Macro Pulse

Financial markets have seen renewed gyrations in recent weeks, with a weaker US dollar, higher interest rate volatility and shifting capital flows reviving discussion of a “Sell America” narrative — so far more a marginal rebalancing than a wholesale retreat. In our charts this week we focus on:   Global growth conditions The US dollar Consumer confidence in the US and Europe Financial markets and data surprises The US economy and AI Taiwan’s economy and AI

The global backdrop remains unsettled, reflected in rising gold prices amid geopolitical tensions. At the same time, however, many major equity indices remain at or close to all-time highs, buoyed by optimism around AI and reinforced by a run of relatively benign US inflation readings. In our charts this week we focus on: The Blue Chip growth consensus Central bank policy rate expectations UK data surprises and the BoE The impact of Artificial Intelligence US business formation and productvity growth China's export growth

Over the past few weeks, global financial markets have taken comfort from cooling inflation, resilient earnings and continued upside surprises in the dataflow. More recently, however, geopolitical developments have injected a note of caution, even as the macro backdrop remains broadly supportive. In our charts this week we focus on: Global growth conditions Supply chain pressures and inflation Interest rate expectations Venezuela and oil China's excess capacity Public sector intebtedness

In this week’s charts, we highlight a cluster of upside risks that may be underappreciated in current economic forecasts. These include: A faster-than-expected pace of policy easing in advanced economies  A further sharp decline in oil prices A positive AI-driven surprise from US productivity  Unexpected resilience from the US economy India's growth momentum firms again The Global South exhibits much greater domestic autonomy   This marks our final Charts of the Week publication for 2026. The next edition will be released on Thursday 8 January.

As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy heads into 2026 with a surprisingly resilient backdrop: equities remain near cycle highs, volatility is low, and growth forecasts have been edging up. Against this constructive backdrop, our charts this week focus on some of the key downside risks that concern: The global growth consensus Central bank policy calibration Financial market stability AI expectation versus reality  Global trade disruption Geopolitical risks 

Global financial markets have been navigating a more unsettled backdrop in recent weeks, with choppier risk sentiment and shifting rate expectations reshaping the macro narrative. US assets have been particularly sensitive to signs of cooling labour-market momentum, while rising real yields in Japan and renewed fiscal tightening in the UK have added further cross-currents. In our charts this week we home in on:   The global policy rate consensus The US labour market Euro area inflation  Real rates in Japan UK government debt  South Korea's semiconductor trade

In this podcast, Arun Singh, Dun & Bradstreet's Global Chief Economist, joins Andy Cates from Haver Analytics, to explore D&B’s Global Business Insights Survey — a powerful decision-making lens for leaders who want to act early, think clearly, and navigate uncertainty with confidence.

As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy feels caught between relief and unease. Inflation has eased but not fully retreated, monetary-policy cycles are pulling in different directions, markets are oscillating between AI-driven enthusiasm and valuation nerves, and geopolitical tensions are pressing harder on trade, energy and investment flows.    Against this backdrop, we discuss twelve themes that set out the forces most likely to shape the macro, market and policy landscape in 2026. They range from the pivotal questions around whether AI will deliver visible productivity gains, how far the AI narrative can continue to support markets, and how policymakers will manage an unusually uncertain interest-rate outlook, to the broader pressures created by fiscal strains, climate stress, shifting trade patterns, geopolitical fragmentation, political transitions, and demographic change.

