The Numbers

Polls suggest that a majority of Canadians (including British Columbians), support building a new pipeline from Alberta to the north coast of B.C. But after the resignation of Steven Guilbeault, a key minister for the Liberals in Quebec, and indications that the party’s electoral base in B.C. and elsewhere has mixed views about a new pipeline, could Mark Carney’s voter coalition be cracking — or could it grow instead?This week on The Numbers, we dissect some new numbers on how Canadians view the possibility of a new pipeline and what they could mean for the fortunes of the Liberals. We also have some new polls concerning the federal scene and Quebec provincial politics to chat about.This Friday, don’t miss our 2026 Leader Resignation Draft episode. Join the Patreon to listen to it if you aren’t already a member!Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is reportedly set to announce a new agreement with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith that could pave the way for a new pipeline to the Pacific coast. The only problem? British Columbia might not be on board. Beyond the implications for the economy and the environment, could choosing between Alberta and B.C. have electoral repercussions for the Liberals?This week on The Numbers, we break down views on a new pipeline and what impact it could have on Liberal fortunes in the two westernmost provinces. We also discuss the state of the NDP leadership race and what two new polls tell us about it, before chatting about the latest upheaval in Quebec provincial politics. Then, Philippe is back with The Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It wasn’t entirely clear how the budget was going to get passed, but it did indeed get passed on Monday night thanks to the abstentions of a few Conservative and NDP MPs. So, that means Canadians won’t be called to the polls over the holidays. But the clock on this minority parliament continues to count down. How long can it really last?This week on The Numbers, we discuss what happened with the budget vote on Monday and what it tells us about the timing of the next federal election. We also chat about some new polling numbers, including both at the federal level and provincially out of New Brunswick and Quebec, as well as about an upcoming byelection in Prince Edward Island.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.This episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Questions continue to surround the future of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre following the turmoil of budget week. Not only did the Conservatives lose Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont to the Liberals, they also lost Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux, who announced his upcoming resignation. It’s been widely reported that Jeneroux was contemplating a floor-crossing of his own, but instead he has opted to resign his seat in the coming months.While it’s possible the caucus departures could halt with d’Entremont and Jeneroux, rumours are swirling that upwards of a dozen Conservative MPs are unhappy with Poilievre’s leadership and how events have unfolded over the last few weeks. Can Poilievre weather this storm?This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest developments and what the poll numbers say about the state of the Conservative Party and its leader. We also take a look at how Canadians are reacting to last week’s budget. Was it ho-hum, or a turning point? Plus, Québec Solidaire chooses a new co-leader that will have it doubling-down on independence and we have some new polling numbers out of Ontario.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Carney’s Liberal government tabled what it called its ‘generational’ budget on Tuesday, promising a mix of spending and cuts and booking a big budget deficit. So far, the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois look set to vote it down. The New Democrats are on the fence.But the drama of budget day was punctuated by the defection of Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont from the Conservatives to the Liberals. He might not be the only one to cross the floor as rumours fly. What does it mean for the fate of the government, Pierre Poilievre’s leadership and the potential for a snap election?We had good reason to delay this week’s episode of The Numbers until after the budget so we could break down all the latest drama — because there’s quite a bit of it! We also discuss the state of the NDP leadership race and some new provincial polling out of Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta, as well as the results of the mayoral elections in Quebec and the territorial vote in Yukon.CORRECTION: In Philippe’s Number of the Week, he said 85% when he meant 75%.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

There’s one week to go before Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government tables the budget. We still don’t know if it will pass a vote in the House of Commons. Failing to do so would mean another election. Should Pierre Poilievre welcome a second campaign in 2025, or should he and his Conservatives prefer to put that contest off to another day? And what about the Bloc Québécois and the New Democrats?This week on The Numbers, we rate how much each party should want to head back to the polls this fall. We also take a look at a new poll that suggests the B.C. Conservatives are doing far better among voters than is their leader, John Rustad, plus we chat about the end of the fixed election date law in Ontario. Finally, Philippe has a Quiz to mark the 30th anniversary of the 1995 Quebec referendum.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.This episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nobody within Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative caucus has publicly broken ranks with the leader, but calls for a change at the top of the party were given voice last week by Dimitri Soudas, a top aide to former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper. Is it a sign that Poilievre’s leadership of the party is more fragile than was previously thought, or are Soudas’s criticisms those of a former Conservative who no longer represents today’s version of the party? And what do the numbers say about the strength of Poilievre’s leadership?This week on The Numbers, we discuss where things stand for Poilievre and the Conservatives. We also take a look at some more polling numbers on the Canada-U.S. relationship (and the Carney-Trump relationship). Plus, we have provincial polls out of Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, as well as some mayoral results in Calgary and Edmonton. How did the polls do in these two big cities?Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.This episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The polls continue to show a narrow, but diminishing, advantage for Mark Carney’s Liberals. But the polls also show that Canadians hold some complicated, and at terms contradictory, views when it comes to the United States and the prime minister’s relationship with Donald Trump. It’s a delicate balancing act for Carney — one that could easily go badly for the Liberals if they risked (or were forced into) an election in the fall.The week on The Numbers, we talk about the federal polling landscape and what it shows about Canadians’ views on our relations with the United States. We also take one last look at the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election, as well as what the polls are showing ahead of next week’s mayoral elections in Calgary and Edmonton. Then, we close with a Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscriptionThis episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

For most of the four years between 2019 and 2023, the Liberals and Conservatives were deadlocked in the polls with each party hovering a little over 30%, give or take a few points. Then the bottom fell out for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. But are we entering into another phase of a deadlocked, polarized electorate — this time with Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives both stuck around 40%?This week on The Numbers, we discuss what could be the new normal. Plus, the NDP gets an interesting new entrant into its leadership race and the government announces a change to the budgeting schedule that could have some repercussions for the electoral calendar. In New Brunswick, the PCs hold one of their seats in a provincial byelection, while in Newfoundland and Labrador we’re only one week out election day. Where do things stand there? We also discuss some new polling numbers from Quebec and British Columbia, where David Eby seems to be benefiting from a divided (and infighting) opposition.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Carney seems to be more popular than his Liberals, while Pierre Poilievre seems to be less popular than his Conservatives. Are these numbers sustainable for either party leader — and what would it mean if these numbers held going into an election campaign? Plus, what to make of the NDP’s better polls as the party’s leadership campaign takes off?This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest in federal polling trends. We also chat about the ongoing (but still unpolled) campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador, some surprising polling numbers out of Alberta and some less surprising numbers out of municipal races in Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal and Quebec City (a well as in Ontario). Then, Philippe is back with a new edition of The Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It’s been a tough time for party leaders. After Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie resigned following her 57% leadership review score, Marit Stiles of the Ontario NDP managed only a little better with 68%. Over in British Columbia, John Rustad of the Conservatives scored 70%. While Crombie couldn’t hold on, Stiles and Rustad plan to stick around. But what number is good enough to stay on as leader — and what number should Pierre Poilievre aim for in his upcoming leadership review to keep his job safe?This week on The Numbers, we chat about these leadership review results and what they mean. We also discuss new federal polling numbers and the opening moves of the NDP leadership race for contenders Avi Lewis and Heather McPherson. Plus, we break down some new provincial survey results out of Quebec, Manitoba and Nova Scotia. Then, Philippe boosts the difficulty level in this week’s edition of The Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.This episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The MPs are back in Ottawa and already the big question on Parliament Hill is whether or not the government will survive the budget vote later this fall. Just a few seats short of a majority, Mark Carney’s Liberals still require the support (or abstention) of at least one other party in the House of Commons. Do any of those parties have an incentive to go back to the polls sooner rather than later?This week on The Numbers, we break down the current state of the polls and what they say about the stability of this Parliament. We also discuss the newly-launched Newfoundland and Labrador election campaign, Bonnie Crombie’s resignation as leader of the Ontario Liberals and some provincial polling numbers from coast to coast.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Parliamentarians return to Ottawa next week for what will be the first showdown between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in the House of Commons. It’ll be the official kick-off for the fall political season. Who will come out on top?This week on The Numbers, after delving into the latest poll numbers we play a little game of “buy or sell” — buying the parties and leaders we think will end the season higher in the polls than where they are today, and selling those we think could end up in a worse spot.Plus, we also chat about an upcoming provincial byelection in New Brunswick and break down the latest goings-on in Quebec, where Premier François Legault’s government is up against the ropes as a new poll shows the CAQ at rock bottom.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.This episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The first two serious contenders for the federal NDP leadership have emerged in Heather McPherson and Avi Lewis, according to recent reporting. But the challenge they have ahead of them to rehabilitate the ailing New Democratic Party is enormous. Could the path laid out by Manitoba’s Wab Kinew be the answer?This week on The Numbers, we discuss where the NDP goes from here as its leadership race officially begins. We also chat about whether we’re seeing any corroboration of last week’s polling numbers that showed some Liberal slippage, plus the potential for a couple of federal byelections in the next few months. Then, we break down the results of the Spruce Woods byelection in Manitoba, where the incumbent PCs were nearly upset in a safe riding. Plus, new poll numbers in Ontario disagree on where Doug Ford stands — is he in a dominant position, or just a really good one? Finally, Philippe ups the ante with another Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is Mark Carney’s honeymoon in danger of coming to an end? A new poll from Abacus Data suggests the Liberals might have lost some steam for the first time since the April election. What to make of these new numbers that put the Conservatives marginally ahead?This week on The Numbers, we take a look at this new poll — and a few others that muddy the waters, including some not-so-strong numbers for Pierre Poilievre nationwide. We also discuss the upcoming (second) resignation of Green leader Elizabeth May and a new poll that puts the Parti Québécois in the driver’s seat ahead of the 2026 Quebec election. We close with a prime ministerial Quiz from Philippe.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Pierre Poilievre easily won the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection on Monday, thereby securing his return to the House of Commons. His closest challenger, Independent candidate Bonnie Critchley, finished 70 points behind as voters in the riding came out in droves to support the Conservative leader.This week on The Numbers, we dive deep into the results of the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection. We also discuss some recent poll numbers that continue to look good for Mark Carney and the Liberals but suggest some vulnerabilities on key issues (such as the now-ended Air Canada strike and Donald Trump’s tariffs). Plus, we take a look at what happened in two PEI byelections last week and then Philippe closes with a byelection-themed Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.A video of this episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With less than a week to go before the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection, how do we assess Pierre Poilievre’s chances to not only win but to put up a score that is just as big as what his Conservative predecessors did in the riding? Plus, what to make of the news that Jenni Byrne, who ran the Conservative campaign in this year’s election, will not be running the party’s next campaign?This week on The Numbers, we take our last look at the Battle for Battle River–Crowfoot. We also discuss the results of the Quebec provincial byelection in Arthabaska, where the Parti Québécois secured a surprisingly comfortable victory over Éric Duhaime and the Quebec Conservatives. What does it mean for politics in the province ahead of next year’s election?Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.This episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

For the second time in as many elections, Pierre Poilievre will have to contend with an enormous number of opponents. After the Longest Ballot Committee organized to expand the list of names to 91 candidates in Carleton, they’ve now boosted their efforts to push the roster of candidates to over 200 ahead of the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection.Will it be the final straw before changes are made to the election laws? And what impact could it have on the race?This week on The Numbers, we delve into the absurd byelection in Alberta. We also discuss some of the latest federal polling, as well as a trio of provincial byelections added to the calendar in Prince Edward Island and Manitoba and a face-off between Bonnie Crombie and Nate Erskine-Smith that is brewing within the Ontario Liberal Party. Then, Philippe takes us back to a time when “the land was strong” in this week’s edition of The Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As Donald Trump rachets up the pressure on Mark Carney, a majority of Canadians are still approving of the job the prime minister is doing. And one of the things that might be helping him the most is Canadians’ own lack of trust that the U.S. president is acting in good faith.This week on The Numbers, we discuss some of the latest polling on how Canadians are viewing Carney’s government and their negotiations with the United States over tariffs. We also discuss the rules that have been laid out by the New Democrats for their leadership race. Is the entry fee too high? Is the race too long?Plus, Philippe is tested with an impromptu Quiz as we look back on where things stood in summers past.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After the New Democrats suffered a stinging rebuke in the last federal election, there are many questions surrounding where the party goes from here — and who could lead it.On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we discuss the troubled state of the NDP and a new poll that suggests few Canadians know much about any of the potential leadership contenders. We also chat about what the polls say about Pierre Poilievre’s current standing within the Conservative Party, as well as an upcoming provincial byelection in Quebec. Plus, Philippe has a quiz on past NDP leadership contests.If you missed it last week, we played a round of Over/Unders on the federal byelection in Battle River–Crowfoot. You can listen to this members-only episode by joining our Patreon here.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.