The Flow: Real Estate and Money Show
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Welcome to The Flow: Real Estate & Money Show. The Flow is for people in Canada who are: looking to understand the homebuying process, to demystify real estate investing, and to make mortgage financing accessible for anyone. The goal here is to help people understand: ways to make their money work for them, get in the market sooner, and open up the box on how mortgage financing works.
We hope to help you find your State of Flow.
Hear something interesting? Let's Connect!
Website: getflowmortgage.ca
Alex's Social Media: @themortgagepug
Flow's Social Media: @flowmortgageco
We hope to help you find your State of Flow.
Hear something interesting? Let's Connect!
Website: getflowmortgage.ca
Alex's Social Media: @themortgagepug
Flow's Social Media: @flowmortgageco
145 Episodes
Reverse
Canada was just ranked by the BIS as having the biggest real home price drop among advanced economies. Even after seven Bank of Canada rate cuts, prices and sales are still falling while listings rise, especially in Toronto and Vancouver because of condo oversupply, weaker confidence, and slowing demand. The key point is Canada is not one market, but the spring recovery narrative may be wrong in major cities and 2026 renewals could keep pressure on prices.
BC’s Feb 17, 2026 budget cuts $1.4B from housing over three years and shuts the Community Housing Fund indefinitely, while adding several tax/cost changes that make building harder. Alex says this will reduce new supply, risking a construction drought and much higher prices later, with BCREA warning up to +27% by 2032. One bright spot: a bigger PTT exemption for purpose-built rentals.
Alex Breaks down his trip in Mexico and decides if it's worth it to buy investment properties in this country.
Rates have stabilized and affordability has improved compared to the peak, so interest rates aren’t the main barrier for many buyers anymore. The market is still frozen because bigger forces are hitting demand and confidence, including major immigration cuts that could shrink population, rising rental vacancies and falling rents, higher unemployment and job uncertainty, and record-high listings. The takeaway is to stop waiting for rates to “save” the market and instead make a decision based on your numbers, job security, and a 3 to 7 year plan.
Alex explains how Trump openly said he wants home prices to rise, which protects existing homeowners but makes it harder for new buyers, and he argues this approach avoids solving affordability at the source. He compares Canada and the U.S. and says Canada’s affordability problem is worse, with housing costs taking a bigger share of income and fewer cities meeting affordability benchmarks. His takeaway is to stop waiting for politics to fix housing and instead run your numbers, understand your options, and choose fixed versus variable based on how much payment risk you can handle.
Blossom App: https://apps.apple.com/ca/app/blossom-portfolio-tracker/id1592237485Evolv Event (You don't want to miss this): https://2026.evolvmastermind.com/The podcast breaks down ETFs vs real estate for Canadians in their 30s and why the “best” wealth plan is usually the one you’ll actually stick to. It covers how most people are starting from zero financial literacy, why ETFs are exploding in popularity as housing feels harder to reach, and how social media has made money advice louder but not always trustworthy. Brandon explains why Blossom was built around transparency so beginners can learn from real portfolios, and they close on the reality that “invest the difference” only works if people truly invest it.
This podcast breaks down OSFI’s January 29 decision to keep both the mortgage stress test and the new loan to income limits. It explains why this double layer of rules can quietly reduce how much you can borrow even while arrears are low, why the same application can get approved at one lender and declined at another, and what to do if you are buying, renewing, or refinancing so you do not take the first offer and miss better options.
Alex explains why the Bank of Canada’s 2.25% rate hold is not the full story. Bond markets and bank forecasts are leaning toward higher rates, not cuts. He breaks down what inflation, weak growth, jobs, and 2026 trade uncertainty (CUSMA) could mean for renewals and buyers, and why people in Ontario and BC may face the biggest equity and appraisal risk.
Ally & Eddie contact: Ally.swopes@engelvoelkers.comThe episode breaks down why more Canadians are shifting real estate money out of Canada and into U.S. markets like Scottsdale. They explain how Canadian Airbnb rule changes, higher rates, and a weak dollar changed the “numbers,” pushing investors and developers to chase better returns, while politics (including Trump) mostly created noise but didn’t stop serious buyers.
READY FRAMEWORK to decide if you should buy now: https://flowprocess.lovable.app/readyAlex breaks down Canada’s 2026 “mystery bottom” and says it’s a regional market, not one story. Forecasts show modest sales growth but unclear price direction. He explains the main risks (renewal payment shock, limited rate drops, softer demand with rising supply) and the upside (pent-up first-time buyers, better affordability, more negotiating power), then outlines who should buy vs who should wait based on their situation.
Alex breaks down why 2026 may not be a housing recovery, even though CREA forecasts rising sales and prices. He argues the 1.15 million mortgage renewals, especially the 60% facing higher payments, plus rising unemployment and slower sales could create more seller pressure and more supply. His takeaway is buyers likely gain negotiating power, while sellers and renewers need a clear strategy instead of trusting optimistic industry headlines.
Trump announced a $200B plan to buy up US mortgage debt to push rates down. Because US bond yields and mortgage rates often drag Canadian rates with them, it could lower Canadian fixed rates a bit. But tariffs and the 2026 CUSMA review could spike inflation and keep rates higher, so the outcome depends on which force wins.
Canada is about to add roughly 180,000 new purpose-built rentals in 2026, pushing vacancy rates higher in major cities and making renting cheaper than owning in a lot of condo markets. The episode connects this rental “flood” with the 1.15M mortgage renewals, explaining how higher payments, falling rents, and negative cash flow could trigger more investor selling and more condo price weakness in places like Toronto and Vancouver. It closes with a decision framework for first-time buyers, renewers, and investors, emphasizing scenario math (not emotion) and why the rental surge may be temporary, setting up a tighter market again later in the decade.
Alex explains that Canada isn’t one housing market anymore, and shows how prices are rising in some provinces while falling in others. He breaks down what’s driving the split and then uses those factors to rank winning cities for 2026 versus markets he thinks will stall or decline. The takeaway is a simple checklist to spot strong markets before you buy or invest.
Alex compares today’s fixed vs variable mortgage rates and shows what the payment and interest differences look like on real numbers. He uses Bank of Canada signals and big-bank forecasts to explain why 2026 is likely a “hold or slight rise” environment, not a return to ultra-low rates. The takeaway is a simple decision framework based on your risk tolerance, budget flexibility, time horizon, and whether a hybrid split makes more sense than trying to “guess” the market.
First Time Buyers https://flowprocess.lovable.app/readyRenewals https://flowprocess.lovable.app/smartFixed vs. Variable PREPARE quiz https://flow-decision-studio.lovable.app/quizToday's episode Alex breaks down the craziness coming in Canada’s 2026 real estate market and what it means for buyers, sellers, and homeowners.
Vancouver’s rental market just hit a 3.7% vacancy rate, the highest in decades, and it’s shifting power back to renters with more choices and incentives. The spike is being driven by a wave of new rental supply, a sharp drop in non permanent residents, and investors dumping condos into the rental pool. Rents are falling or flattening now, but if construction slows and immigration normalizes, the market could tighten again by 2027.
In 2026, about 1.15 million Canadians hit renewal, but the bigger danger is many will be TRAPPED because their home value dropped and their loan to value may be above 80%, meaning they cannot switch lenders even with perfect payment history. Banks track your equity, so if you are trapped, your negotiating power disappears and refinancing or HELOC plans can get blocked or reduced. The fix is to check your current value and loan to value early, talk to a broker 6 months ahead, and consider options like alternative lenders, product changes, or extending amortization to manage payment shock.
Podcast with Ron Butler from the Angry Mortgage Podcast talks about how money is flowing out of Canada and soon Canadians might follow and leave the country.
The Bank of Canada has paused rates at 2.25%, signaling the rate cutting cycle is over and that lower pre-pandemic rates are not coming back. With 1.2 million Canadians renewing in 2026, many homeowners face payment increases of around $718 per month if they do not plan ahead. This video breaks down how to build a clear renewal strategy around today’s rate reality so you can reduce payment shock and make a more informed mortgage decision.
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