation Spiderweb and three years of Ukrainian drone warfare should have taught us but didn't. Plus Pete Hegseth's ongoing purge of the officer corps, the Enron theory of Pentagon innovation, and why the War of 1812 is the best analogy for where this is all heading. Tony's article on CENTCOM sucking: https://www.breakingbeijing.com/p/what-did-we-learn-centcom Justin on just war: https://justinmc.substack.com/p/just-war-theory song: https://suno.com/s/vroapDDimBnmCxdO Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The history of the American federal civil service — what can we learn from its past glories and failures, and where should we take this next? We have ⁠Kevin Hawickhorst⁠ of the Foundation for American Innovation to discuss: The Pendleton Act myth — Why civil service reform didn’t begin or end with Pendleton, and why starting the story there misses what actually made the system work. The rise of the subject-matter state — How early 20th-century agencies staffed with real experts — entomologists, engineers, agronomists — made the U.S. bureaucracy arguably the most capable in the world. From expertise to org charts — How mid-century functional reorganization hollowed out mission-driven agencies and replaced subject knowledge with process management. What competence delivered — From agricultural breakthroughs to infrastructure build-out, what a serious, technically grounded civil service was able to accomplish. Whether we can rebuild — DOGE, the abundance movement, state capacity, and why this might be the best time in decades to make the government work again. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jen Pahlka is an American Hero, in a past life the US Deputy Chief Technology Officer and member of the Defense Innovation Board. She wrote Recoding America and the wonderful Eating Policy substack (https://www.eatingpolicy.com/?utm_campaign=profile_chips). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Full house with Bryan, Eric, Tony and Justin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nathan Lambert of https://www.interconnects.ai/ and Jasmine Sun of https://jasmi.news/ catch up. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The administration is reportedly considering seizing Kharg Island, and the global economy is beginning to buckle under the pressure of disrupted energy flows. Eric Robinson is a lawyer now who worked in NCTC, a veteran of Joint Special Operations Command. He joins Second Breakfast regulars Bryan Clark, Tony Stark, and Justin McIntosh to break down the military and strategic realities of America's latest Middle Eastern war. We discuss… The Kharg Island fantasy and why a coup de main three weeks too late is a recipe for catastrophe "How are you going to take Kharg Island? You have no ships in the Persian Gulf." Why "lethality maxim" is not a theory of victory and the Iranians know it "A focus on a gunfight is why we're in this strategic mess to begin with. There's no amount of successful engagements that will become strategically meaningful if you don't have a vision of victory." The NCTC resignation, its anti-Semitic undertones, and the hollowing out of American counterterrorism infrastructure "An institution that was designed to fix the leaks that gave rise to 9/11, staffed with extraordinary analytic capacity, started chasing the Sinaloa cartel." Whether Iran can strike the US homeland — and why the dog hasn't barked "Did we build a titanium golem that was really a clay monster? Did we dramatically overestimate this operational capacity?" The naval escort nightmare: how keeping the Strait open would consume the entire destroyer fleet and gut Pacific deterrence "If you do this escort operation, it's going to take every available destroyer on the East Coast and in Europe for the duration." DHS corruption, Corey Lewandowski's hundreds of millions, and why American grift has graduated to a new level "Even in somewhere like China, you still have to kind of hide it. You can't just be tweeting out the deals that you're making to make yourself billions of dollars." Song: https://suno.com/s/FK4kifdAbVykiRax Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A century-old toy company has taken down Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs with a self-funded lawsuit. But how? Today’s guest is Rick Woldenberg, CEO of Learning Resources, creator of Spike the Fine Motor Hedgehog, and a successful Supreme Court plaintiff in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump. Co-hosting is Peter Harrell, who submitted an amicus brief on the tariff case that shook the world. Our conversation covers: David v. Goliath — Why a mid-sized toy company sued when industry giants stayed silent, and what that says about incentives and courage in corporate America. The Existential Math — How tariff costs were set to jump from $2 million to $100 million, putting 500 jobs and a century-old family business at risk. Why Manufacturing Stays in China — The hard economics of toy production, supply-chain concentration, and why moving to Vietnam, India, or Mexico isn’t a simple fix. Rule of Law and Refunds — What it means to win at the Supreme Court, what should happen with the overcollected tariffs, and the constitutional guardrails around taxation. Legacy and Responsibility — Why taking a stand was necessary to protect this company’s mission. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

