The Lumber Word

The lumber market just flipped. What looked slow turned into real buying, tightening supply, and rising prices—fast. This week, the crew breaks down why low-grade and studs are leading, freight is becoming a major constraint, and order files are pushing into April. Buyers who waited are now chasing, while supply cuts and steady demand raise a bigger question: are we already short of wood? If so, this move may just be getting started. Timeline 0:00 – Market flips from slow to active 2:30 – Low-grade & studs lead strength 7:00 – Prices up ~$100+ since Nov 10:00 – Order files into April 12:00 – Freight tightening supply 15:00 – Buyers now chasing 28:00 – Supply vs demand imbalance 35:00 – Early innings of the move Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Freight is exploding, mills are pulling back, and lumber prices are quietly starting to run. The lumber market flipped fast this week. Freight costs surged, Canadian mills stepped back from truck shipments, and prices began climbing across species. Ashley, Matt, Gregg, Charles, and Sig break down tightening supply, Southern Yellow Pine strength, and whether this is the start of a spring lumber run or just another head fake in the cycle. Spotify Timeline (Chapters) 00:00 – Intro & market setup 03:00 – Freight costs jump 07:00 – Pine vs spruce pricing 12:00 – Supply vs willingness to pay 18:00 – Demand drivers (R&R and housing) 26:00 – Second‑half market outlook 31:00 – Buyer strategy in this market 38:00 – Futures & trade ideas 41:00 – OSB and other materials Guest Sig Thoma Sig@XMICO.com   Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

The lumber market is deep in the **fog of war**. Freight is tightening, trucking rates are jumping, and species spreads are shifting fast. In Episode #159, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down why flatbed capacity is suddenly scarce, how Southern Yellow Pine is catching a bid while eastern spruce softens, and what heavy Doug Fir production in the West could mean for the market. The crew also tackles the big question: **where is the missing demand?** Canadian shipments are down, production is lower across North America, yet prices haven’t fully reacted. Are buyers simply running leaner inventories and buying lumber just‑in‑time? If you buy, sell, trade, or build with lumber, this episode helps you navigate freight disruptions, changing buying habits, and the real supply‑and‑demand signals shaping the 2026 lumber market. Chapters 0:00 – The Fog of War in the lumber market 1:00 – Trucking shortages and rising freight costs 6:30 – Why freight tightens every spring 12:30 – Futures vs. cash lumber pricing 16:00 – Doug Fir, spruce, and pine market dynamics 20:00 – Southern Yellow Pine strength 24:00 – Just‑in‑time lumber buying 27:00 – Lumber price outlook 30:00 – Mortgage rates and housing demand 33:00 – Western supply shifts 36:30 – Final market takeaways     Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Kip Fotheringham joins the crew to break down a lumber market that feels coiled. Canadian shipments are down 30% year-over-year. Inventory on the ground is near multi-year lows. Futures are trading at a discount to cash. And dealers are running lean. So are we stuck in a trading range… or one buying shift away from a $100 move? In this episode, the guys debate: Why majors aren’t aggressively EFP’ing Government “support” vs. subsidy risk in Canada Southern Pine regional price spreads What happens if retailers add just 2–3 weeks of inventory Why breakeven doesn’t matter — return on capital does Tariff noise vs. actual lumber exemption rules Is the low already in? Or are we just chopping sideways?   Strap in. Timestamps 00:00 – Welcome + Kip joins 02:00 – Cash vs. futures disconnect 04:00 – 30% drop in Canadian shipments 10:00 – Southern Pine update 18:30 – Lean inventories & catalyst discussion 24:00 – Trading range debate 36:00 – Why mills keep running 42:00 – Tariff clarification   Guest:  Kip Foteringham Independent Trader and Market Analyst  kipf@telus.net   Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com    

This week, we welcome Thomas Mende back to break down what’s really happening in the lumber market. Eastern Spruce is showing selective discounts (especially 16’s), Southern Pine had midweek block buying, and Western low-grade is tight while higher grades sit. Are we finally near equilibrium? Thomas walks through European production declines, rising log costs, and why tariffs alone don’t drive shipments — economics do. Canadian shipments are down sharply year over year, and when you combine that with slightly softer housing starts, supply and demand may be closer than most think. We also dig into the flattening futures curve, what that means for hedgers, whether Southern Pine mills are actually making money, and why a flat market might cause the most pain. If you trade lumber, build with it, or hedge it — this one matters. Timestamps 00:00 – Market pulse: Spruce, Pine & truck spreads 06:30 – Southern Pine block buying & 16’ pricing 10:00 – Europe shipments, tariffs & rising log costs 17:30 – Western market: low-grade squeeze 21:30 – Housing starts & real wood usage math 27:00 – Canadian shipment declines 31:00 – Futures flattening: what it means 35:30 – Mill closures & Southern Pine profitability 40:00 – Softwood Lumber Board & CLT demand growth 45:00 – Tariff ruling update & market outlook     Advertiser: Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Product djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Guest: Thomas Mende Thomas.Mende@binderholz.com https://www.binderholz.com/   Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Is the lumber market quiet… or is it weak? That’s the debate this week on The Lumber Word Podcast. Charles breaks down how SYP is trading — some items are moving, but others are dug in tight. Matt walks through what he’s seeing in Texas as activity starts to open up, and why low-grade SPF is creeping closer to #2 in ways that matter. Gregg zooms out to the macro, unpacking monetary supply and asking the big question: what kind of price move would hurt the most people the most?  Ashley connects the dots on what he knows is happening in real-time supply and demand. Did we leave the studio sucking our thumbs… or bulled up and ready?  Crush the follow button and find out. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com  

Senior Economist Dustin Jalbert from Fastmarkets is back, and that means it’s time to stress-test the lumber market. We dig into real supply and demand, where we are in the cycle, and what buyers and sellers are actually saying. Were we too bullish the past few weeks? Will the cost of production finally pull capacity, or do higher prices today just set up lower prices tomorrow? Tune in and recalibrate your lumber compass.   Advertiser and Guest Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Two familiar faces are back as Bart Charles and Matt Layman join us to break down a lumber market that just won’t quit. Prices across all species are climbing the classic wall of worry—up nearly $100/MBF in the last two months and still catching a bid. With big multifamily jobbers caught short and orders leaking back in, is an $800/MBF print really in play? Take a breather, hit play, and hear what we think—most listeners walk away a lot smarter and entertained.   Advertisers: Fastmarkets Random Lengths djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Advertiser and Guest Layman’s Lumber Guide www.laymansguide.com Matt@laymansguide.com Guest Bart Charles Atlantic Forest Products charles@atlanticforest.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

The lumber market keeps showing strength across all species. Gregg and Matt discuss longer-term multifamily projects starting to appear, while Charles breaks down how Southern Pine strength has evolved. We’re seeing tight availability, trucks being chased after purchase, and the same quotes coming back days later — classic up-market signals that surprised many. How long does it last? Tune in to find out.   Fastmarkets Random Lengths djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Lumberhub.net George@Lumberhub.net   Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com  

This episode of The Lumber Word is dedicated to Scott Adams, who passed away this week. One of the main reasons this podcast exists is because of his influence—his ability to cut through noise, challenge assumptions, and explain complex systems in a way that actually made sense. That mindset is at the core of what we try to do every week: make this podcast useful and give back to the lumber industry. Thanks, Scott. Gregg, Matt, Ashley, and Charles circle up and jump right into North American species dynamics, with a quick (and well-earned) look back at calling the Q1 price move—and then a deeper discussion on the more important question: how far can it go from here? With demand still a head-scratcher and supply slowly coming off the board, the group breaks down what this tightening setup could mean over the next few months. You’ll hear exactly how we’re thinking about inventory positioning, hedging, and pricing strategy in this market. Charles goes the extra mile with a boots-on-the-ground read of SYP, sharing what the market feels like—not just what the numbers say. If lumber is an input cost, your main cost, or something you actively trade, this episode reinforces why The Lumber Word remains the go-to podcast for practical, real-world market insight. Thanks for listening. Advertisers: Fastmarkets Random Lengths djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Layman’s Lumber Guide www.laymansguide.com Matt@laymansguide.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Matt, Gregg, Ashley, and Charles kick off the New Year by breaking down the flow of lumber heading into 2026. From what different species are doing to why listeners of The Lumber Word tend to be a step ahead. The crew digs into market positioning, hedging misconceptions, and where real opportunity lies. If you want a few laughs and to be a smarter, better-prepared lumber trader in 2026, this episode is a must-listen.   Advertisers: Fastmarkets Random Lengths djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt Ashley@sitkainc.com

Alex Mead from StoneX joins Gregg, Matt, Ashley, and Charles for a milestone Episode 150 packed with market insight. The group breaks down current lumber conditions, why the new CME SYP lumber contract is positioned to grow in the coming years, and what the Commitment of Traders Report is signaling about the next move. They discuss the wide spread between CME and spot lumber, how buyers across the supply chain are reacting, and whether being short into Q1 could be risky. Stick around to the end for early 2026 forecasts and a strong close from Matt, highlighting gratitude for the industry and why this market still matters. Advertisers: Fastmarkets Random Lengths djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Layman’s Lumber Guide www.laymansguide.com Matt@laymansguide.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Guest: Alex Mead Risk Management Consultant StoneX Alex.mead@stonex.com

Industry veteran Sig Thoma joins Gregg, Matt, and Ashley to break down a lumber market searching for direction. The crew digs into mill fixed costs, why curtailments are so tough, and where early green shoots may appear heading into 2026. They debate contracts vs. VMI for next year, highlight what sellers are doing, and share the items they’re buying—plus the risk strategies they’re using right now. A fast, insightful episode to help you trade smarter. Guest: Sig Thoma / Industry veteran Sig@xmico.com Advertisers: Fastmarkets Random Lengths djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Layman’s Lumber Guide www.laymansguide.com Matt@laymansguide.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com  

In Episode #148 of The Lumber Word, Matt, Gregg, Charles and Ashley sit down with Kyle Little, COO of Sherwood Lumber and current NAWLA Chairman, to talk about staying grateful in one of the toughest markets we've seen in years. Kyle gives an inside look at what NAWLA is working on to improve meetings and member engagement, while the crew runs through a quick market round robin — how short is multi-family, where inventory is hiding, 2x4 #2 R/L Chicago trading around $485–$495, and whether the three-year streak of $30 CME rolls can keep going. Who are the Long CME traders? They hit SYP futures, new potential deliverables in the legacy lumber contract, whether big buyers are stepping in, and if demand is starting to feel a little 2008-ish. The episode wraps with thoughts on growing customers in a slow market and what the industry can learn from this moment. Guest: Kyle Little COO of Sherwood Lumber and Current NAWLA Chairman klittle@sherwoodlumber.com NAWLA Contact Information Matt Bruno MBruno@nawla.org https://nawla.org/ Advertisers: Fastmarkets Random Lengths djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Layman’s Lumber Guide www.laymansguide.com Matt@laymansguide.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

This week we welcome back one of our favorite guests — and sponsor — Matt Layman. The crew breaks down the strange mood gripping the industry: no curtailments, exhausted traders, Repair & Remodel softening, and customers disappearing into the weeds. We run through every major species, what’s cheap, what’s expensive, and how November expiration and January futures could shape the next move. Matt shares what his members are seeing across retail, multifamily, and manufacturing, while the team debates whether mills get bank lifelines or if cuts finally hit. We look at Home Depot’s outlook, immigration’s impact on the economy, and how much wood needs to come off for any kind of Q1 rally. If you’re trying to navigate this market or plan for H1 2026 business, this episode is loaded with takeaways. Come for the insight — leave smarter.   Advertisers: Fastmarkets Random Lengths djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Layman’s Lumber Guide www.laymansguide.com Matt@laymansguide.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com  

Gregg, Matt, and Ashley dive right in this week after a jam-packed NAWLA Traders event in Kansas City. The trio breaks down the mood coming out of the show — who was optimistic, who wasn’t, and what that means for the lumber market heading into year-end. They take a hard look at the November CME lumber expiration, asking whether open interest is too high or if most of it will roll into EFPs as the year winds down. The conversation heats up around curtailments, demand signals, and what kind of event or news could realistically turn the market around — or if things are really that bad. The guys wrap things up by sharing what they’re buying, selling, and watching, plus a few ideas for what others in the industry should be considering right now. Come for the post-NAWLA insights, stay for the trading talk — and as always, walk away smarter and better looking.   Fastmarkets/CME SYP Futures webinar, November 18, 2025, link: www.fastmarkets.com/lumbertalk   Advertisers: Fastmarkets Random Lengths djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Layman’s Lumber Guide www.laymansguide.com Matt@laymansguide.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

This week on The Lumber Word, the crew welcomes Patrick Teoli, IT specialist and owner of BluCirrus, to tackle all those tech questions that “just unplug it and plug it back in” won’t solve. From system crashes to smarter setups, Patrick keeps it real about how tech meets the lumber world. Then, things heat up fast in the lumber market discussion — and it’s a wild one. After a sharp CME selloff, fear is rippling through the supply chain. So where’s the opportunity hiding? Gregg, Matt, Charles, and Ashley break it down with their takes on Hem-Fir convergence, mills that might pull the plug, and why if you’re EFP’ing and sleeving through five people, you’re probably missing the real play. Come for the information, stay for the laughs — and leave a little smarter (and maybe better looking).   Advertisers: Fastmarkets Random Lengths djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Layman’s Lumber Guide www.laymansguide.com Matt@laymansguide.com   Guest: Patrick Teoli BLUCIRRUS pteoli@blucirrus.com   Show Contacts Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com  

Matt, Gregg, Charles, and Ashley are back on track this week talking about what might be the calm before the next lumber storm. The crew breaks down the quiet market tone and asks the question everyone’s thinking — are we moving from seasonal weakness into a period of strength? Charles thinks many dealers have been “good-dealed to death” over the past 60 days and simply don’t need to buy, while Gregg takes the other side of that trade. Matt shares why he’s feeling better heading into year-end, and the group circles around how the bug basis is quietly helping hedgers manage risk. They also highlight Hem-Fir’s return as a deliverable species, adding another twist to the 2025 outlook. Plenty to unpack, lots of laughs, and as always — you’ll come out smarter and better looking.     Advertisers: Fastmarkets Random Lengths djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Layman’s Lumber Guide www.laymansguide.com Matt@laymansguide.com   Show Contacts Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Gregg, Charles, and Ashley kick things off with a deep dive into Southern Pine curtailments — and why they still haven’t kicked in. The crew then runs through different scenarios for when Canadian mills might finally shut down more production. Gregg predicts we could see a 7-handle on lumber in Q1 of ’26, while Charles brings up multi-family projects and who’s short that business heading into 2026. Gregg also sparks a conversation about 2026 lumber contracts and some surprising insights that follow. The team rounds things out by highlighting undervalued items and how your inventory strategy might adapt to take advantage. Join the fun — and leave a little smarter.   Advertisers: Fastmarkets Random Lengths djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Layman’s Lumber Guide www.laymansguide.com Matt@laymansguide.com   Show Contacts Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com  

We jump right in by challenging each other on the ultimate lumber question — what would hurt the most people the most: prices going up or down? From there, it’s a full-on debate about seasonality, market psychology, and whether this “underbought” market is actually overproduced… or maybe it’s the other way around. As usual, we dropped plenty of gems on how each of us navigates the chaos to make money in today’s market. Then the spotlight turned to SYP — is it really the species of choice when it comes to switching and optionality? This one’s fast, fun, and a little confusing — in the best way possible. You’ll have to listen to make it all make sense.   Advertisers: Fastmarkets Random Lengths djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Layman’s Lumber Guide www.laymansguide.com Matt@laymansguide.com   Show Contacts Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com