The Flow: Real Estate and Money Show
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Welcome to The Flow: Real Estate & Money Show. The Flow is for people in Canada who are: looking to understand the homebuying process, to demystify real estate investing, and to make mortgage financing accessible for anyone. The goal here is to help people understand: ways to make their money work for them, get in the market sooner, and open up the box on how mortgage financing works.
We hope to help you find your State of Flow.
Hear something interesting? Let's Connect!
Website: getflowmortgage.ca
Alex's Social Media: @themortgagepug
Flow's Social Media: @flowmortgageco
We hope to help you find your State of Flow.
Hear something interesting? Let's Connect!
Website: getflowmortgage.ca
Alex's Social Media: @themortgagepug
Flow's Social Media: @flowmortgageco
136 Episodes
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READY FRAMEWORK to decide if you should buy now: https://flowprocess.lovable.app/readyAlex breaks down Canada’s 2026 “mystery bottom” and says it’s a regional market, not one story. Forecasts show modest sales growth but unclear price direction. He explains the main risks (renewal payment shock, limited rate drops, softer demand with rising supply) and the upside (pent-up first-time buyers, better affordability, more negotiating power), then outlines who should buy vs who should wait based on their situation.
Alex breaks down why 2026 may not be a housing recovery, even though CREA forecasts rising sales and prices. He argues the 1.15 million mortgage renewals, especially the 60% facing higher payments, plus rising unemployment and slower sales could create more seller pressure and more supply. His takeaway is buyers likely gain negotiating power, while sellers and renewers need a clear strategy instead of trusting optimistic industry headlines.
Trump announced a $200B plan to buy up US mortgage debt to push rates down. Because US bond yields and mortgage rates often drag Canadian rates with them, it could lower Canadian fixed rates a bit. But tariffs and the 2026 CUSMA review could spike inflation and keep rates higher, so the outcome depends on which force wins.
Canada is about to add roughly 180,000 new purpose-built rentals in 2026, pushing vacancy rates higher in major cities and making renting cheaper than owning in a lot of condo markets. The episode connects this rental “flood” with the 1.15M mortgage renewals, explaining how higher payments, falling rents, and negative cash flow could trigger more investor selling and more condo price weakness in places like Toronto and Vancouver. It closes with a decision framework for first-time buyers, renewers, and investors, emphasizing scenario math (not emotion) and why the rental surge may be temporary, setting up a tighter market again later in the decade.
Alex explains that Canada isn’t one housing market anymore, and shows how prices are rising in some provinces while falling in others. He breaks down what’s driving the split and then uses those factors to rank winning cities for 2026 versus markets he thinks will stall or decline. The takeaway is a simple checklist to spot strong markets before you buy or invest.
Alex compares today’s fixed vs variable mortgage rates and shows what the payment and interest differences look like on real numbers. He uses Bank of Canada signals and big-bank forecasts to explain why 2026 is likely a “hold or slight rise” environment, not a return to ultra-low rates. The takeaway is a simple decision framework based on your risk tolerance, budget flexibility, time horizon, and whether a hybrid split makes more sense than trying to “guess” the market.
First Time Buyers https://flowprocess.lovable.app/readyRenewals https://flowprocess.lovable.app/smartFixed vs. Variable PREPARE quiz https://flow-decision-studio.lovable.app/quizToday's episode Alex breaks down the craziness coming in Canada’s 2026 real estate market and what it means for buyers, sellers, and homeowners.
Vancouver’s rental market just hit a 3.7% vacancy rate, the highest in decades, and it’s shifting power back to renters with more choices and incentives. The spike is being driven by a wave of new rental supply, a sharp drop in non permanent residents, and investors dumping condos into the rental pool. Rents are falling or flattening now, but if construction slows and immigration normalizes, the market could tighten again by 2027.
In 2026, about 1.15 million Canadians hit renewal, but the bigger danger is many will be TRAPPED because their home value dropped and their loan to value may be above 80%, meaning they cannot switch lenders even with perfect payment history. Banks track your equity, so if you are trapped, your negotiating power disappears and refinancing or HELOC plans can get blocked or reduced. The fix is to check your current value and loan to value early, talk to a broker 6 months ahead, and consider options like alternative lenders, product changes, or extending amortization to manage payment shock.
Podcast with Ron Butler from the Angry Mortgage Podcast talks about how money is flowing out of Canada and soon Canadians might follow and leave the country.