WarTalk launches! We chat with Pranay Vaddi (MIT, Sandia, formerly Biden NSC) and Chris McGuire (State, NSC, now CFR) about AI, nuclear command and control, deterrence, and how new military technologies could reshape strategic stability. We cover why the U.S. insists on keeping humans in the loop for nuclear employment decisions, where AI may still play a role in warning and decision support, and how drone warfare, undersea detection, and strategic AI capabilities could change the future of war. 05:00 How “human in the loop” became U.S. nuclear policy12:25 Accident risk, NC3, and the new dangers AI could introduce20:25 Where AI could help: targeting, planning, and decision support57:25 The bigger issue: proliferation of AI-enabled strategic military capabilities1:07:30 Tactical nuclear use, escalation, and lessons from recent wars1:17:40 What an AI nonproliferation regime might actually look like1:32:15 Civilian harm, targeting mistakes, and whether AI makes war more or less humane suno song: https://suno.com/s/d1tG4bBVnCULgQqd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Two weeks into the US-Iran war, CENTCOM has struck 6,000 targets, but Hormuz is closed, oil is at $100 a barrel, the regime hasn’t fallen, and 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium sit somewhere under rubble. Shashank Joshi of The Economist, Justin Mc, and Tony Stark drop in to Second Breakfast for week two of the Iran war. We discuss… Why CENTCOM’s 6,000-target tally sounds like a Vietnam body count The staggering failure to prepare for mine and drone countermeasures for the one strait CENTCOM exists to keep open The prospect of a special forces raid to seize Iran’s HEU How AI targeting machines like Maven can generate industrial-scale target banks without a theory of victory Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Xu of http://interconnected.blog/ and I did a liveshow on substack! We chat about why working in Chinese AI looks so much tougher than building in the West: less compute, lower upside, more political constraints, and a much weaker market for enterprise software. We also get into Kevin Xu's definitive history of open source in China (https://interconnected.blog/chinese-open-source-a-definitive-history/?ref=kevin-xus-interconnected-newsletter) and talk why open source has become one of the few real paths Chinese AI companies have to win users abroad, even as the business model at home remains brutal. Also: the Qwen shakeup at Alibaba, what it says about the limits of China’s AI lab ecosystem, and why Chinese firms may still beat the West in areas like AI shopping and commerce. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Russell Kaplan, co-founder of Cognition — the company behind Devin — and previously at Scale AI and Tesla, joins the podcast to discuss what “software abundance” could mean for government. Our conversation covers… Why government software is so broken — Despite spending over $100B annually on IT, critical systems at agencies like the Social Security Administration and U.S. Department of the Treasury still run on decades-old code that few engineers know how to modify. How two-year software projects become three-week ones — why AI agents are particularly good at the painful migration and modernization work engineers tend to avoid. What “software abundance” actually means — AI agents can handle the tedious work of switching systems 24/7, collapsing the switching costs, and forcing software vendors to compete on value rather than locking customers into outdated systems. AI for cybersecurity — From triaging massive vulnerability backlogs to automatically fixing CVEs, AI will be essential for defending critical infrastructure as attackers gain the same tools. The coming “post-coding” world — As models converge in capability, the key bottleneck shifts from writing code to understanding problems, reviewing systems, and deciding what should be built in the first place. Plus, the future of procurement in an AI world, fraud detection in government datasets, the DMV as a software problem, and why Kaplan thinks the real skill of the future is knowing which problems matter. Thanks so much to Cognition for sponsoring this episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Frank Kendall served as the 26th Secretary of the Air Force from 2021 to 2025. Before that he was Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics under Obama. His new book, Lethal Autonomy: The Future of Warfare, comes out in June. Cohosting today is Bryan Clark of Hudson, JustinMc and Eric Robinson. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike Horowitz, Penn Professor and Biden DoD official who wrote 3000.09, clears up some autonomous weapons misconceptions! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

An all-star cast today with: Emmy Probasco, a fellow at Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) and former Navy officer with deep expertise in autonomous weapons and military AI adoption; Michael Horowitz, a University of Pennsylvania professor who previously ran the Pentagon office that rewrote U.S. policy on autonomy in weapons systems; Bryan Clark, a defense analyst at the Hudson Institute and retired Navy officer specializing in naval warfare and military technology; and Henry Farrell, a political scientist and writer focused on the intersection of technology, geopolitics, and economic coercion. [00:00] America's First Precise Mass Campaign Against Iran The U.S. debuts the Lucas drone — a sub-$100K system reverse-engineered from Iran's own Shahed 136 — alongside legacy Tomahawk strikes in a campaign of unprecedented scale and velocity. [10:00] Regime Change Without a Plan The panel debates the theory of victory when you decapitate leadership but have nobody to pick up the pieces, with implications for nuclear proliferation, Gulf stability, and the Strait of Hormuz. [18:00] Weapons Stockpiles, Air Defense, and What China Is Learning Burning through expensive interceptors against cheap drones risks drawing down Pacific stockpiles, while China gets a front-row seat to how American air defenses operate at scale. [25:00] Claude Enters the Chat: AI in Military Operations Claude's integration into CENTCOM's Maven Smart System prompts a discussion on what military AI actually does — mostly boring bureaucratic tasks — and why the Terminator narrative misses the point. [46:00] The Anthropic–Pentagon Fight Mike argues the dispute is about personality and politics, not policy — Anthropic never refused a government request, and the real clash is over who gets to decide future use cases. [56:00] Treating a U.S. Company Like Huawei Threatening Anthropic with supply chain risk designations — tools built for foreign adversaries — could chill the entire tech sector's willingness to work with the Pentagon and poison allied trust in American tech. If we're doing emergency pods once a week now should I stop calling them emergency pods? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

what a mess! Wario Amodei's slow jam vibe: https://suno.com/s/cf3KDdVQ5F0KCjow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Lawrence Freedman is the dean of strategic studies. He’s written books about the Falklands War, nuclear strategy, political-military relations, Kennedy’s foreign policy, the revolution of military affairs, and (my personal favorite) the history of strategy.   Freedman is now part of the father-son writing duo samf.substack.com. Note: we recorded this in the summer of 2023. Thanks to the Hudson Institute for sponsoring this conversation. In this far-reaching conversation, we discuss: How the Falklands saved Thatcher’s premiership, making her the Iron Lady, Why the great strategic decisions of history rarely have clear, pivotal moments, Parallels between Putin, Xi, and the Argentine junta — what the Falklands campaign tells us about Ukraine, Taiwan, and the future of war, How nuclear war went from being a “winnable” geopolitical contest to the apocalyptic dog that didn’t bark, What Cold War arms control treaties can and can’t tell us about AI, The best strategists not covered by last week's interview with Hal Brands, Lawrence Freedman's recipe for wide reading and prolific writing. Outro music: Oh! It's a Lovely War (1918) · Courtland & Jeffries (Youtube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Peter Harrell drops in, attorney who served in the Obama and Biden admins and submitted a brief in this case Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bryan Clark opens the show talking Iran. Recurring cohosts include Justin Mc, Tony Stark and Eric Robinson. Eric Slesinger of 201 Ventures drops in https://ericslesinger.com/ outtro music: rubio's speech https://suno.com/s/KnIpTyZIU7iJSeIf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices