The Flow: Real Estate and Money Show
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Welcome to The Flow: Real Estate & Money Show. The Flow is for people in Canada who are: looking to understand the homebuying process, to demystify real estate investing, and to make mortgage financing accessible for anyone. The goal here is to help people understand: ways to make their money work for them, get in the market sooner, and open up the box on how mortgage financing works.
We hope to help you find your State of Flow.
Hear something interesting? Let's Connect!
Website: getflowmortgage.ca
Alex's Social Media: @themortgagepug
Flow's Social Media: @flowmortgageco
We hope to help you find your State of Flow.
Hear something interesting? Let's Connect!
Website: getflowmortgage.ca
Alex's Social Media: @themortgagepug
Flow's Social Media: @flowmortgageco
152 Episodes
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Equity Assessment tool - https://www.getflowmortgage.ca/equity/assessmentThe headline says 450,000 Canadians missed their mortgage payments. That number is misleading, but the real data underneath it is actually more concerning. Mortgage broker Alex McFadyen breaks down what the Bank of Canada study actually found, why 2026 is shaping up to be a critical year for homeowners, and what the warning signs look like before most people even realize they're in trouble.
Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% but the rate hold is the least interesting part.Tiff Macklem basically went on TV and said he wants to cut but can't. The economy is contracting, groceries are up 30% since 2021, oil just jumped from $60 to $100 a barrel, and the average Canadian filing for insolvency is carrying $67K in unsecured debt before they've even hit their mortgage renewal.The big banks can't agree on what happens next. TD says hold through 2026. BMO says hold through 2027. RBC says a rate hike to 3.25% by end of 2027. Scotiabank is calling a 50 basis point hike in the second half of 2026 and the bond market is currently pricing in a 73% chance they're right.If you're on a variable rate, the thesis just took a hit. If you're renewing in the next 8 to 12 months, don't wait for April 29th. Rates are already moving up regardless of what the BOC does next.
MORTGAGE CALCULATOR: https://app.canadianmortgageapp.com/app/flowmortgageco Canada lost 84,000 jobs in February, oil crossed $100 a barrel due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, and the Bank of Canada rate decision lands March 18th. All three are connected and they all hit your mortgage payment.The BOC is stuck. Cutting rates pours fuel on oil-driven inflation. Hiking crushes an economy already shedding jobs. So they hold, and over a million Canadians renewing their mortgage this year get no relief.If you're renewing in the next six months, start the process now, lock in an approval while you're still employed, and don't wait to see what the BOC says.
Equity Tax Report -https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/gensqueeze/pages/6403/attachments/original/1639772589/GenSqueeze_Nov26.dat?1639772589WealthFlow Newsletter - Weekly market data & Economic Updates https://zfrmz.com/4hiodTOpjIgqNIy7fvmMThis podcast breaks down the proposed “home equity surtax” on Canadian primary residences over $1 million and explains that, despite scary headlines, it is not current government policy. Alex walks through real examples showing most homeowners would pay nothing, while higher-value homes could face annual surtaxes that are meaningful but still far smaller than a full capital gains-style tax. His main takeaway is to pay attention, especially if you own a home over $1.5 million, but not to panic or make financial decisions based on fear because this is still only a proposal, not a law.
Canadian banks are quietly slashing credit limits with zero warning, and 46,000 BMO customers just found out the hard way. Mortgage broker Alex McFadyen breaks down why this is happening, the three red flags that put your credit line at risk, and the simple steps you can take right now to protect yourself before the banks make the decision for you.
Tariffs changed, but housing is still getting squeezed. The big 35% tariffs were struck down, a new 10% tariff came in, and the high steel, aluminum, and lumber tariffs stayed. That keeps build and renovation costs rising, slows new construction, and adds pressure on supply. At the same time, the Bank of Canada is stuck because tariffs keep inflation sticky, so big rate cuts are not likely. With millions renewing from very low rates to much higher payments, Alex’s takeaway is to shop your renewal instead of signing the bank’s first offer, and watch the next key dates that could shift the outlook fast.
The federal GST rebate being discussed could return up to $50,000 to eligible first-time home buyers purchasing qualifying new construction. In this episode, we break down what it actually covers, the real-world savings most buyers will see (often closer to ~$27,000 depending on price), who qualifies, and why it could still push prices higher in some markets. We also explain how to stack the GST rebate with the FHSA, Home Buyers’ Plan, federal tax credits, and provincial programs—plus practical tips so you don’t build your plan around the headline number.
Canada was just ranked by the BIS as having the biggest real home price drop among advanced economies. Even after seven Bank of Canada rate cuts, prices and sales are still falling while listings rise, especially in Toronto and Vancouver because of condo oversupply, weaker confidence, and slowing demand. The key point is Canada is not one market, but the spring recovery narrative may be wrong in major cities and 2026 renewals could keep pressure on prices.
BC’s Feb 17, 2026 budget cuts $1.4B from housing over three years and shuts the Community Housing Fund indefinitely, while adding several tax/cost changes that make building harder. Alex says this will reduce new supply, risking a construction drought and much higher prices later, with BCREA warning up to +27% by 2032. One bright spot: a bigger PTT exemption for purpose-built rentals.
Alex Breaks down his trip in Mexico and decides if it's worth it to buy investment properties in this country.
Rates have stabilized and affordability has improved compared to the peak, so interest rates aren’t the main barrier for many buyers anymore. The market is still frozen because bigger forces are hitting demand and confidence, including major immigration cuts that could shrink population, rising rental vacancies and falling rents, higher unemployment and job uncertainty, and record-high listings. The takeaway is to stop waiting for rates to “save” the market and instead make a decision based on your numbers, job security, and a 3 to 7 year plan.
Alex explains how Trump openly said he wants home prices to rise, which protects existing homeowners but makes it harder for new buyers, and he argues this approach avoids solving affordability at the source. He compares Canada and the U.S. and says Canada’s affordability problem is worse, with housing costs taking a bigger share of income and fewer cities meeting affordability benchmarks. His takeaway is to stop waiting for politics to fix housing and instead run your numbers, understand your options, and choose fixed versus variable based on how much payment risk you can handle.
Blossom App: https://apps.apple.com/ca/app/blossom-portfolio-tracker/id1592237485Evolv Event (You don't want to miss this): https://2026.evolvmastermind.com/The podcast breaks down ETFs vs real estate for Canadians in their 30s and why the “best” wealth plan is usually the one you’ll actually stick to. It covers how most people are starting from zero financial literacy, why ETFs are exploding in popularity as housing feels harder to reach, and how social media has made money advice louder but not always trustworthy. Brandon explains why Blossom was built around transparency so beginners can learn from real portfolios, and they close on the reality that “invest the difference” only works if people truly invest it.
This podcast breaks down OSFI’s January 29 decision to keep both the mortgage stress test and the new loan to income limits. It explains why this double layer of rules can quietly reduce how much you can borrow even while arrears are low, why the same application can get approved at one lender and declined at another, and what to do if you are buying, renewing, or refinancing so you do not take the first offer and miss better options.
Alex explains why the Bank of Canada’s 2.25% rate hold is not the full story. Bond markets and bank forecasts are leaning toward higher rates, not cuts. He breaks down what inflation, weak growth, jobs, and 2026 trade uncertainty (CUSMA) could mean for renewals and buyers, and why people in Ontario and BC may face the biggest equity and appraisal risk.
Ally & Eddie contact: Ally.swopes@engelvoelkers.comThe episode breaks down why more Canadians are shifting real estate money out of Canada and into U.S. markets like Scottsdale. They explain how Canadian Airbnb rule changes, higher rates, and a weak dollar changed the “numbers,” pushing investors and developers to chase better returns, while politics (including Trump) mostly created noise but didn’t stop serious buyers.
READY FRAMEWORK to decide if you should buy now: https://flowprocess.lovable.app/readyAlex breaks down Canada’s 2026 “mystery bottom” and says it’s a regional market, not one story. Forecasts show modest sales growth but unclear price direction. He explains the main risks (renewal payment shock, limited rate drops, softer demand with rising supply) and the upside (pent-up first-time buyers, better affordability, more negotiating power), then outlines who should buy vs who should wait based on their situation.
Alex breaks down why 2026 may not be a housing recovery, even though CREA forecasts rising sales and prices. He argues the 1.15 million mortgage renewals, especially the 60% facing higher payments, plus rising unemployment and slower sales could create more seller pressure and more supply. His takeaway is buyers likely gain negotiating power, while sellers and renewers need a clear strategy instead of trusting optimistic industry headlines.
Trump announced a $200B plan to buy up US mortgage debt to push rates down. Because US bond yields and mortgage rates often drag Canadian rates with them, it could lower Canadian fixed rates a bit. But tariffs and the 2026 CUSMA review could spike inflation and keep rates higher, so the outcome depends on which force wins.
Canada is about to add roughly 180,000 new purpose-built rentals in 2026, pushing vacancy rates higher in major cities and making renting cheaper than owning in a lot of condo markets. The episode connects this rental “flood” with the 1.15M mortgage renewals, explaining how higher payments, falling rents, and negative cash flow could trigger more investor selling and more condo price weakness in places like Toronto and Vancouver. It closes with a decision framework for first-time buyers, renewers, and investors, emphasizing scenario math (not emotion) and why the rental surge may be temporary, setting up a tighter market again later in the decade.
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