The Bank of Canada has paused rates at 2.25%, signaling the rate cutting cycle is over and that lower pre-pandemic rates are not coming back. With 1.2 million Canadians renewing in 2026, many homeowners face payment increases of around $718 per month if they do not plan ahead. This video breaks down how to build a clear renewal strategy around today’s rate reality so you can reduce payment shock and make a more informed mortgage decision.
The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25%, but the real story is the massive payment shock coming for Canadians renewing mortgages from the 2020–2022 period. Despite nine rate cuts, households are under increasing financial strain, with many facing payment jumps of $700 to over $1,000 per month and even returning financed vehicles to stay afloat. Housing prices still aren’t responding to lower rates because affordability has collapsed, consumer confidence is weak, and the broader economy is being propped up by part-time jobs and government spending.
Canada’s latest jobs report showed a shock drop in unemployment and a surge in job creation, which sent the bond market into panic and pushed fixed mortgage rates sharply higher. Traders are now pricing in the possibility of rate hikes, not cuts, because the data suggests the economy may be stronger than expected on the surface. But most of the job gains came from part-time youth positions, raising serious questions about whether the market is misreading the strength of the economy and what this means for buyers, renewals, and anyone choosing between fixed or variable right now.
CMHC-insured mortgages jumped 43 percent in Q3, showing more Canadians are relying on insurance because saving twenty percent down has become nearly impossible. Insurance can actually be a smart tool with lower rates and faster entry into the market, but the bigger issue is the government prioritizing rentals over home ownership while arrears quietly rise. Alex breaks down how this shift affects buyers and why using insurance and amortization strategically is now essential.
1.2 million Canadians are renewing mortgages in 2026, most coming off sub-2% rates and facing $500–$600 monthly payment jumps. Fixed gives certainty but higher payments and big penalties, while variable could save money if rates fall but risks increases. The wrong choice can cost or save around $18,000. Alex breaks down the scenarios and shows how to choose based on your budget, savings, risk tolerance, and whether you might move or refinance.
Canadians have pushed HELOC borrowing to about $179 billion, rising at the fastest pace in 13 years while home prices remain flat or cooling. Homeowners are using their equity to cover rising living costs, pre-construction shortfalls, high interest debt, and cash flow gaps on investment properties, which signals mounting financial stress. HELOCs can be powerful when used for emergencies or strategic investing, but regulators warn that poor use is increasing default risk and exposing how stretched many households are.
Canadian home prices rose 0.2% in October: the first increase after eight months of declines, signaling a possible slowdown in the market’s freefall, though not a rebound. Regional markets are moving in opposite directions, with Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and the Prairies staying hot while Toronto and Vancouver remain extremely weak with rising inventory and frozen buyer psychology. Despite improved affordability from lower rates, price softness, and rising incomes, major wildcards like tariffs, population stagnation, and upcoming mortgage renewals could quickly reverse any stabilization.
Last month, the mortgage industry panicked when OSFI announced new rules that seemed to ban using personal income to qualify for investment property mortgages, but the interpretation was completely wrong. The actual change is about how banks classify risk and capital requirements for investor mortgages, not underwriting rules, meaning you can still use your income to qualify. What most people missed is that OSFI delayed implementing these rules for three years since 2022, which allowed banks to continue writing investor mortgages with minimal restrictions during a critical market period. When the new capital requirements finally kick in during Q2 2026, investor mortgages will likely cost more and become harder to qualify for, while first-time homebuyers may actually benefit from better terms.Retry
Canada's banking regulator is testing a new mortgage rule that could take effect by spring 2026, capping mortgages at 4.5 times your gross household income. This replaces the current "stress test" system where you prove affordability at higher rates. Under the new system, someone earning $150,000 would max out at a $675,000 mortgage, regardless of interest rates or other factors. High earners in affordable cities may qualify for more, while lower income borrowers and those in Vancouver/Toronto face tighter limits. Currently, only 12% of mortgages exceed this threshold, so most people won't be affected at today's rates. However, if rates drop significantly, this cap will become the main constraint. The regulator will make a final decision between April and June 2026, with possible outcomes including replacing the current system, keeping both, or modifying existing rules.
Trump’s proposed 50-year mortgage lowers monthly payments slightly but adds hundreds of thousands more in interest, helping banks and builders while hurting first-time buyers. Canada once had 40-year mortgages and could follow if supply issues persist. Longer terms do not fix affordability and only raise prices without major housing supply reforms.
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