The global economic story of 2025 has been one of resilience amid disruption. Despite a succession of shocks — from US trade policies and elevated geopolitical risks— the world economy has held up better than many feared. In our charts this week we review: Global data surprises and market volatility Monetary policy calibration and inflation The stance of fiscal policy AI investment and productivity growth US/China trade flows Uncertainty and geopolitical risk

Global equity markets are once again flirting with record highs, buoyed by renewed optimism that the global economy can achieve a soft landing—and by persistent enthusiasm over the potential productivity gains from AI-related investment. In our charts this week we focus on: The Fed and interest rate expectations The global business cycle Consumer confidence in the US and Europe Euro area credit conditions UK manufacturing Shipping costs and traded goods prices

Financial markets have been pulled between opposing forces in recent days. Risk sentiment has been hit by concerns over US lenders, credit conditions, tariffs, the government shutdown, and a potential AI-driven valuation bubble (chart 1). Offsetting this, easing growth and inflation have strengthened expectations of further central bank rate cuts, lifting soft-landing hopes. In our charts this week we drill into:   US equity market valuations Non-US equity markets and data surprises Oil prices and monetary policy China's credit growth US wage pressures UK inflation

Global financial markets are entering mid-October with a cautiously optimistic tone, supported by a mix of better macro data and easing geopolitical risk. In our charts this week we drill into:   The global growth consensus US investment in data centres Views on AI and productivity Geopolitical risks and oil prices China's trade patterns The UK labour market 

Financial markets have been navigating a US government shutdown that has frozen key data releases and muddied the macro picture. In the meantime, political cross-currents in Europe and Asia have added to the noise. In our charts this week we drill into: The US labour market Global productivity trends Electricity prices Natural capital versus produced capital Japan's politics Vietnam's economy 

Global financial markets have remained resilient in recent days, supported by a combination of easing inflation concerns, steady growth data, and hopes that geopolitical risks may ease. At the same time, investors are watching the fallout from the US government shutdown, which is likely to suspend or delay the release of key economic indicators, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. In our charts this week we focus on: Policy rate expectations Growth and inflation surprises US business formation US productivity trends and AI Semiconductor trade Defence spending 

Global financial markets have remained steady over the past few days: equity volatility remains low, credit spreads remain contained and core yields have drifted rather than lurched, even as policy noise—especially around US trade—remains high. In our charts this week we focus on: Global growth momentum European bond markets South Korean trade Global labour market activity UK financial balances Equity markets and uncertainty   

Global equity markets have remained near record highs over the past few days following the Fed’s 25bp cut on Wednesday, and which investors have arguably seen as a key prop even without a full dovish pivot. Clearly AI optimism is also doing some heavy lifting. In our charts this week we drill into: Equity markets and consumer confidence Inflation expectations and oil prices Forecasts for US profitability The Fed and Asia's policy rates Global food prices UK inflation 

Financial markets have spent the week recalibrating after last Friday’s much weaker-than-expected US payrolls data: government bond yields have declined sharply, while equity markets have remained perky off hopes of a gentler policy path and still-resilient earnings. Even so, the medium-term growth lens has arguably continue to dim. In our charts this week we focus on: The Blue Chip growth consensus US payroll revisions Healthcare employment China's trade with the US and Asia Private sector indebtedness Global supply chain pressures

Equity markets have lost a little ground in recent days and bond markets have been more jittery, as legal challenges to US tariff policies add to a tense backdrop of geopolitical meetings between China, Russia, and India. In our charts this week we focus on: Gold prices and trade policy uncertainty US Tariffs India's economy and markets Global monetary policy Euro area inflation The US profit cycle

Haver Analytics sits down with Pedro Antunes, Chief Economist at The Conference Board of Canada, and Cory Renner, who leads the Board’s forecasting team. Together, they discuss how Canada’s economic outlook is shaped by detailed provincial and metropolitan data, why quarterly accounts matter, and how large-scale models and real-time insights help forecast growth, investment, and labor market trends. Listeners will get an inside look at how The Conference Board builds trusted forecasts and what this means for understanding Canada’s evolving economy.

Recent financial market gains have been underpinned by resilient global data, AI-fuelled optimism, and hopes that most central banks will continue to loosen monetary policy. Yet beneath the surface, a more complicated picture may be emerging. In our chart this week we home in on: US housing indicators China's economy UK inflation Oil and inflation expectations Clean energy Renewables versus non-renewables