Claim OwnershipStreet Signals
Subscribed: 37Played: 1,398
Subscribe
2025 © 2025 State Street Corporation – All Rights Reserved
Description
Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data and deep expertise, the Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world’s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street’s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide.
114 Episodes
Reverse
Investors tend to underestimate the probability of tail risk events and assume market correlations will be stable. These are well-understood yet persistent blind spots that damage long-term portfolio performance. This week, we talk to David Dredge, CIO of Convex Strategies, as he shares his experiences and perspectives on the importance of overcoming these biases and incorporating convexity exposure, towards building greater resilience, maximizing compounding effects in return streams and optimizing for actual, rather than historic, returns.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Growth stocks are driving returns and economic dynamism, but also sparking discussions of whether we sit in bubble territory. Our guest this week, Matt Smith, portfolio manager at QSM Asset Management, a long/short hedge fund with a value focus, provides a timely reminder of how a consistent, fundamental-oriented approach can still offer compelling risk-adjusted returns. We also walk through current equity markets and how modest pullbacks in the AI trade could pose economic problems.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
A shutdown of the US government raises myriad questions, particularly what economic impacts might be felt in the near-term and the bigger picture puzzle of how to assess the state of the economy when public data from government statistical agencies is delayed or unavailable. This week, we take a deep dive on those questions, with a focus on the September US CPI release as a test case for how to think about and use alternative data sets. We are joined by PriceStats co-founder Alberto Cavallo, global head of macro strategy Michael Metcalfe and senior strategist Noel Dixon for a wide-ranging discussion of the shutdown and how alternative data can complement public data.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Drawing on decades of experience as a policymaker, investor and trader, Mark Dow joins us this week, as we thread the currents driving the global macroeconomy together into a cohesive whole. From tariffs, inflation, US labor supply issues and Fed independence, to gold, the dollar, debt and deficits, with a side trip to Argentina in between, few stones are left unturned in this macro masterclass.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Data drives decisions big and small, but a steady and worrying trend of deteriorating quality in public economic data adds an under-appreciated complexity to the choices made by central bankers and finance ministry officials. Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Investment Management, joins us to discuss how and why this problem has become so acute in recent years, how private data sources can both help and hinder policymakers, and what improvements are necessary. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Our title is the most-often asked question of recent weeks, with equity markets making new all-time highs and inflows continuing, despite an overwhelmingly consensus belief that they are also overvalued. However, this seeming paradox can persist, as Dan Gerard, senior multi-asset strategist for State Street Markets, highlights. We delve into the earnings power of the companies driving equity market returns, whether this will ever be a stockpickers market and what role the Federal Reserve is poised to play in the investing decisions driving headlines as Q3 draws to a close.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The British pound and gilts already face heavy scrutiny from markets, ahead of what could be a politically defining budget process for the UK Labour Party later this Autumn. As our guest this week details, a politically possible outcome that also keeps bond markets happy looks very difficult to achieve, potentially setting up for a period of volatility for UK assets and sterling. Helen Thomas, CEO of BlondeMoney, is back on the podcast to walk through the constraints on the government imposed both by markets and internal party politics, and where she sees points of vulnerability in each.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Summer is giving way to autumn and risk markets see few signs of a fall. Its not for lack of potential threats. Questions of Fed independence swirl and the US economy offers in equal parts the potential to either slow sharply or re-accelerate and threaten hopes for easier policy. The path of inflation is still an open question. Emerging threats to fiscal and political stability in Europe and the UK are once again on the markets mind. But none of these risks seem to demand higher risk premia, at least not yet. This week, Dan Mazza, State Street Markets head of FX forwards trading in the US, rejoins the podcast to discuss how and whether the calm can continue.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The investing world awaits the message from the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium this weekend. As an event, historically it can often disappoint those looking for answers. Expectations for clear guidance on near-term Fed policy seem low this year. Chairman Jay Powell regularly reminds markets (and politicians) that the two elements of the central banks mandate are now in conflict. Trade tariffs are likely to boost inflation for a while longer and have delayed a more aggressive easing cycle. Yet the US labor market looks more vulnerable than at any time since the pandemic. So a thoughtful idea of what to expect is in demand and our guiding voice on the Fed, Marvin Loh, a senior macro strategist on our US team, rejoins the podcast with what to expect from policymakers this week, and beyond.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Currency markets can be a lot like equity markets in that over or under-valuations can stay stretched for longer than one might think possible, before mean reversion inevitably kicks in. Maintaining an effective FX process for the long-term requires special attention to these questions of fair value, while also keeping an eye on the day-to-day headlines and short-term price dislocations that offer opportunities for alpha. Aaron Hurd, a senior portfolio manager at State Street Investment Management, joins the podcast this week for a wide-ranging discussion on FX, from how to think around these long-term drivers of portfolio construction, to current views on the major currencies, particularly where the US Dollar goes next.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Just when inflation was within striking distance of the Federal Reserves monetary policy target of 2%, allowing them to begin cutting rates last year, tariffs as a forceful policy choice of the US administration. Higher import duties have disrupted plans to ease rates and extend the soft landing of the US economy further. Tariffs also now appear to have introduced high uncertainty in the US labor market and the staffing plans of corporations, creating a potential demand-side dampening of any inflation that tariffs and still-constrained labor supply might create. Which way do we head from here? Michael Metcalfe, Global Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Markets, joins the podcast once more with his read of what faster-moving, alternative measures of data are suggesting.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Street Signals has had its mini-hiatus and is now back for most of the rest of the summer. This week, host Tim Graf walks through the big questions hanging over markets, some of which will need to be considered in the coming weeks, before the flip flops are put back in the closet and trading desks are back to fully staffed. We ponder what's next for equity markets, whether we'll actually start to soon see strong tariff-fueled inflation and whether the US dollar is at another inflection point after a healthy first half correction.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The period following the Second World War is often referred to as the American Century, when the rise of the United States to global hegemon accelerated and solidified. Those who take an interest in the global political economy are starting to wonder if that era is coming to a close. But the volatility of US policy in recent years, as much as it has given rise to questions over whether this period of American exceptionalism is at an end, also carries with it many elements which could herald its continuation. Marvin Barth, founder and author of Thematic Markets, an independent research effort focused on long-term trends and themes, joins the podcast to pore over the most critical questions facing the United States and what the answers mean for its place in the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The calm after the storm of April's volatility has been maintained, despite a massive fiscal expansion passing through Congress and being signed by the President, and the end of the deferral period for most of the tariffs initially announced at the start of Q2. As we await the economic impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill and the onset of significantly higher tariffs on most of the US' trading partners, Noel Dixon, a senior macro strategist on the team at State Street Markets, returns to the podcast to provide an independent outlook on the boosts and drags from policy and how damaging any economic costs might be in future electoral cycles.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this 100th episode of Street Signals, a theme ever-present throughout its two-year history comes to the fore once again: the ability of financial markets to come to grips with and move past seemingly implacable uncertainty. Q2 2025 alone provided what felt like a decade's worth of seismic and (theoretically) negative shocks to sentiment, yet equity markets have recovered quickly and are poised to push to new all-time highs, while many traditional safe haven currencies are on the back foot. This week, Peter Vincent, head of FX trading in EMEA for State Street Markets and a podcast regular, returns to offer his thinking on why markets remain so resilient in the face of such risks, whether the US growth outlook is poised to deteriorate and his outlook for currencies in the coming months.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Markets are still grappling with global trade and fiscal policies in flux and we were reminded this week that geopolitical risk is never out of the frame for too long. The broadening of hostilities in Israel and Iran necessarily extends the vigilance of policymakers for first and second order impacts on their economies, carrying with it potential implications for currency and interest rate markets, in particular. This week, we look at how all-important reserve managers and governments in Asia are considering all of these threats to stability and how currency and monetary policies are likely to adapt. We bring Dwyfor Evans, our head of macro strategy for Asia, back to the podcast for a broad discussion of the most relevant considerations.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Coming to you from our London Research Retreat, this week's episode of Street Signals explores the ongoing fragmentation in the global political economy and its implications for asset managers and asset owners. In a panel discussion with host Tim Graf, guests Elliot Hentov, head of macro policy research at State Street Global Advisors, and Ramu Thiagarajan, head of Thought Leadership at State Street, discuss how traditional correlation structures are breaking down, drawing parallels to the macro environment of the 1980s and 1990s. Key topics include the reassessment of equity risk premia, whether allocations to fixed income require a re-think and how relevant questions of increased heading of dollar-denominated assets remain after a tumultuous start to the year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Quantified measures of US trade and economic policy uncertainty are no longer at all-time highs, yet the global growth outlook for the rest of 2025 can still only be judged through a glass darkly. Indigestion of expanded supply in global fixed income markets similarly clouds the appeal of risky assets. Which makes the resilience of equity markets, and particularly the reversal in US stocks back towards all-time highs, all the more impressive. Marija Veitmane, our global head of equity strategy, joins the podcast to discuss whether a resumption of the strength of recent years is coming, whether equities now merit inclusion in the pantheon of safer assets and to what degree institutional investor preferences are behind one of the more remarkable buys of the dip in recent decades.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The near-constant fluctuation of tariff rates and their implementation dates has rendered economic forecasting an exercise in futility, at both the macro and micro level. But when supply chain disruptions loom, it’s best to hear from Craig Fuller, CEO and founder of FreightWaves, a provider of near real-time data and analysis on all phases of delivery in the global goods economy. From container shipping and port data to domestic trucking rates, the insights provided by Craig and his team are invaluable in understanding how the disruptions of today transmit into economic data in the coming quarters. In this very special episode of the podcast, we talk through the current tariff turmoil and how he sees supply chains evolving to meet the challenges of a trade war.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Robin Tsui, APAC Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, joins the podcast to break down what’s driving the surge in demand for gold over the past three years. From inflation fears to geopolitical risk, gold has reclaimed its shine as both a safe haven and strategic asset. Robin explains how central bank buying, ETF flows, and shifting investor sentiment are shaping the gold market—and what it could mean for the rest of 2025. Whether you’re a bullion believer or a curious skeptic, this is your inside look at the forces behind the precious metal's golden moment.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Comments
Download from Google Play
Download from App Store
United States